>> right now, it's super strong partly because people worry these internal combustion engine ferrari's famous for, are going to disappear we'll see what happens in the ev landscape. >> i love it thank you. and thank you for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starting right now. contessa, thank you so much. welcome to "closing bell." this make or break hour begins with a first half to remember for stocks and whether this market melt up can keep going in the second half of the year. we'll ask the wharton schooschool's jeremy siegel. inflation read comes in lighter than expected. stocks reacting almost immediately and it's a broad-based move for the s&p 500. the index pacing for its best half since 2019. a strong week for energy, industrial and financials and

some more cyclical industries. nasdaq on the way to its best first six months since 1983. an incredible 31% gain apple, big part of that. hitting 3 trillion in market cap. going for its first close above that level we'll track it as we head towards the end of this session. brings us to our talk of the tape the broadening rally and what it says about where your money will go from here let's ask jeremy he is the wharton school professor and as usual, he's live for us today down in philadelphia professor, welcome nice to see you. >> good to see you, scott. >> we're putting a good first e crossed over that for the year and really, the economic data, the economic activity, real

growth has certainly exceeded the fed's expectations, everyone's expectations. i think what's going on with tech, tech investors, it's a win-win for them it's a long asset. we have a recession, tech is mostly immune and if we have a recession, the fed will stop raising interest rates or maybe lower interest rates that's really good for our long-lived asset that is we have so everyone, part piling into t because they say it's a win-win no matter what happens with the economy. of course what's happening is the non-tech at 14 and 15 times earnings and tech is selling at 25, 30, 35 times earnings. so that gap has certainly grown a lot recently and takes into account that scenario. but hey. the beat goes on and i think the whole market is saying who's

afraid of the big, bad fed >> fed is the beat going to go on for the second half? how long can this continue >> well, it can continue a lot longer now, you know, there's a problem for long-term investors because it's hard to tell the turn but really the momentum is still there i think if you're a short-term trader. i think it's going to take a real weak economic report or some earnings that really you know is the opposite of what we saw with nvidia. really a disappointment to shake it by the way, usually it's not one thing. it shakes then comes back and it's usually a second one that says the tide is turning and at this particular point, we don't have number one or number two so one of the old sayings in wall street scott, maybe the trend your friend. >> yeah. >> it's a new trend.

trend has changed. as you know. the trend has been up. do you foresee a catch up trade? you said tech has been the winner and pointed to some areas of the market that are much cheaper. is there going to be a catch up trade where the laggards are going to have a catch up >> i think there are, i think what's going to happen you know if the fed overtightens, you know i've been warning about the fed overtightening you know scott, what really confuses me is since the meeting two and a half weeks ago, every single inflation indicator including wages has come in at or below expectations and yet the rhetoric of the fed has gotten even more aggressive. it's like a war on growth. oh, we can't have this much growth and you know, i think that's a

very dangerous way to look at the economy. we want growth in the economy. we want noninflationary growth so you know, i am still saying in the second half, there are more risks on the downside than on the upside but then again, that whole saying about trends can continue a lot longer. i don't see the short run trend breaking at any point soon >> but professor, look, i don't have -- i have the greatest amount of respect for the fed and don't mean this negatively who cares what they say. let's watch what they do they have to protect their own credibility. that's why they continue to talk tough. but we know if inflation continues to come down at the speed in which you suggest that it is, that maybe they're not going to do what they suggest. they have no choice to talk the

way they are now the market just has an ability to get past it >> well, actually, if you take a look now at fed funds and make a risk adjustment, it's really toward the end of the year caught up to two or three more hikes. in the fed it's not that much of a deviation. now i agree with you completely. something i've said. all i think the fed you know has to see is a weak jobs report i think we're expecting on something like 200,000 next friday supposedly coming in at 50,000 or what happens to become a negati negative that turns things around and we have seen some softening in the labor market yes, jobless claims were down yesterday but the trend is up. we know that unemployment rate jumps .3 last time again, still very, very low. we get much less talk about

shortages of labor than we did a year ago so we see that trend my feeling is that you know, we know that there are some headwinds in the second half of the year we talk about student loan repayments there's ups strike possibility by the way which would really slow things down there are those headwinds. i just don't want to see the fed you know saying oh, we have to see a big jump in unemployment before we turn the ship around because it just doesn't, the ship doesn't turn around that fast >> the other idea, you've been thinking there might be cuts at some point this year are you off of that thought? because the market is. >> definitely off that >> for the first time arguably this year. you look at fed funds futures, professor, we have basically no

