we have the playbook for the second half of the year. we have no idea, but it is incredible. united airline ceo scott kirby p apologizing for taking a private jet from newark when thousands of airlines customers were stranded by weather and staffing issues. news from two of elon musk's companies. tesla with an 83% jump of deliveries and twitter limiting the number of tweets users can read per day not one thing changed about my life details straight ahead monday, jeuly 3rd, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc

we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen becky and andrew are off the s&p is up 1.66 points and the dow jones industrial average is up 50 the nasdaq is higher by 36 what an extraordinary first half of the year. the dow up 3.8%. nasdaq is up 32% the best first half since 1983 remember '83 were you a broker then >> i was just starting in the business at merrill lynch. >> what a great start. first year stockbroker >> my stub year in '82 it was a great time. training in october of '81 production in march of '82 '83 was a good -- when i was

20 -- it was up. it was a pretty good year as i recall once we got the hostages out and cut taxes and the dow was at 780 when i started from 780 to 1,200 and every analyst said it wasn't real. >> just like today with the nasdaq >> just like today we talked about that a lot on friday people said why are you so mean? i'm not mean, but you are in the business with your clients to -- i can be wrong and stay out of the market for 35% on the nasdaq i can do that myself i don't need someone. >> and pay them. >> for the strength of their ideas. my idea -- even on friday. up 285 the s&p. 4,450 now on the s&p >> we are getting close to a lot of year-end targets.

the key is what happens here with the strategists and p forecasts. let's check this on treasury yields 2-year treasury climbing higher. 4.98% is what we are looking at right now. 10-year treasury at 3.458. and tesla with a jump for the second quarter phil lebeau joins us now phil, i had a comment on the scott kirby stuff. any other ceo, we know why they travel on private jets they need to do things they need to go to small cities. they don't need to wait. it is just weird for me. he's a ceo of a major s&p 500. one of the major companies in the country. he's got places he has to be and things he that's do. just because it is an airline -- >> customers have places to go and things to do and people to see. >> i know they do.

he is a ceo. i'm not saying they're entitled. they all fly on private jets the reason the corporation has a corporate jet. they cannot be at the whims the rest of us for him to come out and i want to apologize i would have said this is my job. i had to be somewhere. i'm sorry there is weather and things that happen the only reason, phil, it was a chemical ceo or oil or any other industry and because it is not actually flying itself where the people can't fly, it would not have made any difference you would not have said he flew out of newark. he had to get out of newark. you see what i'm saying? >> i see what you're saying, joe. the flip side, it comes off as d tone deaf. at a time when thousands were stranded let me tell you something, joe

i was in denver last week from dia. the number of people who came up to us and they had venom for united airlines. wasn't venom toward any other airline. venom toward united. i realize that denver is a hub you will get more united passengers there and any other airline of airline. southwest has a big presence there. the number of people who were furious at the airline over how this was communicated. when this comes out he took a private jet and you are right, he paid for it it wasn't like the passengers, you pay for me to fly. he paid for it out of his pocket and the way it came off to some people who i talked to about this was you know, if everybody else has to wait, why shouldn't you wait as well that is how people feel. whether you believe that or not, that is the bottom line. he issued the apology because

united realizes for him not to apologize would make it more tone deaf relative to what happened last week >> you know, he used to have a jet following him in case the first jet had a problem. >> right yes. >> a back-up jet ceos do stuff like that. i'm right about that we an thpologize for everything, now, phil. not is sensitive or enough of t. >> joe, let me end with it this of the let me tell you what people are saying. whether or not you think it is right or wrong, you or i, our opinions don't matter. i'm telling you what i heard from acknoverage people. i heard he is the ceo of the airline. he should be here seeing what we're going through.

there is a sense or was a sense when i talked to people and i was flying back from denver yesterday. i heard from a few people who were like why wasn't he waiting with everybody else? if he couldn't get on the flight, he would know the pain >> he is a ceo of an airline if he had been any other sectors we have and the guy stuck in newark and he has to be some somewhere. he would be on a private plane he runs the company. he has to wait with the rest of them okay, that's the current environment that we live in. >> if he is the ceo of the company, he has a fiduciary duty to shareholders. if it takes an apology to satisfy customers. >> the fiduciary duty is to be somewhere. >> if he is going to piss off all his customer base?

>> are airlines ever not going to make people mad because of the weather and the maintenance issues and staffing issues have you ever watched? >> things you cannot control the things you can control are taking a private jet or an apologiz apologizing. i understand what you are saying. >> i don't i'm on kirby's side. i'm not trying to get an upgrade. i'm not flying soon or anything. that's fine. he can an polapologize. phil, i'm sorry for messing up your segment i apologize for messing up your tesla story. >> that's all right, joe would you like me to do tesla now? >> yes, please >> if you accept my apology. >> melissa, reel him in. shift from united. we'll go to tesla.

let's see what the numbers were for th deliveries the street expecting 445,000 they delivered 466,000 vehicles. you see the consensus. as always, the model 3 and model y make up 95% of the deliveries. what did we hear from analysts after this came out? almost all said the same thing we want to see what the average selling price. we know they had to do cost cuts it worked. they have now delivered 888,000 vehicles for the year of you seed shaded part at the top right? that is the consensus of 1.8 million. they are expected to increase production and deliveries in the second half of the year. almost every analyst is noting unless something changes, we

think it will hit 1.8 million target with deliverdeliveries. they are almost producing 500,000 vehicles per quarter that was increase of 8.8%. year over year, it is an increase the factories in germany and china ramped up. how much did the price cut in the second quarter cut into the auto gross margins the consensus is to come in at 1 19.5% when they report on july 19th we will see if they come in or are lower. there is no doubt they had to cut prices they did cut prices in china we saw it here in the united states in order to keep the demand moving. it certainly deliveries now we find out more on july 19th you see the shares of tesla up 6% today

guys s>> i had to go to the united counter. they're trying to get me on another flight tomorrow morning. i might get a seat in the middle in row 48. i'm being fair i'm with everybody else. i might get bumped off that one. i might be out of here by middle of next week. >> you will not let this go. >> all of my viewers are saying i'm right. if you don't like ceos, fine this is what ceos are supposed to do. they're supposed to be good at it look at the money they get paid. think about it, phil >> you are right they need to be places and i understand >> i just saw a great hoops player, i think, it was $190 million for four years if you are good at something, there's a market and the

argument is there is no real market board members that are at the same country club. in the true market, i think scar jo making? margot robbie? you know who scarjo. >> scarlett johanssen? i'm going back to my high school nickname philbo >> was it? >> yeah. some in the neighborhood there were a few in the neighborhood that was the nicer nickname. >> that's a good one call me joker. let's go we're moving on. >> we do phil, thank you. let's get to twitter now elon musk said saturday that

twitter users will only be able to read a certain number of posts per day with data scraping and system manipulation. the limits are temporary initial counts to 6,000 posts per day. those limits were increased on saturday it came as users reported problems accessing twist on saturday it also restricted content to users without an account it allowed them to view public profiles, but now prompted with a log-in window. coming up, the report says apple is slashing the internal targets for the vision pro headset. details after the break. and now reaction for the supreme court's decision to block the student loan program of president biden you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital —

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apple is slashing production goals for the vision pro headset because manufacturers are dealings with the complex design the company scaled back 1 million units in sales for the first year and now it will make fewer headsets >> that is a single read start correcting grammar and

syntax >> it was glaring to me. >> "h" word. >> elementary school let's get to the markets ahead of the short trading week. we have sylvia jablonski with us >> happy fourth. thank you, melissa >> you are seeing a lot of flow into the etfs although we are at the lovefty levels >> the tesla news was 10% up over last quarter. up 83% year over year. what is happening is electric vehicles are infiltrating the economy. you had 14% of all cars sold were evs that number is poised to get to 25% in 2026.

tesla is clearly the leader. you have at lot -- you have a lot of other ev sales as well. rivian is eligible for the tax credit and use tesla charges stations you have nio in china. the top ev names in the u.s. and top ev names in china are benefitting from the tesla success. >> we didn't get to byd which posted its record delivery number for the quarter in china. the number one in the chinese market sylvia, you are seeing flows here although tesla is a huge gainer in the first half of the year i'm trying to get a sense of how investors are thinking about the second half given the gains we have seen in the first. >> i think it is a fair point. why not take your gains? there are two areas of the market that are still continuing to grow. if the future of technology is a.i. and you have a lot of reasons for compelling growth in

the future, i think evs are the future of automobiles. we are in the first inning of ev and ev adoption. you have tailwinds from government spending and commitments from carbon neutral and the charging stations and being able to charge and use them more productively it is still new enough where it is poised to grow. it is a small percentage of automobiles sold in the ev space. we have an ev basket out there which has been around for the last couple days of it is great pick up. investors are thinking this has a lot of runway. we are in the beginning stages >> you have a cruise etf carnival has been a top performer in the first half of the year it has been more than double and indicated higher in the pre-market you are seeing enthusiasm in the travel trade as well still >> so 51 million people are set to travel this week for fourth

of july. we know the story here a lot of the spending has gone from goods to services the travel industry is just massively benefits from this you have airlines with delta increasing earnings and hotels participating in the reopening east to west the cruises with caribbean picking up they just built a ship ten times the size of the "titanic." spending on carnival has picked up norwegian has bought extra tickets. so much spending in the space. the sheer amount of travel from the reopen trade of covid and global reopen trade with consumers goes to europe instead of just miami is benefitting cruise ships. >> are you seeing any evidence in terms of the flows into the various etfs that indicate people are going into the other

loved areas? you go into the rsp versus the s&p 500 to get participation in the names of the sectors that have not performed on par with the seven tech stocks. are you seeing that into the flows of the etfs? >> we are seeing it in a different way. we experienced a recession last year we had tech focused products we had a.i. and machine learning nobody cared about that in 2022. it is the hottest trade and where we see all of the flows. last year was a retail goods spending trade now we have seen that shift to travel consumer is back out there consuming entertainment and experiences and travel perhaps that was under loved last year and changed up those are the two main areas we see flow into. it is continuing to grow it is not slowing down we did not see flows in 2022 in

the growth areas >> will you have a bitcoin etf are you filing for one it seems everybody and their brother is filing or re-filing applications >> yeah. we have brought things into the market for consumers to look at in the space it hasn't gotten pick up i think it will be interesting to see what happens with the blackrock and grayscale here on the spot product of if it gets approved, it resurrects the trade it is up over 30,000 it could have a shot of becoming commercial and practical use cases if they get it past the finish line. otherwise, you will get range bound trading in the products. the approval resurrects the hype >> sylvia, thank you coming up, new labor strikes

at canadian ports and los angeles hotelhotels details after the break. a fake report over the weekend and i saw this saying s.e.c. chair gary gensler was stepping down. that appears it was trending on twitter, if you could see it with the restrictions. "squawk box" will be right back. do you ever worry we'll live forever? no, it's literally never crossed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money.

