get permission before providing services to china. a federal judge ordering government officials to limit contact with social media companies in response to a first amendment case about releasing posted on online platforms they may have to release a new one. meta launching a so-called twitter killer app more instagram threads expected to debut tomorrow. that would be july 6th because today it's july 5th. it's a wednesday "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and courtney

reagan who's hanging out with us all day. becky is off. >> three hours of fun. >> it's going to fly by. it's going to feel like three minutes. >> you can't appeal the sentence you're here. >> not at this point. >> let's show you the equity futures on this tuesday morning. here we are. 154 points down on the dow. the s&p 500 down the nasdaq off close to 100 points, about 98 points. let's show you treasury yields here's where things stand right about now. 10-year, 1.39. the biden administration is reportedly preparing to restrict chinese companies access to u.s. cloud computing services according to "the wall street journal," the new rule if adopted would likely require u.s. companies like microsoft and amazon to seek government permission before working with

some chinese customers the government is expected the announce the new policy in a few weeks this comes one day after china put limits on exports. a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction he ruled that the biden administration's officials, the policing of social media posts likely violated the first amendment, and the ruling bars white house officials and multiple federal agencies from contacting the companies with oppressive views and over projected speech this was brought by republican attorneys general in louisiana that accuses the biden administration of pressuring the platforms to scrub away disfavored views about covid, health policies, the origins of pandemic, and also the hunt err

biden laptop story if you were wondering, yeah, that's mentioned, election security and other divisive topics, they've argued on the government's actions saying they took necessary actions to deal with the pandemic and election interference the doj is expected to appeal the injunction this is a far cry from what was the -- remember, they had a -- truth -- orwellian truth thing they had an individual that was going to run the thing and that all fell by the wayside. and this is sort of a -- i guess this is part two of that whole effort kind of interesting though some people like censorship. it's kind of switched. it used to be an a kco sen

shoreship. >> i don't get it though. >> you do want -- i think it was bad if you said that you thought it was lab generated, that that had to be banned that was bad. >> no, no, no. this is my view. free market is twitter, instagram, facebook can say whatever they want f they so choose, right? >> right. >> and they should be able to receive emails and text messages from anybody, including people at the white house, whether it's the trump administration sending those emails. >> are you sure. >> or whether it's the biden administration or whomever it is and then it's up to those -- those companies to dough side to comply or not or what have you whether there's legal coercion, that's problematic the idea there can't be communication on certain topics from anybody inside the administration -- this is apolitical -- makes no sense to

me to me it's the first amendments issue on the other side which is everybody should have some format of first amendment. >> to be able to reach out to the companies. >> reach out to whoever they want the companies, there's not a requirement we can talk about. >> that's what i mean. >> about whether there's supposed to be a town square or not. but the idea that you can't actually make a phone call is crazy to me, and i would imagine -- sorry, we even got a bug in here i don't know how it would be upheld it just seemed tough. >> you've got all that protection you're not going to get in trouble if you do it if you do want a true downsquare airing of all sides, you want to you saw when it was abused when it was abused, it was bad one side -- they're all gone from twitter now they think the other side is in

control. there was a time when twitter was definitely highlighting much more veracity, one side than the other. it wasn't fair it wasn't bad. you can't be the babylon be e an be a reporter. >> these are companies that can choose to write, say, do, publish what they want that is the whole point. >> the point is you're okay if the biden administration calls and says don't print that? >> i'm okay 100% as long as there's not -- this idea of coercion, this idea i'm going to scratch your back for something on the other side, that's what gets much more complicated. >> i think that, to me, i don't want to be given news that's filtered through whoever's in power at that time. >> i'm saying whoever's in power, i believe, has the right to say or do whatever they want.

>> they can, but can they say don't do it? can they say, do not print that there's anything about lab originations >> hang on go back and look the white house called up "the new york times" when the pentagon papers happened and said, please, don't print that >> you weren't even alive then. >> i was not but the point is "the new york times" wrote the pentagon paymenters. >> those were the good old days. now it's the opposite. >> there was a line of communication. there are times tall time. >> and they did it anyway. >> they did it anyway. >> by the way, i've been called by those in power, all kinds of people trying to push and cajole and say, please don't say this, don't say this, whatever it is they're not supposed to be able to do it hopefully it's on me and you

anyone else. >> maybe if it was a different administration -- >> honestly, i don't. >> i don't believe you if the trump administration was -- >> the trump administration was just as employee livic. >> it's part of what they do it's our job to make those decisions. >> a lot of times our job -- it's over here now our job is not done fairly, the job that the main stleem media does, and that's sort of the problem. >> then that's on us. >> that's on us. >> it's on us, but -- >> look, the idea that the m mainstream media and the -- who knows what the alternative media was the mainstream downtown. my point is hopefully everybody

has a voice. that's the point of what you're saying >> what i've always liked -- i guess i'm one of today's modern liberals i want everything. i'll judge i don't like it, i don't like it, i want to see it. >> but you do. you get to read all the different websites. >> i'd like to see babylon bee and -- >> you can go to babylon bee if you choose. >> it's too hard i need it on twitter but i can only look at 600. >> these services have to somehow do it for you. the truth is you can go to truth social it's available one of the things -- that's the great part about it. >> it's true if i wanted to see anything on a laptop, i had to go to the post. but that's not good. >> there you go. >> that's an example.

