india is -- great seeing you guys >> thank you, sir. >> great to see you too. >> that was seema modi at the white house moments ago. apple ceo tim cook saying he sees a big opportunity in india. apple opened its first retail store in india earlier this year that's going to do it for "halftime. "the exchange" starts right now. >> frank, thank you. and hello everyone i'm deirdre boza, in for kelly evans. here is what is ahead. a lazy bull market with plenty of dips. that is how one of our guests describes the market and florida is about to ban some foreign citizens from buying property in the state billionaire real estate investigator don people says it will have a big impact on the state's real estate market and the crazy cruise rally, some stocks up 100%, doubling

this year. and one of our guests says there's still room to run. he makes his case and brings us his top pick we begin with today's markets. bob pisani we are looking at the end of multiweek streaks if this current action holds >> we hit a 52-week high on the s&p 500 last week, and we're off of that, but not by much we were, oh, 4425 a week ago in the s&p, maybe 60 points off that down 1 1/2% for the week or so dow industrial was 34,400 last week, so 600 points or so off. about 1.5% this week and the nasdaq, that was 13,750 last week. so, definitely off of the highs recently, but not dramatically so what i see is all 11 sectors are down, very defensive tone as well so, health care and consumer staples, which have been lagging

in this giant tech rally we've been having are holding up comparatively better, down but holding up better. the stuff that was strong, semiconductors last week, strong, coming down all week metals and mining had been strong all week also coming down these are concerns about somewhat higher rates, may slightly slow the economy if we have the higher rates. terms of the dow, very defensive than that. there's your leader. does it get any more defensive than that, folks look at the dow laggards at this point, and you can see here's your tech names, sales forest here's your banking names, goldman, caterpillar, industry stocks, cyclical sectors like industrials and interest rate sensitive ones like banks, all a little bit weaker. so, there's a thing -- the whole layout, essentially what's going on here. consumer discretionary has been holding up very well on the leaderboard you get all of these home building stocks that have been having a fabulous

month overall. these are new highs for pute group and dr horton. amazon has held up well. lowe's and some retailers comped out last week, and they are looking toppy at the this point. finally, we do have a russell reconstitution today, the russell 1000 and 2,000, some of the other indexes around the russell will be reconstituted at the end of the day expect a lot of volume but hopefully not a lot of parmoves. recession or no recession? neither one of my next guests is changing their investment strategy one is calling this market a lazy bull, with plenty of dips and opportunities to buy ahead joining me now -- and bill stone, chief investment owner at the glen view trust company joining us on the phone. gentlemen, welcome thank you both for being here. bill, first of all, maybe lay out what is a lazy bull market,

and what does that mean exactly for investors' portfolios? >> i think a lazy bull market is to be contrast with raging bull market you think of raging bull coming out of 2009, 2011, things going down and go up the lazy bull market is more akin to what you saw in the '70s you had the oil embargo. during that, like, three-year period, it was more of a w shape. now, in inflation adjusted terms, it was much worse because you had rising inflation, so the real returns were negative in terms of trying to translate into what we might see ahead, we believe we're going to see some continued strength with the markets over the longer term but with plenty of opportunities to beat dollar cost averaging back into something more aligned with your strategic allocations >> so, bill, let me come to you then what prevents this from becoming a raging sort of bull market

and how do we -- how does that change your recession outlook for the year >> it certainly could become a raging bull market i think it is tough to not at least be worried about recession. i would just point to the new york fed has a recession probability gauge that's up at 71% right now. through its entire history, it's never hit 71% and we haven't had a recession in the next 12 months it doesn't mean it has to happen because it was really all based on the yield curve but i would say the odds are there. so, i think you do have to be ready for the possibility or maybe i would even argue the likelihood that we'll have some earnings difficulty here >> now, one of the most resilient parts of the economy has been the consumer, right, brian? so, can they remain strong what do you foresee over the next six to 12 months? >> we're a little worried about the consumer, thinking they're going to be getting a little

