is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters here is the "five@5. the fed pausing the hiking cycle for now. it is the outlook which is catching many investors by surprise. one investor is jeffery gundlach the market is exhibiting signs of mania and the fed is doing the same as it was years ago and more tightening ahead and china is going the other way after disappointing data

overnight. a possibilile port deal on table to get west coast goods flowing again. later, the corporate charm offensive continues in china bill gates is ready for takeoff. it is thursday, june 15th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff the hour with the u.s. stock futures futures lower across the board of course, this all after a mixed session on wall street with the dow lower snapping a six-day win streak after the jay powell press conference yesterday and the first pause in 15 months. powell signals this was not a sign of the near-term policy pivot. >> nearly all committee participants expected it would be appropriate to raise interest

rates further by the end of the year as anyone can see, not a single person on the economy wrote down a rate cut this year nor do i think it is likely to be appropriate if you think about it >> the dow may come off a whipsaw session, but not the case for the s&p and nasdaq. the former extended the longest daily win streak since november of 2021 and march of 2019. you see the dip yesterday before the close after the fed decision and looking to the rate hiking outlook described as mixed, but one investor not mixing words. jeffery gundlach said the fed got it all wrong >> the mistake s they made wher they were too slow to raise rates because they were looking at lagging data. we see signs of weakness

developing in the employment market >> gundlach adding the craze and mess of concentration at the top are far from healthy and exhibiting signs of mania. after that, look at bond yields which are the same as yesterday. the 10-year treasury close to what we saw yesterday. a bit of a rise with the 2-year treasury at 4.72 we will continue to talk about bonds later on we have to check crypto. future rate hikes with a scare in bitcoin and ethereum. bitcoin down 4%. ethereum down more than 5.5% that was the set up for the u.s. day ahead. let's see how europe and asia are reviewing the latest from jay powell and company joumanna bercetche is in the london newsroom with more. joumanna, good morning. good morning, frank. you talked about bonds we are seeing a big move in bond yields up 5 to 6 basis points which is having an impact on the

european markets you see we are dipping knock-on effect from the price action in the u.s. yesterday a focus on the fed decision. of course, today, european investors watching for the ecb decision the ftse 100 is dipping and seeing a pull back in business ic -- pull back in busineasic resources. as for asia, the nikkei has been a strong point and pulled back five points. all of the attention has been on the hang seng up 2.1%. the shanghai composite in china up .70% after weak data and the cut of the rates we are still sitting shy of

20,000 and moving in the right direction with the cyclical names and tech names get a boost from the pboc decision overnight. frank. >> joumanna, thank you very much joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom. the fed is not the only game in town with the policy decisions this week. we are bracing for another big call in three hours. the european central bank is not expected to follow jay powell's lead annette weisbach is joining me from frankfurt what do we expect? >> reporter: that is what we expect 25 basis point rate hike and some language that we are closer to the end of the rate hiking cycle. given what the fed has said and the outlook with the potential of raising rates after the summer break, this could happen in the euro area inflation is still high at 6.1% for the month of may far too high when it comes to the target of the ecb which is

close to 2% or at least 2% having said that, also the ecb has one mandate. that is inflation. they are very happy to sacrifice the economic development in the euro area for reaching that goal having said that, euro area is f in a technical recession the outlook is not looking great. the services sector is suffering from the high inflation rates. that could get much worse over the summer perio analysts they expect the holiday season will see a pick up in price in the yoeuro area. >> annette, thank you. live at the ecb. if the fed and ecb are all about the hawkish tone, the people's bank of china is cutting rates overnight after another string of data.

that is painting a gloomy picture of the economic recovery eunice yoon is joining me now from beijing >> reporter: frank, there is a lot of pessimism over here with the numbers. may data disappointed on so many fronts in terms of retail sales which is a hope that chinese consumers would come back in force after the reopening. numbers were up 12.76%, but missed expectations. the factory sector is not getting relief there because of the slowdown in global demand for chinese products a.i. is a disappointing sector the property sector is a driver for the economy here it saw a disappointing number with investment down 7.2%. sales by floor area and new construction starts and funds raised by developers looking slower than it was in april.

frank, the most disappointing and somewhat shocking data point that came out of the may set is the youth unemployment figure which hit another record at 20.8% for may. this, as you imagine, prompted the policymakers here to appear to lean to stimulus. today, you mentioned the rate cut which was a one-year medium lending rate this comes after they cut a short-term lending rate. all of this pointing in the direction of more stimulus >> those stats, eunice with questions of the economic rec recovery and does this mean there is more expectation of cuts >> reporter: every month on the

