your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathison coming up, we have business politics colliding in china. bill gates meeting with president xi ahead of antony blinken's business there the u.s. government seems to be increasingly worried about our relationship with beijing. plus, the s&p 500 and nasdaq hitting new highs today dating back to april of last year now that more than just seven

stocks are participating, can the rally continue >> we're getting a luke warm verdict on that today. we have the dow and s&p up fra frac fractionally. >> adobe is leading the s&p. they beat expected ratings the ceo telling jim cramer the ai offerings will make people more productive. can delta hit the sweet 16 remarkable run they're up 27% in a month. carnival also up more than 20% this week, having its best week since november 2020. no real driver this week >> kelly, thank you. two major visits to china representing two poles of u.s. china relations. business and politics. bill gates meeting with president xi who called him the

first american friend he met this year. although gates is not the only business giant to visit the country. another key meeting this weekend ahead of secretary of state blinken. tensions between washington and beijing remain high. here with the details of those visits and some back drop is eunice yoon. >> reporter: the fact that the president had to tell gates that he's the first american friend that president xi has met this year shows you how unusual this meeting was in this time of heightened tension this was the highest level, o outreach by chinese leadership to try to repair the relationship with the international community,

especially with corporate america. president xi highlighted what he thought was important for beijing and something that beijing needs, and that is technology cooperation with the united states. that runs counter with the direction that washington is heading, and that is to curb chinese access to u.s. technology now, gates' visit here happens to coincide with antony blinken's trip here. he's expected to arrive and have meetings during his trip, which is supposed to be sunday and monday not a lot of detail on who he's going to meet. the expectation is he'll be meeting with his counterpart, as well as potentially president xi now, as for exactly what's going to happen, a lot of the ex expectations on both sides has been really tamped down. the hope is that the fact that

they're communicating at all and blinken is going to show up here could mean the relationship would be able to move forward. >> curious about the bill gates meeting. president xi sounded open and happy to be -- as he put it -- meeting his first american fifi friend what about the other corporate leaders that have come through is there a reason he chose gates? >> reporter: there was a lot of speculation as to why he would have this meeting with bill gates as opposed to elon musk, jamie dimon or tim cook. it could be because the two have been familiar with each other. they've met in the past. also, maybe more importantly bill gates was coming out here as a philanthropist. he was coming here not as an

executive. could have been an easier move by the president >> perhaps, indeed we'll see if there's more to follow thank you. we appreciate it bill gates is the latest u.s. executive to visit china and emphasize its importance to american companies the starbucks ceo said there are limiting possibilities in china. jamie dimon saying while trade could decrease, it won't be a decoupling we turn to michelle caruso for more on this welcome. michelle, what's the importance of blinken's trip? >> blinken is going nearly the same time of bill gates. it shows how intertwined our

countries are. we have a deeply troubled relationship american business is in a pickle why are they going there they need the chinese economy. yet at the same time president xi has been changing the rules he's making it more difficult to do business there and he's talking about retaking taiwan, which is why antony blinken is headed there if they were to do that, it would lead to a catastrophic situation. >> michelle, you have an interesting point about how china is helping the federal reserve. i want to come back to that. before i do, i want to stay on point with patrick patrick, is blinken's visit more about making progress with china

or managing conflict with china? >> one of the main takeaways is while it's nice to have agreement, a lot of it is about managing conflict. that's exactly what the focus will be now. there's been a dramatic did he line in the relationship between the u.s. and china it's possibly at its worst level since diplomatic relations were opened up, at least at the political level. they need to bring that out of the spiral there's been talk about how it's a failed effort or doomed effort by the biden administration to go back to engagement. i think that -- i doubt that reconstructive engagement is going to come out of that. neither side is the least interested in bulging on things. the more confrontational stance

we have towards china, the more it is to have lines of communication open, to avoid misinterpretation, miscommunication those are things that could cause things to spiral out of control. >> we're talking about managing conflict and managing communication, which has been so polluted -- let me use that word that's dangerous >> there's a real concern within the national security establishment in washington, d.c., about the lack of communication between our two militaries when that's not happening, then things -- you can have accidents. this is why henry kissinger has been banging on about getting a red telephone between the u.s. and china. other members of national security say it's called email and cell phone they don't answer. it's quite concerning. that's the basic goal, try to make sure we can communicate when something happens, we need to talk to each other to avoid

