we need it. ryan seacrest has been tapped to take over as host of "wheel of fortune" when pat sajak retires next year. they only tape for two or four days a month. >> vanna white is keeping her job. >> that's amazing. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell. we begin with the rally in stocks and whether the setup for the second half is now in your favor. vantage rocks avery sheffield here is with that answer in just a moment a nice, broad move today industrials, discretionary materials in tech all contributing all good news on key parts of the city new home sales rising at the fastest pace in a year and consumer confidence blowing

away expectations. it leads us to our talk of the tape the momentum, is there enough of it to keep the bulls charging ahead. let's ask avery, right here with me at post 9 good to see you. how do you answer that question? is there enough momentum in what's been a surprising first half as we make this turn? >> right, yes. i -- i'm not sure. so from a fundamental standpoint, i think the economy, what we see is we are seeing inflation kind of slowing, moderating, even rolling over, even going negative in some categories, which is good as a tailwind for some consumers. it is necessarily good for companies that are experiencing the pressure of that inflation, right? so that like one dynamic that's a positive as long as the market continues to go up, that's a positive. and then, on the other hand, and jobs are still pretty strong

on the other hand, you have rising credit card debt, rising interest costs creating some pressure so i think it is still like a tough call of what is going to happen so from a stock perspective, what we're focused on is where is there just too much negativity priced in on the long side and where are expectations very optimistic with high valuations in companies that have issues. it is a tough call it feels to me to be a little weak but if the market keeps going, that will be a nicetailwind. also, you will have the student loan debt come due in september, which feels like forever from now, but that's actually quite meaningful $100 million, 2% of retail sales. >> do you think the risk/reward is better now than it was? >> they're saying it's worse. >> it's worse? >> they're saying it's worse for the market as a whole. >> because we rallied a lot? >> yes

value rations are too high. it matters what you pay, right he's coming from a bearish call. he's been bearish, but he's continuing to be bearish, especially at the levels that we're at he's saying maybe the market could be strong next year from a very different level so these levels look high. can they keep running? can this be 2006/2007? you see issues down the road that they just forget it, they certainly could. it is a favor to buy names that have more negativity priced in. >> the one we see in tech, what do you make of it? does it make sense to you? do you think it has legs to go further? >> right so i think, look, the ai is clearly driving demand for nvidia's chips and other related components certainly microsoft is in a great place related to that. but, you know, outside of the build-out, everyone is trying to figure out what is the business

model going to be? there is a decent amount of investment there but which companies benefit, how many versus putting together really easy to use ai applications i think it's really unclear. so i think it's risky to be buying names that have a lot of ai hype in them that don't have a business model between them. it is closely related to net income net income of companies are okay, but like somewhat under pressure because of the inflationary dynamics we have seen that can crowd up other technology spending. so i think you have to be careful on where you pick your spots. >> that's funny. when you say all that and you look at the sheet and you like intel. >> aren't they being displaced by nvidia? >> justify it, though. >> right so we always like to find -- we are always interested in where people are just overly negative and things won't be as bad as

people anticipate and they're company specific id you sin critic factors that can turn around intel has really lagged on the foundry, on the manufacturing side and amd, nvidia and others on the design side basically, not too well on either side. but what we have here is really, i think, the beginning stages of the a turn-around on the way patrick left for emc and vmware for many years knows how to run a really good business came back, you know, in the past couple years to really create just much more discipline and efficiency this is an execution driven business he's separating the pmls between foundry and logic. analysts are skeptical about whether this can be successful but you are starting to see early signs of success in designs getting better he's identified $10 billion of

costs he will take out they're investing $60 million with help of governments in new semiconductor manufacturing facility heres here in the u.s. and germany in europe. and, so, there is just -- there is a lot that could go right, an evaluation on normalized earnings that half of tmc, a third of amd so if they execute, there is a lot of upside. >> it is interesting to me to hear somebody who is generally cautious, if not skewed negative, for the second half, right? you think the economy will continue to get a little worse but if you like select retailers. you like airlines, autos, chip manufactures, regional banks, office rates how do we square this? >> one thing i like to point out is everyone has been talking about the homebuilders, what great stocks they were a year ago we were talking about how armageddon was coming to the housing market the earnings are down 30% from

