>> we're looking forward to that scott, thank you we're also looking forward tomorrow, powell testimony, two days on the hill starts tomorrow earnings after the bell tomorrow, kb homes >> yeah, and this market action has been wild. tesla up 5% today. >> all right, that's going to do it for "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," while stocks take a breather from the recent rally, a new face to our desk is all bulled you. plus, beijing blues, chinese stocks getting hit hard as fears grow that consumers there are tapped out but one market watcher sees potential green chutes on the horizon. and the impact of an animated muss on disney, and a first look at jim cramer's one-on-one as he goes behind the wheel, literally, with ford's ceo jim farley from fast cars to "fast money," i'm melissa lee, live from the nasdaq market site our special guest tonight,

savita we begin with a rough start to the market major endindices down dow closing off the lows of the day. the s&p and nasdaq dipping less than half a percent. emergency slidi energy sliding more than 2%. this after the major indices all hit multi-month highs last week, but even as the rally seems to be stalling, someone on this desk tonight is more bullish than they have been in at least a decade and that person is our special guest tonight, savita. so, why more bullish than you've been in a decade >> well, i think the market is more rational than it's been in a decade, which is great news, because we're finally done with this sort of experiment of zero interest rates, we know what the fed is going to do, we're off of a zero bound we have five percentage points of latitude to ease our way out of the next recession. i think that we're at a place where visibility, you know, kind

of transparency is better than it was over the last ten-plus years. now, in terms of returns over the next ten years, maybe they're a little lower than what we've enjoyed, you by think they are driven by the right stuff. productivity, efficiency, companies are doing all the right things right now, and i think it's kind of interesting to see corporate america adapt to this weird world that we've lived through. so, that's why i think that we've got a lot -- a lot more rational of a market setup today. >> some might point to the rally in a.i.-related stocks -- >> that's not rational. >> that's sort of bubbly and we had cava debut last week and doubled in its first day of trading. it's a mediterranean bowl company. >> parts of the market are still? a little bit of a bubble-like territory, but i think that where we are in terms of the broader economy is that, you know, the areas that have been starved of capital for the last ten years are -- you know, all

the problem children of 2008 and 2009, like big, you know, banks, big banks, not small banks, when you look at energy, industrials, these companies haven't done what they normally do in this economy is spend and create capacity they have gotten very rational commodity companies have gotten supply discipline. i feel like old economy companies have learned how to survive without capital, and actually look pretty interesting at these levels. >> so, by the way, welcome to the desk, and -- >> thank you >> we referenced the movie "stripes" on the way in -- >> we did? >> we did. fast cars and "fast money," of course -- >> oh, okay. >> so, the markets are more rational, or is it that they're less irrational? >> maybe that's the right way to say it >> we were so irrational in terms of positioning, sentiment, at the end of last year, and some of that's just -- all that, some of the technicals of the market, positioning, sentiment, and we talk about that, that's

part of the rhetoric >> yeah. >> but then i also hear you saying, really, when it gets to fundamentals a lot of the people that think the a.i. stuff is er rigsal, is it because it's not going to usher in this massive tech spend sounds like you think that it might. >> i think a.i. is complicated, but it's not just a tech story, which is what's exciting about it it's the idea that companies have been clunky and haven't really fixed themselves in a long time, have the opportunity to get leaner and lighter. i mean, i think what's interesting is that labor productivity just stalled out for the last ten years >> right >> because companies didn't have to think about where they were going to generate earnings from. they had free capital, they could just buy back their stocks, so they had this low-hanging fruit of low quality earnings growth. and today, what we're seeing is a.i. is just part of this whole efficiency, automation, you know, doing more with less theme that i think is going to be

