that stock's been trading near multiyear highs. i would know but jon, look at the markets, i mean, we did have a rally today. markets finished higher. and the nasdaq really kind of led the gains here, as we saw rotation back into tech and growth >> for sure. >> that's going to do it for us here an "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," the unstoppable builder boom housing stocks hitting one high after another. but is a rally justified or has it gotten stupid we're checking the foundation of this trade. plus, a meta meltup. shares jumping more than 3%, as wall street claims a biggest bull on the stock. and later, a groovy opportunity. psychedelic treatments all the rage and the trend is catching the eye of some big investors. so, will this be the next cannabis craze i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq market site.

we start off with that rapid and seemingly unrelentless rise in home builders. lennar, pultegroup, nvr, dr horton hitting record highs and the group has been on a hear all year just look at some of the gains in the major players in 2023, far outpacing the s&p and even the tech-heavy nasdaq, even amid all the economic uncertainty. mortgage rates are near record highs and that's helped drive down home prices the first year over year drop in new ho years. does the current environment support this run that we've seen in the builders, or this is trade on shaky ground? guy, you are the one that called this trade stupid. >> stupid, yes, this morning on the call i said, with the move we're seeing in pulte homes and some of these names, now it's getting a little ridiculous. but collectively, we've been talking about home builders for nine, ten months when people were running from

them for fear of a slowdown. we talked about how supply/demand imbalances were still in play. look at the stocks lennar just took out its 2021 high forever rom december it is getting a little absurd here i think this is the wrong time to be piling in. i think dan would probably agree. would love to hear what chris has to say, but if you have enjoyed the ride, you are enjoyed it for the right reasons. these stocks are going higher for fundamental reasons. >> chris >> well, i think you can have two views. you can have the secular view that this is leadership and may maintain that for some period of time, but in the short-term, we're talking about names that are 25%, 30% above the 200-day moving average in a market that's regularly punished overbought seconditions if you are looking for things that are not as stretched, home depot, lowe's, sherwin some of the derivatives, probably more appropriate from a timing standpoint here >> and there's a 10% gap between

xhb and itb, showing that difference there >> listen, i thought it looked a little silly think we talked about it a few days ago today's price action feels like this is the month end, this is quarter end this is something that has worked. and it's been slightly counterintuitive that being said, i mean, i think to chris's point, look at a masco, it's up 20% from its 2021 highs, but it feels like it is very near its 52-week highs. i made the point a couple times in the last couple weeks, the fact that some of these stocks weren't keeping up pace with some of the builders that would lead me to believe there was this value trade going into this supply/demand dynamic, but there's other things look at the xli, the industrials, they look like they're about to break out for all the folks that have been in the broadening out camp, it's not just a.i., there are some things to chew on -- >> i thought you were coming around to the idea

>> i've been wrong about plenty of things. we just try to call it like we see them i'm not going to fight this sort of stuff >> that's the key, tim this is part of, you know, one of the trades this year that has worked, in spite of all the reasons to not like it, it's still working, but do you jump on it? that's the question. >> so, the guys are talking about some of the other related names in the xhb, so, let's take a whirlpool. around 150, 155, that's chris's chart territory, but you're kind of breaking through some important resistance, and whirlpool, which was so badly punished when there was a lot of demand during covid for appliances and for people staying at home and nesting, couldn't deliver on the products major supply chain, major kcost and margin headwinds they were a 30-plus percent market share company, they went down to low 20s and the stock was punished for it. they are back to high 20s. i like whirlpool here. i think people that are pushing back on the housing sector are right toll do that, as well. i mean, the supply side of it,

we do this all the time. diana 0 lick gives us this data all the type 2.6 months supply means that there's going to be a bid even in a rising rate environment, even for people that don't want to leave a mortgage. and then you have people like lennar, who said, you know, a week ago or so on their numbers that they feel like they're filling a void in terms of the spec market, people that just want -- and many cases, these are first-time buyers. so, i think today's housing data is a bit of a head fake. people are relieved that it was -- the actual housing prices are down small yearover over ye- watch that trend year over year prices were up 20 they are coming down, and the momentum here on a chart like this doesn't just stop at zero i think housing prices especially in some inflated markets do have to come down >> yeah, the ceo of compass was just on "overtime" a little while ago, and he was talking about how everybody with, you know, super low mortgage rate, they are holding on and that creates even more inventory

