dethroned by modelo. >> you wonder what the net net impact is. beer is beer only a couple companies that make beer. >> there's sales decline has been huge. it's extraordinary >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell" i'm scott wapner live at the new york stock exchange. we begin with this post fed bounce for stocks. it's a big one not even jay powell's hawk talk was enough to stop the rally dow is up 500 points right now was up about 400 the most of the day. having a nice move in the final hour s&p 500 trading above 4,400. been up five weeks in a row. nasdaq up as well.

yields falling apple trading at its all-time high leads us to the talk of the tape, the fate of this rally 24 hours ago it looked dicey now not so much. what does it mean? let's ask liz young, sofi's head of investment strategy what's this about? >> one heck of a rally this is maybe something along the lines of do as i do not as i say. the fed said we'll hike two more times, the inflation fight is not over we had the terminal rate move up 50 basis points. the inflation moved up only 30 basis points the market in theory should not like that. frankly i'm not sold they're going to hike again. i don't know they're going to be able to. i think there's going to be some

kind of reckoning with the liquidity issues about to hit the market in a lot of different ways i don't know they'll have the clearance to do it again the market just keeps pushing it out. it says we believe you might do it one more time we thought july, maybe now september. i think the big issue is that the market and fed still disagree and at some point one of them or both of them is going to be wrong. i think it's going to be a painful thing. >> you're not alone. many notes out from wall street firms said, yeah, maybe one more only citi had two. gunlock said they're done also can we listen to that? >> i don't think the fed is going to raise rates again i think jay powell realizes we're at aturning point on the

inflation situation and economy. yet, there are people dedicated to lagging indicators like unemployment, labor market and looking at core cpi. it lags. >> the point here is that they're done, they're not going to hike. doesn't matter what they say that's what the market is saying today. has to be, right >> i saw that interview live with jeffrey and agree with what he said. the bull case right now is that inflation has come down in a pretty linear fashion. you could say it's less than half of what it was at its peak in june. that's a good thing. you could also say, yes, but it's still twice what the target is, which means the job is not done you have to then ask yourself, even if they're done hiking, if you believe we're in this higher for longer regime, if we sit above 5% fed fund rate, can capital sustain that can businesses get capital in

that environment we're hearing that small and midsize businesses cannot. if you chart liquidity over what happens in the stock market, particularly in tech stocks, you see it follow the way down there's a huge divergence. you have tech stocks rallying. liquidity expected to fall over the coming months. one of those two lines has to meet and the liquidity one is probably not going to come up. >> you think we're going to have a recession? what's your call on that >> if i had to answer that in one word, yes. >> so you also agree with jeffrey on that too, right >> obviously the market make-up is different today than it was 50 years ago a hiking cycle that's this steep, rarely -- maybe one time

in the mid '90s -- they've always been followed by recession. >> he's like the data we've gotten lately are all ugly >> yep. >> if not for the resiliency of the consumer, who knows where we would be right now, right? >> he's right. the leading indicators are pretty ugly. then you look at things like pmis that have been in contraction. services pmi teetering on the edge of expansion and contraction. if you're talking about the consumer, the consumer is what's affecting me today we're going to get a consumer -- >> look at retail. >> inflation is coming down. the market is up people aren't losing their jobs. if you're a consumer, you're feeling pretty good. the reality is that this probably doesn't end well. we've never seen it end well it's just that the ending doesn't seem to be around the corner. >> would you go as far as to say

the bulls are in charge for the time being >> sure. >> they wrestled the market away from the bears we're at 20% plus off the low and the bulls can keep this going for a little while. >> i thick they can. today is proof of that momentum has been a powerful thing. sentiment has been a powerful thing. if there's no big reason to stop yet, it can keep going for a while. the fomo trade is driving a lot of this. i don't think it's going to be a sustainable. i think everybody knows i didn't buy into this rally. certainly didn't call the rally this year. it can keep going as long as the wind is blowing in that direction and until something stops it. >> i'm looking at what's working today and it is virtually everything every sector in the s&p but one, discretionaries up more than 1%.

