here together. you know, it's not my time yet, but i just can't wait to see them again. [music playing] ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your friday headlines. european equity markets on pace to end on a downbeat note. siemens unit shares sink after the sharp blow to the forecast the cfo insists the balance sheet is still strong and 1 billion euro in costs will be

spread over the next few years. gfk reaching settlement over the heart burn drug causes cancer sending it to the stop of the stoxx 600. and uk retail sales surprise in may rising 0.3% on the month while the bank of england delivers a hike and the bank of england governor andrew bailey spoke out. >> we will do what is necessary to bring inflation down to target good morning welcome to "street signs." we have a jam packed show for you. i want to bring you latest of the flash pmi numbers. the composite number has come in at 50.3.

this is disappointing relative to the forecast of 50.5. it shows deceleration from may the may composite eurozone number at 50.8 as for the split with manufacturing and services, manufacturing june number has come in at 43.6. again, disappointing relative to the forecast of 44.8 it shows deceleration from where we were back in may of 44.8. services which has for so long been the stronger part of the pmi numbers has disappointed relative to expectations june has come in at 52.4 sharp deceleration from may when services was at 55.1 the downward pressure in services is coming through we saw it with the likes of germany and france a short while ago. there is reaction in the market. euro is up .80%.

the catalyst for this was the french pmi at the top of the hour followed by german pmi numbers with similar themes with the deceleration of the services number the aggregate eurozone numbers are disappointing as well. french private sector activity flipped into contraction territory. it posted a pmi reading of 48. below the forecast of 52 german flash pmi missed expectations, but remained in expansion territory of 50.8. the manufacturing sector posted a 37-month low at 41 a lot to unpack here let's get to chris williamson from s&p global market chris, the activity indicators from europe are beginning to

slow again >> good morning. yes, these are worrying numbers. weak all around france and germany and the eurozone as a whole which we pack into the flash release. down sharply france seeing the worst performance where the headwinds are higher interest rates and rising cost of living and worries of the outlook exacerbated by the strike action in the spring beating through. nevertheless, don't be fooled by that this is a more general slowdown that we had and we warned about last month because we saw demand conditions weakening >> about what is happening in the services sector and you said there were strikes in france the services slowdown isn't just specific to france we see it in germany as well as the eurozone composite numbers what is the catalyst >> the catalyst of this is, of course, higher interest rates.

the rise of cost of living taking their toll. in the prime months, we see the service sector drive growth which is a nice uplift we warned we have seen these before when economies reopened the post-pan democrdemic tailwid spending on hotels and restaurants and travel and tourism. we were warning if past history is anything to go by, this is not going to last. in indeed, we saw that part of the economy start to fade. that consumer growth spurt we had has lost its legs. it has now been consumed with the gloom that per vvadepervades we see companies say bookings are down customers in the consumer market are pulling back on spending we have concerns about the outlook and pockets being hit by

the high cost of living and increasingly worries of higher interest rates and higher borrowing costs. you are seeing the impact of higher rates come through quite clearly in the data now. >> chris, despite that, what one thing that struck out to me from the german press release, at least, is you talk about service sector costs and selling prices continuing to rise sharply even though we are beginning to see the slowdown come through in the services space, how comprises are still rising >> there's a lag effect. the service sector includes financial services where higher interest rates are beating through to higher prices charged. there's an initial impact when you hike rates, it beats through to higher charges for services globally, financial services, one of the biggest areas of

inflation pressure at the moment don't forget higher interest rates are a cost es in the service sector -- especially in the service sector we have service sector selling pressure inflation running at historic high rates. june saw the biggest cooling we have ever seen even though the service sector is coming down sharply by historical standards, manufacturing prices with charges leaving the factory are falling to the fastest level the worry are is about service sector inflation even that is coming down sharply now. >> you've got to wonder if the ecb is looking at numbers and taking notes with the hawkishness from the central bank final question to you about business confidence. what is confidence looking like for the second half of the year? >> the outlook is firm for the

