norovirus this year affect 2g,000 passengers and crew >> that's just a hiccup now, right? when somebody sneezed you were like get out of my sight >> if i ever go, i'll get it >> i hope not. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm scott wapner two big tech stocks on the move today, apple on the doorstep of history again, hitting $3 trillion in market cap, trying to, anyway and nvidia, one of this year's biggest winner, under pressure on reports of possible new export restrictions to china we are following both big stories and asking just how much of this rally is now hanging on those two closely followed and widely held names. we'll ask big technology's alex

kantrowitz stocks mostly lower most of the day, health care and defense names dragging the major averages lower there's the s&p, a modest loser. the nasdaq, take a look at that, trying to buck the trend we'll see if it can over this final stretch. our "talk of the tape," the rally, the second half, and whether tech can continue to carry stocks higher. the founder of big tech technology and a cnbc contributor joins us right now apple on the doorstep again. isond time going to be the charm for the $3 trillion stock? >> feels like it should, right, because the last time apple reached $3 trillion, there were things on the horizon that looked really menacing, supply chain issues we were on the door stem of omicron or in the thick of it. inflation was about to get started. rate raises were coming. we've been through all that, so we know what's in store for the market the fact that the company has

been through that and is about to hit $3 trillion again, it's more sustainable >> you suggest the pressure is on because it's coming off two quarters continue second live the of sales declines. if you're going to get three and hold the line, so to speak, you have to reverse that, didn't you? >> yes the fact that this thing is going to $3 trillion after a couple quarters of sales declines and another one on the horizon, it boggles the mind why is this happening? okay $98 billion in share buyback helped we have to see either a reversal of the sales decline or more share buybacks do you want to commit to doing $90 million of share buybacks every year in order to keep your stock price where it is? i don't think that's where you want to be if you're company like apple >> you need to reversened and yu kind of have but continually the decline in iphone sales and the sales growth, which was down 8.2% in the first quarter of 2023 it rebounded up 1.5% in the

second quarter of 2023 we need to keep going in that direction, though. >> absolutely. i'm excited for the 15th i think for the first time we might see usbc charging as opposed to the traditional apple charger. maybe that's the compelling event. maybe they continue to expand their island and all of a sudden people want to upgrade i think this iphone 15 will show some strength. >> what about the time frame new iphone, september quarter. that's when they put all the money on the line for the september quarter which may be happening as the economy has taken a bit of a spill, some would suggest. that's going to have an impact on a company that's trying to sell $1,000 phones >> but it also feels apple is recession proof. we have a winners and losers economy, and apple sells a lot of iphones but to a lot of people that don't seem to feel the shocks the way the rest of the economy is i think they'll be able to continue the momentum in iphone. they have a good product, maybe it takes a little bit of a hit,

but i don't think that's a serious issue. >> appropriately named company, big technology founder because a big technology kind of year for stocks are you surprised by what you've seen, and do you think it can continue >> i'm surprised i think the main thing that's driving this is the ai narrative, which came out of nowhere. that's a big part of it. the other thing is we've had the stock buybacks if you have this financial that nip l -- manipulation and a big narrative that can propel companies when the odds are stacked against, can it keep going? why not? it seems like these factors will continue to be in play we'll also have the fed -- of course we're hearing now maybe a couple more rate raises. but once they pause, you expect that these companies, even though it's baked in a little bit, but it will start ripping. >> you mentioned the ai, in your words, coming out of nowhere, the narrative. what should we make of that? it comes out of nowhere but

takes the market by storm. everybody is talking about ai. it's tloed a lot of incredible gains we've seen thus far. does it make you nervous it seemingly came out of nowhere? maybe it didn't, but the market seems to have noticed it all at once >> it's a little too frothy for my liking. the generative ai narrative came out of nowhere companies across the economy -- and we've been talking about major advances since 2015, so it's not like, you know, all of a sudden it's here but you see nvidia going up 180% on the year on the strength of ai i think generative ai has created for a lot of people this iphone moment. but we haven't seen the product. if you think about how much the narrative has bolstered these companies, is there going to come a point when the market says when's the rubber going to meet the road, where is that

