out at all lots of questions there about the consumer, not just in the u.s., but of course globally for them, as tensions with china have cooled down, perhaps, but also still pretty high >> that's right. mixed picture for the markets. the s&p closing just below the flat line. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," the a-800 problem. the semiconductor giant facing a ban on a key a.i. chip why are lobsters getting caught up in all this drama plus, is it time to bet on the banks? major financials releasing stress test results. the first since the collapse of silicon valley bank. but should the reports give investors confidence in this beaten down sector and later, a pinterest pop, netflix streams higher, and all eyes on nike earnings. the fast-moving stocks on our radar tonight. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money.

and we start off with an earnings alert on micron shares are popping after the chipmaker hit expectations and said it is seeing a recovery in the supply/demand balance. the ceo talked about the potential new restrictions on chinese experts of a.i. chips. kristina partsinevelos has been following the story all day lock >> the ceo touting a recovery, saying improved customer inventories are helping drive higher demand and products are helping reduce excess supply he believes, quote, the industry has passed the bottom for both quarterly revenue and year over year growth. the market liking the lower inventory and the reiteration of full-year -- fiscal year 2023 cap-x. so, those are positives. the overhang, though, is the chinese ban on several of its memory chips the situation is still, quote, uncertain, and fluid, with a quarter of micron's worldwide

revenue exposed to china micron reiterated that a low double digit percentage is threatened of being impacted micron is the latest front in the u.s./china trade war i say that, because there was an earlier report today suggesting the u.s. is considering tightening u.s. a.i. chip exports to china nvidia's cfo saying there would be no immediate material impact to financial results the bull ushish narrative still intact, with the stock coming off earlier lows from this morning. melissa? >> kristina, thank you tracking the chip trade in today's session. saw the report this morning, you would think that nvidia, for all the talk of it being overvalued or high valuation, you would think that more would have come off of that stock, karen, and it didn't >> yeah, well, there was that very, very bullish report, it was a, you know, this is sort of a -- you have to be in the space now, this is the greatest growth thing ever, i don't know what

that would have been good for on the upside in an isolated market it is interesting. you would think this would have prompted a pretty significant selloff and it really didn't and i don't know if it's because we don't exactly know what it's going to be, it's coming in july, it's still sort of vague, it could change. who knows. i think that -- it wasn't enough to burst the very excited a.i. bubble that we're in >> yeah. >> but i am long >> bad news, good price action >> totally but you have to look at it this way. the a.i. -- i think to your point, we don't know what's really going to happen we don't know how it's fog to really filter through to the actual business, so, is it 25% of the business or is it really 15%? they say it's 25 in micron's case, it's basically 11%, but they throw out that 25% -- >> revenue or profitability? >> right >> right. >> so, we don't know until we know, and to karen's point, it might never happen there's a lot of political

jockeys here, so, we don't know what the case is truly going to be the biggest takeaway is, we went from a drought to a glut to a boom with a.i. >> but every single night, not every night, almost every night, we talk about the tensions between the u.s. and china, tensions, tensions, getting worse, getting worse, there has to be some sort of a discount filtered into any company doing business in china, and here, we're saying, it may never happen, so, we're going to overlook it in the chip space. that doesn't make any sense to me, courtney >> and i think that's why you're seeing people are putting a lot of credence on the fact that they're at the forefront of artificial intelligence and people think is going to be the next greatest thing, which it very well could be, but they see that, the upside there is a lot greater than the downside of the risk in china. and that's what's getting priced in right now i doubtn't know if i agree with that we've been talking about how expensive these things are getting, but the excitement is there. i think you're going to continue to see the momentum. >> before we grab tim to this,

85% to 90% of the market in a.i., so, if china gets taken out, we don't even know where the rest of the market is without china, and who is going to take china's spot india? some other geopolitical area it's -- we don't know a lot. >> buying up a chip. >> in terms of buying up the chips. it's their percent to lose right now, if you want a.i. chips, you go to nvidia, so, someone will fill that vacuum and that's what the market's doing. they're saying, nvidia, if you are going to bet on a horse, nvidia has 85% to 95% of the marketplace. i would rather be with that player than smin womeone who ha incremental part of the marketplace. >> i think what's shocking, this huge rise is built on this enormous forecast raise, right in the last quarter, tim and here we have news -- >> yeah. >> that puts a little bit of a dent in that forecast, in theory, one would think. that's the logical extension of this news. and yet, there's practically no reaction in the stock.