exhausted as far as those credit lines they have. there's not a lot of stimulus in the savings accounts anymore credit card debt has been rising at a frankly unsustainable pace. maybe a lot of the strength we've seen in the services sector is really going to begin to falter. there's not a lot to endear yourselves to thinking about manufacturing, doing the heavy lifting, just given the relative size of services versus, say, good spending. we could see the economic type of recession a little tough going, muddling along. we would point out, though, we're already in the midst of an earnings recession that doesn't typically happen. you usually have earnings falling with the economy but this time seems like earnings fell first. doesn't mean there isn't still a down side, but maybe that's what the market bottoms back in october was pricing in was the earnings recession we're going through. >> so, brian, i've been interested in this idea of tech as a new defensive, right? this is different than cycles we've seen in the past because the mega caps just have so much

cash on their balance sheets they have this huge shift as well as a generative ai. what do you think about that can you treat tech, at least the mega caps, as defensives in a portfolio? >> in a way, you do have to i think distinguish between those techs where the valuations are just at nose bleed levels. there was a big correction back towards the end of 2022. these are more like cash cows now as opposed to just pinning your hopes on future growth. it's very much different than what we saw during the tech bubble, where there was really no solid fundamental foundation for the prices back then now they at least have cash. and one of the things that we like is looking for cash cows. >> right and you can almost consider some of these names, apple, google, as such. bill, last question to you i want to look at one of your picks. you like anheuser-busch. is that because you think that sort of the troubles are in the past is there a new catalyst? why do you like it? >> no, i think it's -- you know, we have started to see volumes,

bud light volumes in the u.s. stabilize a bit. you know, it's really -- it looks very cheap relative to history. you know, tsetting aside the politics of it, that brand was dinged a little bit in the u.s they have a lot of other large and strong beer brands both in the u.s. and globally. so, i do think there's an opportunity there. also the secondary side of that is this thought that we do have a recession. typically alcohol consumption is not all -- people do trade down. but i do think that there's a little beam in there that they may not necessarily benefit but not get hurt as badly as other people if in fact we see that economic downturn. >> you can see on the chart on the screen that it's come back a little bit over the last month or so. brian jacobson and bill stone, thank you very much for being with us. >> thank you it is time for today's "tech

check. new momentum for the ipo market recently the renaissance ipf said performance in the market is up 25% year-to-date despite the listings over the past 18 months private valuations, they're still being pressured. they typically lag though. my next guest knows a thing or two about that forge global is a secondary marketplace where insiders can buy and sell shares of companies including coveted names like spacex, reddit, and stripe kelly, it's great. we both happen to be in new york at the same time that worked out. >> good to see you >> i'm interested in particular in late stage companies, as well as saying instacart. that tells us something about the ipo market and their readiness to go, or investors' readiness to receive the companies. what are you seeing? >> this moment we refer to as the great reset. >> okay. >> we just put data out that shows the 10-year bull that ran

through 2021 is undergoing a pretty massive set of changes, both investors' behavior in companies raising money, and valuations >> what do those valuations look like at the late stage i remember last year during this great reset, instacart took its valuation down a number of times internally has that been coming back? >> yes overall the market is off by 61%. it's important to know that half of the large private tech hasn't raised money in between a year and two years. so, a lot of the discount were based on pricing we saw in 2021. but in the last period, in the last quarter, we've seen some interesting changes. we've seen about a 3% decrease in pricing, which is a significant slowdown, and about 28% of the forge private market index, which is the 75 most liquid names, are actually trading up in q2 we haven't seen this in two years. >> right

>> so, there is a shift underway >> so, that's a signal that maybe it's coming back there's interest in these companies. do you think that will lead -- i know we've seen ipos not necessarily in the tech space. but do you think tech ipos are next to come back? >> well, we're watching it the data suggests -- there's probably two other data points i mentioned. in terms of what we saw in q2 on the index, definitely seeing movement there we're also seeing the bit ask spread now has shrunk to 17% >> right >> in the private markets, that's still high. normal highly liquid periods are around 11 or 12. those are down at 17, coming down from their highs at 26. we're also seeing -- at 2-year highs. >> what are the most active investors at the peak in 2021 was tiger global there was a report recently that it opened its full portfolio to individual bids in the private markets. have you seen that what does that do to the private