last year, but they're down nowhere near what was priced in, so the stocks have nearly doubled. we're at this point where technology stocks are given a pass they will be completely uneffected by any kind of cyclical downturn, where these stocks are pricing in far too negative of an outcome i wouldn't buy every company in these sectors. i wouldn't buy an etf for these sectors necessarily. but because the whole sector has been pulled down, you can find companies that have company-specific dynamics that are very positive. >> like regional banks >> yes. >> you want to name names? >> i don't know that i want to name names but look for banks that have very strong credit so banks that have very high interest coverage ratios so the people they lend to can withstand higher rates they can price up to handle the

higher cost of deposits. they can price their loans higher and still make a margin you want to make banks still focused on efficiency. they have to drive down their costs. you have some regional banks that are trading at like covid levels, not about to like go under, that have the ability to price up their loans, we think, and cut costs enough to offset the deposit, the increased deposit pressure by the way, if at some point we start to lower rates and the yield curve starts to seep in, they have potential to be home runs. >> i noticed earlier, i think s.o. green is up 30% in a month. >> yes. >> i mean, that is telling an interesting story from a stock standpoint, even as there is broad concern about what will eventually happen there. >> yes i think it's very interesting because what happened yesterday is that they announced a japanese investor has come in to buy property at 46 and park, and the current return isabout 3%. the return fully utilized about

5% why would someone do that when treasuries here in the u.s. are at 5%? they want to lock-in a ten-year return it's still lower in japan than the u.s. they are looking for an asset with a good return what people are forgetting is that we are, i think, in the early stages of seeing a return to work. we're seeing most of the major banks, we're seeing major in our industry firms like citadel demanding that people come in. by the way, if the office is in that area five days a week we will see a return to office i have also been hearing about people in companies really fighting to get the best office space to retain their workers. so i think that dynamic is underappreciated by the way, i wouldn't be buying class c office space it is similar to what you saw in the mall reads the best malls have been able to increase rents, been in a good position the japanese are coming in

because they're seeing favorable dynamics there was just an article bloomberg had overnight in london that hsbc is moving into more central regions, taking half the price but at 50% higher rents because it is important for workers. the company we're talking about is all centered around grand central. most of the properties are high quality so they could have pricing power while others could be in a lot of trouble. >> let's bring in somebody who has been unwaveringy his positivity about this market just came out with a new note this morning ed, thank you for calling in i am quoting from your note. the per mabears will have to postpone their imminent recession yet again based on today's batch of u.s. economic indicators our rolling recession the turning into a rolling expansion. explain. >> well, there has been a big

debate, as you well know, about when a recession is coming and i have been arguing for a while here that we're actually in a recession it's just a rolling recession hitting different industries at different times. and, so, we certainly got hit with a housing recession and now we also got hit with a consumer recession but both of those look like they're reversing. >> so you think the second half looks pretty good for the market i mean, what is your general outlook for where you think the s&p can go >> well, scott, as you know, i have been -- i argued that the october 12th flow was below back in october so we've had a heck of a move here my target is 3,600 by year end i hope we don't get there in a few weeks, the way this market is going i'm not rooting for a mark-up here i wouldn't mind a bit of a correction to 4,200. that wouldn't be the 10%

official correction. but i think the market needs to have some breather here. but it certainly looks that the fundamentals are great the technicals not so much and the evaluation not so much. >> yeah. i have avery sheffield with me and who i want to get in and opine on on your perspective what do you think about what he said >> with housing we just discussed, housing is in a recession. prices are down year over year but we have gotten to a point in new home construction that the builders are expanding and they're finding that prices are stable so maybe they can raise a bit from here. that is down year over year, but we found a stable place where maybe things can improve a bit we'll see what happens when student loan debt comes through. unclear call but inventory is very constrained, so might continue to improve from here and the builders in particular could potentially make it up on volume. >> what about 4,600? does that sound possible to you? you look skeptical. >> i mean, it is like everything