chance of pricing in of cuts there's like 1% for november the fed funds futures market has gotten off of that in a big way. have you >> i'm not ruling it out i'm not, and don't forget. the fed funds features market, we know what it looked like at the end of 2021. it priced in 50 basis points for the next year and it was 500 so you know, it all depends on what this data turns out to be and my thing is we know about this coming into a political year seems like we're already in a political year if we get some soft data if we get some rise in unemployment, we get a negative jobs report, we're going to have, going to have political pressure and you could say rightfully so. dual mandate people are going to say look at.

if you really look at true inflation, we talked about that. if you put real shelter, real rental prices in, the data i've been processing on that has gotten down to that 2% year-over-year the lag data the fed has is still four, four and a half et cetera, but they know that lower debt is going to come in the second half of the year. i'm not going to rule it out you're right the market thinks a low probability but i've seen that a lot before the surprises in the market >> we'll see let's broaden the conversation, professor. bring in cameron dawson of new edge wealth. nice to see you again. welcome back you heard the professor. what are your thoughts something probably tells me you disagree >> i think the first step is i think we would disagree of the probability of cuts meaning we

see no probability of a recession given the pace of data we've seen through the first half of this year. it's remained resoundingly strong there are pockets of waeakness but really not enough to give the fed wiggle room to ease policy the thing that's surprised us the most is the ability for valuations to diverge from yields that's why we were more cautious going into the year saying if the fed stays higher and tighter for longer, that kind of keeps a lid on valuations. that has not played out at all you've seen the nasdaq valuation go from 20 times to 32 times this year which is just a reflection of the fed is not the only game in town. >> at what point do you follow what is the perceived message of this market and change your view and get more positive on where we might go? the market's telling you something by that. what do you take from it >> the way we've been expressing this caution is to be able to

say we need to remain fully invested we are long-term investors but we do it through quality instead of chasing the lowest quality highest beta parts of the market specu speculative areas. those have been the areas that have led >> like megacap is speculative >> there have been pockets that have been very high quality names that we have exposure to we're equal weight a lot of the big names. a lot of the areas you've seen impressive rerating is not where we're going to chase >> we did our cnbc delivering alpha survey with some spinteret resulting. 61% say we've entered a new bull market 31 say it's a bear market rally. what do you make of that the 39 or 61 >> i think that it looks somewhere in between the reason i say that is i don't think we have the escape philosophy for a trending market that looks like a market like we had in 2019 or like we had in 2017 where we've seen this

market rerate. we think there are upside adjustments. we think earnings estimates are too low for the second quarter and the year there's good things happening on the earnings front, but can we push into a new valuation paradigm >> so professor, you've got a good student here who says you know what, in a current environment where rates are, valuations make no sense and the professor says what? >> you could say some of the tech valuations may but when you see the cyclical value, mid and small cap selling at 15 and 16 times earnings and if you are saying there is going to be no recession in the second half of this year, boy, i think those are goeng to be buys i think those are priced for a recession. i think the big cap tech stocks are a price where a recession doesn't matter and you know it's

a win-win what's happening on the economy. what's happening in ai and if the fed does lower interest rates, you know, that's just icing on the cake. this is where the momentum is. momentum is a very powerful factor short run in the market. the valuation is the most powerful creator of wealth in the long run in the market and again, outside of tech is where the values are i see today >> response? >> 100% we would agree with that if you look at the equal weight index it's trading at about 15.5 times so when we've been putting new capital to work in recent months, we've been focusing on equal weight the problem with that is that you're getting a lot of financials and energy and financials are cheap the banks are trading below book value but it's still a little bit of a falling knife we'd like to see a little improvement in the trends in those areas so we are finding

ways to get access to this market where we're not chasing the most expensive parts >> do you think there's going to be a catch up from some of the laggards in the second half? as long as the story about the economy remains reasonably posi positive >> yes, i think that is the opportunity is that the cyclicals can continue to get a bid. those names are the most sensitive to underlying economic growth so revisions go higher for the cyclicals to get the next leg higher >> professor, the other question we asked among many in this survey, the best returns for the remainder of 2023. i thought the results here were really, really interesting 26% short-term treasuries. 26% also said the s&p 500. now i focus on this because you know for the first time in what feels like forever, there was competition for stocks and that was in the fixed income market treasuries in the like then in the money markets for example,