markets when such a big player comes onto the scene and looking to sell? >> it's a really interesting trend, but it only tells half of the story. when you look at the large institutions that were there buying in 2021 -- and a lot of new entrants have come into the market in the last two or three years. hedge funds are fully in the private market >> no longer tourists. >> right so, what you're seeing now is if you invested at those valuations in '21, if you're looking at those same companies in 2023, you would be crazy not to look at buying as well. so, yes, there are large players invested in '21 selling, but they're also buying in '23 >> last question for you, any ai startups looking to sell on the markets? it seems the bifurcation that late stage has seen values come down, but some i've talked to complain about a bubble already in the ai space for private companies. >> yeah, it's definitely seeing its hot moment right now and like in any other sector, there's lots of names that come out at the beginning, and there are usually two or three

winners. so, at this point, you know, everyone wants to buy ai it's hard to buy >> right okay hard to buy even in the secondary markets. thank you so much for being with us appreciate it. see you back in san francisco. coming up, florida is about to make it illegal for people from certain countries to buy real estate in the state don peebles says the law is not only discriminatory. it will also have a big impact on florida's real estate market. he joins us live next. plus the heat wave in texas is not letting up. the electrical grid operator asking generac to help stabilize the brand. the ceo joins us ahead as we head to break, let's get a quick check on markets you can see they're still under a bit of pressure in terms of equities the dow industrial is do you know .4 of 1%. the russell 2000 down by .1% the exchange is back af this

>> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking. is it possible? with comcast business...it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time,

i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. so, you've got the power of xfinity at home. now take it outside with xfinity mobile. call 1-800-miracle and schedule like speed? it's the fastest mobile service around. with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 bucks a line per month. that's hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys. save hundreds a year on your wireless bill

over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. and right now, get up to $1000 off select samsung phones. switch today. welcome back to "the exchange." let's take a look at markets right now. still under a bit of pressure, the nasdaq composite, still the laggard, all s&p sectors, they are in the red today

but real estate and energy are the big losers this week, down nearly 4%. health care and discretionary, the only two managing to eke out a gain of about half a percent let's roll down on some of the individual movers. not even long time tesla bull, ron, predicts tesla will stop its losing streak. shares are down 2% today and 5% since wednesday. it is a different story for crypto bitcoin back above $31,000, touching its highest level in more than a year the cryptocurrency is up this week and on pace for its best week since mid march, still a far cry from 60,000 highs. it has climbed more than 82% this year. that puts it on pace for its best first half since 2019 starting next saturday -- we're going to shift a little bit -- citizens from certain countries will no longer will able to buy real estate in the state of florida

robert, first thing i did was check if canadians are on that list a lot of snow boards who would be upset it is not them though. >> it is not the canadians nationwide, more than 25 states are working on laws that prevent the chinese from buying farmland governor desantis in florida has restricted sales of residential properties to people from seven countries. so, chinese nationals won't be able to buy any property in the state of florida under this law. you look at residents of china and venezuela, russia, and four other countries. they won't be able to buy property within ten miles of what they call critical infrastructure that's airports, sea ports, water treatment plants, electrical facilities, telecom systems. it excludes all of miami governor desantis says this is basically to protect florida from chinese influence but brokers are upset, saying this could cost billions of dollars in sales florida was the top state for overseas buyers, and there's

$6 billion worth sold just to the chinese. >> although the international investment, international travel hasn't rebounded to where it was pre-pandemic, it's moving in that direction so, anything that pushes back on, you know, telling people that florida's open for business and investment is concerning >> reporter: to enforce this law, sellers if violated could face time in prison or face fines. there is a lawsuit by a group of chinese citizens in florida seeking to block it. if there is no injunction, this will take effect, as you mentioned, starting next saturday back to you. >> robert, stick around if you can. we're going to bring in billionaire investor, also san francisco, new york, l.a., and more don, is this going to be a big move what robert just outlined is going to affect chinese buyers, russian buyers, as well as

venezuelan buyers. how much of the market do they make >> in south florida, it's a significant market it's attractive to foreign nationals, especially russian. miami beach has been attractive to foreign investors venezuela has been a big consumer of real estate in south florida, and the chinese influence has grown. and it's become a more attractive market to chinese buyers i sold a development site to a chinese developer a couple of years ago. >> how effective is this law going to be? we were chatting earlier before the show i'm from vancouver, where a tax was implemented to deter foreign buyers there's a lot of unintended consequences how do you think this will play out? >> i think it will hurt people trying to sell their homes i think it will slow development down potentially because it will shrink the buying poll and i think it's a negative impact on the economy. and i think it's another black eye to florida's image