we had in j-- we bring in joe taranova what do you think? >> go back two weeks ago to june 1st, we sat here on the show and talked about three consecutive closes above 4,200 for the s&p it's the first time we've done that since august 2022 what's followed after? a very strong tech outlook i think apple has made an all-time high and i think microsoft is within a dollar of doing the same thing you have a very tenacious, powerful, momentum-driven rally. i think the resolution to that comes at the end of the quarter. >> but powell did his best yesterday to choke off the

momentum he did for a moment when he rolled out the projections, which aren't predictions by the way, and maybe the market got ahead of itself in assuming that because they made the -- they revealed the dot plot the market took it as a prediction rather than a guess and they know how the fed's been with the guesses at this point. >> yeah. i think either way you look at monetary policy right now, the words that i would use is neutral monetary policy. i think we've gone from a hawkish monetary policy to an environment where they could lean one way, they could lean the other way. whichever direction they lean, they wash it off in the near term if they raise 25 basis points in july, i wouldn't be surprised if they took them back in the next

six to nine months you restart raising interest rates and then a pattern evolves where you're raising rates once again. >> if you think we're in a neutral policy zone, then you don't believe the fed either >> oh, no. >> you can't. >> the real fed funds rate has been positive. it's been positive for two consecutive meetings and that's something that's a dramatic reversal from where it was one year ago when that was negative 5 to 600 basis points. the federal reserve has caught up. >> but you cannot think we're neutral now, which has a more positive bias and still think we need to get in a more aggressive zone you can't believe what they say if you think that. you're suggesting the fed's done by saying we're neutral. they're done now

>> i am -- i am strongly of the belief that the federal reserve is done based on what i see in the markets, not what i'm hearing from the federal reserve. i feel as though the federal reserve has been very inconsistent in their communications and in their actions. they've said a lot of things and done the complete opposite i think we're at a point where there is a little bit of a loss of credibility for the federal reserve and their overall impact on markets is going to be less the days of 50 basis points, 75 basis point hikes are in the rearview mirror. 25 bay spsis points don't concen me. >> the point being, if they follow through on where many of them see this going, it's going to be more than 125. in some cases according to a fair about of fed members, it could be three the market is like no way.

>> there's this illusion that the fact that they paused yesterday and will end the hiking cycle is somehow there's more certainty of what's going to happen. i think the uncertainty got greater. i was surprised we had a unanimous vote yesterday i think we'll start to see meetings without unanimous votes. >> that's going to get messy because powell wants to keep everybody together let me ask you this, as i mentioned the broad base move today, the knock on the market for many, many months has been it's too top heavy it's ten stocks and the s&p 490 is terrible and the 10 are amazing. utilities 1.2. energy 1.5 industrials 1.6. health care 1.6. staples 1% everything is working today.

discretionaries a little lighter than the others. make you feel better about the state of the market itself >> sure. i was one of the loudest that said this can't work this way. it's a fragile rally because it's only held up by seven or eight stocks of course i want to see broadening out that's a very good sign. it started with fervor last week you had small caps participating. that was great it's something that shows there's buying appetite in investors. it could be something that's short lived from a valuation perspective. what i think this has done is pulled some of the bears on to the bull side or pulled people on to the side that said maybe i'm not positioned if i'm positioned -- i'm not positioned to be wrong i'm convinced to buy something what do i buy? i'm not going to buy the fthing

that rallied 50% i'm going to buy the stuff that hasn't rallied yet there could be something to that maybe there's people that have sort of contemplated whether or not the bull case makes sense long term. >> joe, this is the last thing the bears want to see, right liz said it perfectly. awfully hard to be continuously bearish when the market is now starting to show those signs of, okay, maybe it's actually getting better internally. >> almost to a certain extent feels parabolic. if you're bearish, keep in mind you're coming up on the end of the quarter. if you're running a multi-asset strategy, you're going to need to rebalance the s&p is up 7% on the quarter. nasdaq up 14%. europe up 12%. you have treasuries down, high

yield up 50 basis points you'll reallocate into taxable fixed incomes and treasuries that's a multi-billion dollar rebalance. you have the probability of the july through september time period being the weakest quarter of 2023. that's your time window i believe. on the other side of that we'll have a very sharp snap back and maintain the overall trend of 2023 i believe largely a lot of that will be rooted in a strong earnings recovery. >> also, real quick, i think about today even in what is a very, very broad base move, the nasdaq from a percentage standpoint is still the ou outperformer up 1.5%. my system isn't reflecting what we're showing here nasdaq having a strong day