20th, everyone expects it to go down ten basis points. then there is discussion about when will the authorities here decide to cut the triple r the amount of cash on hands that the banks are required to have another point that people are talking about is when the long-term lending rate will be cut. the big question is if this will have an effect in china, interest rates don't necessarily have the same reaction among businesses as they do in the united states people make decisions not on the interest rates all the time, but somewhat for other reasons one is that there is not a lot of optimism here especially in the private sector there are many industries that have been pummeled by regulation people are feeling very, very nervous and are not spending and the economy just looks as though it is stalling >> i know it is something you

are watching closely i want to ask about a couple of things there are scheduled to be a number of businesses to beijing. namely secretary blinken and microsoft founder bill gates what do you know >> reporter: secretary blinken will be here next sunday and monday, the 18th and 19th. the hope is from the u.s. perspective is the idea of the two sides pushing open lines of communication. the other hope, of course, from investors, this is going to move the relationship with the u.s. and china past the alleged spy balloon incident and get the relationship back on track so other u.s. officials will be able to visit and maybe the

relationship will be more functional in terms of his schedule, he might be visiting president xi jinping and the foreign minister as for bill gates, a lot of discussion he might be meeting president xi jinping that is a huge deal. no other foreign executive had a face-to-face with xi jinping while he is here in beijing, he had attended an event based on health more on his philanthropic work opposed to microsoft >> thank you, eunice, great to see you. a lot to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors have to know today, but first, big money managers are scrambling after the big fed decision and

breaking down the risk with the pause and what it means for the sector under stress. we have a busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns.

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switch today at xfinitymobile.com. big money managers are on air all day of they believe the tightening is almost over. now they realize they were just wrong and need to reposition they need to do a mass amount of selling back and the number of stocks that made sense to buy if

the rates were going lower that started today if that confused, then that needs to play out the next couple days. >> that was jim cramer following the hawkish pause of more selling ahead. he sees a narrowing market by the top tech stocks. let's get more insight with janet mui. great to you have here >> thanks, frank, for having me. >> do you agree with jim cramer we could face a selloff after hawkish pause? >> i think so. we are underweight across regions in equities. we are concerned about the economic situation and the fact that the fed may have two more rate hikes raises the

probability of recession later on we, of course, are interested in that we will face more tightening in liquidity. there is qt going on there has been a slight in the fed balance sheet when svb fell. we will face more liquidity going forward. the narrow leadership in the s&p 500 rally is a concern and that is hard to keep that sustaining. there is likely to be a pull back in the market. >> you are looking at the fed balance sheet. how does that shape your thoughts about bonds we were touching on yields earlier. are you in favor of short-term bonds or long-term bonds >> we have been looking for opportunities to add to treasury bonds actually we felt that the timing is not there yet.

i think yesterday's position further reaffirms that usually bond yields tend to peak before the fed pauses. we haven't reached that point exactly. we will continue to look for that opportunity to enter u.s. treasuries for now, if rates were to stay higher for longer, i think in the short-term, you stay in bonds picking little duration risk going forward, there is most evidence the economy will weaken and if the fed pauses, it will be a good time to enter long duration to lock in the deals. >> you want to see how it plays out a bit. we are in the build-up to the july meeting what should investors pay attention to the dot plot signaling two hikes or jay powell saying the

conditions we need to see in place are coming into place. to me, that seemed dovish as well >> yeah. that left investors confused yesterday. there is contrasting things in the press release. i think we should take the fed at face value. i would not try to fight the ffe at this stage. i think more economy members are likely to stay hawkish we don't know how inflation will end. i think there is a high probability inflation will keep flowing. long the labor market is tight, inflation could stay high or accelerate the fed will take the cautious stance and keep the options open >> lu looking at the chart.

