[ laughter ] >> throw chum in the water, what happens? phil >> mastec, this infrastructure company gets 50% of the revenues from multiyear agreement they cover clean energy, natural gas pipelines and renewables it's above a two-year high. thanks, everybody. "the exchange" is now. >> thank you very much hawkish moves from global central bank the same just yesterday from norway, and both countries signaling they're not done how powell kaying the fed still has a long way to government. plus a bear rally or new bull marble? our market guest says new bull market, but they're pretty timid right now. and when will retail shrink?

and who is best positioned if the overhang is lifted first, let's check on the markets. dom? >> we were pretty down for the most of the morning so far the dow industrials down a meager 48 points, about 0.1% 33, 903 is the last trade there. at the highs of session we were up 11 points, down 14 at the lows that gives you the trading range, so about in the middle, and the nasdaq, up 62 points to the up side. we'll talk a bit more about why that is in just a couple moments. one place to coop an eon now, there's cross-currents

crude back below the $70 mark. today, we had some interesting supply and data coming out we saw an inventory drawdown in the u.s., but perhaps being out weighed by the surprise half percentage increase in the uk. that indicates some demand worries still out there. so keep an eye on crude prices now below $70 for u.s. benchmarks the trade today has been amazon. they're investing $100 million to help customers use generative intelligence, but seemingly bouncing back up from the ftc filing suit headlines yesterday. jpmorgan and overall amazon

shares are up 3%, one of the reasons you're seeing more outperformance, kelly. >> good point, thank you, dom. the u.s. has a long way to go that was the message from jay powell the bank of england surprising this morning with a 50 basis point hike these follow recent hikes across the globe from norway to australia. could the u.s. follow suit in a few weeks at the july meeting? let's ask none other than diana swan, and steve liesman. welcome to you both. diane, is europe playing catch-up they were a little late getting started, if i recall. >> they were late, but i think even the bank of canada, which was not late at getting started and has the beprospects of a soft landing, has resumed rate hikes in the last month, and

signaled it's willing to go farther. it's hanging around at too high a level for too lop. they don't want to declare victory until the battle is won. i think that's where we're at. >> you think they will steve, what is the consensus for a hike >> i think there is one. i think this is marginally helpful to the u.s., in that you have other banks raising rates to a point where it's approaches where the u.s. is. if you look at the comparison, we are number one. i don't know if that's the plates we want to be number one in, but we are number one among the developed countries when it comes to rates we were earlier and more aggressive, and our inflation rate is lower. if we have some knock-on

effects, i think the bank of england may have some other issues, maybe dealing with brexit or secular inflation. their rate is not moving >> do you, diane, want to add color to what you think might be going on in the uk. >> i think in the uk brexit is clearly an issue, and one of the worst fear says a reacceleration after they thought they had gotten it under control a bit. that is the fear that's rippling through central banks around the world, and the u.s., though we're further ahead, the bank of canada was further ahead, and had to go back in. we're talking about going back in i think this is the theme ute see throughout the rest of this year the idea that we were as close as we hoped through the peak in rates is looking further out and the central banks are looking for inflation to cool so

real rates rise. if underlying inflation does not cool, that means they have to go further. >> steve, one emerging criticism is the fact we seem to have fiscal policy moving in one direction while monetary policy is moving in another there could have been a chance for powell to call that out a bit. are the two sides of policy aligned here >> he did concede the basic economics, even while not commenting on the actual policy. more government spending is more inflationary than not. now, a democratic senator came on afterwards and said, well, that's correct, if it comes from a lack of revenue. if you offset the spending with revenue, youessentially offset

the inflationary impact and there was criticism of some of the tax cuts in place. so that's both sides of the story here i think fiscal policy has not been enough front and center in the discussion when i started learning about fighting inflation, i was on both sides, and both play a role there's not been enough discussion with the u.s. spending so much linked to mandatory spending and so little discretionary, it's a political football nobody wants to carry. >> for instance, diane, some of the infrastructure spending has to be spent by the end of 2024 if they stretch it out a bit, would that maybe have the fed more effective >> well, that's just one of many issues, by i think steve hits the nail on the head that's the mandatory spending we have out there

initially the infrastructure does add more pressure, but we have an aging demographic, and those older workers who left the workforce are not coming back. we have gotten prime-age workers back and the participation rate is up, and we have seen an increase in immigration. all of that is good news to ease and better align demand and supply in the labor market that said, we still don't have participate from the over-65 crowd and over-55 crowd, some of which or sandwiched between taking care of children and elderly parents. steve? >> we did get the prime age back to work, maybe a bit above, and we have to rethink this, kelly you and i have talked about this, ways to figure out older