bottlenecks in terms of supply in the market, and that's the foundation for it, if you will you foundation, for this trade, to go higher >> makes a lot of sense. if you have a mortgage, you know, sub 3.5% -- >> why give it up? >> why give it up. that's become an asset in this environment. and that's added to the reason why these home builders trade as well as they do. somewhat counter intuitive sherwin-williams was talked about, let's talk about them probably trades 26 timesish, which is not ridiculous for the company, but technically, look at what it's done. huge move, traded down a couple times, held. just got an upgrade yesterday, 275 price target i think what you're going to see with some of the names, analysts will start playing catchup you're going to see price targets raised this is probably a stock you can own for a trade here for sure. >> so, sounds like you guys think this trade overall, or, you know, the momentum of the sector, can continue, but there could be another trade within this and that is rotating into the value areas of the housing

sector i mean, that's sort of the message that i'm getting >> i think the last three, four weeks, there has been a hint of this market broadening out i certainly don't want to ignore that what i would say about some of the builders, when you look at a lennar, dr horton, the move today looked a little blowoffy the last time we saw this type of, it was, call it early february and that was followed by a 15% drawdown in the names they went on to make new highs, but you can get corrections in trend. i'd watch two things here. watch the ten-year yield we're pushing right up against 380, 385 anything above 390 is a breakout that would be a very meaningful message for the home building stocks and second, remember the history of this group. they were very, very bad in '08, they were great in '01, so their trok track record in slowdowns is different. >> let's get diana here, she has more now with today's key housing data what it could mean for this space. diana, you are sort of going around here, you cover the sector very closely.

talk to us about this data, but also, you know, why we should be more optimistic, maybe, about this housing trade, or should we >> well, melissa, it's really a tale of two housing markets that we got in the data today, and that is the new home market versus the existing home market and the existing homes we saw. i'm going to have to disagree with tim even though we did see that first year over year decline o 0.2%, which is back dated three months, actually, we've seen three straight months of seasonally adjusted increases in home prices, and that's on the existing home side and the expectation is because we have such low supply in the market and still strong demand that those prices are going to still push higher again. we are only 2% off of that last june peak and s&p's kay schiller said they believe prices bottomed in january when we started this increase. >> when you look on the new home side, that's a completely different story, because the builders are benefits from all of this, and one number i loved in the new home builder data today was that there are now

twice as many homes that have been sold but not even started yet, as there were a year ago, so, that's just a tremendous backlog for the builders they did bring down prices about 7.5% from a year ago, but that's, you know, they're able to do that, they're doing incentives, buying down mortgage rates, that's how they're getting buyers in the door existing homes, you can't do that as much, because it's a supply and demand crunch >> so, the new home market looks really strong, with a huge backlog. in terms of existing homes, we saw the peak in june of last year and then it went down to january of this year, sort of recovered from there, i mean, do you think that this is the reset that jerome powell was talking about? remember that press conference when he was talking about, if you are, you know, a young home buyer out there, i would wait, there's going to be a reset coming >> yeah, a reset of 0.32% look, there were massive outlandish gains, 20% increases,

we are still up 45% in home prices from january of 2019. 45%. that's ridiculous. it had to pull back. but that doesn't mean that it was going to drop 20%. we're just coming back to sort of, remember, home prices generally historically go up about 4% a year. so, now we came back to maybe negative 0.2% or perhaps next month, we're going to see home prices flat. this is not some kind of crash in prices that people thought were going to reset the market and help wbuyers get back in in new home sales, these were may signed contracts if you looked at mortgage rates may was 6.5%, around there for two weeks, after two weeks, they shot up over 7%, and we still got this incredible home sales number so, that was with rates over 7%. they haven't moved much in the last couple weeks, around 6.9% and the builders keep saying, we heard lennar and kb say it, buyers are getting used to this new normal of rates. >> diana, thank you.