is possible, right i think certainly if the animal spirits continue, yes. but does it make sense long-term? like would you buy and hold that for the next ten years i wouldn't >> so, ed, how do you counter that avery put forth that the market is too expensive? it's been a multiexpansion based on multiple expansion. >> right i'm not telling anybody this market is dirt cheap from a valuation perspective. but i think from a fundamental perspective, the outlook is really quite good. as you know, during all the pessimism we've had here, i said we're going to come out of this. we will probably not have an economy-wide recession once we start to see signs of an economy-wide expansion, i think we will see something like the roaring 2020s where it leads to increases in productivity. from that point i have been making recently, 35 million baby

boomers born between 1946 and 1953, they're in their late 50s and into their mid-70s and they have collectively $75 trillion in net worth. assets minus liabilities, $75 trillion they're going to spend a lot of that and they're going to pass a lot of that on to their kids >> so just 4,600 does the fed matter at all to you? i mean, there are projections that they're going to go like morgan stanley adding a july others may go in july and others as well. do you care for your projection or not >> well, i do care and i think that the key issue is inflation and as i pointed out in my note this morning, the news that we've gotten from the regional surveys conducted by the federal reserve banks, five of them do

business surveys and they're the most up-to-date indicators as of june we continue to see prices paid and prices received really dropping is that rightly in a way that suggests that we will have a surprising drop in consumer surprises it will be led by rent inflation will come down a lot meanwhile, goods inflation, certainly according to the business survey, suggested that goods inflation is coming down as well and will stay down. >> so what do you make of avery's suggestion that there is good opportunity in selective, whether it's airlines, autos, regional banks, office rates, some areas that no one wants to touch, you know. >> yeah. let's think about what the baby boomers are doing. a lot of my friends are retiring i don't play golf, so i don't know what i would do so i'm going to keep working. but my retiring baby boom

friends, they're going out to restaurants almost on a daily basis. they're going on trips they're going on cruises and, so, that certainly continues to favor the cruise lines, the airlines, the health care area. that's obviously going to continue to boom as the baby boomers get older. that's creating a lot of jobs. it is all feeding on itself with demographics, particularly the baby boomer demographics is something that the pez myselves haven't really factored into their thinking. >> and i appreciate it i will let you run i know you're on vacation. i appreciate you taking the time to phone in to this conversation that certainly got us talking today. so i will leave it for lastly with you, avery. the most underappreciated area right now in the market is what would you say? you know, around what? >> yes. >> maybe it is not even equities i don't know you have a lot of competition

elsewhere. >> yes, yes. >> should would suggest that it still exists there still are other opportunities that present good reward with less risk. >> right well, i mean, private credit, i mean, certain areas in credit look compelling and interesting. so, yes, i concur. the rates you can get for lending to very stable companies are quite compelling and then in the equity markets, i would say probably like regional banks and office rates would be two of the most hated where you could see real surprises, especially if ed's forecast comes to fruition. >> we shall see and we will talk to you soon. that's avery sheffield let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know has the risk/reward continued to improve for stocks vote yes or no the results later on in the hour let's get a check on some top stocks to watch as we head into the close. >> well, delta is at its highest

level in over a year after projecting full-year earnings per share at the high end of its previous range demand is, quote, off the chain. and delta is still seeing customers pay for more expensive seats. that includes jet blue, united and american you can see they're all 5% or more on your screen right now. let's talk about walgreens right now. it is having its worst day since 2020 after its first earnings miss in 20 years also lowering its full-year guidance as it sees lower demand for covid services and margin pressures related to a lighter respiratory season which is good news for us, bad news for the stock which is down over 9.5%. >> yeah. thank you. we'll see you in just a bit. up next, searching for opportunity. john spallanzani is breaking out his second half play book. he'll tell us where he's seeing strength now after the break cruise lines sailing higher today, reversing course in a

