c3.ai, down 9.5%, intel was down 6% amd was also down almost 6% and tesla 5.5%. >> we have powell testifying in front of the senators tomorrow we'll be watching that that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," so much for a pause. the fed chair telling congress rates are going to need to keep rising to bring inflation down, so, if powell says we have a long way to go, does that mean this recent market rally is on shaky ground plus, biden's blunder. one day after secretary of state blinken wrapped up meetings in china, where progress was made, biden called president xi a dictator what impact have this on the relationship and later, bitcoin seems to be back. surging back above 30,000, jumping 15%. what's behind the revival, and can it last? we'll debate that.

i'm melissa lee, this is "fast mo money" we start off with a third straight down day for stocks the nasdaq leading the losses, seeing its worst day in two weeks. the s&p 500 closing lower, along with the dow fed chair jerome powell warning that the central bank has a long way to go to fight inflation, sirg signaling there are more rate hikes in store does that mean we could be in for a longer cooling off period? tim? >> well, i think powell ultimately can't help himself to be dovish, and i think, you know, today was not a big surprise relative to what we got last week. i also don't think that the market was selling off on powell i think the market is selling off on positioning that's gotten really extreme and interesting, because the vix fell 5% today on a down day. we've had this conversation on the desk and it's a conversation with different people on the street, hedge funds have been bringing the gross down. they've been selling popular longs and covering popular

shorts some could argue that's why it seems like the market is bro broa broadening and why you see volatility going low. but to me, look, sentiment and momentum indicators certainly favor that equities have a place to pull back here. you also have a market which doesn't really believe that we're going into recession there's no way stocks could be pricing in recession here, is my view and i think that's part of where we are i just think it gets back to the market that we have in front of us and the market we have in front of us today was a day, and i'll oversimplify it, and this isn't right to oversimplify it, but at least until semis start really underperforming qs or the nasdaq 100, which really starts to underperform the s&p, then i think the market is going to continue to go higher. today was a day when semis really underperformed the nasdaq, which really underperformed the s&p we haven't had a lot of that until that changes, i think the market is going to continue to stay high. >> yeah, we were talking on the caller yes today, and old "fast

money" member larry mcdonald, he had a note out talking about the confluence of passive investing, something that we talked a lot about, and these zero days to expiration options and how dampening that has been. and it sets up for a difficult sort of environment if everyone heads for the door at one time we did see that today in a handful of names that have been very popular and i guess the thing that's kind of interesting to me is that, you know, in 2023, we've actually almost had the inverse of what we had in 2022 like, i don't think there were two many days last year where we felt there was too much selling panic. maybe that day in october, right, where we had that huge down day, new 52-week lows, big reversal, and, you know, we just didn't have a lot of panic in the market where did the vix get its height, you know what i'm saying so, right now, it seems like we are just lulled to sleep right here, and so, it goes back to some of the concentration that tim just mentioned

the broadening out of the market, i don't really see it. i don't see it in health care, i don't see it in financials, i don't see it in a lot of groups right here i still see a lot of risk in ten names that make up 25% of the s&p 500 and 50% of the nasdaq 100, and that continues to actually have risk as it relates to any deceleration and the excitement we've seen around this a.i. stuff, that could be coming to a theater near you when we get q-3 guidance >> i can see the whole positioning argument, but i think powell sort of really doubled down on some notions that he didn't have to, he didn't have to go to, he's committed to 2% as the target, 2% is a long way from here and if there was ever a hope of some sort of rate cult, he really twisted the knife in that notion i mean, it is gone, i think. he really -- >> ftwist the knife. wow, mel that's impressive on a wednesday afternoon. >> it seems to be really, really dead >> wednesday oh, yeah, it is --