>> sure. >> diana olick dan? >> we're talking about lennar here, i mean, earnings are expected to be down 30% this year, ish, on sales down low single digits and margins are going to go from 27.5% last year to 23% this year you don't want to be buying a stock like this at a high like this at a valuation, i know ten times seems reasonable, but look at what's going on here. they're going to be below their 2021 earnings levels and again, the rates, the s supply/demand thing, this is not the place to chase i like what chris is bringing up about the trades that could play catchup for other reasons. and the home depot one is interesting. relative performance, too low, is kind of interesting, so, those are the sorts of trades that make more sense >> i'm glad chris is on, because he said, you know, you can have corrections within bull markets. it's been a bull market for the home building stocks there's no denying that, but we're at a point, dan said it,

it felt a little blowoff topee today, which is why i said today in the call at 12:30, it felt a little stupid. when you see a pulte homes up $2.50, it makes you question i don't think there's anything wrong with exiting and looking for a better entry point i think you'll get that better entry point. to your question to diana, q quickly, that's the right question you remember jerome powell on his way off that podium said -- >> right there should be a reset. don't you think the fed is looking at this and thinking, there is no reset in the housing market right now and shouldn't that instill fear in us? >> look at what we've seen in some of these global rates the last couple weeks. uk yields have run away. on these home builders, watch the 50-day averages. they've ridden them the whole way up since last october, november i think if this -- any pullback causes something more serious, it's because those 50 days get violated also, just be mindful. what's been unusual about this move is, they've dave yalted from the regional banks. home builders and regional banks have historically moved in step

with each other. that's clearly broken down here. important distinction there. >> tim, your thoughts? you think jerome powell is looking at this, thinking the economy has cooled down enough for inflation to get under, you know, control here >> financial conditions are looser we all know that and i would just put it to -- it does get back to the fed and does get back to recession and you can't tell me housing prices don't go lower if we haven't hit a recession, or, if we think that the fed has sufficiently tightened rates enough to get to a 2% inflation target here, then i think housing's doing what it's supposed to do but again, i -- and i -- diana, appreciate her getting up in my grill, because, in fact, she's right. the stabilization in housing prices is -- is appropriate over the last couple months, but i -- i like at -- we're not 2008, but i look at -- you can't tell me housing wasn't in a bubble during covid and you can't tell me, essentially record low unemployment, that assuming that the fed's job is being, you

know, effectively carried out in the market, this is -- this is not where we go in housing prices and again, i don't -- i look at that housing price chart and i see it come down from 20% year over year growth to basically flat i'm not saying it's falling apart. i'm saying, that chart doesn't just stop at zero in my book >> remember all the european luxury stocks four, six, eight weeks ago, they were untouchable and thought about as untouchable. they've had 10%, 15%, 20% drawdown they are still in trend. doesn't mean they are bad secular stories, but things can get ahead of themselves. and i think that's the story here >> here's an interesting would you rather >> oh. >> i don't think i've ever paired these two together ever in the history of "fast money" in the history of "fast money" is very long itb or netflix >> oh. >> which are up roughly the same percentage year to date. this is just because they run -- it's not a pe thing, it's -- from here, guy -- >> where did you come up with that one >> i pulled it --

