cnbc.com/otoh. latest installment is this week's debate. can president biden's strategy of embracing the term bidenomics work for him in the election join into the debate, let me know which side you agree with for now, that will do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts now. right now on "fast," nik shares heading sharper the stock is down 3% we're dialed into the call. plus, a micron meltdown. just 24 hours ago, investors were cheering a more than 5% post earnings pop, but the stock gave up those gains and then some today what the reversal says about the state of this stock. and later, fidelity jumps on the bitcoin bandwagon, disney tries to find some magic, and apple closes in on $3 trillion i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, karen finerman, dan nathan, guy

addaimy and tim seymour. we'll get to knee key in a moment, but first, we thought we'd ask our traders one simple question what chart tells the true tale of what's going on in the market dan, which chart did you choose? >> all right, so, i have a friend, liz young. she's on "the halftime report," our friend, collectively brilliant strategist over there at the sofi. she tweeted this out -- someone forwarded it over email to me, she tweeted out a chart of the s&p 500 versus where real rates are. so, that would be interest rates relative to inflation. i thought this was really interesting, because you see that diver jens. and guy has been talking about this a lot he's seen a lot of the performance in the s&p 500 is really multiple expansion. so, we've quoted where the s&p is trading, 19 timetimes, which above the five and ten-year averages, down there near 18

so, something's got to give between where the fed is br bribr bringing interest rates and where valuations are trading, so, i think this is a real sli interesting chart. and i think it could be the key to how stocks perform in the second half of the year when we have better clarity on inflation, where interest rates are going to go or stay, and really something's got to give with the stock market. >> yeah. something's got to give, meaning stocks have to come down >> or, you just see -- yes, i mean, i think that's probably it >> tim, do you think that's how something gives in this scenario >> i do. and i would point to a chart that's all about rates, as well, and i agree that real rates are way too low, s&p should not be trading at a forward multiple above where it was trading p pre-covid. so, dan's chart, liz young's chart, all great stuff i would show the two-year chart is one that we're within 15 bips of the high for this period, but we're within 15 bips of a

16-year high in two-year rates and you're back to 2006 or 2007. so, you're at an extraordinary place here for the consumer, and we saw jobless claims this morning, we saw gdp, upward revisions this morning that were probably consumer-based. they were better than people expected in terms of consumption level. but i'm looking at disposable income as a percentage, debt le levels almost 10%. i'm looking at deck coverage ratios at 17-year highs, looking at consumer credit that's up 12.5% over the last 12 months to 1.23 trillion or so. it's just -- you know, at some point, this is the problem that rates haven't been this high and they're going up off of zero so, equity valuations are reflected from the long end, which i think dan and liz are talking about, and i would just put the pressure on the consumer here i think the consumer is under a lot of pressure and i think -- we'll talk about retail later in the show with jerry, but this

has a lot of implications for retail stocks and even hard lines, soft lines and other places that have been defensive. >> i feel like it's a companion chart, because guy has the ten-year >> interesting that tim and i would be companions. we went to school together >> absolutely. >> the other night, tim -- we couldn't hear him. >> you said he had good hair -- >> he's the real deal. >> thank you >> sorry >> your chart? >> oh, i thought -- i didn't realize you were going to come to me. my chart is, again, it is a companion to tim's, and it's two tens, which is now either side of a 1% inversion, and i think six of the last, well, basically since fed tightening cycles have occurred, it's predicted six basically recessions out of seven. a magnitude that we're seeing now, 100% inversion since the 1950s has led to a recession, i think 80% of the time. and with the steepness of it

now, we haven't seen that in the last 40 something years. and typically, the range is 15 months from where it started and we're right there. i think august, september, october puts you in the window i'm not an economist, but i think people were sort of not rooking at this closely enough to indicate what it's going to mean in the months to come >> there's no shot in your head that the markets see -- are pricing in a recession at this point? >> if the market is pricing in a recession -- >> or that we had priced in a recession? >> yeah. listen is there going to be a soft landing? have they been able to navigate this, does this inversion mean nothing? we've been inverted for 13, 14 months, 100 basis points probably headed at this point to 125, could that be an anomaly, absolutely the market says that right now i just don't believe that's going to be the case >> karen, what is your chart >> yeah, so, i had sort of a different take on the question and my chart is just a very long look back at the s&p and, to

