flight control repair in the d.c. area. and bitcoin up 83% year to date we will show you what is moving now on monday, june 26th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures and stock market is interesting. we need someone that if we can get someone at behrens >> 15. >> mike, good to you have here i'm joe kernen with mike santoli. becky is off andrew is around he will join us later.

he is in a place where celebrities love to look at the mountains. have you been? i went to school in colorado i have not been to aspen andrew will join us from the aspen ideas festival later u.s. equities are off their lows you heard frank say it i said to mike, it was a crummy week maybe not surprising with the s&p. did anyone think it was going to be up 13%? >> total return is 15% with dividend people will pull it apart. the equal weighted s&p is up a little more. you signed up for an 8% year for the average stock. last week's pull back is textbook we were overheated going into it it wasn't really driven by a lot in terms of bond market pricing

and new macro stuff. it seemed mechanical >> and we mentioned bitcoin in the headlines. we don't necessarily do that it used to be related. last time, it started going up from 17 or whatever. the market was not really participating. the market caught up bitcoin pulled back on what looked like specific instances there. more problems with exchanges then all of a sudden, blackrock and charles schwab is interested and citadel. it has nothing to do with risk on or risk off. >> it seems the institutionalization of bitcoin. that is the scrutiny on the exchanges and coins. bitcoin is standing apart. it's the thing that the s.e.c. is not going after >> weird, we had one guest on

who didn't like bitcoin because it is not good for money laundering that is the real sset. the only thing it was used for was criminal activity. >> right. >> now it is a bad thing that it is traceable >> $100 bills and gold served that purpose forever >> we have done fine with money laundering before bitcoin. >> the way i looked at it, there is no correct or incorrect price for it the criticism is no reason for it to exist as an asset is gold. you can say -- >> if you take the six things that make gold valuable, you can ascribe it to bitcoin. >> yeah. >> if you are un-banked, you are in russia. if you are anywhere with an

iphone, you can have something solid. >> people are willing to put big numbers on ideas stocks in the nasdaq that fit that bill. that is what we have here. >> bitcoin is volatility how is netflix how is disney? the most blue chip stock that can go down 30% or 40% despite the declines on the averages on friday, dow and s&p and nasdaq are down for june treasuries here. the inversion. it is not as big as it was s still inn vverted with the 2/10 year 4.71 on the 10-year. the fed is going to 5.5. it makes no sense at 3.69.

somebody thinks they are smarter than the fed >> or they are not saying they are long the next couple years, they will peak out at 5.5 or more and going down from there. it suggests that what they're doing suggests inflation will work. >> right you want to invest money risk free for ten years here is what you get 3 3.7. that's it. 5% for a month if you really want to go long-term, we will not give it to you it is not there. it is not doable to get more than 3.7%. we will talk about that later with oil that is more of a supply and demand issue more supply is what we heard >> that's right. nearly 1,400 flights canceled yesterday and 9,000

delayed as thunderstorms snarled air travel at the busiest airports according to flightaware. adding to the chaos, the faa halted departures to major airports serving washington, d.c. due to repairs with a power panel at the air traffic control facility the back-up systems handled flights safely. separately, pete buttigieg is warning ahead of the deadline for airlines to retrofit equipment to avoid problems with 5g 5g companies are boosting to higher power levels and when that happens, aircraft without the upgraded equipment won't be cleared to land in certain weather conditions when visibility is low. at&t and verizon agreed to delay the launch of 5g near airports while iairlines worked to

ret retrofit more than 50% of dpomestic flights have upgraded. we will talk to daniel elwell in the up ccoming hour about the saturday deadline. i came in yesterday. lightning. is it dangerous? doesn't hit planes are we sure? if you see it out there and it is close, are you sure it is okay >> it is best not to think about it when i was growing up, the rubber tires ground you. you don't have to worry about it just tell yourself that. >> and the other thing is when w you don't see the runway until ten feet above it. those guys are good. the instruments are good >> good enough that i choose not to think about it. following a weekend of

rebellion in russia, uncertainty and confuse over putin's authority are now front and center mic michael o'hanlon is joining us from the brookings institute michael, if it is russia, it is a pooch -- michael, help us with that the quote i saw is this pooch is over, but the fundamentals or the cause is for the pooch are still in place it is something to think about is that correct? >> well, yes, fair enough. with prigozhin presumably marginalized, i don't see who else is in the position to make this effort in the future. putin may have revealed inner weakness, but he came out on top. his number one nemesis, the last few weeks, his former best

friend, appears to be out of the picture. in that regard, it is a slight weakening of putin, but not as dramatic as some people are claiming we have to see how it plays out. >> if he was really in trouble or in danger of being ousted, the kind of russia we would be looking at at that point is what we want? on face value , this guy has bee bad for a while. his successor or that situation be more dangerous for the u.s. and west >> it could be in the short-to-medium-term for sure. who is in charge of the nuclear weapons? some nightmare is the revolt or ongoing uncertainty of center of power could lead to questions of who is in charge of the nuclear weapons. if you have a clean takeover by somebody else, the narrative is this is a war of survival

against the west and evil encroaching nato, that narrative is alive and well in the russian elite and russian population you have to assume a distinct possibility. until putin did this a year and a half ago, for all of his weaknesses and flaws and anger at west, this was a semi calm figure at the top. i'm not so sure about that in in that regard, i'm not sureo get somebody as rational you make sure russia gets something out of the war if they wind up negotiating. the best guess is putin owns this most of all therefore, he is the most pig-headed and maximizing gains. maybe a different leader would

negotiate an ending to the war in the next couple months. they will not be our friend in the long run. >> eventually another winter is coming how bad is it for russian troops is that part of what drove this? do you think it is a real concern for how the war is going? >> yes at least in prigozhin's head it was many of his forces that were involved in the deadly siege of bakhmut in the winter and spring they used the cannon fodder of recruits to expose and run across open terrain and grab a kilometer here and there evocative of world war i >> we lost michael we will see if we can establish that connection again.

that is weird. lukushenko is in power have you figured out no russian names left for this militia group? wagner >> it is wagner, not wagner. >> at least give it a wagner sound. i don't think we are getting him back world war i. you saw that we have seen a rendition of what that was like. 1917 is there any war civil war reenactments all horrible it's 2023. 2023 stop >> yup all right. coming up, major indices still positive for june despite last week's declines of more than 1% ac across the board

we will talk strategy next. and in the 8:00 hour, former google executive will join andrew you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "squawk box. all averages finishing lower last week snapping multi-week winning streaks. joining us now is kara murphy.

kara, good morning >> good morning. >> we have been talking about the surprising, perhaps, pe performance by the market, year to date. we are pushing out the onset of the recession. the fed has more to do, but it is doing it slowly and incrementally at this point. earnings forecast are flattening out and not collapsing any more. what does that setup say to you as we head into the second half? >> it is interesting so far this year, as you suggested, the economy has been treading water treading water for longer than suggested at the beginning part of the year. the challenge is that the market has been acting like the rescue boat is on the horizon we cannot see the rescue boat yet. we had incredible rally in the index and driven by technology a lot of excitement over a.i. and as you mentioned, earnings have been okay the challenge is p.e. is looking stretched. 21 times forward earnings.

we haven't yet seen liftoff in the economy. there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty left we have the indicators suggest that recession is on the horizon. i think at this point, the market is looking precarious. >> i think the s&p, if you are looking at the consensus 12 months forward, it is 19 times if i'm not mistaken. on the upper end of the range over the last several years. the question is if the complaint is the market is too narrow and skewed to the few stocks driving up the index, is that value imbalanced in that way it seems cyclical stocks are not oblivious to the economic slowdown >> it is true. we have a wide divergence in earnings expectations. when we look at next 12 months, we feel the back end of the 12 months, earnings expectations

are optimistic in the fourth quarter, the 8% rise year over year. calendar 2024, increased 10% it is hard to imagine recessionary environment in the time it is rising so much. you need to square those two with the high valuation. >> maybe worth a moment to talk about the dramatic events over the weekend in russia. i was being contacted by people who seemed to think it would have a market impact i'm not sure how at this point how would these events get transmitted into the markets why are we having a quiet opening today even in europe >> it is remarkable. u.s. markets in particular have the amazing ability to look through geopolitical risk.

when you go back a year and a half ago russia invading ukraine, we had geopolitical risk priced in the market for a time the focus shifted to commodity markets and that turned into run away inflation on the ground does power struggle in russia threaten energy supplies and wheat supplies quite honestly, 18 months after the first invasion, we're in a better place than where we were in protecting the commodities and supplies we found sources elsewhere this remains a risk. that drives the transmission or potential transmission mechanism with russia and u.s. markets. >> and just to sum up, if you don't think the risk/reward is good in equities, what does it mean at this point in time how

you move around a portfolio? >> we still outside of equities see opportunities in fixed income if you think of the fed rate tightening cycle and there are a couple of rate rises left in the fed, the bulk is all behind us we think there are a lot of opportunities and we are looking to move the curve in the middle part of duration not looking to get super aggressive with credit, but corporate credit and munis look attractive on the equity side, you shouldn't head for the hills, but pull in your horns a little bit. we see opportunities outside of the u.s. particularly in europe with valuations are more attractive and earnings expectations are reasonable there are opportunities out there. >> kara, thank you for the time. kara murphy. coming up, strikes by starbucks workers disrupted open ra -- operations over the weekend.

we'll talk about that later. we talk about the bitcoin moving higher with tom lee "squawk box" will be right back.

