i've been robbed of those conversations. you know? i've been robbed of that friendship. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ >> shares in troubled supermarket group casino and its holding company rally gives details of rival bids ahead of a big creditor meeting today. china's post-covid recovery

stalls further as the service industry expands at five months. and the ief secretary-general tells cnbc the saudi cuts could move prices >> if the cuts happen with exports as was announced, it should be easily tracked, but the market treated it with skepticism, but i think over time as we see the cuts are in place, i think that will definitely have an impact. welcome to "street signs." we're going to kick off the show with the final pmis for the month. it's come in at 59.9, and

critically it now stands in contraction territory. the services component has come in at 52 versus a flash estimate of 52.4, so services has disappointed, but the real pullback downturn clearly in the manufacturing space. now, in terms of the detail here, all major euro countries have lost momentum it was companied by a weaker rise in business, lower price increases, and it declined in business expectations. there was one bright spot. pricing pressures eased significantly in june. composite output prices index fell to the lowest level since march 2021 so some significant progress in terms of f the easing of price pressures, but in terms of activity, we are seeing a contraction in the month of june slipping into contraction territory at the composite level, so that is certainly

notable. we're holding steady versus the dollar not a huge amount of reaction. clearly this is one indicator among many in terms of the data. now, in terms of equity market action this morning, here's the picture we're off to a weak start after a weak handover from asia. overnight we got some fairly downbeat data out of china the kai shan services is well below the expectations of 56.2 it's the weakest now we're seeing that negativity spill into the european trading as well. the pullback is being felt unanimously. you've got the ftse 100 down 0.6, similar for the cac 40. the swiss market holding up

slightly better. the defensive market down 0.3% from a sector perspective, we're also seeing broad-based losses, every sector trading in the red. the worst is technology. we're down more than 1%. perhaps the escalation and tensions between china and the u.s. on the chip front weighing in we're seeing a pullback in resources and the auto sector is essentially flat on the session. one stock we've been following closely this week is the casino. the shares are plunging nearly 30% lower. rally also taking a hit. casino saying it will accelerate the timing of the proposals after it revealed competing bids from three now, casino, which is on the

verge of bankruptcy amid heavy debt said in rallye will know longer hold. we take a look at the boards across the global equity this morning. it's a big week for macro insights the treasury yield is holding its steepest version since the 1980s. there's been another hike and they're looking ahead to the payrolls report to see if they'll have to tighten things further. the labory bore market has

pencilled in jobs. we'll hear from christine lagarde and katherineman, due to speak on friday. what an agenda in the days ahead. thankfully paul donovan has agreed to join us. i'm an avid reader of your daily updates. also food for thought and fascinating takes of what's going on it feels like for the last year or so the investment community has been calling, expect a u.s. recession. it just hasn't arrived yet the u.s. has been a lot more resilient. why is that? >> i think one of the key things is the middle income families who are actually critical to the consumer story are fairing a bit better they're slowing down, absolutely so one of the things is your unemployment remains low so there's no sense of fear of job loss

fear of job loss would tend to reduce consumption and reduce savings. we don't have that second, inflation for headline inflation numbers. inflation is actually lower for middle income families it's quite a lot lower that's because headline inflation includes this fictional housing measure which no one actually pays if you own your own home, the cost of living isn't rising as is suggested you've got a little more spending firepower we're also seeing a change in consumer behavior. there's a resilience of demand, this sort of fanatical desire to go on holiday, for example, means we're going to carry on spending almost regardless some of that combination is offering a degree of support. absolutely we're still in a slowdown clearly we're still in a slowdown, but it's not as bad as a superficial analysis would

give you an impression. >> is it coming from savings still in place or families who are more resilient starting to dip into credit cards to rack up spending >> if we look at the pulse sur survey that comes out from the u.s. government, it's suggesting lower income groups are dependent on the credit card want's happening with middle income groups is the amount of savings tucked away in the bank has come down a bit. instead what has happened is the monthly savings rate, that's collapsed. so they're doing is cutting back on the monthly savings in order to top off the disastrously real wage growth. >> do you think a recession is coming >> i think -- economists always