coming year. the only opinion question in the pmi. that has come down again in june the lowest we have seen so far this year. it is beginning to run the worrying levels by historic levels firms most worried about the outlook. the biggest concerns they have and they cite and reasons they give uss is the higher impact n the borrowing costs. the recession is inevitable and what it means for the customers which means pull back on spending we see companies start to address this if you look at manufacturers in buying raw materials for production, that is now falling at the fastest rate since 2009 barring those lockdowns from pandemic times they are scaling back and this is also feeding through to employment growth. employment growth is starting to

slow castas well. when that materializes in the data, that is when the ecb will see a turning point. >> a lot to review there chris, thank you for coming on the show to talk about the rather disappointing pmi numbers. chris williamson from s&p global market let's look at the heat map there is a lot of red on the board behind me. a lot of the stocks are reacting to the weaker macro data coming through. the bigger data is the pull back into the euro of .80 bund rallying. the stoxx 600 as a whole is down the 50 basis point hike from the bank of england and norges bank went for a 50 basis point hike still the hawkishness from the

central bank community is very much present let's look at the individual boards the only one trading in positive is the swiss index dax is down 1% a lot going on in the space with siemens. we will talk more about that on the show cac 40 is down .40%. we see downward pressure by the banks. the ftse 100 is still reacting to the hawkishness from the bank of england 7,600. far away from the levels seen earlier in the week. basic resources and home builders are always dragging the index today. switching to sectors this is where the leadership is coming from. health care and gsk is looking at positive lawsuit settlements. food and beverage up .6%

we had stronger uk retail sales numbers. that is boosting that sector on the flip side, oil and gas is struggling spot oil under pressure. banks is down 1.3% as well. coming up on "street signs," shares of siemens tumble after the issues with the wind turbine unit we'll discuss more after the break. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers

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welcome back to "street signs. corporate news for you thyssenkrupp is set to strayed with the price range of $19 for the ipo. you can see the reaction right

now of the now. down 1.4%. one stock we are focused on is siemens energy the ceo says the setback from quality issues at the wind turbine unit is more severe than possible the firm withdrew the guidance for the full year saying it conducted review of the business and found production problems that could cost it more than 1 billion euro this as the ceo cannot rule out design problems as the cause of the issue. the stock, as you see, is down sharp live 31.5% i'm happy to say nicholas greene is joining me. good morning to you. issues at siemens have been flagged for a while. 1 billion euro is larger than many market participants antic anticipated. is this a hole that siemens

energy can climb back from >> i imagine they can climb back from it, yes let's be clear there's a 17 billion cerservice order book which is delivering service on installed wind farms and turbines for a number of years ahead. five years ahead and sometimes ten-year contracts to discover a handful of components are not working as planned and you need to replace, that is a large liability to take on. they indicated somewhere between 15 and 30% of the installed fleet is where some of the component failureses are occurring. that is a big hit and it does leave us with a question mark where the liability ends with luck, when they report back in the beginning of august, they put brackets around the scale of the obligations ahead of them. certainly it is an alarmingly

large hit. i think, you know, it has taken the market by surprise >> the scale of the liability, but let's talk about accountability these issues seemed to surprise the market and keep popping up not flagged before who should enter responsibilities for entering the deal without doing a full due diligence with the potential problems arising >> that is an excellent question at the company level, clear, t - clearly, they have to take responsibility there was an issue on the company call that issues were swept under the carpet that he used you may be able to isolate this to design not carefully thought through or not enough internal diligence. to be fair to siemens energy, you have to take it to the industry level

the wind turbine industry has gone through a rapid pace of expa expansion. we achieved the lower cost of wind partly with bigger turbines that brings certain risks without operational testing time or time in use it does appear somewhat unfair that the entire risk of the commercially immature industry sits on the turbine manufacturing themselves whether there was a cost to the supply chain, it is too early to tell as you know from this, people like gamesa does a lot of inhouse and they do it all differently. again, you have a slightly immature supply chain situation. we need to raise questions what is the right buy versus build strategy and the right risk versus reward when it comes to putting out big pieces of kit

and how much of the risk/reward is shared with the wind farm. >> to what extent is this a siemens energy or siemens gamesa issue? this is a drive to the cleaner transition for europe issue. >> we have to average that putting in new machinery onshore or offshore wind farms and the pace of the machinery has put us in uncharted territory wind turbine is not the most complicated piece of machinery out there. at gamesa, critical components of violation, you expect with

any industry starting out and within the first 20 years of life, you would iron out wrinkles like this throws hard to tell at the moment my best guess is this is an industry wide issue. it wasn't siemens gamesa is a bad operator actually, operational data and use is limited you know, it doesn't put an end to the ambitions of wind and renewable power in europe. nothing of the kind. it reminds us in an emerging industry, risk/reward balance. i would say that risk is sitting on the turbine p makers that could be a barrier to further expansion. >> clear nicholas, thank you for coming on the show. big moves in siemens energy.

