the economy handle it. the jobs market may be rolling but some of these ism numbers are showing some weakness, too. the man behind ibm's deal today as it looks to bolster it's cloud offering. biggest deal since the red acquisition. josh weinstein, smaller than expected loss, revenue beat but some guidance for the coming quarter has shares under pressure it's down but a huge winner so far this year, as we j. >> one of the best performing consumer discretionary stocks. the dow started off higher we've given it back. the s&p unchanged right now. you do have strength in energy, consumer discretionary materials, even technology is working, that's why the nasdaq is holding onto some small gains. we've seen weakness in defensive stocks like staples, health care, and financials going red, carl, of course, after we had last week's loss of more than 1%

in the s&p and still a tremendous runup in the last week of the quarter for year-to-date gain of, you know, more than 13% on stocks. we're wondering what comes next. for me topping the tape is this buzz about central bankers there's going to be a big meeting in the jackson hole for the ecb where i'm going to be doing this panel with all the top central bankers. fed chair jay powell, head of the ecb, head of the bank of england, head of the bank of japan. they set the tone. the market is anticipating they're slowing down and stopping, while they're saying they're still raising rates and dealing with inflation it's this interesting dynamic when it comes to the second half. >> wouldn't you argue lagarde has tried to break that pattern in the last month or two saying, we don't - >> straight up, we're hiking. >> we don't need to rhyme exactly with what others are doing. >> except the market is looking ahead to the fact they're closer to the end than the beginning of the hiking and the fact that we're starting to see weakness in the economies. germany overnight showing business confidence fell more than expected, adding to signs of the recession there

that's something the market is focusing on right now. we're seeing this rally, for instance, in bonds, leading one to wonder how much more can central banks really do. they don't want to totally tank their economies. it's a tricky balance. always has been. >> the president here this week in chicago giving a speech on what they're now, i guess, embracing as bidennomics when it comes to unemployment, when it comes to inflation, you can argue we've run circles around some other advanced economies. >> absolutely. and we've not gone into recession, when we've wondered if the recession is coming every six months, since the fed started hiking in march. they're still dispersing a lot of money, which is partly why we haven't gone into recession. today the $40 billion going towards broadband. they're going to lay out how they will disperse that to the states next week's expectation for jobs is 200,000 added we're starting to see some weakness, elevated claims for unemployment, but so far it has

been a good story to tell for the biden administration it's made the job harder for powell when it comes to the inflation fight. when it comes to rates, it's led to a downturn, as we've been covering in m&a, as capital is harder to come by. according to mckenzie, the value of companies doing deals in the first quarter fell 49% within the tech sector, the biggest contributor, with 21% with the value of deals. today ibm adding to those numbers, $4.6 billion deal announced, the third largest deal in the company's history. with us to lead the hour on the deal of the day, the man behind the deal, ibm chief commercial officer and senior vice president rob thomas ibm's first broadcast interview since announcing that deal. why now are you buying apptio? >> we're opt opportunistic looking for things in the market technology is more important than ever to every company

as i talk to ceos, cios, cfos, they think how do i manage complexity of technology and my spend? apptio is a virtual command center you can look at all of your technology spend, your cloud spend, even your labor spend this notion of total cost of ownership, you can now do that with software. i think this is a perfect time to do something like this. >> how does it fit in with where ibm is going and your portfolio of services? >> think about as we transformed to ibm, we said hybrid cloud, ai, that's the focus we want to do more in recurring revenue businesses, software businesses this fits right into our strategy around automation, which is companies are trying to automate business processes, automate their i.t if we can bring something like apptio that allows them to automate their financials, how they're looking at their spend, how they're reducing complexity, we think this can be a game-changer for clients. >> does it drive sales of redhat

