that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thanks for watching. ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> not backing down. the world's top central bankers talk tough on inflation and vow to keep rates elevated for the foreseeable future jay powell says restrictive policies have not been restrictive for long enough. >> you look at the data over the last quarter, what you see his

stronger than expected growth and higher inflation that tells us, although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough and not been restrictive for long enough. european equities trade along the flat line as investors weigh divergence inflation trends as germany jumps. christine lagarde tells cnbc more hikes are on the table. >> we know we have ground to cover. if our baseline stands, then we know we will likely hike again in july. jumping on the trend h&m jumps to the top of the stoxx 600 and says hot temperatures help sales of the customer collection. and shares of the debt supermarket chain casino plunge on track for the worse day since

1987 and told it has a day to boost its equity offering. it was the central banking panel to end all panels yesterday. what a panel and highlight so much news that came out of it i know you and i were watching sarah's panel. >> amazing to see them side by side and she tried to get them to weigh in on what each other was dealing with >> recap some of the highlights. more tightening in the cards for the monetary position. that is what they told cnbc at the central banking forum in sintra the leaders of the fed, ecb and bank of england and bank of japan signal they can hike rates without causing recession.

jay powell says he doesn't see core inflation falling back to 2% until 2025. >> i don't see us getting to 2% this year or next year this is core inflation headline inflation is coming down and lower than core for core inflation, no i don't see us getting to 2% this year or next year >> 2025? >> yeah. >> core inflation 2% you will be restrictive for a long time? >> we will be restrictive as long as we need to be. you know, if inflation is coming down sharply and we're confident it is on a path to 2%, you know, that would be a different situation. you would think about loosening policy that is not something we're thinking about now or in the future >> powell gave a hint on the hiking path.

>> and we decided not to raise rates at the june meeting. we have not made a decision to go to that it may work out that way it may not work out that way i would not take consecutive meetings off the table. >> a lot of issues for me from jay powell the line of monetary policy not restrictive enough for long enough is one that caught the market's attention also, i thought it was informative that he was explaining reaction function and at the beginning, they were going in clips of 75 and they moderated to 50 and slowed down to 25 basis points now sarah put the question to him if this implies they go every other meeting because they are approaching the end of the rate hiking cycle. he did not rule anything out the key take away is they are nearing the end of the hiking cycle, but investors should not be quick to start pricing in rate cuts. interest rates will have to stay

restrictive for longer. >> it did feel like the biggest headline generated from the panel of which there were many was the comment around not ruling out consecutive rate hikes. i was sprurprised that was deemd a headline i'm surprised it wasn't on the table before it doesn't mean it will happen he is clear they are data d depent -- dependent still. now in terms of the july rate hike, they are pricing in the 79% chance they will increase. it doesn't suggest what happens after that >> the comments around inflation and not getting to 2% before 2025 is alarming as well they don't have a lot of confidence yet that they have beaten inflation they are not going to let up until they are confident until inflation is on a sustainable path back to their target which

echo what is other central bankers had to say. >> it takes the conversation to the next phase which is when we think about cuts in a more serious way. let's talk about christine lagarde, the president of the ecb. show struck the same tone with economic indicatindicators >> we are data dependent we will decide on a meeting-by-meets ing basis. if our baseline stands, we know we will likely hike again in july >> lagarde said europe's economy is showing signs of stagnating, but not factoring in a recession at this stage. >> we did not see a recession. it is stagnant to say the least. the expectations for q2 for

manufacturing is not giving us great hope there would be a strong recovery. we see a second half of 2023 up from the first half, certainly, but moderate we have a 0.9% forecast for the whole year >> do you agree with chair powell can you get away with the tightening cycle without dragging into recession? >> our baseline does not include recession. it is part of the risk out t there. >> i thought it was fascinating to hear she was hawkish and in l line with the last ecb meeting she seems relatively relaxed about the economic outlook which is surprising to me given the forward looking indicators like pmi has shown a downturn in the services sector which held up well the last several months >> the ecb outlook is not predicting ecession. that gives them the cover to

focus on the inflation landscape. one quote she made at other pa points in the panel, they are not seeing evidence the prices moving down. she reiterated what jay powell said they want to remain restrictive for long enough. it is about staying there for a sufficient amount of time to be convinced inflation is back to target it comes back to the conversation we had at the beginning of the year when interest rates were pricing in the cuts, a lot of that has been priced out now essentially it is because the market listened to what the central bankers were saying and not only would they take rates to restrictive territory, but they will keep them there. >> i always come back to the fact that the central bankers are participating to equity market participants.

