live in connecticut and you used to be there. new haven-style pizza is all about wood, coal-fired stuff, and i enjoy it >> if they're coming to new york they're coming to connecticut next and then new jersey has california done this yet >> anyway. scandalous >> thanks for watching "power lunch ". "closing bell" starts right now. i'm scott wapner this make or break hour begins with the road to tech and its mgive in sent run is acting tired lately and raising questions now about whether it is bad, and dan ives along if just a moment. in the meantime, here's a scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. nasdaq, our focus today is names like nvidia, tesla and meta. dragged that index lower and there you see the losses there the nasdaq's eight-week winning streak coming to a close last

week chevron, nike and home depot ending its three-week run, as well and the dow is showing modest gains at this moment. it takes us to our talk of the tape will the second half bring second thoughts about the techtrade? it has been the runaway winner in the first three months of 2023 >> good to be here >> 12 to 15% more in the second half >> we believe this is the start of a new bull market for tech and ultimately it will be broader and it's not just that call it seven or eight big tech stock. weekly fundamentals are not just stabilizing, but actually starting to see for the first time upticks across cloud, across enterprise, and then, of course, you have these ai gold rush which i view as a fourth industrial revolution. >> would you -- would you be willing to admit that the gains we've seen from the beginning of the year until now were multiple expansion and based on

fundamentals >> the first half is expansion and the second half will be fundamentals this is where a lot of these companies, they ripped the band-aid off and we're seeing really across the board especially over the next four to six weeks a much more dramatically different i.t. spending environment than we saw going back to february, march and even april. >> when you say rip the band-aid off, you are talking about the companies that were at the forefront of becoming leaner and in some cases meaner and they went through these rounds of layoffs first and they're emerging on the other side first. is that what you're alluding to? >> yeah. 6% to 10% cuts and in some cases even more and now you're starting to see -- you will see those margins, i think, creep higher and higher as we go in the second half and if you look at software and chips in terms of what's happened in inventory and i can tell you, traveling the globe over the last month, what we've seen across enterprise is something that i think will bring more fuel in the rally across the board as we

go into this july and 2q earnings >> even those who were bullish on tech look at the way that multiples have expanded and it makes them a little queasy i want to show you how the forward p-es have gone for these stocks, okay apple, the stock you love more than any other from 20 to 30 times forward from the beginning of the year until now, okay? microsoft from 23 to 33. alphabet, 17 to 23 nvidia, 34 to 56 amazon 46 to 89. those all make sense to you? >> in my opinion -- >> i didn't even get to tesla, by the way, which we'll get to later on in the program. >> sure. i think this is a 1995 moment. not 1999 bubble. i believe this is, in terms of a revolution and we're seeing similar in terms of the internet and this is something that will transform tech and in terms of the multiples and in terms of what's not being factored in, this is potentially a trillion

dollars of incremental i.t. spend that basically was not here six months ago and that's why when you're seeing is n nadella and it's the second, third, fourth derivative plays >> can it be both? can it be 95 and still a bubble in this stage? it doesn't have to be the be all end all bubble like we saw in 2000, but what if we agree this is the early to nascent stages of the a.i. gold rush as you put it, but these stocks have run a lot in an environment that's uncertain >> in my opinion first of all, in terms of these companies, they have fortresses in terms of balance sheets you look at a much healthier enterprise environment from the balance sheet perspective and

really it started off narrow and this is something will transform tech from a software perspective. you look at numbers and i believe the street as we go into 2024 could potentially be underestimating growth by 10%, 15%, 20% and that's where the rubber meets the road in terms as it all starts to play out and the guidance around the world with the $4 billion raise. not every company is nvidia with the kind of guidance that they gave are you expecting similar-type guidance from others on the list >> i believe for the first time that you'll hear from redman and what you'll see from google, you will now start to see the signs of what ultimately is going to be just a massive expansion of growth that's coming in. that's why i believe, multiple expansion was a story of six months and it's want just walking the walk >> doesn't a potential recession and economic slowdown hurt

