addicts. the temptation's gonna be there. he's gonna have to look at it, and he's gonna wonder about it. but i want to see him come out of prison and take the straight and narrow road. now, that's gonna be completely up to him. ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines >>russian mercernaries pull back from the city and secretary of state blinken says this results in cracks of putin's power. and investors engage the aftermath of the russia's first

insurrection in two decades. and the summer davos will welcome foreign investment pto fuel foreign growth. >> this is becoming a lost decade with low growth moving forward. 2.8% global growth is not what we need. a landslide victory for the greece party to govern alone good morning let's go over some of the stunning developments from the

weekend. mer mercenary soldiers have withdrawn from the city after a short mutiny one of the biggest issues over putin's power. wagner vfighters are believed to return to the base the commander will move to belarus, but his current whereabouts are unknown. this weekend's revolt started friday night when wagner's prigozhin carried out a missile attack on his soldiers in response, the fsb said prigozhin was starting an armed

rebel rebe rebellion. he was speaking to the deputy defense minister and had taken control of the area. >> and vladimir putin made a national address he accused prigozhin of betraying the country and vowed to crush the mutiny. by saturday evening with the wagner soldiers approaching moscow, prigozhin ordered troops to stand down. a deal had been approved and the leader pulled back to avoid bloodshed. with the wagner uprising quelled, questions remained over the events and the future for prigozhin and putin and the invasion of ukraine. the president has refused to say what the role will be out of belarus as people wait to see how putin will tighten grip on

power. meanwhile, ukrainian forces were pushing ahead with the counteroffensive making gains in the south. to help us with this situation and what it means moving forward, tony britton joins us thank you for being with us to help us understand what has happened this caught many by surprise i love to get your take on why the kremlin backed down and essentially decided not to prosecute prigozhin and let him go off to belarus. >> i'm not sure the kremlin backed down. prigozhin launched his attempted coup is a bit over the top, but launched an angry demonstration over the target which is the russian defense minister he sent his troops off in the

direction of moscow. about 4,000 troops were going to be decimated if there were going to be fighting he hoped there would be support from the russian litany which did not transpire. in the course of sunday, there were intense conversations goin on and the final deal, none of which we know yet, that putin's attack would stop and he would go off into exile in belarus and putin in exchange is not following through on the strong charges he launched of mutiny. the interesting thing is what happens with prigozhin we don't know. the relevant competent is what happens to wagner and if they are incorporated in the russian armed forces as putin is in command and if this constitutes

a threat to putin's stability in power. >> let me pick up there and ask what you think it does to putin's image. is this a damaging episode domestically to date, he has had tremendous support from the russian people from what we understand. >> a lot of western comments have said this is it this is the end for putin. for the extent, he is damaged. he cosees a major act of defiane this is a country at war this is a country whose elite working for putin for decades and know if putin falls, they fall and whose people are firmly supportive of putin and of the war. so, what we are now seeing is a gathering of the minds, if you like, russians support the putin. the russian press is saying it is back to business as usual

we need to get on with the war that is their aim. it is likely to work one or two sidewinds are possible prigozhin may make more trouble. there are presidential elections next year for which this will play for the immediate future, it will calm down and they will get on with the war. the real future for putin doesn't lie in the prigozhin theater, but how they do in the war. if the ukrainians make the breakthrough which they are hoping for counteroffensive, then all bets are off. if russia is on the edge of catastrophic losing, then it is an issue for putin if the war is bogging down and the ukrainian advance remains blocked and it is an extended

deadlock, then putin is there and pressure on both sides to get into some sort of talks. >> a lot to unpack there i want to go back to what julianna asked about this is to do with prigozhin's motivation evidently, there was a rift with him and the ministry of defense. does the minister of defense come out in a stronger position or will president putin have to make the decision of diminishing the powers in light of what has gone on? >> one important fact about putin is he doesn't give in under pressure prigozhin's pressure is to say is not guaranteed to happen is the dismissal. it may happen. he has been useless as defense