>> unscripted, folks >> out of thin air they are both up 40% i thought it was interesting >> netflix >> you wouldn't think netflix and itb would be up almost the same percent >> i'm play your reindeer game correctly, i won't say, can i go off the board, i'll say netflix, given what we just talked about. i think there's still some secular tailwinds for netflix. it hasn't had that blowoff top, where home builders got a little frothy >> are you going to give me -- >> i know you said you're pulling it out of thin air, but i can throw a dart at my main fact set screen that has 300 stocks and i could probably hit, you know, dozens that are up 40%. >> i'm sure, i'm not saying -- >> is that me getting up ifn yor grill? >> i don't care. >> yeah! >> i'm not against anybody being in my grill. >> i like it >> i'm not denying there are many stocks up 40% this year i just paired them -- >> what's interesting about your question, and i don't know if you want to spend time on it, is that -- as an investor, you have

lots of choices, right and so -- >> yes >> for instance, you would think that, you know, when interest rates started going higher, stocks like netflix selling off. this was about a year and a half ago, and now they just don't care about rates, but a sector like this, and to your point about keeping an eye on the ten-year, that might be the trigger to cause that 15% to 20% selloff, just tobring it back towards trend. >> might be worse for netflix, though, if you think about the story they are, but when you compare the two pictures, one is making new all-time highs and one is not i want to lean towards itb here. the longer term netflix chart, it starts to stall and fail. >> chris played the game correctly. >> he did. >> i know i did. >> dan, not so much. you want to give tim a shot? >> sure, tim what do you say? >> well, i am still long netflix, but i've been selling some over the last couple weeks because i see some of the things that chris is talking about in the chart, but i'm talking more really on the valuation, so i -- i'm going to play the game

correctly and say itb, but i hate my choices right now, mel, i'm sorry. i mean, i would like to have thrown a dart and come up -- >> you want to play off the board. pull up another stock that's up 40% and throw it at me i'll let you go. dispensation >> well -- so, you want one right now? >> yeah. >> ah -- let's go with -- delta airlines we're going to talk airlines >> nice. >> i'll leave it there i think industrials haven't performed and i think their valuations are a lot more defendable >> i don't -- that was actually amazing that he pulled up delta. it is up year to date 40%. >> that's what he does he's the ambassador. >> anyway. speaking of delta, wheels up for the stock. shares heading for the clouds as the airline holds its investor day. what the ceo had to say about a possible record quarter. the details next. plus, the real deal. why analysts are getting bullish on meta's reels product. how it is fueling the stock's highest price target on wall street don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready!

alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "fast money. delta airlines hitting its highest level in more than a

year after lifting its full-year profit forecast and touting a potential earnings record for the current quarter. the ceo speaking to phil lebeau this morning ahead of its investor day >> the demand that we're seeing today is even stronger and the value is even greater than we're seeing we're raising not only the full year, we're raising the second quarter. i think the second quarter's going to be our highest q-2 earnings in our history. coming just three years after the start of the pandemic, which is pretty incredible >> delta's raising zest mates for free cash flow this year, by almost a billion dollars $3 billion from over $2 billion, that's a huge increase tim, you own this one, as you mentioned before >> yeah, and i say this about airlines, too, some of the greats trading stocks in what's been a great chaeding market and delta is really only getting the benefit of reopening trade here and i'll let chris talk about the chart. but when you are up 15%, kind of mid teensish to your 2019 whatever you want to pick

acronym, and we know what they mean, so, revenue for available seat miles i can't do that without saying what it is, but this is a story where, with airlines, nothing like a good crisis to get them to reel in the excess and the inefficiency so, when they start talking about capacity holding the line, you start thinking as an investor, at least for now, there's disciplined in the airline sector and they saw god, because things got really nasty, and delta, of all of them, by the way, didn't leverage their balance sheet so, delta is the best, and they're the ones where you can talk about 2019, but the ev is more or less the same relative to their peers >> chris >> i think tim's right these are trading stocks they've been trading stocks. our whole careers, they've been trading stocks they're still trading stocks the preemptive move was the last four, five, six weeks, when delta and ual, they held their 200 in that pullback back in may. i think the gap the last several days is impressive i could get you probably 60 on delta, that's the 2019 highs, i