as well? >> yes every client thinking about redhat, what are my options? i want to run on hybrid cloud. what's the most economical place to deploy some technology. this will help them make some decisions. we think this will be a catalyst not only for redhat but the acquisition we did with turbonomiic. it's from insights to optimization >> curious how you feel about pricing right now. i think this is -- was this seven deals so far this year >> yes, correct. this is number seven >> are you seeing bargains is this reflective of the overall environment right now in software >> we have to always be on the l lookout for what is the right time to buy something? we partnered with them and this is the right time. if you look at what we've done year-to-date, it's smaller deals. we found valuations that are attractive, that meet our financial model, but we always have our eyes open as we keep going. hard to predict where the market goes but we're looking for things that align to our strategy around software and

consulting >> you say in the press release that apptio is profitable. can you expand on that any sort of -- can you cite any growth rates for us, on just how that business looks? >> founded in 2007 they've been at it for a while and it's healthy growth rate it is profitable recurring revenue, this is what we really like in businesses like this. here's an interesting data point. they have collected in terms of data $450 billion worth of i.t. spend. we can go to any client and say, we know how i.t. dollars are being spent. we can help benchmark where you sit. and that's a game-changer that apptio brought to this that was not available until they created this data set. >> i wonder if that gives you any intelligence on the notion or theory being posited that the ai crush is going to crowd out sort of legacy spend right now, at least in hyperscale >> it's hard to predict exactly how this happens, but as we talked about our own story in ibm, how we automated a lot of

our business processes, i think every company's going to start to do that things like generative ai can change how you're executing certainly repetitive tasks with apptio, we can bring the same thing to technology, the infrastructure and clients want a way to make sure they're optimizing for price and performance. that's something we can do together. >> you know all the investors want to know is how does it fit in with generative ai and what you're offering there. >> we announced watsonx in may, coming available the first week of july. we're excited about that and watsonx has capability around building models, foundation models. there's a component around data. think about what you could do when you have more data that changes the kind of models you can build. these are some of the ideas we have we're still at this point we just announced the intent to acquire. so a lot of work to do you can see how this feeds in with watsonx. >> isn't the whole thing about

max -- getting spend more efficient, right so, if it presents a conflict at all, if appto recommends customer cutout portion of tech spend, something that ibm offers. >> that's true we found when we'reworking wit a client side by side, sometimes we give them advice that maybe reduce something they're doing with us, potentially, but in the long run, if we're being a good adviser to them, there will be plenty in it for us. we don't worry too much about that. >> finally you see some synergies here as well can you elaborate on that? >> there's a few obviously, ibm's global distribution can have a big impact here. think about partner ecosystem, what we can bring to that. the software synergy with red hat, apptio has great relationships with deloit, and ibm consulting who can help clients understand their spend, what they're doing with their technology all of this represents different capabilities for synergy as part of this.

>> how is appetite for spend on consulting and just in general >> we just had acceccenture on t week >> she said demand is strong but there are some delays, for instance, in projects, especially -- and shrinking of the size of projects >> yeah, we keep an eye on it. we talked about it back on the call in april how consulting was slowing down a little bit in north america. we continue to keep an eye on this what hasn't changed is there's a huge desire on technology. clients are still investing anywhere technology can make a difference for their business, whether it's ai, moving to hybrid cloud or multicloud investments are still occurring there. >> would you argue we're in the very early days of the fallout as it pertains to head count >> that is hard to predict other than i would say there's low-hanging fruit on repetitive tasks in a company, which can be automated. what i've seen in many of those examples, some of the ones we've done around automating customer service as an example, clients tend to take those same people that were disrupted by that and

move them into different positions, which can actually increase their customer stat if they -- we don't need you to do the repetitive task but we can move you to the higher value task that's what i see playing out so far. >> rob, it was great to have you on the deal today. appreciate it. rob thomas, ibm's chief commercial officer. still to come, what rising geopolitical tensions in russia might mean for the market. we talk to the new school of professional affairs, the first secretary of the communist party, the soviet union, joining us live from moscow. and dallas fed president robert kaplan joins us we'll discuss when "squawk on the street" comerit ck e w wn0 points