iphone for us? if that happens, we can see a drawback based off the enthusiasm we've had to this point monopoly. >> what's your input for nvidia? you mentioned the gain it's had year to date it's been the ai stock of the year i think we can say that when the company came out and gave the revenue guidance it did. it blew everybody away analysts themselves suggest i don't even know how to model this company at the present time, so i'm pressed to say what it can do from here because i just don't know. >> even nvidia itself is probably shocked at the valuation that they have on the company. i mean, they're expected to do $11 billion in sales next quarter. so for comparison, amd did five or six billion in the most recent xwaurt quarter so maybe double the sales but five times the market cap they're not the same company, but is this company really five times what amd is? i don't think every company is

going to go out and train their own models on nvidia chips of course investors needed to find somewhere to put their money when they want to invest the ai trades and they went to nvidia, but there will be other places they'll look for. they'll try to diversify and some will take profits >> people say it's a bubble, the whole ai space, what's your response to that >> i would say probably not. i'm a believer in generative ai. i think it can have real impact. but do i think there's some probability that a lot of this enthusiasm and froth that we're seeing, especially in this first half, can go away as people try to say what are those products that i can use now that i can talk to computers and they can talk back, now that they can draw pictures and make up audio and video? if people start asking those questions and don't have real answers, we'll see a drop. i don't think bubble the word has been used, effervescence.

>> it's easy to say this is 1999 all over again that's been sort of the easiest way to -- if you're trying to throw cold water, oh, this is '99. others suggest it's '95 or that period of time, like the earliest part of when we started to get our arms around what the internet could truly be. is that essentially what you would subscribe to as well >> i hear these comparisons to '95 and '99 and they don't fully compute to me. that's the moment where the internet was beginning to take off for consumers. we have an established internet. we have search this is just a different way to search i think it just puts a lot of weight on this space to say it's '95 or compare it to '99 ultimately, it's cliche, but i look at it as 2023 we have to think about this in the context of the economy we have, not the economy of the past it's not the birth of the internet >> we're not used to seeing the gains in some of these stocks year to date whether it's nvidia

or whatever else that has risen so dramatically and their whole -- the way of modeling these companies has become so difficult. kristina partsinevelos is here with a closer look at nvidia there is some news today the stock is trying to shrug it off, and you can see the interday chart it's interesting. >> to your point when there was a meeting with the cfo at the webinar, the stock price came off the earlier lows, down about 3% earlier today the cfo downplayed the effect of potential restrictions at this webinar. she said they wouldn't have an immediate material impact to financial earnings given the strength of their products eve as china contributes about 25% of total data center revenues according to her. since they aren't set in stone, it's tough to estimate the financial impact previously nvidia warned there

could be $400 million in revenue impacted in the quarter. analysts expect similar numbers this time around, but nothing in stone. like you said, shrugging it off. down 3% earlier, now 2%. >> you've read the same analyst reports i have today i'm assuming that seem s to be the general take from the analysts who were looking at this company, that this is much ado about nothing, at least not yet >> the bullish theme is intact why is because of the ai hype they believe that demand for the gpu units coming from nvidia will offset any type of declines coming from china. >> thank you kristina partsinevelos alicia levine is with us as we expand our conversation thinking about what all this will do for the second half of the year. when you look at the gains in tech, does it have the momentum to keep going? and the importance that it does. >> it's very important for the rest of the year, but the kind of linear progression we've seen is unlikely to continue from here. >> you mean they won't be up

another 100 points >> you can see by the chart. it's a vertical line that doesn't continue. but the sense of tech being the center of the trade is very important for further gains for the rest of the year to alex's point here, we've moved far quickly. as you know, the anticipation of an i benflection of growth can turbocharge stocks that's what we've seen we have to see some sort of reality based on what's happening here i don't think this is the '99 bubble here because i think this is a structural change not entirely clear who exactly the winners are. >> it isn't? isn't that what this is all about? >> yes >> the purest of pure players are the ones who have seen the biggest gains. we might not know yet about the so-called second and third tier. >> we may not know that. i'd say this -- there is a second derivative trade coming, which are the industries and companies that are going to harness this technology and