get unhappy with the word "recession." could we have a negative growth? absolutely of course, we could. does it mean that much probably not do i see an enormous rise in unemployment or the u.s. economy? no, i don't. i don't think these terribly likely accidents can happen one of the problems we've got is data quality has become a lot poorer in recent months and years, and so the risk of a policy era has increased because we're not factoring what's going on. >> it sounds like you thought the messaging out of sin tra was important. you had not only jerome powell and christine lagarde reiterating their commitment it sounds like rate hikes are

likely s is it on the right approach? >> it ice in freefall. we're hearing this hawkish rhetoric it presupposes everything we have to say. economists do, but i'm not sure real people in the real world go out and pay attention to christine lagarde. actually -- i mean, the thing is we're now seeing a lot of really weak inflation numbers coming through. we're getting this return to a lower inflation environment with a more or less slightly below stable activity. so we're going to get that out of the eurozone today, and it's expec expected to go on today. when you look at it, anybody who thinks inflation is strictly, pull up a chart. it is astonishing. the inflation rate will have

fallen 45 percentage points in less than a year i mean it's an astounding collapse durable goods prices, it's completely disappeared around the world. complete collapse. we are seeing inflation coming down and powell saying, oh, it's going to get two years to get core inflation to 2% it's not parts already have lower than 2% large parts have below 3.5%. we're already seeing the disinflation forces at work. >> why do you think he's sending the hawkish message? is it an attempt to prevent investors from getting too excited about rate cuts any time soon. >> if i were to be cynical, it would be that powell is not an economist. i think the political climate,

we do have to recognize. the political climate is one where it's become a highly politicized issue. so any hint on inflation is problematic. the fed was saying in 2020 it's transitory inflation that's actually right. the inflation in 2020 has gone into deflation today so unfortunately we've had two independent waves of inflation since then so superficially again the fed looks like it got it wrong, so it can't afford that to be a wave. >> that's an interesting point there's a way to look back and say they were right about the inflation we had at the time thankfully, paul, we've got you for another conversation he's going to be with us for another conversation in a few minutes. knew market veteran ed yardeni says we've shifted from

a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. coming up on the program, the ecb delivers "i"s its lates readings we'll dig into the numbers and talk with paul after this break. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back to "street signs. the financial authority has looked at whether the odie person was fit to work a number have cut ties with odey over being accused of assault. the fca has been investigating for two years. odey denies any wrongdoing. eurozone consumer cease a lower inflation. a majority of respondents extent prices to grow by 3.9%over the next 12 months

that's down from 4.1% in april and 5% back in march here's a picture of european bond yields. we're lower across the board we're seeing an equities risk-of risk-off session to start out the trading day. >> i'm very happy that paul donovan is still with me let's shift our attention to europe now what'sure take on how the inflation picture is -- how the inflation picture is unfolding in europe? >> we've got quite an interesting pattern. we have a divergent experience in the eurozone. the divergence of european inflation is less. there's as big a difference in europe as in theup we're in a disinflationary environment and so countries like spain, inflation is below 2%, which shows it can be done

it shows that actually the prices are sticky. we're stuck at 3%, 3.5%. actually, no spain's handled it why not other countries. what we've been seeing over the last two to three months is the profit margin expansion at a retail level remember, it's not across the entire company that comes right at the end of the consumer level. spain has been attacking profit-led inflation for some time and they've succeeded with the inflation rate, but then we're seeing countries like france where le maire has been critical of food price inflation saying this has got to come down or else. we're starting to see this work through the system i think we will be moving toward a 2.5%, 3% inflation by the end of this year without too much effort spain's already there after all. it shows again this can be

relatively easily achieved. >> it's an interesting point that came to light the ceo said inflation may have peaked, but prices are not going to come down to where they were before, which is precisely what you're saying. >> we have another issue, a very specific issue in the uk, which is, again, it sounds like a technical problem, but this is making quite a difference to uk inflation because what has happened is soup markets have introduced a two-tier structure. if you're one of the elite with a loyalty card, you get a substantial decrease others don't take into account the price discount because it's only a select group. most of the son supers are probably paying the reduced price, but the head cpi is reporting food inflation of over 18%. the reality is it's probably