potential enterprise spend on some of these things that are enabling these a.i.-related stocks to soar >> nvidia is want giving away its chips for free >> no doubt. what's happening is the different i.t. spending environment that i've seen for the four to six weeks for the first month of the year and that will start to play through it. many investors are expecting the next shoe to drop and numbers will come down and in terms of tech and i can tell you a lot of my institutional investors conversations, many still in the sidelines and i believe after the earnings season it's really going to cause what i view as a tidal wave of growth coming through. >> let me ask you about apple and it pulls back and just slightly can you make the argument that of all of the names on the list, the microsofts, alphabets,

nvidias, metas that it has the least obvious a.i. play to this day? jim cook has not come out and given us any kind of definitive road map on what they're doing, what they see and how it's going to benefit the bottom line of apple, yet the stock's up 43%. i'm not going to sit here and hate on apple. >> sure. >> but i'm saying if we'll talk about stocks that have gotten a huge a.i. lift how much of that 30% is on a.i. though we don't know what the a.i generally speaking is going to be? >> investors' better understanding this iphone 15 is what i call super cycle and their 3 important 2 billion have not upgraded >> cooke continues to play chess and others are playing checkers and this is the start over the next 12 to 18 months of what

eventually will be an a.i. app store. >> what if the economy plays checkmate? what happens if they come out with a phone in september, right? a $1,000 phone and the economy is tailing off right at that moment there's no impact whatsoever >> that's a risk, but i believe right now in terms of what's coming out of asia check, woe're looking at what could be something from a growth perspective that ultimately is 8%, 10%, 15% above where the street is with units and in terms of asp as more and more pro, that will be more and more of a lift and that's why for me from a valuation perspective, i get competitors get off, and i think apple and ultimately in 2025 we're looking at a $4 trillion market cap and this is the next start there's no name on this list where even you start to get queasy with where valuations have gone. none of the names in your universe at all? >> as long as i do my checks and i talk to i.t., and now i see

a.i. that could potentially be 8%, 10% i.t. budgets where it's 1% or less than that today, i believe this is really the start of a new bull market for tech that's going to broaden out, and i think big tech continues to lead what i view is this a.i. game of thrones play out across the board. >> let's expand the conversation and bring in lauren goodwin of new york life management when i look at your notes, right at the top, growth equity bubble could get popped so you do think what we witnessed in the mega-cap in the first part of the year is a bubble >> i think that you're both right with the push and pull between the generative a.i. and i do agree with dan that this is a total gamechanger and the cyclical elements especially with respect to the federal reserve renewing its hawkish

stance, which of course, we expected for the course of the year for investors playing this trend from a broader portfolio, there are three things that we're leaning into first, with the tech names, they have to focus profitability because we do see valuations as being stretched. you know, scott, that i, along with others remain queasy at this level another thing about this is great. look at the small and medium cap, cat growth company, and just think about the shift from 3g or 4g technology and the ecosystem. >> was created by what we were able to do with the phones in our pockets. we can expect a broad range of winners and losers and third, there's all kinds of investment already being made and will continue to be made and be infrastructure that supports this trend so that's the digital infrastructure and it's cybersecurity and all kind of stems beyond the traditional thought process around bridge

and tunnel infrastructure that will be a beneficiary of this trend. >> and so we're looking all around, and where we see more staying trouble. >> it was use twice. >> she twaes out great from a macro perspective. i weigh this 95 internet, iphone 2007 i believe where we're at today could be bigger than potentially either of them which is why i view on the names that we believe are winners. we continue to ride them because we think it's just the start of what's coming from a transformational tech. >> what about that, lauren, that we're not fully appreciating enough this transformative nature of what a.i. will mean to the stocks and if dan is correct and he's nailed this move from the beginning of the year in terms of where tech is going go. if he's right, then maybe it is

the start of a new bull market for tech >> look, i think that it's something that investors are grabbeling with as we speak and i think it's obvious that we can't anticipate as investors the sheer gravity and implications and even the sense of winners and losers that we'll see from a trend like this i think in the near-term the biggest risk to the idea that we're entering a new bull market is that the fed, the multiple expansion, the first half of the year that you both have been talking about is at risk from the fed's renewed, hawkish stance that said, as recession comes, as economic growth grows, that might actually be a period in this investors i know that renewing their growth assets and expect that interest rates will come down and it will be a profitable play whereas caution investors is in the expectation that as the economic growth slows rates are