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(vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. time for the executive edge and three labor stories to tell you about. first, thousands of employees, hotel employees in southern california, walked off the job yesterday ahead of the fourth of july holiday

demanding better pay and benefits cooks and housekeepers and dish wash ers said members cannot afford to live in los angeles and have a commute hours away. they are asking for an increase to keep up with housing costs. the previous contract expired saturday law firms representing two hotel groups in the area said they wages increases of $2.50 an hour for the next year and $6.25 over four years workers at ports along canada's west coast officially hitting the picket line. the union representing the workers announced the start of the labor strike this weekend. both sides remain divided over automation and use of contract work and the cost of living for workers. and, melissa >> actors in hollywood >> the actors strike

oh, no >> they didn't not yet. they agreed to extend contract negotiations avoiding a possible strike for now the contract had been set to expire over the weekend. the actors union is calling for increased pay and protection from a.i. and better benefit pla plans. they will negotiations in black out period >> i'm in one of those s.a.g. i was in one thing glenn close. >> "damages. i love that. >> i still get $3 every six months. >> i get 50 cents from "wall street never sleeps. >> were you s.a.g. >> yeah. should we go on strike >> i'm not crossing a picket

line i'm not a scab coming up, fake news story about gary gensler resigning it is a fake story that appears to be a.i. generated we have thple ay book for tech stocks straight ahead >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure lcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we have a mixed picture. s&p is looking to add 5. the dow down 14. nasdaq up 38 over the weekend, a fake story of s.e.c. chair gary gensler was fake which can 85% of a.i. generation the similar incident happened back on april 20th

you said it was obvious. when you read it >> i saw it was trending i looked at the twitter names of how it was trending and saw the usual suspects >> they are pushing the narrative? >> yeah. there are certain specific -- people are mad about the spot etf. and others that bombard all of us >> most people see the headline. >> yeah. >> think it is true. >> i looked he resigned from the cftc a couple of years ago. that story came up i just figured out it was really trending a lot of comments. >> the ceo of a company or some other bit of information which is stock moving? >> god forbid he take a private

jet. >> the story tweeted about the pentagon and the massive fire. you look at the photo and clearly it was a.i. generated. it caused the s&p 500 to move. >> i told you that you can't believe what you read in the paper. here is "the new york post." hunter biden smoking crack and driving 175 miles an hour. two separate occasions one time he took a picture of the speedometer at 172 another time he took a picture of the crack pipe. it was separate times. >> it makes me feel better >> that's what i mean. he was not driving a car fast smoking crack. it is just not fair. i think we have time the supreme court decision and one decision that blocked the student loan forgiveness plan the president said he will work on a back-up plan for student debt relief. joining us now is former senator

heidi heitkamp that rolls off heidi heitkamp now director of the institute of politics of the university of chicago and cnbc contributor we have judd gregg senator or governor? he was both. we know that from new hampshire home of great maple syrup and low taxes. heidi or senator, were you for what the president was trying to do is that the way to do it i see former speaker pelosi say it was no way executive branch doable it had to be done by congress. were you for that or mad at the supreme court for that one >> you know, the bottom line is i didn't support forgiveness of principal. there needs to be interest rate relief relief i think those people who paid over and over again for their student loans, but the interest

compounds on them and we should take a look at how that works. i think even the president himself said i don't have the authority to do this i don't think it is a big surprise now it becomes really incumbent on the department of education to go back and take a look at some of the older loans where people have been paying for 20 years and not getting ahead. trying to figure out how you can get relief you know, right now, if you wanted to find consensus, i think bipartisan consensus, is looking at the cost of higher education and how you get that under control. for a long time, it was simply the costs went up and the government funded it through student loans. we got the mess now because we didn't control it back then. >> judd, i don't thknow how you feel one side says half the people getting loan forgiveness have a couple of graduate degrees i don't know if that is true there were a lot of people that

paid their loans and spent a lot of time doing it and there are some people that are doing okay. that's the narrative people getting advanced degrees forgiven where were you on the whole dance? >> it was the biggest vote buying scheme effort or undertaken by at president 40 million people get $20,000. i'll vote for you if you give me $20,000. that is what it is still about that's why they are trying to reform it to give this huge break. this income to all of these folks going into the next election clearly violated article i of the constitution the congress has the power of the purse. they were trying to spend over $500 million and add it to the debt

the people who will pay for that are people in college. waitress at thediner or the guy at the automobile shop they are paying for it the people who get the benefit signed up to pay back, but now they don't have to pay it back according to the president because i want your vote of the -- vote it simple. they will try to keep it alive and say they will do it another way. >> judd, are you troubled by the comments from the supreme court and validity of the court and legitimacy of the court? the president of the united states for a different decision or all of them combined, i think, that recently came out saying this is not a normal court. it is like don't pay attention to these guys. we will stack the court or aoc wants to impeach a of the justices at this point is this all okay

is this business as usual? >> no. this is serious. the court is a key institution the presidency is a key institution. our culture is going off the rails in the support of the institutions and how they are treated. thought only do you have attack on the court which is a threat to the system that is fundamental to the control by people by the court, but you have it in the congress and people throwing out and impeach the president for all sorts of ridiculous reasons you have a congress which is dysfunctional at the highest degree and as a result, people are losing confidence. our democracy requires absolute requires confidence in the general fairness of the government and we have a responsible government that is eroded dramatically by primarily a tax which comes from the fringe elements in both

parties. it is not the mainstream both parties are responsible for the membership you have the fringe elements with a disproportionate voice through social media >> president biden is not a fringe element >> he's not -- some days he is there and some days he is not there. >> heidi, the supreme court, maybe you didn't like donald trump was able to put three of them on. they were confirmed by people elected by their relat representatives. it happened the way it is supposed to happen is it okay to say it is not a normal court and question the process? what is normal >> i think what is important is to note that when you eliminated the filibuster, you got a partisan court there is no doubt about that i think judd is absolutely

correct. >> who eliminated it >> we have a crisis in confidence of the government the supreme court was the last institution with high favor ability ratings. they are in the tank with the legislative branch and executive branch part of that is driven by the extreme in the party and criticizing everything through the lens of the partisanship they were duly elected and they were on the court and elections have consequences. if you don't like the consequence, you have to have your votes speak for you the confidence we have in government is being driven by the people in government who continue to raise huge issues and be so incredibly incendiar over what they say about each other. >> if joe manchin hadn't drawn a line in the sand about the

filibuster, the dels mocrats wo have gotten rid of the filibuster >> i don't think sinema would vote for it either >> all right sinema the other 50 who are all an democrats. >> joe, there are things that need to be reformed with the filibuster i think, you know, it is no surprise to people that i supported the filibuster because it requires the senate be a compromised body >> heidi, would you recommend the democrats try to pack a court and get 15 justices? >> you know what i think, joe, if you don't like the outcome of what happened with student loan debt, then elect enough people to basically provide a legislation that provides student loan relief of when you look at it, this is all about article i and people not doing their job and expecting

the court to be okay with executive orders that is a problem in the country. >> judd, last word, then we have to go. >> i agree with heidi. if the congress wants to give away $20,000 per person to 40 million people and put the rest of the country at risk and increase the debt and deficit, they have the right to do that you can't do it from the executive branch because the executive branch doesn't have that right under the constitution this is power politics trying to buy votes. it's that simple it should be called out. >> thank you judd gregg, governor and senator and former senator hydeeidi heitkamp you want to forgive? >> i want debt restructured. there is an ability under the statute to restructure debt. >> all right all right. thank you, both.

