and was never seen again. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. attempt to shore up a fragile market chinese imposing export controls on rare semiconductor

materials ramping up tensions with the united states shares of casino jump as the retailer receives two offers amid a debt restructuring as it racing to avoid default. and sainsbury sales deliver as they maintain the outlook as sales jump in the first quarter. very good morning to you warm welcome to "street signs. it is a quiet day in global market activity. united states closed for independence day here is how we are opening up today to a sluggish start to trade as a muted session on wall street stoxx 600 is trading higher by the tune of 16 basis points.

now in terms of the regional breakdown and how the markets are performing from the indices, here is the split in europe. we have keen focus on semiconductors today amid news that china is moving forward with export restrictions on minerals essential for production we will keep an eye on the s semiconductor spots. the cac 40 and dax with not a lot of movement. you have a little bit on the board for ibex 35 in spain down 35 basis points swiss market is up by .25% now from the sector perspective, i mentioned the semiconductors the technology sector is u up .70%. real estate is catching a bid this morning in europe travel and leisure is doing well

despite the disruption in the united states. on the down side, basic resources under performing fairly contained the sector down .60% construction and chemicals round out the bottom performers in the market this morning. now from the single stock perspective, one big mover toto point out. casino it has been a long standing story. a debt laden company trying to save itself essentially. the shares are bouncing as casino confirmed it received two offers to boost equity capital the first from the group that includes ep global commerce. a controlled group by daniel katinski they will present the proposals to with the details of the offers enough news in there to get the

stock moving of course, as you can see, it has been a roller coaster ride and we dipped significantly. we're bouncing this morning, but a way to go to get back to where we were a few weeks ago. in terms of bonds, here is the yields across europe we are higher across the board the italian 10-year is 4.17. we have the 10-year bund at 2.46 we will talk all things rates with our first guest in moments. first, a look at asian markets it was a mixed session for asia. nikkei 225 retreating from the 33-year high that index performed very well of late as the japanese macroeconomics picture improves. the kospi in korea not shown there. that slipped as the country's consumer price index grew at a slower rate of 2.7% in june. hang seng out performing in hong kong that market up .60%.

the australian market is what i want to zoom in on reserve bank of australia left interest rates unchanged holdin the catch rate steady. it flagged more tightening may be necessary as it assesses rising rates it surprised the market in may and june with 25-basis point hike ralph from bank of america joins me now. >> thank you. >> thank you for joining me in studio i know you can talk everything in the rates world i want to kickoff in the rba what do you make of the decision and i suppose what do you make of their outlook >> so our economists called for a pause. hats off to them on the right side of the 50/50 split you stated in terms of the

consensus. we look for a hike in august and then a skip at the end of the hiking cycle the statement affirms that it goes to show it is really, really difficult for central banks to figure out when this have done enough the rba is in the process of trying to do just that >> do you think they are close to hitting their terminal rate >> we think so if you look at the pressures, they are looking to ease and we obviously have a big mortgage reset story in australia as well that will do somef of the rba's job to pass through the higher rates into the economy yes, we do think we are closer to the end, of course. >> do you have a view on the rates curve in australia what are you advising clients? >> given what the market was pricing into the meeting, we flagged for a steepening

compared to other markets. i'm sure you are askinginversion that is a view we continue to hold we think the rate sensitivity of the australian economy, the market will be forced to price in cuts. >> let's move to the u.s. and the yield inversion there. the conundrum is what investors are thinking about is the yields curve in the u.s. signaling a recession is coming at the same time equities are resilient reaching new highs technology doing extremely well. what is the yield curve telling us in the u.s. and do you think it is appropriately priced here? >> i think the biggest thing the yield curve is telling us is people are in the wrong trades we've had a lot of longs in particular on the front end of the curve as people have positioned for that. i don't know whether positioning is the right word for recession

or hedging recession risk. one way to square that dichotomy is telling us and rates market is telling us is the rates market is the preferred way of trying to hedge your risk asset exposure be it equity or credit. people have been longer and trades have been under pressure because the fed is telling us as well that they are being forced to do more so trades are capitulated on and we reach new roared levels of inversion we would argue what the market is pricing is a very aggressive end to the inflation story we have been worrying about it is driven by the break eveeven market than depression growth. once you look under the pohood