really bullish for corporate margins. so, the question is, what's worse? getting off of globalization, which we seem to be doing, paying a higher cost of capital, but also kind of writing our business models and really thinking about permanent productivity growth. and what we found in our plot work is that the market assigns a higher multiple to companies that are focused on efficiency and productivity rather than just cost-cutting and kind of financial engineering. so, i think that's exciting. that's why i'm bullish again, you know, i think -- there are parts of the market that are irrational, but i'm nono tech analyst and our tech analyst believes this a.i. theme is strong, it's a long-tailed theme. companies are going to have to spend on a.i. just to stay alive. tech companies are going to spend on a.i., old economy companies are going to spend on a.i., everybody is so, it's not just, you know, a one-theme market, but i think the productivity gains are

really what i'm more excited about. >> you just mentioned the old economy stocks that have learned how to maybe manage their business better, but i look at the fed's balance sheet and look at it going from $4 trillion, $9 trillion, now it's back to 8.4 i wonder how well they had to manage just how much accommodation, fiscal and monetary that's existed, and i feel like some of this could be a mirage and this a.i. story might have come at the perfect sort of time, if you think about it, when we were seeing data that is slowing for the broader economy, and we're clearly seeing it across the globe, europe right now, and obviously in china >> yeah, so, data's slowing, and i think we are in a credit cycle. i totally agree with you i worry about the companies that have been inflated by fed balance sheets but what's interesting is, when you look at the companies that have seen the largest multiple expansion from just the fed buying everything, those are growth stocks. those are tech, those are, you know, smaller growthier

companies with longer duration that need capital to survive but most of the s&p 500 is actually generating free cash flew i worry about the zombie companies that have been kept afloat by just free money, but i don't think those are as acute within the s&p 500, and when you look at the real long duration companies like, you know, communications services, new media, they're actually doing the right things they are cutting costs, returning cash to shareholders, they're basically shortening their duration risk, like, if you think about this as a bond investor, what these companies that had great growth way out in the future are doing, they're giving you a coupon right now. >> my point is more that we'val che alchemied out a recession. all of this liquidity has put that off and given a lot of companies that might not be trading at the valuations where they are, that not, you know, they're doing just fine, i guess

is part of the point >> potentially here's my view, and nobody agrees with me on this, but -- >> we'll see, hold on. give us a chance >> well, i think that real rates are actually going to move higher from where they are now, and what's interesting is that when real rates move higher, the equity risk premium almost always moves lower, so, you actually want to be in stocks and you wasn't to be in high bayda stocks in an environment where real rates -- >> can you explain that? because on some level, you know, when i think higher real rates, i think, on some level, it make it less valuable >> right, but when you look at actually the cost of capital for equities over time, what's really remarkable, and what i was surprised by the kogs of equity stays relatively stable and there's this tradeoff. so, what happened last year, right, it felt like a horrible market, but high beta stocks did really well, or the growthier

areas of the market derated. so, that's why i think it gets interesting. we're all ascribing this value to defensives and quality, because we're going into a recession, but meanwhile, what's actually really cheap and disciplined and it has the potential to return capital are, you know, cyclicals that have basically gotten very lean and have supply discipline it's a very weird argument, but what we found -- i think this is where the plot work helps, because we've really found this very strong relationship between equity risk premium and real rates. and i think the reason real rates move higher is actually bullish, which is productivity and we've seen this time and time again whenever we get productivity gains in the economy, we see real rates move higher so, it's kind of a good story, it's not all bad out there >> so, you're the most bullish you've been in ten years, target is 4300 -- >> i think there have been better points at which to enter the market, and back in 2011, we were really bullish, because the

market was so dirt cheap today, it's not as cheap, but i think there are parts of the s&p 500 that look incredibly attractive and the underlying -- like, the thing that's obscured by megacaps is, if you take out the 50 biggest stocks, the p.e. of the s&p 500 x-50 is 15 times earnings, which is low i think there are value opportunities, but they are being obscured by the a.i. bubble >> the real call, because we are above your price target. >> we are. it is hard to keep up with this market >> when you raised it, you were above your price target at that point in time, which had been 4,000, or -- >> we raised it before it cleared our target, but we had, like, a week >> exactly it's hard to catch up with this market >> yeah. >> but the real call here seems to be going, if you had to choose between s&p versus rsp, that the choice would be -- >> equal weight. absolutely i think the market just broadens out from here.