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it is 5:30 a.m. here in the new york city area we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. here is what's on deck we dig into what elevated rates mean within the markets. jeffery gundlach's warning on the potential damage coming for the markets over the fed inflation battle plan. a potential deal to end the ongoing labor standoff with two dozen ports along the west coast to get the supply chain rolling again. it is thursday, june 15th.

you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm frank holland. let's pick up the u.s. stock futures after a mixed session yesterday. s&p and nasdaq were marching to the longest win streak in months futures are in the red this after the fed opted to hit the pause bouutton on the hikin cycle yesterday, but the tightening is far from over. >> nearly all participants expect it is appropriate to raise interest rates further by the end of the year. >> you see not a single person on the economy wrote down a rate cut this year nor do i think it is likely to be appropriate. >> hawkish tone from jay powell there. the fed is not the only game in

town investors expecting a rate decision from the ecb at 8:15. lagarde and company not expected to follow the fed's lead, but expected to hike by 25 an basis points looking at the european market ftse 100 is down a bit and ftse mib is flat with the cac 40 down as well. on the flip side, the people's bank of china with a key lending rate overnight and citing more easing to come asian markets here hang seng up 2%. nikkei is flat the shanghai composite is up .75%. outside of the fed, let's get to the corporate stories with silvana henao >> frank, good morning both sides and the contract talks involving port workers on the west coast reaching a

tentative deal julie su announcing the an agreement on the six-year deal last night and exact terms of the deal have not been released. the workers union had been seeking a bigger share of profits when cargo shipments surged during the pandemic shares of cava is set to make a public debut and today after pricing the ipo at $22 per share is above the expected range. the restaurant chain is valued at $2.5 billion. shares will trade on the new york stock exchange under cava citigroup financial officer is warning the trading is down for the quarter. speaking at the conference, mark mason said the congressional debt ceiling drama weighed on the activity of the period

mason adding that citi's decision to cut 1,600 jobs for the second quarter causes expenses to climb compared to the first three months of the year >> something to watch. silvana, thank you. investors are still reviewing the latest monetary policy decision and when the ripple effects of the pause following ten trstraight increases. notall sectors are created equal and some areas are sensitive over other areas industrials and consumer staples out perform, but real estate typically cools down what does the decision mean for your money we have three experts here to break it down. stephen scouten and daniel flax and anthony crowdell is here on utilities this morning

stephen, let's start with the impact of what you heard yesterday on financials. >> good morning, frank i think for the near term, this puts incremental pressure on financials and banks in particular most of the companies we speak to were hoping for more commentary around apause as opposed to what sounds like a skip here. at least into july what we heard over the last week is that most banks feel estimates from the street are too high and deposit pressure has continued to increase in the past few weeks and the deposit balances stabilized. the costs continue to escalate if this is truly a skip and that increase is dynamic and that could impacts on the back half of the year before the decision. >> i'm looking at the kre. it doubled the market.

is that bouncing off the lows or is that how they rethink the sector >> i think it is a recovery trade bouncing off the lows. we are waiting for the general investors to come back into the group and see what the catalyst is the hardest part is trying to disproved the negative with the credit issues. i think the move we have seen so far has been a recovery bounce. >> let's talk about the commercial real estate sector. we talk about billions of dollars in real estate debt about to hit the market in the commercial market. how is that impacting the regional banks >> we don't know what we don't know in how this could become. we do believe a lot of the risk is outside of the banking sector today. he think the dynamics in the -- we think the dynamics are drastic heading into the great financial crisis

over 60% of the office cre on bank balance sheets doesn't mature until 2031 or later there will be losses it is not a cliff where everything will re-price or re-rate to 8% this year. >> a lot of of times these stocks, at least in recent weeks, trading on sentiment and reddit has been influencing the stocks with short selling n in addition to that, how does that impact the fundamentals of the banks? >> the biggest issue on fundamentals for the banks is what it does to net interest margins. profitability is likely to be weaker in the near term. if we get a pause and higher for longer, banks will make more money as asset yields re-price we need time for that to catch up we need more time.

you know, i don't think there is a drastic difference with one or two more hikes we need to reach that pause and get a couple of cuts in 2024 as we get stability the economy is actually stronger than we anticipated. it is not all bad. >> stephen scouten, thank you. turning to tech and tech stocks that do not get along, the sector has been on a tear this year with optimism over a.i. which is jeffery gundlach is offering to investors on cnbc. >> if you want to talk about the stock market, i think you have to divide it into sectors. you have the s&p seven which is the mania craze regarding anything a.i., your stock goes up 20% then you have the s&p 400 and 93 which have gotten a little