it is a more interesting story. >> investors hedging this risk profile in more risky assets do you think it is realistic what the yield curve is pricing in with the very aggressive end to inflation >> no. depending on the time of day you look at the market, at one point, we were pricing in year on year inflation sub 2% given the strength in the labor market and we learned more about with payrolls this week, that seems ambitious. everything would have to go right for the fed to get to that point. we clearly have the concern that where the market is likely to be wrong is in the speed of that inflation correction there therefore, in the fed's ability to cut for pricing we need to learn to live with these curve inversions for a lot

longer than what investors seem to be prepared for. >> okay. that seems realistic t. it would be a change in the fed's favor. not the way it has unfolded the last few years we have the big jobs report on friday at the moment, the market believes the fed will go ahead with the 25-basis point hike in july although there is push back for 50 for the full year what do you need to see on friday to take the 25-basis point hike off the table >> something meaningfully below 200,000. our economists are looking for 250. consensus was just over 200. realistically for them not wanting to go with everything else goes on, we need to see something sub 150. >> good preview. will keep that in mind for friday we have the ecb survey of

consumer inflation expectation due out this week. why is this survey important >> the ecb is telling us they are looking at it. if i look at it, it is noisy it doesn't i have a long track record it doesn't tell us anything meaningful of inflation especially on the way down we know it told us something on the way up we know that the ecb cares about it it is one of the pieces of evidence that we will be scrutinizing to help inform the decision on whether or not that september hike that we are wondering will happen is actually going to happen if that consumer survey shows ongoing strength in inflation expectations that makes it at the margin more likely at the same time, we have a couple of inflation prints to come before the actual september

decision and i would augrgue the are more important than the survey. >> what do you think of the european rates here? do you think we're in a good spot how are you feeling about the market >> i think we are fairly priced. we have been advocating flatteners in europe because we were worried about the market under pricing ecb hawkishness and under estimating the positioning risks highlighted for the u.s. which have forced steepeners to be forced out. we are learning to live with a flatter curve. central bank is hawkish and an absolute level of policy rates delivered a bit too tight. it is difficult to make th argument that we should re-price inflation risk higher than we already have that does put the flattening buyers on the curve. i'm happy with what i see.

i think there are opportunities in conditional curve trades, but with the yield and shape of the curve, i'm comfortable >> on to japan, a different story than the rest of the world. we got a little bit of insight from governor ueda from sintra with the other central bankers he did not seem pushed around changing monetary policy there >> they clearly want to leave there in pace. we believe it makes sense with the second set adjustments in july after the ones in december. that means shortening the yield curve target from ten years to five years that would be the first step toward eventual exit it is, i guess, easier for the bank of japan to pay today than it was late last year because the market speculation of the end of the ycc and they are not

forced to support the market like back then they have the luxury of time given the story unfolding in japan, it is increasingly clear we don't need these types of unconventional policy measures. >> if they are going to change them, now is as good a time as ever. >> which is where we are coming from for july. you want to do it when speculation around it is as small as possible to avoid the market option than you would see. >> okay. so much food for thought there thank you for sharing all your views. that was rolf with bank of america. for more on whether inflation passed the peak, check out cnbc.com. saudi arabia and russia announce supply cuts doubling down on previous cuts from opec and allies state media revealed the country would extend the voluntary

output of 1 million barrels per day in august. moscow would cut output by 500,000 barrels per day in august. when we come back, we are talking chip wars. it will continue targeting galium and germanium we will discuss what those two are next

