yesterday eats successful space flight if you missed our interview catch it now on my podcast "manifest space" which is available wherever you get your podcasts some holiday weekend listening all the major averages finishing today higher, the week, th month, the quarter and the first half of the year higher. 38% gains for the nasdaq 100 that'sing if to do it for us here at overtime." we'll see you for a special time 1:00 p.m. eastern for the shortened holiday trading day. "fast money" begins right >> right now, 40 years in the making, the nasdaq finishing its best start to the year and apple leading the way as a $3 trillion company. for the first time up 50% already this year. it wasn't just the tech on a tear we'll take a look at the winners and losers sonar 2023 and which have the legs to one in the second half. second, ahead of the possibility of a second workers strike in hollywood and if actors join

writers on the picket line what does it mean for the companies creating all the content. >> reporter: and poised for pop, a stock that's seeing positive momentum in the week and the good vibes are only just beginning. we'll tell you what it is in just a fee i'm melissa least. on the desk tonight karen fine per, bonman iceman and tim seymour. we start off with a winning end to a banner first half the nasdaq and s&p 500 jumping more than 1% today, both indseeds at the highest closes since april of last year the dow up 221 point, shy of its high of the year the nasdaq locking in its best first half since 1993 rallying 2% since january 1st 2023 eased nasdaq 100 leader so far, chip-maker nvidia surging 189% and meta platforms up almost 140% and tesla also more than doubling. then, of course, there's apple, the iphone-maker hitting a record high for a seventh day in a row and closing with a market cap of over $3 trillion for the

first time shares are up almost 50% so far this year. so as we gear up for the second half, how much juice is left in this market rally, karen i think this is sort of the real that defies many, many, many people's expectations given the concerns about a recession, rising rate and, of course, bank crisis that we saw in marnaz. >> right it is sort of amazing. if you had known that okay we're going to start rising, and we'll be really aggressive and we'll be higher than you think and higher than what the expectations are and by the way we're also going to have, you know, the ukraine situation and we're going have all this other stuff, svb, i would think the chants of us being here would be pretty low, but this is where we are. i find this market harder. i find like a lot of the easy money has been made now, and these are kind of like champagne cork-popping kind of numbers for the first half, so that actually makes me a little bit nervous.

nevertheless, i always am long that's just the way it goes, so i'm going to stay with what's working. i think even if things are getting to fair value or maybe a little bit extensive, pendulums don't stop at fair value they usually keep going. >> so you think you think the markets are at or close to fair sflal. >> some parts of the market i think are fair some are a little' i head of then seems >> bonawyn >> there's definitely a disparity where you can kind of find intrinsic value and where the stock surprise trading, and there's good reason, a recently explained explanation for that there's somewhat of a flight to quality because if when we saw, karen went back and says listen, if we thought they would continue tightening, tech wokt lagard and we saw that rotation out of tech into value you would have expect that had trade to continue, but where are the largest cash balances? where are the lowest debt levels where do you continue to find

growth it's in tech, so the question is this rate story now behind us? i don't think so, but i also understand that the companies that are the most separated from their intrinsic value also offer you the largest margin of safety, and to me that's the conundrum. >> you're long nvidia? >> right. >> and you're going to stay long. >> but i've trimmed it but i will stay long. >> in terms of the rate story, tim, can we say it's maybe behind news a way because we know that majority fed members want to at least rate increase going forward. we know it's going to be higher for longer there's a lot that we know about the trajectory of the path though we don't know the exact step-by-step mechanism. >> well, we just haven't felt the squeezing of higher rates for longer, so, no, rates aren't going a lot high you can see where fed funds are. the interesting thing is we've got 25 basis points higher between now and year end if you

look at fed fund futures, and that was not the case when we started the year it was certainly calling for cuts as we got into march. it's also interesting that rates are closing the first half near the highs, and essentially we talked the two-year note yesterday near 16-year highs we talked about the ten-year somewhere around 385 is right where we started the year. remember, a lot of the equity rally was driven almost by a crisis, a banking cries, and essentially overcoming that has been part of this catalyst for exity. you add in some ai and you get some of the spending that i think people think mega cap tech is certainly going to see but the rates higher for longer are eventually going to squeeze this consumer, and we've had a lot of anecdotal loan data, credit data, household savings data or lack thereof, and it tells me that rates are still a major factor even if the fed is largely done the fed is going no, and what we've seen every time over the years at least when the fed has been in a rate-hiking cycle, real rates have been