tailwind lately. as of three weeks ago, we are unchanged. the stock market is exhibiting signs of mania you have a concentrated part of the market driving the train. >> let's ask daniel flax if you agree with the theory from jeffery. >> good morning, frank great to be with you my focus is on the innovation and growth sure, you are seeing a handful of companies drive a significant amount of the performance. i think if you step back and look at what is going on, these companies like google for example, which has been spending billions on r&d and capital expense which is driving growth. the growth business and youtube is growing with the google cloud growing. it is driven by innovation and growth. >> you are saying it is not just the mania. there is more to it, more to the

businesses we have been focusing on mega cap tech, but how does the pause impact the broader sector of tech payments and medical tech and fintech. there is more out there. >> if we step back and think about the overall interest rate environment, sure, we may get another few hikes. what is most important across the sectors that you mentioned is cyclical headwinds they are facing the companies, the segments you referenced, each company will have to grow medical tech and boston scientific which we think is well positioned as you get more patients for procedures, that can help the business as one example. you have to look under the covers at each one of these. we see innovation and growth and we see opportunity >> so, certainly a lot of

excitement whether you call it mania or not give us an under the radar pick when it comes to the big rally in tech so far this year >> sure. one name we continue to like is a company called motorola solutions. you have a leadership team led by greg brown who transformed the company and expanded it from the core business in w walkie-talkies many 911 centers didn't receive text or video as an example. we see higher growth at motorola solutions expanding margin and a lot of interesting opportunities for the next two years we continue to like that name. >> that's under the radar. let's get back to the name topic. if you are an varinvestor, woul

you stay in the game >> frank, i would stay in many of them. for example, we continue to like amazon despite the recent strength ecommerce business will rebound. you will see improvement amazon web services with cyclical pressures will do better later this year microsoft is another name we like apple is executing well in the face of the difficult economy. it is about the innovation and growth. >> daniel flax, thank you. now let's head to utilities which out performed in the bear market as investors took shelter with dividend payments the sector sees inflows as concerns over earnings let's look at this with anthony crowdell anthony, good morning.

>> good morning, frank the sector hasn't had the time to highlight the defensive attributes no one is calling for a meltdown in the economy or a hard landing. so when the utilities sector grows 3.5% to 4% coupon and 10% total return where we out performed 18% this year, now we out performed 15%. now we are seeing earnings in tact they earn off investment that is not changing not many are looking for utilities stocks right now >> what is having a bigger impact on the sector the interest rates or the competition from bonds you mentioned the overall return with utilities

bonds are competitive with the dividends. >> if you invest across the cap x, you could own that bond you could own the stock that will pay a yield of 3.5% or 3.6% across the capture, you are better off with the bonds. you get no growth. growing at 6% earnings growth. investors that need to own the equity, utilities are attractive on the earnings portion, but what is weighing down is the fed raising rates and stocks going lower. the sector will continue to under perform until we get clarity that the fed is done raising rates. >> let's talk longer term. we are talking about the transition into green energy and we see the possibility of two rate hikes, how does that impact the solar energy and wind energy >> if you think about the

utilities earn, the more you spend, the more your utilities will grow. that is going to continue regardless of the interest rate cycle. also what helped is the passage of the inflation reduction act that will continue to help utilities with renewable investment i would say the pivot two years ago is the focus on esg and going green. since the invasion of the ukraine, the conversation has pivoted to energy security we are still doing renewables and investing heavily in renewables the focus is on energy security and fuel diversity you are starting to see some states endorsing natural gas fire plant to help out the broad

mix of fuel. >> give us a top pick in the space. utilities don't talk about it that much on cnbc. give us an insight on what you would advise today. >> we look for the steady growth story with the balance sheet those things would out perform the market michigan has a balanced regulatory division. michigan regulation has been very balanced. the demand is focused on growing every year you couple that with the strong balance sheet that they can weather the cycle if a storm hits the balance sheet cms and dte are the top two and still grow at 7% >> anthony crowdell, thank you coming up on "worldwide exchange," the thursday morning

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet. goldman sachs downgrading

diageo shares down fractionally this morning. different story for dominos. stifel raising the price target to $350. it will stabilize sales and continue carry out sales to the record level in the next year and oppenheimer lowering sofi rating stock more than doubling this year the compared to the s&p 14% gain shares of sofi down 5.5% this morning. coming up, the one word every investor needs to know today, plus gundlach versus the fed. why more rate hikes from the central bank could spell trouble for the markets. and june is pride month and cnbc is sharing stories with