folks -- i'm one of them now, actually, into the workforce i'm fine, i enjoy my work. i could use a little more time off -- >> don't you dare! [ laughter ] >> in any event. >> steve, we're close in age, so i'm worried about this. >> exactly the interesting part about this, kelly, is -- and i don't know why this is, but it's not actually the leave-ers, it's the lack of returners, i guess is the way to put it. there's some flow of those who left the work force who come back, and the data shows that's what's been lacking in the older groups we had a work force survey last summer what we found is a lot of people left the work force because of concern about illness or actual illness, and the other part was

caring for somebody who was ill. you could probably put up a graph next to that and the lack of nursing care and health care. so one way we might think about addressing this is addressing the shortage in nursing care around the country, as well as child care, both of which are categories that have not come back to the pre-pandemic left. >> since we happening to be showing continuing claims there, it's like the tree falling in the woods. jobless claims for three weeks in a row have been at a pretty elevated level it's not getting much attention. how serious do you think that is >> we don't like to jump into it too much, because we had the fraud issue which distorted our view, but i do think the rising unemployment claims we're seeing are reflective of earlier layoffs, people that got severance that were still paid as if they were edge a paycheck and those are now wearing out.

that's why you're starting to see some of the increasings, and we have seen more of a slowdown of cooling than we have seen in the official data which reversed three months of declines, but it's very lag. instead the hire lab data suggests that we're close to or actually below 9 million job openings that's still well above february 2020 levels, but the idea of bringing supply and demand more in line with each overt is important to be able to have it exceed inflation without losing ground to inflation. >> all right we'll leave it there thank you both diane swonk, and our own steve liesman. my next guest is optimistic, saying it's increasingly likely october marks the low. joining in is urian timer. it's great to see you.

you know, in light of the weakening macro back drop, what do your observations actual you? >> the market has been -- whether it was the recession or, you know, the drawdown in liquidity as the treasury replenishes its cash balance at the fed. the market has now been in a state of limbo, if you will. and then, of course followed a mini bubble during 2021, when the fed pushed rates way, way down, and kept them there for a long time. it created an asset bubble it elevated the market above the trend channel, so it's good we fell back into it, but 18 months is a long time, ten months of

declining, another eight months of just sitting around doing nothing. june of last year was the momentum low, and october was the final low. so i think the market is just getting impatient. the revisions are starting to get better the estimates could be all wrong, but the consensus estimate is about for an 11% gain in 2024 the fed, of course, is not done yet. we certainly got the message loud and clear in the last couple days. with the fed at 5.25, presumably going to 5.5, or even 5.75, and we think of the neutral rate around 3, 3.5, the fed is reasonably restrictive, that i think we're getting closer to the end of the cycle than the beginning, which i think is safe

to say given over five points increases. the market always looks ahead. and i think it's playing the soft landing card. we have to see if that's the right card to play. >> what would tell you that this is a new bull market >> i have been on the fence for a while, because the leadership in the market was very, very narrow we all know about the megacap names and the faang theme. so it's not -- typically what happens is you have a bear market, part of it is a reset in race as the fed races the cost of capital certainly we got that last year. the other part usually is a flush in earnings, where all the

earnings estimates just start to come down. then that washes out economically sensitive stocks, interest rate sensitive stocks, anything driven by liquidity we've soon a part of that, with the bank stocks, the meme stocks a year ago, but we haven't seen that capitulation and the broadening rally, the breadth thrust we start to see it's starting to improve equal-weighted index is starting to look better, but we don't have the confirmation yet. that's something i would be looking for, and of course many have pointed out the market is up 20% from the low. i don't really follow that as an arbitrary, you know, guidelines, but what i do know from studying history is that bear market rallies don't tend to retrace more than half the preceding

decline. maybe 60%, and the s&p 500 cap-weighted index has retraced about 64%. the equality weight maybe not as much we're still not there yet, but we're getting closer to the point where it's hard to call this a bear market rally and the only thing to call it other than a bull market is a long range the one exception is the second half of the 1940s, which is an a analog i've looked that. >> jurrien, thank you. coming up, intel up this year, but far trailing its fears. a chip analyst says this could be as bad as it gets, though plus, after an 18-month