accidents in war >> keep in mind, this is taking place after a series of canceled meetings blinken was supposed to go in february then there was a spy balloon episode that made that impossible secretary of defense austin was supposed to meet with his counterpart in singapore that didn't happen there's a sense that those lines of communication have been absent. >> the lines of communication that are open seem to be the business world who's the tail and who's the dog when it comes to america businesses in china? are we better off if they forge ahead with expansion there even when people are advising more compa companies to leave do we want them to deepen ties

>> it's an interesting point these companies are in a difficult situation. the talk in d.c. is about decoupling, reshoring. some companies can do that for a lot of companies they're in china pfor the chinese market and get a lot of revenue from china. they can't just disengage. they're concerned about not just the geopolitical risks, but also about the business climate in china and how things are turning. just in the past day or so aiib the infrastructure bank in china, a canadian who worked for that bank actually fled beijing because he was critical of the role of the communist party and had to sneak out of the country. there's a lot of concern about the business climate in china, the safety of professionals, foreign professionals working in china, that business leaders try to put a happy face on

>> michelle, i want to come back to the point i signalled earlier. the weakness in the chinese economy has been a good friend to the u.s. federal reserve. explain. should we then be rooting against the chinese economy to prosper. >> the weakness in the chinese economy has helped the fed if we had got that post covid boom that everybody talked about, where would commodity prices be? they would be way up the fed and the ecb would have to be stronger for longer if that happened. that's the silver lining there i think, you know, do we want to root against the chinese economy? not necessarily. i think we were happier when they were what i talked about, reforming the economy so there was more market forces within that economy the thing is, free markets can lead to free people. you have to ask does the chinese communist party and xi want free people i think the answer is no

you have to start making choices and you choose control over people and the economy instead of allowing for the freedom that led to 15% growth. note this. they announced a stimulus yesterday. they leak it to "the wall street journal. what did commodity prices do they yawned. ten years ago that would have led to a rally that's not the case anymore. >> that's what makes it difficult for american businesses thank you both coming up, bulls and bears and bubbles. the market seems to be lost somewhere between fantasy land and reality. it's clear we aren't in kansas anymore. all signs pointing to a slowdown in the mid to long term. after months of recession talks, suddenly the new rallying cry not a recession. we'll discuss that next.

first, a quick power check on the positive side of the s&p. corning up 4%, getting an upgrade to buy humana down nearly 4% after a warning on insurance costs we'll be right back.

welcome back to "power lunch. it's been a winning week on wall street investors getting pause in rate hikes they hoped for as well as

encouraging inflation data some market milestones made this week including the s&p seeing its best performance since march. it's the fifth positive week in a row and up 26% from the bear market low in october. how much longer will the rally last two guys who know to the minute. let's talk a little about the question that was sort of dangling in the air as we ended the last conversation. that's the possibility of a recession in the united states it has been talked about not going to be 2022 2023 first half 2023. second half of 2023. now maybe 2024 what do you think? >> if you looked at the yield

curve starting in november last year, the first month by that math would have been may that we could have entered the recession. it could be as late as 15 months later. the economy is softening to an extent i don't think you can make any uniform statements about the state of the economy there are different silos operating at different speeds in ways we haven't seen in quite a while. >> jack, let me ask you this, can you get inflation down to where the fed wants inflation to be without crushing housing inflation, rents and house prices and if you do that, don't you almost by definition have to put a lot of people out of work and cause a recession? >> yeah. there's new studies that say not necessarily. there's a fed study that says the linkage between wage growth and inflation is not as tight as we originally thought.