minister one reason he survived is prigozhin has been noisy about him going. that has been reinforced in the last couple days with these events. >> many are surprised that putin allowed himself to get into the position the fighting had been delegated to the mercenary group that is where the heart of the issue came from. i wonder with the departure of prigozhin and the forces and some deciding to stay on in russia to continue the fight and what it means for the fight against ukraine and if it limits russia's ability to go on the offense at this point? >> that's a good question. that's right the most effective of the russian military fighting in ukraine is wagner. that is good for the prigozhin attack on the ministry of defense and the popularity of russia that was striking yesterday when

he and his troops left from the south. they were applauded by the local people local people are in favor of a vigorous prosecution of the war. the fact that prigozhin is out of it and wagner is also out of it will weaken the russian performance on the battle field. >> there is concern if we see more instability in russia and there is more of a risk that we could see nuclear warfare enter the mix. how do you think this episode effects the likelihood we see nuclear powers deployed? >> oh, don't worry i think the likely of that still remains very low as i said, i don't see the level of political instability in russia as anything at the level of real civil war and then you start worrying about nuclear weapons falling in the wrong hands. that is close to zero at the moment depends what happens in the war with the other issue -- war the other issue is if putin is

tempted to use nuclear weapons if the war goes wrong for russia it is not going existentially wrong yet. there is a danger of that and let's hope we don't end up in that situation >> sir, thank you so much for sharing your views with us sir tony brenton former uk ambassador to russia you can follow us on twitter we are @streetsignscnbc. meanwhile, what does the rebellion in russia mean going forward? we will speak to hermigeta capital's bill browder coming up next stay with us

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i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. welcome back to "street signs. at the top of the hour, we got

disappointing numbers from germany. the numbers have been lower than expected the index has come in at 83.6 against the forecast of 88 when german businesses think about the future, they are lower than what many people anticipated those numbers to look like. the number of 93.7 against 93.5. the business climate index which is most worrying is 88.5 against the consensus forecast of 90.7 julianna, expectations are pessimistic, but also companies assessment is very negative. >> the comments are downbeat from the german economist. he says storm clouds are forming for the german economy weak demand and order backlog falling and industry exports are

down rate hikes are dampening demand. obviously a positive for the fl inflation picture, but damning with demand. the likelihood the german economy will shrink in q2 has increased. this is a downbeat reading from the latest ifo survey. >> you have to combine that with the weaker pmi the flash pmi is disappointing for germany and france and eurozone not just manufacturing which has been weak the last couple months, but services which started to turn as well. that has set the tone for european markets before we headed for the weekend it was a negative week for the stoxx 600 index ending 2% lower for the week you see a lot of red behind me not much green on the mheat map

stoxx 600 is down .20% the markets are focused on the geopolitical development from russia over the weekend. implications that will have on president putin himself as well as the knock-on effect on the war. we are keeping a close eye on that it hasn't had an impact on oil since then, markets have turned south. let's switch to the indices. we talked about the ifo data the dax has pulled back more down .30%. we attempted to open up in positive territory, but not so much the case. down 55 points cac 40 is down .40%. some cyclical names under performing ftse mib is down 1.1% today. 300 points lower we are seeing a pull back in the banks there. ftse 100 over here in the uk is down .40%. 30 points weaker again, it seems to be the

cyclical names and basic resources leading the declines today in addition to the banks and we are keeping a close eye on home builders with the impact of higher interest rates for the housing sector in the uk this is where leadership is coming from today. we have chemicals up .20%. retail is slightly in the green up .30%. banks are suffering today. 1.2% weak. deutsche bank is a name we are following down 2.5%. industrials down as well .70%. let's talk about the market impact on russia the oil market is in focus amid fears that the events in russia which is the world's largest producer could impact supply the moves follow declines last week weighed down by further interest rate hikes by the fed and weaker recovery in china bit of a mixed bag

you can see most of the oil majors which are the actual shares of the companies are trading in the red weaker to the tune of .50% to almost 1% weaker on the day. deutsche bank is one of the banks we're looking at it is no longer able to guarantee access to russian stocks owned by the investors. the bank notified investors in the month that it identified a shortfall in shares back in the dep deposit receipts it issued before russia invaded ukraine. disappointing news for anyone holding stock. down 1.9%. world leaders are assessing the implications of the revolt that lasted 24 hours speaking to nbc news, u.s. secretary of state blinken says this exposes cracks in putin's