11%, 12% in the uk still very high, of course, but it's still a lot lower the problem is the uk and others are being applied to a select group, not across the board. so unless that changes, the headline numbers are going to be sticky but the uk consumer will have a bit better spending firepower, because they're getting discounts. >> fascinating detail. you've highlighted a few times now the problem with the data, and this is the data that central bankers are no doubt using. does this put the bank of england at risk of overtightening if they're relying on the headlines >> it's a problem. what you're going to get on this, consumers have a bit more firepower than the headline suggests, but the bank of england is looking at the headline number. if the supermarkets carry on with this two-tier system and

pricing structure, you're not going to see headline inflation coming down quickly as it has been doing in continental europe it's very interesting that it came in in april in the uk, and that's when it started diverging from the rest of europe. it's very influential as an issue. >> it's so interesting it would suggest it's not in as bad a place relative to the eurozone as we are assuming. >> no, exactly if you look again, to take food as an example where this structure has come in. the uk has one of the heist rates in the continental europe. but when you look at it,ite goets the lowest rate of foods but that's been a challenge for the bank of england because, of course, their mandates is head line consumer inflation, which does not recognize the existence of the card and pricing and that

then create this complication. sticking with the uk, the other major concern for the mainstream audience, not necessarily the bank of england, is the mortgage market what do you think is the best approach for the government here there are lots of things on the table when it comes to government intervention when they can try to support households and the economy what's the right move? >> it's something that's quite complicated from a political, social, and economic point of view because something like 70% of mortgage debt is owed by the top 30% of income. so anything you do to help mortgage holders is going to disproportionately benefit higher income groups but it's affecting lower income groups because the food prices and energy prices hit lower and disproportionately hard. you run the risk who are going to get that. the other thing, of course, is

the majority of homeowners do not have that. it's a function of the aging society. lots and lots of people have paid off their mortgages and, again, because a lot of people are locked inning maybe about 50. 0.2% are experiencing that every movement the increase is big and a shock to a lot of people, but we have to keep our senses on this in the economic sense you look at do you help disproportionately well off people when you're not providing help to lower income people. and if you are providing help, you're further blunting the bank of england's ability to influence the demand and the economy. if the government, for example, were to say we're going to have lower public pay settlements but we're going to help the top 30% with mortgage costs, politically, idon't think the reaction to that is going to be great. >> the other solution or the one that seems most palatable but

perhaps too peripheral is to try to get the banks to push through higher rates and savings and raise deposit rates. is that going to make a difference >> that's less likely to make a difference because it's going to favor the higher income groups and favor older people because that's the nature of savings now, yes, they get a better investment income, and i'm sure my father will be rushing off to book another cruise and whoosh away my i hair tans, but it doesn't necessarily help stabilize the spending because they're not necessarily the k key margin spend sneer thanks so much for the conversation. we ooh have more later in the program. ta's paul donovan, ubs global

wealth management. nato has gotten stoelten beagle to stay on for another year stoltenberg's term was to end in september, having been in the role since 2014. several high-profile european names including pedro sanchez, friedrichsen and others have stayed on. but members have convinced them to keep him in position. ukrainian president zelenskyy warns of russia's attack on the zaporizhzhia power plant. they've placed explosiving on the building site. meanwhile the counteroffensive against russian troops has been particularly fruit nfl recent days it comes ascii armed forces

rejected concerns over how things are unfolding, reporting that russia has lost half of its combat capability in ukraine zelenskyiy congratulated the u.. on the fourth of july. >> i congratulate you on your independence they pass it by expanding its limits the limits of how each person's life, each community and country are protected and advance it by growing hope, hope for others on earth they, too, will be able to become free and their freedom will become a legacy for their children and grandchildren. coming up on the program, supply scramble. tech companies rush to assembly