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♪ strike by starbucks workers disrupted operations at dozens of cafes this weekend. the pledge to keep striking. union representing the workers is accusing the company to limit the ability for workers to hang pride decorations in stores. some baristas did not have time to decorate and it was a safety concern against backlash with pride dus isplays or the

decorations did not align for guidelines for stores. they suggested advocates for the un union were wrongly considering the situation. as of yesterday, 104 locations had staff participating in the strikes in chicago and baltimore and seattle and philadelphia and pittsburgh law enforcement officials are investigating a recent wave of bomb threats in the u.s. targeting groceries and other retail stores. stores operated by kroger and walmart and whole foods with callers demanding bitcoin or gift cards the fbi is working with state and local law enforcement. coming up, investment ideas

from tom lee still bullish on bitcoin check out shares of tesla as we head to break. goldman sachs is downgratdowngr from neutral to buy. the price of $250 better reflects the price after the move higher in the last year that is a 1 on the left and 2 on the right. 250. goldman sachs raising the price target they missed the entire move from 185 to 248 reiterating it on my journey, i was fortunate to come out early when i was in my 20s. it has given me a lifetime to build true, deep, authentic relationships based on honesty and truth. we can never stop celebrating and honoring pride month the important rights we won and those i hold dear and the ability to be married and to

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. that is what we saw last week in the mornings little bit of red. nothing huge nothing major. even though we have red in the s&p and some of the indices, we are still talking about almost 4,400, santoli. >> yeah. >> the s&p it is not supposed to be above 4,200. it wasn't supposed to get through that if it got to the 4,200 range, it would test the down side or the october lows or in mike wilson's case, the worst-case scenario

was 3,000. >> sure. median wall street strategist end of year target for the s&p is 4,225. >> those were the guys that were totally wrong. there were plenty of people. i accept stifel and piper and a half a dozen others. stifel has been right. piper. barry has been right he was here. he said what are you talking about taking us to 3,200 that i don't know about do you know? we don't know there may be a recession? we don't know all these things. >> these are the things when we thought we knew and priced them in >> i have been watching this since 1980 someone who has been in the business for three years and i'm supposed to listen >> a wide range of outcomes.

last week, bitcoin had the best week since march. joining us is tom lee. global adviser and cnbc contributor. we can talk bitcoin, but that is not why you are here in fact, i used to needle you at one point. i wasn't really needling you, but bitcoin dropped from 40,000 to 20,000. you were the well respected equity analyst you said you were sticking with your target. all of us would have why would you get involved with something that would hurt your reputation? >> yeah. >> kudos to you. doing the work needed to understand that there might be something to this which a lot of people have not done to this day. i want to talk about stocks. you have not been that negative this year on equities.

>> that's right. i think at the start of the year, a lot of folks thought we would have a hard landing and the fed would be tough on inflation. now at the midpoint and stocks up 13% the fed allowed markets to rise and financial conditions to ease it looks like we're slipping into expansion i think a lot of skeptical folks might be prsurprised. when you are mid-year and up over 10%, 9 out of 10 times, you finish the year stronger maybe add another 12% in the second half. >> so the history -- >> that would be 25%, mike >> markets trend i keep pointing out the s&p is 10% it was a year and a half ago when nominal gdp is up although we get stuck in the mode of we're up a lot, but we traded higher under different circumstances. >> yeah.

>> the fed has let -- it hasn't tried to stop the stock market, but not expansionary >> it is running tight policy. last year at the fmoc press conference and palowell was ask how the market was rallying, he got uncomfortable. he did not push back it is because inflation is going to set to track lower in the second half. you know, half of inflation is housing, cars and energy 55% of the cpi basket. we know housing will flatten out. used cars are rolling over energy is down it would take a lot for everything else to keep inflation above 2. >> the narrative is that the pent-up demand for services and experiences, you millennials, there is not enough plane seats

and restaurant seats or workers to staff all these things. they will keep asking for more wages. that will keep inflation high. >> yeah. it has been tough to see through. you know, those are beginning to cool on the wage side. it is not as big a part of the overall cpi basket as people realiz realize. it is roughly 25%. the fed is trying to contain that part of the basket. if you look at the stock market, inflation is set to cool sharply. >> the bond market >> yeah. the bond market. i think people when they look at valuation because i heard your guests talk about it and ex excluding faang, the market is 15 times forward which is reasonable. >> the old tech sector add back the internet stocks to the tech sector which is 35% of the index. outside of that, you are at

long-term median valuation >> that is right if we are starting to come off the worst of the economic numbers and earnings in q2 x energy is up year over year, people have to treat it like an early cycle market i know it sounds like an enigma, but we are slipping into expansioe expa expansion. >> you mentioned used car prices we had an analyst on kelsi somebody backed out used car prices and it is right where they want the number to be bizarre. i'm not sure backing out energy and looking at the core when energy -- you can back it out, but it filters through to all of the stuff we're talking about.

that is what causes inflation. >> that's right. the fed has a tough job. he has to sell year over year cpi to the public. next month, it probably comes in at 3%. we look at the diffusion like the percentage of cpi components in had inflation it is over 44% now they are deflatideflating. that is over the long-term average. the inflation is set to fall sharply in the second half >> we promised to talk about bit bitcoin. you saw cathie wood. 800,000 by the end of the decade maybe. even by 2025, 300,000. is that possible >> i think her idea of network value for bitcoin and scarcity still argues this is an upcycle and her numbers are correct in the 200,000 plus range

it is battle tested this year. we had some of the biggest regulatory hammers come down on crypto and bitcoin it it has bottomed. >> maybe not regulation compliant players are gone they got attention and imploded or been called out by one another. >> an exit stage left for players. we replaced them with the traditional players with a lot of credibility blackrock and citadel coming into bitcoin there are reasons to be optimistic. >> with equities, we priced them in a range what would you use for bitcoin stock to flow? >> you can use stock to flow you can look at break even on mining you know, a price to book metric you know, the good news is that

because of things that are like nft like bitcoin now which is a color coin you see an increase in minor activities. min miners are making money. unfortunately, it trades like a risk-on asset. the fact the s&p is up this year and nasdaq up 38%, those historically have been associated with the best years of bitcoin >> it is up a lot more at 17, it looked like it could go back to 8 it did earlier in the year not to say it can never again. people still have a pretty -- i still hear pet rock all the time beanie babibabies no inherent value. rat poison >> or backed by nothing. i think more and more traditional financial players realize the financial system is

really, you know, anchored by trust and trust in the system and also network value whether it is $1 or faang stock prices i think even credit derivatives. increasingly, that is explaining why bitcoin has held its levels and could be rising. >> santoli's old school. you don't have a firm opinion. >> i don't everything you said about bitcoin has always been said about gold gold is never really fully embraced by the mainstream always this kind of skepticism at the core. i don't think that necessarily qualifies it as something. >> nobody thinks gold is going to zero. >> not zero. there are things you use it for. >> that is not what makes gold valuable you need to have some way between different cultures of accepting something that you've done in exchange for something they've done there is no way to run anything

doing it that way. >> it will continue to be what it is. >> the people who love gold think it is insane to compare the two. >> it is a generational thing. bitcoin is a baby boomer thing and more millennial. a lot of the wealth will be transferred to younger folks >> okay, boomer? i'm millennial like. i'm feeling young. thank you, tom lee, i didn't realize that >> millennials are as old as 43. you can't use it as synonymous with the young kids. >> they have to move out of the basement thanks, tom. berkshire has sold byd

shares for $83 million it lowered the holders in the company to below 9% from 9.2%. coming up, aston martin preparing to launch the first ev details where it will source batteries next. and president biden is set to give a speech on the economy wednesday. we talk to the council economic adviser jared bernstein at 8:00 a.m. get the best of squawk on your favorite podcast app and listen any time we'll be right back. should get a seco nion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

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among the stories we are watching today, carmaker arrs t martin is buying batteries from lucid. aston martin is up. stitchfix appointing matt baer over christina lake who has run it on an interim basis lake will continue on as the executive chairwoman. and rihanna is steps down as ceo of savage x fenty. f-1 racing team alpine is

receiving a $20 million cash injection from investors including ryan reynolds. they will have a 24% stake in the french operation >> he was on a couple of weeks ago. coming up, we will talk about semafor's liz hoffman. she will talk about first republic. you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app. really awesome. yh.nternet thing? >>ea

in her latest piece, liz

hoffman dives into the exodus of first republic employees from jpmorgan after the regional bank's acquisition liz joins always attrition maybe after a deal, but in particular who's leaving and what does it say about jpmorgan in this business >> i would say some of the attrition was in the weeks leading up to the deal, which is an incredibly fraught time for first republic these are big relationship manager teams. whether the clients go with them, it's not a guarantee a couple of teams in new york went with flagstar, another beneficiary this spring, a bunch of others to citizen this is a business that jpmorgan has wanted to be bigger in for a long time. they punched way below their weight for a bur bunch of reaso. >> weather advisory for a certain category of customers? >> affluent have a pretty good

private bank, super high net worth. this is the medium worth people, a million to 5 million net worth t this is a business that they have the branch network of bank of america e and sort of the brand name of morgan stanley those two firms have 3, $3.5 trillion in assets. >> i guess they might say, morgan stanley was built on dean witter and smith barney and these retail brokerages that have been around forever, obviously b of a's merrill lynch. what are jpmorgan's ambitions in this area? is it a huge priority or are they just sort of willing to take people from, if you built up x amount in your checking account in chase, we want to just fold you into some other advisory service >> to your point, the other businesses, it's really hard to build this business rganically. you can pick off a team here is and there, the power houses in this business were all built through acquisitions there isn't that much left to

buy. they got first republic. raymond james is still out there. >> jpmorgan looked at acquiring raymond james. >> very seriously. that's left edward jones a smaller, privately held, harder to get at. it's got some of these rollups like the thing goldman bought a couple of years ago. united capital, high tower, lpl, maybe the ubs, payne weber business morgan stanley ease's taken a c of runs at them. >> jamie dimon dates his career back to smith barney essentially. that's where he came out of. >> yeah, has that dna, jpmorgan is somewhere between very good and unrivals in almost everything they do this is actually a little bit of a weak spot. they reorganized this business in 2019, this u.s. wealth management business, given it a lot of resources i think the time they had like 3,500 advisers and maybe 400,