power. >> 16 months ago, russian forces were on the door step of ukraine believing they would take the capital in days. and now what we have seen is russia having to defend moscow against mercenaries of its own making >> the rebellion in russia exposes weakness in putin's system >> the conclusion is the war against ukraine launched by putin and the monster that putin created, the monster is biting him now. the monster is acting against him, the creator, and the political system showing fragility and military power is cracking this is an important concept >> ukrainian president volodymyr

zelenskyy held talks as the drama unfolded, including with president biden. >> translator: the longer russian aggression lasts, the more degradation it causes in russia itself. one manifestation is the russian aggression is returning to its home harbor. >> you have to imagine much like the rest of the world, even the ukrainians were watching the developments with surprise to what you were saying earlier, the event was surprising, but how quickly it deescalated was a surprise as well >> yes >> very happy to bring in our next guest a man who knows a lot about the russian regime bill rowder. thank you for joining us let me start off by asking the question that everyone has been asking how much of an existential threat to putin was this attempted mutiny over weekend?

many people are saying that president putin is humiliated. there is a lot of daylight with a humiliated putin and defeated putin. >> that is correct i would argue this is the single worst thing that has happened to him in the 23 years he took power. his whole spin and m.o. is to appear to be the toughest and most effective dictator out there. by having that perception, people fall into line and don't challenge him and he is able to hold on to power it is like incobeing in the pri yard he has to be the toughest with the shank. what happened this weekend, a new guy has shown up who is more vicious and everybody was falling into line with his -- as he rode his convoy in and the reason why this is bad for putin is if his image of being a

strong man is shattered, then other people will have a go at him. there is a lot of money and power involved in russia and now that door is wide open it will only close if putin reasserts his authority and becomes more brutal. i would say there is a purge coming of monumental proportion for putin to show his teeth to the russian people. >> i want to pick up on that point. the only russian opposition leader who was capable of organizing anti-putin protests is mr. navalny who is in jail. there are no actual signs that the top brass that surround putin are beginning to breakaway from him where do you think the next catalyst is going to come from they exiled prigozhin to

belarus. >> i don't think anyone would have predicted a month ago that some blood thirsty military mercenary would march in and take over stuff. there is such an incentive from so pain pmany people to have a of the pie and have the money that comes with the power. it will not come from the well respected democrats like alexi navalny. it will come from some other warlord or want-to-warlord there is a lot floating out there. putin has no idea where it will come from. he has to be paranoid beyond belief we have seen this before we saw in turkey with the attempt attempted coup in turkey with erdogan. he arrested everybody in sight

who he thought was disloyal. i'm sure that will happen next. >> bill, i saw you tweeted i predict putin will have an alm almighty purge how do you see this purge leading to his downfall? >> if he is successful if the purge, his downfall won't happen he has to show everybody you can't mess with putin. he is the most ruthless person around he will try to make everybody think that then the question is does it work i don't believe it will work i think russia is too big a country and too much stuff going on out there it doesn't mean he won't try if he goes on a half hearted purge or doesn't succeed in making everybody scared, then something will happen.

there is an incident where his power finally falls and the momentum builds up imagine you are looking at this as one of his enemies and he has many in russia you are saying prigozhin did not succeed because he did this wrong. he we will not do this wrong and have another good. there are people thinking that right now. >> in terms of the biggest risk that the international community is concerned about, i think nuclear warfare is the biggest risk out there under what scenario could you see russia turning nuclear would that be under putin or instability takes hold and putin loses control? >> it is a terrifying thought that russia descends into civil war and they have the largest nuclear arsenal out there. they threatened nuclear war against ukraine. there is this thought out there

among western policymakers that it is better to have putin than unknown replacement. that may be true, but it may not be true. i think for us to be somehow saying putin is the reasonable one, but he is wrong because he has already threatened nuclear war. it is not our place to determine who is running russia. the only thing we can do is build up a fortress outside of russia this is going back to the cold war to ensure a true iron shield they cannot threaten with all the things without devastating consequences that is what we have to build up in the west. a real backbone to the stuff which we have not had before so we are protected from whatever comes in the politics in the country. >> what about prigozhin? he is now in belarus