>> thank you coming up, tech playbook for the second half of the year is up next. lit te wtalk to katie stockton as we prepare to kickoff the third quarter. we'll be right back.

it's the first trading day of the month and quarter and second half of the year. joining us to look at the playbook for tech stocks is

steve kovach >> it was the big inwinner and a bounce back from the dismal run. apple is up 49% so far this year hitting thetri $3 trillion mark cap on friday. nvidia up 189% those incredible runs also made the stocks more expensive relative to earnings going into the back half of the year. the pe ragtios is microsoft from 23 to 32 other catalysts to look for the name apple facing a fall in demand for products iphone 15 in the fall will have to wow people to make up for

down sales microsoft still trying to close the $69 million deal to buy activision investors focused on a.i. and expect to see more product announcements with that throughout the year. alphabet, look out for the plans to make money off the a.i. tools in search ago products like google docs. it is still behind microsoft and the year of he effi efficies helping the investors so far and analysts are bullish on the a.i. chip darling, but selloff in the recent days sending shares lower we are waiting to hear from the commerce department about restrictions on a.i. exports to china. finally, guys, amazon trying to stay in the a.i. conversation especially because of the market leadership in cloud. there is nothing tangible there yet, but prime day is a good test of consumer demand ahead of

the holidays that's what we got >> how about the delay of the ar hea headset? >> production. numbers are all over the place for this thing you know, we heard they will ship 1 million next year that got so they could still figure it out by then. >> not the apocalypse but -- >> the magnificent 7 they call that >> the magnificent 7. >> what was the average multiple at the beginning of the year >> it was -- i wish we had the wall back up i don't have it all memorized, but it's gotten way more expensive. >> with the fed raising rates, five, six, seven times multiples, that's not supposed to happen. >> exactly these stocks are getting super

expensive. >> does it matter if we know fundamentally what's supposed to happen -- >> that's why earnings season is going to be a real tell. >> are you sure? because it's the multiple -- >> look at apple apple is going to have a down year it's going to be a third quarter in a row of down sales the stk'ocs going up, all time highs. >> steve, thanks "squawk box" is right back bm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. (vo) this is sadie, she's on verizon. the network she can count on. what will you create? and now she has myplan, the game-changing new plan that lets her get exactly what she wants and save on every perk. sadie is moving to the big city and making moves on her plan, too. apple one, on.

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ahead of tomorrow's holiday, 94% of americans plan to make a purchase for festivities, food is at the top of the list followed by alcohol. an estimated -- stop the presses, i don't want anyone to fall over. >> alcohol people are buying alcohol? >> for july 4th, people may be buying food and alcohol. an estimated 47% are expected to

purchase alcoholic beverages with the majority buying beer. joining us now, comedian zane lanfry, zane also hosted shows like three sheets, focusing on local eating and drinking trends as into the wind. >> it's funny because i see that statistic. i'm actually 40% alcohol myself. >> aren't we all >> yeah, well, are we? >> we're at least half bacteria, which is interesting >> that's -- mine was way more fun. >> what -- you're going to bud light, where are you going with this >> what do you mean i'm going to bud light? >> i don't know. we're talking about drinking on -- >> i know, and they prepped me that we would be talking about this but i have to tell you, who has made an opinion on this whether they're rational or not and is left unscathed. >> i have not -- i will not opine. i hear you can get $15 back. that would do it for me. >> there's a coupon, yeah. >> yeah.

up to so many per household. >> i'm not sure how i feel about anything i would do that. >> i would say right now that i don't have a dog in that fight i do standup comedy, so i'm in craft breweries doing my show. i've done, as of last night, so i was in bay shore, long island at great south bay brewing, and jersey the night before, and that was show number 261 at craft bactreweries the macro stuff, people can do what they want people have this emotional connection to these brands that they think is tied to taste, and i've done the experience and i promise you they all are supposed to come to a mutual flavor profile, and then they all taste very, very similar, if not the same, and so people have emotional reasons why they choose it. they might not realize that, a lot of it is the marketing, the pac packaging. >> hence all the money that's spent on --

>> that's right, that's right, so people are buying the macro beers, the major laggers because of an emotional connection. >> let's talk about you. do you use the f word? >> i can use it right now if you'd like. >> don't but what kind of comedian are you do you tell jokes that can get you canceled now i watch guys going -- i saw chris rock's latest thing. he deliberately and some of the other guys, are deliberately pushing the envelope to say, look, i can because we need to take this back. >> it is the job of a comedian to push the envelope >> do you do that? >> i mean, on many levels. i don't get political, but i do have to push the envelope because if you're not pushing it to the edge and then at the end giving it a spin, then you're not really doing comedy. like you have to -- you have to take that as far as you can go to that line, but of course, you know, as jim jeffries said, like that rline has moved the line is always moving.

>> moved >> if you want to sell a special to an amazon, which you have done, correct, do you want to push the envelope? are they looking for comics who are pushing comedians who are pushing -- will create controversy? >> i'm not looking to create controversy. i'm a story teller my stuff is just as funny as the people who are pushing it and pushing, you know, the certain hot button topics, but i don't -- i don't do that that's just not my style i want people to come out, have a good time. like i said, i'm doing my show at breweries around the country. i've done i think 40 so far this year, i have 70 more for the rest of the year at craft breweries. these are people that are coming supporting me, supporting their local craft brewery, we're just there to have fun. >> i'm glad you're here, i want you to come back it's a good segment for the day before the 4th of july i always tell comedians jokes and give them the opportunity to

use my jokes. >> and how do i react? >> i'm just going to tell you one. >> is it going to be the how many days in a month >> no. it's going to be i just got a pit bull kollie mix. she'll rip your face off but then go get help. >> great i'll use that in my show. >> that was my reaction. >> i had an eye roll involved. >> do you remember lassie? >> i understand the joke i understand the pieces. >> but you don't want to use that >> he dint oesn't think it's fu. >> i'll try another -- >> how many months have 28 days? >> one >> all of them okay so that's not necessarily stuff we would busg e inon stage >> thank you >> "squawk box" will be right back >> none of my jokes.

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was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com good morning, stocking in the first half of 2023 with a bang, we'll find out what you should be watching as we kick office second half of the year on wall street tesla's stock jumping in the premarket after beating delivery expectations that stock and others on the move this morning. and a travel nightmare, delays, cancellations, and some controversy about one airline's ceo flying private we'll break down the sector and talk to the points guy about what you should know before you go as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with melissa lee, the only two people that didn't realize a tuesday july 4th would have made a really good opportunity to take the monday off to have a four-day weekend. >> i could have had off, but they asked me to do the show. >> and you said -- >> i heard it was with you, and i said absolutely i will work. >> here's what i like. i like the idea that we come in and do this and then we have tomorrow off so this is like sort of an extension of the weekend, which was sort of disrupted by three hours, but then back to the barbecue -- >> and then you can take the full day off later. >> only three days left after that i'm okay u.s. equity futures -- and happy

to be here u.s. equity futures at this hour are a little bit down. actually, you'd call it mixed because only the dow is off. nasdaq had a big gain on friday up 32. the markets are going to close early today ahead of the fourth of july holiday. we're shopping for some cbd gummies or something for thing to the dogs. pushed through a gate and made it to the basement because of the fireworks last night was already huddled down, pet petrified. i think maybe don't cbd gummies work i think that might work to calm down -- >> i have no idea. >> you don't have dogs >> i don't have dogs i have no experience with cbd. >> i think that cbds might work. people will probably let me know treasuries this morning, take a quick look oh hi >> oh, is that him

that's zane. >> he just had him on. >> thanks. >> joe's trying to sabotage his career. >> you normally don't. you can hear that with anyone who's out there? as i say, he was waving his hand we get some other stuff happening out there that's a little -- >> may be other things. >> exactly let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> good morning, melissa, good morning, joe i'm also happy to be with you guys on this independence day eve morning. we mentioned the tesla move, we'll start there, it's up big around 7% this at stage premarket over 1.3 million shares of trading volume it reported second quarter delivery and production numbers that both beat analysts' expectations tesla posted 466,000, 140 deliveries for the period and 479,700 vehicles produced. the quarter does also mark the fifth one in a row where tesla production outpaced its

deliveries so those more bullish numbers could indicate ceo elon musk's strategy to lure in potential consumers and buyers with price cuts is working. tesla shares you can see have been on a really, really meteoric rise over the last couple of months here. so we'll keep an eye on those shares we're also watching drug giant astrazeneca, which is down roughly 5 to 6% premarket. the downside is being driven in large part by results of a cancer drug trial. this trial did show efficacy on slowing the progression of the lung cancer disease. it was not as positive adds some analysts were hoping and expecting. that somewhat relative disappointmenti is driving the downside netflix is looking to revamp its strategy with regard to advertising offerings in an attempt to grow that business. that's according to a report from "the financial times.

netflix will develop more targeting advertising strategies and custom made formats in a bid to grow its newly developed advertising supported subscription pricing tiers so melissa, joe, some big name stocks on the move this morning. i will also point out for joe's sake, just to add a little insight here that my in-laws really do subscribe to this idea that cbd gummies help with their dogs in the fireworks. >> we got to try something, dom. i tried to get melissa, you were tossing about how i said say one word, two words. >> two words s. >> and she said no. >> maybe i don't trust joe say something on national tv -- >> rickie fowler. >> he seems to do well in detroit. the crazy part is he's sponsored by rocket mortgage, right? >> you saw the putt in the playoff, and you saw his reaction which i thought was timeless -- you saw his beautiful -- you know, he didn't have a wife or kid last time he won. all that's changed he's doing well.

it's good to see. >> it's not just that, everything that he does right now, he's enjoying this renaissance, he's coming back. people are starting to pay a lot more attention to him. even i mean, i don't know if you saw this, odyssey, which is owned by calloway top golf, whatever they want to call themselves now, they have this putter, the jailbird it's what wyndham clark and rickie fowler used in the u.s. open, what he just won with. they're re-releasing it on sale because it's going for all kinds of money on ebay right now, so they're preordering it there's an economic impact i guess. >> also to come back after what was disappointing at l.a. north, i think that shows rickie really is back. that's good. he's one of the great -- he got a lot of attention for winning five or six tournaments, a lot of sponsorships, and that's the wrap on him, you know, he's got a lot more -- almost like kournikova, remember her she got more attention for never actually winning i don't think