$500 billion of assets today it's got 5,000 advisers and 600. so they're moving the needle a little bit first republic is the way to level up. >> it seemed as if the immediate verdict on that deal was that jpmorgan, you know, actually got good economics out of it it seemed like a decent opportunity. obviously it was a company in distress does that change with how it plays from here in terms of retaining people >> m&a is always tricky, especially in a business like this you have the financial advisers and then the clients underneath who frankly like, you know, went through the barrel this spring a couple of really white knuckled weeks, wondering if their money was safe jpmorgan has this incredible brand and really was a huge beneficiary financially and i think sort of from a brand perspective from the crisis this spring you know, see if they can capitalize on that. >> flag star is not one that -- you know, just put that in perspectiv

perspective in terms of who's taking up these teams. that feels as if it's people that just want to run their show, that are just looking at a bank to back them. >> wealth managers are a notoriously twitch ecy bunch. they will jump for a bag of money often. actually, i think you're starting to see the value of scale and platform is and brand in this business people have said for years this is a melting ie ce cube, that o man bands are going to hang on a shingle and take their clients with them. morgan stanley is $3.5 billion that's a lot of money. >> that is an interesting element of the morgan stanley versus goldman sachs, you know, constant comparison, which is the huge bet on kind of boring old wire house wealth advisory paid off. >> it's absolutely the big story on wall street over the last ten years that boring is in and the ones that were early on that and i think morgan stanley is the best example bank of america picked that up and merrill a little bit of

accident still, it's just a machine is and these things crank and turn on the lights on january 1st, and they've got a couple billion dollars of profits it's a really good business. >> it's all fees now. >>st it all fees shareholders love it regulators love it. >> it's the retail connection to individuals. i mean, i did that, and i understand it's hard it's a hard way to make -- it's easier now, i think, because you're not trying to eat what you kill every month the way it used to be for when it was a commission business. but still. >> it's a place where fees have been pretty steady you talk about fees on the brokerage side have effectively gone to zero the fees on the wealth side are come downs if it's a melting ice cube, it's melting awfully slowly. >> i was thinking about cord cutters and streaming. everything that's new, it seems good for a while, and then it's like, wow, i still really love

my cable i do >> they deliver a financial bundle for a fee they do. >> i was thinking all the way back to bank one and i was at merrill when we introduced the first cma account. jamie dimon was way back then. >> columbus was bank one >> yeah, liz, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> you learned a lot about barons you wrote about all this stuff repeatedly. >> i can tell you the name of many defunct firms that i used to cover absorb into something else. >> put tin is still around it's very -- it's a little -- >> yeah. spac. coming up, mercenary mutiny in russia over the weekend we have the details after the break. plus, ann rule will join us live from the aspen ideas

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good morning,s are investors are going to be keeping an eye on russia and europe this week right now the futures are lower

ahead of the open on wall street and a brief rebellion by private military group in russia adding to the instability in the region and putting pressure on oil market markets along with a new call from opec on oil demand. we're going o'hit both topics ia couple of minutes. it's all straight ahead as this second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin live at the aspen ideas festival, joe kernen, michael santoli, good morning, gentlemen we've got a lot going on here in aspen. we'll bring you that in just a little bit let's show you u.s. equity futures at this hour things looking a little lower

this morning the dow off about 38 points. nasdaq off 35 points s&p 500 off about 9 points treasury as you think about flipping the board around, the ten-year note at 3.683, the two-year at 4.701. joe, what's going on, my friend? >> ideas just -- i mean, are they just everywhere out there like flying -- >> they're like shooting stars >> i saw a couple. >> you're going to see a beautiful -- there is a beautiful mountain behind me i know it's early in the morning, so you can't see it yet. >> which one >> which one's back there? >> actually, that is true, guys, is this ajax behind us i think ajax is going to be farther over, but yeah the answer is jyes. the answer is our team here is saying ajax, a great mountain, right? >> perfect weather i would wager. lots of stuff going on back here, about 300 days of sunshine

a year out in colorado, and it's great for skiing, but in june it's just pristine, isn't it was it nice? >> i only got here last night. there's been a number of sessions and things already that have gotten started, but yeah, beautiful. can't complain >> beautiful >> this is -- i know it's hard work hard work. >> you are always overflowing with ideas as, you know, sitting across from me, you've got a lot of o'them did you bring a lot of them with you out there? >> i've tried to bring a couple, and we're going to try to get some ideas on the program this morning. we've got eric schmidt formerly of google. >> that should be interesting. >> eric has some long-term concerns, and he's smart. >> he does very smart larry fink is here he was speaking yesterday. we'll bring you some of that na news, interesting takes on where the fed is going

we've got mike werth from chevron, we'll bring you some of that tomorrow, mary barra from gm is here, a lot of business folks and other folks, yes, with lots of ideas, joe >> davos in january versus aspen in june. that's not even a -- not even a close call >> you can't, no >> thanks, andrew. we'll see you soon we'll be back. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers what's going on, dom >> all right, so, joe, let's take a look first of all of with a new trading week kicking off and a few analyst calls. moderna best known for its covid vaccines up nearly about 2.5% right now just around 7,000 shares of volume analysts over at ubs, they've upg up upgraded that stock. they had a target neutral on it, the target price does get cut to 191.

they cite the potential for future vaccines tied to its mrna technology saying the current valuation underappreciates the future product pipeline. we're watching shares of f alphabet, a class voting shares are down 1.5%, call it analysts over at ubs have downgraded it to a neutral from a buy. they raised the target price, though, to 132 it was 123 before. they cited amongst other things limited potential upside given lingering concerns about competition and costs. also better relative value and other internet names like amazon and meta alphabet shares down 1.5%, and we'll end with a check on electric vehicles and tesla specifically, the ev maker is down just about 2.25%, roughly 700,000 shares of volume analysts at goldman sachs are the latest to downgrade tesla stocks from a neutral to a buy rating they cited the same thing other analysts have. the big run up in the stock already. a more difficult pricing environment overall for new

cars joe, tesla shares down about 2% right now. we'll keep an eye on some of those names. i know over this weekend, i'm just going to bring up a little bit of golf. i don't know if you watched any of the travelers i was playing in an invitational golf event talking more about terrapins and pirates more than i ever have in my life the travelers, it's in my home state of connecticut, so i always like to kind of -- >> it is i saw that i saw keegan bradley, just a little bit i was watching a lot of baseball, and i got to watch that new red -- have you seen the hit for the cycle? i was there on friday night. joey vado hit two home runs. he went from first to third faster than a tesla. that was 12 straight wins for the reds do you know this will are you hip to this do you know what's going on? >> i am very in tune i'm not a reds fan per se, but

you can't miss this stuff on sports center. >> that's bs everybody is red fans. >> i didn't think the reds were going to have a 12-game winning streak >> george foster, ken griffin. >> erik davis. >> erik davis was the last guy to hit for the cycle in 1989. >> last red. >> i was going to complain about that goldman call, at least they had a buy on it, but when this guy thinks that we're going to forget his price target that used to be $60 lower, and now he's got the price target right where it is, and we forget, it's like you can't do that it's like going back and changing your test results a after -- and they totally missed this did you see when they cut the price target >> raised the price target >> the youubs call was okay. the price target is in line, but

they were right about it they had a higher price target as it moved up this guy had a price target 50 points below where it is. >> it was a month ago. that's when it blew through the price target a month ago. >> amazing >> it's just weird, strange to me how long it takes for some of the may ya ea culpas and then sf the revisions. >> and we're supposed to forget. >> that's why you're here in particular, joe, to hold every accountable for this stuff >> andrew. top story this morning, invest on edge after what was a wild weekend in russia some calling the armed rebellion the biggest threat to vladimir putin since he took office more than two decades ago joining us to talk about the broader impact of the revolt is long view global managing director, cnbc krcontributor, go morning to you it is dare i say the talk of the town, the talk of the world, it's been the talk here at the aspen ideas festival

what do you think actually happened, and what do you think is about to happen next? >> that's a good question, andrew good morning to you. listen, i think we had a situation where the wagner group certainly felt that they were shouldering a lion's share of the responsibilities out on the front line, not getting what they need from the ministry of defense. there's certainly some personal issues going on there between prigozhin and the ministry of defense. i think all of this boiled over, andrew it was a wild weekend for sure i have no idea what's happening next within russia you know, i've been thinking about this in terms of what it means for russia's external relationships, primarily china you may recall, andrew, that the deputy foreign minister for russia, andre ra dingo was in beijing, certainly trying to reassure beijing that everything was fine, nothing to see here, and trying to get reassurance from beijing, but it's been a

wild weekend for sure. >> so how do you think it changes the relationship if it does at all, and let's just say right now and stipulate, look a where the markets are this morning, down, not in any meaningful way should there be more is this a riskier situation than investors and the world are expecting? >> look, i think it is hard to see how we're not pricing any greater risk over the near and longer term for sure look, putin surf vvived and so i guess people are breathing a sigh of relief there this is a regime on life support. with respect to china, you know, they got the reassurance they were looking for publicly, but beijing is extremely worried about the instability that we all saw this weekend and what that may mean for the long-term for vladimir putin, and you know, this is not just any

state. this is one of the major nuclear powers in the world, so china does not want an implosion or failed state on his borders. so you know, for me, there's a lot of risk here i'm not sure that we're seeing that in any real way in the markets this morning, but we're not out of the woods. >> to the extent that you would price that in, price that risk in, i don't know if you think that's a risk to the oil markets. i don't know how you would stipulate that risk, but how how would you -- how would you measure it >> well, toi think, to your poit andrew, being one of the major producers of oil and gas, i think you have to look there for sure the broader commodities market as well. let's talk about the wagner group for a minute these guys are not just on the front lines in ukraine they happen to be in a number of places where they are protecting states that are extractive states so a lot of minerals so there are a lot of potential

risks here we have no idea what's going to happen to the wagner group's portfolio. i just don't see enough in terms of the preopen of a real concern that i have for these near-term and perhaps certainly long-term risks. >> and finally where do you think, or what kind of implication do you think this has on the war with ukraine? >> it's a good question. look, it's hard to say we know that wagner was the most effective fighting force on the front lines. i don't see how you reintegrate or integrate a mutinied force into your regular army i think this has to be to the upside for ukraine look, it's -- there's a lot still unknown about how this force is going to be redeployed, if they're going to be redeployed, and if not, i would say advantage ukraine. >> okay, thank you for jyour analysis of it all we'll be continuing to watch it, of course. >> thank you very much, andrew