>> well, they -- they've indicated they have multiquarter visibility now, and does this effect it, as steve's pointing out, they've also been quick to point out. right now, they said it today, you know, we see demand elsewhere. we have no issue filling that demand so, i think that multiquarter demand is clearly there. and i guess -- you know, it's a fascinating time i -- i know we should not be discounting these headlines out of u.s./china, especially over the last couple weeks when we only talked about the true geopoliticsheating up. this is what happens, and this is what's continuing to happen the micron announcement today, i think, should tell you what you need to know they said, this is a significant headwind and it clouds their outlook. even though there's some great stuff in there for micron, including talking about how the demand for memory out of a.i. servers is also really great for them and they're starting to see

that flow through. they are really talking about a pricing trough, so, micron as a stock, which has underperformed the semis, is -- i think, in an interesting place, even with these china headwinds, and frankly, i think it's performed very well, given those headwinds. >> karen, how do you think -- maybe this underscores the notion that you have put forth before that, you know, that forecast, what was it $11 billion -- >> uh-huh. >> that's low balling. >> i think so. >> if they are saying, this is going to be really not an event, that tells you there was upside here imbedded in the forecast. >> well, also makes you wonder, if they are no longer comfortable with that number wouldn't this be an opportunity to say so, right a draft behind this potential headwind, right? i think it's going to be bigger than that. as i said, you know, why would you put out 11 if you are at 10 and change and hoping to get there? you wouldn't you put out 11 because it's such a gigantic number, they could have put out anything. >> 11 1/2 or 12 or whatever it is

>> yes sticking to that >> yeah. or is this whole thing -- is this whole sort of situation, really a tell on this market that there's just a real desire to go where the -- where the quote unquote growth is going to be, inspite of some, you know, i don't know, unknowns on the horizon. >> if you have blackrock saying this is the next greatest moment for the market, paraphrasing, they had a lot more specific term on that, but this is -- to your point, we've already dealt with -- we've expanded out on those large cap tech names where are you going for growth you have to go to tech where are you going within tech? you have to go to a.i. and then, on the peripheral, you have apple sort of in that updraft that hasn't really spoken a lot about a.i. yet, getting a lot of benefit from a.i. environment, so to speak. >> and we had, of course, jerome powell today speaking in portugal with all the other central bankers who are all hawkish. powell reaffirming there could be at least two more

he didn't take off the table two consecutive. but tim, did we really learn anything new from this, do you think, or does this underscore the notion that the fed is still in the fight and not going to relent >> well, the bond market didn't learn anything new the fed funds markets didn't learn anything new we price in, we're at 532 on fed funds. we essentially have 25 bips priced in. we were there a week ago we're not surprised to hear powell continue to put his -- his emphasis on, we're going to go again at some point, so, i -- i look at where yields are, we talked about this, and it came up last night on the show, where some key levels to watch on the ten-year and where you start to see, i think, a breakout to the upside at some point, the equities wouldn't like that the market is kind of banking on sideways yields here, and a fed that's, you know, largely at peak and 25 or even 50 basis points probably doesn't really effect, it's the how much longer the fed holds ground here. but not surprised to hear

central banks reiterating what they have to do right now, because core cpi is stuck at 5.3 and not moving >> yeah, and i think too what you're seeing right now is people are discounting the news discount what the fed saying it's going to do this goes back to when they said, we're not even thinking about raising interest rates and now we're 500 basis points higher people are starting to call their bluff, because they're seeing inflation coming down and i think on the a.i. side, one thing this does bring into the markets right now is, this is something that could bring productivity levels in the u.s. -- or global gdp, and we haven't seen this incremental increase potential in decades. so, i think that's something that could increase the global economy. people are looking at those two things and saying, well, good things for the market, and i think that's really what's getting priced in. >> i agree with that, but that