me -- you know, what does that tell you that you want to be in the s&p over time. and when you step back, sure, there's dips in it, there's the snl crisis, the bubble of the first dot com bubble, there's great financial crisis, the pandemic, and i am long into every single crisis, always long and i just think you can see from this chart just the power of compounding it's -- wasn't to be in the market so, to me, that's sort of the -- i don't know how it's all going to work, i just want to stay long, so, that's the chart. >> i think what you're saying is the most important thing about anybody who wants to invest a dollar in the market i heard you say it on her podcast, actually, the other way, and honestly, it was great. >> "how she does it. >> you guys did talk about this. and i actually think it's really important. the show is called "fast money" here and a lot of us grew up as traders, some people grow up as investors. but your point is amazing. look at the last three years

the s&p topped out in february 2020 at 3600, went down 35% in a black swan event to 2200 or whatever the heck it is and here we are now at 4400 we were 4800 if you just invested the same dollar amount every month, every qua quarter, you'd be doing fantastic. but the "fast money" component of this, if you are tuning into this, you like the day-to-day, you like the action, you like the different stories, and sometimes, so, we get in the weeds a little bit about that and i always say to people that if you are invested in the long-term, you take advantage of that compounding nature, but sometimes it's like a portion of your investable assets, you like the action the trading part of it is, that's where you're yolo-ing stuff, crypto and stuff like that that is the most important takeaway of your chart, too, you always have to be in the market. >> yes right. i can't figure out when to sell, and then when to get back in there's no shot of me getting that right both ways >> in terms of your take on what the squiggly does next, it is

what >> i don't know. and i don't think it's a monolith >> you don't care -- has tim outlined, if the consumer is week, that impacts a lot of your trades in terms of the retail component of your trade, like a lowe's, for instance, or -- i mean -- >> yes >> t.j. max, you know, all these -- >> right, also, though, the market is a forward-looking mechanism, right and so, it shouldn't be shocked every time, where the same news makes it go down again and again. and sometimes the market looks through. >> may i ask you -- it's your show, you typically ask the questions. will you give me this one -- >> yes >> maybe i missed -- i wasn't here yesterday, so, maybe you discussed it yesterday, but is squiggly something, is that some new financial term that i'm not aware of you used it a few times now. >> i wasn't the first to bring up the squiggly. >> the squigglies. >> the squigglies is, you know, the -- >> the longer term trajectory of

the market -- >> so it's a squiggly. >> sometimes they're a little squiggly, meaning -- >> there's a really important, point -- mel, this is one thing that's really important. a lot of investors make a lot of decisions, like, bad decisions at highs and at lows, and i think that that's one of the reasons why we try to figure out where the next squiggly is going to be, because you don't want to be -- >> you did call the squiggly at the end of '21 >> right, but you don't want to be buying into a mania, right before you know where that thing might kind of deflate a little bit despite the fact that the long-term is bottom left upper right for the whole thing, right? and that's why we talk about a lot of these rotations and everything and when you use that express -- i love tim's take on this quickly, too when you think about all of the charts that we started with, okay, if we know over history, like, the 15 months from the time that the 210 inverts that we're likely to have a recession -- well, we're kind of there for all that sort of stuff. sometimes you throw out the forward-looking sort of thing. i don't know

i know that he agreed with me, that's why i wanted to get tim's take in a way. i think that -- >> yeah, i mean -- >> but if you think that the october lows discounted the recession that hasn't happened yet, well, that -- you're doing that wrong in my opinion >> our next guest has his own tale on what's happening in the markets today and how to play it going into the second half of the year tony dwyer, good to see you. >> squiggly. >> what's the next squiggly, tony, that's the question. >> so, i love the conversation first, you know, i was looking before i came on at what is getting priced in as a recession, so -- 54% of the s&p 500 is trading more than 20% below its 52-week high so, there's still been a lot of weakness in the market, despite the 14% move in the s&p 500. and just, mel, speaking to the panel's discussion about earnings yield, or two-year yield versus the earnings yield, think about this