could get you 70 on ual. that's the better chart coming out of the base. even, dare i say, southwest maybe hinting at a turn here but remember, these are trading vehicles these are at the center of the storm three years ago. when you're in the center of the storm, you remain trading stocks, not investments for the next number of years that follow look at the banks coming out of '09. there were times to make money, but they weren't investments, they were trades >> this was somebody's final trade last night, guy. >> sorry i didn't know you were looking at me. you play poker. >> i do. >> card game everybody's got a tell 386 was on the set and dan, myself, 386 and tim. you see, romming rolling your e- >> i'm not rolling -- >> i have a place to go with this there was negative news out on delta, in early may. the stock actually closed higher that day collectively, we said, that's a tell stocks should have gotten crushed, it did not m and it's

broken through, probably a 2 1/2, 3-year downtrend. i'll get you to 49, the highest in april 2021. that's where it probably tops out in the short-term. >> think about how ccl and the cruises traded yesterday they couldn't close it on the lows and then today makes up the whole move, right? there's wisdom in this price action stuff that we all look at and the price action the last two days is pretty important. here's what's coming up next on "fast money." reel in our call of the day. why analysts are poking meta for a big move higher. and how reels is driving the action the details next plus, markets on pace to put in a banner first half but can stocks continue their run through the next six months of the year? what the technicals are saying about the market's next move you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. meta rising more than 3% today after citi saw a strong repound ahead for the company's advertising. this on the heels of just a huge runup in the past year dan? >> it's up 200%. you couldn't give it away at $88, it's 288now i have tremendous respect for the job of being a fundamental analyst, it's a hard job, and names like these, where some people don't feel like valuations, you try to do your fundamental work but they are just chasing their tails on all of this stuff i don't find it particularly

interesting here, and here's a company that lost 80% of its value from the time they changed their name to meta and their focus, and now, they have a chatbot and that was worth $300 billion in this a.i. thing this year and, you know, chatbots have been around for awhile, people >> i'm surprised that in this sort of, you know, price target raise that there was not a mention, really, of a.i. that the real driver of this was the ad load on reels which seemed like a good sign as opposed -- >> which is actually core facebook if carter worth were here -- >> we have chris >> i know. i'm going to bring up chris in a second i will point out that, and chris knows this, we just filled a gap today from a level we made back in january of 2022 we created a gap to the downside i didn't think it would be filled for foreseeable feature and here we are 18 months or so later filling it in. this is a very logical place, i think, for this stock to sort of stall out, given the run that dan just said.

they report earnings, i'm going to say end of july, so, there's some time. i don't know again, this is also getting a little frothy to me, as well >> it was 289, was the level, hit it today, backed off of it four times this year, you have gone back to the 50-day, i think that's a reasonable call here, 50-day is 30 bucks lower particularly when you look at the analyst ratings here, all the buys have come in recently you're back up to 80% of analysts have a buy on this stock. that was 40%, 50% on the start of the year. people have chased here. don't be surprised if this stalls >> it stalls, but still in a pods positive trend >> the trend is up you can say that about a lot of tech those aren't big moves, but when they are this extended, that could ruin a quarter you want to be mindful of that here >> tim >> i think you stay long this is one of these ones where it's -- you know, whatever the valuation didn't make sense on the way down, so, maybe it

shouldn't make sense on the way up, but you're not holding your nose on the valuation. the reels business didn't exist like this a few years ago. let's be clear and the call out of citi is a very different business. people are talking about this growth that actually facebook gets -- should get more credit than anybody ad revenues going up 14%, i've said before, i think a lot of the media companies were punished first, and they asked questions later, and i think there is some cyclicality here to at least see where we are in terms of the advertiser market that's part of why i think the upgrades are coming. >> reels growth -- reels has taken over instagram it really has. the blue page is gone, instagram used to be the thing where you post the picture, so, now it's just all reels so, they are chasing tiktok here and to use the term that is just so essential to these business models, these social platforms have been very e femme roll.