>> thank you >> are you surprised are you surprised the market isn't moving more? >> not particularly just because the ways in which normally the markets get disturbed, whether it be commodity prices or something like that, doesn't seem like are very much in play. at this point it seems like scary headlines that the market doesn't have anything right now to really process. we'll see if that changes. coming up, market historian and finance professor jeremy siegel will join us with his take on the market and the fed let's get a check on the markets, modest declines in the major indexings, the s&p 500 down 7 points in the early going, it was down 1.4% last week "squawk box" will be right back.

we're watching shares of pfizer this morning, the company providing an update on two oral drugs that would treat obesity and type 2 diabetes. pfizer is discontinuing development of one candidate it said that decision is based on data from phase one drug interaction studies. it is continuing to advance the other candidate toward late stage development, which has a phase two b study in obesity fully enrolled that study is expected to be completed by the end of this year pfizer shares down 2% premarket.

in other news, ibm is buying enterprise software company apptio ibm expects the deal to close in the latter half of this year >> that's a horrific chart on pfizer >> yeah. >> big pharma's had a rough go, yeah. >> post-pandemic. >> absolutely. >> pfizer looks like it had a couple of injections of ozempic, doesn't it >> market cap, yeah. >> oh, my god. all right, coming up, wall street's new hot thing among public companies, private credit or privitay credit that story is next. and check out the price of bitcoin and oh cryptos this morning. off a little bit, over 30,000. we'll be right back. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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welcome back to "squawk box" live from the aspen ideas festival apollo global is leading a group of lenders making a debt investment of as much as $2 billion leslie picker joins this morning. how the public companies are now turning to the private credit world for funding.

leslie >> hey, good morning, andrew it's really interesting because private credit typically a type of fund-raising used by private companies, but increasingly this type of lending is inching into the public company arena as well, and the latest example of this as you mentioned is wolf speed, a semiconductor company that raised up to $2 billion in a correct lending deal led by apollo alongside two other asset managers that's according to a person familiar with the matter the deal itself is emblematic of a trend that sources say will soon become more popular public, multinationals opting to borrow billions of dollars from firms like apollo rather than the traditional way of using universal banks to syndicate the debt out to other investors. now, this is happening because so much capital has funneled into the private credit space, although it has slowed in recent years. still, the strategy has pl ballooned to about $1.5 trillion in assets.

that's triple the level from just a decade ago. so with so much dry powder, check sizes have gotten much larger bringing larger public borrowers into the fold. now, while champions of private credit tout the speed, efficiency, and price certainty of getting deals done, they can also be more expensive with a premium over a syndicated loan yield. they're not subject to the same leverage rules, borrowers can be riskier. wolfspeed is adding more debt to the 3 billion already on its balance sheet with negative free cash flow and negative ebitda and a stock price down more than 25% this year, andrew. >> i remember speaking about rowen just a couple of weeks ago, the ceo of apollo about this trend that's developing one of the critiques has always been that, you know, a bank doesn't want to own your business, if you get a loan from them, but apollo or some of the private folks in part because they're in the private equity business of owning portfolios of actual operating companies, if

things go wrong, they'd be very happy to own your company. how much kind of feedback do you hear about that? >> yeah, that's obviously a huge appeal this is $2 billion with essentially three investors from apollo if you're a company, that's, you know, a lot fewer people you have to talk to in terms of, you know, potential complaints or other issues you just have to really make three different asset managers happy when it comes to your debt holders for this specific, you know, type of debt so for them, yes, that's definitely something that companies are finding attractive now, you may pay up for it as i mentioned, there's usually a premium for this type of debt relative to syndicated debt. there's two sides of the canine. >> leslie picker with the beginning i think of something that we're going to be seeing a lot more of, appreciate it very, very much. joe. >> thanks, andrew. opec projecting the global oil demand will rise to 110

barrels per day by 2045. that's an increase of 23%. that is staggering joining us now to talk about this and the turmoil in russia and the risks to global supply, em rita sen, energy aspects founder and director of research i saw something earlier too that fossil fuel contribution to the global energy, which is going to rise 1% energy usage this year stuck at 82% all the renewable progress that we're trying to make has not moved the needle one iota versus what fossil fuel at 82%, and now we hear this we better keep drilling, amrita. >> yeah, and i think this is the biggest challenge we have, right, just the lack of education among people who keep talking about oil demand has already peaked or is about to peak the reality is when you have emerging market nations growing

just generally, oil and energy demand is synonymous with economic growth. sure, we can talk about not requiring any fossil fuel demand, but then we are going to have to accept that economic growth is not going to happen as well i think the percentage you're talking about there is so crucial. that percentage hasn't changed since the 1980s. back in 1980s, fossil fuel used to be 82% of total primary energy consumption today that percentage is pretty much exactly the same. new growth is being met by renewable, and of course we're going to continue to see that. to rule out oil fully, it's a huge mistake that's the problem we're seeing, not enough investment. people keep talking about peak oil demand. >> can you connect any dots between the development in russia over the weekend and where you can oil should be headed we got a -- you know a, a big hf

a pr percent move higher with a the developments. >> this has been a very interesting market, right? because we've seen paper balances being very strong and since the start of the year demand has actually come in higher than expectations everybody, every trader we speak to is kind of struggling with the same issue balances do suggest very strong draws, but the market isn't pricing like that. part of the story is destocking because of higher interest rates. everybody is getting rid of inventories quick ly with geopolitical risks even though there is no outage, and we're not expecting an outage from russia, the risk is rising. does it mean refineries back off from stocking and you get more security of supply concerns and people actually start to buy again. we are confident that we're going to get those stock draws we are starting to see them already, and i do think prices will head higher but that -- the destocking plus

the present contract change is really marking waters this year. >> you mentioned demand and you mentioned destocking, but where's the real supply worries? why did -- why do the saudis even feel we're just flush with oil right now? >> where is it really coming from, amrita >> we've had the u.s. grow somewhat again, well within expectations. we've had some growth from kind of guyana and canada, but the place where we've seen more than expected supply has actually been iran. we've raised our production forecast for iran from pretty much q2 onwards for the rest of the year but -- and that is very much, again, the u.s. has been trying to ease tensions and unofficially allowing them to export more, and then the big thing has really been china has been hoovering una lot of that

iranian oil, which is what's allowed iran to pick up supplies even regardless of this, the reason saudi arabia has cut production and opec plus are doing what they're doing, for them it's much more of a demand worry rather than a supply worry. they are worried about a western recession, what central banks are doing there. iran has changed the balance for us the most. >> all right, amrita, thanks glad we got the camera fixed see you soon. the wharton school's jeremy siegel joins us with his take on markets for the trading week ahead. that is next. we'll talk to chair of the council of economic advisers jared bernstein for the latest out of washington on psintrede biden's plan for the economy stay tuned you're watching "squawk box. this is cnbc complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions.

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

futures at this hour continue to indicate very modest declining es at the open in this final week of june our next guest says economic risks are to the downside, but cyclical stocks are priced for a moderate recession let's bridge in jeremy siegel. professor, good to see you this morning. so i guess you're suggesting, look, we're sitting on 13% gain

in the s&p on a year-to-date basis as everybody has remarked, it has been largely driven by a lot of the secular growth stocks that have gotten pretty excitable here but you actually think the market is registering the likelihood of downside risk to the economy? >> yes, i do -- you know, i sat on cnbc on january 2nd in the morning before the market opened, and i was asked what do you think the market's going to do, s&p this year, and i said 10 to 15% i thought it was going to be the second half more than the first, and yes, total return has been 14.2 to date interesting enough, you take the russell 2000 or you take almost any value in that, and it's been 4% you know, as we said i think basically the cyclical stocks are priced for a mild

recession right now. and again, i wont be surprised if that happened and i think as a result we could get a lot of churn in the second half of this year. silly me thinking, oh, it's going to be the second half. and of course market looks ahead. it turned out to be the 15% in the first half, but i -- you know, it's hard to see a lot of upside catalysts for the market in the second half of this year. and you know, we were talking, i've been saying that inflation basically with current indices has been dead really for six, eight months, and they're just getting the residuals through on their official indexes, you know, that powell is so concerned about. and i really think -- i think it's very likely we're not going to get those two increases by the end of the year. >> yeah, as many as even powell

has recognized, you know, keeping rates right here or maybe nudging them a little bit higher if inflation, in fact, is declining quickly, you know, the math says you're actually becoming more restrictive on monetary policy in real terms, right? so i guess the question is, do you think that a mild recession is something that would disturb the markets given the fact that we've kind of been living with this risk for a year and a half at least, and as you say, if i look at the credit card issuers, you know, anything that's durable goods related, even the auto stocks, the traditional auto stocks on a two-year basis, they're down a lot still >> right well, i think the bright side of a mild recession is that not only will we not get rate incre increase but i think there's still -- even though everyone's saying there's no possibility that we would get rate decreases by the end of the year they're not going to like -- they're going to like the

interest rate consequences of this a couple things, we all know jobless claims have not been looking good these last three months elevated there are going to be two more before we get the june report. we're going to see the money supply report again tomorrow it's going to be, i think, the 12th or 13th consecutive decline in liquidity in earnings you know, my feeling is, you know, one thing i was thinking of, that blockbuster homebuilders housing starts data that we get, and everyone said, oh, yeah, the economy's so fine. but i think think about this over the last three years home prices have gone up nationwide 50%. mortgage rates have almost tripled. that means if you're financing with an 80% mortgage, the cost of home ownership has tripled over the period.