won't be seen for many years, for awhile when we have an economist, i say, are you factoring in this a.i. boom in terms of your productivity forecast and they're like, no >> and that's the problem. because when you look at someone who is an economist or a market participant, the market prices in six months to a year. economists prices in what just happened so, you can't factor until it happens what really happened what i think the market is doing is, jerome powell keeps talking about two more raises. he says it three times that doesn't mean there's six more raises, it still means there's two, right so, the market keeps looking at this as every time he says it, we have to reprice it in again >> do they, though the market -- it reprices, he has cried wolf, but he has done it he's telegraphed this as clearly as he can, for months and months and months, so, i think the market doesn't react to it anymore, just looks past it. almost like, please, just do it

already and we can get to the pivot or the pause or whatever >> nvidia being where it is, right? >> yes >> that's basically what the -- the message that we're getting >> nvidia is not a -- a fed -- you know, what is the fed going to do story. >> growth is >> growth stocks, you are supposed to sell on a rising rate, but we're coming to the end of that anyway >> i just think this is a different animal >> you believe in the a.i. sort of, the secular -- >> the secular transformation, in terms of where the money's made, i want to be in the picks and shovels and that's where nvidia is. >> let's bring in christopher rolland, a senior analyst who focuses on semiconductors. how are you thinking about a potential ban, particularly when it comes to nvidia, who gave a very bullish forecast and trading at a pretty high valuation. >> yeah, in our history, and the history that we've seen from the government, when these kind of

stories leak, they typically happen, come to fruition sometime in the next few weeks or months. so, we are bracing for some sort of an impact here, which, you know, cfo for nvidia was out today, saying it would be limited. so, that's how we're thinking about it >> do you buy that i mean, so -- you're going to say, we're going to take the cfo at his wourd and believe that, because wasn't the a-800 chip, the workaround chip they developed to get around the ban on the a-100, which was subject to the original ban in october >> that's right. so, originally talked about this being a $400 million impact. we never really saw that in the numbers the first time around when they switched to the 800. so, we think sales in china are still very, very robust. there have been stories about

smuggling other chips in with crates of live lobsters, for example, you can find those things -- those stories out there on the internet. we think sales into china are robust, but given the comments today, we think that the backlog for these products are tremendous right now and so that if china's out of the loop here, and they can't ship, someone else is stepping in and so, it tells us a little bit about demand here. it also probably tells us a little bit about supply, which we've been picking up in china, or, in asia, excuse me, about some, what's called co-loss capacity a technique that's put into these a.i. chips and tsm may be limited in that co-loss capacity going into the back half so, given limited supply and then demand coming from other places, we don't think this going to be a big problem. >> so, chris, it's karen, thank

you for being on who is going to fill that gap then, if -- nvidia doesn't need that business, can easily sell elsewhere, who are goiis going l that gap >> it's going to come from chatgpt copiers, from a.i. startups that want to put all that infrastructure in-house instead of using it on cloud it is coming from everywhere and it was really chatgpt last november that launched 1,000 chips. and so, if 20 of those ships are gone, you know, they don't belong to china, they're going to be picked up elsewhere. >> that implies there was a supply constraint on these chips to begin with, and they could actually sell a lot more, except that they're only putting a certain amount i mean, if you are saying that they don't sell to china, these other guys are going to easily pick it up, i mean, what does that tell you about the dynamics of the market here >> i think that's exactly what i'm telling you. >> all right