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trading. quick check on the major averages as we go low. the dow down 37 points or so the nasdaq joining the dow and the s&p in the red technology as a sector, information technology s still higher consumer discretionary dipping into the red energy remains high, up 1.3% oil prices a little higher after the events in russia want to take a look at the kre regional bank index. we've been watching this closely, on pace for the first positive day in six and the best day since early june, in fact. it's up 2% if the kre does finish june in

the green, it would be the first positive month since january of course, we know what happened in march when we saw the bank failures pacwest and metropolitan, a few of the names making the move pacwest, aries is helping the news and we'll get the big bank stress test on wednesday, carl, so that will be a sign of how the financial system in general is faring. we're keeping an eye on pfizer dropping the development of an obesity and diabetes drug to focus on other treatments. eli lilly was higher, has given up some gains as well. that's been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the sales and craze boom around obesity drugs. shares of carnival moving lower despite a beat on bookings in the second quarter. it's hitting an all-tie high what is wall street worried about? we'll talk to the ceo next. today goldman goes neutral

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i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

the fight to rein in inflation is on. more than two-thirds of analysts expect the fed to raise rates by 25 basis points next month that follows, of course, the bank of england's surprise hike to 5 last thursday the world's central bankers are set to take the stage in portugal with sara joining us, former dallas fed chair robert kaplan. great to have you. we've been talking about the effect some of the central banks are working with right now and what implications that has, i guess, first for the fed. >> the biggest issue the fed's dealing with is goods are weak but services are still strong. and i think one of the reasons that services are still strong is the fiscal spending in this country probably hasn't been

recognized for as strong as it is remnants of the inflation reduction money, infrastructure act money, and so you're seeing a number of new projects all over the country in size that are actually increasing demand for goods, services and workers. and i think as long as you have that, i think you have a lot of cross-currents the fed has to try to deal with >> yeah, one of the reasons i wanted to talk to you is i've been hitting this point since speaking with you about it, president kaplan, since you have highlighted. now i google every day just arpa funds or infrastructure funds. it's amazing how much activity there really is going on around the country at the local level and just how much money is coming in. when does that run out is there any work and analysis on just how long that can last and do you think that prooents us from ever going into recession in this cycle? >> the arpa money has to be in the lingo, obligated by '24,

spent by '25 and the size of that original grant to the cities and states was something like$350 billion some of it has been spent but there's not great transparency on what hasn't but i tell you, my travels across the country, a chunk of it hasn't. the inflation reduction act money will go on for seven or eight years. these are sizeable programs and they're like the programs you would do if you were trying to come out of a recession, not pre-recession. and so, this is a challenge. and it's unusual, i don't remember a situation like this >> yeah, just to be clear, arpa is the american rescue plan act. that was the trillions of dollars in funding passed by the biden administration so, what does the fed do, just keep hiking even more than

potentially two they penciled in >> there's a reason there's a debate at the fed and i think there ought to be a debate on the positive -- on the side for pausing, as they said, goods are weak every fed funds rate squeezes small banks and squeezes small business that are very sensitive to it. on the other hand, you've got this government money, and my guess is they'll use and they should use, i would use every bit of the next month to see how these crosscurrents settle out, but i think people should be prepared the fed may need to ultimately raise rates at least once or twice more because i think the economy is not slowing as much as people might think. particular is going to be more resilient, i think, because of this government spending >> so, how much -- what needs to break in order for that final services leg to give in, do you think? >> you need to cool demand for

workers. and these government projects, you know, when a state announces a $4 billion manufacturing plant, i think that's a good project in the long run for the country. but a typical $4 billion manufacturing plant will require 15,000 construction workers and another 5,000 plant workers in a state that might already have a very low unemployment rate we've got fiscal policy is blunting, to some extent, monetary policy. i would prefer to see a more coordinated approach by the government that might extend the time frame on some of these programs, particularly while we're in the middle of the inflation fight. i think this inflation's going to be stickier, and i think sector spending is very sensitive to the fed funds rate. this government money is not