going to come down we talked a lot about this, scott, but even as economic growth slows unless we have inflation and the labor market really stabilizing at higher rates of unemployment while our wages, but i don't think rates are coming down, and so in the near-term they're likely going to be tactical >> what about that what about that risk and more hawkish fed that actually follows through on what the market doesn't seem to believe it will. >> it's a game of poker going on between the market and fed in my view, whether they do hike once or twice and done, ultimately, this tech bull market, i believe right now we're just the start >> i know, you said that, but there's no rate risk to that despite how optimistic you are for where you think we are in that new cycle

i just view it when we looked out through the quarter hike and we were at the end and we were at the eighth, ninth inning and that's despite the tough talk, and i just think that being negative on tech here is the same thing as being negative at brady with the 2000 draft coming out of michigan. >> you pull a needle out of a haystack not every day, right? as we witnessed with that and i don't know if that's the best analogy ever >> lauren, do you think that we as some have suggested today that, you know, earnings are still going to implode fair value of the s&p is 20% to 30% lower and j.p. morgan's talking about a 5% pullback. goldman sachs says two of the most powerful tailwinds are now going in the market. what do you think? >> look, i do agree with the

relatively concerned narrative on where the market goes from here that's in spite of our expectation that the upcoming recession and i do expect that recession is coming is going to be mild. mild recessions are not historically sanguine for the equity markets and when you look at the median historical recessions since the u.s. in world war i, you have the take to trough gdp growth and a level of decline of 2.5% and the unemployment rate rises by almost 3.5% and earnings deteriorate by 21% in real terms. those are significant pain points and while i agree there's been important support for the economy over the course of the cycle that they're providing the economy in real assets and that's still a meaningful, downward expectation for the s&p 500 and 13 to 17% from where we were before the ai uptick that

we've seen in the last couple of weeks does put us in the potential of a 20% to 30% downturn in the s&p 500 and the one thing that i would say is that the investors often ask did we see that last year and as you have pointed out, last year was all about multiple impressions as interest rates lows recession is a totally dint different animal historically they've not seen recession and we've seen the equity markets only writing down recession probability as that evidence becomes more obvious this we're already in recession. what we're watching closely is the new unemployment claim ticking up ever so slightly in the last couple of weeks and that for me is a technical market indicator of where a near-term correction related to recession could lie. >> you look like you want to respond. >> great points and the cios that i talked to, they went from

cautions to now spending over the next four to six weeks and i just believe that we're seeing shifts from i.t. spend, and i think ultimately as it comes into earnings in july that's where it's proven out. >> you don't think -- >> is there any impact about further economic slowdown and a spend. >> you talk as if there's none of course, there's a risk, and what i see -- we're talking about the degree of risk, dan. we know the economy's slowing. this is not like a pie in the sky risk it's like a legitimate risk. if the economy slows more dramatically than it is now and it approaches a recession which some are saying looks almost inevitable whatever, we'll find out what's the probability is more than, you know, three. >> what i would just say is when i talk to the actual spenders and when i talk to those in the

channel and the people, and i see something that's a much different type of map and that's why i think many came into this year expecting the hard landing and i'm want saying it's rosy and rainbows, but it's a lot better than i ever would have expected even six weeks ago. >> no doubt about that, and given what we've seen year to date with the nasdaq and some of the tech names thank you. we'll see you later? >> thank you >> we'll talk some tesla coming up and lauren goodwin joining us let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know will techs run continue for the rest of the year and and we'll have the closing bell on twitter to vote. up next, drilling down on energy and that sector is going strong and our next guest has significant concerns, though and the s&p and the energy sector up 2% she'll explain how she's trading that uncertainty after the break and we are live from the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell"

on cnbc.