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welcome back we have a developing story in the m and a space. the doj and ftc requiring changes for merger paperwork it could have a major impact when and how deals get done.

leslie picker joins us on the phone. a high hurdle turning already, it sounds, into a pole vault, if you will. >> that's exactly right, scott you bring up a good point. it does have to do with filing paperwork, a lot of technical aspects. but what it means for deal activity which, as you mentioned, has already been shown over the last year or two. what this involves the hsr form. it is what agency requiring merging parties to fill out, their intent to merge. it describes all sorts of competitive aspects of what the merger would entail and what it means for the entry itself, if it's a horizontal merger, a vertical verger. they look at revenue overlap, things of that nature. they're looking at overhauling this in a way that could potentially be more onerous for parties looking to merge

analysts say it could increase the number of hours required, you know, to fill out these forms. it could delay the process by months although, in its press release today, the ftc and doj says it would allow for a more effective and efficient merger review and also address some congressional symptoms that foreign entities concern. these are countries seen as less friendly with the u.s. and subsidies of that nature could also impact the competitiveness of certain deals that previously accounted for. this is a notice that will be pub pished later this week and comments are due in 60 days. so it is not official. >> i didn't mean to step on your toews there. the other beat you cover, of course, the banks. i can already hear the heads of capital markets throwing their shoes against the wall saying, you know, what more could stand in the way of a pick up in capital markets business >> you are exactly right

obviously the banking activity fees they generate from these types of deals is critical and it's been dormant for a very long time at this point. they're looking for anything that could warm the chilling they have seen so far. this certainly doesn't help at all. but one of the main reasons that bankers tell me there has been such a deal is there has been so much uncertainty in the regulatory environment they're not sure how much appetite legislators have for doing these deals. so it could be that maybe once this gets up and running, once people see how it works and the time line and how it all happened, that could maybe unleash some of the pent-up demand for deals but in the meantime, it is definitely more of the same in terms of uncertainty. >> thank you, leslie picker. as we move on, the s&p already up 14% so far this year, but

billion value investor says the environment for stock picking opportunities has been improving. here he is on squawk box this morning. >> this environment feels like a four in terms of opportunity. >> with a ten being the best >> ten being the best. it is nowhere near, you know, nine or ten. but it's better than it was. you had such extended value cases, such little downside, volatility really for the last decade or more but the nature of opportunity we see is better than it was, but still not at peak. >> all right so let's bring in john of the miller family office welcome. it is good to see you. a four out of ten, what do you think? does that sound right to you >> i don't know. he also said there hasn't been a lot of volatility on the downside which obviously we had a global pandemic. i was on the floor when the vic said 80. >> what is it now? >> it's 14

yeah in his mind that's probably what he thinks. >> what do you think in terms of the environment, is it a 4 out of 10, or has it improved to the point where it's gotten over the mid-hump and let's say it is a 6 or 7 now as some people are trying to suggest. >> most of the people you have on are still quite bearish they don't believe in the digital renaissance or this tech revolution they believe the mark is overvalued they believe in a lot of things that are still bearish so in terms of that, that's been going on for ten years. >> are you taking the other side of it? >> i would take the other side, of course. i think i'm in the dan ives camp of what's going to happen. >> that's my new nickname for you, then. >> i mean, come on dan ives says 15%, 20% more. tom lee is bullish. >> yeah. but there is five guys right? and you just named all of them, basically. and the rest are still kind of