and what has happened to real incomes over the last three years? stagnant so what i see, it's the biggest component of consumer price index. if you're a new homebuilder, you're not going to have all this cash for consumption for trips, for cars, for everything else, which is keeping the economy going. so you know, again, i'm looking at that, we're looking at the student loan payment restarting. we're looking at elevated jobless claims i'm not talking about disaster, but you know, when people are saying, you know, what is on that upside, i just don't see as many factors >> yeah, less of a cushion for sure professo professor, i think andrew has a question for you >> you don't have the conventional wisdom, per se ever, the convention wisdom on

when the fed moves, you're talking about the potential of a rollback at some point there's a whole number of folks out here that are concerned about actually many more rate increases, i'm curious in terms of how much wiggle room you think you have in your own forecast in, in fact, there was an additional quarter, maybe 2 or even quarter point rate hikes after the ones that are already expected >> well, i wonder what people, again, are looking at to think that the fed is going to suddenly get scared at inflation? oil prices are well behaved. commodity prices are extremely well behaved we know the shelter part is going to come way down second half of the year we know the handle on inflation will go down to 3% on the next one. we know about used car praises, new car prices you know, if the fed does go three or four, you know, i would be worried but i would be wondering, you know, what data are they looking at that has gotten them so, you know, so frightened that they

think they have to push those real rates, which they've already pushed almost by a record amount even higher. so yeah, i mean, obviously they're always going to be a surprise that sparks that inflation. i just don't see it right now in the market >> yeah, and clearly the fed paused for a reason to see how that exactly plays out good to speak with you thanks very much. >> thank you very much, steve. >> okay. coming up on the other side of this break, a warning about flight delays from transportation secretary pete buttigieg. we'll have that when "ua" tus ter this

welcome back to "squawk box. nearly 14 ,400 flights were canceled yesterday and 9,000 were delayed as thunderstorms snarled air travel across the country at some of the busiest airport. that's according to flight tracking service flight aware. the faa briefly halting departures to major airports serving washington, d.c., due to repairs needed at a power panel at an air traffic control facility the faa saying a backup seayste

was handling it. transportation secretary pete buttigieg now warning of the potential for air travel disruption ahead of a deadline for airlines to retrofit equipment to avoid potential interference from 5g wireless signals. you remember the debate we've about that for many years, s starting july 1st, u.s. wireless companies planning to boost their 5g service to higher power levels when that happens aircrafts without the upgraded condition won't be cleared to land in certain weather conditions last year tat&t and verizon agreed to delay. since then more than 80% of the domestic fleet and 60% of international planes have made the necessary upfwgrades we're going to talk to the former acting faa administrator daniel elwell in the 8:00 hour

about saturday's deadline and the big fight between the faa and the cellular service carriers around the country that's been taking place now for years, mike. >> absolutely. we'll get to that soon. still to come on "squawk box," council of economic advisers chairman jared bernstein, check out some crypto related stocks this morning. you see coin bias, riot, marathon, digital just to name a few, all of them sort of modestly to the downsi aer is good run we've seen in crypto pricing "squawk box" will be right back. . massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. (♪♪) (basketball swish) i've been connected to camden high basketball since i was very young. dad played here. grandpa played here and then there was me. (camera shutter clicks) playing for camden high was a huge thing for me. it wasn't just high school basketball to me. it was way bigger than that.

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breaking news in the world of golf, tgl developed by tiger woods and rory mcilroy in partnership with the pga tour has a new team representing boston in the new england region for more on this news, let's bring in fenway sports group chairman tom warner, tgl ceo mike mccarly, and tgl has a long list of celebrity investors including dwayne the rock johnson, steph curry, serena williams thanks for joining us. you need to start at the ground level for both me our viewers. what are we talking about? how's it work? what's the new team going to be? the patriots is taken, isn't it? >> we don't have the name of the team we're excited to be in this league it's a new format. it's innovative. it's a fusion between live golf and technology. >> liv golf or live?

>> live golf, this is going to be a great prime time live event for 15 weeks, and we're excited to be a part of it >> how'd it come about go back to square one and talk about how -- >> square one was rory and i were sitting here with you guys launching a different digital business in partnership with nbc sports golf pass, and rory had this thesis around embracing technology to introduce the game to new people. i went to talk to tiger. he had invested in some tech businesses around golf, completely understood the concept, and it was really if we were creating a sports league for 20 -- in 2023, what would it look like. so you take a four and a half hour round of golf, use technology to condense it down to two hours, perfect for prime time, you never worry about sunrise or sunset or weather delays and you create a short form kind of snackable version of golf that, frankly, fans and younger fans are going to have a certain

appeal for that they may not have the time to sit through, you know, a traditional four-day, four and a half rounds of got them. and it was just going to be additive to the guys' schedule so they could slide it in after monday night football is over, january to april, and really make something that i think the fans would embrace in a way that's complementary to the traditional game. >> amazing so who's involved at this point? how many cities? >> a couple weeks ago we announced alexis o'han yan, serena and venus williams. today we're now seeing don and tom and the fenway sports group. you look at those two as the first two. there's going to be six teams told for the inaugural season that kicks off next year. >> and there's been some other news in golf recently. how does that change any of your viewpoint?

>> no. this idea has been in the idea stage for three years, and it's the best golfers in the world. and when the full roster is announced -- >> liv and pga. >> the best golfers in the world. >> pga tour members, i mean, rory -- we think of rory and tiger on one side of things, don't we are we all -- >> yeah, rory, tiger, jon rahm, rickie fowler, justin thomas i mean, the list goes on and on. we've announced 12 of the top players, most of whom live in and around palm beach, florida so that makes it easy to get them to the venue and play and that's what makes it additive to their schedule so you get the greatest players in the world competing really what's in front of fans who are kind of sitting there in a courtside nba type environment it will be a lot of fun for fans and the players are going to rook at this as a new competitive outlet. >> i don't know if you remember the 1999 ryder cup at brookline

country club, but it was raucous, and we're going to try to create that kind of excitement >> was that the -- trying to remember, was that justin l leonard? >> yes, yes. >> i do remember that. >> how do you forget that course, we saw another putt lik, evening longer, 70-footer at the canadian >> one of the things that i found out in this process is that more people now are playing simulated golf, kind of top golf as playing green grass golf. so this is on a great growth trajectory >> what's the thought behind kind of creating regional fan attachment to something like this because it's not something that golf typically has >> sports are tribal if you look at team sports through history, there's a strieblism tribalism it may not be any greater than what the fenway sports group has

in boston. associating ourselves with a group that can represent a city is something that a casual fan can really identify with that's the key these guys build communities and their teams in unbelievable way. it will take that history and bring it to a modern audience. >> pretty exciting it's fun off camera i did talk about the problems with pitchers and bullpens pip got to ask you about that don't you love the new speed >> we've been so pleased with the reaction >> i'm glad you can't do the shift anymore either >> me, too the fans are -- >> i like watching the pitcher squirm they're like i can't it's right there and i can see they're not ready but that's good >> it's good and the action is more condensed, more balls in play and people get home at 10:00 at

night. >> games are, what, 30 minutes shorter? >> about 30 minutes shorter. >> and the way it used to be, i mean, it was in a playoff game or world series there would be some drama watching the bases loads, 3-2, and you could just see the tension is unbelievable in baseball but this is definitely better. and those guys -- the batter would step out, the pitcher would step out >> with their batting glove even when they hadn't swung at a pitch. >> sorry not to just talk about the new news today but who is your pick this year? >> to do what? >> who do you think are the best teams right now? >> atlanta is -- and look at what's going on in cincinnati, your team. >> i thought you might mention that i was there friday night they could have won saturday and sunday, too. >> you guys want to move

divisions? >> the red sox are in the toughest division in baseball. >> i know, i know. >> and between tampa and baltimore. >> it's crazy. >> what do you think is going to -- either one of you guys can weigh in >> i have no crystal ball at all. >> should it go through? >> i think the details of what will be worked out sound like, you know, will be worked out >> you know rory >> i haven't talked to rory about it deals like this are incredibly complicated, as you know it will take some time to get a lot of the details sorted out. >> i'm going to end on this. the producer of the show says golf -- you don't need to be an athlete. roar

ror rory mcilroy or tiger woods is not an athlete craig stadler -- >> who was the golfer who hit 200 mile-an-hour >> we're testing the technology. we have a guy who can swing at 206 miles an hour. >> good luck, yes. >> thank you for having us >> this is all new to me and the whole idea of it sounds good we'll talk more about that other sport. >> all right new this morning berkshire hathaway has sold 2.5 million hong kong listed shares of byd

for $86 million. strikes by starbucks workers disrupted operations at dozens of cafes this weekend and they pledge to keep writing the union has accused the company of limiting the ability for workers to hang pride decorations in stores. some managers told baristas they didn't have enough time to decorate or that the decorations didn't align with guidelines and their environments the ceo defended their commitment to the lgbtq community and suggested this advocates for the union were wrongly exploiting the situation. the company said it closed 21 stores early since friday because of staffing shortages. 104 locations had staffs

participating in the strikes including seattle, baltimore, philadelphia and pittsburgh. andrew >> thanks, joe a lot more coming up on squawk president biden coming up. jared bernstein will give us the latest out of washington and former google ceo eric schmidt will join us to talk a.i., foreign relations and so much more. big hour ahead rig hhtere on "squawk box" when we return.