is that it is that the end of the chapter with putin or will he stir up trouble again if esshe senses an opportunity? >> normally if you betray putin and take them to red scare and chop his head off on public television to make a point they did not do that with prigozhin. the answer is prigozhin is too important in addition to the work he was doing with the wagner fighting in ukraine, he is running russia's foreign policy in africa there are 17 countries which wagner mercenaries in africa to take out one of the most important policies, they discovered it was too difficult. putin is in a humiliated situation with a guy too big to

kill and trying to figure out what to do at the end of the day, putin's emotions may get the better of him and they may finally kill prigozhin. this suggests that prigozhin is an important man to russia >> lastly, bill, are there any winners from this episode? it feels like everybody has ended up in a more precarious position than when we started. >> i think -- ukraine is a huge winner wagner is the only truly capable fighting force in the ukraine military had the respect for and they're gone secondly, the ease through which these mercenaries made their way to moscow and shoot down airplanes shows russia needs to recalibrate the allocation of military resources to protect the rest of the country which

means they have to withdrawal is some soldiers from ukraine third thing is that the more ukraine succeeds and push and more damage they cause russia, the more in-fighting they create in russia. ukraine is a huge winner in this thing. i think we are going to start to see the dividends in short order as the counteroffensive finishes. >> we will leave the conversation there thank you for joining us and sharing your views bill browder. coming up, summer davos is back for the first time since the pandemic we will hear from the world economic forum president when we come back. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines pulling back from the brink of mutiny on moscow and withdrawing from the southern city u.s. secretary of state blinken

says this uprising exposes cracks in putin's power. european equity markets pull back and investors gauge the aftermath of the russia's first attempted insurrection in decades. german declines in june with the ifo coming in short of expectations and economists warn of recession in the second quarter. the summer davos returns to china for the first time since the pandemic the foreign president says he hopes beijing welcomes more foreign direct investment to fuel global growth >> you have to widen because this is becoming a lost decade with low growth moving forward because 2.8% global growth is not what we need european equities are

trading lower on this monday morning. fairly evenly spread losses. a little bit of under performance in the ftse mib down 1% otherwise, markets down .50% apiece this follows the risk off trade last week. the risk off trade was pronounced in europe stoxx 600 pulled back 300 points last week. investors digesting the events in russia over the weekend and what it means for the war in ukraine and all assets related to it we are not seeing a huge amount of movement in the euro/dollar the meeting taking place this we're and we hear from the central bank chiefs from around the world. sterling is trading against the dollar back up at $127.39 the dollar has weakened against the yen.

we're at 143 this morning. we are seeing action in bond markets. fixed income rally on both sides of the atlantic on friday. this morning, we are seeing a yield pull back further across europe every major region is seeing yields more lower. 10-year bund at 2.3% btp is 3.49% wall street has a weaker start similar to here in europe. this follows a downbeat trade all week with all three majors ending lower snapping a multi-week winning streak for the nasdaq and dow and s&p. the summer davos returns to china this week. this is a different world with the political tension and turmoil center stage sam is actually live from tianjin. great to have you with us on the

show i expect the focus on the conference is about china's faltering recovery in addition to the geopolitical tension. >> reporter: good morning, ladies it is lovely to be back in china and the world economic forum first time back since 2019 back at tianjin since 2018 the conversation back then was different. of course, a lot of discussion around china's economic resilience in the face of the trade war with the u.s. and innovation fast forward after three years of zero covid, we have, of course, consumer sentiment feeling it right now a lot of concerns as whether this will mitigate the softening exports which is a major concern for china as well. many are waiting and watching to see what china will do with the signals of economic growth the other discussion that is very much dominating headlines

here today, of course, this kickingofficially. we have talked to a number of people today the developments in russia, no doubt, will play a big role in the context of some of the discussions that will be had here in the face of, you know, governments and economies dealing with deep structural economic and geopolitical tensions and trying to tackle climate change and technology. i did get a chance to speak to the president of the world economic forum just a while ago. take a listen to what he had to say about russia he did seem to think that really the big question now is whether it will change the calculus. >> the elephant in the room is will this change president putin's approach to the ukraine war. will he end the war based on this now and see this is an overstretch or will this