significantly higher than where they are right now i don't think rate will move a lot higher it means inflation has to come down and cpi is at least stuck at core at 3.5%. i just think that rates are a factor, and i think equities aren't worth as much when rates are 5 up basis points high, and if you think about roughly where the s&p was going into covid on a forward multiple and where we are now, we're higher on a forward multiple we're 500 basis points higher, so, yeah, i get the fact that near the end of the most aggressive fed cycle it's been positive for equities. i agree that it's positive for equities peak fed, peak rates, peak dollar, peak inflation, that's the equity story, but this is all playing out slower than we expected, and i think the consumer is going to be the story the second half, and i don't think it will be positive. >> one thing that i wouldn't have expected this is a gdp number that we just got, right talking recession, recession we haven't seen that at all. in fact, it's sort of

significantly higher than i thought would have been, so i guess that's sort of the path of least resistance maybe is the no recession which would have seemed unimaginable a year ago in april. >> right it wasn't just thaek had a first big half of the year there are plenty of others carnival cruise lines for one are surging more than 130%, the third best s&p performer so far this year. puhte homes soaring 70% and general electric and chipotle putting in gains of more than 50%, but not everything has come up roses advanced auto parts the worst performer town 50% and moderna lagging and dropping 30% and energy also underperforming, chevron, the third biggest drag on the dow so it got us thinking how would our traders play the biggest losers and winners heading into the second half? we were just talking about nvidia, bonawyn so what do you do with it >> i'm glad we're continuing this line of reasoning

invidya has been up 200%, 190%, something extraordinary, and to me this is real at the crux of the argument around ai, and the difference here between some of the other names, yes, you have multiple expansion no, debate about that, but you've also gotten earnings growth and that's a differentiating factor between other names that just seen their multiple grow on speculation around what might happen in the future. >> the loser that you're watching, kre? >> yeah, i mean, listen, i think in some instances here you just have a rebalancing you have, you know, an etf here as opposed to a single name so some of the i had sipocratic risks that you're worrieded about with the svb and real estate crisis it's going to be sign offed out and there you look at laggards and pockets of the market that haven't par tips pated, there is a little bit of a baby being thrown out with the bath water, particularly in the

reits space where they can move losers off the balance sheet and retain winners on >> what's your pair, the winner and loser? >> winner that i think will be a liars, home builders i think there's reasons why they traded higher, including just lack of supply and the home builders actually underwriting significant mortgage costs i look at gross margins that came down almost ten percentage points for the grey-bruce and asps that were subsidized and are down and multiples are in a place where they are far from cheap. i just think it's not a healthy environment even though the industry-specific fundamentals are certainly favoring the housing market demand. on the loser goes winner, it's energy, and energy which actually xle being your conduit proxy outperformed crude or brent by about 4% or 5% in the first half of the year, and i think, look, i think we're sideways on oil prices i still think there's a supply issue. i still think that there's a dynamic around demand that's actually supported around india and china reopening, but i look

at the energy sector as a place to invest to find companies with free cash flow, and i look at an underperformance of 20% of the s&p in the first half and i think that's an opportunity in the second half. >> yeah, karen, within your own snfl. >> i've got to say i didn't understand the assignment a little bit which was winners turning into losers and vice versa? >> okay. >> i just made that up. >> oh, okay. >> one of the winners, i had a few thankfully, was in this market you would hope more than a few, united rentals, and actually in the last six weeks united rentalities is up 36% for no reason basically. so i'm sticking with that because for no reason isn't a great theory and the other one footlocker which has really been terribly, terribly disappointing. they had an exciting march investor days that was interesting and the quarter right after that terrible. i'm giving mary dillon more time though i think, you know, it will take her some time and i want to give

her some rope hopefully, you know, it will work out well because i think if she's remotely close on her plan there's a lot of upside. >> breaking news on the banks making dividend changes post stress test. let's get to lesley picker for all the details. >> mel, yes, the latest is goldman sachs which just announce it had boosted its dividend from 225 or from 250 a share to 275 a share that's begins july 1st subject to board approval, but a 10% increase in that per share dividend price now that's complemented by their previously announced $30 billion reshare repurchase program so the buybacks stay at at same level. that's kind of similar to the trajectory of morgan stanley they hiked their dividend by about 9.7% to 85 sent a share and they reauthorized a repurchase program up to 20 billion. that's without a expiration date begins in the third quarter. jpmorgan kind of that trend with the bigger banks, wells fargo, both of those also increasing their quarterly dividend in the