this is america. we are fa free market system and if we start trying to navigate and pick, and governor desantis, who elected him and gave him the right to determine who gets to buy real estate in florida? >> isn't this political development for him as well. he's obviously speaking to the part of the population that does like this kind of move >> i think he's speaking to people outside of his own state. he's governor first. and i think if you're going to run for president, you've got to run based on a record that you've established, not gimmicks and i think this is going to backfire because there's going to be a lot of backlash on this. >> how does this change your calculation, if at all, in florida, especially south florida, where you said you were building buildings and the chinese were some of your biggest customers. how does that change or not change the outcome >> i think the market is very deep right now i think that it's cause for caution because things are slowing down for example, in new development for condominiums, for example, in miami beach and miami

the market has slown down a bit. you want to have a bigger buying pool it's going to pause a bit. i'm adamantly opposed to it. >> is there any pressure you can put on the economy, on desantis himself, as a developer by saying, look, we're not going to develop if this goes into effect >> i think other developers, just like me, are expressing concern about it and it will affect the economic viability of projects. and ultimately, some development won't get developed and won't get done the sad reality is he'll be a private citizen, most likely, when that happens because he's got three more years left as governor and then he's gone. and then we're going to be stuck with the ramifications of this ridiculous policy. >> do you think there's going to be unintended consequences on another group of buyers? i pointed to vancouver it didn't hurt the wealthy foreign buyers they were able to find loopholes or pay the tax it hurt smaller buyers because of the tax they can't afford what does it do to the other

groups, and will this have an effect on property prices? >> yes, i think it will have an effect on individual sellers, sellers who want to sell their homes, sell their condos, want to sell commercial property, and can't sell it. or it erodes the value real estate is a simple business supply and demand. you reduce demand, prices go down >> foreign buyers are looking, at least in the case of chinese, to park money outside of china what are the markets you think might benefit from this move in florida? do they go somewhere else? >> california. i think it's good news for california southern california is very good news san francisco, it's very good news both of those markets need some momentum so, i think these buyers will say, hey, if you don't want us here, fine, we'll leave. and i think new york benefits, especially from eastern european buyers >> you mentioned san francisco so, let's broaden this out a little bit and let's talk about commercial real estate more people are being called back to the office, of course.

so, castle data still showing activity is half of pre-pandemic levels low office occupancy rate is among many problems plaguing the sector that has become the focus of investors' worries. many worry a crisis is looming af a decade of cheap borrowing we see covers of magazines talking about this crisis in commercial real estate and the effect it could have on regional banks, on the entire economy where are you? is this overblown, or are you worried? >> i think it's a big impact commercial real estate has been hit by the one, two, and now the three punch. the first one was there was a migration down to lower tax states like florida and texas out of l.a. and new york prior to the pandemic. the pandemic forced everyone to work remotely and liberated people from having to be in offices. and that had a devastating impact and we're seeing that now, where almost every major employment center other than those in florida and texas are at 40%,

50% occupancies. and that's not going to change you add an increase in interest rates. now less income, more cost to service debt and fewer consumers of their product anymore. i think commercial office space in the major cities that were employment centers are going to have a big hit and are having them right now next year will be kind of judgment year. and the year after, even more. >> you painted a dire situation. does it end with some kind of crash or implosion issin is that going to take down the rest of the economy? >> every setback is an opportunity in disguise. so, i would hate to be an office building owner in those marketplaces however, the opportunity is to buy them and convert them. and i think this opportunity now is -- it presents these opportunities for conversions. >> you hear that a lot, conversion to residential for some of these office spaces. certainly we hear it a lot on the ground in san francisco. but a large amount of building stock is pre-1980.