i think what we're seeing right now is, you know, i mean, it's not necessarily a bubble in tech, some tech companies are going to do great, others aren't but i think where we are now is a pretty good setup for the actual economy we've been waiting for this recession for six quarters now ever since the beginning of last year clients have been getting more and more bearish and more and more positioned for this impending recession. our economists were forecasting a recession two quarters out with a peak to trough decline of 0.8% gdp >> no biggie whatever >> that's kind of a nothing recession, it's like a soft shallow recession, you know, we're seeing negative earnings growth, but i think this year we could see maybe minus 5% earnings growth, as long as demand holds up. i feel like things aren't as bad as one might paint it. >> and i could not agree with this more. this is really what we've been saying really all year

>> it's so nice to hear. >> she even said no one's going to agree with me, by the way so, here we go -- >> but we do find that with a lot of our clients, they come to us and they are overweight the s&p and the tech companies but i think what a lot of people don't realize is how, yes, the markets have been doing fantastic this year, yes, they're into new bull market territory, but yeah, take out the top couple of the stocks and the rest of the s&p is really just getting started right now you haven't missed out on the rally. it is just now broadening. and there are a lot of areas that are really great value. you say this perfectly >> so, when you say, you want to be in high beta stocks, when typically you think of high beta stocks, you think of technology. here you're really talking about beta that will exist in other sectors, is that -- >> right, absolutely so, what's interesting is that tech used to be high beta and now it has dropped in beta, it's now considered kind of defensive, like, software companies are defensive.

i don't know about that. maybe they're not. software companies are going to have to spend a bunch of money on chips and a.i. in order to remain competitive and remain alive. i think what might be more high beta today are energy, materials. i think today morning, the housing starts number was a sign that we could be in for a pretty good period for commodities, lumber, metals, et cetera. it's not just about china, it's also about what's happening here in the u.s and we've underbuilt single family homes, we've underspent on, you know, manufacturing capacity, and those are themes that we're starting to see companies really break ground on >> here's a question i really want to ask. as a strategist, you start out and you have to put out this year-end forecast, you know, 14 months before the next year ends -- >> indeed. >> which is really hard, so, you know, when you put that initial target out, you thought there was going to be a recession. i'm wondering, do you say, it's

time for me to rethink the thesis what was that light bulb moment? was it just that the markets were shooting higher and you're like, i can't miss out on this >> i don't think -- it wasn't just momentum. it was the idea -- even at the beginning of the year, we were looking at sentiment measures and positioning, and it was like, the most consensus call was, you know, be out of stocks in the first half and then buy them in the second half. and that was what everybody was saying and you know, so, we looked at this, we thought, okay, the risk is that it does the exact opposite and here we are at the beginning of the second half i think there could be some downside race income the overall index, but what you want to do is stay long the equal weighed index. >> well, lucky for us, savita is sticking around. let's get to an earnings alert on fedex those shares are dropping after hours, off lows after the company missed revenue estimates and said it is still facing a challenging demand environment that conference call is under way right now. frank holland's got the details. frank? >> reporter: melissa, just

listening to the call now. the ceo saying soft volumes weighed on the quarter and tried to detail fedex uses tech logistics, including machine learning and robotics. mixed guidance weighed on this quarter. full year eps guidance with a very wide range with a midpoint falling well short of estimates. also, a departure, cfe mike lenz announcing his retirement. they pointed to weaker volumes overseas and inflation with cost-cutting efforts they want to cut $4 billion in costs by fiscal year 2025 and network 2.0, a broad plan to consolidate all express, ground, and freight units into one company, a move they hope will reduce costs in the release, canada, fedex's unit in canada has already had ground shipments being delivered by express they say they are undergoing a similar process in 20 other markets. only ground beat expectations.