nicholas green europe needs to adapt to investors requirements to thrive in a period of transformation. ey says investors are optimistic about the prospects, but weary of the threats i have to say that the managing partner from ey is joining me on set. julie, you published a report and a lot of it is about europe and what it can do to attract more innvestmentinvestment how have the trends been the last couple years in light of the war in ukraine >> it has been difficult not just due to the war in ukraine, but on the back of the covid crisis we saw fdi come down from previous levels of the what we saw in- 2021, we expected them o return they didn't. it is 1% higher from the year

prior. >> what is the main issues that investors have cited why is it so low >> investors see instability and a risk and rising interest rates are problematic. that delayed the return of investment we see which is why we put together the plan saying no time for complacency right now. >> tell us about the main points in the plan. what should be the priorities then >> we outlined six points across europe i would start by saying we really think europe has a great opportunity to become a regional hub building on diversity and building on stability. stability economically and stability from the regulatory environment by really focusing on the new industries. we said sme is a huge opportunity. they generate 100 million jobs across europe. if we get it right and allowing them to attract capital and

making regulation easier, it could be a clear growth driver look at industries around r&d of t the european countries we need to do more to attract them to have a european industrial policy. >> the first thing i want to point out is we are a business show we look at the stock market and where the leadership is coming from within the u.s., a handful of mega cap, mostly tech stocks, are leading the per tomformance in europe, it is the old world luxury stocks driving the stock market it is not the tech sector. how do you attract the right investment into those industries of the future than of the past >> one is the need to ensure european capital can help the companies blossom and grow and

drive more to the capital market union and ensure as companies reach their peak and ensuring they have the right focus. a lot of the investors said they need real r&d credits and digitalization to make them positive to stay in the european market. >> that was my second point. the regulatory landscape europe does tend to lead regulation for good and for bad. the case of crypto, they have been leading the way a.i. as well even sam altman saying if they don't want us, we won't bring it to what extent is a healthy regulatory landscape will attract or deter in europe >> the investors have told us healthy regulation is seen as a

posi positivity it is stable you know what you get. you are right, if europeans go too far on the balance, they risk the issues on technology and inhibiting their use >> so, we just had a guest on the show you were here listening talking about siemens energy europe had been leading the way on the transition. now we are seeing some very practical setbacks i wonder to what extent fdi flows will be determined by the amount of subsidies and state aid rules that come into play. there is a lot of competition from the u.s. with the inflation reduction act. >> absolutely. that is why europe needs to step up rising interest prices are a real issue and access to dec decarbonized energy is an issue.

>> i think that is very apparent with we need the business models to work ju julie, thank you for being on the show managing parter ner from ey. and coming up on the show, we bring you the latest uk pmi numbers. that is all coming up after the break. when we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money. shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless. pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and it's ready to go. our costs for shipping were cut in half. just like that. shipstation. the #1 choice of online sellers. go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free.

well come back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines and business activity in the eurozone disappointing in the month of june as pmi data comes in short of expectation. siemens energy shares sink 30% after gamesa delivered a sharp blow to the forecast the cfo insists the balance sheet is strong and 1 billion euro in cost will be spread over the next few years uk retail sales surprise in may rising 0.3% for the month

while the bank of england delivers a bumper .50% hike and andrew bailey downplayed the risk of recession. half an hour ago, we kicked off the show with the disappointing pmi numbers. we get the uk pmi numbers at 52.8 for composite in june slightly lower than expectations just to give the manufacturing and services breakdown june flash manufacturing at 46.2 showing a decline from back in may at 47.1. the services have come in at 53.7 against 55.2 in may all of these components showing decline from the prior month that is reflective of the