>> is that backlog has ballooned. has expanded over the past six to nine months, and nvidia's now in a situation where it has limited supply, particularly going into q-3, q-4. and so, it, you know, this china situation might actually allow them to catch up with some of their backlog from their other customers here >> puts china on the back foot in terms of competing in the a.i. race overall, as well but chris, i wanted to ask you, because there's this notion that china, you mentioned the lobsters, and there's the story in, i think pc magazine, so, not just some weird tiktok video going around about lobsters and chips. about these chips being smuggled, i think from hong kong, or into hong kong, alongside crates of lobsters but there is also this notion that there had been over -- not oversupply, but pull forward, they were stockpiling chips in china. how do we know that end markets

in the united states are not stockpiling, either? >> i doubt they're stockpiling in the united states they've certainly put in some orders, there may be some double orderers there, but the point that you brought up around china, we absolutely agree with. we saw this take place in the fpga market around 5g, right before the u.s. banned those fpga products. we think china has been doing this they have been taking in supply over the past few months, trying to stockpile these things because of exactly what we're talking about right now. so, that is a small overhang, but if you can't ship to china anyway, at least nvidia got the shipments in earlier so, that is how we're feeling about that >> all right, chris, great to get your take, thank you >> thank you, melissa. >> chris rolland, susquehanna. tim, what is your feeling about all of this, after speaking to chris? >> well, his notes were

fascinating coming into the show he also just talked about how there's no efficient real workaround, but even someone like intel, at some point, benefits from, you know, essentially maxing out on cpu for some folks chris's report that came out after that nvidia release back at the end of may was one of the great titles i've ever read, like, something along the lines of, greatest beat of all time. and so, to the extent that -- i don't hear him backing off both the demand story in the next few quarters of visibility gross margins now go north of 70% for nvidia, and again, the stocks move 100 bucks since that report, so -- >> yeah. i -- >> i think he talked about this as a precame c-cambrian moment, really says a lot. >> yeah, i mean, look. p pre-cambrian takes me back to my latin studies, which, you know, i was really only good at

vocabulary, not translating, but i think we have a case here where you really have to understand whether you're going to get that full kind of cap-x buildout by the tech community to warrant the kind of move that we've seen across the entire megacap tech sector. coming up, a stream dream. investors bingeing on netflix, as analysts forecast more subscriber growth. where they see the stock heading next. plus, a picture perfect hall wells ss fargo getting bullishn pinterest. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. aflac! seriously? now there's a hole in your defense; look at the size of that- gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! is that a goat?! you talkin' about me? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! i think this goat is saying “gap.” must be talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. so who's talking about the money aflac pays to help close that gap? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! aflac! aflac! gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! it's about to go down, baby! aflac! aflac!

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welcome back to "fast money. netflix topping the tape today, jumping 3% after a bullish nope from oppenheimer upping the price target to $500. grasso, what do you think? >> well, i was long this below 200, i sold it up $30, thought i hit the ball out of the market, and now you look back and -- i think -- the last time i was on, we talked about netflix, it's

how much can they make off of cracking down on password sharing? so, i know tim and karen have been bullish on it, i think it can move a little bit higher from here, but i think it's hitting a wall >> they're going to make it, but it's going to be recurring, right, in theory >> in theory, until someone actually has to pay for it and they dumb the password crackdown or you decide you're not really watching enough of it. and i don't know how that really comes to a conclusion. >> well, the ad tier -- that, as well, has really been -- really been, i guess, overperforming what they thought it would there was a fear that there would be a cannibalization of other subscribers trading down, and that's not what's happening. they're just seeing additional subscribers, and so, they get that -- that revenue that they don't have, that marginal revenue, plus they get the advertising revenue and the more eyeballs, the higher the advertising revenue is going to be so, a lot of great things going, even though tim always likes to talk about, seemed like they were playing defense, but now it's offense again and it's the sort of macro

picture of, i think of the day of reckoning in the streaming space, right so many competitors, they're not clearly -- money is no longer free, and so i think we're going to see consolidation, which ultimately i think is good for netflix. >> yeah. tim? >> well, and i head start the netflix -- i frankly didn't appreciate for, you know, big part of it is what has allowed them to start to generate free cash flow and there's some other little things you can layer in in terms of a writers strike and dynamics that really favor both their content slate and the ability of their to outperform. you get back to what's truly happening now with the quote unquote borrowers of the service. jpmorgan in a note a few weeks ago said that they'll monetize about $13 million, $14 million in '23, monetize 24 mil$24 milln '24, and $33 million in '25. that's -- i forgot what i was counting up there, $68 million