bearish because they said the market is overvalued a lot of things. we don't know when the correction will be, when the recession is going to come they have been saying a recession for 12 to 18 months. this is the most predicted recession we haven't had in the longest period of time every time we say recession, you know, it doesn't come. so that leads us to believe, well, maybe, you know, maybe kathy wood could be right. are we looking at the wrong indicators she might be picking up that we're going from this big data creation that really is not factors into the ism and other things the global efficiency of chat gpt and all these other internet of things. 5g was supposed to be a 5x move in terms of productivity nobody is talking about 5g anymore. that will be a huge roll-out as we go to 2030. now we have chatgpt. that's another huge productivity and efficiency gainer. not to mention, it is

inflationary because you will have a lot more people doing a lot less and you are going to have a lot more productivity. so we have factories retooling we have all kinds of things that were going on that we're not seeing picked up on the data. >> we're shuffling through here as you talk. megacap tech, this has been the story of the year. amazon and mega cap names. do you think those stocks have a lot more room to go? you mentioned ives it suggested 12% to 15% more this year. >> this year, yes, possibly. but other the next ten years, we don't know the sky is the limit, right? because what you're seeing now is that this big technological revolution that we're having is going to affect everything there will be massive winners and massive losers a lot of the stocks you just mentioned were the biggest losers last year not only were they short, nobody

was expecting the news to change in such a favorable way. so we went from the four ts being technology, trillions, tax policy and innovation, to basically bitcoin is the best performer. we have big tech and those big tech companies have had the strongest balance sheets and that'swhere people went to hide when they had the blow-up in silicon valley banks. they went to the high liquidity stocks with big balance sheets they actually were expecting a recession over a year ago that never appeared. >> so let me ask you this. >> yeah. >> the miller family used to be miller value where is the value where is the greatvalue as we make the turn to the back end of the year >> right now we see obviously the qs are up 30%. and we saw the mid and small caps were flat so you have to sharpen your

pencil and dig deep into that category if you want to take it up to $10 billion. there is a lot of stuff that's been thrown out with the bath water. >> do you think so >> i think too much so that will be the catch to the end of the year or last week we saw, you know, small and mid-caps rally 500 basis points because there is guys that exploit the relative value trade. so there is trillions of dollars, obviously, in the market and when they see q is up 30% and mid and small flat on the year, you know, they will try to close that gap right now it is beginning to close. >> the other thing i want to talk to you about is bitcoin you mentioned crypto i mentioned amazon sort of synonymous with you guys bitcoin has become that way as well we played the clip of car men on "squawk box. i want you to listen to what he said listen. >> yeah. >> there are hundreds, maybe thousands of different crypto

currencies you don't have a thousand paper currencies in your wallet. i have one i worry that it is a seductive idea i called it catnip for techkies. it is exciting you can imagine you are getting on the ground floor of gold. i'm a skeptic, but i would never say something, something can't happen. >> that's a fair assessment, isn't it >> yeah. and we see the bank of england just came out and said they want to have the britain coin -- there is a lot of central banks that want more control over their currency, the digital dollar, stuff like that. basically, bill's premise has been since the paper was submitted to the santa fe institute, which is his think tank, and he liked the technology bitcoin itself was cheaper then. he really viewed it as a cool technology, something that could be a disrupter amazon was a disrupter and jeff

bezos was a disrupter and nobody believed that in 2000. he liked the technology. he liked what it represents. the use case, if you want to play that card of it, i mean, i could see a greater use case for an amazon than someone would suggest exists for bitcoin or any other -- as he says 100 coins or what have you. >> remember, that the use case, you know, for bitcoin is the use case is as an insurance policy when all things kind of go bad we're not just talking domestically as more and more people get connected to the internet, get connected to banking, there is going to be a need for something like a bitcoin or something like that where, you know, people can't confiscate your money. we just saw the russian coup there was rumors that people in russia were buying, you know, bitcoin, whether doing it legally or illegally there is always a flight to safety it is a lot easier to have

bitcoin on your phone. that's something on a ledger that everybody can see that's transparency and that nobody is going to take from you rather than having, you know, pesos or ar dollars. >> up next, the market's next move charting out where he sees stock heading from here, if he thinks the big tech rally can last. it's half the break. "closing bell" right back.