when you look at the $220 earnings estimate for 2023 operating earnings, that's the consensus estimate i'm at 210 if that $220 number, your earnings yield, which for the viewers is the inverse of the pe, so, that way you can compare it directly to interest rates, riskless rate of return, the six-month t-bill has given you 542. you are getting a 5% using the 220 number on an earnings yield again, e versus p and on my number of 210, which may be optimistic, because i'm still in the recession camp, that gives you 475. so you have a riskless rate of return that's at least 42 basis points above a consensus number that's higher than my number and my number is probably a little bit too high so, we're in a squiggly environment, where a lot of stocks have already come down quite as bit from their peak and they're sitting there. the average stock is only up -- not average stock, the median stock in the nyse this year so far is up 3% so it's frustrating a lot of fund managers i talk to.

myself included. >> so, tony, it's tim. so, let me try to synthesize the previous conversation and what you just said, because i think what you're saying is that actually a -- you know, an equal weighed s&p is not up that much. and maybe that's interesting and the last conversation was really about, how can you be a long-term investor, which we all recognize you want to be in terms of impempirical results or time, at a time when apple, the biggest stock in the world in the market is up 51% since january 4th. how do you bring those two concepts together? >> and it 's bigger than the entire market cap of the russell 2,000. so, tying that in, it doesn't take a lot of selling or a lot of profit taking in those megacap stocks to give a bid to the broad market the broad market is nowhere near where that s&p 500 is and still, i know it's not real popular

here's an interesting thing, guys we keep hearing that -- we're been talking about a recession for x number of months, it's been about a year. the median duration between the initial inversion of the six-month to ten-year treasury curve and the onset of a recession is 11 months so, this is the most talked about recession of all time. how about the 21-month lead time going into the great financial crisis i think one of the issues that we're seeing here, everybody is waiting for this kind of svb moment, this catastrophe, or this lehman moment how about we just get an old school money contraction there's three ways you can get money for the next leg of growth you can earn it, we're already past peak earnings, that's the whole story. you can get it from a bank and we're now they're not lending, after the regulatory fear, lending standards are tight. or you can get it on the

investments. and you are still well below where you were from an all-time high i don't have a problem with -- you don't have to bet against it the question is, do you want to bet with it, when i can't find the money that's going to fund the next level of growth, and i got a riskless rate of return that's at least 42 basis points above the earnings yield and the s&p. >> tony, always good to see you. thank you. >> thanks for having me, mel have a happy fourth. >> you, too. tony dwyer i mean, good point on the six-month riskless 5.5%, guy. >> tony always makes good points, number one and i think what he's saying, is don't get fooled, the fact that nothing's happened, don't be fooled ed by it, because back i the day, it took months to get to a level i don't he's suggesting we're going back there but i'm guilty of this all this 250i78 i think things could happen a lot faster than they have, but the fact it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean that it won't and again, in my opinion, it's

almost a foregone conclusion that the market, the stock market is starting to take into consideration 500 basis points of hikes and a yield curve where we're currently trading at >> so, just in terms of soft landing, hard landing, i think you're talking about a ckerri strug landing -- >> oh, where she faked it -- >> i don't think she faked it. she's a fan of the show, by the way. sorry, kerri huge not anymore. >> knee injury or something? >> ankle injury and then still, you know, competed, she got a perfect ten. >> she got good enough >> good enough >> she was -- >> come on >> tim, you think -- >> tim's going to chime in tim's trying to curry favor with all the gymnasts out there >> i think we're going -- we're about to go to july 4th weekend and celebrate our country's birthday and feel, you know, a lot of pride about all our achievements and we're going off one of the most decorated oly olympic athletes of our time >> i am.