if they were to signifial more e cuts are in the future, that will drive equity prices higher. that has made the economy run hot. i think that is in the back of their minds when they communicate about rate cuts being a way off. >> the public they communicate to are homeowners and borrowing. let's switch to the bank of england. sarah asked andrew bailey about the shocked rate hike. >> the economy has been resilient. that is a good thing there are many good aspects to that what goes with the resilience is a sign of a tight labor market which is showing through in pay and pay awards and showing through. we have unemployment rate of 3.8% which is historic at the low end. resilience is coming through that way and again to christine's point,

we are driven by evidence at the moment the data on the labor market and inflation release shows clear signs of persistence it causes us to conclude we had to make a strong move at that point. it was justified >> the uk is similar to the other economieyies on the panel it suffered a supply shock from energy and food. inflation is running high. the major difference is labor shortage later on during the panel, bailey discussed it with sarah and posed a question as to why he thinks the labor market shrunk since pre-covid since covid, many people left the labor market and there is a brexit impact because less people are coming into the country. because of that, the wage pressures in the uk are

persistent for them, that is more alarming than it is for other central bankers out there. >> the uk situation is more precarious than what we are seeing in europe and in the u.s. and the housing market is front and center we will get housing market data later on today this is problematic and the government's hands are tied from the fiscal side. >> on the housing stuff, we spoken about it before i would say actually the bank of england is cautiously watching what is happening with the housing market they are not worried simply because there is a less percentage of the population these days who are on those floating rate mortgages. a lot tied to fixed rate mortgages. he spoke with sarah about that and they are slowly running off. it is a big issue for anyone who has a mortgage it is one of the reasons the monetary policy transmission is taking longer because of the

time it takes for the existing mortgages to roll into floating ones. >> that is interesting that is the great thing about the panel you saw on display the different economic environments. everybody is on 30-year fixed terms. homeowners are insulated from the rate hikes. -- at the other end of the scale, governor ueda has more about the tightening policy. >> we have a forecast projection of inflation path that looks like it will go down for a while toward the end of the year on declines in prices and it moved to there's particular pr -- moved to domestic prices from there, we include the rate of inflation into 2024 we are less confident about the second part.

if we become reasonably sure the second part is going to happen, that could be good for policy change. >> rare to hear the governor ueda speak sarah asked the question all of us wanted to put to the governor and that we all have been waiting on our toes to see if they will change their loose monetary policy stance the messaging from the governor is they are not ready yet. he said the inflation forecast for next year and he wants to see underlining inflation move in the right direction heading toward 2% and be convinced now is the time to move away from the ultra loose monetary policy. >> i also thought like what we are hearing from other bankers, wage growth is a determining feature for the bank of japan.

wages must rise above 2% for inflations to hit the level they are looking for. >> that struck me. they are not there yet that may change. keep your eye out on the bank of japan inflation forecast and metrics for inflation over there. speaking of inflation, we had a lot of regional german cpi data. the country print is coming out at the end of the show at 10:00 a.m. let me bring you the may numbers. bavaria aa was 0.2% month on m. as for the headline number, 6.2% year on year against 6.1% back in may it is an uptick. earlier on, we had numbers from nrw. those came in higher than expected 6.2% year on year against 5.7% in may as well just to give you a few other

states that have come through. brandenburg at 6.6 the regions reporting this morning are all reporting higher than expected headline inflation. one thing i would add is there is going to be a base effect here in germany, they introduced the special nine euro transport pass in june. because of that, you will see an upward tick with core inflation when the numbers come out. >> we have more prints coming through. the german state of hesse with stronger inflation 6.1% against 5.9% in may 0.2% month on month. and stronger inflation than in m may. we have heard hawkish leaning from christine lagarde you think the numbers from germany will not change the direction of travel for ecb. in spain, this could have a

different impact spanish inflation declined in june marking the first time prices rose less than 2% in years this swedish central bank hiked the key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. the central bank said krona means the prices are trying to get back to target and this is indicating that more rate hikes are to come that is the theme from sintra. we had the panel, julianna and i were breaking down, but the take away from the central bankers is they are not letting up with the fight against inflation. investors should expect higher interest rates for longer. that is the wtake away from thi.