>> yeah. >> i think he went to places he didn't have to go, in other worlds >> i agree i think part of the pivot, which -- not pivot, pause, which i don't think they needed to do or should have done, but was to, just, all right, take a breath here and we don't need to do anything he didn't need to say that i think he could have still been hawkish and say, you know, data will continue to tell us what to do, but it would seem we have a ways to go, something like that. i think we'll see inflation continue to moderate, but we're still really far away from where he needs to be i do think we're in this rlull i the market we don't have a ton of earnings news we don't have a fed decision yet. we are probably just back and forth until we see bank earnings, and that's july 14th, i think jpmorgan starts bank earnings then we'll get a sense of what banks are doing, but on the economy. and what they're seeing, and i actually think it's going to be okay >> so, we're in a vacuum, guy.

so, what did you make of tax's action >> being in a -- have you ever turned on that vacuum, i mean, they never smell particularly good, so, i personally don't want to be in a vacuum >> it sucks up dirt, what do you expect it to smell like? >> excellent point by you. today's action makes sense to me rafael bastic from the fed, non-voting member, he said, don't expect any cuts for the majority of 2024 that flies in the face of a lot of what the market's been talking about recently and i think -- listen, i don't know -- i'm sure steve has an inkling for thing, but i think the fed is looking at the stock market and is speaking specifically to the stock market when they say, you know, i'm far phrasing, i'm not sure what you're looking at, but rates are going to stay elevated, and you guys and gals better wake up to that fact. so, the last three days clearly makes sense to me, because i'm been bearish for a better part of the year. we'll see if this continues, but

tim's point about the vix is spot-on. dan's oexplanation spot-on, as well >> let's go to steve liesman you've been listening in on our conversation, steve, what -- what did you make of his comments today >> i think you guys have it exactly right. he fairly explicitly endorsed two more rate hikes in day one of these two days of cong congressional system he said fed officials have for forecast two more. and he said it's a pretty good guess the fed is going to be hiking more. >> they do believe it will be appropriate to raise rates in a big majority believes raise rates twice this year, and, you know, i think that's a pretty good guess at what will happen if the economy performs about as expected >> powell exfa sized the fed's

in no hurry to hike at its sequential meetings as it was doing back in the summer the speed is now less important than the level, he said. he said inflation has moderated somewhat, but still has a long way to go to get to the fed's 2% target on the economy, he said it's slowed significantly since last year, but expanding at a modest pace consumer spending picked up, but housing is weak. higher rates are slowing business investment and the labor market remains very tight. two fed presidents weighing with a more dovish view both putting themselves in the wait and see camp, noting that the fed had done a lot and they both wanted more data on inflation and the economy before deciding what to do in july. melissa? >> steve, i'm curious, when he said and talked about, you know, speed, and speed is not very important as it was before, it almost seemed like he was laying the groundwork for a potential longer period in which they are going to wait and see, so, it

could be, you know, beyond two, and it could be into next year -- i don't know, it seemed like he opened the door to that by saying that speed is not important right now. >> yeah, i think that at least creates an every other meeting type of pattern, rather than every meeting. but it could go on even longer i mean, there are people out there that are saying 6% and the question i have, melissa, which is, when i look at the way the futures market, the fed fund futures market is priced right now, that next hike is priced in, but the second hike is not and i just wonder if it has paid for folks to fight the fed over time if you go back to when powell made that big pivot back in november of 2021, essentially the market is still down like 14% since then the market's been fighting the fed the whole time with a different outlook on inflation, with a different outlook on

rates, and i'm not sure it's paid to do that. >> guy, you got a question >> steve, i look at the yield curve pretty simplistically, but i'm curious what you think, and maybe what the fed things. two tens went out to 110 basis points, came back to 40, relatively quickly here we are sitting here, either side of 92, 93 points unvs inved people seem to discount it this time, but we've been inverted, and we are probably at levels we haven't seen in 40 some years. what do you think it means >> they look at it, but they're more interested in the three-month, two-year inversion, which is out there they don't think the market knows a whole lot or anybody knows a whole lot about what's going to happen in ten years and they don't think that's a strong signal they think a stronger signal, based on a paper written by one of the federal reserve banks is in the that nearer term inversion, which tells you, i think, right now that the market thinks the fed is not far away