component as china plays in the chip wars. we'll explain what it means and the standoff after this.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum, and these are your headlines european equities struggle as business contracts for the first time we have fed minutes in focus shares in troubles supermarket group casino and rallye renew their bid china's covid recovery stalls further. brent prices recoup earlier losses ahead of today's opec seminar while the ief secretary general tells cnbc saudi and

output cuts could ultimately move prices. >> it should be more easily tracked and verified by secondary forces, but the market treated it with skepticism, i think. i think over time as the cuts are in place, i think that will definitely have an impact. we've good the uk june final pmis crossing the wires. the final composite has come in at 52.8. the services pmi also in line with the initial estimate at 53.7 so stronger than what we heard out of the eurozone earlier this morning, but business momentum still slowing in june relative to where we were a month ago despite falling inflation. the director weighing in saying services in the uk showed new

signs of fragility as they look at the economic outbook took their toll on customer demand. widespread increases in salary praises looked at fuel and energy prices. they raised prices by the second amount in august 2021. businesses increased staff numbers by the most since september 2022, using a greater availability of workers to tackle backlogs it's built up. interesting color on what's happening on the labor front but in terms of where we have traveled, the direction of travel, yes, we're still in growth territory, but growth has slowed sharply despite businesses now seeing lower inflation. all of this, of course, as higher interest rates weigh on demand in the country. now, you can see the gilt curve right there. we're seeing yields move high ther morning as for equity markets, here's

how we stand we're still red across the board following the week handover from asia where we have the kpmi out of asia. it shows a downpete surprise 53.9, the weakest since january. in terms of fx markets, we've got the euro holding pretty much enchanged versus the greenback you've got all three of the majors pointing to a weaker start. china services activity softened in the month of june the kieshen services pmi came in slower as weakened demand

weighed in on the sector countries are working to look at it after china moved to put curbs on exports of two key tears yesterday. it comes ahead of a state visit by treasury secretary janet yellen tomorrow since ties between the top two economies deteriorated early lore this year. an editorial says the country would not be passively squeezed out of the global chip supply chain it describes export controls of some products as a prac tick tall way to tell u.s. allies that it's a miscalculation a research fellow at bruegel

joins me now thank you for joining me this morning. you know, the u.s. has been talking tough on china for years now, not just president biden but under the trump administration as well they've been talking about reducing the reliance on china and reducing its relationship in general but how has the actual trade level between the two countries evolved over the last year have we seen much of a reduction in trade >> first of all, thank you very much for having me i think there was a lot of talk about decoupling, but we haven't seen that yet in the numbers it's difficult for them and for us here. china still grows significantly faster than many advanced

economist and the question is will it be able to keep up this pace at which point with all the restrictions we see, will it impead the relationship between u.s. and china. >> many china experts have called the latest move out of china to move to restrict the exported metal as a critical warning. not a death shot or major blow but a warning shot to the u.s. and other major economist. if it is a warning shot and we do see the situation escalate from here, what might china target next in the chip war? >> so in the chip war itself, it is a bit difficult for china to enact this expert control. so far they've only announced export controls. we don't know how it intends to use them the problem is it is in many

ways it would impose that. it would cut itself off to some extent of the supply so the question is on the one hand to what exteblt istent is t sick clicking. the other question is how it intended to use the same type of controls on areas where it might be less harmful to itself and the key parts here, for instance, materials for building batteries could go away where a lot of them are refined in china itself here the challenge is much bigger most of them are finding this is happening in china and it will be difficult in the short term to diversify however, imposing this restriction means there are a lot of signals to diversify in the long term and given that we have a lot more supplies, we'll see a lot more going forward. >> that's such a good insight that if we see an escalation,

it's not necessarily going to be in the chip supply agency but they have more leverage in the united states, which iss now necessarily the case with chips specifically there's been a commitment by g7 to derisk the relationship with china. not decouple but deriff frk chynna is that realistic given the interconnectedness of china with so many companies? it's one thing for governments to say they want this to happen. but at a corporate level, a lot of big companies are deeply, deeply entrenched in china. >> i think at the micro level, if you want, the credit exposure that we skusd, first, it's very difficult. because there are so many opportunities, there are so many businesses already invested and supply chains are deeply interlinked, so making this decoupling across the board is probably unfeasible. houvg they are specific pain