so, you have less efficient buildings, vacant, commercial. is that really a good mix? is it -- how efficient, how realistic is it to convert some of the space to residential? >> not all office buildings are rife for conversions the more obsolete buildings are the b&c buildings are rife for it by and large because they're inefficient floor plates they're older buildings with interior courtyards so that the plays are configured more in a u shape. or they're 15,000, 10,000, 20,000 square feet those are very rife for it the bigger floor plates are just physically not rife for it because you have to add cores as opposed to one center core the other element is most of the major cities, l.a., san francisco, new york, d.c., have new environmental standards and new energy consumption standards. those are going to get relaxed, though, for conversions. so, new york city, new york state, washington, d.c., l.a.,

they're all looking or have passed legislation that will alleviate the responsibility to make those buildings more energy efficient, more efficient in terms of carbon footprints so, there will also be financial tax incentives to convert the buildings. >> is that where you're looking, the cities you listed? >> absolutely. i think five really strong cities for that. the one city we didn't talk about chicago. i think chicago because it has a significant amount of commercial office space with a regional employment center. it's got great opportunity and there have been conversions in all of these markets in the past, converting office to hotel, converting office to residential. the financial district in new york city is a very prime example of that after 9/11 >> san francisco has been such a flash point, between the crime, the urban planning, the make-up of the city itself how are you looking at it? you hear stories of $300 a square foot in a prime office

building how are you looking at that market you went in after the dot com crisis are you seeing any similarities? >> there are some similarities because of the lack of demand for office space when the dot com crash happened, then there was a lack of demand, and a lot of the tenants went bankrupt, so it created opportunities to buy office buildings to convert this time around, it was really generated first by a public safety crisis and a quality of life crisis. san francisco has been the poster child of quality of life and public safety challenges of urban centers. and on top of that, you add remote working that made the city almost vacant >> quite the mix >> so that combination has created a devastating impact but san francisco is the worst off of all the cities that i mentioned, all those top five cities and it'll be the first to come back and i think it is at a point where it is almost intolerable for anyone so, the most liberal, the most progressive people and voters

have lost tolerance. that's why you'll recall the district attorney. and you're going to see more activism because people are going to want quality of life. and i think new york and l.a. have a ways to go first. >> interesting >> and then it'll get worse and ultimately get better. >> the first to come back. that's a big statement >> yeah. >> okay. i like it. a last, broader trending question, a little techy as well i'm curious about the consumer do you think that more people are going to be willing to buy homes online in the future it hasn't really stuck we've been getting a little closer to it hasn't always lived up to the expectations how do you think consumer habits are going to change in the future >> i think consumers over the past decade, it's just accelerated where almost every consumer who is buying a house or a condominium or renting an apartment has looked at the property online first. now, what's happening is you're seeing more potential buyers negotiating deals to buy properties, especially new

construction condos or rental apartments and new buildings they are then making these contracts or these offers contingent upon the final inspection but you're going to see that accelerate to where it'll be more of a closing checklist item for someone to walk through a property >> so, do you think the open doors of the world, they come out of this okay and go on to thrive >> oh, yeah. i think that real estate technology is archaic. this is the most archaic industry because it's so fundamental. we've never had been forced to be more advanced but that's changing now. and i think that there's so much opportunity in the real estate tech space that i think we'll see a lot of growth and a lot of companies do very well >> a common theme there. you've got to hit bottom before you come back up >> that's right. >> don, thank you so much for being with us in person. coming up, cruise stocks, they are up big so far this year but does this rally have legs? one of our guests is especially bullish on one of those names. he tells us which one and why

and how much upside he sees. that's ahead we'll be right back. hen we metamorphosize into our new evolved form, we carry that spirit with us. because you can take alfa romeo out of italy. but you best believe, you can't take the italy out of an alfa romeo. only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means your priorities are ours too. our retirement tools and advice can help you leave a legacy for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror.