you see the heat map in europe is split between green and red stoxx 600 is trading at the flat line if you go back over last three months, we have been pretty much range bound. it has been difficult for the stoxx 600 to breakout and that tells you about the macro environment we find ourselves in we reacting to earnings das wel today. let's get to the individual markets. this is the split. you see the dax is trading at the flat line with germany cpi numbers later this morning we had the ibex up .10%. spanish with 12-month inflation is 2.2%. and in italy, up .60%. renault is having a positive

outlook on top of the cac 40 and if ftse 100 is down a bit ocado is moving this morning and autos up at the top with the sectors. 1.3% retail in focus. we had strong reports from h&m that is a major contribution to the retail sector today in europe on the flip side, travel is down >> we love to hear what you thought about the central bank panel. if you want to join the conversation i'm @cnbc julianna. and coming up, fresh curbing on chip exports to china more on that story after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. casino shares are on track for the worst day since 1987 amid expectation of the share

dilusion for investors they are working on a debt restructuring plan to prop up the equity base. so far, the french retailer has received two bid propososals wot $1.1 billion. in the auto space, renault shares are 7% higher this morning. the cfo says inventory is coming down, but delivering cars to customers is a challenge this after the carmaker raised the outlook after the number of new launches the french carmaker expects a hei higher operating margin for the year and continue with the product offensive with electrification of the fleet. and h&m beat analyst forecast the company is off to a strong start with sales in june up 10% in local currency. the fashion group says it has

been morefocused on the higher priced brand costs as it targets shoppers less vulnerable to rising prices. i didn't realize that was part of the same family. micron shares are higher in pre-market trade after the chip maker beat revenue for the third quarter fueled by higher demand for chips in the a.i. sector the company boosted forecast for the quarter saying it sees the chip supply gut easing. and nvidia says the chip exports to china will hit the u.s. industry hard depriving it to lead the sector the comments come as washington reportedly mulls tightening rules and clamping down on the power chips can have we have the senior research analyst at counter point research to talk about the chip

space. great to have you with us. let's start with the reported update that is coming to the biden export controls to china. how significant are the changes reportedly mulled to come into action later this summer >> i believe now they would would be clamping down more on the rules that they announced last september nvidia found a work around they were sending out a lower chip set to the chinese market and now apparently with the new rules coming in, they cannot even send out the chips to chinese markets which is the 800 version. and apparently, we are hearing the new rules will also circumspect around the cloud business the chinese companies also cannot take cloud services for their a.i. workload from the

u.s. companies i believe no work arounds are possible after the rules come into effect. >> that is drastic for nvidia. they were able to develop lower quality or less advanced chips in october to circumvent the rules. if they are not able to continue p se selling to china, that is 20% revenue for nvidia i believe that is a substantial headwind for the company >> correct if the company is not able to circumvent it again or the government does not allow them to expose, they will take impact of 20% to 25% revenue which comes from china and hong kong together i believe it would be a drastic headwind for nvidia considering it is the only company in the world which is making a.i. chip

s. i believe it would -- from the chinese side, they would have no alternative now for the a.i. chips. it would impact nvidia and the chinese economy respectively >> just wondering why we are not seeing a more pronounced market reaction given the chinese market for nvidia. to what extent is there bullishness out there about nvidia or manufacturer of a.i. chips. >> we have to see chinese demand at 20% to 25% for nvidia's portfol portfolio. if we see the investment, we see investment from a.i. with hyper scalers that are u.s. based. amazon, microsoft, azure and