points at specific value chains which could be exploited which could create a problem for china itself the focus is materiels where china has the dominant market, dominant position, that could hurt the u.s., for instance without hurting itself too much because many of these exports are quite low in value so the strategy focuses more on these types of opportunities and activities which could be exploited politically rather than on the micro risk which is broader, which might not be feasible at least in the short term. >> what is your read on the federal state of the chinese economy right now. there's a lot of speculation given the slowing growth mom momentum, we could see more policy put forth what's your take >> right now it face as number of headwinds they're a long headwind that are

starting to bite the chinese economy. the growth, so far, was heavily invested into capital and construction we've seen the best of real estate bubbles that really put pressure on the chinese economy. so there are these long-term struggles that probably means the chinese economy will grow slower than it did in the last decades. also there we see a number of headwinds as you displayed on your numbers also here it's not super clear how china can resolve them especially when you have the tensions and uncertainties around the opportunities and the risk for export restrictions for companies, and it's not entirely clear if fiscal stimulants by itself can make funner the problems that are there right now. >> what is the outlook for the

country. they've built key relationships with leaders and countries around the world. >> the beltan road plan was aimed at a number of different things it was a chance to sideline with the chinese against america, but there was also basically -- part of the strategy was to create markets for chinese industries that has grown in china but has run out of steechlt am the trouble the chinese face is two-fold the one thing itself, it might not be able to support the project in the same way given the economic headwinds but many of these projects have become white elephants and the

government is headley supported have faced a problem what we see right now, some governments that were quite close to the chinese government in the first place were the most likely to take beltan road funding, but they have trouble financing. the struggle is on the one hand how can they not repeat the same mistakes and how we can help the country's in-depth stress where they can cooperate with the initiative out there it's a struggle because of the capacity of the contracts, and so far china has refused, at least from what we've seen publicly. >> that's a very, very interesting point. in italy we've been focused on georgia meloni's initiative.

what happens with taiwan at the center of not only the chip war but also from a national security perspective what happens with the relationship between china and taiwan do you see taiwan coming into the fold as a bargaining chip if the chip wars as we like to call them in the medial world progress from here >> so taiwan is important for at least two or three reasons the two economic ones, on the one end, it's incredibly important to the chip supply chain and the second one is there's a focal point and is kind of where the conflict evolves right now. that's such a symbol of china's ambition to become a dominant power in east asia and the u.s. trying to push back against that the problem is if there were something happens around taiwan, you would have a conflict

between two superpowers. they're relying on the supply. there's so much attempts by some extent to diversify away from taiwan it it's not really an interest tore hold these in their hands and tee side where to invest the risk is what would happen if this de-escalates? it cannot be in any win's interest we've seen it and how disruptive it was to all kinds of centers and it gives a small taste of it this would cause massive reissues so i think here really we have to manage somehow to avoid some conflict. >> thank you for sharing your

views with us great. to speak with us this morning. opec chiefs and industry leaders are meeting in vienna, is which is where dan joins us from now good morning. >> good morning. i'm very pleased to say bob mcnally joins us so good to see you in australia. great to see you. >> great to be here. >> in the last 24 hours we've seen some pretty significant shifts not only the saudi extension but the russians what's going on with the elusive so-called tightening >> dan, it's a remarkable time in the oil markets i can't think of a time where you would see hunl deficits. the sow days, russians, opec plus, they're determined to put

the deficits into the market the market is in an "i'll believe it when i see it" mode if that happens, food prices will rip later this year we'll have to see the summer of truth to see the track data, see the inventories, we're starting to see some differences. 're starting to see incipient signs of it, but it's not done i would bet the pasture, but not the farm on it we see brent roofing into the 90s by the end of the year. >> what's the risk the concern has been what's going on with china, with higher rates globally, what's going on with this general macro malaise. what's trending? >> the risk is repeat or the ghosts of 2008 in other words, what the financial markets are telling