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let's get top stocks to watch as we head to the close kristina partsinevelos >> carnival is down right now. it is down 7%. it was lower than anticipated and here's ceo josh weinstein on cnbc earlier on where profit can go from here listen in. >> it's going to be about 85% in the third quarter, to about 100%

in the fourth quarter. so we're making the right moves and they're starting to show up in the results an iconic british luxury automaker is looking for help from a u.s. ev maker shares of lucid are up about 3% and still off earlier highs where the stocks soared at 15% after it announced it would suspect play aston martin for future ev models and this will be the first time it will act as a supplier expect more from closing bell overtime's interview with lucent ceo just at 4:00 p.m. eastern. >> good stuff. >> we'll see you in just a bit >> energy, one of the top s&p sectors today as traders assess a failed insurrection in russia. the group is still the worst performer of the year and our next guest says energy stocks remain vulnerable and there are bright spots and they join us here at post 9 good to see you. so we're up 2% as the sector today and down 10% on the year

what's your outlook? energy will remain under pressure and we haven't been able to see oil prices and we've been bouncing around 70 and 80 and one breakup and a couple of breakdowns and while energy companies have been extremely shareholder friendly and they're not wild catting and there's no this drill, baby drill mentality and it's a tough sector because you're up against speculations and you're still concerned on that recession and china is moving lower and you're seeing the energy stocks struggle if oil prices will remain anchored. each in the face of everything that you just said which is decidedly negative >> of course there's always bright spots. lng exporter company and they want to export it in europe and energy security is a long-term play the countries didn't like what happened to them after the russian invasion and people will get the stockpiles from and the

export play and slb and schlumberger they changed their name recently and the international drilling does remain more active even as the shale plays are more active. >> the second half of the year is what? from someone who tried to get more optimistic on the market within the last -- i don't know, six or eight weeks, i think? right now we're hitting a bit of a wall if you look at what the average street forecast is, we are 4%, 5% off and if we have two more rate hikes and if this was a pause and not really a pivot you're up against the uphill battle, i think you're in for a slot lot of volatility >> the vix is 14 >> the low vix is pretty good for stocks volatility meaning yes, we should bounce around a little bit, but look, the nasdaq's been up in july and 15 of the last years in july and a lot of good technicals and we stay above 4200 and we just need earnings to cooperate with us and that's

the wild card and we have the liquidity out of the system and where are the banks going to show us in mid-july and all of this ai frenzy at some point you to start making more profits and you have to back that up with earnings >> i think mdx as jonathan krinsky hasn't had a down july since '07. given what those stocks have done coming into july it's primed for a pullback. >> it is >> but you suggested otherwise >> there's too much technical momentum behind that trade to turn back now. >> don't fight the fed you've got a lot of technical support and you have the sentiment rally and cash coming off the side lines and you have your historical precedence of july being the stronger month. we've had a lot and a lot of the performers got pulled forward here in the first half of the year the second half will be more volatile and we'll get it almost the historical 14 as you pointed

out. we'll have to see what's under the hood in earnings and we have this liquidity put from the fed and they weren't necessarily putting money into the system and they inadvertently put money into the system in march and that put more money, and how many more hikes can the market withstand? >> the last 500 basis points and what's another 50? >> okay. we'll leave it there victoria, thank you. >> thanks, scott >> victoria greene >> so fi's liz young breaks down the fed as we head into the back half of the year and pfizer shares are slipping on obesity drug concerns and we have an analyst standing by with what this could mean for the stock long term. closing bell right back.

just about through the first half of the year and my next guest is calling the s&p run overdone, the current valuations things could not expect more upside in the second half and

let's bring in sofi's liz young. you've been surprised by how strong this market has been through the first half and you say ultimately, what it will catch up to itself and it just can't continue >> scott, this is the point in the year who everybody who writes an annual outlook has to sit back and say how am i doing? how is it going? my title to the annual outlook in 2023 was this ends one way or another and we gave a good, hard run at ending the cycle in march and we did have a little scare and here we find ourselves in valuations with the s&p and the five-year average at a point in the cycle when we are sufficiently restrictive on monetary policy and looking kind of down the barrelof will we have a recession or not and it becomes closer and closer in time as the months drag on so i do think that we are going to have to have some sort of giveback we're already seeing that a little bit in some of these tech