the fact that 90% of what goes on instagram is reels doesn't make me want to buy this thing this is, you know, up 250% after it lost 80% from the time that they did that other big pivot so, to me, i think, again, i think you are chasing your tail. i'm not talking about you, because i know you have been on this thing i bought this thing last fall when it was absolutely washed up this doesn't make a lot of sense to me, because i think at some point, they're going to be forced to change instagram back to something that looks a bit more like instagram and not tiktok >> all right. coming up, in the final days of trading for the first half of the year, but can stocks keep the rally going? what the technicals say about the market's next move next. plus, microen earnings tomorrow can the semi surge continue? how to play that one, when "fast money" returns. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks rallying today in the final week of the first half of

trading. the dow jumping 200 points, breaking a six-day losing streak tech leads the gains speaking of tech, apple hitting yet another all-time high during the session. getting just a stone's throw away from $3 trillion market cap. shares of walgreens dropping nearly 10% missing on earnings and lowering full-year guidance shares of cvs falling in sympathy and regeneron dropping after the fda rejected a high dose version of its macular degeneration treatment. that stock is down nearly 9% afterhours. well, it's been a strong start to the year, but as we look to wrap up the first half, what can we expect in the second half of the year chris brought some charts, chris. >> yeah, we brought a couple charts to talk about maybe what's in store the second half of the year. it's been an unusual first six months in the context of, while there's a lot that looks very early cycle, whether that's discretionary or industrials or home builders, there's a lot that suggests we're still in the

same old cycle so, we went back and looked, what are the largest rallies ever with an inverted curve. 1979, 30% rally with inverted curve, and mid '06 to mid '07, a period we remember well, a 30% rally with an inverted curve 30% on last october's low gets you about 4500, 50 you look at that at the top end of the range here. when you go chart by chart here, i think the bright spot, at least recently, to someenter th fold, is the inclusion of the transports they had basically been an absent we just talked about the airlines, some of the trucks have woken up here i think on balance, the improvement of transports is certainly welcome. and maybe it's the fact that crude continues to trade so poorly, as the reason we're getting airlines and transports an consumer involved here, because the crude chart looks terrible i think that's a big missing piece of kind of the new cycle,

secular bull story typically crude's involved on that this is the fifth time that oil's testing this $65, $67 range. i don't know if many quintuple bottoms in my career, so, my guess is, that does not hold two things we can kind of watch. one is credit. it quietly has not kept pace with equities the last few weeks here jnk is what we're looking at here actually closed below the 200-day moving average as a barometer moving forward, as dan said earlier, the banks have largely not been involved here and the brokers in particular. not many examples of a market going up much further when goldman and morgan stanley and bank of america are not involved here's the goldman chart certainly one of the softer ones there. so, there's certainly things to like, but we got to be mindful, curve, oil, credit, looks a little bit more end of cycle than new cycle >> so, in the past 30% rallies

in '79 and '05 -- >> mid '06 to '07. >> did we have all of these things working or were there things that didn't work? >> it's never a puzzle that fits together perfectly you think we've been doing this long enough to know. what i remember so distinctly, particularly in spring and summer of '07, was how disparate the world words were at the same time, you were losing stuff like housing and consumer it reminds me a couple weeks ago with that payroll report we did 300 on the payroll, negative 300 on the household survey you actually tend to see that later cycle, so, it feels familiar in that respect >> funny he mentioned '06-'07. we started doing this show in '07, as you know, and some of the dialogue was equally very hard to figure out, a lot of cross currents, just like we are

seeing now this yield curve, by the way, now inverted for 15 or so months, at levels we haven't seen in 40-odd years, people will say it's not a big deal this time -- i couldn't disagree with that more i think it's a bigger deal this time, because the move from 110, down to 40, it's not stopping here and at a certain point, i believe, that's going to effect the credit markets in the form of jnk and the equity markets. >> i think the mistake here would be thinking a curve that steepens from here is bullish. the steepening of the curve is game over, right the curve steepens because short rates fall why do short rates fall? the economy is slowing rates fall out of the bottom so, i would be careful with this idea that, oh, we really want the curve to steepen -- we can survive in this purgatory. the end of a cycle can persist, we saw that in '98 to 2000 a steeper curve would be a