we may not have to kill the jobs market in order to quell inflation. i like the trend that -- look at the relationship between cpi and ppi. >> it's interesting about that the former fed vice chairman talked about a relatively arbitrary 2% inflation target for the fed. go back to 1960. the average inflation rate was 3.8% whether we should be at 3 or 2, whether you can risk 1 if you drive the economy into recession is an open question. going back to 2 is just, okay, why? >> we should mention it took them a very long to get -- it took until 1995 until we got to target after the inflation we saw in the '70s and '80s

jack, maybe you can react to that does the fed itself expect to get to that target >> i don't know if they can get to 2%. all things being equal, if the fed were to pause here, we could get easily into the 3s by year end. like ron said, as we were modelling portfolio inflation growth, we used 3% i'm not suggesting necessarily the fed needs to back down and get off that 2% target yet i think that we're navigating our way back there pretty well on our own i think we can do it without killing the job market. >> why are equities doing what they're doing? >> earnings estimates are going up rather than down. inflation is coming down and in many ways coming down aggressively when you look at six-month

rates, they're all moving back towards 2% the markets be believe inflatio becoming self-directing. then you have the ai boom going on that's driving a handful of stocks significantly the nasdaq 100 is up 38% year to date >> that's crazy. >> it's close to the pace we saw in 1999 for the nasdaq itself when it went up 89%. i'm not saying it's a bubble, but certainly we're starting to discount different things than a horrific recession, inflation that can't be beaten michelle was right, china's exporting deflation and that's a big help. >> jack, the last word to you. does this rally which has legs as far as i'm concerned. it looks like a new bull market. does it continue

>> i think it does i think it's not going to be led by the seven largest stocks in the s&p. i think we're going to get a broadening keep in mind the average stock on the s&p is flat year to date. i think the catalyst is going to be once the investors believe the fed is done, then we start to pass the baton to international large caps japan is actually beating the s&p year to date if we see a weaker dollar, broadening and nondollar large caps lead the way higher -- >> it's interesting that given the discontinuity in global economies, japan is up and europe is up you've seen global markets x china do quite well. >> gentlemen, thank you very much coming up, with concerns that household savings could get

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welcome back to "power lunch. the nasdaq is lower today. we've seen a huge tech rally and the money is following the momentum more than $1 billion in net tech flows, that according to our partners attract insight the qqq is up 4% for the week. other tech etfs seeing similar gains. there you see the numbers. pretty impressive. better than 4% across the board there. >> that's even with some firmness in bond yields. let's turn to rick santelli. he's here on this friday in chicago. hi, rick. >> reporter: hi. wish i was there actually. it's been such an exciting week. every day we find another nugget that potentially has fed implications today it was the one-year

outlook on the michigan university sentiment survey. 3.3% the inflation outlook was at the lowest levels since march of 2021 we had a response in the market place. look at the twos and tens. most likely it changed the course of the day. even though yields are higher, they're not as high as they would have been. if we look at the week in general, right now is 472 up 7 on the day they're up a dozen on the week if you look at tens at 376, they're up 4 on the day, but only 2 on the week that's very important keeping perspective. we've seen inversions on twos and tens right now minus 95 we've been there we've done that. three months ago was march open the chart up to 1980. minus 107. it's important to understand the

horse power on some of these moves has been on the short maturities the bank ban didn't do anything. the european central bank did. that accomplished putting that cross-trade spread at a 15-year disadvantage to the japanese kelly, tyler, back to you. tyler, have a very good father's day. >> same to you, rick let's get to kate rodgers for the cnbc news update. >> reporter: daniel ellsberg has died the "washington post" said he died at the age of 92 from pancreatic cancer. the disclosure of the pentagon papers deepened the u.s. divide over the vietnam war it was known as the watergate scandal. the american woman accused

of helping to kill her mother in bali nine years ago changed her plead to guilty. heather mack was convicted of helping her then boyfriend murder her mom so she could gain access to her $1.5 million trust fund she was set to go to trial in the u.s. in august for conspiracy to commit a murder in a foreign country. she will now be sentenced in december. president biden travelled to connecticut this afternoon to speak at a gun safety summit it comes on the one-year anniversary of the passing of the first significant piece of federal gun safety legislation in three decades the law strengthens background checks tyler, back to you. >> kate, thank you. ahead on "power lunch," there's two paths ahead for regional banks in america. there are the survivors and the second are victims of flaws which they created and will

continue to live in the shadow of that crisis until a serious change is made to the industry in some ways it all depends on how they deal with new risks emerging in the commercial space, the lending industry and the overall economy. we'll discuss that witour h friend, the ceo of valley bank, next (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business.