you can have a broad base move without a lot of tech selling. >> sure. >> you don't have to get a rotation out of tech into other areas of the market. you can still have tech be strong and still have money. maybe it's coming from the sidelines. maybe it's coming from bonds or wherever and a lot of things can work at the same time. what do you think about that as joe said, apple new high again today. >> that would be more characteristic of early cycle market behavior. if we're in early expansions, you would sea sickly calls take part i'm not sold yet i maintain i don't think this ends well, but this rally -- frankly a rally in stocks that need liquidity to drive valuations up like this, this is pretty late cycle characteristics. i'm not convinced we're out of

late cycle and it's out of transition h >> my system was a smidge slower than real time nonetheless, the nasdaq is right there today. for those who are saying, well, if you're gonna have all these deeper cyclical areas of the market most tied to the sensitivity of the economy, maybe that cools off the tech trade. that's not what you're seeing today. apple, all-time high. >> that's given the market cap waiting for apple and microsoft. natural gas is up 8% down 75% in the last year. natural gas having a rally as well it's broad based it's what you want it's technical in its nature i have to emphasize that it's not like we've had this overwhelming reporting of earnings that we're reacting to. this is technical forces. >> joe, we'll see you back in

the zone liz, thank you liz young. let's get to our twitter question of the day. will the s&p be higher or lower by the next fed meeting in late july you can head to twitter and we'll have the results later. let's get a check on top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos is in san francisco with that for us >> reporter: i am. i'll focus on tech tesla trading near the flat line after snapping its longest winning streak on record we have other ev stocks in positive territory right now this comes as chinese players rally on a demand optimism t xpeng is rolling out its own self-driving technology. nio is up over 8%, more than 20% in the last week.

we have to talk about sofi it's on pace to -- shares down about 2.5% bfig said they like the name because of the student loan payments that need paid. >> kristina, thank you kristina partsinevelos up next, shopping through the uncertainty. matthew boss is back he'll break down the consumer resilience we're getting you set up for adobe earnings we have a shareholder standing by nice move this quarter almost 3%. we're live from the new york stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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retail sales getting a boost in may showing another sign of consumer resilience. my next guest says there could be downside risks for the sector when student loan payments resume joining me now is matthew boss of jpmorgan. welcome back >> good to see you. >> your first reaction, retail sales were you surprised >> no. it was encouraging. >> you weren't surprised >> we've been talking about the tale of two halves

that's what you're starting to see play out you've seen the low water mark in retail sales. that was your first quarter. that's where you were going up a better consumer backdrop a year ago. you pulled $25 billion of government assistance from this consumer you cut their food stamps. >> are you talking about high end versus lower end consumer or timeframe of what we can do? >> both. gas prices down 35% year over year on top of that supply chains are normalized and a wealth creation s&p at 4,400, i mean, look at the high end there's some real wealth creation over the last five years. as we talk about the high end, relative to the low end, the low end right now is normalizing

they have a job. the unemployment rate is solid their wages are up 20% relative to 2019. you took money out of their pocket that could take a quarter or two to normalize that's why i think back half of the year the tailwinds will outweigh the headwinds with student loans the wild card. >> how do you explain why estee lauder hasn't done well, which is as high end as you can talk about? some of the other brands too that are within that realm i'm spacing on the name. versace and michael kors what's up with that? >> i think what you have again, if you look at trends on a four-year basis, look at the chase credit card data, it's been resilient that's the underlying trend. on a one-year basis as you look at retail sales you've seen

moderation those in my opinion are tied to the normalizing headwinds versus tailwinds and the wallet share analysis that we published earlier this week that points to the low water mark being the first quarter of this year second quarter comparisons ease. the tailwinds outweigh the headwinds. >> you have an overweight on capri. you're not concerned enough to think about your rating or esti estimates? >> i think the hand bag and accessory space you have top-line growth of midsingle digits for tapestry and capri, as you think about the consumer backdrop it's conducive for discretionary purchasing >> student loan resumption, the payment resumption, just as back to school is going to get hot and heavy.