>> and then, you know, of course dating enrique iglesias and everything else. >> oh, wow, you're with me you're so with many e. >> i am. i would say this, rickie's got a player's championships he's almost there. >> you're right. see you later, dom it's monday before july 4th, we have time. i want to say i'm still wrong. >> investors are gearing up to kick off a holiday shortened trading week in the start of a second half in a stellar year for stocks the s&p 500 matching its strongest first half of the year since 2019 the nasdaq gaining 31% for its best first half since 1983 when it gained nearly 40% for insights on what to expect as we count down to the next earning cycle, let's bring in sam stovall good to have you with us. >> thank you glad to be among the three up early on the day before the fourth of july. >> three total in the whole

universe 4575 is your year end s&p 500 target what is sort of the -- what are the contours of that path to the end of the year from here? >> well, i think that we're likely to see a positive second half i mean, traditionally a strong first half ends up serving as a running start to the second half typically, we're up about 4.5% in the second half since world war ii rising about 70% of the time if you have the first half up more than 10%, and this one was up higher than 15%, then you end up with about an 8% gain on average rising in price about 82% of the time, so basically what it says is that those portfolio managers, who were underperforming the market put the pedal to the metal and tried to catch up. >> you make a point, though, sam, about small caps and lack of participation that really gets at the concern for bears who say that there hasn't been enough participation in this market >> well, participation really

has been growing 60% of the stocks in the s&p 500 are positive on the year, two out of every three are above their 200day moving average, and we are seeing the small and mid caps improve in price, especially when they have relative pe ratios that are close to a 40% discount. i also think that because the magnificent seven are really tech dominated, you've got 28% of the s&p 500 in tech, yet you have less than 14% tech in the s&p small cap 600 and a dominance of financials and real estate in the smaller indices, so they've been pressured by the fear over higher interest rates. so i think once the fed raises rates in july and then sort of hits the pause button, there's a likelihood that we skcould see significant improvement in the mid is and and small cap arena. >> you make the point that small caps have sort of led in every

bull market. we have seen it broadening out of the market, we have seen small caps perk up a bit particularly since mid-may or so where do you stand on the necessity for small caps participate? >> i would like certainly for to see them participate going back to the early 1980s when the russell 2000 was created, they have outperformed the s&p in the first 12 months o'after bull market as well as 12 months after the s&p 500 hit its 20% advance off for the prior bear market low, and in both of those instances we are not seeing the small caps in a leadership role. so you know, the question is, is it because almost every other time we had a fed that was cutting interest rates and we were coming out of recession whereas in '87 and this time we're actually in a rising interest rate environment and we're still looking around to see if a recession is at hand.

it could be sifrpmply a matter f time. >> a lot of the big cap tech stocks have gained we've seen multiple expansion is and not the commensurate earnings increase in terms of estimates, sam, and so you know, getting to 4575 by the end of the year, do we see continued leadership amongst tech stocks, or do we see sort of the handoff to the other parts of the market >> well, what's interesting is that in a sense you let your winners ride, that going back to 1990, which is as far back as s&p has sector level data, that the three best performing sectors in the first half outperform the market about 60% of the time in the second half, recording a similar frequency of advance. so at least you're going to stay in line with the market, if not guilty outperform it i also see strength occurring in the industrials and a little bit of green shoots and materials and energy, i would certainly stay away from the staples, health care, utilities areas

because i think investors are essentially switching from, oh, no, to fomo, and so they're focusing more on the cyclical and growth areas but i would not be surprised if we see some sort of digestion of gains in this more volatile third quarter. >> sam, thanks, happy fourth sam stovall. flight delays making the fourth of july holiday weekend a travel nightmare united giving 30,000 frequent flyer miles to customers impacted by the chaos. the points guy, ceo brian kelly joins us next to discuss quk x"ilbeig bk.

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thousands of flights were delayed this holiday weekend as americans set off on the busiest travel weekend since before covid. joining us now on how to mitigate your losses if one of your flights was delayed or canceled, brian kelly, founder and ceo of the points guy. the weather, the weather, the weather. we're feeling it here. i watch a lot of major league baseball games they're all delayed. there's weather all over the place combined with a total rebound in -- from covid and travel so that presents a pretty daunting situation for the airlines in a nutshell, that's it, isn't it, brian? >> yeah, in simple words it's a perfect storm, but it's not just the weather that's causing this.

we've had bad weather for years. it's a lot of different issues, you know, and a key thing is staffing while most delays are not faa directly related in terms of air traffic control, there is a severe shortage of air traffic controllers that the secretary buttigieg has said they're hiring thousands more over the next couple of years, but we're still behind what happens is these weather events happen, and you know, departures get delayed crews can't get to where they're going, and then the airlines, you know, have their own internal meltdowns when their crews just can't get to where they're going. that's what we saw with southwest. to an extent united had it with their crew scheduling system sort of melting down i think the airlines need to make major investments swas wel as our government. >> the faa needs to keep investing, obviously, in all those systems. i didn't realize, yeah, that i can't imagine how complex it is for an airline to keep flight

crews all straight one guy or gal that is under the -- under the weather, so to speak, that has -- can ripple all the way through. brian, the boeing has had to retrofit a couple of things, and we hear about production problems from time to time does that factor into anything, are any planes out of commission >> you know, that is an issue. air bus and boeing have said they can't keep up with demand airlines have pulled a lot of planes out of storage that they said they would never fly again, so they're sort of fixing the issue there, but you know, they're flying older planes. i was flying unit aded a couplef weeks ago. certainly these newer generation aircraft that are more fuel efficient and break down less, they're not, you know, flying as much as they should be due to these delays i will also note, july 1st marked, you know, the telecom

industry across the u.s. rolled out 5g, and all airplanes need to be compliant, and not all airlines have updated their planes, which means they can't land in low visibility so we may see some additional delays and cancellations because airlines will have to avoid flying planes that haven't been updated to handle 5g to not land in cities with low visibility. so there are just so many different factors. plus, the biggest is demand. demand is up we're likely going to see some record numbers this past weekend. the system is under immense pressure >> we've talked about scott kirby. i don't -- there's a lot of times i just -- i don't know, we're in a current environment where everything is, you know, under a microscope actually, not everything's under a microscope depends on some things, what the media decides to cover so fortune 100 companies, you got a lot of them. most of the ceos have access to either a net jets card or they may even own a couple of jets.

so some fortune 100 ceos in newark, and he's got to be somewhere. none of those guys would be dependent on united airlines flying out of newark and the vicissitudes and the problems with united. you got the united ceo who is there, who is trying to fly out of there every other ceo would fly out on a private jet but because he's the ceo of united is he supposed to go to the united counter and see if he can get wait listed on another flight later is that really what we expect him to do? >> especially because we would want the ceo traveling, making sure his teams have everything in place so that thousands of passengers can get back to where they're going. clearly that was just the -- people need scape fgoats and th optics of that look poorly at the time when you look at that objectively, he's trying to fix the airline's operation, needs to get hub to hub.

would you really want him stealing the seat from a passenger who hasn't seen their family i think that was a little bit silly and misfocused i will just say for passengers, united did give those 30,000 miles, which is roughly $400 to a lot of people, but when your flights are canceled or delayed, what people don't realize, always go to your credit card company. the credit card companies offer flight delay and cancellation insurance. so many people forget that their credit cards will actually reimburse them for the rebooked flights, hotels, et cetera so i always like to remind people of that. >> that's a good -- that is a good reminder, brian it's a modern -- number one, flying at 30,000, 40,000 feet and going coast to coast in a couple hours, you know, that's almost like a time machine compared to what we've, you know, except for the last 100 years, it's unheard of 50,000 flights a day, it's amazing, but it's hard it's hard and there's weather, and there's staffing, and it's a

lot better than driving. i can tell you that. although driving can be fun. >> and safer >> and safer >> thanks, brian, see you later. coming up, the fed's stress test on the banks could mean positive returns for investors the details next. and then the s.e.c. saying the spot bitcoin filings are inadequate that's on crypto following on friday since bounce back sl slightly, we're above 30,000 we will talk crypto and the s.e.c. in just a bit listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf

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after friday's announcements from several big banks on dividends stemming from the bank stress tests earlier in the week, what's next for the sector leslie picker also didn't think about taking monday off and getting a four-day weekend she joins us as well >> where else would i be, joe? >> thanks for being here >> you're very welcome the largest banks sharing plans to bump up their dividends, the flurry of headlines coming after the fed's stress tests green lit the minimal level of capital these firms needed to hold onto before returning more to shareholders the biggest dividend hikes subject to board approval came from wells fargo with a 17% jump

from $0.30 to $0.35 a share. fw goldman sachs and morgan stanley reduced their dividends by 10% the dividend plans were complemented in most cases by buyback plans that were already in place without initiating additional repurchases banks are being extra conservative with their capital this year because there are still several more regulatory actions expected to come down the pike that could require they hold onto more capital that's in part why some smaller firms subject to the stress test made no changes this their capital return plans for example, citizens financial, truist, and capital one each shared the results from the fed without announcing changes to dividends or buyback plans oh banks like b of a have yet to release their plans but are expected to do so as soon as today. >> we're out of the woods, right? they're going at least two more

hikes supposedly, maybe at this point, but it's been quiet since first republic and silicon valley, too quiet or not we're done we're okay >> it's hard to say if we're out of the woods you talk to regulators and they'll pinpoint -- they'll say there's a couple of banks out there that are teetering a bit, and there's a lot of deleveraging taking place, you know, behind the scenes and out front, and so the question, i think, remains what ultimately happens with these capital rules by holding more capital, what does that do to margins. if they're so pressured will banks need to consolidate in order to generate scale to absorb some of these capital requirements, to absorb some of the risk oversight that people are pointing to as the result from march is some of the reasons why i say silicon valley bank failed. they didn't have the appropriate risk team in place all of those things, i think it's too early to say that we're out of the woods, but it has been, you know, a few months of

calm at least at this point, joe. >> yes, it has, and there's still got to be some duration risk if they had to mark everything -- >> yes >> thanks, leslie. >> still to come, the s.e.c. saying a recent wave of applications for spot bitcoin etfs are inadequate. plus, are ipos back? nasdaq's head of global listings will join us after the latest surge in public debuts stay tuned you're watchg quk x"nd iss cnbcawbo a (♪♪) (basketball swish)