welcome back to "power lunch. it's been the three months since the collapse of silicon valley bank sparked a global banking crisis as the turmoil continues to ease, some of the smaller firms have climbed back, including valley bank which is up over 23%. let's bring in valley ceo ira robbins. "the wall street journal" had a regional bank forecast saying they face years of trouble do you agree with that >> i disagree. when i look at events that transpired, how much of what we're dealing with is cyclical and how much is structure?

wheni think of the cyclicali issues, i think about whether or not we're going into a recession. then i look at the structural issues that may have long-term implications structuring the too big to fail and what that does to us and our ability to gather deposits is something we should look at. from a broader perspective the speed of money today and the movement of that money is something that all banks need to look at, not just regional banks. >> your ban sacrk is healthy your deposits are stable and diversified. why are so many people so worried? not about you and your bank, but regional banks. >> it's natural going to the cyclical issues. my biggest competition isn't the

bank next door it's the federal government offering 5%. that's where deposits go to. i think, once again, the concern about what happens going into recession, a lot of commercial real estate fears, those are issues impacting valuations. when you look at the forward earnings, we're trading at nine times forward earnings the s&p is trading at 18 times forward earnings five years ago we were right on top of each other. there's a lot of consternation with regard to regional banks in general. i believe they're cyclical issues. >> ira, i've been excited to talk to you. when i looked through bitters, there popped up valley bank. was it a pricing issue would you look at other assets if they come available down the

road >> yeah. it's a wonderful opportunity for organizations like ours. we've been around for 96 years we never had a losing quarter. we have a diversified portfolio. we have a wonderful franchise. as we think about what's happening today, if there are banks that will be troubled, i think valley and other peers like us have a tremendous opportunity to increase franchise value and increase our value proposition. we were bitter on svb. didn't work out, but it was a wonderful exercise. >> i have to wonder why you want it if that prize is zero, you take over a bank that's underwater and made a bunch of mortgages at 1.5, 2, 3%, has a bunch of securities that are -- i don't know if you move them. explain to me how you would have

created value out of an economic franchise that appeared to not have any. >> a lot of the focus was on liquidity. our bid wasn't a traditional bid. it was an all bid. we partnered with a lot of other firms to take the assets we weren't comfortable with we do certain things very well sticking within that footing is important to us. we were only taking the assets we were comfortable with it was a much smaller size than what the entire book looked like we had partnered with some tremendous firms to take down the rest of the assets we would have been left with a tremendous amount of liquidity as we look at our clients and our ability to put the money back into place, it would have been a tremendous win for everyone. >> you mentioned earlier that the federal government is your depositor competition. they're paying so much how have you retained deposits

at roughly the same level in the face of that competition have you raised deposit rates to retain those >> we have raised deposit rates to be competitive with our peers and with the federal government. i think a lot of people still want to do business with regional banks there's too big to fail and what that impact is we were up 16,000 more checking accounts just this quarter alone versus last quarter. people want to bank with regional banks they like the relationship they like the ability to serve their clients and invest back into the communities we serve. it's difficult today based on where the interest rate environment is regional banks are here to stay. unfortunately right now there's a barbell approach within the system a lot of too big to fail and a lot of the too small on the other side of the barbell. only a handful of regional banks

and there's a real value proposition and we provide a tremendous service to the overall economy. >> ira, thanks for joining us today. >> thanks so much. have a great day. still ahead, picking up the pieces we'll hear from a fintech player scooping up silicon valley bank's former clients. as we head to break, june is pride month. cnbc is recognizing it all month long we're sharing stories of corporate businesses. >> the lgbtq+ community is not a monolith there's lots of letters for lots of reasons those letters and identities intersect with race and ethnicities and disability really focusing on setting an environment where people feel like they belong and feel safe being themselves that's what companies can do to make sure that people can show up as their best selves.