how much of a problem is that going to be? >> you have a $30 billion swing in in flows versus out flows tax refunds at a $10 billion outflow. the situation going forward is still in positive territory relative to what the consumer faced in march and april it's an incremental headwind the question is gas prices that's a $40 billion tailwind. last year in the second quarter they were higher by 50% and you are cycling the lowest consumer sentiment last year in june. >> of your overweight rankings, the best stock on your list is what >> we spent a couple days this week with lululemon. i think the growth there is underappreciated i think you want to be tied to health and wellness and casual thatmarket is still growing. the other side of this is value

and convenience. we like dollar general we like tj maxx. you want broad retail demographics meaning you want the broadest swath to capture the low end when it turns, tied to better employment backdrop, but you want the higher income customer that has the dollars. >> matthew boss, good to see you. up next ryan dietrich is flagging a big rally into the end of july. he's going to make his case for you next as we head to break, the shares of cava it's the first day of trade for that company look at atth up better than 100% as we speak. "closing bell" back right after the break.

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the market surge could continue into july says our next guest and he has the charts to

prove it ryan dietrich, welcome >> thanks for having me back. >> we have a nice move near 500 on the dow. looked dicey yesterday after chair powell spoke why do you think this has a lot of legs? >> yeah, it's amazing. i was on three weeks ago and we talked about this surprise summer rally the economy is not going into a recession. we had the good jobs print the realization everything is going to broaden out we could see an all-time high on the s&p 500. breadth leads price. a new high there says this upward trend we've been in -- we've been overweight in equities since late december it's playing out we think there's a lot left in the tank. >> what target do you have in mind for the s&p which is holding nicely above 4,400

>> we said we could have a 15% gain i'm aware that's where we are right now. we're still overweight we think new all-time highs are not that far away. scott, we had a new 52-week high this week. over a year without a new high 15 times when you go at least a year without a 52-week higher, one week later the s&p is higher 15 times we're making new highs now that's bullish we would be a buyer of weakness. >> you're throwing a lot of stuff at me. do you think new highs on the s&p in terms of all-time high are in the cards >> yeah, we do absolutely. we're not that far away with where this rally is going. we think before this year is over it's possible with the news we keep having, the consumer is

strong, inflation is down -- i mean, there's worries. >> what do you mean? you don't sound like you have any worries. >> i have some worries we're stretched near term. the worries globally and some of the concerns my biggest worry is this, people still are not embracing this new bull market. i know people say up 20% is a new bull market. i think a lot of people are still underinvested. we see the near term potential worries. look at what the market is telling us high beta is outperforming low beta a new high is likely this year in our opinion. >> we shall see. we'll have you back to debate you on that. ryan, thank you. >> thank you. when we return, markets rallying on the heels of the latest fed move. is a july hike in the cards?

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we have oo nice rally on our hands today as you know.

nick timaros of the "wall street journal" with us now i'm so happy to have you today yesterday we weren't sure where the market was going to go were you surprised in the room when you heard the projections revealed of at least two more hikes and fed funds going to 5.6? >> not a lot, scott. obviously the expectation was that the median projection would go up by one tick. it went up by two. i think people are still digesting what it means. i think the july decision, just coming out of the may meeting there was a high bar to go in june coming out of the june meeting it feels like there's a high bar to skip again, right this idea of spacing out the increases and looking at three months of data as opposed to six weeks of data.

i think it could be confusing in the weeks ahead. if we get softer inflation data and people say, well, you didn't hike the last meeting when the inflation data looked worse, why are you hiking now they're trying to space this out and that was the main takeaway from yesterday. >> i'm going to ask you a question i'm sure you've been asked 500 times. do you think the fed is done >> it's hard to say. i mean, you tell me what happens in the economy, scott if we keep going like we've been going in the last two weeks, no. that was clear yesterday you know, things could still go wrong. i think it's hard, but not impossible, to come up with a list of reasons why the fed wouldn't go in july. weak payrolls, something -- some unanticipated shock. much more severe banking stress. it's easier to come up with