change their growth models i think that's the great next investment opportunity whether it's health care, discovery, think about what ai is going to do there, to be able to do things quicker, smarter, more efficiently, and with more productivity so i think if you missed the trade here because you couldn't get in, because every day these stocks were up and you were waiting for the moment and it didn't happen, i think there's a second derivative for various industries >> good points you make. what do you make of that the idea we need to change the way we're thinking about many different sectors of the market, not just the magnificent seven we've come to call these names >> that computes to me we have this inflection point but in the background, this stuff was going on years before. take alphabet. within deep mine, they were decoding how to play this game go with ai, decoding proteins before this mass moment of enthusiasm came in

if you bought the stock before this year, you were getting in on that. now we're seeing this inflection point. everyone is trying to figure out a way to put their money to work in the ai trade. the question is, like, are you coming in too late >> do you feel like the risk/reward is better as we make the turn to the second half? because there are many people who would suggest it's not if anything, it's gotten worse >> right. >> because you've had this big move in the market >> up 23 fers from the blows, so how can there be less risk going forward? i'd say there's less fundamental risk, meaning if you have a pullback, you're unlikely to ever see that 3,500 point again, or maybe 3,800 again when you think about what's the asymmetric risk to the downside, it's just not as terrifying as it was six months ago because, although it looks like we're going to have a slowdown within the next 12 months, everyone's been wrong, we've been surprised as well, face it we thought we were headed to a

recession. when you see housing inflect from the bottom and actually have higher rates cause a better housing market, you have to ask yourself, you know, maybe all these traditional macro ways of looking at the world we're in today are not making sense and just look at the companies if they're growing earnings and there are many companies that went through their recession, the industrials have gone through it, tech has gone through it these companies are coming out of it. in the end, it's the earnings. i'd say the macro risk appeared to be less and therefore the downside risks are less. >> i'll tell you who's missed it, too, in sort of projecting where the economy was likely to be now is the fed itself as much you heard from sara's conversation today with the chair over in portugal, i know they're surprised as to how resilient the labor market has been he led us to believe as much, which is one of the reasons why he said we're not done yet >> we believe there's more

restriction coming my colleagues and i wrote down two more additional rate hikes the median was quite a strong majority, two or more rate hikes. the reason for that was if you look at the data over the last quarter, you see stronger than expected growth, a tighter than expected labor market, and higher than expected inflation that tells us that, although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough. >> so maybe the market doesn't care >> not at all. let's remind everybody that the two-year moved 100 basis points yield in three months and tech went straight up in the teeth of that last year, that's exactly what caused the tech breakdown, which was the rise in two-year yields. the market just sees the end of the cycle, whether it's one more hike or two more hikes it's not another 200 basis points in the end, that's -- anticipating the end of it >> does it not care until it does or just it doesn't care at all

from this point because it knows we're near the end of the road who cares if we're one stop away, one rest stop away we're near the end of the road >> i think the 10-year yield if it gets to 4% and kind of banging on the door there, that could be a wake-up moment for the market won't care until it does if there's a sense the 10-year has peaked nld it will be easier on valuations going forward, that's the one thing that maybe could drive the market on a fundamental basis, when you look at growth and inflation and rates and put it all together, that would be the fundamental thing that could drive the market lower over a 4% yield >> last comment. you had a panel of essentially hawks today with sara, and rates go down, the market yawns, and tech is managing, the nasdaq higher by some 15 points a modest gain, but nonetheless that's an interesting dynamic that's playing out maybe that continues if it does, if rates don't rise

more dramatically, does that essentially keep the tech trade on >> yeah, i think it does the one thing i worry about is geopolitical risk. we talk about nvidia's skyrocketing share price, and today we get news that we might have the commerce department limiting its ability to do business in china. by the way, this was a chip built specifically to get into china, which is the one the commerce department might be ta targeting. the world is pretty turbulent right now. my focus shifts from what the fed is going to do to geopolitics. >> appreciate it let's get to our "twitter question of the day. will apple hit 200 bucks a share before the end of july in the clock is ticking the results are coming up later on in the hour we're just getting started up next, bracing for serious downside, evercore's founder is with us. roger altman will explain what he thinks the fed's next move