ground seeing its pricing increase by 5%, melissa. >> all right, frank, thank you fedex has had quite a run, tim, since september. what happened here >> so, i -- look, the stock hadn't rallied 57% into these numbers and we were dealing with a company that seemed like a broken company three quarters ago. the world is very different after 60% over the last eight months and with fedex, there's a lot of moving pieces in between the macro. industry-specific issues, especially around unions and what not and then getting into truly some of the demand issues, and the fedex specific on costs and what not. there's nothing i heard in here that sounded like fedex, the broken company, in fact, if you look at u.p.s., trading down almost in sympathy, i -- i think demand outlook is not great, right? i mean, this is -- this is something that will be pushing back on early cycle stuff. fedex tends to usually be well ahead of the other companies and

in fact had a big move, but i wouldn't get too worked up one way or the other i'm happy to hear the company specific stuff sounds okay >> fedex problem or macro problem? >> i think this is more fedex specific what people want to see with fedex, they were excited about the cost-cutting measures they're talking about, which you brought up a good point earlier, we need to see them become more efficient, not just simply cutting costs. and if they can cut costs, if their demand isn't going on, they don't increase efficiency, it's not going to help them. so, there's some positives here, but they need to get that demand people are moving towards services, less towards goods >> yeah, and we used that word rational,er ration aim this seems irrational, right trading at 12 times expected earnings growth at 20% for the last two years why does this stock trade at such a discount to a market multiple >> and even u.p.s. >> yeah, so me, i think there's -- like, i, you know -- i agree with everything courtney, you know, props to the way you laid that out and it's a hard environment, i think right

now, to kind of lay out that sort of bullish outlook you're doing and we recognize you are not saying go all-in right now with the nasdaq up 35% >> buy a.i >> right but there's plenty of pockets of the stock market that are telling a very different picture other than about ten stocks that make up 25% of the s&p 500 and 50% of the nasdaq 100. fedex is kind of one of them energy is another area small caps are another area. materials -- >> your extrap lake of that, though, is that there is something more sinister going on, a bad picture of the company, versus there are pockets of hope in those undervalued patients of the market >> it's not so much about the economy. i know we're going to talk about china, but the stuff around china just doesn't feel good, and one of the things that got the stock market going in january and february, the switch from zero-covid and it was going to turn -- >> bad news is good news, right? i feel like now more stimulus to be chucked at the problem >> did you see how chinese

stocks traded today? >> well, they wanted more. >> i guess my only point is is, like, you know, on cue, this a.i. narrative came into the market at a time where the fed was doing qt, right? >> yeah. >> i mean, it feels like we, again, this is a guy adami material, we alchemied out and i fear the more concentration we have -- kroger last week talked about a.i., lennar is talking about it >> sure. >> these guys are going to talk about it >> it's been around for a long time >> this is what tech is. this is why companies invest in tech this is why they have, you know, cap-x and r and d and -- >> way back when people were like, oh, we're going to use the internet, so we're an internet company. >> well, i -- >> isn't this one of your points one of your points is that corporate margins -- companies that are not tech companies -- everybody is getting more productive and the multiples get

better because the margins get better and that everybody benefits >> yeah, exactly and it's not just a.i. it's automation and spend on just efficiency. we've seen this in play for the last couple of years in fact, our industrials team has been writing about how these automation companies have just been minting money from cap-x on efficiency spend, so, i think this is like clockwork every time you've seen labor inflation, companies tend to spend on automation and then two years later, bin go productivit. i think that's the bull case i agree with you, some of this is getting crazy, but i think underneath the surface, there are -- we're sowing the seeds for a longer term productivity psych ill, which is something we haven't seen in a long time. i've forgotten what it looks like i've forgotten what it looks like to see companies actually think about efficiency, doing more, you know, replacing people, we haven't had to worry about that for a very long time. >> yeah. coming up, out of energy

crude getting crushed and bringing oil stocks down along with it. so, how should you navigate this energy trade the traders will break it down. plus, jim cramer riding shotgun with ford's ceo today. sneak peek of that interview and the auto trade when "fast money" rolls on meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