i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. welcome to the place... where people go to learn about their medicare options... before they're on medicare. come on in. you're turning 65 soon? yep. and you're retiring at 67? that's the plan! now's the time to plan ahead. learn about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. here's why... medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. a medicare supplement plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. and that could mean fewer surprise out-of-pocket costs for you. call unitedhealthcare... and ask for your free decision guide. or talk with a licensed insurance agent or producer about plan benefits, options, and rates. this type of plan lets you choose any doctor, any specialist, anywhere in the us

who accepts medicare patients. so call unitedhealthcare for your free decision guide... and get help protecting yourself from those out-of-pocket costs medicare doesn't pay. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. welcome back to "the exchange." i'mlessly picker with your cnbc news update. the boss of wagner said russia's reasoning for invading ukraine is based on a lie. p prigozhin made the comments today in a video the chief has been an outspoken critic of russia's top military brass. this is the first time he dismissed russia's justifications for the invasion. he also claimed russia is losing ground on the battlefield, as ukraine launches its counteroffensive u.s. attorney general

merrick garland announced the first ever criminal charges against chinese fentanyl manufacturers today. justice department officials say three companies are charged with illegally trafficking the chemicals used to make the highly addictive and deadly drug duke university is giving a hand up to new students from lower income homes university announced this week it will offer full tuition grants to undergraduate students from its home state north carolina and neighboring state south carolina families who earn less than $150,000 a year will be eligible current tuition at duke, $63,500 a year certainly gone up since i was in school >> those numbers continue to be mind boggling. >> it's not like that in canada. >> it's not. it certainly isn't a fraction of that >> fraction. >> thank you very much coming up on "the exchange." this cruise stock is up 40% over the last month that's right one month. one analyst stays full steam ahead for the name and the entire cruise sector, thanks in

part to inflation. we'll get to that name next. "the exchange" will be right back your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers flexible spending limits that adapt with his business. he used his card to furnish a new exam room, and everyone was happy. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business.

♪ welcome back to "the exchange." it has been smooth sailing for

cruise stocks this year, royal caribbean hitting a 52-week high today, while carnival and norwegian touched their highest levels in a year last week check out the year-to-date on carnival our mystery chart by the way norwegian is up more than 50%. my next guest says there's more than strength ahead, hiking his price target on carnival for the second time in a month to 18 bucks a share. we'll see if this bullish thesis plays out when the company reports earnings on monday morning. joining me now is leisure analyst at city citigroup. i'm fascinated by the idea that inflation is good for the cruise lines. play that out for us >> sure. thanks for having me, deidra we've done a lot of work to get this idea of affordability there aren't a lot of products in consumer world that aren't up dramatically in terms of what we ultimately have to pay for them.

cruise industries set out this multiyear, unprecedented run of inflation. so, the average cruise ticket, by our estimates, is only up maybe 5% versus 2019 you add on airfare costs and you're probably looking at about 7% growth, whereas the average cruise customer's discretionary income is up, call it low double digits in that time. it's one of the few sectors that we've seen become even more affordable and certainly if you compare that to other, you know, uses of those discretionary dollars, its even all the more attractive most notably, the cruise companies talk about this idea that prior to the pandemic, a cruise vacation was, call it a 20% to 30% discount to a comparable land-based vacation that number is more like 40% to 50% today. >> what does that say about the industry as a whole though do they not have very much

pricing power? is that what has led to the ugly balance sheets that you predict are going to be less ugly in the years to come? are they able to improve on that side, their pricing power, even as consumers see inflation impact their income in a positive way >> i think less ugly is right. i think this stems from the fact that they weren't an industry, right? the ships were in lay up mode for more than a year and even last year, as we sort of reopened this industry, it took a while there were a number of false starts it takes a lot to re-engage this whole marketing engine so, as you're trying to fill up these ships, thousands of rooms on a ship, there's a lot of pricing pressure associated with that i think all three of these companies, really over the next month or two, sometime in the summer, will be back to pre-pandemic occupancy levels. we can begin to see the cruise

industry participate in some of the pricing we've seen in cross-consumer >> that's a big question we don't know what the economy is going to do some folks are predicting a recession, debating how deep that's going to be we had an economist on at the start of the show who said this is the last gasp for consumers how recession proof is the cruise industry? >> well, historically not very and certainly these are highly levered companies, and you know, there's a whole lot of risk perception there but, you know, the point i make is that a recession, if that's all we're dealing with, all in quotes, is actually an improvement from where we've been in the cruise industry the last few years >> so, a lot >> obviously falls short of expectation. but, you know, it's the one sector that i can confidently say '23 is going to be better than '22 and '24 is going to be better than '23, recession or no >> which is remarkable tells you how much pressure the cruise industry has been under