reasons for them to go again in july based off the communications and the projections they put forward yesterday and the fact that there just isn't that much hard economic data that we're going to get between now and the july meeting. >> what do you think is going through powell's mind right now? he said what he did yesterday. he certainly sounded very hawkish. he looks up and he sees the dow up 500 points. he sees a strong rally across the board and he sees rates falling. what do you think he's thinking? >> let's go back and compare to where we were right after the may meeting, right, scott? after the may meeting, you had real concerns about banks. you had the market pricing in cuts, including a 20% cut at the june meeting, which was crazy. it's a different picture today, at least on the credit side and in the bond market where you're not pricing in cuts very much

for the rest of the year that's different from may. i think powell also has company with other fed chairs when they stopped or got close to the end of raising interest rates. in 2000 the market went up after the fed was done in 2006 the market went higher after the fed was done they didn't stay at those levels forever. the whole point of monetary policy tightening is to slow the economy down i think the fed has been pretty clear they see this battle against inflation as a longer process than something that you're going to be able to achieve in a day, week or month. >> do you think he's intent on breaking something and would he push it as far as to do that in order to achieve whatever his stated goal is >> i don't know. i don't know if that's the right way to think about it. is he intent on breaking something? history shows that you don't try to break the thing that breaks,

right? you don't know what's going to go wrong nobody was really paying that much attention to risks in the u.s. regional bank sector before the silicon valley bank failure. everybody was focussed on private credit, open-end bond funds, you know the treasury market the focus wasn't on regional banks. that's the danger here once you get rates up to where the fed has gotten them and you begin to hold them there, more debt comes due, then you find out what you weren't worrying about that maybe you should have been worrying about. >> we'll leave it there. appreciate it. great having you >> thank you. we have a news alert on goldman sachs. leslie picker joining us. >> reporter: this relates to the investigation surrounding silicon valley bank. if you recall goldman sachs disclosed a few weeks ago that various governmental bodies were in touch with the firm into the

probe of the down fall of silicon valley bank. the fed and the fcc are investigating and the justice department has subpoenaed goldman. the journal cites people familiar with the matter they say it stems from a capital raise that took place before the bank failed. the journal reporting regulators are looking whether goldman's banking side and trading division were communicating about the portfolio sale which isn't typically allowed. i haven't been able to confirm the details about the investigation, but a spokesman for goldman said the firm told silicon valley bank in writing it would not act as an adviser on the sale and urged silicon valley bank to hire a third-party financial adviser. goldman has said in its 10-q it's cooperating with the investigation. an fcc spokesperson said they do

not comment on a possible investigation. we reached out to the doj and fed, but have not heard back >> leslie picker, thank you. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked will the s&p be higher lower by the next fed meeting? the results after this break a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

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♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. the results now of our twitter question, we asked will the s&p be higher or lower by the next fed meeting in july the majority of you said higher. 62% in fact. up next, we're less than an hour away from lyft's annual shareholders meeting

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>> i think this is rel sfrent a macro perspective not a micro perspective. a hard time justifying $17 to $19 pricing this monday price it at $22. opens at $42 right behind us. $43. how do you explain 100% increase in a day more than that, $17, to $19 monday. >> a lot of kcava doesn't do it. ipo drought and indicative of a macro environment. demand in general. i don't think this is so much a cava story joe you know restaurants terrible investments long term. >> all right >> shake shack, sweet cream, not great investments. >> saying because of the macro is getting better? >> hard to say the world suddenly discovered that cava is a fabulous myth i think it's a great company, growth prospects 100% one day >> not even profitable.

>> yes it has -- i think it's very likely to be profitable. >> i know, but it's not. not today. >> i agree my point, it's a macro gain here the drought so great and demand indicative of strong mack choe environment. look what we're doing here today. look, i love the fact, etf leads, disaster last year, it's leading. transports are leading today banks are leading. tesla down two days in a row. >> up 13 and leading in market cap. >> amd is up getting, starting to see a broader market staring at me. >> no. no, no, watching seeing if you're aware you're on a roll. >> on a roll >> i feel strongly, because faithly we've got some real energy here. >> feel strongly you sure >> buying interest -- i see. finally, that's what i want. i want somebody who shows

enthusiasm now we're getting it. >> a lot of buying interest, it's technical look at meta up another 3.16% microsoft rallying technical in nature to be applauded. a breakout a lot of people are still caught on the wrong side of the market under invested how do you feel in your 4 4.75 money market. >> pulling out, 4.5%. >> investing 4.5% one-year treasuries 4.5%. pulling out money out of the stock market, pulling out of savings account. it's a very good point bums believe that the people left are going to be source for the further fuel in the markets. my problem with that the bearish levels are going down look at the bank of america fund manager's survey less people, lower levels of cash aaii survey.