might be

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i think there's a significant probability there will be a downturn as well not to me the most likely case i was thinking of even, you know, a recession. to me it's not the most likely case but it's certainly possible and of course many forecasters predict that >> that was fed chair jay powell earlier today with our sara eisen in portugal at a monetary conference sharing his outlook

for the u.s. economy our next guest believes a recession is still in the cards. let's bring in roger altman, evercore founder and senior chairman welcome in nice to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> why do you differ with the fed chair? >> well, if you look historically and you look, for example, at 1989 and then 2006, you see the yield curve inverted that took 18 months from the moment of inversion for us to see a recession. and that's the dynamic that our firm at least thinks and our economics department, evercore isi, a good one, is the more likely scenario because monetary policy operates with such a lag. now, i agree entirely that it looks about 50/50. there are some very smart

people, chairman powell just in your clip referred to this, who think we won't have a recession and then some very smart people who think we will. but to me, the more likelihood is a moderate recession. you can look at the yield curve. you can look at small business confidence index, you can look at so many data points which are pointing downward, the various special surveys that evercore does, company surveys, especially the trucking survey, which is right around recession levels, and correlates most closely to gdp so the data is mixed, and the jury is out. but i think a moderate recession towards the end of the year is a little more likely than not. >> have you considered the idea,

roger, that maybe we're looking at this all wrong and that none of us have a great handle on the disruptive nature of the pandemic and the amount of stimulus that was put into the system and what it means to the way that the economy is reacting and you need to throw all of the textbooks, so to speak, out the window i think it's fair to say that the fed perhaps has misjudged the way that the economy, particularly the laibor market, was going to be on the backside of the pandemic and for that matter what their own policy, even with lags, would mean today. have you thought about that? >> yes and i think there is a lot to that number one, this inflation surge was really caused by the pandemic we could talk about that, but i believe it was and i think most people do. secondly, up still $500 billion or so of excess personal savings as a result of the pandemic.

you have perhaps some labor hoarding going on by employers on pandemic-related factors and how hard it's been to find workers. so, yes, i think there's quite a bit to that. but i don't think it necessarily means presto, we're not going to have a recession, because we've seen the -- you know, the steepest hikes in monetary policy in 40-something years and, again, looking at history, it would be too soon for them to have had their full effect now six months from now, different story. >> powell said today, as i'm sure you heard, we believe there's more restriction coming, alluding to the fact that they're not done i'm curious as to what you make of the fact that the market listens to all of that and says, okay, bring it on. it doesn't seem to have much reaction >> well, the stock market has been remarkably resilient. you know, we all know the s&p

500 has had a very good year the nasdaq an even better yoor and if you just look at the headline numbers on the market, you say to yourself, it doesn't see a recession. but, you know, the stock market, we all know, is fickle, and if i knew precisely what the market was doing, scott, you and i could be phoning this in from my yacht, but i don't know, and there is no yacht. but i don't think today's market is really indicative of whether at the end of 2023 we'll see softening business conditions and a moderate recession that's because stocks are resilient today doesn't tell me at the end of the year we won't have a recession i think that latter date is too far off for markets to be reacting to yet. >> i want to ask you another question about something i know you think about, and that's deal flow and when you think m&a will pick up again and whether you think this administration is too

negative on deals, particularly the ftc and the makeup and the person who's leading it. amid a report yesterday, roger, that the ftc and the doj are prepared to seek more data on prior mergers and labor impacts, that they could propose changes to paper work just to make what already feel like a big hurdle even higher. >> the first part of your question, activity levels from an m&a point of view, and i mean planning and thinking, activity levels are pretty good, although volume itself, you know, announced transactions year to date is down a lot from last year, down 30% to 50% depending on your measure, whether you're looking at dollars or number of transactions and so forth. the second part of your question, there's no doubt that the ftc and the justice department have taken an entirely different approach than we've seen in many, many, many