out of $100 million, that is accretive, that is an aggregate building upon itself for a company that's just starting to get into free cash flow and will probably be north of 7 billion soon, so -- that's -- that's, to me, the story. i'm -- you know, i'm having a little trouble being as bullish as i was and, in fact, i've sold one-third of that position, and i think i might slowly be taking more of it off, but not because there's any breakdown in the story. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next picture this pinterest surging by nearly 30%. that's the call from one analyst getting bullish on the name. the details next plus, we're all stressed and banks have really been feeling the pressure the group out with its first set of stress test results since the collapse of svb. but our next guest says he's still constructive on the space. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site

in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. pinterest shares popping after wells far go upgraded the stock to an overweight from equal weight, boosting its price target to $34 a share. that's just about 20% upside from where the stock closed today. the analyst writing that the company's partnership with amazon set to kick off in october will be a key force in driving monetization courtney, are you onboard this train? >> yeah, i understand the upgrade, i think they really do have a lot of potential when you look at international. gen-z has been their largest increase in customers and i think there's a lot of potential

there, but they do need to mon monetize it needs to be somewhere where you can buy the things you are looking for. it's still not a cheap stock and i think that's kind of my trouble with it. so, it could have a short-term upside, because clearly the markets don't care about expensive stocks right now, but i would be a little hesitant for that reason. >> i agree with the premise. when you look at the stock chart that you're showing right now, actually looks like a pretty impressive performance on the name if you drill back and you go a year or three years back, the chart is a mess. and i think it's just -- we're reaping the benefits of maybe the rate rising environment is over, maybe you're buying a little riskier then you have the amazon headline, so, everyone gets excited again. so, i agree with the premise, but i think it's going to only last for so long until they actually start seeing some visibility p on some of the numbers that they're actually projecting or going to take place. >> karen >> yeah, it's not for me i mean, the -- it's expensive.

the balance sheet is in great, great shape, so, it's cheaper than the stock appears, as they do have a lot of cash, but i'd much rather, i know you didn't ask me what i would i rather -- >> oh. oh >> we did it earlier, but i would much rather be in a meta or in a google that is in a related space for almost half the pe >> and a.i >> and a.i. pixie dust >> can't lose with that, right all right, coming up, all eyes on banks. our next guest says the group is getting ready for a snowstorm. plus, next, we're lacing up for nike earnings. the options strategy ahead of the report, when "fast money" returns.

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a power outage is looming. that's just alert, he's always getting worked up about something. flex alerts notify us of preventable power outages. that way we always know when to help stop one. ok flex, just drop some knowledge on me again. oh, ok i will - i'll turn our thermostat to 78... i'll unplug the blender. the hair dryer. - my blankie? - yep! - let's talk about it! - nope. ooo, we can save the laundry til' the morning! oh, yes please! oh! little things like this help save our power and help save us from outages. with flex alerts, the power is ours. welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing mixed with just two trading days left in the first half the dow dropping 70 points the s&p virtually flat, but the nasdaq with a small gain and president biden speaking today about his economic plan, saying bringing down inflation remain as top priority the president saying he is determined to change the economic direction of the country and to move away from trickle down economics, some core aspects of the so-called

bidenomics plan. meantime, big bank stocks rallying afterhours. all 23 names in the fed's annual stress test passed a recession scenario the fed saying the u.s. banking system remains strong and resilient. it's the ventral ban's first stress test since the collapse of silicon valley bank let's break down the report with chris marinac. great to speak with you. >> thank you >> so, wasn't just a severe recession that was tested, but also, 40% decline in commercial real estate values, and so i'm wondering if you think that this test really gives you sort of the green light here >> well, it does give a green light that the banks are secure and the banks have plenty of cash flew to cover the issues out there. and that's really the key for the industry, because as you look at the next 2 1/2, 3 years, whatever issues we have, i think the weather will change, we'll have colder weather, snowstorms