continue the war is having a big negative impact mainly on the people of ukraine, but also on the energy prices globally and on food ukraine is a big exporter of grain. in the very complicated geopolitical landscape, if we could find a solution to the ukraine war, we could end that and that would be a good signal not only for the people in ukraine, but the war has huge negative impact on the global stage which is paying a high price and consumers in europe with high energy prices with ele electricity prices still >> reporter: that will be part of the conversations this week very important ones indeed bringing it back to china, of course, the big role that china has to play in the global economy in growth moving forward is the focus also the state of doing business here in china and given some of

the uncertainty around the regulatory environment here. i did put that to him as well in terms of what he hopes to get out of the discussions this week >> it is true that china grew very fast after the covid restrictions were lifted it is still growing substantially. but the government also now are taking measures by lowering interest rates and looking at other measures to revive growth further. if you look at the global picture where we expect 2.8% growth this year, china is growing more than that china is probably responsible still for 35% of the global growth it will be very interesting listening to the new premier's speech tomorrow. are there measures to strengthen growth and what is the message to the international business

community? 1,500 ceos and investors here. i'm expecting there will be signals that foreign direct investment is welcome and there might be additional measures from the new government to that effect. >> what signals will be helpful at this point? there is a lot of uncertainty around foreign businesses doing business here in china, of course, given the regulatory environment with the mixed signals and some of china's laws which unnerved investors what do you think will be key in the discussions tomorrow what should we watch for here? >> he will send a strong message that foreign direct investment is welcome in china. i think we seem some positive developments with the so-called

g2 u.s. and china it is almost 50% of the global economy. all of the confrontation and competition with the two important nations, trade between china and u.s. grew last year at 1.2% i think people will be surprised by hearing these numbers what we have to avoid is this is becoming a lost decade with low growth moving forward. 2.8% global growth is not what we need to eradicate poverty and build prosperous societies we need stronger growth and that has to be built on a win-win thinking not like bigger than the neighbor, but prosper the neighbor hopefully there will will be signals from the business community that there is trust and investments in china and there are opportunities here

>> reporter: as you heard, all eyes on premier's opening remarks tomorrow for signals as to what the message will be for foreign invest orinvestors as tk to introduce capital into the country to propel global growth and china is facing its economic challenges with the chinese consumer and as it does try to mitigate the softer overseas demand now the visit now just to germany and france where he has been trying to garner support in the face of the u.s. pressure and also trying to strengthen the corporate relationships, too. as i say, he is a very business minded guy he has successfully brought tesla here we will see what he has to say

of thsay. there will be discussions with a.i. and evs wednesday, there will be a panel on the global debt explosion which will be interesting in terms of financial stability and debt sustainability moving forward. ladies, back to you. >> sam, fascinating stuff on the agenda we look forward to the coverage the next couple days this meeting comes as the global economy is at a critical juncture governments should further tighten fiscal policy according to the bank of international settlements. the swiss bank group says more hikes will be needed to tame price pressure the soft landing is still possible now a busy week for central bank leaders for tuesday christine lagarde and jay powell and andrew bailey and governor

ueda set to take the stage on wednesday, the stress test results ahead of the u.s. gdp numbers on thursday and a flurry of data to finish the week with flash eurozone and pci index from the u.s that is containing the fed preferred gauge of inflation we will be live on tuesday sitting down with the chairman of the board of the bank of lithuania and the latvian governor. >> big week coming up. >> we say that all the time. >> central bank dream this week. friday, for me, was such a pivotal day. it is when we got the flash pmi numbers. i was teasing on the break because you were looking at fixed income and i said i won you over to the dark side with the equity background you have here

that was significant we are really now getting to the point where i think investors are understanding that in order for central banks to be successful at beating inflation, they have to keep rates higher for longer or possibly keep hiking in the face of the inflation pressure which is what we got from the bank of england. the fed are hinting at it. the flip side is the economy is starting to break and break in a real-time situation. we have seen the resilience of the service sector that is no longer the case manufacturing is subdued services have started to turn as well i wonder how long this dynamic of bond markets telling you something and equity markets telling you something else how long will that continue? >> there is a disconnect with the equity markets and bond markets the last several months with the inversion of the