from cutting and the fed has cuts built in for next year, so, for sure we're nearer the end of the cycle as the fed believes it right now, but the question is, where is that end, and what it means for the economy and stocks, there are those that think that the fed is not going to stop until something breaks, and the only sign that it will really have had a significant effect on the economy to bring down inflation is something like the labor market breaking or something like the stock market, along with perhaps the stock market selling off i don't know that the fed is satisfied with the numbers that would be put off by a soft landing. it would love to have one, but if you don't get the inflation reaction, the fed, i don't think, is going to stop. >> i just want to follow up on that point so, if the fed actually is thinking they're going to do some cuts next year, where do they think that inflation has to be to get to that? i can't be -- it mean, it could

be 2%, but this seems like we are -- >> he just said two today. >> i know, but -- >> he said two >> you don't change now. >> steve >> no, no, nobody thinks we're going to two next year the best -- the most optimistic is two in 2025 they think it gets into the threes next year, in terms of the core rate. so, it's a slow process. and they're happy. remember, and bostic said this today, that there's a thing when bostic calls passive tightening, which is this. as the inflation rate comes down, and the fed interest rate remains the same, the real rate, or -- becomes more restrictive, so -- for example, if you have a 5% inflation rate and a 5% funds rate, you're at zero, but if you have a 4% inflation rate and a 5% funds rate, all of a sudden, you're at positive real 1% >> all right >> how is that for quick math on national television? >> excellent and the hand gesture, that really helped us, too. steve, thank you

steve liesman. >> couple things here, david rosenberg had a note out saying 90% of the time during rate hiking cycles, the stock market rises into it. >> into the cycle or through the cycle. >> through the cycle, and it sells off afterward. the fed funds rate in 2018, the last time powell was raising, got to 2.5%. and we knew that inflation was 2% -- >> 50 basis points 2 1/2 -- >> you can do math >> sorry, sorry, sorry so, it was -- the point is, it was -- all right, sorry. you know what i was thinking of -- the ten-year got to 3.25%. it was still very accommodative. the stock market dropped 20%, as soon as we had a little bit of a growth scare and i think that's really important to think about, because we're talking about a three-day selloff about 1.5% and this is, you know, like, the longest selloff that we've had

in a month and a half. the last thing i'll say about the banks that you just mentioned before, did you see all the regional banks they all guided down and you could say that's very specific to them, but i keep hearing stories and we're going to hear more and more where these rates are going to be turning the keys into the banks, and who owns out that paper? it's the regional banks. so, i feel like the back half of this year is not going to be nearly as rosy or just going to pay attention to things that the stock market doesn't seem to care about right now >> in the meantime, though, even though it's been tree shree str days -- >> apple's at all-time highs >> exactly >> i don't think anybody's questioning -- maybe i'm wrong most people assume we're having a recession. the question, how shallow. >> tiny dip. >> right but to assume the fed can tighten sufficient to get down to 2%. when core inflation has been stuck at 5.3% for nine months now, and not take the economy deep into recession is naive it's just -- there's no way we can do it.

if you think about the recession we should have had during covid, which we didn't have, because we threw so much m-2 at the problem, and you're now trying to -- it just -- the question really is, how much should stocks begin to price in recession? and they haven't priced in much here >> for more on all of this, let's bring in joe lavornia. joe, always great to see you >> thank you same here, melissa >> inflation target really is 2% and remains 2%, does that mean that we have to have a recession? >> noll. listening to when karen asked steve about, would they cut with inflation still above 2%, my answer is yes. it depends really on the unemployment rate and in the fed's forecast, which showed 2% core inflation in '25, they've got their unemployment rate well above 4% they lowered it, but it's still well above 4%. i think it peaks at 4.3, 4.5, somewhere around there so, i would argue if the labor market weakens in the next few months and we see that rate move