eurozone pmi and german pmi and french pmi earlier in the morning showing deceleration not just in manufacturing, but services services have been a bright spot for some of the pmi activity indicators for the last couple months now things are beginning to turn the demand outlook is beginning to weaken as well as concerns about the order book looking ahead. these are interesting macro data to bear in mind. especially in light of the bank of england's move yesterday of the hiking 50 basis points you have to think on the one hand the bank of england has an inflation problem with the high inflation numbers, but looking ahead the data has started to slow some signs of the economic weakness are beginning to emerge despite the better than expected retail sales numbers this morning. let's recap what the bank did. the boe hiked rates by 50 basis

points thursday taking the base rate to 5% that is the highest in 15 years. money markets are pricing in 75 basis points of tightening of the next two meetings and goldman predicting a .50 hike in august jeremy hunt will meet with banks today amid the grows crisis of mortgages after it hit 6% for the first time since 2008 for rates. governor bailey reconfirmed the commitment >> we will get inflation back to the target to do that, i have to be clear, and we expect inflation to come down this year and to do that, we cannot continue to have the current level of wage increases and we can't have companies seeking to rebuild profit margins which means prices go up

at the current rates i would expect inflation to come down and it is important then that the price setting and wage setting reflects that. the current levels, i'll be honest, are unsustainable. >> rishi sunak backed up the bank's decision. >> it is right that the bank of england takes that decision back to 2%. it is right they deliver on that it is the best thing for the country. no short-term easy fix no short cut anyone standing here telling you there is a short cut is not being straight with you. those of us who are responsible for this have to take the responsible decisions in the long-term interests of the country. that's what i'm doing and the bank of england is doing >> the uk market continues to digest the bank of england decision to hike by 50 basis points the data that has come out this morning, the pmi numbers, have

started to show a slowdown in the services sector which has been holding up the uk economy something to watch out for it wasn't just the uk pmi numbers, but the eurozone pmi is lower for the month of may and lower than expectations as well. you see the cac 40 is down .30%. dax is down .20% siemens energy stock is down more than 30% on problems at the gamesa unit. let me drill deep neaer in the stocks the chemicals space and covestro is up 1% today this is after the german plastics producer rejected an initial takeover bid from abu dhabi national bank. it approved them to discuss acquisition of 10 billion euro

it is open to a deal which would include keeping the firm independent if offers better terms. something to watch here. it doesn't seem like they throwing this acquisition out of the question we have to see if they actually do manage to agree on a higher price. in pharma space, gsk reaches a settlement which is confidential which means the case will not go to trial and now be dismissed. the stock is up 6% this morning. ocado shares are up after the company was in talks with amazon over a possible bid. the times first reported that the giant was set to offer 800 pence per share. 800 pence being a sharp premium to where the stock is trading at 520 pence. today, we are trading 8% lower

at the bottom of the ftse 100. let's look at fx a lot of focus on the pound. we are slipping this morning down .30%. despite the larger than expected rate hike from the bank of england yesterday. perhaps investors taking note of weakness in the data we had a massive move in gilt yields and european income on the back of the weaker pmi numbers. 10-year bund is 13 points lower. gilt is tracking lower, too. the currencies are reflecting that the euro is down .80% in response to that data. as for u.s. futures, this is the picture for u.s. markets ahead all three majors are opening up in negative territory. down about 20 points for the s&p. the dow is seen opening down 90 points the u.s. investors are digesting the fed chair jay powell's testimony the last couple days

and comments surrounding the possibility of not just one, but two rate hikes from the fed for the rest of the year. the city of london is looking to make it easier to redevelop older offices for new uses such as hotels. despite concerns of the real estate sector, the city of london corporation says demand will grow sharply in the next decade, but companies focusing on environmental credentials may have less interest in older buildings. the valesco group is acquiring the tower in paris and that is the largest office deal in france since 2021. i'm happy to say the ceo is joining me right now great to have you on there is certainly a lot of talk about commercial real estate let me ask you about this deal i believe this is the largest office deal since 2021 i'm interested to hear your view on why the acquisition makes