third quarter, and they both -- well, jpmorgan, they continue to repurchase shares under an existing program and wells fargo basically left that door open saying the company had the capacity to repurchase stock they will re-routinely assess that idea. now if you look at some of these large earl regional banks that were subjected to the fed's stress test on wednesday a little bit more muted in their capital return plans capital one announced its so-called stress capital buffer. that's basically a number that results from the stress test that took place earlier in the week, but they didn't in their release mention any changes to this dividend or buyback, and truist said it was maintaining its current dividend of 52 cents per share. so, mel, we're still waiting on some more bank announcements to come and they will make those announcements on monday. we'll be monitoring to see if anybody announces this evening and we'll bring that to you when they cross >> leslie, thank you leslie picker.

of course, capital one, citizens financial seen as the weakest in the stress take takers, the results. carriages we were talking about in the green room, i was kind of surprised that they were going to go ahead and announce moves at this point. >> so early because there's for capital requirement news to come. >> yeah. >> wells fargo did, leslie say, we're just going to watch for a little bit. >> that's prudent. >> i guess the jpmorgans of the world must feel pretty comfortable. the dividend payout ratio is in the 30% range so the buyback is something that has been more mobile you don't want to change your dividend except to the upside if you're a bank. so i think the bank stocks, the uncertainty has been worse than whatever the capital requirements may be, but i -- i probably would have waited a little bit as well i know you can suspend the buyback or slow it, but i don't know, i would have waited. >> coming up, the plot thickens in hollywood with the writers strike deadline hours away

what's at stake for the big entertainment stocks. and later on "options action" there's a big veendirgce happening between two benchmarks, what the move is tilgs and how you should play it "fast money" is back in two. this tiny payment thing- is a giant pain! hi ladies! alex from u.s. bank! can she help? how about a comprehensive point of sale system... that can track inventory, manage schedules- and customize orders? that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven explosion) what about a new oven, can u.s. bank help us there? we can serve loans in as fast as 12 minutes. that would be a big help! huge! jumbo! ginormous!

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i. welcome back they have money. a full-blown hollywood shutdown could take effect as soon as midnight if major stayed studios fail to make an agreement with the screen actor's guild as they round out their second round of the strike let's bring in julia boorstin. >> reporter: melissa, that's right. the screen actor's guild contract with the movie alliance studios expires at midnight with actors pushing for higher compensation for streaming plus protections around artificial intelligence, similar to the writers that are on strike sources tell me studios and actors might negotiate an extension so the actors can keep going while the negotiations are under way. that's what happened in two of the last times that the guild's contract expired it's also very possible that sag won't strike despite having the strike authorization the guild has not had a strike since the year 2000, but

tensions win deed high after two months of a writers strike in which all new productions have been halted, and an actors strike would halt all remaining production currently under way now all the studios are being impacted by the writers strike, and they with all be impacted by an actors strike netflix though may be better positioned than most because it has so much production over seas, where, of course, actors and writers are not members of the u.s.-based guilds. all of this comes as disney opens its "indiana jones" sequel at the box office this weekend the thursday box office opening numbers was better than anticipate, but the pressure is on for disney to deliver a big hit after a number of film disappointments. now the summer box office is worth noting though up slightly from last year, it's down nearly 15% from 2019 levels melissa. >> julia, just quickly, when do we begin to see the dearth of content because of the writers strike and potentially an actors

strike >> reporter: well, you know, it's interesting we're already seeing it in terms of the late night showers, and there's a connection between that and what's happening at the box office there's some speculation that the fact that the late night shows are on hiatus because the writers are on strike means that the actors are not out there promoting their films as much, so maybe if people saw movie stars out there talking up their films, they would be more eager to rush to the box office and to see those movies, so we're already seeing an impact now the real question is how much it starts to impact the fall tv season right. >> i've been hearing from a lot of sources there's a consensus that the writers strike will be over by the end of summer is, by the end of august. i think if it drags out longer than that we could start to see it really having broad impact, not just on tv but also on film. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin tim, netflix still wins, still the winner out of this. >> yeah. it does. i mean, it sounds like more "brady bunch" and "f-troop" rereturns and therefore i think