up above four, we'll have a recession, because we know historically going back to data, second world war, rises 50 basis points from its low, we have a downturn when the fed actually seeing it, they will pivot. meaning, they will focus on the unemployment rate, which is a leading end kale or the of inflation and worry about where the inflation rate is at that point in time. >> so, it sounds like you think there will be a recession, but then response to recession, the fed will quickly pivot, so, that brings into -- >> yes >> the picture a rate cut, if pivot means cut, this year -- >> yes yes. i mean -- i remember in '07, we at the time thought the economy was very weak, there was excess housing leverage, excess allocation in capital, and the fed pivoted very quickly basically in three days. they cut 100 basis points for the year if -- if the labor market breaks, and we'll get some data tomorrow that cover claims iffer the survey week, and they've

been edging up, if we get some weak employment data in the next few months and we're due for it. we've had 14 consecutive months where the street has underestimated payrolls, that's a record long in terms of length, then i think things can happen very quickly, and you could see the fed cut this year, so, i would not rule that rate cut out. absolutely not >> joe, it's karen you talked about 50 basis point increase in the unemployment rate triggering a recession, but has it ever been a 50 basis point increase with an unemployment rate as low as it is now >> yes, we've had it actually a couple of times below where it is now 2.5% in the 50s, one up well over six, so, doesn't really matter where it's starting where it goes, where it rises, is going to be partly a function of how deep the recession is, and the reality is, when the next recession happens, we really have no idea if it's going to be deep or shallow. this notion that it's going to be shallow, i'm not sure what it's predicated on

we thought when the recession hit in '08 i was going to be shallow, in fact, the economy even grew almost 2.5% in the second quarter of '08. whether it's shall locow will dd on what the fed reaction is to the economy at that time, and my guess is with the election next year and fiscal poll sill as messy as it is right now, you're going to get no fiscal relief. so, when it comes, it could be a deep recession >> joe, you are unlike many exist e economists, meaning, you are cool because you like van halen. most can't even predict where the economy is going why i connected these two, i just wanted to point out that you met you at a van hailen concert. >> i would say i love. >> i don't love that economists never seem to be willing to get out there and anticipate where the economy is going maybe i'm really talking about the fed. if we nolet boar is going to slow, we know the economy is slowing, why can't the fed say, i think the economy is going to be here in six months, so, i'll take poll sill there right now

why are we so data-dependent, why are we waiting on a lag we all know is there? >> the answer is, tim, it's political, i think and one of the reasons that chair powell, i think he made a commitment to the president to get inflation down, and, again, it's a forecast with the rate now, it's up 3.4 to 3.7. history would say if it goes to 4.0, you're going to have a recession, you'd be in recession, so, i think it's that commitment to get inflation down and the uncertainty that it's a forecast it's a forecast means it may not happen and to me, that's why jaypowel has done what he's done and they really want to see more evidence that they need to be where they want to be, but tim, this is also the litany, or the history of the fed the fed always overdoes it, and this would be yet another example of the fed overdoing it, because when it happens in real time, for whatever reason, they forget about the lags and the politics may be such they have to keep pushing and it's a mistake. >> joe, thank you. always good to see you >> thanks, everybody

>> so, joe's basically saying, let's not believe the fed here he doesn't believe the fed here. steve was just saying fed funds futures, they don't believe the fed here they don't believe what jerome powell said today on the hill, guy. i know what you're gouge to say, i don't know why i go to you >> yeah. stay with the theme. jamie's been crying about -- >> i knew you were going to do that >> of course that jamie being jamie dimon, so, i would listen to him, and i understand what joe is saying, but you have to ask yourself this -- how bad will things be and again, with the rhetoric that we heard, for the fed to be cutting rates at the back half of this year, it does not suggest that stocks will be continue on their merry way, so, he may be right, but if he's right, i actually fear for what the -- what the outcome is going to be in terms of the stock market. coming up, an earnings alert on kb homes. details on that quarter and the home building space next. plus, chips taking a big breather after a huge run this year why they are pulling back and