these are huge gains this year you don't think that's all baked in now >> i think a lot of it's baked in we just raised our price target, and i can see more upside even to our numbers i think there's another 15% to 30% upside in carnival it's not all going to happen overnight. as excited as we were about the second quarter print, expectations have certainly run in the last month or so. you pointed out the 40% increase in the past month. so, expectations are high for monday i'm actually more excited about tuesday, when they're going to host an analyst day and not only walk us through sort of -- hopefully walk us through the longer term opportunity. but really the deleverage story. you talk about the balance sheet. there's an opportunity, as you put it, less ugly. >> less ugly i do know more people than i have in the past few years booking cruise as you say, james. thanks so much for being with us today. a majority of employers reporting family benefits are

important to prospective and current employees. while fertility benefits are expandg r stinfomo workers, gay men are being left behind. we will go inside their fight for fertility coverage that's next. i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, 48-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number america's ey private leader. lee, thanks so much for joining us we're talking about the fundraising landscape,

specifically for mid size companies. what's it looking like right now. >> deals are still getting done. but venture capitalists are more selective the in terms of how they deploy their capital, a lot more focus on profitability. when you skew that to profitability versus cost, you're naturally going to see fewer deals, more investor friendly, longer close times it's a lot more conservative approach now we're seeing. >> how should mid size companies adapt their approach to fundraising? >> one is the realization that it's tougher right now when you think about your product, is it really clear as to what is the value proposition? do you have a strong customer base, revenue momentum, cash flows? and can you show you can be capital efficient and at the same time be profitable? >> how can companies be more capital efficient? >> one is first of all i would implement stronger cash management practices, including maybe a good spending policy to make sure everyone around the business is really cash conscious. and as a leader, think cash. cash, cash cash burn rate and are you really focused and do you really have control and

visibility over cash flow as well as the forecasting? you want to avoid surprises. >> lee, thanks so much for sharing your expertise >> thank you, caroline, for having me. this is the all new, all electric lucid air. a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

♪ welcome back report from maven clinic shows nearly two-thirds of companies say they're planning to increase their fertility and family benefit investments over the next few years those benefits often leave one segment of the population out, and that is gay male couples -- joins me now with the details. >> this is a complicated and rather opaque issue. but 40% of u.s. employers offer some type of fertility benefits in 2022. that's up from 30% in 2020 but in policies exclude same-sex couples. >> we were shocked when we started to look into it and realized nothing is covered by insurance unless you can prove

that you're infertile. >> the first step for us was to get our sperm tested and for us, that was the only part of the process that was covered through our insurance. >> well, 63% of the lgbtq+ individuals who plan to become parents, only 10% of employers over a surrogacy benefit >> if diversity, equity, inclusion is really important to you, you have to look at all these paths to family building >> for those that offer surrogacy or adoption benefit, it's typically a $10,000 rebim ursment. >> the average cost has gone from $75,000 -- >> agency and legal fees, all expenses, compensation, insurance for the carrier, and donor eggs the new survey of lgbtq

employees shows 79% would consider leaving their current job for one that offers better fertility and family building benefits >> we hear from employees who are same sex that are asking for inclusive fertility benefits as part of their job package. >> many employers don't even realize there's a gap in coverage until an employee points it out. one of the individuals we spoke to said that's exactly what happened with his husband's company. pointed it out, and sure enough, they added the benefit >> did i hear that right it's up to $85,000 >> it's actually up to $250,000. the average goes anywhere from $150,000 to $250,000 >> one of the first things i asked you, it's going to be tech who's offering more of this. typically they start to think about these kinds of benefits earlier. you said another industry, which shocked me -- >> yeah. financial services actually does a decent job in this area to big banks like bank of america surrogacy benefit.