years, over the last 2 1/2 years of the biden administration. and it's a much, much more restrictive approach, as everybody knows. and, you know, they're winning some and losing some in court. it will be very interesting to see, and we're not involved in this, what happens in just a few days in terms of the closing date on microsoft activision and whether the fths c gets a stay n that to prevent the closing or whether it doesn't that's probably the biggest test for the ftc so far but they are showing their true colors jonathan cantor and lena kahn. we know those colors they don't favor mergers generally, and they're going to do whatever they can to try to prevent them. >> have they gone too far? do you personally think they've gone too far

you're a well-known and former high-ranking official in a democratic administration. so what would you think about that >> i think they are too zealous on this, yes i do but i don't expect them to make a turn i don't expect them to change. i think they see themselves on a mission, on a crusade, and as long as they hold these positions, that crusade will be on i don't see any changes in it. >> roger, i appreciate your time >> thank you >> that's roger altman joining us on "closing bell. up next, break do you think the banks. we're just about an hour away from another big event, the stress test results hitting the banks. mike mayo is standing by and all month long cnbc is celebrating pride, sharing stories of corporate leaders with you sixth street partner and vice chairman marty chavez.

>> people often tell me, marty, you're such a pioneer on wall street and i would say i don't see myself that way. i do see myself as somebody who's just myself. and i always felt that when i first came out to my interview in 1993, i came out in that interview just because that's how i did it. and i was out in silicon valley and saw no point in going back into the closet. so authenticity it's a lot of wasted time to pretend to be something that you are not.

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whose resumes on indeed you can find us in big cities and small towns across the us, where our focus is to always support the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank. welcome back the federal reserve set to release the results of its annual bank stress test in just about an hour from now, getting a look into the health of the

nation's biggest banks following the collapse of three regional banks this year. mike mayo, wells fargo, good to see you. what are you expecting any surprises? >> well, i want to put this in context. we may be approaching a tsunami of bank regulatory changes over the summer, and this would be the first of three waves so this fed stress test can increase the buffers for capital and how much banks can buy back in stock, but after this, you also have the international committee resetting standards for the largest global banks, and thenyou have vice chair barra at the fed with new rules to post to silicon valley. this is the first of three waves. that's my preamble having said that, i love the fed's stress test and i hate the fed's stress test. what i love about it this is one of the toughest tests yet. we're talking about a 9% drop, peak to trough, in gdp, 10%

unemployment, and a 40% to 45% decline in housing, commercial real estate and stocks after the fed assumes that for the largest banks, they should still have enough capital left over not only to avoid capital raises, avoid dividend cuts, but to have 5% dividend growth this year, and for the largest banks still buy back stock, albeit half the price of prior years. >> you just said -- you laid out in your self-described preamble what sound to me like a more onerous regulatory environment but then you just pivot and suggest that it's still good for the banks. >> i have a love/hate relationship with this you got the love side. the hate side is this fed stress test, it is and always has been a black box. the banks literally do not know the cost of goods sold until after the fact in an hour from now, we'll get some data saying how much different categories are hit,

commercial real estate, housing, credit cards, and the coast might be more than the banks originally expected. i don't like the black box element. i also don't love the mechanistic aspect to this last year bank of america was assumed to have 20% higher expenses in a recession, even though 20% of their head count is comps and things like that. but the issue is cumulative effect you take the buffers from the fed stress test to the higher capital, the international committee for the higher capital, vice chair barr at the fed for higher capital >> those sound like three negative ps. >> those are concerns. so the risk is that this could lead to a credit crunch, and you're already seeing banks talk about shrinking balance sheets or what they call rwa diet, reducing assets or more most

likely more business pushed off to the unrelated shadow banks. you're already seeing banks delever balance sheets, selling off assets so i love the stress test because it ensures the largest banks are resilient. i love the largest banks the best jpmorgan seems to get better day by day on the other hand, the regional banks, the cumulative effect with regulatory changes, it could change this could be the equivalent of a 100. foot wave for the smaller banks. >> financials as a sector on the s&p down 4.25% year to date. do i have any reason to believe as an investor that will change over the next six months >> well, i think the market's braced for a tsunami when it comes to regulatory and interest rates and recession. and i don't think you're going to get all of those three things happening. so when you talk about regional banks, they do have major