>> on, you know, tcereal box you can't go after her sticking the landing, that implies that jerome powell, he deserves a gold medal. >> yeah. yeah well done there, tying all the metaphors together and i think the presumption here is that the fed has done just enough to get us back to be tight enough on policy to get us to 2% without causing a recession. it's never happened. and the fed, who admittedly is waiting for data and is always behind the curve, they won't say that but everybody else will you can't have it both ways here we have more to go and there's pain still to be had, but to say that we've done just enough to exz cute the perfect landing without limping off the mat, i don't think so >> all right, let's take a check on shares of nike. volatile afterhours. reporting a beat on the top line, but missing earns. stock's up 3.25% the conference call is under way.

mike shas all the action >> first earnings miss for nike in three years or so by a penny, 66 cents versus 67 worth noting, the estimates for this quarter just reported was 81 cents as of the end of february two quarters in a row where they've had to downscale expectations the stock taking it a little bit tough. below the fur face, there's progress on some of the problem areas investors have been worried about. china and inventories. big comeback in china. that was better than anticipated. you did see invenn toirps flat on a one-year basis. down sequentially, down in terms of volumes basically nike on the call, john donahue, the ceo, saying, we're back to help when it comes to where we are in inventories. also highlights things, like they always do, like digital and direct sales, very fast growth there. digital up 26% it is a 23% of the overall

revenue base, probably still some squeezing of the wholesale channel going on right there, as well so -- it seems as if, you know, they're trying to make the case out there that the inflection point has been passed in terms of improvement on inventory and some of the global sales mid 30s percent growth for jordan brand in north america and internationally, so, clearly, they're saying the franchise is well intact, even if it's a little bit sloppy on the financial side gross mar gin down 140 basis points in the quarter, and that accounts for the earnings miss >> mike, thank you mike santoli had to make a dent in the inventory, that was through a lot of discounting >> right foot locker had that disastrous quarter, which i'm quite familiar with, because i owned it for a long time, but nike went down in sympathy with that. inventory was the problem there. i think this is somewhat digested shouldn't be surprising at all and it's not is surprising, tim

had a good call on this, but a little overbought. >> yeah, we spent a few minutes talking about the s&p at 19 or 20 times, here is a stock that's growing earnings in the teens, on a percentage basis. that gross margin trend, you want to keep an eye on it, because this is something, given the inflationary environments and all the things we've been very in tune with over the last couple of years or so, but at 29 times, it's expensive for a company that's maybe executing okay, you know, there's a company that's always traded at a premium in the market. but i don't think there's anything where you want to run out and go by a stock like this right now after that quarter >> tim, your call into the quarter, you were long puts into the quarter, correct closing that out >> no, i'm short the stock >> you're short the stock. okay >> i've been short the stock for, you know, eight weeks or so, after it shot up into the near 130s. and the view was valuation, the view was -- everything foot locker told us they're not the tale of nike, the dog, but they are certainly a canary, when they're 55% to 65% of their mix is nike

look, again, i get back to where i think we are with soft lines, even soft lines in premium brands like nike, where you just aren't going to see the consumer continue to have the ability to buy here they warned they were here they've done a great job turning around the inventory story, but back to that 28 1/2 times the street has -- what are you willing to pay you shouldn't be paying a premium. it's kind of in line with its long-term history. i think you should be paying a discount i don't stay here forever, but i think it goes back to 100. >> all right, coming up, a chip change of heart. shares of micron reversing course after yesterday's upbeat outlook. so, why did the semi stock end the day in the red plus, crypto's come one, come all fidelity looking to launch a bitcoin etf, but with the s.e.c. still blocking the gates, do any of these funds have a future we'll debate that when "fast ne rurns

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welcome back to "fast money. a major reversal for micron today. the chip maker, which had been up 5.3% after its earnings report last night, ended the day down more than 4%. micron is up almost 30% this year, but has been under performing the broader chip space over the past month or so.

guy, you were talking about this in the call. >> 55% year over year decline in revenue. i was actually paying attention, the chippest thing you can do, yesterday. and -- looking at the numbers, what is it higher? made no sense to me. most things don't, as you know this actually does make sense to me you layer on top what's going on in china, the headwinds there, and now it starts to make a little more sense. you look at this company, we talk about all the time, as much as we would like to say they're through the come modization face of their company, they're not. and you're seeing it play out before your eyes so, it's not surprising that it's lower it should actually be lower than it currently is. there will be a level to buy it, but this was not a particularly strong quarter >> yesterday, the reaction immediately was good, revenues came in better and the guidance wasn't -- >> that's what -- maybe it was a guidance thing, i don't know i'm telling you, i was watching in real time and i'm like, this doesn't make -- i don't know what people are leeking at necessarily. i think the proper reaction is the reaction we're seeing now.