but now you have a view that yes, 26% say short-term treasuries but also 26% say the s&p 500. so has the risk reward gotten better for stocks do you think versus elsewhere >> well i think it harkens back to your question of how many people think it's going to be a bull and bear market if we're going to be a bear market or if stocks are flat, you're going to be better off in treasuries flat stocks. as they go down, of course you're going to be better off in treasury so i think that matching that after but my you know research right now, i see stock returns long-term three to five years being 7% per year. 8% per year. and treasuries now are five and a quarter. i think they're going to be going down not up

so i still think there's the advantage to stocks for the long-term investor >> what do you want to say to that do you feel like it's going to get tougher at some point to make the case for treasuries over stocks? >> yes, of course. because as we're starting to see, if you start ending the fed's hiking cycle, eventually you'll have to roll over those treasuries so the reality is for long-term investors, you need to remain invested in stocks but what's interesting to the professor's point is that he's thinking 7 to 8% returns that's about half of what we've had over the last ten years. that speaks to where valuation isn't a great tool in the short-term but it's a very helpful tool when you're predicting out five, ten years plus so it may not tell you that the a rally's going to end today it tells you you need to lower your expectations over the long-term. >> have you lowered your expectations by virtue of those numbers you suspect eck by ties can do

>> i think equities can give a 5% real return if we get back to 2% inflation, which i think we are on the way very soon you had that 2% inflation to the 5%, you get a 7% nominal return on equities going forward. so that's how i get my 7% rate of return. now i don't think that's as much my long-term stocks for the long run have had about 6.5% through history so i'm down about 1.5% real from what we had before but still a margin that is to me comfortable over fixed income. at least for the long run. >> cameron, you get the last word >> yeah. i think that that is the key here is that strategic allocations are really important and that we have times where we get overbought and tactically you might make some changes but remaining invested and keeping that balance where where you're focusing on your goals remains

key to meet your long-term plans. >> good fourth to you. professor, have a great fourth see you soon >> you, too, scott thank you. we want to know how would you have voted in our cnbc survey is this a bull market or just a bear market rally? the results coming up later in the hour and don't forget to register for cnbc's delivering alpha itself september 28th you can scan the code, get your early bird tigtcket up next, apple's market cap topping $3 trillion but can it close above that level for the first time ever? we'll track the action plus, we'll hear from deep water's gene munster mike santoli's going to give his take, too. we're live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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let's get a check on some top stocks to watch. hi, seema. >> scott, solar stocks are getting a boost as b. riley upgrades several names including enphase with a $214 price tag. citing more favorable value weigh. analysts also reiterating a buy on solar edge. take a look at nvidia, also

higher as capital markets upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral analysts saying the company's commanding position in ai will be difficult for rivals to replicate in the near term seeing shares up over 3% at this hour >> thank you apple hitting that key $3 trillion market cap once again now on track to close above that milestone for the very first time gene munster of deep water asset management sees a clear path to 4 trillion joining me now along with mike santoli. gene's on the phone for us gene, we're going to close it looks like above three how are we going to get to four? count our chickens already, aren't we? >> well, we're looking at what the path ahead is and i think there are two things going on. the apple investment case changes about every decade and the last decade, it was about services were shifting to an active install base narrative and that's the reason they've had two disappointing quarters in a row and the stock is up 50%

percent this year. the active base grow at 8% in the december quarter it's now 2 billion plus. that's the key metric investors are looking at so that number to decline, to answer your question, why is it going to keep going up. investors are going to be hyper focused on this every quarter. in other words, that number's going to keep inching higher right now, microsoft is at 35 times. you put a 35 multiple on apple in 2025, that gets you to over 4 trillion i think it's 4.3 to be exact and so yes i don't want to play into momentum deep water we're optimistic about the future but measured in terms of valuation but in this case, i think apple is much less expensive and has opportunity for multiple expansion two other quick caveats.