problem. tim? >> i guess, you know, the way the market has moved, it's all moved slowly in terms of the sequences of what we've been expecting after a pandemic and unprecedented amount of stimulus and balance sheet from the government thrown at it. it's a long way of saying, i kind of agree with the rhetoric here i just think that the market we have isn't ready to roll over and turn into the 2008 from the '06-'07 which is not what chris is saying, by the way. i just think -- i look at -- we've got some inflation numbers that aren't really great on core, but the headlines and the scary inflation are probably going to be out of the way at least for the next month or so we have a fed at the end of the month, we've got a month of july that historically is one of the best months of the year. you've got semis that don't look like they're giving up their relative performance to the s&p right now. those are the things as i'm looking at the markets, next four to six weeks, i don't think the game's over. i agree with everybody that i think the macro does not look

good and the leading indicators are not turning positive it's just not time >> yeah, to stick with chris's theme, here's the thing, right so, like, if you think about what he just said about crude and you think about what he just said about the jobs market, i mean, that is really stagflationary in a way, right so, the question is, to guy's point about, you know, the -- we're at 1% in the 2810, they stayed inverted for awhile, but it doesn't seem to be in end in sight, and to your point about a resteepening, that would say something about the economy. and if it is a stagflationary economy, that will not be kind to equity valuations that are pushing levels that are above the ten-year average right now, so, to me -- it is a confusing time, but i think you are to start thinking about things in h and maybe because crude is lower, or lumber is at 52-week lows and that's great for home builders, maybe it is saying something about a different

economic environment that we're going to be in, and stocks don't really seem priced for something like that. >> it's an odd dynamic where we know wages are sticky and the core is sticky as headline falls, does it inhibit producers from passing on cost? and is that the next weakness in margins that might be in front of us here i think that's something to think about. the bond market might give us some clues there it may already be. but when i look at the moves we've seen in some european short rates over the last couple weeks, uk twos are through their highs from last fall, norwegian, sweden, aussie, cat. those are some very big messages coming from the bond market and short rates here i think it would be a stretch to see the fed is done. >> so, what would the check back level be >> so, 50-day's been good support since the march banking crisis you look to the 50-day first on s&p, anything above that -- >> which is? >> let's call it 4250. >> okay. >> rounding error, maybe 4255 after today. it's ascending

any checkback to that, i think, is orderly you start talking underneath, then you raise the question, is something changing tim's right, we have seasonality through about mid-july, then you start to lose that. coming up, micron earnings on deck. options traders are plugging in. how they are playing the semi stock next. cnbc is celebrating pride month in june. here's pfizer's chief corporate affairs officer. >> on my journey, i was very fortunate to come out early when i was in my 20s, and it has given me a lifetime to build true, deep, authentic relationships based on honesty and truth. we can never stop celebrating and honoring pride month the important rights that we've won, those that i hold dear. the ability to be married, to have adopted a child, cannot be taken for granted. and we need to think about that at least once a year our heritage is ingrained in our skin.

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was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com welcome back. micron risingafter citi reiterated its buy call. still, options traders are

betting that could turn around when the company reports earnings after the bell tomorrow mike khouw >> micron right now, options market implying a move of 6% after they report earnings that's in line with the average over the last eight reported quarters traded 1.7 times its average daily call volume. and the busiest contract were the july 73 calls. 9,400 of those trading opening buyers betting 92 cents a contract that the stock could rise more than 10% by july expiration >> chris >> you know, it's been a laggard in the group it reminds me a little bit of intel from that perspective. the only time intel works is when you're at the end of a move micron looks similar >> what's the since between a laggard and a catchup trade? >> you look at the strength you've seen in the semis for six, seven, eight months now, and this one has decided not to participate at all, so -- makes you wonder also, has backed off the highs here the last four, five days.