good morning it is the final week second quarter and the first half of the year major averages just had their worst week in three months but for the year, amazing. futures are fairly calm for the moment investors don't seem overly concerned about this past weekend's attempted mutiny against the russian military and we'll talk russia, china and the promise and perils of a.i. with former google ceo eric schmidt. that picture from just before he took over ceo of google. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin becky is off this morning. gentlemen, great to see you. it's been a great show so far. a lot to show you from new york as well. a little bit of red on the screen but at much as you might have imagined given what seemed like a lot of tnension over the weekend. treasury yields we've been talking about what the fed may or may not do but right now you're looking at the 10-year note, 3.698, the 2-year at

4.720. joe? >> thanks, andrew. relative calm returning to russia after the seizure of a strategic city of the wagner group militia. prigozhin has apparently been granted amnesty. and vladimir putin congratulated participants of an industrial forum. it wasn't clear when today's statement was actually recorded. putin hasn't addressed the deal with prigozhin russia's defense minister made his first appearance since the uprising russia called on the country to remain united behind president putin but secretary of state antony blinken said the mutiny

did expose cracks in the system calling it extraordinary and something to behold. >> wasn't it it was truly something to behold we were talking to mike santoli br about where the markets were >> i was surprised and also, i don't know, unsettled, i guess we have actually said there's some people actually relieved that putin is okay and going to stay in power. that just shows you the fear of, you know, not calling him a devil but the expression the devil you know >> the devil you know. >> we know about the amount of nuclear weaponry still in the former ussr and it's frightening

and daunting it's hard -- you've seen the doomsday clock and things like this just make me understand, i don't know, why we're less than a month potentially from something that can be really, really frightening we had michael hanlon on we're not experts on who the successor to putin would be at this point or who that would be. it's all open to conjecture. it's scary >> there was a fascinating impromptu session set up yesterday about this issue and the devil you know was a big part it have we're going to talk about eric schmidt. he was in ukraine and we're going to spend some time talking to him about that given the technology of war as well. so a lot going on this morning let's bring you up to date on the big headlines at this hour, business headlines that is ibm reaching a deal with vista

equity partners. the deal should help ibm in its focus on hybrid cloud and a.i. more than 1,400 flights, meanwhile, cancelled yesterday the sorkin family was affected by the way, folks, unfortunately. more than 9,000 were delayed as thunderstorms snarled air travel at some of the country's busiest airports and then we should tell you about oil cartel saying global oil demand rose to 110 barrels a day. the group secretary general telling a gathering in malaysia. that means oil is irreplaceable for the foreseeable future i've got an interview about that which i will bring with you tomorrow >> and mike's gone and the camera is like a foot away from

my face now. because you're at what you do. you're at the telestrator. this better be good. >> the furniture's got to move when we need to show the big etch a sketch here look at the s&p 500. there was some textbook as a consolidation after this big rally. second half of june if you want to scale out what would be a routine pullback, in the 4200 area where we broke out from is where we're looking. so so far we're not right there, but that would still kind of stack up as being nothing particularly alarming in terms of the trends now. a lot of concentration on how narrow or not. industrials relative to the overall s&p 500 and it's a very selective market, winners versus losers industrials up 16% on a one-year basis, they've maintained an

outperforming stance that's not just about a.i., not just about fang. clearly there's been some participation in other parts now stocks versus bonds perhaps could continue to be a little bit of a side story. very wide out performance by equities those the total stock market index relative to bonds, some convergence last week as stocks did decline. you have asset allocation stuff where you would sell equities to rebalance into bonds if you have that kind of portfolio something to keep in mind as we get to the last of june at the end of this week, joe. >> mike, it seems -- i don't know, half the year now is going to be up so we like to do, you know, compartmentalize and look at things in segments it makes us look back at the past six months and wonder where we're headed >> a little bit of house money

built up >> you get a good first half, rarely does it go back to unch by the end of the year it usually continues and maybe double digits. >> one of those exception years might be '87 where we gave back most of it >> you had to go back to 40 years for that let's not talk about that year, which i remember oh so well. anyway, thank you. andrew >> meantime, joe, president biden set to give a big economic speech in chicago. that's going to happen on wednesday. it's going to focus on his economic priorities, being called bidenomics. joining us, jared bernstein. jared, always good to see you. help us understand what we're going to be hearing. that article over the weekend, is jeffrey katzenberg doing a

lot of the true advising here? did you read that? >> the architect of bidenomics is biden what we're talking about is something this president has brought to his economic analysis ever since he was in congress and when he was vice president when i was his chief economist building the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not the top down, built on they key pillars, investing more right here in america, making smart public investments that's a massive reversal from decades of disinvestment and americans getting a fair part of the pie and fighting back on industry, lower costs and to help entrepreneurs make the small business gains that we've seen 10 million small business applications in the past two years, that's a record

>> take us inside the room i imagine you've seen the polls. you've seen the former president, president trump's numbers go up, not down. this after being indicted. how do you explain that and can you explain how the american public is looking and thinking about this economy under this president and why if the numbers are as positive as you think they are, you think either that message is not getting out or being understood or resonating what is happening? >> i think part of it depends on what kind of indicators you're looking at just one very slight pushback. it's not that i think these numbers are strong, it's that they are strong. 13 million jobs, that's a record since the president got here unemployment below 4% for a year and a half that's a record. record number of job vacancies, real wages grow over the past

year so all of these are on the books. that doesn't mean your question isn't a valid one but let me speak to that. so we're here to talk about bidenomics when you ask people, you get very favorable responses you get numbers in the 70%, in the 75% range. people are very excited about infrastructure people are extremely content with their job security right now. we recently hit an all-time historical high in terms of how people are feeling about the quality of theirjob and their job security that's immensely important to this president if you ask people about the investments in broad band, we're talking about a $42 billion investment so everyone can have access to high speed broadband this is like where every house gets electricity now we doing that for broad band put a microphone in front of

them yourself and you'll hear very different responses >> i'm not disagreeing with you on the numbers what i'm trying to get at is not even why you think the public -- why it's not resonating. >> i can speak to that >> gavin newsom in that interview with sean hannity lists the numbers. it's very impressive i think everybody will say the numbers are very impressive but if you were to ask somebody on the street, it's not that they appreciate them in the same way that you might >> so look, i'm an economist, if you haven't noticed, a very nerdy, in the weeds economist for better or worse. i don't have -- i'm not probably the right person to talk to vis-a-vis political partisanship and the kinds of political science issues that you're invoking here. however, if i can stray into that lane a little bit, i do think that when you ask the

question from 30 or 40,000 people, you're getting a lot of partisanship and you know that we're in an extremely partisan time what i think is much more important, especially when we're talking about economic policy and the kind of work you do there at cnbc that i much admire, i think we hav down to cases and ask people specifically about what this administration is doing, how do you feel about finally reversing decades of disinvestment, about fixing that bridge, by the way, and this is federal, state and local, i want to make sure the credit goes around, fixing that bridge on i-95 in philly in two weeks. broad band -- high speed access to broad band in rural areas, fixing our ports, our bridges, our roads. all of that crowds in private investment it's the exact opposite of the

prior view of the top down cut public investment. >> it's all about the inflation, jared. you know that. i know your job is to spin everything in the best possible light but real wages haven't grown in the last year we talked about this last time people are not back to making what they were when biden came into the presidency. and people aren't stupid they know exactly how they feel about the economy. his economic performance is at an approval of about 35% right now. the 13 million jobs you're calling a record are people coming back after they were put out of work by covid and we finally got back to where we were before it started and we're just barely above that so, you know, to mention all these things in a way where people aren't just totally clueless about what's really happening jared. you can't just use one-offs to -- nobody's gotten a raise. real wages are down. so 24 straight months real wages

were down because inflation ate away at the increases. >> so we have a factual disagreement i guess i'll have to post something on my twitter feed econjared46. >> in may -- >> 24 straight months they weren't! >> in may it was the first time we had a year-over-year increase in real wages up 0.2%, that's may. for the past six months -- actually since june. actually for more than the past six months we've had real wages go up on a monthly basis again, i will post that on my twitter feed i want to get much more precise about what you're saying i think you're fundamentally wrong. if the only thing people cared about was inflation -- one of those people was joe biden, it's one of the reasons it remains

one of our top priority and we seen inflation come down 11 months in a row. it was 9%, 4%, that's a 5% decline. but we have more work to do. but people also care a lot about job security, about employment, about the quality of their jobs. those numbers are looking very impressive people care a willot about reversing decades of disinvestment, about getting rid of noncompete clauses, and, yes, people care a lot about inflation but it is not the only thing they care about. i think you're wrong about that, joe. >> i was trying to help you explain why his economic approval is 35%. >> ask people about the specifics. you got a microphone ask people about the specifics and see what they say and get me back here to talk about it with

you. >> all right, jared. i'll thank you, jared. andrew, i can see andrew thank you. >> we're all thanking you. we appreciate the conversation when we come back on the other side of this, are the nation's airlines ready for 5g signals? and don't miss our special conversation on a.i. later this our right here in aspen with the former google ceo eric schmidt stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

sleepovers just aren't what they used to be. a house full of screens? basically no hiccups? you guys have no idea how good you've got it. how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights.