vision pro is going to surprise investors. not in the next one or two year, but three to five. don't forget about the car this stock has it all. >> so you use the word measured. you said deep wiater, we're measured some would suggest you're anything but because they can't get their arms around the 31 times and you want to give it a 35 multiple. how would you respond? >> at the end of the day, higher multiple stocks are about sleeping well at night you look at coke and clorox and proctor and gamble those trade at 25 times next year's numbers and they don't grow they grow at 1, 2% but the case of apple, this could be a 10% grower for the next five years. you have to look at growth when it comes to valuation. and so i understand that the multiple is not as low as for example meta but it is if you look at i think the growth opportunity and most

importantly, reliability investors pay up for that, when they can sleep well at night and that active install date is the definition of sleeping well at night. >> mike, two things here gene's valuing it. make it a staple and 31 times doesn't get your attention, maybe 35 times does >> i mean making it even at that number one of the more expensive consumer staple stocks as well i think at some point, i've never been one to say it's too big, it can't grow from here you've got $100 billion in net income projected for the next year for apple so you start saying 10% annualized on top of that. that's a non-trivial amount of gross dollars you have to add. i have this chart here on the forward pe

it was higher in late 2020 when you had the momentum move into tech and pandemic beneficiary. so it's a matter of betting on the premium continuing to go higher from here and no hiccups in the fundamental story, which is it's plausible but i don't know if you want to bet on it. >> it's a great point, gene. a lot has to go right to reach those loftier expectations correct? >> i don't think 10% is a lot. 10% growth is a lot. that is measurable but when i look at nvidia, it's a company that's doing phenomal. we don't own it. in that case, i think a lot has to go. that's order of magnitude difference so i would say i think that there are reasonable growth expectations this is not 100% growth, defensive growth like we've seen in nvidia's ai business.

so i don't see that as outside of the, when it comes to doing it right, quarter in, quarter out, apple is the gold standard. we all know that as far as hiccups, i don't know what the hiccup would be say they miss an iphone number in the quarter they're probably going to get those people back. we've proven year on year if they don't upgrade in a quarter, they'll upgrade two quarters later. it's hard for me to envision what is the scenario where things fall apart. they're the only company that does the hardware services seamlessly our reliance on these devices is only going to increase i think it's not priced to perfection >> gene, not to say that something falls apart but we're in a down fiscal year for earnings right now from fiscal 21 to '23, we're talking about a total of 7% earnings growth. so it's not like you could just plug in 10% a year because

apple's done it in the past. >> you can't but what you have to look at is their product lines. this gets pacback to a deeper conversation about where is growth going to come from. you look at india and the opportunity still less than 3% of total iphone sales from come india. that could be as much as china's business, about 12%. services has been staying with growth but ultimately, that is a segment that should be growing 10% plus when you put on these other pieces and i think we can go back to other products with vision pro i'll reiterate i think that investors are missing the opportunity with spatial computing. don't want to be confused with saying the next one or two years it's fwoigoing to take off, but these are devices that we're going to spend one, two, three hours a day using. apple's got pole position with

that i mentioned the car, too when you put these together, there's reason when you're a $400 billion company, it's hard to grow but when you have a pole position within something like spatial computing or automotive and what could come in healthcare, there's optionality values that i think beyond optionality, it's substance. that's how you keep this machine continuing to grow >> you were shocked yourself though because we were together when it was revealed out at wwdc the actual price for the vision pro was way over your expectations how have you come to grips with is that? >> i totally blew what the project was going to come out at at $3500, i was off. i think that didn't change whether it was 2,000 or 2500 or 3500, it didn't change how i felt about the next few years of this product

this is for developers essentially to feed what is the new computing platform so if the real question for me, how did i feel about it, my confidence that they're going to have $1,000 headset in by the end of this decade has been unchanged and i think when you look at these, you have to think in terms of multiyears so ultimately the opportunity is distant. i would say the one piece that did change from when we talked before it was announced is the demo is incredible i would put it to almost an out of body experience i don't want to overhype something but it's hard really to capture what it is like using this device. i think as more investors use this and understand the power of facial computing, i think that people, investors' optimism about the unit three, four, five years down the road is only going to increase. >> appreciate it we'll talk to you soon >> thank you