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welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on kb home. shares of the home builder vol volatile the stock is up 65 this year, trading at its highest level since 2007 diana has more on the company's report diana? >> yeah, melissa, the mantra for the builders appears to be demand the analyst call is still going on right now, but at the top, the ceo said buyers are demonstrating a higher sense of urgency than we saw earlier this year no surprise, kb beat nicely on the top and bottom lines metzger said the improvement in demand we started to see in february was sustained throughout our second quarter as we achieved monthly sequential increases in our net orders. he said they've lowered both build times and direct construction costs, but kb's gross profit margin dropped from 21% to 25%, mainly due to price decreases and other home buyer conc concessions, together with higher construction costs and a shift in the mix of homes delivered. the average home price dropped

3% year over year, but the cancellation rate of 22% was up from 17% a year ago, but down quarter to quarter from 36%, so, there melissa, is your urgency right in the number. >> why are construction costs higher, diana? was it all wage inflation? >> there's wage inflation, of course, that has to do with labor, but it's actually the cost of lumber came down, but the cost of other things that go into the home are still much higher, so, with the headlines said to be lumber's down, but when you look at strange things that you wouldn't think go into the home with hvac systems and other things are actually a lot higher >> all right, diana, thank you karen, you were looking at thises quarter, looked pretty good >> yeah, it actually looked pretty good. well, the gross margin being narrower, that would explain some of it, and the gid, realive to the side of the beat on the revenue, which was really big, the guide sort of made it seem sort of muted for the rest of the year, though the commentary

sounds pretty upbeat there is a disconnect there in the -- not just home building, but in the whole housing market in that you have demand there, but you have this giant, you know, wrench in the system of rates being where they are, yet houses are forming millennials do want to buy homes. i guess just need some time to get used to these rates. >> the average contract rate was 6.73%. so, it didn't come down a lot at all during this quarter, i mean, that really worked against them, if there was a headwind there. >> but 90% of the mortgages outstanding are probably all below 4% at thispoint, so, no one's going anywhere, but yeah, if you look at the recovery in the index, it's had the fiercest recovery over the last six months of any period other than coming out of covid. we talked about the home builders guy's done a great job flagging this a long time ago you have a case, the charts on these companies are extraordinary. you look at -- kb, somewhere

around 52, 53 bucks. a couple of the others have gone straight through the bigger home builders have a play to outperform the smaller guys, because of their scale at this point, and i think the multiples are not terribly demanding. >> guy >> kbh is actually underperformed the rest of the group. you made the point, the highest you've seen since '07. you have to go back to march '06 when this was a $65 stock. that was your all-time high. you look at toll brothers, pulty homes, they are off to the races. but look at the numbers. diana mentioned gross margins, she was right to mention that, was sequentially lower at 21.4%, but it was better than the street was expecting, so, the street had priced in sub 21, and then quickly, mel, you look at deliveries, i mean, 3,665 deliveries versus expected of 2,965. that's significant, because the prices held in, so -- it's a really good quarter. it shouldn't be all that surprising again given the

supply/demand fundamentals which are still in place for the space. there's still a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. a chip check on deck semis stocks in the red today. but is this just a tech time-out before another big bump? the traders debate, next plus, biden' faux pas. the president's key worlds for the chinese leader was it just bluster or a real blunder? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right afterhi ts. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go.

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welcome back to "fast money.

buzz kill on semis the smh semiconductor etf dropping for a fourth straight day of losses. look at some of the individual names seeing big losses today. intel dropping 6% of hosting about event with updates to its internal foundry model that was the biggest laggart today. dan, is this the beginning of the decline, the demise of this trade? >> i don't know. i mean, listen, look at nvidia, you just said the smh closed down 2.25%, nvidia, literally encapsulated so much of the enthusiasm of this recent run, closed down 1.75%. you know what i mean so, you have amd and intel down 6%, i think that those sorts of moves, we have not seen those in large cap tech stocks in a very long time. you would not like to see that kind of spread out a little bit to some of these other names, because they will eventually get to a name like nvidia.