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welcome back to "street signs. interesting news from china. major owned state chinese banks cut rates by 150 basis points. the move which took place on saturday follows the cuts in banks in june and lowers yuan. china is set to impose new export restrictions on semiconductor materials. according to the commerce ministry, exporters will be unable to ship key minerals

without a permit it is the latest move in the trade standoff with the u.s. and netherlands to impose tighter controls south korea says there is a limiting impact following the chip curbs and industry minister official said the controls on galium and germanium will be offset sam baddas filed this report >> this move is seen as retaliation as efforts to limit technology getting to china just days ahead of janet yellen's visit to beijing china sizeays this is to safegud materials. they need to get permission to get information overseas and if

they don't, they could face punishment or criminal charges china makes up 95% of global output of galium which is used for computers and phones and germamium for fiber optics and solar panels china could use the dominance and ledge to push back it also pushing ahead with ambitions to gain a competitive edge in the face of the pressure it comes after the netherlands announced new restrictions on exports of chip equipment, a move seen as dealing a fresh blow to china's goals. those rules will go into effect on september 1st in singapore, i'm sam baddas, back to you. >> if you have not heard of g

galium or germanium, you are for forgiven arjun is here with me. s>> key technologies have been caught in the middle of that the u.s. has used export black lists to cut china off from technologies china has not retaliated much. we are seeing signs now. what are germanium and gallium they process zinc and boxite ore. germanium is for solar products and fiber optics, night vision gog

goggles. and gallium is a compound metal for radio frequency chips in cell phones and satellite communications they also a key compound in the manufacturing of semiconductors which go into all sorts of devices. these are very important and niche metals which countries produce? china is 60% and 80% of the two. and the compound critical to all of the other parts, few companies can do it. it is comcomplex one company in europe does it and one company in china and japan. how big a deal are these curbs from china a warning shot not a death blow. the u.s. and europe don't import huge amounts in terms of dollars of the metals.

in 2022, u.s. imported $220 million of gallium in terms of germanium, the u.s. and eu imported $190 million worth of those metals. the other point is there are other countries that produce it. likes of germany and japan and south korea. there are substitutes used for the metals in some of the technologies as well this is not the end game this is limited impact from the curbs, but clearly a warning shot from china in this escalating technology battle >> a useful way to think about about it the way the group talked about it not being a death threat, but making it more difficult for the countries that need the substances. i acknowledge restricting supply will cause prices to shoot up.

>> absolutely. what kchina has to think about i the exports is in the metals and rare earth metals with other electronics. it could be a double-edged sword. if you bring export restrictions, you may the impact your suppliers this is the way the world is going, julianna, when it comes to technology. we are seeing the decoupling or de-risking it is decoupling the supply chains are breaking up american technology is being blocked off in many areas from china, particularly in those areas that the u.s. government in particular deem is issues with the a.i. and quantum computing that relies on the technology china is traditionally quite far behind in the semiconductor space in terms of the development. these restrictions do really hurt china's ability to catch up and domestic industry to grow in many of the areas.

it is clearly trying to balance here on the one hand and making sure it doesn't cause too much disruption to the domestic disruption, but firing a warning shot saying we have means to retaliate to see restrict and unfair measures put in place by the likes of the u.s. and netherlands and other countries. >> you have to wonder the timing if it is a warning shot to the u.s. to not go ahead with tighter restrictions of advanced chips that you talked through earlier in the week with the biden administration considering tightening export controls that would prevent nvidia exporting the lower, slower processing chips to send to china last year you know, it seems like the timing would be essentially to interrupt that coming to fruition. >> certainly it is interesting to see how far the biden administration is willing to go down the supply chain. the biden administration has maintained that the export

restrictions in place is for national security reasons. they are looking at this saying this is national security reasons and we are worried going into high-end applications like a.i. and the military. how far are they going down the chip supply chain for this a lot of the lower-end chips can be used in military applications and other areas as well. clearly, when you are looking at companies like nvidia and qualcomm and other major u.s. chip makers, they are concerned at this point because china still counts for a huge part of the revenue and if there is a immediate shot off from china for a larger product portfolio, that is a concern. >> so many considerations. arjun, pleased you joint us this morning. i think we have a treat. you are talking about another story. stay tuned

let's talk politics. we have fresh lines from the russian president this morning president putin telling a virtual meeting of shanghai organization that risks of global economic chriss are on the rise russia will stand up against sanctions and provocations we plan to boost ties with the shanghai organization. russia supports to settlements to local currencies and one task is to support security nothing new there. reiterating a lot of what we heard from the russian president. interesting to hear him speak in the global forum you see him there in the live shots of president putin speaking. coming up, sainsbury's decision to keep prices low keeps sales surging. we breakdown the numbers next.