>> that's gene munster joining us here. mike's going to be back with us in the market zone up next, trading the inflation situation. today's positive data sending stocks higher. cks next guest highlighting the poetof opportunity he's seeing dow's good, 326. back after this. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

tech leading today, my next guest sees more near term upside in that sector as we move into the second half of the year. welcome back good to see you. this tech parade is just going to continue? >> good to be with you listen, i think on a short-term basis, tech is getting extended. i think it's leadership at this point. to be fair, you know, tech's performance surprised the magnitude. we upgrades tech in march. one of the reasons you buy tech

and why it outperforms is when earnings are stronger than the overall market that's what we saw in march, the earning trend stronger than the market what's noteable is a lot of tal about tech is following interest rates. tech is still outperforming because it's about earnings. >> yes so much for the relationship between rates and so-called long duration assets. we interviewed professor siegel who said it's going to be hard to derail tech i want your reaction on the other side >> tech investors, it's a win-win for them it's the longest asset we have a recession, you know, tech is mostly immune. and if we have a recession, the fed will stop raising interest rates. maybe lower. that's really good for our long-lived assets that we have so everyone is piling into tech because they say it's a win-win

no matter what happens to the economy. >> keith, can we go as far as to say tech is recession proof? >> i don't know that i would say it's recession proof one of the things even with the valuations and overall market where our opinion is involved is that when we have this ai moment with nvidia's earnings or the earlier this year, even if the economy slows down, companies are going to have to spend on tech otherwise fear being lost, being fear of left behind. so i do think on a relative basis if you still have somewhere in the back half, tech does well. not if the economy does well i think it does fine shorter term, we're more interested, we did early in june when the market was flat or arch stock was flat we upgraded the s&p equal weight

index. that's up about 5% there's better opportunity on a short-term basis there and also investors. >> you were admittedly too defensive coming into the year now that we've put together a gain that many folks department s didn't see coming, does it feel to you that the bull market is something that can really be built on when will you make the call that this is not a bear market rally, it is a new bull market and it has stand legs >> so to kryour point, we startd to get more defensive in early 2022 we overstayed our welcome this year and what surprised us is that you know, you raise rates three times this year another point or two but the s&p valuation expanded and also look at home builders they're making all time high as well who had that in their playbook this year. our point of view is you've got to respect the trends and i think there's more upside.

we're out of pretty high valuation and you're not going to have the fiscal and monetary support that drives these big bull markets i will say at some point especially depending on how far this market goes, we're more likely to move back to defense as opposed to offense. we think that's the right place to be for right now. >> i do find it interesting, too, that you don't think there's goeng ting to be a catcp with financials or energy. >> i think financials are still challenged i think as far as credit is going to likely get worse not better and listen, i think the lag effect of monetary policy has more than we would have thought coming into the year but i think we're going to see tighter credit conditions. longer term on energy, we were overweight energy through 2021 downgraded it this year. i think it's one of the things in the global economy will be

weaker so we think it's maybe a continues to be underperformer i think energy's still in a good spot we think near term they're not leadership >> have a good fourth. on "closing bell" next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close and later, carnival is cruising higher today the stock is jumping again near 10% after gaining nearly 20% this week alone. we'll tell you what's behind the move "closing bell" is right back

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we've got about 15 minutes before the close back to seema m >> take a look at old dominion freight lines. it's fully back today after several days gains the stock has been boosted by a hike at citi and upgrade to buy at bank of america but despite today's pullback, old dominion still on track for its best week since november then there's meta among the tech outperformers as the u.k. clears its sell by the flats on the week but its recent

outperformance still has it trading at its highest since last year. >> thank you last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked how would you have voted in our cnbc survey is this a bull market or bear market rally the results are right after this break.

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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. we're in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus seema on carnival heading for its best month ever leslie picker looking ahead to the bank's capital plans announcements coming after the bell turn to you first, mike. less than eight minutes. what's one of the things that's been most impressive to you?

>> the persistence of the rally and modest little cooling off period we had in the last month. it's a sign of a pretty sturdy market that people feel almost compelled to participate in. it's feeling a little bit melted in the nasdaq. wouldn't say it's really a full on momentum chase but it gets uncomfortable when you've had this kind of market cap extension after you've been overbought now watching a few things, if you say what should make me alarmed about anything credit market is not really sending up any warnings at this point. the leadership of the market aside from tech is solid in terms of consumer cyclicals and industrials and transports so that's okay the bigger question to me is have we gotten to a phase where people went from disbelief to outright belief in the rally, in the economy, in a short period of time. i think there's room before we get to outright fomo but it becomes less comfortable to play