if you look at amd, it fills in that gap from when nvidia gapped and so, that gap in nvidia is massive. it's hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap. at some point, it will be filled and obviously, i don't know when, and it's been a hard trade trying to short it >> you still in it >> yeah. but it's been hard and i keep defining my risk. sooner or later, i'm going to have to give up. >> it's interesting, because the way you interpret ed nvidia today, it should have fell, but on the flip side, it held up well and had good price action >> yeah, so did apple today, down 50 basis points >> tests for nvidia's strength here >> well, at some point with nvidia, you are running with the devil. and i think you've got a case where there's been a lot of priced into this, and -- but i continue to think that the market has an enormous amount of -- of positioning and momentum and a lot of passive money that seems to be chasing

here, a lot of the reasons i hear bears not capitulating and i'm not talking about dan, strategists that are out there with views on the street that have been quite negative, they are saying this can run longer, and it can, because karen mentioned the fed is in a position to play the ice cream man, to be around until -- not until the end of july. there's reasons why you can melt higher here. it doesn't mean it ascribes to fundamentals that i can believe in here, but i believe the market can go higher >> running with the devil, is that a reference >> yeah, i think i just got three halen songs in right there. >> guy, your take? >> it was not nearly as bad as i thought it would be, but quickly, just -- we talk about this last week in amd, they reported may 4th the stock was down 10% on earnings margins were not good. and then you had this -- wait for it, mel, eruption to the upside the next day when they announced seemingly this

relationship with microsoft where they're going to compete with nvidia. that stock proceeded to go up 55% over the next month and a half nothing changed, other than the price. so, i mean, amd is a great company. that last quarter was not particularly good. price action was great, so nvidia surprises me. i think they have -- i want to say they have something coming up which may be a catalyst, we'll see, but man, that -- you're in the deep end of the pool with valuation -- >> mel, you could have said -- >> is that a reference >> no. >> you could have said, guy, you know, you really got me. >> ah. >> and that is one >> that is one okay thank you for the clarification. >> you might as well jump to a commercial the faux pas the president made within a day of secretary blinken's visit that was consideredsuccessful we have more on that next. plus, a big day for bitcoin, the gricrypto breaking. and why investors are getting

particularly excited in one name "fast money" is back after this. or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

well come back to "fast money. stocks notching a third day of losses after jerome powell indicated more rate hikes are

likely this year the s&p falling half a percent the nasdaq down more than 1% a few names bucking the trend, though, and trading near all-time highs, home builders, just talked about them, dr horton, plus owens corning and cardinal health all hovering near those levels. insurance stocks also seeing a bounce after last week's weakness united health, elevance all higher. meantime, president biden potentially making a big blunder in california. biden referring to xi jinping as a dictator the remarks coming just over a day after antony blinken wrapped up his first official visit to beijing, saying the countries made progress on their strained relationship the reaction from china, tim, was maybe not surprisingly indignant, to say the least. >> no, and i tell you, i think this is a surprise this was a bit unchained, i would say, by the president, because, i mean, this is not what you do in diplomatic circles. other presidents have had much, i think, more clear examples of the d-word, deke day or the

ship, that is, and they haven't used i'm just really surprised, considering the timing of what we had just done we sent or secretary of state. there's an attempt to thaw if you think about the biden administration, there's been three, four times where i think they've gone into kind of, you know, crossed red lines, especially as it relates to the taiwan relationship and things that, i think -- leaving aside china doing something in taiwan, but until then -- i'm not saying we need to be sitting here thinking that there couldn't be some elements of the china/taiwan relationship that could get very bald for the world, but i just -- it's been surprising the way we've handled this, to me, especially when i do think that we've -- we've done a lot to protect strategic interests in the tech seconder to and continue to do so, and i think there's a lot of ran core to be worked through >> the chinese foreign minister said this was a public political provocation. i'm sure he picked those words very carefully sticking with china here, we have a new documentary premiering tonight, it's called