sensitive to it at all it goes forward whatever the fed funds rate is and that's why this is an unusual situation. >> you're absolutely right barrons with a great piece over the weekend talking about how much activity is going on because of federal spending, it boggles the mind they talked to some purchasing managers i wonder if you think some of the commentary in, say, the dallas fed survey has been a little too negative, though? they have been critical about some areas where there's not as much activity. >> well, again, the good sector -- manufacturing is showing real slowing, but the service sector, i think, even in the fed surveys doesn't show much weakness. and the issue is there are 50 million workers in this country that make $50,000 a year or less they tend to work in the service sector, and every one of these new government projects doesn't -- may not on the margin take unemployed workers. it's more likely to get people to switch jobs from a current

service sector job they're in. this challenge is not one of too many unemployed. this is -- this problem is a challenge, we don't have enough workers and unemployed people are looking to get higher wages to make ends meet, and there's plenty of bids away if they're so inclined. >> that's why claims are so important right now. duration of unemployment, all those things going to be a fascinating second half president kaplan, thank you so much good to see you. robert kaplan. >> good to talk with you. let's get a news update with the very busy seema mody. >> carl, the suspect in a deadly mass shooting at a colorado nightclub pleading guilty today in a 2022 rampage. anderson lee aldridge entering a guilty plea to five counts of first-degree murder and 26 counts of attempted murder five people died in colorado springs and 19 more were hurt. there are new developments today about the dna found at the home where four idaho college students were murdered last

fall the legal team for suspect brya kohberer claims two unknown dna were found and on a glove outside of the house officials claim dna on a knife sheath is a statistical match to kohberer. demanded for power is expected to break a record as homes try to stay cool during a heat waves parts of the state are experiencing temperatures above 100 degrees. the state's grid takes on 90% of the state's power needs has issued a weather watch until june 30th. after the break, a weekend of mayhem has left watchers of moscow's full scale invasion of ukraine has people asking, what's next? as always, we say this month, june is pride month and cnbc is celebrating all month long in sharing stories of

corporate leaders with you, like this one >> i truly believe corporate america can play a great role in advancing diversity, equity and inclusion. there's so much you can do as a company to create an inclusive environment so individuals from the lgbtq community can be their authentic self i was always looking for mentors to get encouragement of being your authentic self at work and the power you have to drive better innovation, drive better outcomes, better problem solvers.

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putin releasing his first statement today without mentioning the march towards moscow this saturday, leaving speculation it was recorded maybe before the weekend the deal announced by the kremlin sends yevgeny prigozhin to belarus putin's power and the future of the war in ukraine joining us live from moscow is the professor of international affairs, nina khrushcheva. thank you for the time now we have this new audio message from prigozhin basically suggesting it was more a protest about tactical military strategies how much do we really know, even

now? >> well, we actually don't know that much. we know they keep issuing statements and prigozhin did change his tune i mean, he was on saturday after putin's address, that it's mutiny, it's treason and everybody will be punished, prigozhin sort of got also angry and said, wow, this the corruption goes all the way up and we need to cleanse it. but then very quickly already on saturday changed his tune and said, well, that's actually not a mutiny but it's just a march for justice. so we want more just system and better fighting conditions and whatnot. he didn't quite change his tune but it seems both sides decided that it's easier to part as known motorial enemies because there is a war in ukraine and the future is unknown and unclear. we heard it from people on saturday, sort of the elites, the political figures on

saturday, supporting putin, the constitutional order saying this kind of disagreement in open space only work for the enemy as they kept saying so, it seems to me that for now they just decided that the fighting the war is more important than the inside struggle of course, we cannot separate the war from the inside struggle since prigozhin until the war was military chief or pr chief or propaganda chief, but he really was an important political figure in the war and his wagner group fighting in moscow was more successful in fighting than the official troops of the ministry of defense. that made him a political figure so, basically, it left putin himself open. >> there's one view among market observers here in the u.s. that