>> yeah. tim? >> well, you know, the bottom may be in in terms of stocks and inventories, maybe starting to see some stabilization in demand, but how excited are you at the top, or for the top, is my point and i guess, you know, i don't think -- i don't think micron really has underperformed that massively, the semis, which have outperformed it's underperformed by about 7%, if you look at the stocks over the last six months, and i just don't think there's a lot to be excited about. i think there's margin pressure, too, that i think that's what the street's responding to, and i think you're seeing folks, you know, follow through and worry that margins continue to get worse. so, i -- i think that's the reaction here. it's that things are probably better, but this is a glass half empty, not full. >> significant headwind from china is what the ceo said and i'm surprised, at that time, that the stock didn't have more of a reaction to that. >> yeah, it's interesting. tim mentioned this the other day on the show and carter has been talking about the semis on their relative performance to the s&p

500 and they've not been able to make a new high. and when you look at the smh, the etf that tracks the philadelphia semiconductor indirin dire deck, you see right now, nvidia, which is up 200% or something on the year, it's gained half a trillion dollars in market cap, is 18%, 19% of the weight of that index so, when you talk about china and you think about the boost that we know that nvidia got out of chinese buyers of these chips in front of these bans, there's risk because the rest of the space is actually deteriorating a little bit from somes of that early outperformance to me, the whole sector is sitting in the hands of that stock right now and i just don't see it kind of sticking around here for too much longer >> still short >> little bit. >> little bit? >> yeah. >> i mean, you know, shorts -- they get smaller as -- >> yeah. a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next crowding into crypto

more firms lining up to launch bit coin etfs and other products will regulators finally budge? and what does it mean for the trades and we're diving back into nike earnings. how inventories, supply chains, and even theft are impacting the athletic giant you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin putting in another strong day, staying above the key 30,000 left, as fidelity throws its name back in the ring for a bitcoin etf.

the filed today for a trust. is s.e.c. denied the first application more than a year ago. cme group announcing that it plans to launch a bitcoin ratio futures product on july 31st pending a review by regulators seems like everybody's diving in. >> stuart mentioned this to me the other day, i thought this was interesting. look at the enforcement action, the regulation that came after all the other things, and now, all the organizations, like, the blackrocks and the fidelities, the regulators know very well, are coming in after all that and i thought that was a really interesting way to think about it, and think about what's happened to bitcoin since all of this has transpired from the lows in the fxt period late last year, to all the stuff over the last couple of months or so, so, again, i think it probably gives some credence to the space, and i think blackrock and fidelity -- they have a whole crypto wallet built into their sort of thing. you know, it probably puts a

floor to some degree in at least the underlying assets. >> gptc. >> gptc is just a rocketship so, the discount is still pretty big, though. 28% discount to nav. now, it used to be gptc was one of the only ways to playt it it traded at a big premium the premium days are over. you won't need to do that. probably going to be a handful but still, 28% discount is a lot. however, this run is so big, i think it's going to take a little time for this one to get unlocked >> let's say all these etfs get approved, tim, is that bad for coinbase other ways to invest without buying the actual, you know, crypto >> yeah, possibly. i mean, i think the question really is, what's the special sauce, what's the value that they can provide up and beyond what all these other platforms are doing? to the extent that they are fighting the s.e.c. as we speak, claiming they don't even have the regulatory authority to be acting as they are