names. i heard the interview with can ives and his thesis on ai and the idea that this is the beginning of a bull market for tech probably makes sense longer term and there are a lot of investors who go the in at pretty inflated valuation and will look at gratification sooner rather than later and i don't think they'll get it in the next three to six months. >> at the current levels, earnings will justify where multiples have expanded to >> that's part of it, because you do want to hear something about the fundamentals improving at the same rate as valuations are going up and that's not necessarily something that we've heard. i recognize we haven't had fundamentals that deteriorated as quickly as many of us expected and on the company-specific side and as inflation comes down, thery's a couple of different forces and you look at how the consumer feels and how it's leveled up over the next couple of months

and that's the result of inflation coming down and the market going up and consumers will feel good about that and the labormarket is still strong as inflation continues to come down which is what we all want revenues come down with it because you just can't maintain the pricing power that companies have had for the most part of this cycle and competition picks up again and that happens right around the same time that consumers may be pulling back their spending if they're worried about a slowdown so i'm skeptical of revenues hitting target for the rest of the year in which case margins will be under pressure and a lot of the expectation particularly from 2024 is for margins to be expanting again and 2024 which we'll now start talking about after june finishes are pretty lofty given where we think inflation and revenues will fall out. >> you still say there's a good chance that the fed has done to which some would suggest that's just a positive no matter what a net positive because the next thing that comes if they're done

is cuts. >> that's a net positive if you are in a different part of the cycle. i believe that we are decidedly late cycle right now and this is something that when you look at some of the signals, this is much like the yield curve inversion. it's not the inversion that's the problem. it's the re-steepening that's the problem and the same thing with fed moves it's not the hikes necessarily that are the problem it's not the pause that are the problem. it's the cuts that are the problem and the optimistic view is that the fed will be able to slowly cut rates and get back down to a normal level as inflation cools without breaking anything in the economy, but at these levels, number one, of inversion and these deep levels of le icon traction it's never really happened before that they've been able to normalize and get on the path without some pain in the midst of it and of course, things that have never happened before happen all of the time and i understand this

the cycle has been a surprise for many of us and we re-steepen a yield curve and come out of le icon traction and whistle on our merry way through the rest of the cycle without any bumps in the road >> what if we were late cycle and that's what's happened to ai has prolonged it to a degree that we can't understand at this point. >> i don't think that's necessarily something that's affecting the macro economic indicators, but one of the things that has happened is that you look at just coming out of this pandemic, we didn't have a playbook for this. we didn't have a playbook for this modern, monetary theory times. so it's not something that we could have timed out and i think that there are parts of this where the reaction functions have actually gotten shorter, but the appetite for consumers to continue spending and the amount of stimulus that we had in the system and the amount of liquidity that we had from multiple different directions has lengthened this out and i

continue to believe that because this part of the cycle is taking a long time doesn't mean it will end differently, but i do recognize that's taken a very, very long time and it's made a lot of us question whether or not we're missing something. >> liz, we'll talk to you soon liz young from sofi. >> up next, we're tracking the biggest movers kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. >> scott, i have a health care focus after the break and one name is soaring 75% after, what else a positive drug trial and i'll have that and much more after the break.

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ooo, we can save the laundry til' the morning! oh, yes please! oh! little things like this help save our power and help save us from outages. with flex alerts, the power is ours. almost exactly 20 minutes to go before the closing bell let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for the stocks to watch. >> thank you, scott. ubs thinks mod earna is underappreciated by the market with the stock down 33% year to date and 75% from pandemic highs. the new buy rating is driven by a pipeline that extends beyond covid-19 vaccines and according to the analyst and they like moderna's cmv vaccine use to the treat birth defects although they did lower their price target to $191 a share >> share of moon lake immunotherapeutics are surging 78% rate now it's an all-time high after the

skin disorder drug reached the main target in the mid-stage trial. after 12 weeks studies have a significant portion of patients should have at least a upon 5% reduction in under the skin abscesses. scott? >> kristina part sin of loss >> we asked will they continue for the rest of the year the results are coming up just after this break it is a yes or no question (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments,

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twitter question results we asked will techs run continue for the rest of the year the majority of you are in camp ives as in dan ives who says it will, as well. 58% of you think so. speaking of dan ives, the ev maker getting hit with a downgrade from one of wall street's top firms ives is standing by with his take othn at that and much more when we take you inside "the market zone.