business model changes when you're talking about jpmorgan and citi group and the largest banks, you could say go big or go home because they are not having these tsunami-type changes. i understand that. but you would think if the alleged recession is being pushed further and further and further down the road by those who watch the economy that closely, that at some point, that would be reflected in bank stocks it hasn't necessarily happened i'm curious as to why and when it will. >> well, i do think that the bank stocks reflect a kitchen sink and more, at least the largest banks. they reflect a bank crisis discount, a bank inflation discount, and a bank regulatory change discount. you're not getting all three, at least not for the largest banks. the idea of the bank crisis and more big bank failures i think is a thing of the past. now with oar talking on a normalized basis, banks trading

at less than half of the market p/e, a tech stock with a $3 trillion market cap today, apple on your show, meanwhile jpmorgan, best in class bank struggles with a $4 million market cap the largest tech company would be worth over seven times more than the next biggest bank i think the stock market as a whole will come back to the level of the banks or the banks back to the level of the market. >> mike mayo up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here as always with that. kristina >> air taxis and commercial space flights.

about 15 minutes away from the closing bell kristina partsinevelos has a look at the stocks she's watching at this moment. >> start with joby aviation, soaring. the stock is soaring 42% after it announced t's going to be launching air taxis. not necessarily with passengers just yet, but this is the latest news from the company, why it's soaring. the fact they got the green

light is adding to this name let's move on to the next company we are going to talk about. that's virgin galactic i teased that before the commercial break it's up about 8% right now that's because they are soaring ahead of their first commercial space flight, a three-man crew set to jet to technologic of space tomorrow from new mexico the excitement over the launch is causing this name to soar 8%. last but not least, a travel theme, robo taxis and, you know, space travel, cruise stocks continuing yesterday's rallies shares of carnival are up about 8.6%, almost 9% right now. norwegian jumping about 7.5% royal caribbean also up higher a little less than the rest but at 2%. there's strength in the travel sector these three names are currently trading at 52-week highs, which is why i had to bring them up on the screen you have lots of travel movement i'm excited about that robo

travel in the sky for joby we were all talking about it >> you seem very excited about it >> it's something different. talking about semis and everything else. every once in a while, it's niles to have something different. >> kristina, thank you kristina partsinevelos last chance to weigh in on our t twitter question will apple, on the doorstep of hitting $3 trillion in market cap, again hit 200 bucks before the end of july? that's the share price, not market cap, obviously. results after the break.

to the results of our twitter question, will apple hit 200 bucks a share before the end

of july? the majority of you said yes, it will better than 61%. up next, speaking of results, micron, their results out in o.t the metrics every investor needs to be watching that's just ahead. rk ze.dehe lot more insi t maeton

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sleepovers just aren't what they used to be. a house full of screens?ton. basically no hiccups? you guys have no idea how good you've got it. how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity.

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oppenheimer is getting more bullish on netflix and kristina partsinevelos is back to look ahead to micron earnings in overtime michael, it feels like the market today is taking a little bit of a rest, taking a look around, seeing what's what before the end of the week >> yeah. yesterday was a nice broad rally. we held on to most of it in terms of the indexes, but it doesn't necessarily feel like this period of cooling-off digestion is necessarily complete that started a week and a half ago up-and-down volume underneath the surface. you have that persistent bid in, you know, the favorites of the nasdaq, tesla and apple to the upside push today. i still feel as if there could be a little more of a reset lower just to kind of reload this market for a while, especially given the fact that it seems like we've gotten a pretty full embrace of the software landing scenario, brings up the possibility the next direction of surprise on