it was the closest you could have gotten over the weekend to a best case scenario, meaning there was no blood shed, there was no serious turmoil, and yet putin arguably was wounded i wonder if you think that view is legitimate, dangerous >> no, i think it's very legitimate i mean, it was the best it could have been resolved, i think. from what we know now. and it's interesting because i'm in moscow. i was walking around moscow saturday so people had, depending on the time of the day, people had different sort of -- they worried less but nobody really worried that much. i know they were in other parts, even on the outskirts of moscow. now, the city where prigozhin troops were marching were more military preparation but in moscow, the red square was closed, yes, but really the military wasn't that obvious and that seen. so, it wasn't really a big surprise it got resolved peacefully putin was wounded not even so

much, from my point of view, of course, the fact it all happened is already great problem for putin all together but it was resolved. so, he could have actually had a pr coup for himself. at night when it was all resolved, instead of just alexander lukashenko, the bell r bel belarusan president who brokered the deal, putin could have said something about it he didn't. he did speak to -- there was some statement put out talking to some young people but nothing about the mutiny, which was an important part of russian -- >> right >> and i think the fact that we haven't heard from him is actually something that wounded him more than even the coup itself. >> but just the idea, nina, that he was threatened -- his power was threatened in a way it

hasn't been for years. the air of invincibility was broken that's the way the western media perceived it is that the way it's perceived inside russia? >> the air of invincibility, the coup happened, but the coup was resolved once again, as i said, putin could have had a great moment if he actually came out and spoke about it for example, his statement on saturday towards prigozhin was very hurt because prigozhin is his creation and they've known each other for many, many years. prigozhin is because putin allowed him to be what he is so putin called him a traitor, a stab in the back and whatnot so then suddenly prigozhin -- prigozhin negotiated and there will be no charges how could you have no charges at all if there is a mutiny, or if you have no charges, at least

explain what you mean by this? so, that's something that actually shows not only that the coup happened, even if it is positively resolved towards -- for putin because it showed -- because i think prigozhin thought the elites were very disillusioned and putin would turn to his side but putin's brand of this insidious god-driven nationalism is still for many, still a better version of nationalism, bloody cleansing, killing everybody who is not agreeing with you, prigozhin's type of nationalism. so prigozhin didn't get what he wanted and had to retreat. but putin also didn't get what he wanted because prigozhin did happen and even if it is resolved, putin really still -- we don't know there are rumors now in the last few years swirling around moscow, is putin dead? he's silent. where is he? what's going on? we're hearing from the prime minister, we're not hearing from

the president against whom allegedly the coup was happening altogether so, yes, it does damage the reputation but at the same time, i think putin reputation is so damaged by now that i don't know how much this can done in at least in the short run >> right it's obviously something the markets pinned on importantly and we'll see leading up to the nato summit what this all means. your perspective is so valuable, nina thank you so much. neen that khrushcheva joining us. carnival falling on heels of results as guidance was a bit mixed. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time,

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welcome back shares of carnival sinking today despite beating estimates for the second quarter in a row with total bookings reaching a new all-time high for future sailings stock's down 11.6% losses cutting into what's been a great year for the stock, up 70%, roughly, year-to-date joining us first on cnbc is carnival ceo josh weinstein. good to have you back on welcome. >> good to be here, sara >> how are your investor conversations going? i thought what you put out was pretty good news when it comes to the results of this quarter and what you're seeing in the future for demand. >> yeah, no, i agree, it's all good news. we smashed the results in the second quarter we just got through our second quarter booking period, which was an all-time record

and the interesting thing about that is normally our all-time records in bookings happen in the first quarter. that's a traditional strong point. and the fact is, you know, we started our peak booking period in the fourth quarter with a knockout black friday and it has not stopped. and it accelerated over the second quarter i'm pleased to say over the last three weeks, it's still hasn't stopped. i think it's all good news. >> i think one question investors has, is this as good as it gets you're finally getting the pent-up demand for people who delayed their cruises and travel and we're starting to see a turn in the economy overall >> no, i think the sky is the limit for this corporation and our portfolio of world class brands, actually all we see is acceleration and that goes not just to north america but our european brands, which are really starting to take strength. as a matter of fact, you know, in the second quarter, the bookings that were taken by our european brands were up double