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welcome back to "fast money. ford shares falling after their recent rally ceo jim farley telling our jim cramer that the area where the company will dominate may be not where you think. >> i saw the companystruggle with trying to do everything every day, and that focus and, frankly, accountability of the financial markets to turn our ev business into a profitable business, we thought as a leadership team, the key thing -- it's not easy, but the secret at ford is something that people don't talk about. which is our pro business. i mean, we are the dominant player globally in commercial vehicles >> catch the full interview tonight on "mad money," right here on cnbc really got a boost when it agreed to adapt the nacs technology from tesla.

>> it did, as did gm and the whole sector got a boost and tesla got a boost, too so, the fact they're working towards common standards, the speed and the pace of ev the issue with ford, though, is ford is a company that's guides at 10% margins at 2026 and nobody believes them the street's got them at 6%. that's what both jim's interview, which sounds fascinating, is getting to the core and, you know, i'm not sure what they're saying there. getting to the core of efficiency at ford and breaking down the reporting, those three lines, and identifying where pro really could be a game-changer, but where you can value it as such that's the key to ford because it's -- gm and ford are both ridiculously cheap, even as auto companies, i believe. and the demand metrics in europe and the u.s. are a lot better than anybody expected. you can't talk about their end markets right now. i'm sure dan believes the auto market probably not going to be so great, you may be -- >> guys. i mean -- i follow this guy on

p patreon, he tracks tesla's b backlog. the backlog is for 18,000 cars the stock just gained 2% in the last hour -- >> are we talking tesla -- >> i'm switching gears here. >> i thought you had something to say about tesla >> there are no gears, i'm switching gears here >> get it out. >> in china, the backlog is for 13,000 cars. so, tesla has appreciated the way it has during all these announcements -- >> because they are recurring revenue now. they are changing the business model. >> that's fantastic. but the stock's gained $300 billion in market cap during this same time period, chen people are going to be using a different, like, little connector to charge their electric cars. >> and pay tesla every single time >> no, they're not >> the super charger payment >> if you want a tesla right now, the wait time is the lowest it's been in years and they are offering three years of free

supercharging. so, this is going to be the ultimate commodity, okay it's going to be the ultimate commodity. and i just don't get -- there's insanity going on here, people and everyone thinks this is normal, and this is going to be another trillion dollar market cap company. part of this magnificent seven that you guys are all calling it, nifty 50, doug is going to tweet them out we got all the names fur all the moves. it doesn't end well when they start naming things. remember fang? those stocks all lost 70% of their value from their highs in november 2021. >> ford and gm, what do you think? >> isn't everything that you were saying that's anti-tesla probably good for ford, though >> sure. have at it have a ball at 11 times earnings and i believe -- >> it's not 11 times it's seven times, gm's 5.4 times. they're not expensive. >> even better i'm just saying. you've been suggesting it since it was 11 bucks a month ago and you had a nice tradeoff. >> it's not even about nice trades or not.

to me, i think we're talking about auto companies that most people are guilty until proven ne innocent their ev businesses are a long way from being profitable. tesla -- i agree, i don't want to pay this multiple for tesla i haven't ever wanted to pay it, so i'm not someone that's going to die on the tesla hill here. i do think that there are dynamics in getting the entire ev space more attune and more in line and when you start to see ford and gm buddying up with elon, you know, it -- they're only doing it for their own advantage, let's be clear. they are not doing it because they want to throw tesla a bone. but it does tell me that the entire ev space is moving faster, and that's really what the story is the technicals, the charts, i mean, you know, those are things that i wouldn't be -- >> seven times for ford is still not a value? >> i don't think so. but i -- ford is a prove to me story, and i think mr. farley would say the same thing at this point. that's why they've taken very aggressive moves they brought in outsiders, revamping their management style, even though we know they