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the s.e.c. saying applications for spot bitcoin etfs are inadequate, according to "the wall street journal," the agency informed the nasdaq and the cboe that blackrock in fidelly's proposals are insufficient the news sending the price of bitcoin down on friday, it says here i don't know -- it doesn't look like it there. joining us now is anthony pomp lee awe know founder of pomp investments. that's a yearly high or at least a year-to-date high where it is right now, 30,600, isn't it, anthony? >> pretty close to it, joe >> yeah, there are times when i

feel inadequate, i don't know about you, anthony but it's a very sort of a diffuse, not a real specific feeling because that's what i feel like the s.e.c., what the -- what is inadequate, blackrock and fidelity don't know how to do an application for a spot what about it is inadequate, pomp, and would they rather have ftx and binance all and all these changes involved instead of something as specific as the underlying asset itself? they just don't like bitcoin, that's all there is to it. >> i think we have to separate out the historical trends and conversation from this specific issue. what the s.e.c. is saying, all of you put forward these applications there's a specific detail that's unclear. who are you going to be working with you say in the application you're working with someone, who is it? they're not rejecting the application, they're not saying, hey, these are not going to get approved what they're simply saying is give us the full information we want to understand it

we've seen cboe refile cla clarifying that those surveillance sharing agreements will be with coinbase. my expectation is we'll see nasdaq doing the same thing early this week. this is a lot of hoopla and a lot of conversation. at the end of the day, it's a very small detail. it leads to, look, bits coin is up 85% to start the year it's the best performing asset in the first half of the year. what we're watching is wall street saying, we want access to this thing, and they're knocking on the door now. the s.e.c. is going to have to make some decisions as to hwhic applications they want to approve. >> what i found interesting about what you just said is that you think it's just a formality, and it's going to happen i don't know whether that's true if it is, fine, but so what if they come back and still -- because they seem like they haven't wanted to let this happen do you think it's fundamentally different now because it's blac blackrock and fidelity and some big names? so you think it's just a matter

of time and it's a formality so it's going to happen? that's going to be hijuge if it happens. >> look, again, i don't have a crystal ball, i don't think anyone does. blackrock's got a 575 to 1 record in terms of these etf applications whenever you see something like that that is blackrock, et cetera they probably have a very high degree of confidence that is going to get approved. does that mean it's going to get approved next week or in a year? i'm not sure but i think that most people have confidence that a bitcoin spot etf will be approved at some point and the real question is once that happens, how big will it get, right we saw the futures etf had about a billion dollars of inflow in the fist week. so if a spot etf gets approved, will we see a billion dollars in a single day it seems pretty crazy to me we've gotten this far, $600 billion in the bitcoin asset without a spot etf in the united states, and so when it happens, i do think that a lot of people will pour capital into it there's too many people who want exposure to this protect for us to never get it.

>> you never know, some things top out when, you know, it's bought on the rumor and sell on the news but bitcoin has held up, i mean, 85% as you point out at the same time that all these headlines were hitting about sam bankman-fried, about all cz, all these things were hitting and it almost was as if, yeah, those are ancillary. we're talking about the asset itself we're not talking about the people handling the asset. it's almost like it strengthened -- i mean, 85%, but it's still down from 65,000 as people point out >> of course, and i think that, you know, bitcoin is anti-fragile, right? the reason why that's important, if you look at the start of the year, nasdaq's up about 32%. it's the fastest start in the first six months of a year since about 1983 bitcoin is up almost triple that, and so to talk about the performance of this asset to be up, you know, 85% and it almost seems like no one's paying

attention. yes, it is down still. i think that what we have to realize is that the underlying fundamentals of bitcoin continue to strengthen as well. we see adoption hitting all time highs. we continue to see all of these different data points that we know feed into the price leading into the having that's going to occur next year. again, we've talked about it on this program for years now, bitcoin as an asset, it's not controlled by anyone there are millions and millions of people around the world that continue to adopt it the public narrative sometimes is bullish sometimes it's bearish there's greed and feed bitcoin continues to do what it's designed to do, it produces block after block of transactions anyone in the world with internet connections can go ahead and use it therefore we're watching around the world, people are razealizig the value of that and putting all sorts of capital into the network, and we're watching the performance follow. >> melissa lee was doing crypto before anybody was doing it on her show would you say you've been ignored? >> we had a bitcoin bug. yeah, we had it up in --

>> he says people aren't really noticing have you done much on it lately? >> we do it when there's milestones, yeah, for sure it's not like maybe once a week, but -- >> right >> before you go, let's say gary gensler resigns which was the rumor circulating around the internet over the weekend. does the crypto trade go higher? is it as easy as that or no? >> i saw the rumor i have no clue whenever i see anonymous sources and coming from kind of pseudo anonymous accounts on twitter, i pay attention but take it with a grain of salt. i do think there's probably some sort of short-term impact in prices over the long-term, i don't think who the regulator is is going to matter as much. take the bitcoin etf as an example. there was regulators before gary gensler, it wasn't approved then either so i tend to think that we put a lot of time and effort focused on individuals, but at the end of the day, this is a technology trend that in the short-term, you know, it can be resisted there can be friction, but i do

think over the long-term, it's pretty obvious this is something people want and ultimately, i think the people will get it >> that's what we're going to be watching for then. i thought those were excuses so there were some specific things they're asking for about surveillance that are easily answered and then they won't -- you say they won't have an excuse at that point to not go forward with it, that's your viewpoint. >> look, they can come up with all different kinds of reasons why they don't want it. >> they have been, yeah. >> this specific reason, the surveillance sharing agreement, it came out late last week, they already re-filed for a number of these, wisdom tree, invesco, fidelity, et cetera. my guess is they could come up with something else, but this specific thing is not going to be a big deal. >> okay, pomp, anthony pompliano, thank you >> thanks, guys. coming up, nasdaq's global head of list, karen snow, will join us to talk about the ipo market for the second half of the year follow squawk pod on your

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tesla, which is moving higher in the premarket by 6% on record deliveries for the second quarter. treasury secretary janet yellen will travel to beijing to meet with senior chinese officials. senior administration official said the trip's intended to improve communications between the two countries and doesn't expect any significant breakthroughs on major issues. chinese media reports say yellen will be in china from thursday through sunday coming up, the ipo market gaining steam. we will t olo songeanutokecd half of 2023 katie stockton will join us to talk technicals. "squawk box" will be right back. . well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across clouds, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check.

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after stagnation of the ipo market, there has been a significant turn around in recent months with nasdaq's announcement of impressive ipo numbers and more companies registering with regulators to go public. in the first half of 2023, it welcomed 60 ipos raising a total of $3.7 billion. joining us now is karen snow, nasdaq's global head of listings karen, great to have you with us. >> thank you so much >> this has got to be a surprise to you given last year and the prognostications of just a quiet equity market in general, all these concerns about a recession, et cetera. >> yeah, well, a lot has to do

with what the fed is signaling to the marketplace and as you know, markets tend to trade ahead of that. there's been a rlot of fantastic companies willing and able to access the markets their businesses aren't so recessionary prone, so these companies that are coming out now are trading, you know, extremely well >> so it sounds like there is a little bit of a rush to get out of the gates before things got rough in the second half of the year is that sort of the thinking >> no, i wouldn't say that i would say that we have seen more and more companies access the markets. the follow-on markets have been incredible there's been 420 deals that have come to market raising 50 billion. at nasdaq we've actually had 62 deals come on the ipo front raising 4 billion, so there's been a steady pace here. we've got an 85% win rate, and we've had two of the top three

largest ipos come to market. next tracker, which was a spinout from flex, nasdaq listed, that's traded up about 66% since it came to market. they've also done a follow-on. we have axel ron that's traded up about 16% since it came to market these are large ipos that the markets have been really excited about. we also had the spinout of ge health care. why that wasn't a traditional ipo, they've had the largest follow-on year-to-date so the markets are receptive investors are looking for new issuance, so we're expecting the second half to be pretty decent j >> you can't have a full-fledged, full blown ai fervor, boom, without ipos that's impossible. there's no way around it, there will be an ipo boom in ai. >> there absolutely will be,

yes. >> and it's coming. >> there will be and those actually might be the situations where those companies might not be profitable yet. so everybody that we've seen come to market to date has really been profitable. >> oh, yeah, profitable, go up four times the value yeah, that's -- you know that's coming the ipo markets three steps forward, two steps back. you throw in covid, that threw everything off, but if it goes -- it's onward and upward to new highs, don't you think? it's just the way we work. >> well, yeah, the nasdaq as ewe cited is up 32% year-to-date, which is the largest move it's had since -- >> 48. >> yeah, exactly very exciting. the s&p is coming through, and you're starting to see it spread out. i know we've been very focused on the ai stocks, but ai is going to have huge implications from productivity, to go to market strategies. it's big >> i can't imagine could it be like the internet? could it be comparable to the