drought, is there now an appetite for ipos? appeared as we head to break, a brought look at how the major averages are trading the dow is in positive territory, and we're back after this

welcome back a major day in washington for narendra modi, meeting president biden and top ceos seema mody is live at the white house. how is it going out there? >> reporter: the presser is expected to begin very shortly here, kelly. as we have pointed out several u.s. companies are using the visit as an opportunity to announce expansion plans into i haddia micron announcing a any plant in modi's home state. while applied materials wants to invest $400 million to launch an engineering center they've been trying to find a way to diversify away from china. india prioritizing national security on its trip

it plans to buy high-grade drones, and then the highly coveted f-14 military jet engine that's seen as a win for the u.s., because russia has been a supplier for india a new partnership on quantum computing and a.i. could also be expected especially tomorrow when google and others are expected to join that tech roundtable with modi and secretary raimondo among others. how does it affect the election next jeer. >> president biden could certainly look to india or manipulation the fact this administration has prioritized its relationship with india. that could certain bode well for him going into 2024, not to mention the 5,000 indians that

showed up here on the lawn to show support for modi. that could be potentially a winning point for biden as well. >> seema mody, thank you even intel is higher today and the shares are still down 13% in total over the past 52 weeks. my next guest says the stock may be bottoming great to see you, stacy. welcome back. >> good to be here, back. >> intel bottoming tell me more >> yeah, there's like the tactical and the structural. on the tactical front, i am of the belief that for the first time in a while, numbers into the back half could potentially be too low than, we upgraded the stock a couple months ago. i more on normalization. they were overshipping demand,

now undershipping, and that feels better they qualitative did some conferences a couple weeks ago, i would also say for intel in the near term, it gets easier to argue it's as being as they could get. they got people excited that gross margin will be back. but they have a lot of wood to chop they did an event yesterday, where they were talking about their move to make it more transparent internally and externally, what it costs to actually manufacture the wafers, and help them incentivize their own unit to be more efficient. i think people were expecting they might announce a foundry customer they didn't announce that, but at the same time the first thing in all these things is to admit

you have a problem they finally admitted that they put up numbers around the cost savings >> the ceo has practically been on an apology tour, making it clear he wants to restory this company. and your comment seems rather significant that they didn't announce a foundry. >> i didn't expect it. they pdks, kits that they need to design, those pdks are not mature, not baked yet. it's hard for any customer to say sign up until they know the road map and everything is there. i wasn't really expecting it there was some hope. they actually did say they would be announcing one later in the year that's still out there, i guess. i thought it was refreshing that, you know, pat's no longer

out there saying full steam ahead. they're admitting that they've got problems, but at least they're put ago road map together i'm not an intel bull, as you probably know, but i found at least that confession and actually putting some numbers behind it felt mildly refreshing. >> i find it almost an apology for turning slightly more bullish. at 32, where the shares are today, what is that valuation kind of price in how conservative or not is it? >> the stock bottomed around $that, $26, which is about book value. it's a bit higher. they still own a fairly sizable mobilized stake. so you can take that out and it could be even cheaper. it's not an aggressive valuation. it's got lower, certainly if people cannot grow convinced over time that their recovery path actually has some legs, but

it bottomed around book value, which was about $25, $26 it's around 30-ish, a little higher >> so i assume they're making more -- what's going on with earnings >> no, they're not they're only making a couple cents. numbers probably from the peak, they're probably down 0%, 95%, and there's some accounting changes without those accounting changes, they probably would have gone down below zero. so you can't read too much into the 12-month price-to-earnings the question is what is that normal run rate, it's still up for debate i can't remember what the street is right now it's low. >> wow, that is low. >> some of it is cyclical. some of it is internal the cyclical will get better,

and then we'll see >> stacy raskin, thank you for joining us to unpack it all. coming up, retail theft has been eating into profits one of our guest sees things improving. this is one of them. we'll debate that ahead. as we head to break, here's a look at the dow heat map pretty evenly split, but a few more decliners than advancer ibm and boeing both down more than 2%. "the exchange" is back after this