that will occur on credit, but banks can handle it with both the capital, as well as the offering in earnings for ppnr that they have so, it just confirms what we thought was out there. from an investor standpoint, the stocks are really cheap. we've seen expectations for earnings and cash flow come down 15% at most year to date and stocks are down 30%. so, i think it's been an overreaction several months in the making now, it's time to see some reversal. so, we're in a trading range, but i think we can have better valuation ahead. >> you said the stock, of course, that's a big swath of different kinds of banks, chris, so, which ones are the best values right now in your view? >> well, the regional banks have the best liquidity and they have been the area of most concern. if you look at a fifth-third bank, wintrust bank, we like pacwest as a comeback, the company has not failed, it is now selling assets and improving their position significantly, and that's a comeback story. we still like stories of a mid

cap name like an ocean first, abc b and there are many others in that, you know, mid cap and even large regional bank arena most of the companies are profitable they may have lower expectations, which, i think, is the key pain point for companies right now. but overall, they're still very healthy, which the stress tests just reinforced. and as that gets applied, other banks on down the size chain, you will see the same results appear they pass the stress test that happened for the companies >> chris, it's karen let me ask you, where we have sort of a tale of two cities in the banking world. we've got the jpmorgans of the world and then the regionals i would think we have to see meaningful consolidation to be able to leverage the balance sheet, leverage the technology costs. how quickly do you think we'll see that landscape change in fewer banks? >> i think it will take three, four years, karen.

i really think the inside of the fed, particularly the bowlels of the examiners, we don't see them in a rush. the folks who approve deals are just not in a hurry to do them it's going to take a couple of years for that to happen but the banks will recognize the problems this quarter coming up will have a lot of reserve building, extra provision expense. that's probably why the estimates have to come down a little bit but the stocks have reflected that >> chris, we're just putting up the criteria for the stress test in terms of what, you know, the hurdles the banks have to clear. and i'm wondering, you know, maybe this is too technical, i'm just curious how these tests are implemented. is it, today you have this balance sheet, we're going to enact these, you know, this change in your world for banks, and that's it, or, is there time built in for the banks to

adjust is it an overnight kind of thing, you know, employment piece at 10% tomorrow? >> sure, it's a nine-quarter process, where you change the economic scenarios, you have both stock prices and real estate prices fall about 40%, and then you have nine quarters to kind of implement those changes and sort of accept, if you will, interms of writing off problems that you have so, that's the issue it's not a shock, which, of course, did happen in real life in march, when you had a shock to the system with the two and then three banks that failed and perhaps adding a shock analysis would be better commentary from the fed, and we may get there, but that's not what this is and of course, the other flaw to your question, i think, is also that interest rates fall in the this scenario, which really unlocks a lot of the unrealized losses that are in bank securities portfolios, so, that's a key reason why the stress test does have its flaws, but you know, the time frame is a nine-quarter look. >> right and so, if you had to, if the fed said, hey, chris, what do you want to change about the

stress test, what other criteria do you want to put in, should it be less than nine quarters the volatility in interest rates is bigger than equity. that seems to be the flaw. >> that's correct. you could make it more of a six-month or three-month process, to see how banks adapt to a sudden shift in interest rates, of course, we've seen that over about five quarters with what the fed's done from march to now almost july i think from an earn standpoint of how long it takes companies to recognize credit problems, it does take longer than a few quarters and again, i think a two to three-year time frame is fine for that, but the shock analysis really needs to be a shorter time, so, i think that's a great point. >> chris, thank you for your thoughts appreciate it. tim, what -- you feel better about banks after this stress test they all passed. >> well, by the way, there's no shock in that really tranquil