internet >> i think it absolutely will be and i think it will hit our economy faster i think the internet bubble and how those -- those companies really needed to evolve their business models. we needed to evolve the models around the technology. models. a.i. is really fitting in to what we're already doing >> some great things in terms of health care and medicine and everything and even how you administer medicine. >> clinical trials >> but then. i think about we're going to have to help people find other things to do people will be replaced by a.i never us >> i think of it in a way that will enable us to focus on

things that we can really make a difference people have been worried about robotics and what that would mean >> some kind of machines displacing people. i mean farming has 1% of the labor force it had a hundred years ago. >> seeing how publicly traded companies react to the mention of a.i. or they're doing something that will generate revenues because of a.i., are you worried when these a.i. ipos come we're getting poised for a bubble or thuings that are too frot frothy >> i'm not worried about that. there may be some companies that say they do things that aren't necessarily as impactful as, you know, they're suggesting they

are but hopefully you'll see that pretty quickly. it will be transparent who the winners and losers will be >> is nasdaq hoping it gets approved >> i would say yes >> because of the trading volumes? >> well, i think we recognize there's big opportunities around bitcoin. i think it's benefits and starts but that it would be a good outcome. >> karen, great to speak with you. thank you for coming in. >> great to be here. >> karen know. snow. >> apple is slashing production. they scaled back an internal target, expecting to make less than fewer than 400,000 of them. and they said they have asked

for parts to make 150,000. tyson foods reintroducing certain antibiotics will drop no antibiotics to no anti-biotics ever they said they are going to add an antibiotic to prevent -- officials argued the use of

anti- antibiotics. sounds like way that you can do it but, you know, gmos -- do you know how many years we've been breeding to do a gmo does not make it a scary frankenstein thing this is useful technology. let's see if you get sick if you don't take a gmo medicine that's been developed all these targeted cancer they're therapeutics are all genetically developed. stop the presses >> you were against it from the beginning. >> i was clint does a movie when he's 90 and he gets recruited to do a drug deal. indiana jones can't be 80 years old and i'm not ageist, believe

me i don't like it when somebody -- >> holds something against you >> yes >> it was a disappointment at the box office this weekend, pulling in just $60 million in sales, the fifth and final film in the "indiana jones" series pulled in $60 million. >> i'm not going to trash a comcast, though. no, i would. but i might be a little nicer. coming up, katie stockton. and the supreme court blocking the student loan forgiveness "squawk box" is coming right "squawk box" is coming right back.

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good morning, get ready for the second half.

can the markets follow up on the strong performance that we saw in the first six months. what the charts are telling investors now. tesla delivers for second quarter deliveries is it too late to get on board and ride with elon musk? and what's next for student loan debt following the supreme court's decision to knock down president biden's relief plan? final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen becky and andrew have the day off. s&p is looking to lose about 2.5 in the open.

nasdaq holding on to a gain barely of 1.5% we're seeing a pop in the tesla premarket but a breather after the nasdaq posted its best first half in 40 years we're watching the 2-year, 4.93% and 10-year 3.86 tesla, they are on the move this morning, reporting second quarter delivery numbers tesla posted 466,140 deliveries for the period and 479,700 vehicles produced. the quarter also marked the fifth in a row where tesla production outpaced delivery we'll get into the stock performance with the bull and bear at 8:30 p.m. eastern time results of a lung cancer drug trial showed efficacy but wasn't as positive as expected, the

stock down 6% and janet yellen will travel to meet with senior counterparts the trip is intended to deepen and increase the future of communication, stabilize a relationship and expand collaboration where we can >> the markets will have a tough act to follow, especially with the nasdaq mike, there are some historical th things we can look at. it's unusual for the averages not to continue in the second half if they've had big gains. >> typically you got unwind a first half gain of this kind by the end of the calendar year here's the 1-year.

that's fine, too we did surmount the august highs from last year since october, a series of high a higher lows. we're seeing kconcerns about recession getting pushed out a little bit that was a very modest pullback in the past couple weeks we'll see if that leaves us out there on a little bit of a ledge going into the second half just in the short term in terms of having to digest what we've done already. big criticism of this rally has been that it's been too narrow, not inclusive enough look at the s&p 500 relative this version from an intra day low, it's up 19.8%. we're within a few pennies of

that you see them moving in sync at the same angle over the last few weeks. we have had more stocks participate. it's certainly not a purely across-the-board type rally. you have banks and energy suffering still. what i also like, it's been a global move to a fair degree in terms of the equity strength look at the life coming back into that economy. kind of fascinating to see that we're running for the global

database so to speak >> still not 20%, though >> on the equal weight >> going back to the october lows, that's one thing but going to 3,200, the mike wilson possible numbers he didn't say for sure looking at a lot of those numbers -- >> that's a long way down here 4450 is where we are right now >> we're going to talk about that let's talk about 4450 with katie stockton she does technicals, managing partner and cnbc contributor we talked in the past about how technical analysis works it is trend following so i don't expect you to know everything. and it also i think there's times when it's probabilities. when we were at 4000 trying to figure out if we're going back

to 3,200, you thought we'd stay in that range but it was a probability. what was the probability you saw that we'd get to 4450? >> when we got the breakout. >> when was that >> in mid may we have the breakout above that 4155 >> 4000 you certainly did not think -- >> we were working under the assumption that that range would hold and it did not. really your point is very good in that we're always just trying to put odds in our favor nobody knows what's going to be the next month or the next year even worry trying to make sure we have momentum gauges on our side, relative strength on our side, make sure there's no big overbought sell signals. that's our charge. we want those things supporting the market when we do, bullish. when we don't, we shift back to

bearish. >> what's at 4450? is anything left >> the breakout did yield an obje objective of 4510. that would be a natural place for a pullback to unfold, more than what we've already seen as long as the momentum is there and we don't have any big overbought sell signals, which we don't at this time, we want to stay with the bullish bias until it proves us otherwise, until we see that loss of momentum i think this market is probably a very long-term trading range if you look at the monthly gauges, you'll see they tend to flatten out when you look forward a couple years to me within that context, we have to have an intermediate term momentum. >> should we look at the nasdaq differently than the s&p it fell a lot more it rebounded a lot more but it also fell a lot more are we seeing basically the same

thing if you just sort of average things out is it the same phenomenon? >> the momentum there is the same they maintain a very high correlation between the nasdaq and the s&p 500. it has an opportunity to go to new highs. we just saw apple break out to new all-time highs i don't know why nobody seems to be talking about that. that's a big deal. the more breakouts we see from a bottom-up perspective. it tends to allow breadth to move further and it has advanced and it confirms the breakouts that we've seen since mid may and should foster a little bit of up side follow-through. >> did you just say the better the mega caps do in terms of breakups it allows the other

parts of the market catch up more do you believe it could be at the cost of the leadership groups moving higher >> if you look at the mega caps, they still have great momentum you might see the relative strength falter for the mega caps but at the same time, they should be trending higher. what they can do for the market is instill confidence. if we had apple putting become massively, chances are confidence isn't great >> the multi-year trading range means we don't go to new highs any time soon on the s&p >> that would suggest that that 4800 final resistance for the s&p probably remains in tact or if it's breached, probably only temporarily or briefly so we want to be somewhat noncommittal to the up trend with that in mind. we're still okay with having

sort of a balanced portfolio, you're not fully exposed to equities to the degree you were. >> less than a crappy 10% from where we are now for how many years >> our indicators go out to the end of 2025. >> that's a real significant thing you're telling us. >> to me it's also kind of worst case scenario because it's a more difficult market for investors and even also traders when they can't assert this long-term directional bias and have more of the odd in their favor. >> so we got a lot of the advances and the average is based on what the fed was doing and we have dues to pay now? is that what's happening >> and it global japan has this great breakout on the long-term basis but a vast majority of the market look poised for that range

environment. the u.s. is kind of leading that charge i think >> what about bitcoin at 30,600. i think that broke out first and up s you said 30,500, i think you said, wasn't that an important number >> the other thing that i guess foreshadowed a breakout in equities was a breakdown in the index. we think there's up side to about 36,000 based on the projection from the last breakout >> 36,000. so the vix never gave us what we were supposed to get >> yeah. >> maybe because we don't go new highs, it didn't give us a new like overriding bull market because it didn't capitulate seeing it back to 30 or 40 so we

didn't have the sellout bottom that you need to make a great bottom, we never had it? so we never get to new highs they >> with the vix the new floor to me seems to be and 11. the breakdowns we've seen in the vix suggested we move to a higher volatility regime to something lower volatility but not such an easy environment >> there's also technical factors, expiration options on the s&p 500. people are in constructive markets like karen >> i'm just asking do any of your guys -- >> everybody's entitled to their opinion. >> definitely. i'm just wondering whether anyone ever got bullish with 35% on the nasdaq.

i called katie out on that, too. you're talking about trends. trends sometimes by the time you realize you're in a trend we got 10% -- >> you can come on "fast money." >> i'll come on "fast money. i on come on when certain people are on >> i understand that >> katie thank you coming up, the supreme court rejecting president biden's student debt forgiveness we'll talk about new attempts at debt relief. meur iju ax" retnsn st mont the first time you connectd your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