has not kept pace. quietly, also, amd has done 20% from the high. not sure everyone's noted that >> well, this guy. >> there's some -- >> a couple times. >> thanks for watching >> there's some b bifurcation going in the group >> but why is this different >> i think you are 100% right in bringing that up and you have to make -- sometimes, and this is important, certain stocks lag for -- intel, for example, lags for a reason people will try to use it as a catchup trade until the rug gets pulled out from under. so, you have to understand what you're getting into at four. i'm not trying to shirk your question, it's a great question, but understand that if these stocks haven't behaved well at a broader tape and a sector that's done well, there's a reason for it >> right >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30

p.m. eastern time. after the break, a real trip psychedelic therapy the next cannabis how medicinal mushrooms ar entering the main stream and how can you invest, when "fast ne rurns good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

welcome back to "fast money. wall street is making big bets that psychedelic drugs could soon go main stream as treatments for mental health millions being poured into research on the psychedelic assisted therapies it could grow faster than the cannabis market. the market valuation could reach nearly $12 billion by 2029 here to weigh in on the progress is michael mullett, chief benefit officer of public benefit corporation. could see fda approval as early as next year great to have you with us. just a big conference in colorado last week about this, so, there's a lot of interest. how far is it from becoming, you know, the next cannabis, in your view >> yeah, first of all,

appreciate you having me, melissa. this is a really exciting time denver was a really exciting conference, with over 12,000 people in attendance i think the biggest takeaway is over half of those people in attendance were medicaled pro providers. they were physicians and therapists looking to apply psychedelics to their tool box, to help people with very significant mental health conditions like ptsd so, it's been a really exciting time >> your background is from traditional pharma, are you getting the sense that big pharma is going to join in on the action, or is it going to be like in the cannabis industry, the territory of upstarts, of other companies out there that exist now? >> yeah, you know, i think that maybe a few things i think the approach for psychedelics and psychedelic-assisted therapies is a bit different than cannabis a good thing that we like to point to especially in this space are launches from providers like jansen, bravado,

or gw pharma, which is now jazz, with epidilects, which are medications delivered in the health care system and these assisted therapies will all be provided in the health care system so, we see more parallels in the farm suit call space for rollout an sensitivities >> michael, the journal had an article today said the drugs that power silicon valley, talking about lsd, magic mushrooms. the first line of this article states, elon musk tastes ketamine is the stigma gone from these drugs? like, it seems like -- these are, like, serious drugs they were, like -- >> schedule one drugs. >> schedule one drugs. that struck me, before i knew you were going to be on today, i read that article and i was kind of floored >> yeah, i think the stigma is

certainly going away you know, and of course, because there's so much data one of the really exciting points that i always like to point out to people is that, you know, the fda presented in march a slide that showed the number of clinical papers that have been delivered on the space of psychedelics, over the last few years, and it is remarkable, this uptick. so, as the science develops, as the science evolves, so, too, go with it. all of the public perception, so, where we stand in clinical trials today, we've completed two phase three studies, and are ready to develop an approval process with the fda, we will be submitting mdna-assisted therapy for the use in ptsd in the fall with approval as early as next year so, i think the data will leap >> so, what are some of the other use cases for this potentially? >> well, i think, first of all, ptsd is a huge one it effects 80 million people in the united states today.

veterans, women. i think the next disorders, especially for mdma can be things that are focused in trauma mdma helps people to do is actually address root cause trauma as opposed to masking symptoms it's really important to look at trauma-informed diseases or mental health conditions >> michael, thank you so much for joining us >> really appreciate it. >> michael mullette. up next, final trades. th eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

time for the final trade tim seymour? tim seymour? tim? all right, he can't hear me. or he's ignoring me. chris? >> longpark er hannifin. stay there >> dan >> great question by you, that, the laggard thing. xlv feels like a laggard a lot of stocks are working well in there >> we have tim back or no? >> tim, are you back >> charles van duren, sequestered. i could say mean things about

him, he wouldn't know. >> what would you say? >> i wouldn't say anything he's a handsome man. you ever see the guy drum? he's a genius. his vocals are tremendous. >> look at him >> he has no idea. >> ask now, ask how, ask sherwin-williams, mels >> thank you for wchating.