the macro front might not be positive >> alex sherman, netflix, another nasdaq stocks having a nice gain today, up some 3% as oppenheimer gets more bullish and more bullish than most in terms of a price target to 500 bucks. the average target is just below 4 pu 400. >> whiplash. in the pandemic it was a high-flying stock. last year the air came out with subscribe growth plateaued and investors kind of lost faith in the company. this year again another big roaring back for netflix this price target hike by oppenheimer is driven by two tailwinds. one, netflix in canada has a plan to eliminate its ad-free basic tier, $10 a month. the ad-supported tier of $6.99

has been so successful from average revenue per user basis, meaning if you add up the money it gets from subscriptions, $6.99, and the revenue from the advertisers, it's on par with its standard plan which costs $15.50 so you eliminate this, eliminate the basic tier, that will be billions of dollars in added revenue from all of those people that are switching over to either the ad-supported tier or the standard plan, and you're thinking about those tens of millions of customers now in this country and in canada that have been sharing their password for the last few years that password crackdown is coming now all of those people will need to spend revenue on net lick that they never have before the writers' strike, no end in sight there. netflix generates a lot of content internationally, and

that content is unaffected by the writers' strike, so net flick may pick up some subscribers that are canceling other services if the content becomes limited in the next few months >> minke, apple, as you said, i nv nvidia, tesla, they grabbed the headlines and the hype we should pay more attention to netflix. it's up 55% year to date >> and the buy side is completely behind the story. as alex was laying out, it feels as if the analysts are kind of catching up and refining their models an calls to fit with the fact we have price momentum, earnings momentum if you look to next year's numbers. this analyst has a price target implying 25 times 2025 projected earnings, so it's getting aggressive on the valuation front, but it's been more expensive than this right now and almost feels defensive in the media sector part apartment, maybe micron's

biggest problem is it's not amd and it's not broadcom or nvidia or at the forefront of to a hike >> exactly probably contributing to why they're expected to miss q3 estimates. much of wall street is bullish there's 24 out of 36 buys at the moment firstly, you have china imposing a critical infrastructure ban impacting revenues by what the company calls low double digits. the ban came into effect may 24th, which means much of it will be felt in this current quarter, so that hurt q4 guidance and lastly, companies are cutting ban on its central processing units and memory units and pieing more gpus that hurts companies like micron the memory prices are considered

to be on their way to a bottom and stabilization within pc sand smartphone sales could help. we'll be looking at how the chinese bans could weigh on micron's recovery trajectory, given that it was a low-hanging fruit that china went after. >> we're learning ai haves and ai have-nots those with the hype and those trying to get a piece of it. >> i think there's a chance to be miscalculation on both ends of it in terms of how generous the market has been in crowding into and inflating the valuations of the consensus winners in this area when it comes to micron, the earnings trajectory, i should say the loss trajectory has not been that encouraging. so whatever they say about inventory state of the cycle i think is going to probably supersede in the near term what they see in terms of positioning towards the ai trend. >> as we look towards the end, we had a two-minute warning. less than 90 seconds to go are you surprised that yields are behaving as they are today,

even in face of ul of that hawkish central bank speak with sara in portugal >> not terribly surprised. most was reiteration in one form or the other the short end of the yield curve sort of leads in the direction of being open to further rate hikes if it comes down to it so i do think in general range bound and sleepy treasury yields have been comfortable for the stock market all in all, you know, we might get the move the july. that's probably okay no matter what, it's kind of close to the end of things in terms of what the fed is going to do. the inflation number coming on friday, we'll see if that throws a wrench in that general setup of relative calm in terms of the fed outlook right here to me, the message of the market has been encouraging consumer cyclicals and industrials and transports have been outperforming recession-type stocks like consumer staples, some of the weakest today and disinflation

victims. the question is whether we've all decided to get complacent about the economy when numbers change >> more tonight on "taking stock. that's our cnbc special which mike is hosting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time dow goes out a loser i will see you tomorrow. "overtime" is now. >> a mixed bag i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we have breaking news. we'll get earnings results from micron as the chip industry braces for potential restrictions on exports to china. >> and we're awaiting the fed's bank stress test due out in 30 minutes, which will be even more closely watched than ever after the financial turmoil earlier this year. if that wasn't enough, we have a rare exclusive interview with to the ceo of maste