google and meta. these are inn p vvesting a lot n a.i. that is where the demand for a.i. is coming to nvidia and suppliers and partners which can be from tsmc and all of the fliers across the value chain. we have to see investment from hyper scalers from u.s. >> we see the positive reaction in the stock from micron overnight. it appears the supply glut is over how is this transitioning from the traditional servers and a.i. servers from the companies you just listed? >> this year, we are seeing most of the investment is general purpose to a.i. based which are more expensive and go up from 5x costs to 20x costs upwards

this is due to a.i we see the capital expense being trans iitioned so the companies are making up the a.i. infrastructure which is in demand from the clients. that's how we would see a shipment decline of servers, but from the venue value perspective, that would be increased. >> very clear. great to have you on the show today to help us make sense of what is going on in the chip space. senior research analyst. coming up on the show, the u.s. economy is expected to post modest growth in the first quarte quarter. we will discuss more after this break.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines >> not backing down. the top central bankers talking

tough on inflation and vow to keep the rates elevated. jay powell tells the sintra panel that restrictive policies have not been restrictive long enough >> you look at the data over the last quarter, you see stronger than expected growth and tighter than expected labor market and higher than expected inflation that tells us that although policy is restrictive, it is not restrictive enough and it has not been restrictive for long enough european equities trade on the flat line as investors weigh the divergence trends. spain's annual cpi dips below 10%. christine lagarde states more hikes are on the table. >> we have more ground to cover and if our baseline stands, we know we will likely hike again in july. jumping on the trend h&m jumps to the top of the

stoxx 600 and says hot temperatures help sales of the summer collection. and shares of the debt supermarket chain casino have been told it has until monday to boost the equity offering. we were speaking about the uk mortgage rates before the break. we have fresh data points to share with you uk may mortgages have come in over 50,000. that was higher than 49,700. 2 it came down in may. slightly less of a contraction

in mortgage leapnding in may joumanna picked up on what andrew bailey said from the bank of england part of the reason we are seeing a lag in monetary policy in the uk is there are a number on fixed rate mortgage holders. >> it is is surprising how thes mortgage rates are holding up coming in higher than the estimate of more than 50,000 we know that cracks are beginning to show, but it is nothing at this point that anyone has started to panic about. we are just anticipating what might happen in the future right now, there is not a lot of d distress >> speaking on the cnbc panel in sintra, andrew bailey said they keep the fixed rate mortgages in mind with the policy. >> we know and we think about

85% of the stock of the uk mortgages have been that part of the market we know the transmission of monetary policy will be slower as a result. obviously, it depends on the timing and sequence of the fixed terms coming to an end we have to judge that. it is another factor and element of uncertainty we have to judge when we take our decisions which is how much of the tightening have we already done has come through and how much has yet to come through. >> fascinating lines from andrew bailey yesterday in terms of the equities today, investors no doubt taking into account the fresh lines from the central bankers in sintra. in europe, off to a slow start when you take the headlines in sum. ftse 100 is trading lower. smi in switzerland is pulling back slightly. no moves in the dax this morning despite the higher than expected or higher than what we saw in

the previous month inflation figures from various regions in germany. inflation is alive and well and accelerating in the country. in france, contrast to the french market trading higher by .30%. ftse mib is up .20%.formers is d renault. and currency markets euro/dollar holding steady look at how far we have come down trading in the 126 area. well below where we were a week or two ago above 128 sterling has come down from the greenback. in terms of trade on wall street, a modest rebound according to the indices and futures at this stage. we had subdued trade s&p closing marginally lower

with the semiconductor stocks under performing we have weekly jobless claims and pending home sale data. u.s. banks passed the stress test on monday with all 23 lenders weathering a severe recession scenario they would be able to maintain minimum capital levels despise the losses of $541 billion hypothetical, cof course. this clears the way for dividends and buybacks some creitics warn this is not a all clear signal given the regional banking turmoil here is a story that caught my attention bank of america suffered a $100 billion paper loss data from the federal deposit