we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. welcome back to "squawk box. yesterday during a panel with david reubenstein and whether the fed thinks we're heading toward a recession >> i don't think it's their responsibility whether there's a recession or not a recession their biggest responsibility is financial stability and the second one is curbing inflation. i don't think we're going to have a recession and i think the federal reserve is going to have

to tighten two to four more times. >> and also addressing the phrase esg >> i don't use the word esg anymore because it's been entirely weaponized. it was weaponized by the far left and far right it's been totally weaponized i'm ashamed of being part of this conversation. when i write these letters, it was never meant to be a political statement. i don't believe they were written as a political statement. they were written to identify long-term issues >> a lot of debate about esg we'll be talking more about that here in aspen. nbc news group is the media partner of the festival and a lot of nbc folks out here. lester holt will be hosting or

anchoring "the nightly news" from here. and coming up, eric schmidt will talk about the latest developments in a.i. and how china may view this weekend's armed rebellion in russia. you're watching "squawk box. this is cnbc a heart valve problem. so if there's a better treatment than warfarin... i'm hungry for that. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk better than warfarin. and has less major bleeding than warfarin. eliquis has both. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily... or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. ask your doctor about eliquis.

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. who are the victims of the fed raising rates? >> i don't think demand could be any stronger >> wouldn't have imagined this two years ago but it couldn't be more bullish at the moment >> we did see a lot of inflation last year. >> we see some of the cost of good starting to moderate a bit. that's really helpful. as summer travel gets into

full swing, transportation secretary pete buttigieg is warr warning of more flight disruptions this week. he says only planes that have onboard equipment upgraded will be able to land when visibility is poor. joining us for more is daniel elwell actually, mr. elwell not ready just yet we will try to get to him in a little bit, joe. >> do you have any deja vu from 1999 from y2k. remember >> we've got this technological time bomb about to go off? >> doesn't seem quite as pervasive. >> not as pervasive but maybe a lot more serious what was that, andrew? i don't know if andrew can hear us or not.

you with us, andrew? >> i'm here, i'm here. >> ask eric schmidt why that didn't happen, will you? he's a genius about technology and everything how could we think it was going to happen and then it didn't happen >> well, there's a line of thinking that because we were so afraid in it, people invested to take care of it before it became an issue >> why are you relitigating something from 20 years ago? >> because of the 5g problem we're on the cusp of this as well is it similar? all these things are going to break down if we don't update everything i guess. i hope it's worthwhile for you downloading your better call saul episodes more quickly >> thank you i'm looking forward to it. >> coming up, former sec chairman jay clayton will join us on the set. a reminder, you get the best on

"squawk box" on our daily podcast. follow on your favorite app. there's a very ythouful looking jay clayton. we'll be right back.

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with us now on set, former sec chairman and cnbc contributor jay clayton. he's joining us to talk about the government's latest spate of regulatory actions and actions against amazon for alleg allegedly luring customers to subscribing to prime he's a renaissance man i'm sure you thought about the developments over the weekend. we want to start with that what do you think this means for putin, the war in ukraine, everything that -- our relationship with russia, oil markets. too big of an issue for you? you've thought about it, right >> i think we've all thought about it >> you know people in high places >> it's been kind of remarkable that the markets are so stable,

including the commodity markets. what's interesting to me is 50,000 troops, you know, some estimate about how much that costs per week, what is it, $5 million, $50 million depending how much you're paying them. where is that cash coming from it kind of goes back to the beginning of the war and sanctions. what do we know? the world has found a way to get the resources that russia is producing and pay for them where else would this money be coming from? you're looking at the commodity markets and people are saying, hey, they can figure this out, which is, you know, we should take something away from that, that we really have not disentangled from what i would say is the very hot, very unfortunate, very amoral places in the world when it comes to commodities. >> does that mean that it's not effectively feasible to have

sanctions that actually bite or does it mean it wasn't executed the correct way? >> i think it's more the former than the latter. you know, you have to have partnerships around the world for sanctions to be effectible in global markets and that's a lesson we're learning here and it is a key takeaway for the future >> so obviously the oil is -- >> it's flowing. >> it's flowing from russia. we should have known that from $69 a barrel, the saudis doing all they can to try to soak up some of that >> includes we heard reports they're worried about a potential recession maybe not in the united states but the rest of the world they don't want oil to drop further. >> i don't know if you saw the jared bernstein interview. he talked about the three basic tenets of what he called bidenomics and i think the third one was competition. i think he was talking about putting teeth in the regulatory agencies in terms of anti-trust

and that brings the microsoft activision deal and every other deal that's not going to get done in the biden administration perhaps not going to get done. >> let's take this to a very high level on the regulatory side what you're hearing from the leaders of the regulatory organizations is if we're not losing cases, if we're not being pushed back on by the courts, we're not doing enough think about that for a second. that is a fundamental shift in how we as americans view the role of the government i don't want to be in a place where i know the government is going to bring cases they think they're going to lose. imagine if you're the person who is the subject of that case. >> see if they can and if they're not stopped. >> this is the ethos now, unless we're losing, we're not bringing enough cases that may be fine for private litigants bus when you have the power of the state, you're

supposed to only bring cases and make rules that you think are going to pass judicial muster. i think we should think about whether that's appropriate or not. we can go into the details of each one of these cases or regular haitians but at a 30,000 foot level, i think that's problematic. >> but you do recognize there was a lot of criticism up to this phase in general government not wanting to really take on anything that wasn't a complete slam dunk case or, you know, get it out there just to the point of having some kind of descent decree or some kind of we're not going to admit or deny guilt but we're going to get a fee off of you. >> believe me, if you look at my record at the sec, we're all for bringing cases during our tenure we had the first and second highest financial remedies in the history of the sec but we weren't about bringing cases we

think we might lose. i think there's a big difference there. >> are we at this point -- do you think companies are just saying i'm not even going to try at this point? >> you always -- let's go to something that's a hot buttonish you right now. the potential combination of regional banks, mid-tier banks, which virtually everyone agrees needs happen the question is if i announce a deal, is it going to go through? if it's not going to go through, you're putting your company at risk what we're not hearing from regulators is we're actually going to make decisions on these deals in a predictable and embassy paident way. it both time if you want to see the consolidation that we all think is necessary in the regional and small bank, you actually need to demonstrate that you're going to give people an answer and that answer is

predictable. >> just across the board, do you think that the current regime are going to rationalize operations and do better all mergers basically there's going to be a loser. there are good reasons that we've allowed hand off in terms of what the private sector want to do to be as good as it can and compete globally >> you make the right point. if you take the stat tech, health care, what i would say -- even military industrial where we've had leadership, mergers have produced better results for consumers. we know that we talk about -- look at the

rool real price of -- >> don't you think she would say all mergers are bad? >> i don't think think she thinks all mergers are bad i think she thinks powers in mergers need a great deal of checking. >> back to the idea of consolidating banks, do you think there's any rethink of that posture people were afraid of deposit concentration. you had thee caps on deposits. what we've seen in the lafew months is a reverse issue. if you're going to make the decision to announce a merger, you need more than talk. you need certainty of time and certainty of result. >> yes >> all right, jay. i was going to ask you about

whether ancht i. was going to end. >> you're a renaissance man. >> there's no question >> was that not a good angle to where is the money coming from to finance a wagner -- >> kidneys kidneys. >> just trying to keep up. >> all right >> well, coming up, a wide ranging conversation with former google ceo eric schmidt. you do not want to miss that and with just one week left in the second quarter, here's how the major tech temperatures have fared since the beginning of april. very well. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish.

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>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning we have some sad news to bring you. jim crown was killed yesterday in a vehicular crash at a racetrack in woody creek, colorado he was the chairman and ceo of henry crown, manager and partner of aspen skiing behind me. he was lead director of general dynamics and trustee of the aspen institute. jamie dimon out with a statement

this morning we are here at the aspen idea festival, something that was one of his favorites i remember being here last year and having dinner with his wife, paula and his children yesterday was jim's 70th birthday "squawk box" will be back after this do you ever worry we'll live forever? no, it's literally never crossed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money. and i have been eating all these stupid chia seeds!