even some large hedge funds offer some kind of surrogacy benefit. again, it's typically going to be a reimbursement towards expenses, nowhere near the cost of coverage. $10,000 is fairly common at least it goes to show that they're thinking about the entire employee set and trying to include everyone on their path to parenthood >> so, your piece mentioned the idea that actually you can use these kinds of benefits to attract better alent, which is interesting. so, how do you think about how much it costs the company to offer this kind of thing >> yes, that's a really good point. and resolve, which is the national infer tilt association, did a study and looked at the states 21 statesman data that health care coverage for large employers cover some kind of fertility benefits and they looked at those states. and their premiums only increased less than 1% being required to offer fertility coverage not everybody needs it those that need it, not everybody uses it. and even if you offer a $10,000 surrogacy or adoption benefit that is so al small compared to what the total cost is

again, it goes to show that you're thinking about these employees, that you care and another individual we spoke to said, look, it's not the expectation that any company is going to cover the entire cost of this. but to show that you consider that i'm going to have a difficult road to get there and that i'm part of this too, means a lot. >> it can be a can mean a compe edge >> it can be. still ahead, we're two days into summer, but there's a major heat wave in texas on top of tornados with shares up 13% we'll talk to the ceo of generacbo aut demand and how it's keeping power online in the lone star state. that's next. id cloud solution to connect data across clouds, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time...

check. ...to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees - and buying 20 new laptops. so she used her american express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. somebody ordered some laptops? cynthia suarez. cfo. mvp. built for cynthia's business. built for your business. amex business. how can you sleep on such a firm setting? buigab, mine is almosts. the same as yours. almost is just another word for not as good as mine.

the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, 48-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number

♪ welcome back it's day 15 of the texas heat wave with more than 30 million people in the region facing record temperatures, 100 degrees plus major cities including san antonio, austin and el paso expected to hit 100 degrees. that heat has pushed power costs way up jumping from $2,500 to $5,000 per mega watt hour

residents have been asked to cut back on electricity and officials have asked generac. joining me now is the ceo of gen generac. aaron, what was the ask? >> we have a number of customers that allows the texas grid to cut off power to those homes and allow generac to power their home it's a small contribution, but a contribution nonetheless it speaks to the challenges that grid operators have today to meet supply and demand. >> you've seen this movie before, a similar scenario played out last year it doesn't feel sustainable to pull from residential generators are you working to get to a more

sustainable answer to these increasing environmental challenges >> we have a number of products. generators can be called into use when the grid is under stress we have battery products, smart thermostats that also -- we had over 25,000 thermostats called to use through ercot it's a bigger trend you're seeing as grid operators are balancing -- we're racing to electrify everything, cooking, cleaning, transportation we'll have evs in garages. on the supply side, we're trying to decarbonize supply by adding renewables solar and wind are great we need that we need to take coal and other fossil fuel sources off the grid when we do that, we create challenges for grid operators in

particular when you have great stress from -- whether it's a heat wave or the cold snap in texas as well in february of 2021 these things cause great stresses on grids. >> aaron, usually i sit in san francisco in california where a lot of folks need back-up power, whether it's a generator or solar power. what has demand been like? what are you anticipating when this heat wave occurs and more and more people beyond texas and california, do you think they'll have generators and a power storage? >> business has been robust for us over the last ten years in response to not only the -- i think the severity of the climate challenges we've been facing, but the macrochallenges around the transformation of our power grids across the nation. it's manifesting itself in more outages. outages are happening more frequently, lasting longer

home owners and business owners are forced to deal with that, especially as home owners we're working from home more our kids may be learning from home more. the ability to have a constant source of power is more than a discretionary thing. it's a necessity. >> i want to ask you a question question on the supply chain saw some business leaders walk out of the white house looking to put more of their supply chain in india you had a lot of that come from china. how are you looking at that? >> we have been, like all companies, are evaluating our supply chain a lot of our components come from all over the world. in terms of final assembly it's happened in the u.s. for a long time it's really upstream from that it's the electronic components that those folks at the white house were talking about, whether it's memory chips or

processors or other electronic components it's rebuilding those systems here in the u.s. it's going to be critical that we rebuild those industries. >> how much are you looking to india? >> india is a big partner for us we have some supply coming from india today and more in the future. >> aaron, thank you for being with us. that does it for "the exchange." stick around for "power lunch. c. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose.

transplant received. at&t business. there are some things that go better... together. hey! like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. for a brighter financial future. thanks. ahh, pretzel and mustard... another great combo. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair.

but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. call 1-800-miracle and schedule baby i hear one every night... every night. okay... i'll work on that. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, 48-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number ♪ welcome to "power lunch. i'm john fortt with morgan brennan. another company caught in the middle of a controversial social issue. this time starbucks worker