sense. >> thank you, joumanna pleasure to be here and talking to you and your audience ultimately for us, there are several acquisitions in the space and within the commercial real estate space. you are right. this is the largest office deal with european markets this year. largest in france since 2021 for us, where it makes sense, is where we acquire a high quality asset and coming out of the pricing dislocation to deliver a stronger return. >> was it difficult to get funding for the deal >> we happen to be adept within that space what was particularly interesting and this is why we refer to the special situation is we were able to capture the debt package from 2018 we have been able to finance this based on 2018 rates rather than 2023 rates. it is benefitting from 2023

pricing which allows us to achieve that >> it is both valuation and ability to finance a levels there is a lot of talk facing commercial real estate headwinds right now. san francisco having issues and hong kong skyscrapers being 25% leased what makes you confident that the outlook for your acquisition is positive? >> i think there is a real dichotomy within the commercial real estate space. the high quality assets cater for the needs of today and it is in short supply. this is one of those there is a lot of speak of the hotelification of the office space. if this could create return on experience for individuals and talent, then that becomes the

place that is in high demand and all they are trying to do is attract and retain best in class talent that talent wants to self actualize in the space so this tower embeds all of those of those. rents are going up occupiers are jumping on top of each other to get to the space b-class space will see the downward spiral. >> what about the work from home and hybrid working how is that impacting office pace >> it is an evolution rather than revolution. for me, frankly, we are seeing this with the top tier occupiers across the globe your asset needs to be fit for

purpose ultimately what we were seeing before in terms of the trends where people were being crammed like a can of sardines, that is not going to work you look at the top banks and law firms and tech companies everyone wants to be back in the office you are looking at four or five days for the avant garde firms now people are better together and that office again has to be able to provide an advantage to the individual that is in there. >> how are the prices offered to the companies different from where they were pre-pandemic >> in terms of the rents >> yes >> what is interesting is pre-pandemic, if you had to call it a b-class office space to offer, there will be a rent someone would take it. now, unless you are a or a plus

to demand rent and going to mayfair in central london and closer to home, we see more than 2 00 pounds per square foot rent however, the b-class stock is not able to get a tenant the answer to the question is if your office is not fit for purpose, you won't be able to rent >> we are a business show. we spend a lot of time looking at markets when there is a down trend, everything gets thrown out together to what extent are you concerned that people will get worried about commercial real estate and the write down of b-class or not the best quality real estate how does that impact what you do given you are trying to be disc discerning >> the analogy of throwing the baby out with the bath water we saw that post-2008 and the

issues that could be capitalized on when we bought this tower yesterday, the last recorded cap rate or yield in the location was 100 basis points tighter there is a capitalization of the price dislocation because everything is thrown out what i would say for assets that are high quality or a road map with a clear path to clearing the credentials being tomorrow's office today means take advantage of the price dislocation now. this is what i would say to investors or make sure you save enough for us to acquire. >> i guess for you guys, this market is going to present a lot of buying opportunities. anything else you are planning >> yeah. we continue to look for the mission critical assets that they crave for and it is mission

critica critical you know you have the down side critical to protect it our commercial real estate pieces are interesting healthcare is one of them. perhaps that is a conversation for another day. we feel the real estate space right now with the dislocations a compelling time to invest sele selectively. >> straight from the horse's mouth. great to have you here on the show. >> thank you very much my pleasure. >> ceo from the valesco group. we discussed a lot on the show today. from macro energy and of course, the commercial real estate market if you have views, get involved in the conversation. tweet me @cnbcjou. switching note u.s. officials announced a tragic end to the titan submersible with all five passengers likely dead

tom costello filed this report >> reporter: heartbreak. after four days after searching for the sub named titan and the five people on board, the canadian deep sea robot spotted debris from the sub 1600 feet from the wreckage of the titanic. the destination it was headed for on sunday. >> the debris is consistent with a catastrophic loss of the pressure chamber >> reporter: a catastrophic implosion in the pressure at nearly 13,000 feet below sea level. >> the size of the debris field is consistent with that implosion in the water >> reporter: in the statement, the sub's owner said our hearts are with the five souls. we grieve the lives lost stockton rush, hamish harding,