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the supreme court has struck down the biden administration's plan to wipe around $30 billion in student loans sharon >> important steps to take, i'll tell you, melissa, president biden has promised to continue to work on a proposal to forgive student loan debt but admitting that could take many months.

for now the administration is fighting back that will cut down the amount by half and it will give borrowers a bit of a break if they can't make them in the first year by not reporting to credit agencies for 12 months. tens of millions of borrowers will have to start making student loan payments again this fall interest will accrue in september. go to the web site and make sure you know who your loan servicer is and that the information about you is up to date. many borrowers are already in finance risk

if you're worried about affording those bills, go to studentaid.gov start making loan payments to yourself now by stashing money here it will be good practice to see how you'll handle making those payments when they're due again in october >> how about for the parents who took out federal loans to cover their child's educational expenses are those payments due in october as well? >> they are. there are more than 3.7 people that hold parent plus loans, more than $100 billion of all student loans but thee se are nt going to qualify for the plan. >> would employers help? is that worth pursuing >> it is definitely worth inquiring. some will allow employees to get 5,250 a year through repayment

programs if your employer has one, find out about it if you're looking for a job, find out if that company offers these. >> this is maybe the most helpful segment of the entire show >> it was all theoretical. it was so long ago when i was thinking about it. it was in the abstract for me. some people are going to be whoa >> the average student loan is going to be $380 something per month. and that's a lot of money. >> for somebody just out of school or starting out >> and it does something to the fed, too, doesn't it >> you may be able to cut your payment by a thousand dollars or so and that's a significant amount of money. so important to look these things up. and the web site -- the education department's web site has it all spelled out it's really important for people to go there and look for it.

>> for more on the supreme court's ruling on student loan debt relief, former u.s. senator bob kerrey, former president of the new school and former indiana governor mitch daniels, purdue university president emeritus it's been a while. i'm thinking i should call you senator and governor senator kerry, i don't know where to start with you on this. i don't think you guys are going to argue do you think that this was the correct call do you think the president had the ability to do what he was trying to do, senator kerry? >> well, i think so actually there's a lot of problems with the student loan program itself. it's probably the single exception to purdue university where mitch did not have price increases. it puts a lot of pressure on price and universities are not

held at all recourse for when people default but i think the court made a big mistake given the state standing it was based upon a not-for-profit in missouri that's processing loans and i think it may interfere with a legitimate dispute between the legislative and executive branch it's a classic example of the court taking an activist position i think they shouldn't have taken >> when former speaker pelosi says this is obvious that the president can't do that and it can only be done by congress, does she have her facts wrong on that, senator? >> i didn't hear what she said all of us occasionally get our facts wrong. so i don't know. all i know is i read the statute since being invited on the show and it certainly appears to me there's a range of motion here i just think it's inappropriate for the court to have intervened

it's probably extremely difficult for the congress and the president to reach agreement under the current circumstances and it had been far better with a spma smaller program rather tn the executive branch making a decision knowing the congress is going to object. i think the court should not have intervened in what a dispute between the executive and legislative branch >> do you think that people shouldn't repay loans they've taken out when a lot of other people did >> of course they should repay it it's a rare day when i have a difference of opinion with bob kerrey and cite speaker pelosi you say they should never have considered it. plainly the day the president

can spend $400 plus billion with the stroke of a pen we don't have a democracy anymore and article i couldn't be more clear. the obvious institutionality should not obscure the fact this was probably the least defensible domestic program in memory a regressive giveaway to the wealthy and eventually wealthy it's incredibly unfair to those people who paid back their loans. people talk about moral hazard this is the most hazardous we can think of by the way, let's drop the misnomers. this isn't forgiveness and relief this is a transfer of debt from people who borrowed to people who didn't and it's fiscally so wrong headed we should be limiting and reach due reducing debt, not piling more on the next generations. and i think it's entirely

appropriate the court stepped in given the consequences if they didn't thank goodness >> i doesn't think missouri had standing because they have a not-for-profit that's collecting student debt and i think you can see in the language, john roberts is becoming a legislator trying to define what words mean in the act i think in principle it's a mistake to say i'm going to help one group of people that borrowed money and they're not going to have to pay itback while another group of people had to the larger problem here is there's a problem that mitch solved at purdue, which is rising costs for higher education that in many ways is driven by the increased demand that comes with what is it now, 1.7 trillion of student loans. >> governor? >> no, that's right. by the way, another thing wrong with this idea, it would have

made the root cause, which is excessive tuitions and fees and costs worse. it would have encouraged people to think they could get off the hook in the future and we all know that the federal infusions of subsidies have been a major driver of higher tuition it would have made a bad situation worse. the better idea is don't charge so much in the first place secondly, put schools at some risk themselves if their graduate, you know, welch on their freely taken obligations even a modest cost share on the part of schools will really sober them up about their costs, how they coach their students. >> yeah, this is a really good idea i completely agree with you, mitch. i would say modest would be 50%. you got a student that defaults on a loan, the university or college that received the cash in the first place should at least be recourse for half that loan and it would increase their diligence to make sure that when

their students graduate they're able to earn enough money to pay off their debt >> for any other product in the market, the consumers would eventually balk at these price increases and choose another path, another product, et cetera are you starting to see those dynamic comes into play? you were able to keep costs where they are is that driven by having other choices in the market, different paths? >> the consumer, as you put it, has been insulated by grants and by these loans they haven't felt the full burden of the cost if they didn't see the eventual repayment coming, come on, they're college graduates, they should have figured that out that has been a contributing factor it there's a lot of scholarship

that proves it >> it's great having you both on i think governor daniels, if you got back into politics, he'd s still one as a republican. is that your party you're looking at if you were to run again, would you are run as a democrat at this point, senator kerrey >> first of all, i want to die with one ex-wife so i'm not going to run for anything. >> you know what, i didn't really want an answer. i just was sort of like needling you a little bit you have a good midwestern sensibility. man, we're in some crazy places now from both sides. i will say that. thank you former senator kerry, former -- >> have a good 4th, mitch. >> same to you, bob. >> and you, too. >> and you, too.

and you all out there. >> monster beverage has reached a deal to buy bang energy drinks, acquiring all their assets including a production facility located in phoenix. ne vital filed for bankruptcy last year after filing a lawsuit brought by monster >> that's interesting. pretty cool. >> what? >> they call themselves -- >> more americans hitting the record fueled by prices at the pump and follow "squawk box" on your favorite app and listen to us any time we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. a record number of americans traveling by car this holiday weekend. according to gas buddy, the average gas price is $3.51 a gallon, down more than a dollar from a year ago but still

pricey great to have you with us. the average motorist is playing $20 less per fill-up compared to last year? that crystallizes it $20 in your pocket is a lot of money. >> especially those bigger campers and pick-up trucks are going to save $40 to $60 a tank. so far we are seeing the americans hit the road in pretty significant frequency. according to our data, last friday was the highest friday for u.s. gasoline consumption going back to the summer of 2022 so americans are hitting the road so far models, last week's gasoline consumption at 9.6 billion barrels a day. that would be good for one of the highest weekends of the last year, certainly the highest of 2023 and to boot, gas prices that just barely hit their lowest level since late april,

just in time for the long weekend. >> what do goes prices look like going forward, patrick, according to your analysis >> i think the second half of the summer will be more affordable than the first half but that's typical for the summer driving season. by labor day we could see prices at maybe 10 or 20 cents a gallo lower. oil prices could rally and partially offset our forecast for falling prices this august and things like hurricane season or any unexpected refinery outages could make a difference for what motorists are paying going into labor day i do expect downward pressure on prices going into the end of summer this fall barring a major turn around, we could see the national average falling below the $3 a gallon.

>> i'm wondering if there could be fewer motorists going forward? >> i think this summer we are seeing a little bit of a shift in evolution last summer main have been the summer of the road trip. the mask mandate was removed last year. it took the international community about six to 12 months to get things going again. that's why many americans are flying this summer because the international community has opened up without a whole lot of restrictions a lot of motorists still preferring to hit the road this summer but more americans may be putting the car in the garage and doing some of that international travel that hasn't been possible since 2019 look for jet fuel demand to be a bright spot this summer. but with the economic headwinds and challenges, i wouldn't

expect consumption to be anything near 2019's numbers >> and tesla stock roaring out of the gate. what about now is it too late a debate on tesla next calm down. >> and china's ev maker said sales nearly doubled in june shipments in the first half the year also doubled by 1.2 billion. billion. "squawk box" coming right back is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you thi. the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®.

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welcome back to "squawk box. we do have the s&p in the red as well nasdaq is just barely higher after a pretty strong session on friday and the dow down about 60 tesla's report on second quarter vehicle deliveries beating expectations phil lebeau joins us now with the details. >> hey, joe. premarket you're seeing tesla

sh shares get a nice pop up more than 6%. the q2 numbers coming in much better than expected even the most bullish -- the estimate was for 445,000 so well above expectations for the first half of the year, they delivered 889,000 vehicles. that is just under halfway towards the 2023 full-year delivery guidance of 1.8 million. almost every analyst note say the same thing they're likely to hit that 1.8 million. the q2 numbers give them confidence they'll see increased production in the second half of the year this is just one quote we've heard from tesla bulls saying 2g

deliveries massive beat, will send bears into hibernation mode they certainly are on pause, at least for the next couple of weeks as tesla will report its q2 results after the bell on july 19th. as important as these numbers were today, guys, as impressive as they were, we still don't know what the average selling price was. how much of a hit did margins take in the second quarter we certainly know prices were cut mainly in china but also here in the u.s. and in europe as well and that brings up the question how much lower will we see margins go the estimate is for 19.5% for automotive gross margins we'll find out how close that estimate is to reality when they report in about to weeks back to you. >> we're going to continue to talk about tesla with more on the run so far this year, craig

irwin, and ray juan, principle t analyst. you guys, i just don't see how you can have price targets like this i guess it's a common carrommenr on the stock i checked the numbers to see if they were right. ray, you have a buy on tesla with a $320 price target craig, you have an $85 price target i mean, you guys are looking at the same thing craig, you had a hold, too when did you put that 85 on there? >> it's been on for like a year and a half, two years right now. i don't remember exactly when i put it on. >> your priorities are in a vice, man! >> not at all, man >> aren't you howling in pain? >> no, man heck no. the point today is price cuts

work there's demand for evs out there. evs are something compelling to a tranche of consumers evs are inevitable that is the punch line today but when you step back and say this 6% move is a $50 billion increase to the mark cap and you look at the market cap at just 60 billion at ford today, that puts it in context tesla has more than a hundred ev models to compete against their mainline units the same pressure this brought this down to a hundred is going to build into those models when they launch and intensify next year the evaluation is absurd but i get it it's consensus long. that why i don't have a sell rating, i have a neutral rating.