they -- they hope to throw this lawsuit out, by the way, coinbase is up almost 60% off of that s.e.c. bottom of whatever that was three weeks ago yeah, look, i -- coinbase is -- was a first mover and certainly its first mover, you know, kind of branding around them, so -- but i think other people will be able to do the same thing. right now, coinbase is certainly not trading as it was correlated to bitcoin historically. coming up, digging in on nike's numbers our next guest breaks down the results and the big threat facing retail. and time to take a bite out of apple the chart master thinks the tech giant's record gains may be about to sour. don't go anywhere. ba itwckn o.♪ (upbe ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back to "fast money. let's get a check on how the markets ended the day. with just one trading day left in the quarter, the dow jumped more than 250 points the s&p up half a percent and the nasdaq finishing flat, but up 30% this year, on base for its best first half since 1983 and look at some of the newest market entrants. three ipos started trading

today. savers value village trading 30%. kodiak gas services down by 2% and fidelis insurance falling nearly 8%. nike shares are down in the afterhours six reporting a miss in three years, but beat revenue estimates for the seven time in a row, albeit modestly let's bring in jerry storch to discuss nike and more. he is known for running toys "r" us and hudson's bay. thank you for joining us >> my pleasure >> what is your take on a stock like nike, as we enter a period where there are question marks around the consumer's ability to keep spending. >> look, unbelievable brand, fantastic future, you know, they make their own product, what -- you know, that's the ideal, being a retailer but we're enters a time that's going to be quite challenging for consumers. we continue to see persistent inflation, balance sheets are stressed we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow with student loans, but that's not good,

either so generally speaking, i'm not sold that the consumer is healthy, and i'm concerned about what these are going to look like as we get closer to christmas. >> how about the argument there are some consumers who are not as impact and they will keep spending does nike not fall into that category of the kind of retailer where they will keep spending? does it have to be higher up the food chain, so to speak? >> i don't think there's anywhere that's totally safe there's no doubt that a strong brand like nike is in much better position than a weaker brand. that being said, though, consumers are simply spending less on things, on goods and when you inflation adjust retail sales, it's been eight, nine straight months that sales have been negative so, buying less goods than consumers have in the past we said, okay, migrant to services, and there's no doubt the airlines are strong. you heard that from delta, accommodations are strong. but even that is slowing down on a year over year day sis and most of the so-called increase in services spending is actually

being spent on health care and rent, you know, on housing area, where consumers have to pay for products that have gone up in price, as well as a pandemic rebound >> it's karen. thanks for being on. i was surprised to read that 25 to 49-year-olds have a big portion of student debt. i was actually thinking it would be lower so, that was interesting, as i'm trying to look somewhere, where to hide, i've been hiding some in very, very high end retail like a louis vuitton >> that's been stressed in the united states. a big part of the growth was taking place in the aspirational segment. these are younger than your traditional, you know, older people who are spending in their retirement years on very expensive goods. these are people who might by a pair of very expensive gucci sneakers, if you want to think about nike sneakers and gucci sneakers but not do a lot of that

so, we've seen that fall off a cliff in recent months as they are just not spending that kind of money and even though it's true, the 80/20 rule, most of the money in luxury is spent by the richest people, it doesn't help when you lose the 20. so, we see that taking place by and large, the other part of the retail luxury market, the other high end customers, keep spending as long as the stock market does well because that's the highest correlation anywhere in retailing, between stock performance and luxury spending. but if the stock market stalls out, i would expect that to stall out, as well >> jerry, we haven't seen the economy take that much of a dip so far, i mean, in terms of being in a recessioning and yet we're seeing high levels of shrink to the point that retailers are citing it as an issue on their conference calls. how do you expect that sort of problem to shape up as we go into more of the downturn mode, when people are losing their jobs, and the consumer is under more than he or she is right

now. >> well, it's been growing double digits, during the pandemic and in recent years, in recent year, as well, so, it's probably closing in on $100 billion in terms of a tax on the retail system, like retailers need another headache in addition to supply chain increases, raw material cost increase, now we have growing theft taking place but most of that is organized crime. you have to keep that in mind. and why is organized crime increased so much? well, it's easier to fence the goods. the rise of online marketplaces have certainly fueled the ability to liquidate the products very rapidly. and additionally, the laws have changed, making the risk that if you get caught, it's much ress likely you're going to serve time, so, the risk/benefit has gotten more in favor of organized crime. they have been doing more stealing, trucks off the port, trains, warehouses, and just slash and grab in stores always took place in retail before, but it's definitely