survey sentiment survey. bullish levels going way up. number of people dragged back into the market i think is getting smaller at this point. i agree with your point. getting harder to make that argument nt argument. >> becomes a handoff come out of the current rece recession? v-shaped snapback and reach growth end of year >> ask him about adobe since he's asking about the market i can just bail. >> go ahead. >> adobe in "o.t." what do you think? >> do you see 699 high from november of 2021 or do you see the 274 low from september of 2022 here what i know with very strong conviction. you will have at least a 5% to 6% move postearnings why? options market tells you and built up an extreme amount of high expectations. fundamentally you need to see

return of revenue growth. >> that's half of what it was. >> correct. >> right >> the last 12 months revenue growth 8% over prior 36 months it was 16% revenue growth has to come back again. the good news -- generative ai, is adobe going to participate? unquestionably they will and have this embedded platform in which 90% of fortune 100 companies are utilizing their digital solution products. integration into ai is very easy once they utilize the subscriptions. problem is the revenue contribution single digits at best. >> hold up. >> i can tell you, photo shop gay 20 years adobe $10 rest of my life. all i know. >> hold your thought. all right? deirdre bosa following lyft shareholder meeting when that kicks off. de. >> the word you used before the break, dreadful returns.

understatement since that company went public in 2019. at $72 a share it has dropped from 85% in market value losing market share to uber. founders no longer running day-to-day new ceo is a lot at stake, a lot to prove to wall street at this upcoming shareholders' meeting even scott, you feel like people talking whether lyft could be an acquisition target, it's falling so much. the key question, can they take it a company losing money and market share. >> i guess the question is, is it content at some point being a distant number two to uber >> it is. >> seems just not that plausible you could see a scenario in which they could catch up until any significant way. thinking about investors, even, who watch stock prices go in very different directions. >> yes key point. this isn't just a lyft problem his is a ride-sharing problem. note that uber stock is also below its ipo price but for lyft the problem is particularly

acute. content to remain a number two yes. in fact, the ceo told me strength in being number two first interview when taking over the job. even more problems lyft has fallen so behind. has to win market share back the question is could it actually regain a bigger position with someone else with a waymo, ever allowed to happen one possibility for shareholders who would like to recoup value, de, thanks following lyft two-minute warning approaching the close. holding on to a 400-point gain so many deception out of s&p six of them above 1% garins on the day. the others are close. >> want to see broadening out and tech slow down a bit discretionaries slow down a little consumer staples stronger. health care had a horrible month. notwithstanding what happened with american health, leaving

them out what happened to them yesterday? broadening out important new highs. only 40 today. see that happen. the problem the stock market has now is the soft landing scenario is getting stretched 19 times forward earnings next four quarters? that is not a recessionary multiple that's an expansionary multiple and the market has to argue we don't have any -- >> something to bring up and want your perspective. someone sent me. money markets saw first outflows in week ending june 14th since april 19th. >> bingo. >> another sign. my mother -- call my another now. 34 mom, what do you think? >> for bulls alls alternatives stocks take another big leg up you need money to come from somewhere to go to equities. >> right from money markets and those sitting in short-term treasury etfs that have had oceans of inflows so far this year source of fund. >> all right

so you hear it bell will start ringing in a moment dow is holding on to its 400-point gain in what is a nice bounceback of how things look post-fed yesterday s&p up better than 50 points right now. [ closing bell ] well over 4,400. 4,4s 25. sen send it into "overtime." >> score card on wall street high score welcome to "closing bell: overtime" clb. coming up this hour, breakiing from adobe software giant climbed 40% in the past month on amplt i optimism bring you numbers and expert analysis. plus, get the latest read on the fed's balance sheet following yesterday's wait decision and awaitin