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we're now in the closing bell market zone cnbc senior markets commentator, mike santoli here to break down the crucial moment of the trading day plus dan ives of web bush with the downgrade of tesla and evan seegerman on what's next for pfizer after its obesity drug sent back that stock is selling off today and first i turned to mike santoli. what are you watching as we begin the final week of june it's been a continuation of you can characterize it as a fairly textbook kind of digestion phase for this market and it started the beginning of last week and two fridays ago when we did have the market a little bit out of balance running too hot, too many of the big mega-caps were dominant in the action and today's another day where you have rotation into the many versus the few it almost feels like anti-window dressing and window undressing or something because it's the stuff that's performed really well and i think people are

just, as a matter of discipline rebalancing out with the higher beta big performers and hard to say where it lands and i think the s&p is very comfortably in normal pullback range and we'll see. it feels like there are scenarios people are saying the market has gotten too far ahead of itself and we've gotten to recognize whether they'll soften up and it seems like a comfortable zone between the major catalysts. two of the poster stocks are nvidia and tesla that have been trading sort of in tandem and both were pulling back significantly and it's progressed toward the end and it's down 1% even. these two stocks in particular over the last several weeks have gotten reattached at the ankles and we are the big picture open ended and secular growth stories and you can kind of, plays a huge value on what their

potential destiny is, and that's why i do think you dial that in reverse for a day or so and it makes sense that they're moving in this direction and it was very interesting that there was a rally attempt in tesla in the morning going against the downgrade and that's unwound >> check that out. down 6%. speaking of, dan ives downgraded from neutral from buy valuation and this stock better reflects our positive, long-term view of the company's growth potential and competitive positioning and posts a substantial move higher year to date what do you think about this call >> joining us from morgan stanley. >> why not ives? >> because look, these are analysts that i have a huge respect for and i understand the valuation perspective. if you look at unit, then i get it and in my opinion, it's the sum of the parts and because what happened in the technology and because it's super charged and the ai perspective with the fsd and others and when i look

out over the next 12 or 18 months and we were still in the middle innings of really this growth story playing out >> the bulls on tesla justify the valuation and they'll justify it by any means necessary. >> it's an open-ended story. so we can have lots of varying estimates and you tweak the potential for these businesses and i would be interested on the a.i. side and they are on the self-driving forever and that's the version of ai in that mode what about the new, large language models is going to help or enable the more accurate, and most of my conversations and even over the last week on tesla, okay, this fsd and what's the next step. clearly, there have been a lot of issues i believe over the next year from beta to what we're seeing just from the injegsz of data more and more beta users and i believe they

cracked the code i believe this could be a seminal inflexion point on ai and the backdrop ultimately on the sum of the parts with the detroit and the 313 area code. >> you're referring to the news of the last few weeks. >> so ford and gm. i think what that's done is it opened up the story and it is tesla and super charges is batteries next and then what potentially could be ai. on the sum of the parts and that's where i view we can start to rationalize the valuation and that starts to get to the 1.5 trillion >> this changes the way that you think investors should look at the valuation of this company. >> look, some will disagree and you've seen the valuation downgrades which i totally respect. in my view, i believe the story in tesla's changed i think this now starts to reflect, i'll call it a cloud story with microsoft and aws and the services story with cooke

and cupertino. that's what's happening rate now and that's what's playing out with tesla and of course, next week we'll get deliveries from contessa >> bookending our show as dan ives has done today. evan seegerman, i'm looking at pfizer it is down 3.5% today on the news of their obesity drug, the twice-daily pill rather than the single dose. that's what's the drag today, correct? >> that is correct this morning they got word that they had phase one and phase two testing and they're moving forward with the twice daily, i think the nuance here is they're working at some point to reformulate that to a once daly and that's what you need to be competitive with the likes of lilly for their oral gop1 at the meeting this weekend >> you're making no change to your outlook on this company or the stock price of 49 bucks. >> correct >> other analysts today are calling this, quote, a clear