us, contrary to the data we can see t global market is about to weaken appreciably, strongly, due to tightening of credit conditions and macro economic concerns if that's true, we'll see prices increase around the level rather than the spike we see later this year it's there in the tightening conditions there in the federal reserve, which looks like they're going to increase more ecb is raising rates uk is raising risks. that's the risk. that's the land mine we're stepping on here similar to 2008. when you had global demands collapse by almost 3 barrels a day. >> it's going to be on production they say it's going to be on exports. but where we'll ultimately leave production in the second half. >> there's a bit of ambiguity. normally we think about quotas

and signs to output. however, the message from opec's decision and russia's decision is to cut exports. they want to do that because they want the market to see it the tanker trackers, they're going to see it right away what opec plus is expecting is that russia's supply to market, exports are going to fall for all of us to see by half a million barrels a day. if they do, that we'll see whether the production is cut or number we'll have to wait to see. >> where does policy go from here as well are we likely to see these cuts and curves extended, the involuntary cuts being extended over the next two months or is this just a lollipop >> not only would saudi arabia extend the cut by one more month, but we assume in this

best case, they'll go to september as well. think as in 2021, they put a billion barrels in the month as a brim and then prices started rising we assume the saudis would extend one more month to make sure the deficits appear and if they don't, put a floor under the prices here. >> where is the uae right now? >> i think the uae is quite content. they got in the most recent decision higher quota. they want to close the gap between their very high production capacity and their quota, and they got a down payment on that in the recent april 2nd decision, and i think they will expect and get a further closing of that gap. so in my view the uae is quite content in playing ball with opec plus here. >> while in europe, i want to ask you about the european

energy outlook as well what's your view on how we're going to see supply firming up and is the energy crisis that shaped markets through 2022 larmly the result? >> assume weg don't have an accident, we may be putting uk war behind us, covid behind us, but we're in the anotherhills of a boom cycle we entered it in late 2021 demand, particularly in transportation, is going to surprise to the upside we're going to see -- before we talk about the opec plus cuts, they'll not keep up. europe and the rest, our consumers are in for a bit of a rough ride as we develop this boom cycle we expect over the coming years >> can you expant on that? what do you mean >> so the iron law of economics says you can't consume what you're unable to produce or

draw we're entering a multi-year boom cycle where demand for oil globally is going to be above a million barrels a day, not less. meanwhile, net supply is well below a million. we've had seven years of collapsed investment, so this demand is going to exceed supply the price will enforce the iron law of economics you can't produce what you can't get in inventory that's going to be tough for importing countries and consumers around the world in the coming years >> absolutely fascinating. we're out of time unfortunately. butthanks so much for the conversation today. >> thank you, dan. >> dan, thank you so much for your coverage out of vienna this morning. >> coming p on street signs, political pressure piles up ahead of a meeting with a key regulator today. we'll have more after the break.

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welcome back average rates for a five-year fixed mortgage has topped 6%,

numbers not seen since last november's mini budget fallout it hit 6% around 2 weeks ago british finance minister jeremy hunt has tweeted ahead of the meeting on thursday with major banks. the major conduct authority has summoned leaders to discuss how they're passing on interest rate rises to consumers arabile is joining me with how the government is responding to higher interest rates and how they can protect the economy. >> there's been a high amount of criticism to the banks, particularly in the uk the question has really been how much of a passing on to consumers when it comes to increasing rates the bank of england has seen rates climb to 57 at present if we take a look at the numbers as of the 8th of june, however,

which is just before the latest interest rate hike, the average was 4.5% the gap was really stark the government was saying that needs to be lower to support consumers. perhaps they'll save more, which means to limit inflation and in that way kind of help the economy overall. hsbc has replied and said they've increased their savings rates a dozen times since 2022 so that report is going to be very interesting to look at. >> absolutely. challenging tomb for the uk government and the bank of england. unfortunately that's all we have time for today anyou for watching i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next.

so that report is going to be

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it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here's your five after five we begin with pressure trading resumption after a brief holiday session and where the fed today can point to more panel payne to come. growing concerns out of china adding to investor excite. another key data economic point coming in weaker than expected new tensions between washington and beijing brooding as treasury secretary janet yellen prepare