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are evs losing money that's not going to be the case in four years. there is a lot of upside in the profitability. >> the federal government is at a 32 trillion deficit. we will have to keep printing money to pay the interest expensions. >> i wouldn't imagine this two years, but it couldn't be more bullish in the moment. >> we did see a lot of inflation last year. we see some of the cost of goods starting to moderate a bit, and that's really helpful. nice move today. stocks higher across the board nasdaq closing in on its best first half in nearly 40 years. has the outlook gotten more favorable as we head to the end of the year? let's ask jeff welcome. nice to see you. >> thank you, scott. >> i've gotten many fundamental takes today, so let's go technical. >> i think they look pretty

good our trend work started positive at the end of january. it stayed resolute for a long time oversold conditions have been met with buyers, which is exactly what you want to see we're sequencing the series of higher highs and higher lows i wouldn't call it a momentum market maybe we're starting to shift to that a little bit, but certainly it is a tread market being led by tech. those are cyclical sectors that are far more characteristic of a bull market than a bear market it has been roughly health care, a little bit of utilities. bulletproof indications that you are in a bear market. >> you use the word "bulletproof." so you are suggesting this bull market, which some are debating if it is one, is legit. >> keep in mind what we do, right? we listen to the market, and we

don't force our views on the market we just try to listen to what the market is telling us and when we listen intently without biases or prejudice, we find that the majority of the indications are certainly more bullish than bearish. >> trends, though, if not changing on a time, they can still change reasonably quickly based on a change of event no >> you know, it's a little bit susceptibility it is like being healthy, right? if you are not healthy, you are going to be more susceptible to disease. the market is the same way i say on a scale 1 to 10, i would call this is a 7 in terms of the technical strength. i still think it is pretty good. there is a question about breadth. we find breadth chases price i would say that real rates are something that has us a little concerned. we're not overly bullish on the banking sector

in fact, we're pretty bearish on banks based on what we're seeing here with the exception of some of these one-offs, it is more characteristic of a bull, not a bear. >> 69% of the s&p was up yesterday. we have a nice, broad move again today. i appreciate your time we'll see you soon. >> yeah. joining us right here on "closing bell. tracking the biggest mover as we head closer to the end of today's session. we are up better than 200 points christina is standing by with that. >> i will talk about artificial intelligence partners with nvidia, which is helping two stocks jump today. we discuss the details after this very short break.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy!

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16 minutes until the closing bell christine that is watching right now. >> it is time to team up on artificial intelligence. snowflake not only announced it is expanding its existing partnership with microsoft to build that large-scale generative ai models, but they will build apps in snowflake's cloud. it will allow customers to build ai models using their own data that's why you are seeing shares up over 4.5% shares of amkor technology are jumping right now.

it is working with nvidia on advanced ai packages it is up 11% right now and considered the number two after tsmc quite a big jump on just one rumored report. >> thank you last chance to weigh in on our twitter question as the risk/reward improved for stocks the results are right after this break.

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the results of our twitter question, has the risk/reward improved for stocks? the majority of you said no, but it was close 52.5% to 47.5% we're back after this with the homebuilders driving today could be fear money in the long-run when we take you inside the market zone. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today.

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hitting new highs today. the big rebound on the cruise lines. and julia breaking down the rally in meta. mike, got a nice finish here 59 points on the s&p and the sector is a pretty broad move, too. >> yes we had a 100-point pullback. just to scale things, it was a low drama pullback that's the way i would pull it all the way down to 4,200 and you still could in a trend all the boxes will be checked off. but the issue is we have a little bit. >> the issue is all the boxes will be checked. >> and people have embraced an upbeat case. i don't think all of the skepticism has been burned off, so we could still go farther from here. but i think it seems more balanced. >> nice day for homebuilders