>> you have an $85 price target. that should be a sell rate nothing about what you're saying makes sense, craig i understand it could happen, but you got to acknowledge if you were a customer of roth and client of roth and they were following your advice and they watched it go from wherever it is back to where it is now they'd be saying -- that's putting a lot of faith in you being right eventually, right? >> that's not what the institutional investors and ceos are saying 70% are saying there's no way they would buy something like tesla. the guys that are long tesla are momentum players they move much faster and have much higher quality information. many of them don't fundamentally disagree with me at all about the becomend end of the year >> do you disagree >> there's massive automation.

there's no other company that can beat them at this game in terms of skill they're taking market share and market cap from all the other players. the goal is to get as many on the road to get their a.i. out there. the end game is not to be just an e.v. maker, it's multiple business lines people are betting on from insurance to self-driving and energy generation and distribution. so cars are just part one. if i was craig and looking just at the car site, i'd agree with him. but all the other things on the other end makes a difference and with a 95 profit margin to play with, they're taking market share and they're taking market cap. >> what about that, craig? that's pretty nice ray said he'd agree with you if it was just a car company. >> you forgot about the dancing

robots there's a lot of smoke and mirrors going on here. nhtsa has taken a very close look at the fatality rate with this system. yeah, that are pushing the envelope and doing something amazing for the future of automotive technology. but these fantasy about robo taxis is nothing more than a pipe dream it's far out and we have autonomous in the aviation industry, which is why fatalities are so low. we're talking many decades out >> i doubt that that's in anybody's models right now it could be a pipe dream ray, is it in your model to get to 320, are robo taxes in your model

>> no, it's not in the model but for long haul trucks on the semi, we're going to see that in the next 3three years. if you're going on i-80, you're going to see it on the long haul roots first. it's not the easy thing to do but it's going to be working in tier 2 to tier 3 cities. >> i wouldn't disagree on the trucks i think people that are going to do it are going to do it a little bit more effectively. i think you'd have multiple technologies where you lose the shortfalls of the operation. the reality is it's in the multiple, it's in the pipe dream, the froth of the stock. you can buy toyota for less than a third of this.

they make 9 million cars a year toyota has a tighter relationship with panasonic. if this was front center priority for them, they would have the identical vehicles. they're moving very cautiously and very conservatively into serving this market. i look at this and i say you got a number one unit volume maker in the world trading at a third of the market cap and you got ford at 60 billion versus the $50 billion move in tesla today. it's absurd. >> but why would you have a hold for your clients and they're going to hold it all the way back down to 85? i just don't see -- if any of it really did act on your advice when you get the $85 and they're short this stock, they've run out of money because they have no money left to cover all the margin calls they've got

>> us a hold, not a sell >> well, it should be a sell if it's going back to 85 and you're at 277 why wouldn't you tell people to get out? what's a hold at 277 when you think it's 85? i could never be an analyst because i don't know how you guys -- >> i broke this news on your dessi desk when they were going into india and launch the mini car. i think i talked about this on your desk in '20, right? throw in that -- if they can do that we'll preserving margins, that is monster for the company. india is going to be as big as china. >> don't let them hold it. tell them to sell. we got to have you guys back ray's feeling pretty good. where did you put your 320 on

at, ray? at 100 >> probably at about 150 >> all right all right, gentlemen something's got to give here one of these days. this is -- how you guys disagree thank you both, though, for being on get people all fired up. >> coming up, indiana jones couldn't even save the box office this weekend. disappointing box office returns for the fifth installment of the series and there are more challenges facing the media industry "squawk box" is come bing right back you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪

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as we enter the second half of the year, the media business is facing big challenges julia boorstin joins us. >> well, melissa, with fears of an actor strike still looming and a worse than expected debut for disney's indiana jonas sequel, all the media companies are indeed facing big challenges in the second half of this year. first, there's the question of whether the screen actors guild does end up striking after friday night the guild and studios agreed to extend their deadline to the 12th there's also the question of how long the writers strike drags out. second, the box office after "indiana jones and the dial of destiny" debuted with a $60 million box office debut, that was shy of expectations, so now there are growing concerns that it will be very tough for the summer box office to rebound to pre-pandemic levels

and third, there's the advertising market moffett nathan warning, "we are growing increasingly skeptical of improving tv advertising trends in the second half of 2023 especially for companies without sports heavy offerings." and finally, there's streaming the media giants are hoping new content bundles, along with ad-supported options, can both drive growth and also stem user churn. some of the media giants have outperformed so far this year with roku up about 57% netflix up by nearly half, and warner brothers up by about a third. the question is whether those stocks can keep it up, and then there are those stocks that are hoping to turn things around in the second half, including disney, which was up less than 3% year-to-date and paramount, which is down nearly 6%. now, every one of these companies has done some variety of cost-cutting, so we'll have to see if that's enough to boost profits or whether more cuts are

coming melissa? >> the actors go on strike, julia, is there a fall season for tv >> i think that it depends how quickly that strike is resolved. there is this assumption among many of my sources that if there is an actor strike, which there may not be -- there hasn't been an actor strike since the your 2000 they do tend to resolve things more quickly than the writers guild does if there's an actor strike, it's likely to be brief, and the writers strike is expected to be resolved by the end of august, so the studios are preparing for a fall season. we may see a little bit more reality tv, but fingers are crossed all across this town, irlissa, that things resolve faly quickly >> julia, thanks "squawk box" is coming right back

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for a little more than a half an hour from the opening bell on this holiday-shortened trading day. the s&p look to be down by about 2% let's talk markets with carol, the chief investment officer of bmo family office. great to have you with us. stellar first half, and you think that the biggest problem the market has right now is complacency. what do you mean by that >> i think, you know, it's

interesting, complacency in terms of worried about, will we see a follow-through there's still a lot of money on the sidelines, which actually is probably not undue, given how rapid the rebound has been, but it's important to keep in mind part of that rebound came as relief, if you will, coming after last year's bear market, but on the other hand, you have a lot of things that have undergirded a pretty solid economy and decent consumer spending we're still employed complacency just in terms of, there's still potential risks out there that people aren't necessarily fully absorbing. the fed has been telling us persistently higher for longer, and the data supports it, and every conversation they have is higher for longer. markets still don't seem like they fully absorbed that >> maybe they have, and this is what we got, carol i mean, you want to remain overweight -- i mean, it's probably the most telegraphed

message in the markets in terms of how many times jerome powell, how many times fed governors have come out with that message and yet here we are with the nasdaq posting its best first half in 40 years do you want to remain overweight tech >> we haven't necessarily been overweight particularly sectors. we've been balanced in our risk approach all year, and i think we're still very comfortable being in that balanced scenario. you could see volatility, you could also see -- and the volatility would be unusual relative to what we've seen recently with the vicks at such low levels, but there's potential headline risk still. the markets have done a great job absorbing it, but valuations are higher there will be attention paid to earnings as we start to up that season in the next week or two, and not necessarily just to the earnings themselves but obviously more to what companies are implying about what their back half of next year looks like the market's clearly ready to get beyond this year and focus

on when do we see the next uptick, which industries play, where do we go the markets are optimistic and future-looking by nature >> you mentioned the cash on the sidelines, which is something that we have heard many, many times from yvarious people on this network, carol. at what point do they decide to get off the sidelines? especially after you miss a huge rally in the first half, what's the inclination to go long at this point and move that cash into equities? >> well, and i think a piece of it is the fear of missing out. a lot of people came off of last year worried about a continuation of those potential tough markets, and looking at cash, saying, hey, this is a pretty comfy place to sit. so, i think i'll sit there you also had business sales that happened last year where a lot of that cash initially went into a lot of the proceeds went into cash, stayed there, and now trying to creep back in, but the headline numbers, when the markets are up 20, 25% or in the

nasdaq's case, 30%-plus in that first half, even off the depressed levels of last year, people start looking at that and wondering, am i going to miss out? >> carol, thank you. happy fourth >> thank you you as well. and we're done we'll look at the futures quickly, and it's always fireworks when you're here, i've netherlandsed. make sure you join us on -- thank you. make sure you join us on wednesday. "squawk on the street" is coming up next. we'll see who's there. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with leslie picker and mike santoli jim and carl have the morning off. we are heading into an abbreviated session ahead of the independence day holiday market closes today at 1:00. 1:00 eastern bond markets, 2:00 eastern that being said, let's give you a look at futures and how we're going to set up for an open that is still