increased dramatically, and there is a new law that went into place just this week, that's supposed to make it more transparent on the online marketplaces who is selling what, so, it's not supposed to be as easy to sell those goods, but i dohave a lot of confidence of the crooks in their ability to react they've been moving to p to p exchanges, the so-called dark web, where they can sell these goods and continue to thrive, so, i you tthink it's going to p going. >> all right, jerry, good to see you, thank you >> my pleasure. we are getting headlines out of the nike call on guidance executives saying expect full-year 2024 reported revenue to grow mid single digits, according to the conference call the stock is down by 3%, so, we're going to watch this very closely. not sure how this shapes up versus what consensus was for the guidance, but we will check that out. meantime, coming up, not a lot of magic left in this stock,

why one analyst is saying it's a whole new world for disney and ain't looking pretty where they say this one is heading next about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf... sometimes. take control of your financial future to empower what's next.

welcome back to "fast money.

call of the day here on disney, downgrading the stock. analysts saying it is too soon to call a bottom in the stock. disney shares finishing just barely in the green today, up only 2% on the year. really not much of a reaction to a downgrade here, tim. >> well, it's a at two-year lows what do you want i'm not saying that -- i don't know the ratings history on the analysts, but it's not a shock that disney's streaming business has been stagnating, and it's not a profitable business. i mean, i would push back on this, though, i'd push back on the international and domestic theme park business is crushing it i would push back on margins that i think are improving the company's gained some rationalization in terms of the streaming business and i don't think it's growth at all costs differentiating of the bundle and what you're getting there,

i'll let others decide on that disney's a brand and certainly at times thought to be the best or some of the best out there, so -- again, to me, at these levels, and let's be clear, the stock's at a covid low level here, so with a business that's significantly healthier than where it was at that point, i realize markets react to sentiment and certainly to covid low, might not have even priced in some of the negative cash flow dynamics yet, though we thought we did >> interesting this is -- i hear tom rogers' voice in this note, and who is that person, the trb on the halftime report -- >> jthe josh brown >> is that -- there's no reason to say that, it's like pin number these are all things -- so, they're not really divulging anything new doesn't mean they're wrong, though, necessarily, and what tom said for awhile, i mean, this is just a floundering business netflix specifically is eating their lunch. we played that game the other day, the would you rather game

you did a really odd one the netflix, i forget, it was odd. but we talked about -- >> it with usas a home builder. >> you got all upset -- >> you were up in my grill about that >> i think 84 traded down to in december of '22, that feels like it's got a bulls eye on its back coming up, apple looking all gold and delicious is this one about to fall far, far from the tree? the chart master is doubling down on this short call. the reasons, straight ahead. "fast money" is back in two.

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all funny here another check on nike here fiscal q-1 revenue, up low single digits. improvement in gross margin. it expects full-year 2024 gross margins to expand 140 to 160 basis points on reported basis the stock is down 3.4%, so, not too much reaction so far to this guidance tim, what are your take on what the company has said so far?

>> well, i -- i don't believe as great of a brand that it is that they're bullet proof to consumption trends and especially as you get into peril. it's about margins that i think are weakening a bit. they've done a great job avoiding mass promotions, and i think it's about valuation as i said, it just doesn't get away from me on the upside the trends aren't going to improve dramatically and in fact, i think it's still about figuring out where the bottom is on the trends. they didn't give you any reason to feel that their business is strengthening here. turning to apple, which closed at a record high for a third day in a row the tech giant inching closer to $3 trillion market cap where does the chart master stand? let's bring in carter braxton worth of worth charting. you're still negative? >> yeah, just don't buy into what is considered a very steep uncorrected angle. sequencing is important and as strong as it's been, perpetual