digits in both price and volume versus 2019 for the rest of this year so, the trajectory is really going one way. >> i was going to ask about pricing overall and just what you're seeing as the strength of demand, how high are prices relative to where they were in 2019 and how much room run do you have there >> yeah, no, actually we just finished up our quarter 7.5 higher per diem off the back of the first quarter where it was also 7.5 points higher than 2019 so, from a pricing standpoint, we're making good inroads. we've got good demand for our brands but there's obviously always room for improvement. that's actually an opportunity we're looking forward to taking. >> is there room for brand consolidation? i just wonder demographically -- we have a conversation about the nest egg boomers have

collectively or if you'll prepare the brand for the decades ahead? >> i think the answer is, yes, actually, because of our portfolio strategy, we have brands that are dedicated to a younger family demographic we've also got brands like holland america, which is actually looking for what we would call sober explorers, people who are actively looking for an mazing holiday but they're not necessarily to be on the 5,000-person ship with a water slide. they're looking for a smaller ship or intimate, catered to them that's why we're so excited. our portfolio can achieve a lot in different segments of the markets. >> i prefer water slide. so, on a guidance, clearly you took it up because of what you're seeing on q3, the full year, but you're still expecting a loss, a better loss than earlier of 27 cents. now 8 to 20-cent loss. when are you going to get this company profitable, josh >> well, it does start in the third quarter and we'll be

profitable i'll give you a good trajectory story about that profitability so, in the first quarter of this year when you think about our ebitda on a unit basis we were 59% of the way back versus 2019 when you hold fuel and currency constant went to 73% in the second quarter. it's going to be about 85% in the third quarter and back to 100% in the fourth quarter so, we're making the right moves and it's starting to show up in the results. we were able to take $275 million to the bottom line in our forecast between march guidance and june guidance >> what's happening on the cost side you obviously have fuel expense, net interest expense, labor, are all those moving in the right direction for you? >> well, you know, we're getting there. we're definitely getting there you know, the team has done a very good job of marn takening our industry-leading cost space and i expect that to continue

for the foreseeable future we no doubt suffered from inflation like the rest of the world, particularly when we talk about our comparisons, it's four years worth because we compare that to 2019 but the team's doing a good job. you know, on the labor cost side, as an example, you know, despite all of the pressure that we are seeing, our crew costs are up less than 2% on a unit basis from this year going all the way back to 2019 so, the team's doing a remarkably good job of managing along the way. always room for improvement, but pretty good. >> finally, seema covers the space, raised the issue of competition earlier. and i wonder what you think of some of the new entrants and the fact that you yourself have so many brands, nine brands, and there are obviously competitors you've dealt with for a long time and whether that is cutting into the business at all >> no, i don't see it at all, actually you know, the fact is when folks from different segments of the travel industry want to get into

cruising, that is fantastic. it's a stamp of approval for cruising, which is a remarkable holiday experience and the fact is, cruising is still -- about 3% of the overall vacation spend in the globe is with cruise. so, there is a big market of which cruise is a very, very small piece. we welcome anyone who wants to try to stack up against us and we feel good about our next few years. >> why is the stock down 11% what are you hearing from investors? just because it had a strong run up >> i think when you head into earnings up 100% versus the start of the year, you know, people are feeling like they want to take some of that big profit off the table, our focus is on continuing to improve the business, continuing to make good inroads and to step changes and our operating income and net income and we'll continue to do that. >> well, it has recovered a little bit on some of your comments about, gained back half a percent. thank you for taking the time,

josh >> appreciate it. >> josh weinstein, ceo of carnival. still to come this morning, is big tech due for a pullback strategist point to a few key signs that suggest that coulbed the case we'll tell you what those are in just a minute.

we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family.

what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. analysts have been raising concerns about the increased concentration in mega cap tech for a while now with a little impact on those names, is now a time for the pullbk? that's the focus of today's