have some of the best and most iconic brands in the auto industry i like ford for that >> courtney, just quickly, gm, is it also a show me story >> it is they're all going to benefit from the additional charging space. i would probably take a ford over a gm. they are the second-best selling ev out there right now and you are seeing the backlogs and additional charging, you're going to see more demand going towards there, but i think both long-term, it's going to be a good thing for the entire industry. all right, a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. crude getting crushed. oil stocks dropping on weakening demand out of china. what it means for the whole energy space, next and speaking of china, a big leadership shakeup at one of the country's biggest tech companies. and a high profite visit from the u.s. secretary of state. what it all could mean for markets going forward. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. the do dropping more than 200 points, the s&p down a half a percent. boeing losing 3% one of the worst performers. the company, along with airbus, front and center at the paris air show, where companies are expected to order 2,000 jets disney falling after a rough opening weekend for pixar's "elemental." well, crude under pressure analysts at china's oil producer and supplier cutting their forecast from over 5% to about 3.5% this year energy, the worst performing

sector today, with phillips 66, halliburton, devon energy seeing some of the steepest losses. it's been a tough trade this year, savita is this a value area >> energy? yeah, i like energy a lot. i think enter is an interesting sector i think the catalyst right now is what we're seeing in terms of cap-x, so, what's interesting is, energy companies have gotten safer. and they've basically transformed from paying their ceos exclusively on production to now paying ceos on cash return, on esg goals they're not going to start drilling again at the least provocation of a move higher in prices, so, i think that translates to smoother earnings. energy was also this boom/bust sector, super volatile earnings. they've paid down a lot of debt. they've got this dividend, they're focused on cash return i think this is a sector that could rerate and on top of that, what we're hearing is, again, tech

companies moving stuff out of china back to the u.s., companies, you know, basically reshoring for national security reasons, as well as climate decarbonization reasons. so, there's a theme going on here, where we've underspent on manufacturing capacity for ten years, and i think that's starting to play out so, i think what's interesting is that companies have every reason to guide down on everything right now, i mean, they have ever reason to sandbag and give us these really low numbers, but they're actually guiding above what analysts are expecting on planned cap-x traditional cap-x, not tech. so, i think we're at a point where after spending exclusively on tech for the last, you know, ten-plus years, we're now starting to see a mixed shift towards traditional manufacturing cap-x as well as technology and then housing, which i mentioned earlier, is pretty bullish for oil and traditional

cap-x. >> where in energy this is about china today, at least. >> and this is where i go full courtney on my total agreement with savita. that's the story in the energy sector these companies are run for shareholders, not debt shareholders on the growth side. and there's a fight amongst energy companies to see who can pay back the most free cash flow and i think we don't want to see them with a heavy cap-x cycle. unlike some of these places, where we are hoping it brings this down. in terms of the china side of it, look, demand is net growing, okay and until it's not, it's growing. and i understand the dynamics around you y, you know, we're l at a industrial recession, there's no question about that we look at pmis around the world. but i look at the growth that's coming out of the emerging world, yand for sure, and china, still, is still putting more aggregate base oil demand every year it's building upon itself. it's not being broken down so, i still think the supply and demand dynamics favor the supply

side of this, and i think supply side of it, i don't see new supply coming online if anything, people cutting it. all right, coming up, ceo shakeup. one of china's largest tech companies changing leadership. what it means for the china trade next. plus, kb home reporting w rnings hothe options traders are playing this name when "fast money" returns ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't

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welcome back to "fast money. chinese internet stocks getting slammed today. jd.com, tensent and alibaba falling despite what was termed as a productive between anthony blinken and xi jinping let's bring in crane shares chief investmentofficer brenda ahern. great to have you with us. why do you see -- maybe the most positive thing is they agreed they will talk again and that things will continue what other positive developments did you see out of this meeting? >> well, just the fact that a u.s. diplomat went to china the first time in five years is a step forward coming out of the meeting, it was you a agree agrees for somer chinese officials to come to washington just the dialogue between the