netflix does win netflix wins because it's proven that they also have been cutting costs and generating more free cash flow. that's something that after a lot of investment into both their technology and their content, it's something that investors were waiting for, and so obviously it's been about the ad tier, et cetera, but this is about the first half winners i think you let it run a little bit. >> all right more on the stress test. back to leslie picker for the latest leslie. >> this one from citi group. they did plan to increase their common dividend by about two cents a share to 53 cents per share for the third quarter of 2023, but citi is kind of a standout among its larger banking peers in the stress capital buffer, the amount of capital it needs to hold above the fed's minimum in order to return capital to shareholders that actually went higher you want to see that go lower year over year for citi that went higher. it went up to 4.3%, up from 4%, but i think the market is still

happy that they were able to boost the dividend, even just a little bit, sending shares up about .3% in after-hours trading. melissa? >> all right leslie, thanks coming up after the red hot start to the year for the markets, what should you expect from stocks in the second half in the chart moister is here to dive in on the moraj indseeds and has the one stock that he thinks is poised to real through year's end the name when "fast money" returns. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. ♪ ♪

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is poised to real through year's welcome back to "fast money. the s&p is up nearly 16% already this year off to its best start since 2019, but can it keep its momentum in the second half in the chartmaster carter worth toys it's worth charting and the answer highs in the past

carter, what does that mean? >> it's always in the past you learn from the past. when you know is if you have a bad first half it means a sub par second half and if you have a good first half momentum is a powerful thing and if it's too good you cannibalize some of the prospected gains if you look at the perform achts top ten years, the second half actually, it's somewhere between somewhere between the average and the median between plus and minus 2% so very muted returns if you have a particularly robust first half. now, in terms of the chart of the s&p, and we can pull that up, we are now basically some 10% above the 150-day moving average. you'll see it on the next chart. it annotates, that and typically you get to a point where at a minimum you get something in the way of a counter trend move or an uptrend and a counter trend move, is it 3, is it 5, is it 9

or 10 but something that corrects what is otherwise an incorrect circumstance, but in terms of picks, listen, i think the thing to do if you great gains in some of these extended name, double become and look for something like a charter that bottomed the same day as the zrngs october betweenth and up basically the same amount as the s&p, but its upside is so asymmetrical so we like heart. we like comcast. things like that that are bombed out, but they have also kept up with the market. you can see the move above the downtrend line we favor things like this versus the things that are so low. >> basically for the s&p 500 if i'm hearing you right expect some sort of a check pack and you don't know if it's back 120950 day or if it's a little bit. >> sure. >> but by the end of the year, in they're, if there's a human check back down to the 150, then you can see a huge move higher sometime later in the year. >> let's say it goes for another month and then gives back that 8 or 10 or 5 or 1 and then has to

recover pack from a level from which it sold, could we end up about here that's a pretty good bet if you're bullish i just don't think it's going to be this great runaway thing that is now consensus. >> the risk/reward is not there. >> i like it better for small cap. >> you still like the small cap. tim, how about you >> well, positioning is so different than it was six months ago, and -- and sent cement so different than where it was six months ago look, i believe the market is ahead of itself here i believe it's a great time to take some profits and some names and put powder aside there's a lot of names that want to buy this market lower and therefore because eps has recovered a bit, look, july is one of the best seasonal months of the year. i don't think it's time to fenway park in. >> all right carter, see you in a few on "options action. "final trade time. let's go around the horn tim, back over to you? >> enjoy the barbecue, mel, and everybody and god bless america. i think schlumberger is one of

the best in energy rate counts have gone down, that's counterintuitive. i think there's demand coming and i like the balance sheet schlumberger. >> bonawyn. >> often said the best time to buy things is when they go from awful to not so bad and that's the regional banking situation, scarey >> karen >> you need a charter like charter. i like louis vuitton, essencive but it's worth it. >> that does it for us on "fast money. doot n go anywhere "options action" is coming up next

♪ right now on "oa," part one is done. the s&p 500 closed out a big half while the nasdaq posts its best start to a year since 1983, but there's a divergence brewing, the likes of which we've seen a handful of times in the last 0 years then apple, tesla and home depot, look at those three names, what do they have in common it's the urgency of using options now. we'll splam why. and the second hal