peaceful picture, water color behind chris really, as we're talking about all the fears out there. >> very calming. >> deep breath here. look, chris sounded about as bullish as he can be here, when you combine balance sheets and you talk about credit issues that are at least measured and where banks are still making money, and that -- especially in an environment where even there is interest rate volatility and lower nims i'm a believer in that, and i own the kre from around 39 1/2ish, you know, three weeks ago, and it could trade lower, but i -- i think that's a great place to have the diversify case of an etf, but i -- you know, he's pointed out, karen's pointed out, jpmorgan, that first republic about kwi situ acquisition was huge bank of america, citi, and jp are the kind of, the barbell that i carry, and i like banks here, at least until we get a

little bit more information. >> when it comes to the stress test -- >> crazy -- >> car ride home, i mean, this is what we do. >> this is what we do, yeah. >> i was asking, what would you add to the stress test >> and one thing i thought was, and it may be in there, a very severe security breach, a hack -- >> yeah. >> billions lost or hundreds -- i mean -- >> right, what happens >> that's a disaster scenario. i don't know if that's in there. >> do you like the stress tests, courtney do you feel good about, you know, potentially buying into regionals, for instance, where chris finds value? >> i do like the banks here, just because i think there's kind of been an overreaction to, you know, the fears of what's going to happen with the banking crisis i think the stress test themselves is really just kind of the start of it, because there could still be additional regulations where they need to keep more money on their balance

sheets, that might effect buy-backs, so, it could effect the returnss s on banks going forward. i don't think it's the end of the story yet. i still like the banks here, but i think you are seeing people bold holding their breath. coming up, will nike shares swoosh higher? looking ahead to that report and how options traders are playing the name the details when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money. nike shares limping off the starting line today despite jpmorgan reiterating its overweight call on the stock ahead of tomorrow's earnings report options traders are betting this name could be due for a spell on the sidelines. kevin kelly's got the action hey, kevin >> hi, melissa today, you actually saw the put/call ratio come down from 11 1/2 to ending the day 1.16 times. and that's interesting, because tomorrow's move is anticipated to be 6.4% for the stock, and that's about 2% below its historical average and today, the -- one of the most active contracts you saw was the 100 strike put that

expires in two days. and we saw at the end of the day, over 5,000 of those contracts traded and they closed around 28 cents. >> all right, kevin, thank you kevin kelly. tim, how are you feeling about nike >> well, i think there's been a major correction in inventory. i think they've done an admirable job on limiting promotions they said they're gouge to limit promotions wholesale is going to contract on this fiscal q-4 '23 number, and that's kind of the story u.s. is going to grow 400%, china ten. i just think this is not going to get away from you i think it's a great company, but i remain shoert steve, quick >> tim has a better feel for nike if i look at the chart, it looks like it still has some potential. last time, i said sketchers, that did not work for the record, but it basing here guy had a very good comeback, he

said skchers, don't do it. >> for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, are europeans hotter than americans? we're talking about tech, of course how some currency moves are creating overseas opportunities in the sector. more on that when "fast money" returns.

we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

welcome back to "fast money," broadly reaffirming the hawkish outlooks on rates, but monetary conditions in japan have pushed the yen to seven-month lows against the dollar next guest calls the moves in the yen a runaway devaluation, but sees a tech trading opportunity here in the weakness ben is a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income at new edge wealth great to have you with us. thanks for coming in so, we haven't -- yen carry trade. that's what's fueling a.i. here? >> i think it's part of risk taking it's a traditional trade people borrow yen, go out and take risk. so, you go back in, say, 20, 30 years ago, that was one of those key trades that was unwound and

became revelation of, yeah, japan will stay at zero and stays at zero, even today, trying to ask him about, what do you do next? still saying at zero, negative so, cheap money is there, even though elsewhere, money's got a lot more expensive if you look at it that way, so, it feels risk-taking. i think the yen carry trade is something to really watch. >> it feels like, ben, as long as the yen remains weak, this carry trade could, in fact, continue and so, what could the way to do to stem this weakness? i mean, intervention, historically, does not work at least for sustained periods of time, maybe just temporarily, so -- i mean, what would need to happen for this trade to end >> yeah, the line in the sand is the difficult one, you know, traders look at 145 to 150 to the dollar there was some statements out from officials in japan that we're monitoring it carefully, but that verbal intervention, that doesn't do much