welcome back to "street

signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines australian stocks pause as key producers attempt to shore up a fragile market. china retaliates against western chip curbs against controls and system conductor materials of gallium. shares of casino jump after they receive two offers amid a debt restructuring as it races to avoid default and sainsbury's shares decline after the group maintains the full-year outlook although sales jumped in the first quarter. casino shares are rallying after the french supermarket change confirmed it received two

offers to buoost equity capital. the first from ev global commerce the other bid from 3f holding the retailer will present offers to creditors tomorrow. shares of ralley, casino's parent company are surging on the news. and sainsbury's has backed full-year guidance after sales jumped 10% in the first quarter. gr grocery volumes jumped with low prices on some products. here to breakdown the details is arabile. good morning >> good morning, julianna. these numbers are one to look out for because it is not just the numbers that have come out, but really on the back of one, the cma report fuel price issues which have been faced and perhaps price gouging in the

fuel industry and the cma report of higher food prices. from the looks at numbers, one p could tell there are changes in place. sainsbury's has made an effort to assure consumers are indeed profiting themselves from lower prices despite a high inflation rate environment in fact, the ceo, simon roberts pointed out that inflation at sainsbury's is moving at half the rate of market inflation if headline market inflation was 8.76% in may, it is 4.5% or less for sainsbury's. the interesting number within all of this has been the grocery sales figure which is up 11% according to ubs that number was anticipated to be 9%. that was on the back of higher prices on back of inflation moving up as it has with profit at 690 million for the remainder

of the year. that profit guidance remaining the same in unchanged on that front. clothing has been the one to look at here as it dropped 3.7%. that is because we have seen cooler weather in that 16 weeks to the end of june toward the latter part in june, we saw the weather becoming a little warmer. it has impacted things a little for them, but they did see a better time when it comes to june sales interestingly enough, we did speak about the ceo, who has actually come out to say that they are looking to decrease prices and ensure they pass on the drop in interest rates to consumers on the back of what has been a high inflation time as well across the board that figure will be interesting and they are saying they are looking out for the cma report

rereport really happy with transparency, but prices will not go back to where they were before although inflation is falling julianna >> arabile, that is the take away line. inflation levels will come down this year, but prices will not go back to where they were before certainly difficult news to hear for shoppers in the uk thanks, arabile, for breaking that down. there is the look at the sainsbury's share price. 1.6% this morning. it has been a strong one the grocers have all done well sainsbury's share price up 24% uk financial regulators are expected to probe top british banks over savings rates for customers are too low according to the financial times chief executives from hsbc and lloyd's have been summoned to the watch dog. they want to discuss the cash savings and transparency with customers on rates this is an interesting story

we had the chancellor meeting with the number of building societies and banks a couple of weeks ago and investors thought this might be the avenue through which they would try to make adjustments and not provide support to the housing market, but get the banks to push through higher rates with higher savings. that would be a way to support the british people and economy without fueling inflation further with more fiscal support. an interesting story to keep an eye on. over in the u.s., u.s. markets closed today for the independence day holiday we thought we would give you a look at where we stand year to date you have all three of the major indices up year to date. the winner by a wide margin is the nasdaq tech heavy index up 30% driven by a.i. optimism cnbc's steve kovach has more >> tech is the big iwinner drive

by a.i. optimism and bounce back look at apple. up 49% this year hitting that $3 trillion market cap milestone last week. meta up 138% nvidia is up in eye watering 189% those incredible runs made the stocks more expensive relative to earnings going into the back half of the year take a look at the increase in forward pe ratios from the names from the beginning of the year through friday's close amazon from 51 to 74 microsoft from 24 to 32. earnings season starting in a couple of weeks putting pressure on the names to deliver. others to look forward to is apple with fall in demand for products iphone 15 in the fall will have to wow people. microsoft is still trying to close the $69 billion deal to buy activision, but investors are focused on a.i

expect more product announcements through the year alphabet is looking to make money off a.i. tools like google docs and meta, zuckerberg's year of efficiency is appeases investors so far, but needs to show better monetization on reels we are waiting to hear more on a.i. chip exports to china and amazon is trying to stay in the conversation with the market leadership in cloud. not much tangible from amazon. prime day this summer will be a good test of consumer demand ahead of the holidays. for cnbc business news, i'm steve kovach let's get a check on european equity.