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an active area in software john fortt talks about a software driven options to startups >> companies raised $1.5 billion and expanding into offering bank and expense management services. enrique is young, but has been in business for a long time. he began in brazil when he was barely a teenager. while he built his engineer skills, he met other kid coders online once a new acquaintance offered to help him solve a complicated problem. >> we went to messenger. i was like do it he did it and it was perfect i was like, how old are you? he said, i'm 11. i was like there's no way. i'm 13 and there's no way you're 11 and you're writing programs like this.

i was like, turn on your web cam. he was like, i don't have one. years later i started my first company and i asked my partner who was your first coder he said i met him online and didn't believe him about his age. turns out he was actually 11 and he became our first engineer. >> still to this day working with him the weekend of the silicon valley bank collapse enrique worked the phones calling ceos trying to arrange emergency credit lines his gut sense was that by showing brex could help them, he would attract deposits he said it did work. they recently each hit $100 million in annual revenue. regional banks are interested in partnership with brex he said to

punch above their weight. >> we can be competitive with larger banks we're seeing a lot of demand for our empower product. it crossed over 100 million in revenue. it's our spin management plus hard product it's car expense and travel all in one place from customers from early startups all the way to door dash and indeed we've been partners with some of these banks around how can we provid provide what we're good at so it enables you to be competitive. >> you were talking to valley bank about how they need technology there are a lot of well-funded startups tackling spin management and banking companies have been more eager to spread deposits around. i think in the next couple years

we're going to get a lot of disruption. >> explain to me again what he does, what his company does. >> they do corporate cards if you're a small business, your employees can have cards and you can have a deal on that. >> a card to use for expenses? >> exactly >> it's issued by a bank, not by him. >> he helps the regional banks so the regional bank can offer it through brex and it's easy for them to do it that way. >> a lot of companies have those now, larger companies have it with larger credit providers it might help the smaller company and the smaller bank. >> trip action just launched this capability as well. they're close to being able to go public.

he doesn't think they're getting the multiple now they would like you have players like that moving into the space. ai is playing a big role here. you can rig up ai so it auto populates your restaurant expense with the people in your calendar who were -- so ai can pull that information. i would like that. >> i have to better about my calendar. >> i'll be careful about who i put in my calendar. >> john, thank you. >> happy father's day. >> same to you. delta airlines riding a record 15-day winning streak and announced its resuming its dividends. it suspended it in march of 2020

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time for our three-stock lunch. palo alto networks will join the s&p 500 on monday replacing dish networks gina sanchez joins us here with our trades gina, what do you think of palo

alto networks? >> we love them. we've owned them for a while if you own it, keep owning it. the challenge with this is that they have had tremendous, blistering revenue growth. it's in line with everybody expanding. and so you're seeing a lot of names, you know, a lot of these names getting a lot of traction. so, you know, checkpoint, you know, all of the competitors are doing it, but quite frankly, palo alto networks is just out ahead above the rest, and they have been growing tremendously and so not surprisingly, their valuation is tremendously high >> well, tremendously high is definitely reflecting both their rally and some others lately what about sofi where analysts are saying that's also tremendously high? they're getting downgrades, and saying the recent rally has run its course even though they in the long run think that student

loan moratorium will be a positive do you like it >> so look i'm actually not as positive on sofi these are two very different stories. palo alto networks have sort of the trends working with them, and this is a secular trend, not, you know, not something that's happening alongside the sort of economic environment sofi on the other hand, they have things going for and against them the student debt moratorium will be a positive for them it will also spur their debt holders to potentially refinance into new products, and so all of that is definitely a positive. the negative for them is that as the stress on the banking system really started to ramp up and you saw a lot of small and regional banks pull back on lending, you saw a lot of personal loans start to kind of roll over to sofi as a lender, and so that loan book has expanded as we're going into a