the market at these levels without further pullback if you've been along for the ride up to here >> apple looks like it's going to go out close to the highs of the day. pus pushing 194. a better than $4 move. it's fogoing to get that first close ever above $3 trillion in market cap >> get that out of the way i'm also focused on the way itits diverging from its peers microsoft hovering above the highs. this is arguing around the edges. two thirds of the people say it's a bull mark if we stop here and the market fails, it would have been a brief bull market no matter what the equal weight s&p is in a gain so all the quibbles saying it's just been a few stocks, that goes away if we get there >> seema, what's behind carnival's breakout? >> can we just talk about this

i was just diving into the numbers. this it is best week, month and quarter on record for carnival and the stock now in addition to nvidia, topping the s&p 500's biggest gainers. it started on monday when the company reported earnings which prompted investors to take profits on concerns around guidance but one day later, the ceo clarified some comments an the company's financial goals, plans to deleverage and that added clarity just today we saw jeffries upgrade the stock writing that despite the strong year-to-date performance, they believe the journeyfrom a good trade to a longer term investment case remains ahead and even if we take a step back and look at the analysts that covered the stock, more than 50% have a buy rating on the stock a very different picture than a year ago when this industry was trying to make ends meet and it is now trading above the average target of 14 >> thank you for that. leslie picker, the banks, they

passed the test and now they tell us what they're going to do with that excess capital >> yeah, that's right. so big banks were the big winners in wednesday's stress tests. they showed they were well capitalized, could withstand an adverse scenario, a recession, and that allows them to return some capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. the central bank requires that i wait at least 48 hours to release those plans which means we could see results as soon as 4:30 p.m. oorn time. goldman sachs wrote quote, given the heightened uncertainty about future capital requirement changes from here, we don't expect significant increases to near term capital returns or material dividend increases year-over-year keep an eye out for something called the stress capital buffer the lower that number, the

easier it is for a bank to return capital goldman sachs, jpmorgan saw estimates declines where as citi, citizen's fanl financial, capital one and truist saw higher so that could be ip ndicative of the stock price. >> thank you to mike, financials, let's go there. whether there's going to be a catch up trade of sorts for these lagging sectors as we make the turn >> i think that's right at the center of this discomfort people have with betting that we are anywhere but late in the cycle it feels as if when you look at the stocks that have been performing, a lot of the early stuff has been moving. cyclicals, industrials the market is behaving as if it's gotten this new life to the cycle but it's hard to trust that when it comes to financials, the banks. is credit going to get better from here?

yes they have a lot of capital do you still have to look across the valley the stocks are cheap really outside of jpmorgan but have been in this purgatory so stay perked up. they've been as much of a drag as they were in the past but to me, it really crystallizes this debate even in an economy that does better, doing better than 2% real gdp growth given the fact we still have low unloemployment the fed still wants to restrain the economy. real yields are higher multiyear highs. so that should put restraint on growth it's a tough call. i do think there's capacity for a catch up trade i wonder if it's purely mechanical >> so nice 4% moves this week for some sectors energy's up near 5%. industrial's up just about four then you have materials, too getting a lot of chatter, but materials have had a little wake up this week, too.

>> yeah. that's, to me, it's about the broadening of the rally as people look to get some kind of exposure and don't feel like they want to buy 52-week highs in the stuff that's been working. also, you're seeing things like copper go higher but still, it's been doing a little bit better and you're getting relief on that front again, still going to watch the yields to see if they put a little bit of a break on things on the equity side the absolutely levels are not particularly high pushing the upper end of the range still digestible at this point but you never know if we're going to trip into a note where the two-year note was above 5% in march if we get back there and if again, real yield after you account for inflation expectations are getting to pinch the real economy so far though, it seems like a sweet spot seasonally and otherwise >> let's throw up apple because we're going to go above $3 trillion in market cap at the

close. apple for the very first time ever it will be the first company to ever close above $3 trillion in market cap ever as well. as we close out a stellar first half particularly for that tech trade. that does it for us. i'll see you on monday mo morgan brennan has it in ot. and we are halfway through 2023 it's the best first half for the nasdaq in 40 years best for the s&p in four stocks ending higher apple closing above $3 trillion in market cap for the first time that's the scorecard on wall street but the action's just getting started. jon fortt is off today we're on watch on watch from