experts paul jean and the pakistani businessman and his son. the team was terrified, but went along to bond with his father. >> he had the sense this was not -- this was not okay he just -- he was not comfortable. >> reporter: the coast guard said the u.s., canada, france and britain will have to determine who will investigate and whether to victims. so close to the titanic where 1,500 people died. the company had been diving to the titanic since 2021 charging customers as much as $250 25 $250,000 for the experience. some have long warned the sub was not certified. a committee of 38 wrote to ceo

rush asking him to adhere to the safety guidelines for ultimate success. in 2021, discovery channel hosted josh gates and went against taking the sub for the tv show. >> i felt it needed more time and more testing >> reporter: investors don't yet know why the sub imploded. it may have surrendered to the pressure at that level maybe a crack after so many deep dives. >> it is hard to imagine it is one empire state building made of lead sitting on top of you at that level. >> reporter: in a cruel twist of fate, stockton rush's wife lost relatives in the titanic more than 100 years ago now her husband lost his life in the same deep waters my o e store lfgang p

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welcome back to "street signs. since launching the iconic

running shoe in 2010, swiss sportswear brand has grown to be a global business. among the company's latest offering is a recyclable shoe through subscription service to find out more about the innovation to the brand, charlotte went to the headquarters in zurich and spoke to the co-founder. >> when the engineer and i kicked off this idea, we said could we reinvent cushioning and how do we go about it? if we cut the garden hose apart and put it on the existing running shoe >> reporter: to stand out and invest heavily and the engineering remains at the heart of the products. he showed me inside the room known as the maker space where the team feels concept shoes

which are monsters or frankensteins. >> it is lot of hands on you come in here and take pieces and parts and just go and try. at the end of the day, in this room, especially in this room, it is all about the difscovery. >> reporter: despite the hands-on approach, the development process here is a real team effort. >> when you grow, you add super smart people scie scientists, engineers and athletes with we need the feedback >> reporter: to meet demand for the sustainable products, on launched the recyclable shoe every six months every part of the shoe is made from the same material group allowing it to be broken down

and recycled >> we make it from a cast. through different processes, we figured out how to make the shoe, not just the upper or outsole, but the entire shoe we can turn back into a new shoe when we first had the innovation of recycle, one question was how do we get the product back the subscription is a way to get the product back and the consumer thinks about the product with a life and should come back to the brand that creates it. >> you can see much more from on, including the partnership with roger federer, who else, and why it is bucking the trend of brick and mortar. that is in "marketing media money" here on cnbc. u.s. president joe biden and

prime minister narendra modi announced a number of business deals. the white house rolled out the red carpet on tuesday and the day started with a welcoming ceremony and ended with a state dinner attended ed by tim tookd others the u.s. and india announced a number of deals with semiconductors and space collaboration. a quick look at u.s. futures now. this is what the day ahead looks like s&p is opening weaker down 23 points dow is 100 points weaker on the session. a lot of focus on the fed chair jay powell's testimony let's tell you about the latest. powell said smaller lenders may be exempt from requirements from the banking sector in the second day of testimony on powell assets below $100 billion will

not be effected by the rules this move comes after turmoil in the banking sector triggered by the collapse of silicon valley bank in march. addressing the committee, powell said higher capital requirements for u.s. lenders may weigh on lending. >> a tradeoff on making the banks more safer and secure and resilient. you want them to be strong particularly the largest banks to lend money and continue to function during stressful situations it is with bank capital and that will be a tradeoff with the cost of credit and how much safety. european markets are ending with a risk off. dax is down this morning siemens is down 30% on the renewables part of the

portfolio. cac 40 is down .20%. we see declines in auto. renault is a name in focus the ftse 100 has been at the center of all of the action the last 24 hours. bank of england rate hike. 50 basis points. better than expected retail sales, but weaker pmi. and for markets week to date, all of the indices in the red. ftse 100 down 2% for the week. dax down 2.8 ftse mib is down 2.2%. not a pretty week as far as european markets i will leave you with the quick picture of how u.s. futures are trading as we head out that is it for my show i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. jpmorgan chase warnings of the second half down turn ahead. and janet yellen on the other side of the bet. shifting outlook for u.s. recession before year's end. and in washington, a star studded state dinner as ceos from tim cook to satya nadella meet wit