insurance corporation shows the losses far exceed the rival. bank of america's value has plunged the portfolio as interest rates have plunged the last year. giul julianna, that is alarming just digging into the data, the average maturity is about ten years. the interest rate is 2%. we are looking at significant lower yields of the that would be problematic if they have to sell they don't bank of america has $1.9 trillion of deposits $1.4 trillion of retail deposits even though these are paper losses, they definitely have the balance sheets absorb the losses because of the massive size of the retail deposits and they are

paying low interest rates. >> it is not problematic from any solvency perspective it is the opportunity cost of holding to maturmaturity bank of america was in the worst position than many of the peers ofpeers. shares have fallen 15% this year against the rivals >> it raises questions about their balance sheet oversight. you cocould ask the question why they are investing so much. we expect the gdp data from the u.s. today the economy is expected to grown 1.4% as it struggles to maintain momentum with high inflation jay powell said the central bank is keeping a close eye on the

data. >> the u.s. economy is resilient. the data we are seeing including since the last meeting still is consistent with the economy resilient and growing although at a modest pace as i mentioned earlier, there was no question -- the first question is how fast should we go we went pretty fast. we got to a level that was restrictive. we are in restrictive territory if you take federal funds rate and subtract a measure of forward looking inflation. you get a positive real rate meaning we're in restrictive territory. i think we have steadily slowed the pace of our moves and it is appropriate to do so because the more information we get, the better decisions we make the risk of doing too much against too little are in balance. i would not say they are in balance yet. and president biden made a pitch to voters in chicago

yesterday defending his report of bidenomics. he is helping tackle inflation for americans as he looks to his re-election bid. a lot to get to. investment strategist. we had a couple of data prints surprise together upside be it consumer confidence levels or spending on durable goods and the housing starts data has been surprising to the upside this tells me the u.s. economy is more resilient than people anticipated it to be >> yes, good morning we cannot deny the u.s. economy is resilient we shouldn't forget the u.s. economy is slowing you are referring to the data in housing market which shows a clear patch of strength. i would argue that if you look

at the big picture, we continue to see a slowdown. that is what the forecast is for the next year. there is quite a specific factor driving the housing strength at the moment >> what do you think is the smoking gun at moment? what is telling you the u.s. economy is slowing substantially and how worried should we be about the data >> you can see the slowdown in almost everywhere with the exception of the labor market. the consumption associated with the labor market i would argue more than watching the gdp numbers today. we should watch the labor market that has been the main area of strength in the u.s. economy >> we had a fantastic panel yesterday. i don't know if you caught any of it or our recap in sintra, jay powell talked about the longer term outlook for the fed. he doesn't see core inflation

coming down to 2% until 2025 when do you see the pivot from the fed and cutting interest rates and taking into account about core inflation >> that has been pushed out. i think one of the biggest mistakes that the market made until recently was to price in cuts soon or late this year or early next year. i think markets are coming to terms with the idea that inflation is actually a persistent beast and central banks need to fight that inflation hard that may mean they have to keep rates on hold for a long time. i would argue for at least for the next year, you should see rates that are, you know, high levels or around current levels. >> are equity markets positioned for that scenario?

>> no, equity markets are positioned for late cycle. particularly in a late hcycle environment, they are start to slow in growth rates you see volatility in the rates market and the equity market fal falling. that brings investors into the market central bankers are fighting inflation. if you look at inflation indi indicators, it is starting to turn this is actually classic late cycle pricing where you see risky assets moving ead. i would argue more growth sensitive which should be a little bit less perky here we have the u.s. for example this has been largely a tech story if you look at other indices. it has been more range bound >> the fed chair jay powell has

been good at telegraphing to the mark market what they plan on doing he said they initially started with 75 and slowed to 50 and now 25 and now possibly skipping mee meetings et cetera. what would be a surprise for the fed? >> they are clear they are data dependent. if we see, for example, inflation increasing significantly, then the surprise will be they will have to do more before they pause you know, the moment the market is pricing in one more hike in july and then lower probability of something else or perhaps a hike in september. it is not a done deal. if we were to see inflation data lot stronger, then, you know, definitely the amount of hikes that the market is priced in would change