how about that housing data this morning that you gave us >> yeah. the homebuilders are clearly on a tear of an expected read it made the home building etf up about 3% on the day and 40% year to date. na new home sales are up over 12% month to month and up 20% from may of last year these numbers are based on signed contracts during the month. people out shopping in may when mortgage rates were really rough. shot sharply higher in the second half of the month that cut into affordability, but apparently it did not deter buyers and the road ahead looks busy as the number of homes sold but not just started has nearly doubled from a year ago. there is the runway for your homebuilders. >> how about this move, the reversal i'm looking at carnival cruise

line the low of 1,470 now it is up better than 8%. >> yeah. it is burning out to be the classic bull/bear debate there is this collective acknowledgment that the stock went up too far, too fast this year of 95% year to date other analysts pointing to the impressive surge in bookings that and higher ticket prices and this expectation that that will help them achieve the second half profitability goals. now, the other thing to keep into account, the carnival's investor day i did hear from inside the room that the ceo josh weinstein spent some time clarifying the company's longer-term financial goals. that is playing into the rebound we are seeing right now. royal and region also higher on the day. >> good stuff. thank you very much. for that, julia boorstin and then there is meta, just $2

away from its new high as well up 3% today. >> that's right, scott shares rising 3%, bringing year to date gains to nearly 139% this comes after city raises price markets, up from $315. the stock is still below $290 right now. they believe reels is experiencing greater advertiser adoption and believe meta's investment can deliver incremental usage to users, creators and advertisers this comes as meta's whatsapp business announced it topped 250 million active users, up from 50 million users three years ago. also announcing new tools for the platform, easier add creation of click it to whatsapp ads. and you can personalize messaging to users. >> julia, thank you very much

for that mike, i turn to you. the stock just had a minnesota ster of a year. >> yes. >> as we debate, what, 36? >> no. forward on meta is low 20s >> this. >> it is basically at its five-year average. you had that big crash and people got more comfort with the margin story now, in fact, it's barely eclipsed alphabet again. it's getting revalued as a play that people feel is less vulnerable, more predictable we will see how much it plays out. it trade up toward 30 back in 2021 so i think this is the equation we're thinking about a lot all the people that even love the markets say, well, it is kind of cheap. >> look at the cheapest of the mega caps. >> a lot of things are just in recovery mode still like netflix

and meta and microsoft is bumping up against the highs. big ones, known ones trading below a ten-year average you have american express, ups, starbucks, lowe's, via it doesn't mean they're outright cheap. it doesn't mean the forward earnings will come through as projected. but it does tell you that really not all the market is valued as aggressively as we think i would say rates are higher, real yields are higher maybe at this moment in the economic cycle is not the time to pay up. again, i think it is more of an even trade and usually the tie goes to the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls when you have proven that this trend has been positive for this long. >> we just have the two-minute warning here are we vulnerable to central bank barks tomorrow? because we will get sara where you have an all-star docket. >> if you get a real dramatic,

sharp reaction in the bond market, yes. so far anything beyond, you know, the two-year yield in treasuries is purely middle of the range. they're not making new highs in yield. it is in a comfortable zone. we feel as if, you know, at this point it looks like july hike for the fed iscilled in. the market seems okay with it. the whole equation has been, you know, is the fed going to feel as if it really has to undermine consumer demand and the labor market in order to get inflation where it wants it? right now the market is betting it doesn't necessarily have to we will get the pc number on friday we will see if inflation is stubborn or continuing to move in the direction everyone is hoping and expected. >> that is the wild part, to where the fed doesn't have to choke off the demand and thinks it does. >> that's right. the fed has messaged that it's not necessarily looking to

target market levels or the unemployment rate in saying they really need to apply more rain, which was the case almost a year ago in august. so it is a different tone. that's why the market feels more comfortable. >> the bounceback today, that is the message we get the dow is better than 200 i will see you tomorrow. morgan and john coming up. a rally for stocks today with the nasdaq finishing at its best levels or having its best day in a month we are just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." investor bill nygren opens up his value for the second half. we will talk about his top picks and familiar names he likes at these current levels. >> alphabet catching a downgrade, sending a variety of