"china's corporate spy war." eamon javers details a sting operation that took down a chinese government spy that tried to steal jet engine technology from ge he interviews the u.s. attorneys who investigated the case. here's a first look. >> it's late winter, and in china, festivities to celebrate the lunar new year are rapidly approaching. the ministry of state's security spy is receiving messages from the ge engineer who he doesn't know is now a double agent for the fbi. their chats are friendly, encouraging, even. then he makes a bold request he asks for the engineer's laptop directory >> he attached on instructions -- >> step one, create a notepad document, so, he's giving him step by step instructions on how to send him ge information >> yeah, and this is the type of document that should make u.s. companies nervous. this is exactly the steps that you go through if you want to

copy your company computer and give it to china >> eamon javers is with us now eamon, what a fascinating documentary. i read through some of the other clips out there that have circulated today i'm wondering, you know, in terms of the effort against the united states to, you know, steal ip or steal whatever information, does it go in waves? does it increase when there are higher tensions between the two countries? >> it doesn't seem to go that way, melissa and i think largely because these operations take a long time to put together, right? so, you doubt have the sort of spikes moment to moment when the tensions increase, they say, okay, dial up a number of spy operations, because these things take months, if not years. what you do see, it's very coordinated with the chinese companies on the back end. the companies are in communication, according to people i've talked to, with the chinese government, and the chinese spy agencies, and give them a list of technology that they would like to get, chinese

spy agencies task their agents to go out into the world and find that. and that's what happened in this case that we detail tonight involving ge aviation. chinese ministry of state security officer found the ge engineer who had the specific knowledge that he wanted and started working on that guy to try to get that guy to leak him that laptop directory with all the secret information on it >> should there be extra concern for companies that have partnerships with -- because that was a way you got into china in the first place for many u.s. companies, you have partnerships with chinese companies. that those companies are at particular risk? >> yeah, absolutely. when you do the joint venture in china, that gives the chinese government a lot more leverage over you, you know, there are some companies that don't have a joint venture agreement, i believe apple is a key example other companies do have that so, that puts you in a different basket, but i talked to senator marco rube groe for this documentary, he's the ranking member on the senate intelligence committee he said in his view, american

companies are committing long-term suicide in their approach to china. and that they're simply exposing too much of their intellectual property by doing these deals in china that are risking their long-term survival as companies in exchange for short-term gain. and he said the ceos in many cases understand this, but doing this anyway, because they have a quarterly number they've got to hit and they're not worried about what's going to happen in five to ten years because they probably won't be the ceo of the g economy by then. >> eamon, thank you. cnbc documentary, "china's corporate spy war" premieres tonight, 10:00 p.m. eastern time it's chilling. absolutely chilling, some of the examples that eamon has in this. coming up, a june boom for bitcoin. why the rally in crypto? we'll bring you the details on the trade next. and throughout june, cnbc is celebrating pride month. here's the president and ceo of glaad. >> coming out, for me, at work,

helped surge my career i wasn't hiding who i was. that takes an extraordinary amount of energy and time and resource that you could be putting against your career, your job, your clients, your employees, and so, for me, when i was in the magazine business and i finally came out, i saw my career take off. so, be who you are bring your full self to work it will only make your career even better.

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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin tracking the $30,000 mark for the first time since mid april today as traders gear up for blackrock to jump into the space. earlier this week, the institutional giant submitted an application for a spot in bitcoin etf. investors betting on that. it's trading at the smallest discount to net asset since last september, karen >> yes, however, it's still not the smallest discount that it's ever traded at in fact, it used to trade at a significant premium, because there was no other way to get

into bit koint for most retail investors. so, we are -- now we're at a discount of 30%, the average for the last year has been down 38%. so, it's not that much of a close. makes me think there is room to go, and if you combine that with the underlying also moving up, that's a nice thing. i think it could go higher and we saw wisdom tree, did they file an etf -- >> five people have. it's a flood so -- >> what do they know >> do they know something? >> right right. >> this is the take that was tweeted earlier today. watching the flurry -- i thought that was an interesting spin on it. >> regulatory, coin base, crypto.com, these are exchanges a lot of pros use, there's a lot of the -- they've been building