>> let me turn back to bi bidenomics and the policies he signed in have not come to fruition or hit the real economy for several months or into 2024. what is the most market moving aspect of biden domics in your view >> the u.s. has been pretty loose which has been a force behind the u.s. economy. the risk here is that impulse starts to fade away. that is the reason why we expect the u.s. economy to slow the starting point is still one of the most under appreciated forces in the u.s. economy and markets which is the u.s. is still running fairly looses fiscal stance. >> thank you so much for joining

us global investment strategist at pgim. coming up, actis vision and microsoft ceos take the stand in the bid to stop the ftc to block thei their deal and start your day with the daily open you can scan the qr code on your screen now to sign up.

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warm welcome back to "street signs. ceos of microsoft and activision claimed back on the deal

they were speaking at the federal court hearing an might the ftc request for an injunction the ceo said it would not make sense to offer call of duty on playstation and any move to make the popular game exclusive to the platform would cause a revolt from gamers arjun, they want this deal to go through. of course. what is the likelihood the ftc allows it? >> the ftc has been tough on big tech we know under lena khan, she is looking to block the deals under the acquisitions that is allowed the big position of power it is not going in on a good footing. microsoft and sony are making two arguments here it is fascinating.

we have thave seen this play oun the uk and europe. it is in court we are getting a ton of information. why is sony opposed to the deal? in 2021, call of duty brought in $800 million of revenue to sony in the u.s. only that is why there is such opposition what is interesting is in europe and in the uk, sony have been opposed to the deal on a big argument they feel if microsoft bought activision, they would withhold the game from the platform we learned from the court case so far is that playstation doesn't feel it is about excl exclusiveness. he said they are worried when microsoft owns activision, they could release a degraded version of call of duty on the platform. he is worried that when the next

generation of playstation console comes out, and when playstation has to share the development kit with the gaming companies, microsoft might find out the secret sauce of the playstation. microsoft's response is it makes no sense to withhold the call of duty argument. we heard that in the uk and europe we will not make it exclusive. the other thing is he doesn't like the idea of exclusive he said it is not something we like finally, the ceo of activision said we would not release a degraded game. >> and when you were here, the eu regulators allowed the deal to pass with concessions what were the concessions? >> the concessions were centered

on exclusiveness would they withhold from other gaming platforms this is the idea of cloud gaming netflix style of game where you can play games on multiple platforms without buying the console or disc, et cetera it was microsoft saying if the deal goes ahead, call of duty is available on multiple platforms of tplatforms. we talk about the degrading experience and the developer kits and microsoft potentially getting access to playstation secrets around the console there is more at stake in this case the concessions, if there are any, may be more than what the eu has asked for microsoft. >> this has been going on for so long, the potential deal i think investor appetite for it to go ahead has evolved a lot. where does it stand now? do microsoft shareholders want the deal to go through >> this is a hefty sum

$69 million to pay for $1 billion to pay for activision of the game they bought bungee for $3 billion. microsoft shares are on the fence. they pay a lot of money for the company and staking your future of gaming on the company maybe there is a deal here >> the ceo brought in to testify. >> there is the a.i. play and cloud play as well i think investors are happier with that high margin business than perhaps the experimental gaming in cloud. >> arjun, fascinating. we will leave it there a big day in terms of data we have been breaking the german cpi numbers. actual country level cpi number is coming up shortly we have u.s. gdp and the eurozone inflation print that

everyone is watching tomorrow and the lagarde comments in sintra it is interesting for the headline and core over there in terms of european markets, we are mixed. dax at the flat line ftse 100 is tilted under water cac 40 is up .50%. there is one name we are watching and that is renault having a good day today. switching to u.s. futures. this is the picture. we are leaning toward a moderately positive open s&p opening 7 points higher. dow 50 points higher nasdaq with positive micron results overnight. >> that is it for "street signs. i'm stjulianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up nt.ex

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the ""five@5. sticking to his script more rate hikes potentially coming that word from jay powell speaking overseas. could the usual summer slowdown in markets be a thing of the past? the historic signals suggest the ongoing momentum could actually roll on into july. speaking of momentum shares of micron movin