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live shots from around the world. london, hong kong, new york and washington, d.c. on this thursday after the fed decision. time now for what we like to call the wex wrap up six stories before the opening bell

we start with the people's bank of china cutting key interest rates after disappointing consumer and industrial data the pboc made a similar move in august reuters reporting that bill gates will meet with president xi jinping tomorrow. that marks the first meeting with xi and a foreign ceo in years. siemens will invest $2 billion to ramp up production. it is making the move to gear up demand triggered by global stimulus packages. and shares in health are facing steep selling after united health group says the costs were on the rise after surgeries were increasing in older adults shares of tesla facing frpressue ahead of the open after 13 days of gains yesterday the ev maker tacking on $15

billion of value during the run. and anpetco picks by snoop with toys, treats and grooming supplies getting ready for the trading day ahead, we get quarterly results this morning from adobe and jabil and kroger. we have the ecb decision at 8:15 a.m. and we have weekly jobless claims and retail sales and philly fed manufacturing figures. those weekly jobless claims are the most important data point of the week our next guest stephanie link is from hightower is here to discuss more >> good morning, frank. >> with the jobless claims, what is your wex word of the day?

>> it is jobs. the initial claims numbers today is the most important data point. last week was a surprise to the upside at 261,000 initial claims people are looking for 250,000 today and i never really put too much emphasis in one week's worth of numbers numbers have been increasing up 10%lows. i want to keep an eye on this. this is one part of the economy which is resilient which helped the consumer and which has helped higher wages. we were going to pay attention to these numbers. >> you are paying attention. is that going to give you insight to the markets or fed decision what is the insight you get from it >> well, number one, what is happening with the labor market is it is in is inflecting highe.

we want the jobs to remain plentiful. they have been if the number is higher than 250,000, it is a tight market, but we look for changes on the margin, frank, as you know if the number is higher and we see this trend, we have to think about how that will impact the consumer overall >> stephanie, i want to bounce something off you. jeffery gundlach spoke with cnbc yesterday. he offered two more rate hikes and mania which is a sign in the market >> it leads to valuation which is scary with the inverted yield curve and fed saying they will raise further. 19 on the forward earnings basis. those forward earnings are exaggerated in a recession

>> he is looking at what you are looking at with the direction of the market and other macro factors out is side of the huge run up is the s&p overvalued? do we have concerns about the selloff coming up? >> well, i think yesterday the fed was hawkish. more than we expected. when you look at the data points we have been getting, meaning ene inflation, we see it going in the right direction. that is down from 9.1% peak. ppi down p from 11.7% peak we know that the core came in at 11.9 in the last meeting it is expected to be 3.p 5 t -- 3.5 they want it at 2%

they are not realizing it has come down substantially and we will slowdown in the economy overall. it was a surprise. i don't know if it is doom and gloom, frank earnings have stayed strong and better than expected that is because the economy as a the whole has been pretty good the atlanta fed gdp is 2.2% growth i know we will slow with the hikes. we stayed strong it brings me back to the consumer the consumer has stayed resilient. that is why we watch the job numbers on the initial claims. >> stephanie brink it full circle one of the picks you have is in the health sector. we saw a selloff with uhc yesterday. >> higher rates will help hospitals. that say positive.

i like the m&a strategy. they made an acquisition a couple of weeks ago increasing urgent care by 15% that is higher growth, frank that is higher margins stock is up 15 times it is reasonable >> zimmer bio-tech >> that is the same thing. higher utilization rates for non-essential surgery. that plays right into the hands of zimmer. hips and knee replacements they are gaining market share and increasing are margins. more than hca at 14 times, but reasonable >> stephanie, thank you. that will do it for us on "worldwide exchange. before we let you go, we have one last look at the futures still in the red this morning. it looks like the dow would open up 50 points lower treasuries had a spike yesterda

after the decision from the fed. elevated yield with the 2-year treasury and 5-year. that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

good morning federal reserve holding interest rates steady after what was it ten straight hikes projecting two quarter point hikes at this point before the end of the year. they have some time to watch the data we will tell you what it means for your money. new overnight. china central bank cutting interest rates after disappointing economic data. if you are headed for the airport, you are not alone today is expected to be the busiest travel day for air

travel since before the pandemic why? i don't know it is thursday, june 15th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick alongside joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. this was interesting watching the markets with the fed decision yesterday the markets drop instantaneously and then picked up as jay powell was speaking we don't know what will happen it could go either way in july they paused this time around and expecting additional