we are off to a mauted start cac 40 is up marginally. the smi out performing up .30% spanish market under performing. from an fx perspective, you have sterling holding steady against the dollar 126.94 dollar and swiss franc is weaker euro is on the back foot at 108.98 i have our investor joining me on set great to see you again to my mind, the biggest question right now for markets and investors who look at a wide range of as sets is why would you buy the s&p 500 when it trades at 22 times earnings? it doesn't seem like there is much recession priced in when you can get 5% or 6% in treasury

markets relatively risk free what is your take? >> i think it is interesting concept and decision to make we do believe that it is a more diversified portfolio to inn corporate equities and fixed income you have the risk-on of the equity exposure with the u.s. or specifically consumer discretionary sectors as well as international markets. on the fixed income, a barbell with emerging market debt. we like the u.s. income, but we don't find credit that attractive we don't think you are getting compensated for the recessionary risk you sedtate stated by holdo high yield on the equity side, more international equity rather than u.s. because of the reasons we mentioned. within the u.s., communication and consumer discretionary.

>> you do like tech still in the u.s. >> we turned positive in february we felt that at the time the probability of recession was far too high we felt that the fed was not going to continue with its tightening projection. we became more constructive given the price in the market. that was in february of we have been holding on to that view since february. >> you hear from bullish investors in tech with upside in both directions. if the fed is close to the end of the tightening cycle, that is a positive that is a headwind from eval evaluation makes it difficult to hold on to the long-term stocks if we see a recession come because the fed pushes us there, then they have growth coming from a.i. and all of the structure trends it feels like the trade could be insulated, yet, they are frothy. >> they are.

that's why i think it is important to be aware in terms of the volatility in terms of the direction we have seen already with the valuations. the position in the market has not been there i think a fantastic example is simmons in japan we have been positive in the nikkei and maintain the positive outlook although the nikkei has been making multi-decade highs. >> fantastic >> we done feel for the investors are in there yet and domestic investors are not in there. if you look at fundamentals which all score positively there is a room for risk-on if you like sentiment on market although hedged with some exposure in the u.s. treasuries. >> the japanese call is a fascinating one. well done on the trade 33-year high a fresh one in the nikkei 225. what is the catalyst for more

investment into the japanese market >> i think fascinating question. i think i will turn it around. what is the big risk of capping the move and that would be the bank of japan. part of that decision that we have on the position we held is the view that the bank of japan is not going to do something which spooks the yields moving higher which does not bring the dollar/yen lower and impacting the septembntiment and consumer demand we believe the boj will not do anything radical because we feel the pressures are coming off they need some flinflation. the problem is they need deflation. we are still holding on to the view with the sentiment likely to continue to move on that top side >> i see you are also positive on chinese equities which is fascinating. not everybody is, obviously,

just this morning we are seeing ann escalation with the u.s. an china can the restrictions from the chinese side on the key material exports for semiconductors what gives you confidence to invest in the chinese market >> i think it is interesting, again, another significant point. first of all, in terms of the broader economic environment, we feel and i think the market was whip sawed we started becoming positive on china from q4 of last year the market was doom and gloom in q4 last year and q1, it was reopening. it was a whipsaw we have maintained our positive outlook because we feel the policymakers will provide the stimulus to ensure the economic growth starts coming through, but also more importantly and this is where the geopolitical line comes in and i think the chinese have reached out to eu and europe with premier li going

out to fix the relations and blinken's visit to china who clarified the point. u.s. is not interested in independent taiwan we see the political factors improving despite tensions here and there. that should provide support to the economic growth outlook. >> it felt like the relationship was moving in a positive direction. especially after blinken met xi jinping which was not a given. you wake up and come to stories like today and last week with the biden administration considering tightening export controls of more advanced chips. again, it seems hard to get the confidence that is the direction of travel. >> i think there is a marginal difference and that sort of started from last october and the hawkish tone from the u.s. point of view on china if the focus is hawkish on china, that's fine it is the uber super hawkish

that could bifurcate the global economy. i believe being hawkish is fine. we will find ways around it and economic growth will continue. not super hawkish. >> the extreme hawkishness let's wrap up on the uk. looking back at h1, assets did struggle to keepperformers the uk inflation problem is concerning, but equity valuations and you can argue they are attractive. certainly relative to the u.s. i was taught when i was in equity research, valuation is not a reason to buy a stock. not alone. do you think there is a catalyst to propel uk stocks higher >> i think that first of all, it is important to mention that we turn positive on starting last september.