slowdown here's what you are going to figure out over the next six months is how well -- how well underwritten were those loans? that's a question mark right now, and that's really where the achilles heel is with that as that loan book gets bigger, you have more exposure to the slowdown that comes with the economy. >> all right let's do a quick thought on our last one which has been on quite a run in terms of the number of days -- consecutive days it's been higher, though that looks like that streak might be in jeopardy delta airlines, what do you think? >> so delta airlines has -- has definitely, you know, pros and cons we own delta airlines. part of the reason is that you have seen air travel really finally start to come back, you know, this one took a while to finally, you know, get some action, you know, but hotels came back very quickly, and now you're starting to see growth in the air travel space and delta is definitely benefitting from that, and the outlook by the ceo

is very, very positive, and obviously the summer is their strongest season just, you know, as a matter of annual sea seasonality, and this is all very good, but most economists are expecting that sometime -- sometime toward the end of summer, beginning of fall, we're going to start to go into a slowdown so the question is, does this, you know reopening and reemergence of air travel, how does that -- how does that square against the slowing in the economy, and eventually pull back in spending and pull back in budgets >> all right gina, before you go, we got to check those stock draft standings. gina and wnba star diamond deshields, you're in sixth what were your picks there we go. paypal, alphabet alphabet's been a monster. >> absolutely. paypal has been the lagger

we picked the best and the worst stock right now in the 20-stock pick, however, we think that paypal has a chance of recovering as we get to the end of the recovery which is right around the time we should finish a across the finish line this is a marathon, not a sprint. >> we appreciate your time today, gina sanchez. a potential strike could disrupt your home deliveries michael jordan's shaking up the nba, and the kid's birthday party stayple that's growing popular with adults too. it's all coming up with "power lunch. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity.

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welcome back a ton more stories to get through. three minutes left in the show let's get right to it starting with the latest from the world of elon musk at a tech event in france, he weighed in on a bunch of his products tesla, he said the company is based on solving autonomy. twitter usage is at an all-time high, and he stressed the need for ai regulation. he also had lunch with the only person richer than he is, at least publicly that we know of >> i wonder what they talk about when they get together like that i have to say i'm a bit of a skeptic on autonomous driving. i'm not sure how much people are going to trust those cars. >> as am i overpromised and underdelivered a lot on that front so far. >> we shall see. a potential strike that could disrupt the delivery

industry if no deal is reached by august 1st, the company says it remains there confident there won't be a strike this time, but this would be another wrench in the package delivery space. >> it watch it because it tells us those wage pressures aren't gone the labor market tight. michael jordan is selling his majority stake in the charlotte hornets. we don't know the stake on the sale, but he paid $275 million for his stake. the sale values the team at $3 billion >> he's got two people he's selling it to, gabe platgen and rich schnall this will leave every team without a black or minority wager. hotel suites and connecting rooms, not just adjoining rooms.

more families and friends opt to travel in larger groups. hilton says the booking rates if con -- for connecting rooms jumped year over year the connecting rooms actually have a door between these two rooms to so the kids can be in the next room. adjoining rooms means that the room is just next door with no connecting room. >> i like the ones that have the connecting one you have to make sure it's locked from both sides >> yeah. >> hotel stocks have been weak lately it's something to watch. the airlines are taking up the cruise lines not the hotel. >> here's my favorite story. you read it. >> i don't really -- bouncy houses are big business for kids. every weekend i'm at them, like, four times for birthday parties. i really am. apparently adults want in on the fun. i'm not one of these adults. "the wall street journal" says they're popular with grown-ups, weddings, and even company

outings. >> people are having a couple of beers and then going in and jumping and bouncing around on one of these -- >> maybe if we get a couple of drinks. >> i can't imagine anything more just -- >> i don't want to bounce around in anything. >> no. oh, my back, my legs thanks for watching "power lunch. have a great father's day. >> "closing bell" starting right now. welcome to "closing bell," everybody. i'm brian sullivan in for scott today, and as always, live from post nine at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with wall street looking to close out a big week investors cheering on the pause in hikes they were looking for it from the fed and they got it. not to mention, some encouraging inflation day, and that has some strategists pivoting bank of america admitting they were too pessimistic, but still holding strong this is not the shiny bull market without problems that some people seem to think it is all right. here's your scorecard with 6