two most economic relationship in the world is a small step forward. >> when you take a look, though, at some of these china etfs, what would be the biggester catalyst, continuing talks like this, or more stimulus from the chinese government >> well, on the former, the geopolitical has kept many on the sidelines, they are worried about putting a china name in their portfolio and the potential new headline come out. so institutional investors are underweight china, and certainly in terms of china's stimulus, i think, the only ten basis point primary cut left many wanting. they want them to step on the stimulus gas >> and i'm wondering what your take was on the alibaba news, the cofounder of alibaba, you know, heading the cloud business, i would think that this would have been very positive, was it just for, you

know, the dashed hope that there would be a huge china stimulus and that didn't come through is that why all these stocks traded lower >> i think it was the macro today, as well as it is a holiday week at the end of this week so, you're probably going to see thin volumes but i think ultimately, we're waiting for the market to go from being a weighing machine to a voting machine, right? that, you know, for amazon's market cap, you can buy every company and still have $55 billion in cash, just a significant underinvestment in china, as highlighted by the ability to buy all of these names, just for the market of amazon today >> brendan, my question, i guess, really gets back to the news around alibaba, and investors, you see this western investors especially have found chinese megacap tech businesses off-limits because of big brother. you see jack banished --

melissa -- she agreed, i just -- that news, and the fact that you got a sense of really what ali cloud is worth and ali pay, you can do the sum of the parts, and to me, this is -- i'm a lot more excited about today's move and surprised the prices went down >> yeah, tim, i think my -- the terrible sentiment i feel is usually an indication of a low, i mean, we're at positioning back at where we were in october '22, so, i would agree that this news shows we'd have a definitive date of when this spin-off could start to happen, which would be september 10th, when eddie takes over, so, i think -- i'm with you. i think it's actually a positive, just really can't explain why investors aren't coming into these names based on some of the fundamentals >> all right, thank you so much for your time. good to get your take. brendan ahern of crane shares. dan, did you think -- i thought

it was positive because you could see who is going to head each business and get a sense of how the businesses would operate. >> i asked people who know joe, has he been back in bay sing in the last few years he lives here in the u.s., he owns the nets, like, would he go back to beijing? has he been back >> i would think -- >> this would tell me it's green light. it's back, like, they've paid their dues, they kissed the ring, and it's time. >> are you willing to take -- i just find it really -- if you have to ask that question about the chairman of a company this size, you know what i mean, in a country like china, who happens to do no business here for the most part, but lives here, you know what i mean i'm just saying, like -- >> you could uneintern ttern ii as, he is a westernized face >> i think people are putting too much weight on some of the short-term pressures here, but the longer term, too, when we look at china, all these are

actually going to be positives and i think you really have to look at, yes, china's getting a slower start, and yes, they're probably going to have some stimulus, maybe it wasn't as much as people wanted to see today, but it's going to lead up it is a dirt cheap company right now and it's only going to go up. >> i'm sure you hear from clients, the reluctance to buy into china at this point >> yeah, i think there's reluctance to buy into a lot of things right now commodities, china there's no doubt a lot of risks out there, but what i've found is that any area of the market that has, like, capital constraints and gated captain usually does really well it's the sin stock event >> would you characterize china and what's going on there -- >> so far, i would imagine that there is some reticence to buy just because of the sort of geopolitical/listing risk, et cetera, so, i think that's, you know, a factor that one has to think about. i think it's a tradeoff between liquidity and, you know, kind of

thinking about where the growth is and i think your guest's comment on, he was surprised that fundamentals haven't kicked in at this point says everything. we're in a market where there are so many fundamental opportunities, the question, when are folks willing to step in and take a little bit of risk coming up, red hot housing data sending the home builders to new highs is it time for you to build a position in the sector wel vent'ldi io the options pits for that next. "fast money" is back in two. d c. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

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welcome back to "fast money. kb home, dr horton and lennar hitting new highhighs. options traders are betting this the great news for kb home ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. mike khouw has the action. >> right now, the options markets implying a move of 5.5% by the end of the week, after they report earnings we saw calls basically trading 3.3 times the average daily volume and the busiest of those was the july 55s we saw just under 1,500 of those trading for just under a buck. buyers are obviously betting that the stock is going to continue to rally. >> thank you, mike for more options action, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, we're watching

shares of exact sciences the ceo will join us live for a deep dive on what isth means for investors and patients more "fast money" in two ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology.