1 107.70 versus the dollar we felt the uk is not an emerging economy we maintained that positive view on sterling since. we have also sense then turned positive in the uk ftse 100 we don't think the midcaps are appropriate. large caps can add value here with the valuations and market price behavior with and politics more stable. we do believe at the end of the day, the bank of england will have to do whatever is necessary to tighten policy and bring inflation under control. i believe the bank of england a c couple of years ago was complacent and sending wrong messages and talking down inflation risk and creating problems for themselves which are now faced and dealt with >> now trying to ramp up the fight of inflation where do you see sterling going from here? how much is left in the trade? >> it is continuing to evolve. we don't have a particular

target in mind so far, it has been continued to do well and among the top currencies alongside the euro and the canadian dollar on the majors in the emerging markets, we have been big fans of the latin american currencies which are due to the prudence of the bank policies. >> well done riding the british pound from 107 to 127. founder and cio of abp invests. coming up on the show, meta takes on twitter with the launch of the micro blogging app threads. what this means for the online conversations after this break

welcome back to "street signs. well, millions of americans took to the skies this weekend for the fourth of july holiday the transportation industry

screened 2.9 million passengers. some passengers were stranded with the weather delays. airline stocks had the best year in two months in june seeing gains amid surge in passenger demand air traffic control could be overpowered this morning prepare for a challenging travel season the daily flight set to exceed pre-pandemic levels. the transportation agency secretary says he doesn't expect the same level of chaos last year >> there will be disruption this summer, particularly in europe with air traffic control up 40% to date with the issueses in france a lot of the airlines settle for that and have improved the crew ratios and spare aircraft and there's more staff rolled out in

the airports with ground handling and in the airlines i'm expecting disruption, but not at the level of last year. >> now in the tech space -- now in the tech space, byd says it received 20,000 pre-order for it's new electric suv. the chinese firm's closest c competitor to the model y. byd says the n7 is due to ship in the next two weeks. meta says it will launch its own micro blogging app called threads to take on twitter the platform is described as a tech space app and will launch this week. the announcement comes after elon musk announced a temporary limit on the number of posts users can view and changes to the tweet deck platform sparking

fierce criticism as promised, arjun has returned to the desk and he is covering it all for us. arj, how is the platform for meta poised to compare to twitter? >> from what we have seen, it looks similar to twitter it has a similar thread kind of platform when you reply to tweets or threads, i suppose it is a similar look it looks to be free as well. the key here is the timing, really, in all of this there's been a lot of things bubbling under the surface with twitter with user reaction removing the blue checkmarks and the subscription service then, of course, twitter limiting the number of tweets people can see in the last few days as well musk said this was due to data scraping this is annoyed a lot of users

of tusers. then the tweet deck becoming a paid service at the risk here of alienating users, meta has seen the discontent and felt this is the right time to release the thread platform we have seen interest from other rival twitter products bluesky is founded by twitter's founder jack dorsey. that saw record traffic this weekend after mr. musk imposed those restrictions on the amount of tweets. and another rival to twitter as well those are seeing big traffic spikes and interest. clearly the right time for meta to come into the product the key is how do you feel about yet another social media and one run by meta? that is the question that needs to be answered >> i feel we have been in the scenario before with meta specifically they have a history of essentially taking a model and

creates something similar for their plat p fplatform they have a track record for something like this. >> they have a big ecosystem of products main facebook and instagram and whatsapp and facebook messenger. sometimes you sign up through the linkage. they have a big platform and advantage and the issue is how people engage with the threads when it comes to the market. >> thank you for the break down great to have you on two times today. it is independence day we don't have wex for you. stay with cnbc that is it for me. i'm julianna tatelbaum this has been "street signs.

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