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more attention is focused on what some soft commodities having -- >> conditions have come into question in certain parts of the world, places like united states, south asia, other parts are driving at least the near to medium-term prices it's up just about 0.5%, but just touching the 200-day moving average. this is the move here, just over the last couple weeks here, that has caught traders' attention. also check out what's happening with corn. we're seeing a similar dynamic play out as well a movement higher, just trying to finish above the 50-day and trying to get to the 200-day moving average some of those conditions with drought, dryness, even

rain-related events, this particular within tracks a broader basket of soft commodities. this is the invesco deutsche bank ticker, but check out the move we have seen in this particular etf it highlights that there are some near to medium-term dyn dynamics >> we'll have more on that if it at any continues, dom. >> thanks. the mystery is over. george santos' dad and aunt guaranteed the half million bond after he was charge last month with more than a dozen federal counts several media organizations fought to unseal the document. santos' lawyer tried to fight

that effort. the man accused of killing two people outside a washington state musical fest telephone told police, he was on high on psychedelics police say kelly told them he was hallucinating when he opened fire and killed two family, believing the world was ending. nearly laugh the u.s. bees honey colonies died last year. they're crucial to the food supply scientists say climate change, pesticides and parasites all contribute to the large number of deaths. that is alarming kelly? i feel -- how many years -- what we down to? >> that colony collapse -- while they have trouble pinpointing exact sauces, they know all of this contributes, but what do we

do about it? we need them for food. >> i tried to plant native wild flowers. i can't even keep them alive for the bee es contessa, thanks share of cava are up does this indicate an end to the recent ipo drought we'll have more, next. use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across clouds, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. ...to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

welcome back they're still well above where they priced. boy pisani is taking a look at what's next. indicate rogers is drilling down kate, let's start with you it's a concept, one of the largest chains in the casual dining space that's about three times what they pull in, and the profitability, and so far, as

you menned, up over 8% and these two concepts, and the notable mediterranean are more niche, or even a sweet cream with its salads. all at least of those stocks have performed well. so what's next here it could give's indication. >> either i knee to get out th

there. >> i talked to a group that said it could be a bellwether for restaurant ipos panera could be similarly viewed from a price perspective for consumers like a cava, more casual and a bit pricier. it remain to be seen. >> bob, what about beyond the restaurant stocks snowe. >> there are some signs of green shoots, though it's still very tentative. next week three companies have announced that are fairly large. what's large $300 million range that's a little unusual. we haven't seen three like that in a long, long time fidelis insurance is a large property and reinsurance company. kodiak gas services is a natural

gas compression company. by the way, all of these are on the in yse, and savers value village. believe it or not, this is the largest for-profit thrift operation in the united states very interesting company i didn't really know much about it until i started reading about it these were all announced this week we have not seen it raised in a long, long time. i think it's only happened once in a year and a half the amazing thing here is it's holding up, so prized at $22 this week, opened at 42, and closed a bit above that. the next day it turned down.

good news, openings strong, and bad news is, trades down the next day, so everyone who got the initial allocation, they're making a lot of money investors tend to lose in the following months. and then more stable interest rates, that's a major issue. moving toward the high end of the recent trading range so

let's let's see if we get some big name in the next couple weeks. >> any comments on that, bob, as to why they haven't seized this market opportunity the cynics will say, nice, three companies, they're good, but they're niche players the big players are hesitant all of this could happen, but the bottom like is, if this is not the time, when is is we don't know, this seems an appear tune moment

bock, thank you. still ahead, are existing home sales now bottoming we'll dig into the data, and this homebuilder hitting an all-sometime high today. as we head to break, let's check on the yields that bob was just referencing with its lower left. the two-year yield around 4.8% we're back after this. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪

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you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com welcome back what a difference a year has made for the home builders pulte with an all-time high. that was our mystery charts. dr horton hitting an all-time high and now we know new homes have

been selling like hotcakes are existing homes also showing some life in diana olick joins me to dive in. >> the short an is no. maybe was a meh. they were down just over 20% from may of last year. supply is still a big problem. just 1.08 million homes for sale there were nearly twice as many homes for sale right before the pandemic hit these are based on closings, so homes that went under contract likely in march and april. mortgage rates were choppy during that period builders are saying buyers are getting used to the new normal of higher rates. we heard that last week from lennar and kb homes. both cited strong demand. >> with the lack of resale

inventory, as i mentioned, market prices starting to increase, buyer are demonstrating a higher sense of urgency than we saw earlier this year. >> we get the monthly read, there is much more supply there than on the preowned market. it will be interesting to see what happens, though, with home prices, kelly. >> i mean, listen, i could go on for ten mines why this is all so fascinating, but we're trying to figure out what's going on with the cycle. housing has fallen by 35% by activity normally we would say great, classic sign that the economy is next, but now we have signs that it's not getting dramatically worse. you wonder if it's start to improve, will that help the overall economy at times other areas are weakness >> i think the confusing part was in the prices. they are started to fall back