"techcheck" with - >> just walking by. >> just to cesaire ra, my old friend, carl you know what's important? people are trying to get their hands around a $3 trillion market cap for apple and they're using all sorts of interesting examples but the immediate cause of what's happening today is a littleexamples, and what is happening today is instability in tech after last week when we saw big declines in semiconductor names, and intel was down, and amd, and the big cap tech was in focus. sky high valuations and prices and the higher rates really putting pressure on tech last week take a look here chris harvey over at wells fargo struggling to convey what is $3 trillion it's the gdp of france, and that's an interesting way to convey this. it's a way of explaining how big the companies have come.

how about microsoft is bigger than italy, the gdp of italy alphabet is as big as mexico, 1.7 trillion versus $1.6 billion. and i think the key point here is none of this is having any impact on the bulls that are out there, and their argument is simple, forget about these numbers, they will get bigger because a.i. is the secret sauce, and they may be true on that but it does matter valuations do matter and nobody is saying this is apples to apples, and people were saying it's not fair to do the comparison, but how do you convey what $3 trillion is how big that is? years ago, $3 trillion was a

stack of bills so many miles high, something silly like that. people say i didn't think about that >> didn't think about that in the size and scope what are the valuations? how expensive are they >> 25, 35. amazon has been trading at ridiculous multiples for a long time and it has not dropped that much the market is placing extremely high market valuations, and they believe the multiple is justified. and so far dan weiss has been right on the idea. >> thank you you can exit the shot now. >> oh, i am supposed to leave. after the break, why outdated climate change models could be putting the budget at

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welcome back a new report saying billions of dollars in federal infrastructure spending could be at risk due to outdated rainfall data what is happening here, diana? >> sarah a climate risk firm is showing infrastructure projects are not accounting now to much heavier rainfall due to global warming. >> all that money going into the infrastructure is being built to the wrong flood standard, meaning the roads and bridges will flood and it's a waste of money when it's a one in a generational spend we will use right now. >> currently the government source from the precipitation data is from national oceanic

and atmospheric administration, or noaa. >> it's the infrastructure all over the country >> but it has a major flaw >> it does not include any climate change information and that's why we are looking to modernize it with noaa atlas 15. >> but the updated model won't be done in 2026, after many of the infrastructure projects won't be done, for example -- >> where i am standing right now, the believed 1 in 10 year event is a 1 in 4 year event and over the next 30 years will go all the way down to a 1 in 2 year event, meaning every other year we expect extreme precipitation to flood the

areas. >> when the atmosphere is warming it holds more water. >> if you were building a road right now and you had to make sure it was not going to flood, would you want to use atlas 14 >> i can't speak to how the decisions are made >> the department of transportation confirmed they reviewed updated data as well, and that data, according to first street, uses the same historical method as atlas 14 that is not factoring in the future affects of climate change >> haven't private insurers figured that out >> no, and that could have implications for homeowners

insurance that might not know they have this type of risk of flooding and therefore don't get flood insurance. >> thank you interesting investigation there. heading out to portugal for the panel i am moderating on wednesday around this time, 9:30 eastern time with the head of the fed and the bank of england and the bank of japan, to talk about what they are seeing in their economies, and i think the russia risk adds another layer to it, of course, and geopolitical risks are the political out look and where they are in terms of hiking rates? >> do you feel like bailey is the most under the gun >> perhaps because he was the biggest surprise last week, and i think powell is under the gun, too, because he's still trying to explain the awkwardness of why they paused when they expect to keep raising rates if they are not satisfied with inflation, and then then the

currency is weakening to extreme levels, so all of them to some extent have to answer. >> it will be huge we all can't wait to watch you are right, russia just added another layer on top of the discussion that you are going to have >> geopolitical risks front and center, in china as well >> safe travels. welcome to the "halftime report." i am scott wapner. can tech keep up the momentum? joining me, anastasia, joe tear nova, saw rot and steve weiss. nasdaq is under pressure, and s&p is, too. dow is a marginal winner at this hour we are on recession watch, i