so, it comes down to two things, i think. one, japan does succeed and bank of japan can stand unwiding that control. or the other turn is that the federal reserve reverses that latter, i think, is not yet happening. powell was pretty clear on the panel, we have more to go, and the markets are spriced there so, we wait until we get an intervention and that's a lot of things >> so, to me, like, when i hear this, i think of it in a couple ways one is that maybe this a.i. trade will last even longer, as long as the yen is weak, and yet, you say that there will be a rotation out of u.s. tech into european or asian tech what causes that rotation

>> fair pobint, in the sense tht you can continue with this yen/u.s. trade so to speak but if you look at euro/yen, that's even more out of control. that's moving up, and that's really because the ecb is even more on a trajectory to tighten. so, if you think about it from a currency perspective that way, and you look at european tech, and that's a bit different sector that we have in the u.s., but it's an interesting one, because there's companies like, back home where i'm from, the netherlands, where you have, you know, a company that dominates the supply chain asml is a company that generates machines, that allows you to build chips. so, the company, i think, about 32, 35 forward multiple, but it's actually trading cheaper than nvidia andors and actually lagged on the year so, it's an interesting thing in terms of euro/yen versus euro tech >> i think i'm about to learn something. the nikkei is up a lot this year, up 27-plus, but adjusted for currency, up 15, 16 maybe?

isn't that a lot of money going into the nikkei and going into -- do most of those, do they buy them in dollars, euro you first have to buy it in yen and keep it in yen, or convert it to something else that counterbalance what you're saying >> maybe it to an extent, karngs b karen, but the traditional idea of yen hedging, i used to do this in portfolios, hedging t-bills to dollars, you buy ynez st japanese stocks, probably done a lot by fund managers that want to allocate to japanese stocks i think the weakness of the yen is different they stick with this policy, they want to get to the 2% inflation, they are not giving up on that goal, so, it's going to drive the yen even weaker, right? even though, as you're saying, yes, there's money coming into japan, which should lead to yen buying >> tim's got a question. >> ben, this is tim.

it sounds, yeah, hi, it sounds like this is more about international investing as a function of a very long secular shift of what's happened over the last five to ten years into tech and it's really attractive here, because the best days are largely behind us. my view is that we will never see -- we'll look back in history and see 30% of the s&p in these companies and say, it's not going to happen again. and i'm just curious, isn't that really the core thesis because i believe the international story is happening. >> totally, tim. i think you're right there is this one relative valuation between tech and here overseas, or other industries. two, there is this notion of the dollar weakening, but the currencies strengthening, that's a double return. you have would actually make a double whammy there, you are getting better multiple price

stocks, plus the currency return, so, yes, it's a good story. >> ben, thank you for coming by. really interesting stuff >> thank you >> steve >> yeah, i think it's difficult. ben is a savvy investor and ben knows that space it's difficult for the average retail investor to really make that trade happen, but -- >> except if you think that the a.i. trade is coming to an end for other external factors, other than just -- >> easy to play that direct a.i. trade. unfortunately for the a.i. thing, it's whack a mole there's plenty of reasons to be buying a.i there's a couple of reasons why it might not extend, but there's too many reasons why it will >> up next, final trades

time for the final trade tim? >> let's try this again. jpmorgan one of chris's main points is, they're not going to be cutting the dividend, and think thjp mo began benefits from that >> karen >> in terms of banks that trade poorly because of fear of regulation and capital, morgan stanley, i think, some capital requirements are baked in. >> courtney? >> on the same theme here, i was

going to pick one of the banks, i went with kbe. i think there are underrated right now. >> steve >> i actually had bad basil in a restaurant one rivn, i think it's bouncing substantially. >> all right, welcome to the cnbc special, jim cramer is out tonight. more commentary from central bankers. more export restrictions between the u.s. and china. the dow finishing 74 points at the close.