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welcome back to "fast money. exact sciences shares popping after the company announced positive trial results for its next genc colorectal cancer test joining us to break down the results is exact sinces ceo kevin connolly great to have you with us. >> melissa, thank you for having us so great to be on the show >> you sound like a happy man. you know, analysts were looking for 89 plus, 90 plus, in terms ofving that, you got to 94%. what does this mean for patients >> it's a home run for patients. and let me provide a little context. colon cancer is the number two deadliest cancer, and the challenge is not enough people are getting screened screening saves lives. we know it and 60 million people, about half of the people who are

recommended for screening, aren't up to date with their screening. cologuard revolutionized cancer -- colon cancer screening. about 10 million people have been screened with cologuard to date, and now, what we call next generation cologuard, these data, these results, show a significant step up in performance, in terms of detecting cancer and in terms of lowering the false positive rate >> help us understand the market at this point. you know, there are a number of people who might have gotten false positive those tests are good for ten years so, those people have been screened, they won't be taking another test foryears, so, who will actually use this test? >> yeah, the -- first of all, the data, the data from the study showed that this next generation of cologuard detects 94% of cancers, putting that in context, the main guideline group says that colonoscopy

detects 95%. they are awfully close in terms of the false positive rate of cologuard, it was 13%, and now, these new data show that it's only 9%. that's a 30% decrease, meaning 30% fewer people need to go unnecessarily to a colonoscopy, meaning they can avoid one and stick with cologuard, so, everybody wins the other important thing about this study is, it showed our test's ability to detect 75% of the most advanced precancers and these are precancers that are maybe one to three years away from turning into stage one cancer, by finding them, removing them, that's addressing the problem early. >> i wanted to ask you about screening for advanced adenomi analysts said this would be secondary to colorectal cancer,

but what are your findings there, and could that be a reason for the cologuard 2.0 test eventually? >> yes, melissa, it's a really important part of screening, so find precancerous poll lips, especially the advanced ones, and importantly, stage one and stage two cancers, which are the ones that are the most treatable, so -- stage one patients, 98 out of 100 people survive five years stage four colon cancer, 8 out of 100 people survive five years. so, earlier detection is everything there's no therapy as effective as earlier detection, and noninvasive screening in your home with cologuard, and this next generation version, we're just thrilled. >> and you have an investor day tomorrow, as i understand it, thank you, kevin, appreciate your time. >> thank you melissa we can't wait for the investor day tomorrow >> all right that stock is up 6% right now, and climbing in the afterhours

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn savita >> so, look, i think it's a stock picker's market, but if i were going to buy a group, it would be home improvement plays, because we've seen that every time home builders rally, a couple of months later, home improvement. >> all right, tim seymour? >> savita, you need to come back more afternoon >> yep >> and i think alibaba and we had many different trades, a lot to be proven here, but even sum of the parts, look at ali cloud this is important news, i think. >> courtney? >> actually was going to choose alibaba, but instead, i'm go eem here, which is one of the top holdings i think emerging markets, it's a great play right now >> you got a lot of time -- >> i know. >> are you sure you want to do that >> wow sure you can fill it >> i'm still here. >> we didn't talk much about yields and i think the whole growth thing, i think the ten-year yield is going to retest that 335 level. you play to that with the tlt on

the long side. >> savita is shaking her head. >> yields are going up, i'm telling you. >> that's what you said. >> you need to come back we need to duke this one out >> great to have you open invitation, come on down the block when you feel like it. thank you for watching >> welcome to the heart of american manufacturing might. matt money comes to the motor city now. my mission is simple, to make you money.