setback or, quote, incrementally negative from other analysts, as well do you not see it that way >> i think it is a setback because clearly, we wanted this one to move forward, but i'm not throwing in the towel which is the asset that they're moving forward. they it willy designed this program to reduce the risks. so they had two assets moving forward. one didn't work so they have the other one. >> if we didn't have any glp one in development that would be a problem. i am really focused on to see if they can formulate this to a once daly and that's pretty important in my view and i'm not throwing in the towel at this point because they did design this program to spread the risk out. >> what about the competition from the likes of lilly and novo i realize this is not going to be the greatest analogy in the world, but who's talking about j & j's covid vaccine which was a twice daily -- >> it was a double dose and it was upstaged for lack of a better word by others.

why wouldn't the same thing happen here that if you're into one of these drugs you're just going to go where the ease is? >> so i think when it comeses to daniel, the key is the twice daily formulation which is what's the issue and they are well within the bounds and the data we saw from this drug which was published in gmls and it was up 5% and you're still giving the ozempic-like efficacy and i don't think it's the j&j, pfizer with the vaccines and these are all very close and i agree that it is a setback, but i don't think it's catastrophic at this point. >> are you looking at this >> the other distinction would be that if one of these products gets to market it's a very long life of that usage in other words, it's not kind of like vaccine, you have a couple of years where pfizer over earns and that's a forever thing,

correct? >> the stock has really gotten to look cheap and it's got a 4.4% dividend yield and it's 1011 times forward earnings and it shows you that the market feels as if the market has overearned during this period and they don't know exactly what's next in terms of being able to produce another earnings driver and so that's the disappointment and it's not a huge drop on a single day and it's more of the same in terms of underperformance by the stock and even in a tape where big pharma's had a struggle. how many players are there room for? is it infinite it. >> you have multiple players and you have lilly and novo with the injectables and you have pfizer, lilly and the structure that i cover with orals and there are other players in earlier developments and there's room for more than one, even a few and there could be a hundredplus billion market and pfizer's glp

franchise which is 5% of what the market is. >> i appreciate you coming on. >> evan is joining us today from bmo capital markets and as we turn to mike santoli and away from the two-minute warning and again, the nasdaq's a big drag and dan ives is at the top of the show with the start of the bull market. >> the way the market has behave side somewhat reminiscent of a general new bull market and i think the big question is the 1995 at the dawn of the internet which is what it is. and that's a high hurdle at this point, and this is a category of stock that's had an incredible run and they've had the valuation inflated by high hopes for what can get done in this mode and the netscape ipo took the entire world by surprise and we did not see it coming and no one was there predicting that 1995 was going to be 1995 and you have to be careful and

interestingly in a different regard 95 as the ultimate soft landing with the economy when the fed orchestrated that tightening mode and back off a bit and cut slightly and the economy stayed strong that's an interesting analog for what the bull case is right now which is it has happened in the past yep, unemployment was higher and they had more room to fall than right now and the distinction and the market is more expensive than it was back then, but in '95, the stock market was not cheap based on the prior 30 years and there's different valuation. so i think there was a good argument to be had that that might represent the kind of the beacon of bullishness that you might be able to apply to this current market i don't think that when i look at tesla at $800 billion and nvidia at a trillion that it's an unrecognized bull case that they can enter this new age of ai prosperity. >> very hard for people to look

into this market and they think on what could be a good grip on a fair valuation >> just given what fed policy is and where the economy may be going and what ai will mean. >> yeah. thank you. mike santoli joining us again. that does it for us on "closing bell and into overtime now with morgan and jon [ closing bell ringing ] the s&p and the nasdaq especially in the red and the dow's about flat and that's the scorecard on wall street. >> welcome to closing bell overtime i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we will talk to two expert voices on geopolitics about the turmoil in russia and the potential impact on global stability and the markets. >> plus three ceo interviews you do not want to mix th