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welcome back to "squawk box. we are at the aspen ideas festival arc schmidt is here. the former google ceo and ext executive chairman he's the co-author of a.i. and thank you for waking up early. so much to talk to you about i want to talk about a.i. and all of it but i want to talk about what we saw over the weekend in part because you just came back from ukraine and had so many sort of interesting

lessons about the intersection of technology, frankly, and war. what did you see >> first, i don't know prigozhin but the wagner group is s responsible for some the greater a atrocities in ukraine so the less of him the better and there are very long lines and trenches and line and line imagine the courage of somebody trying to get across that line you get shot at by drones, you get machine guns, you have mines. you eventually get to the other side, you hit your target and artillery behind you takes you out. >> what was it like being there? >> the morale in ukraine is surprisingly high. the air raid sirens go off and

they ignore them >> did you ignore them is this. >> yes and in ukraine, they can normally anything, including a human tragedy. >> speak about this war m terms of what you saw with drones. >> a.i. has not arrived there but drones have. the drone strategies -- he has proposed an army of drones, to try to use drones to dislodge the hundred-year-old technology used today there's evidence that these spv drones are essential because they're so inexpensive and so dangerous to the other side. >> and these are kamikaze drones >> yes, they are single shot, if you will >> so the drone is finished with -- >> the components typically come

from china and other countries and they're used by skilled operators to move faster than you can see them >> how much do they cost >> $500, $1,000. the mq-9 drones, the ones we've used for years which are very important to us are millions in costs. >> can we do the same thing? you've been talking about trying to revolutionize the technology behind our own defense department >> i've been looking at a document called offset x think of thooes as swarmable systems that help us and keep our country safe militaries are slow to adopt for many, many reasons we're going to see if this approach works and helps in ukraine or not >> when you think about what we saw over the weekend, how do you think it changes the relationship between russia and china and frankly our relationship >> i'm not an expert in that and

i haven't talked to them at the moment china seems to be supplying both sides >> and you don't think that's going to change. >> it's hard to know >> let's talk a.i. we're all consumed by chat gpt and where are we really? we keep hearing there will be another step change this fall. >> so the industry is organized now with this incredible competition, which benefits all of us. gpt4 has set a new standard. i'm aware of two more companies that have announced they have even better, the most incredible products you're ever going to see in the next six months and after that there are startups that even have better things coming. we're just at the beginning of this enormous wave of capability coming after that, the industry believes there's another step change, which vfs planning the at to say how do i solve

this problem >> who are the two companies >> opening a.i. and partnership with microsoft and google and google i.o. talked about a new product they hinted at called jim gemini, which they say is better in every regard. and there's a startup called enthropic. >> and where is inflexion? >> inflexion is another one coming they just released an app called pi it's trained to be incredibly empathetic >> it's so impressive in many ways and happily for those of us in the writing business and other things say it still not there. does it ever really get there and what does there mean eventually >> it will eventually. i used to think 20 years but now i think it's five to ten

there's more money these systems, by the way, one of these new systems wills could next year a billion dollars to train. these are enormously expensive it's the genius of the financial system that we can raise that kind of money show how the revenue works, and yet there's such optimism that these systems will be transformative for education, for drug discovery, for science, et cetera >> if you're a betting man, and we have a lot of people trying to bet on this, do you bet on the incumbents do you bet on your former company, google? do you bet on microsoft with their partnership with openai, or do you say this opens up the whole playing field? >> i always bet for google, come on but the fact of the matter is, it's a green field the start-ups can now get the talent that they need and the capital they need at a level that i have never seen before, so i think we're in for the most exciting race we're ever going to see, much, much tougher and

more interesting than we saw in pc versus mac and various internet challenges. >> where do you put apple? and where do you put meta in all of this? >> so, apple is the obvious great user of this technology, and should use one of the systems that i described or one of the open source >> right >> meta released a technology called llama that was then subsequently leaked to everyone. meta has announced they're considering doing a similar licensed version at a similar point. at the moment, meta is not building the high-end. it's building what i would call the middle-end ones. >> what do you think of the idea of this being open sourced versus this being a closed box there's also a debate -- this is something that meta's talked about, opening up what they're doing to the public. mark zuckerberg's talked about this idea that everyone should be able to inspect the code and understand it while these other services may be a black box. >> so, we have always had a tension in our industry between centralized and decentralized and open source and closed source i think the frontier models, these really expensive ones, are

not going to be released to the public you're going to use an api there's too much money in them we'll see what they do on open source, there are now start-ups that are going to build open source models that are competitive with the llama product from facebook. these are order a hundred billion parameter models, and then their business model is to also release the open source model and then work with a company for their proprietary data and get a lot of money for that ic i think that one's going to work >> barry diller, as you may know, is working with a number of media companies, including "the new york times," "wall street journal" and others, potentially to see both google and microsoft openai together over the idea that a lot of this content that's going to power these things is really theirs. how do you think about that? >> a really good example here is reddit a lot of the training that goes on in these systems comes from

the public web, and there's a tremendous amount of information inside of reddit that is going into these models. if you ask the model where it got this fact or this idea, it cannot, today, tell you, so today, the copyright question is not technically solvable you could essentially eliminate any copyrighted information, in which case, how would you search the web? how would you do reddit? somebody quotes somebody and so forth. we don't, today, know how to solve that problem >> and so what happens to the economics of all of that how is that being thought about, do you think or it isn't? >> in the first place, people are definitely thinking it typically, when these technologies come out, the incumbents are always terrified that it's going to screw up their model and they miss the fact that these technologies create a whole new model it's not that people are going to consume less information. they're just going to consume it differently. search will be affected because these systems will be smarter. does it make google stronger or weaker google has announced its answer to that. the important thing is that this

new technology is arriving >> you were super optimistic about this, but there is a level of concern you have, like a big level of concern so, what is the immediate risk in front of us >> the biggest concern that everyone in the industry has is that these huge models essentially have polymathic capabilities in places that are dangerous like synthetic biology or cyber or so forth that without the appropriate guardrails, technically called a.i. safety, if those are not in place, they can be misused if you look at gpt 4, for example, they did a really good job of putting guardrails around the system the raw model is much more powerful than the one you're playing with >> but when people say that a.i. is going to take over humanity, it's going to -- >> they've watched too many movies >> what is that, though? >> that's a movie. >> what is the thinking that gets you there what would have to happen? >> here's the assumption this is all speculation. first, you have to have memory, planning, and stop hallucinating. you have to be current under that scenario, you get --

and you say to the system, learn everything, and it learns everything and then eventually it learns that you're less important than it, and it takes electricity away from you because it needs electricity that's the movie the real scenario goes something like this. at some point, these things will have human-like capabilities they don't today and at some point -- now, this is years away -- they'll be able to communicate with each other that's called super intelligence >> when you think about, though, the immediate -- immediate security risks, i mean, one of the things that is already starting to happen is a.i. is effectively building its own viruses and doing its own attacking. >> it's not correct that it's doing it itself. >> humans are telling it to do that >> that's important. i can't make the decision itself the short-term danger is misinformation for example, the 2024 elections are going to be a mess, because social media is not protecting us from false generative a.i they're working on it, but they haven't solved it yet, and in

fact, the trust and safety groups are getting made smaller, not larger this is a big issue. >> how do you think we should deal with misinformation i would also say, i don't know, very recently, google, which owns youtube, made the decision -- it used to be that on youtube, for example, if there was election denial, frankly, that was something that wouldn't even appear on youtube. they've undone that. >> so, i'm strongly in favor of human speech, not computer speech >> okay. >> so, free speech for humans, not computers. so, what social media should do is mark all the content, know who the users are, and hold people accountable if they violate the law. that step alone would cut down the worst. it doesn't solve the problem of you and i disagree on facts, but at least it establishes a basis that these are humans who are making these claims. >> apple put out its vision pro. >> yes >> what do you think >> looks like a fantastic product. >> do you think it's going to be a huge winner? >> the problem with all of these goggle situations is i actually like to see the world around me.

we haven't quite figured that out. >> you were there at the beginning with google glass. >> at the moment, these are gaming solutions, and they're fantastic. i don't think they've quite figured out how to live in the world with the goggles and the real world around us they're working on it. >> and then finally, cage match with zuck and musk who are you betting on >> in that cage match -- >> what do you think is going on by the way, how does this even happen you come from the valley why is that happening? >> in that match, i want to be the ref. >> and you cannot explain what's going on >> i think that people have gotten a little ahead of themselves >> eric schmidt, thank you very much >> thank you very much >> great to see you as always, educating us on so many different issues mike and joe, back to you guys >> andrew, thank you very much all right, let's check out tesla this morning looks like it could be a mover today. the electric vehicle maker is trading just modestly lower, i believe, in the premarket here yeah, you see it down about 1.5% analysts at goldman-sachs are

the latest to downgrade the shares to neutral in this case from buy they're citing the same thing other analysts have, which is the big run-up in the stock already this year and a more difficult pricing environment for new cars you see there, joe, it's doubled on a year-to-date basis. at one point in early january, it traded around $101. blasted up through the goldman-sachs $185 price target most recently about a month ago. >> that was when people said no one would ever buy a tesla again because they were mad at elon for all the mean stuff on twitter. >> that's part of it it was part of it. and obviously, chinese competition was pretty heavy >> he did find -- >> i will say, we're back above $800 billion market cap. >> he's not broke, i don't think. tesla's doing fine twitter is better than it ever was. >> maybe not financially >> not financially >> we'll see what happens. >> but in terms of, at least, being able to, you know, speak from both sides. >> subjective call a group of investors, meantime, led by apollo global management

is making a debt investment between 1 to $2 billion in the chip maker wolfspeed to support its expapnsion in the u.s $1.25 billion in cash will be available immediately with an accordion feature for $750 million to be drawn later last year, wolfspeed announced plans to build a multibillion dollar factory in north carolina to make chips that power electric vehicles, among other things, and as leslie picker was saying, a private credit solution here instead of banks for wolfspeed. >> let's get a final check on the markets before we go after what wasn't a great week last week, this is -- quarter's going to be over, which means the first half of the year is going to be over, so it's kind of an interesting week, an important week, but not a whole lot of -- to speak about in terms of the major averages. little bit of red down 34 points or so. nasdaq down 6 and the s&p off about 4, but still above the

high end of what used to be the range that we were in. we've got the ten-year at 3.68% this morning, two-year, 4.7%, and bitcoin continues to trade above $30,000. had a little delayed response to those blue chip companies getting involved, but it did moved all the way up above $31,000. stay above $30,000 some trip out there, sorkin. beautiful. you're a lucky man >> beautiful i'll see you tomorrow. >> see you tomorrow. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange cramer has the morning off futures, modestly softer here after the revolt in russia over the weekend. lot of questions and debate about the impact on stocks and commodities. busy week for data s&p coming off the first weekly lo