motion doesn't exist we're getting into that kind of thing. but what's remarkable and we'll see this next is how poor apple has been in terms of its seconder to. in terms of what to do, if you are long and sold none, look, i put it here on the screen, sell some if you are long and sold some already, sell some more. if you are not involved, do you put new money to work? if you think that's a good idea, i'll take that other side of the bet. if you are short, you press them at least that's how i see it but let's look at the charts and try to figure out the way forward together this is a comparative chart and this is important in a sense that this is where we were at the end of q-3 september 30, 2022 and what's remarkable, despite all of apple's efforts, it is lagging its sector and lagging dramatically the fang index. and you can see that there and so as good as it's been, it's not actually generatingal fa,

compared to its peer group let's look at a relative chart, not a comparative chart. it's apple relative to xlk, to its sector, and we see it's been going straight up, that's the blue line, but look what's happened since september 30. we've started to dip i think that period has been under way since september. we'll carry until we get down to that trend line. you'll see it in the next iteration. i think ultimately, we'll get down all the way to that uptrend line on the rsi chart. final chart. apple itself, what do we know? we know it is -- has just made slight new highs it is in a deep, uncorrected advance. and again, back to sequencing, when you're ascending in steeper and steeper angle, the risks can keep going increase what is called a correction

it's in the word it implies that something's incorrect about the assent if you call it a dip or a kregs or a decline or a drop or a selloff, doesn't matter what word you want to use, that's what's likely sooner >> just quickly, carter, if you want to trim your apple position, but still want to be in technology, which stock would you potentially rotate into? >> well, i would either do it through the group, do xlk. or pick up something that's -- that's had a big move that has dipped a little bit. certain semiconductors, i would do the smh, or, you know, frankly, i think intel, a real dog, is starting to bottom >> huh carter, thank you. carter braxton worth he self-would you rathered, by the way. interesting he would choose intel over apple at this point, tim. would you agree with that? >> he did call it a dog, doesn't he

i think you have a dynamic with intel -- this reminds me -- listen to carter, he's a wordsmith and he's breaking down, he's doing wordsmithing what correction means. yesterday, two days ago, you asked, what is the difference between, i don't know, a laggard and an underperformer, or something like that. and in intel's case, it's not that it's a laggard, they have broken elements of their business that have not necessarily been corrected overnight, but on their way to correcting and they'll be competing in some of these hot spots. that's kind of the reason i think intel is something i can own here and it doesn't -- you know, dog versus apple, i mean, i -- apple against the smh or against the qs makes more sense. >> all right, options traders are a little bit more constructive on the stock, at least in the short-term. mike khouw's got the action. mike >> yeah, so, we did see apple as the second-busiest single stock option today, mostly short call buying, most of that expiring at the end of the week.

the largest activity we saw that does not expire tomorrow was the july 14th 197.5 calls, we saw that trading i will say while the stock hit these all-time highs, the options are trading essentially at five-year lows in terms of implied volatility people are probably just a fear of missing out, cheap built to the upside i don't know that this is necessarily chasing the stock. >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, tune into the full show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade.

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim seymour? >> yeah, gold has not loved the fed or interest rates moving higher, but i think gdx is at the bottom of an uptrend and you buy it here. >> chairwoman? >> yes, for reasons having nothing to do with carter's, i look at things totally differently but came to the same conclusion sell some apple calls. >> dan >> i look at things exactly the way carter does and i see what he sees and when i think about what mike khouw had to say about the options in apple, they are cheap, looking out to august 4th

expiration, 2.5% of the stock price to buy that at the money put. that looks like a cheap way. >> guy >> crack spreads are very favorable for vlo, melissa >> thank you for watching "fast. cnb documentary "china's corporate spy war" starts right now. and as an engineer at ge aviation passes through a security perimeter at the company's sprawling cincinnati-area campus, nothing seems out of the ordinary. he works with some of the company's most closely guarded trade secrets. and now ge executives say they want to see him. but what the ge engineer doesn't know is that his bosses have grown suspicious. the room is wired and waiting down the hall is a team of agents from the fbi. soon, those fbi agents will tell the engineer