treasury yield curve signaling recession for months u.s. equity markets are continuing higher with the tech trade and structure factors driving the exuberance of a.i. stocks on friday, the flash pmis were startling. the french pmi it slipped into contraction territory with services. 48 that is below the 50 mark with contraction and expansion. today, the german ifo survey showing the german economy is in a worse position than expected above all, weakness in manufacturing steering germany into turbulent waters. the key question for the forum is going to be can the rate hikes continue beyond the summer when we are seeing all of the cracks in the economic data? >> it feels the tradeoffs we discussed six or nine months ago about growth and inflation are

finally beginning to come into fruition the situation in the uk is a perfect example. you still have headline ppi. you have wage growth at 7% unemployment rate is still at the 3% handle. in order for all of those domestic pressure to moderate, unfortunately, that means the wage market is going to have to soften that does mean that unemployment rate will have to rise again so this is, i think, what the narrative in the second half of the year will look like. it is not about how much central banks will hike, but how much economies suffer >> we know investors were bearish waiting for this to material materialize. it hasn't yet. will they put the bearish trade back on? >> a lot this week with the central conference and the european inflation numbers

let's bring you political developments from europe greece's new democracy party won the parliament election this weekend. beating the leftist party. the incumbent prime minister mitsotakis remains in office giving him majority to form a cabinet. >> translator: with today's election results, greece opens a new chapter in the course. for the second time in a few weeks, the citizens have not just sent a message for continuity for the path we set out four years ago, but gave us a strong mandate to move faster on the road for the needs our country has. coming up on the program, u.s. officials are monitoring the fallout from the rebell ion in russia and we get the latest read out of washington next.

welcome back to the program.

soldiers from the wagner group have withdrawn from the southern city of restov following the short attempted mutiny brie jackson from nbc news joins us now brie, talk us through what washington's response has been to the developments over the weekend. >> reporter: julianna, the biden administration has been keeping a close eye on the situation in russia it continues to keep in close coordination with allies with france and germany and japan for more than a day, mercenaries threaten to overthrow putin's government prigozhin, once a putin ally and leader of the private wagner group fighting in ukraine.

nbc news sources say congressional leaders were briefed last week. this revealed deep weaknesses in the kremlin and putin's grip on power. world leaders are sorting through the fallout of the rein revolt and impact on ukraine so far, president biden has not commented publicly with the white house official telling nbc news that a statement might lead vladimir putin to accuse the u.s. of orchestrating the uprising putin called the rebels march to moscow a stab in the back. as part of the deal to end the rebe rebellion, prigozhin will move to belarus and the criminal case against him will be dropped. julianna >> brie, thank you for bringing us up to speed joumanna, it is interesting to get the u.s. response and lack of response really from president biden.

compared to china downplaying the importance of the uprising and passing it off as an internal affair. >> for the west, it was important to be seen, not to be seen as egging the uprising on that is why there was tactical silence over the weekend if they did say anything, it would reinforce the commitment to nato. not commenting on what is happening. we started off talking about this it is remarkable how quickly the situation quote/unquote dees can rated. if you -- deescalated. if you saw the initial spike in oil, that wasn't very long lived. i think markets are saying we can put this in the rear-view mirror for now anything can happen. we have spoken to a lot of analysts >> and bill browder saying if there is a winner, it could be ukraine. that may be where western forces

come in in terms of the indirect roll in response if they assist ukraine more in the war efforts in the wake of the developments. let's get a check of the markets. european markets are trades lower after the initial tick on trade. wall street is looking down. all three majors are looking to extend the losses. s&p and dow and nasdaq snap multi-week winning streaks that is it for the show. i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. investors looking ahead to the final week of the first half of the year and looking to extend last week's losses. this after a wild 36 hours in russia and the greatest threat to vladimir putin. and peehere as home, alliese sorting through the ripple effects for the ukraine and russia conflict. and president biden set to kickoff a new push for