last summer, but now we're starting to see them gain steam again, because of this supply and demand issue that's when you talk about what are they norm at drivers of the economy, this is not normal. we have never seen supply this low and demand this strong, and the housing market just so out of whack with that, because you would think prices would be pulling back it's not happening right now over the last couple months, we have seen prices increasing. >> the other thing i think about is it will take a falling ten-year yield, to have mortgage rates come down. but the ten-year will only fall if the outlook is a lot worse. if it gets worse, that unfreezes the market, so that the market gets better, could that also be a counterbalancing -- we're never been through a pertain like this before. >> the ten-year would have to fall really dramatically people locked into their homes,

it's not a mortgage locked, the majority of homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% even if the rate come back a bit, it will never get back to where it was we don't think the fed will tro to zero, so it's just going to be when they decide, well, that move up to maybe 5% from 3% isn't as bad as it is now. >> especially because, with qt and everything, you have the ten-year plunging, and qe starting -- i don't know we'll see. diana, thanks very much. still ahead, retailer from f footlocker to dollar tree are worried about theft shrink, but one analyst lays out the names best pitneosiod to benefit we'll talk about that, next. all. a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is...

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welcome back retailers from kohl's to cvs shrink is leading to lower than expected profits

target, dollar tree, home depot and walmart, more than half of retailers say they have seen rising shrink. we could see some improvement for some of these companies. michael, welcome >> thanks, kelly your note came out a day or two ago. no way the companies he's talking to still think it's major problem for them and it's not going away any time soon >> the market tends to look forward six to 12 months and we think this factor will improve in the coming future for three reasons. one, shrink has been up and down historically we went back and looked at 20 years of conference call transcripts, mention of shrink go up and down two, retailers are taking action

to address this by implementing technology and other factors we spent time with the leadership at dollar tree yesterday and one of the products that they're seeing very high levels of shrink is men's underwear. i didn't ask but he said eventually overtime they'll take that out. and third, a new law will be put in place that require high-volumes sellers on third marketplaces to register that will have more accountability so over time we think this will be a tail wind for the profitability of several retailers. >> you're right a big change in legislation like that could finally tackle this problem, to use your example if dollar tree stops selling men's underwear that doesn't sound like a very good business proposition. >> a proposition that's going to

fall on all of us either retailers are going to take these products out or they're going to pass along increased costs. a very steep one that's borne by the very men and women who work in retail. they'll pass that cost along to you and i as consumers so we're going to be the ones who ultimately bear the burden of that because they're in the business of trying to maximize their profitability and they'll do that over time. >> they have to stay in business and if people are stealing their inventory they'll have to do something. if you're right and things get better in the next couple of months because of legislative changes or otherwise, who will benefit the most >> the dollar stores have been hammered on this shrink. dollar tree recently lowered its earnings by more than 5% due to this factor alone. so as it gets better, dollar tree should be a

disproportionate beneficiary because of that. target has seen more than 200 basis point decline in its operating margin from shrink over the last few years. some improvement in this factor alone can help get from its current level to 7% over time. a couple of names that stand to disproportionately benefit >> 2020, 30% of shrink was external theft 20% was internal theft do you think internal theft is still a problem? >> so i think that's a function of where we are in the labor market because the labor market is so tight, attrition or turnover for a lot of retailers is very high. so when you gbring in new

employees, you're subjected to shrink both external and internal that's going to have the unintended impact of benefiting. >> are employers add ing -- >> what they're doing is employeeswork ing with that. to cost effectively tackle this issue. they'll tackle it over time. it's really not a question of not when but if. >> thank you appreciate it. lot of buzz about this new note. thanks for tuning in and to follow my newsletter on my economy, sign up on cnbc.com up next on "por ncweluh," we'll take more home builders and why there could be more upside

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welcome to "power lunch," everybody. coming up, india's prime minister visiting the white house today and we'll also sit down with some of the biggest names if technology, are those companies ready to diversify their manufacturing out of china and into india the investment opportunities there. plus, sports, absolutely crucial for media companies because you need to watch them live, but can sports also be a.i. proof we'll talk to an analysts who's bullish about sports. but first a check on the markets. shares of boeing are dragging down the dow which is 23 points in the red and the nasdaq is