the infrastructure where semipros and pros can trade on them and it's been an easy, accessible thing for retail. these etfs change the game, i think, as from a whole host of reasons. >> yeah. >> so, i think -- the thing people are targeting around the blackrock filing that's a little bit different is that it allows surveillance of the underlying trust by nasdaq, for example, and that's the kind of at least, you know, it begins to give both more -- it's not regulatory oversight, though it does begin to put more accountability all of this is fascinating, because where we were three weeks ago with the attack on coin coinbase the s.e.c. has been saying, first of all, let's determine what are truly registered as securities and what are not. if they are securities, you're going to be under our watch. but that's the whole point this is why the etfs should be successful and there should be some meeting of the minds. this is a bunch of well-known established players saying, look, we want to be in this space, we want to run this if you are talking about an etf,

a 40-act fund which has a slew of rules that i think is very good options traders are betting today's bitcoin bounce is good news brian has more >> yeah, traders were gobbling up calls we saw a complete flip of puts to call ratio with heavy call buying this occurred over the last five days seeing more calls to puts trade. what really was interesting was the 19,000 or so options -- call options that are expiring this friday these were the june 60 calls buyers mostly at 90 cents, meaning break even about $60.90. that's unlimited profit potential. only risking 90 cents. these options expire by friday, so, it's a little risky in that sense. if coin base sort of goes in the money on these call options, trades above this $60 level. you could be looking at a very well defined head and shoulders bottom situation here. coin base is really tracked bitcoin very well. if bitcoin is down, coinbase is usually down

and the two move lock step they are kind of separated over the last couple of months here that's maybe because of all the regulation coming down the pipeline that tim talked about, but we see a pop above 60, maybe coinbase moves higher and moves with bitcoin after that. >> brian, thank you. for more options action, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, india's prime minister making a landmark visit to the united states, meeting with top leaders and ceos. where he is off to next and what it means for investing in india. the details ahead on "fast." a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade.

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welcome back india's prime minister in the u.s. for his first state visit and he's already been very busy. here is some video of his arrival in new york city yesterday where he met with elon m musk he will attend a state dinning at the white house tomorrow and he's also expected to meet a slew of u.s. ceos. tim, who yhow do you feel about india? >> if you look at the inda, it's a $5 billion i-shares etf that's really been on a rocket and actually broken through.

you have some big names in there, reliance industries, icici bank, their jpmorgan india, relative to china, is a really trade that favors india in so many ways, in terms of both the growth -- a deflation their environment, which is a big debate india's had issues with inflation. a lot of it has been energy inflation. has oil prices have come down, it's very good for india i think it's a fascinating time to be investing in that part of the world. you are not buying it at the bottom, but you are certainly, for the asset class, this is the part of the az ysian exposure y won't. >> would you look at india, karen? >> i would the near shorting, the geography makes mexico unique, but we've seen a lot of companies already start to diversify and need supply chains in india, yes, i would. >> guy, what if china has a lot of stimulus, do you think that money then gets redirected to

there? >> back to china perhaps. they have their own issues but i think tim is right to point out the levels of resistance in inda, which is 30% or so, financials. 44 was the high a couple times, last one in december, but this should get up to that 50 level, which we last saw, i think, in november 2021, so -- i would take a look at that. at some point, mel, everybody's going to want some >> oh. >> just -- >> dive down into this one really quickly, biden's comment about xi, like, modi, one of the biggest criticisms is his assault on democracy in this country, you know what i mean? it is kind of interesting this is a very common criticism since he won re-election in 2019, you know, there's been oversight thrown out about election supervision, a lot of stuff going on there, too, so, it's renny that he cozies up to modi up next, final trades.

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final trade time guy? >> cradle's going to rock with that ej dock tonight robinhood, mel >> tim >> yeah, when it's love, it's wa walmart. they've made major investments and they're going to go. >> chairwoman? >> yes, we are seeing a rotation, names like elevance

will have room to go higher. >> dan >> yeah, i'm bearishly positioning in the xlf but i think you can be that way in the kre, that's the regionals. >> and stocks in general >> thanks for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer star rhtowtsig n >> >> there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. i am kramer welcome to kramer. i'm trying to make a little money. my job. if you're so sure the market has gone lower then that