>> we go from insisting to do the pentagon papers to not doing the laptop story that's not zbhood we can have debates about what's publishable, what's not. as a free marketeer, don't you like that? that's the point. >> i don't know. what i'm seeing is i don't think the administration is being held accountable for some really egregious things because you need a really vibrant "new york times," "washington post" on these things, and they just haven't been on a lot of these things we're relying on rags to get any of this information. >> that's one of my first reads in the morning >> the "new york post" that's page 6.

>> let's not badmouth them. >> where there's smoke, there's fire if any of it's true, it's really, really serious really, really serious, and it's being totally ignored by people. it's almost like it's so important for their political -- you know, whichever way they lean for that to be perpetuated, it's almost hands off. it's frightened to me. it's frightening to me you know what i mean you've seen it. >> there are lots of things that are troubling, what i've read about this, if it's true. >> don't you wish the best journalists in the world -- if it was on the other shoe, you would want them flushing this out, getting it done, and that's not being done.

>> i don't know. i think it is being done i hope it's not a political reason that you're not seeing more stories. >> now you're sounding like it's already been looked into and nothing's there. that i don't know. >> i haven't done it myself, so i don't want to speak. let's talk about the other big story of the morning on social media land. twitter is limiting the amount of tweets you can read per day did you read it? are you all such addicts i did. >> the blue chip drn no, my world -- i'm with elon on that i went outside although it's hot. >> in a blog post he said the temporary limits will help it detect and eliminate the bots.

it would have allowed the bad actorss to alter their plans they have a tweet deck they say in 30 days use irs must be verified, that means, paid, eventually moving behind the wall. >> people were young, and you -- >> i'm such an addict because i surpassed 6,000. >> did you ever figure out how you got it he just gave you -- >> woke up one morning and i had it. >> i like not having it because, geez, some of the stuff i see this joe kernen say, i hope that's not him i really hope that's not him

if it doesn't have a blue checkmark, he has plausible deniability. >> this is you, cordny. >> meantime instagram is expected to launch its features tomorrow it offers a free description of the surface saying, quote, communities come together to discuss everything from the topics you care about today to what will be typing tomorrow typing threads brings up an icon of a ticket that brings you to a thread ticket to the launch of the new surface. just another feature of meta or inst instagram, take somebody eels's id idea and make it better. >> are you going to get it

>> i'm not on instagram or facebook courtney, do not get used to 615 for the first block this is not -- >> this is late. we're behind we're late coming up, futures pointing to a lower open. we'll talk strategy for the second half of the year for a break. and later, a look at the world's highest earning ceos you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth where meaningful relationships matter most. so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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futures at this hour are down but not out not a great week last week but a great first half our next guest says opportunities still exist in the u.s. with certain equities but maybe select opportunities

outside the u.s. offer even better prospects let's bring in chief investment officer of morningstar is it the interest rate environment or fundamentals abroad or just the valuations here we've already seen a move and maybe things are cheaper elsewhere? what is it that makes you think there are better places? >> yeah, you know, joe, it's really a valuation story if we if we're looking at markets within the u.s. and outside, you look at that if we're zooping in on areas like germany, uk equities, and other emerging markets, we're thinking about china, brazil a lot of these areas haven't had the same type of rally we've

seen within the u.s. and that puts them in a better position they also benefit from some currency exposure, and as we all know, the dollar has had a tremendous run and we would expect the currencies over time to look a little more appealing. >> i'm struck with told expression don't try this at home do i need morning start? if i wanted to invest in brazil, even china, it always seems like there's a lot of opportunity, but it seems like you'd bet doerr your homework. >> warning star wealth we'll buy a basket of docs we'll buy a basket of chinese

tech names and we'll see the opportunity there. these are healthy markets. >> in the united states you mentioned valuations that are so attractive it doesn't mat iror they haven't moved what are we talking about? >> it's the magnificent seven. 80%, 90% of the returns that have driven them higher. if we expand and look at other areas of the u.s. market,

there's actually some value here at home. so, of course, banks are not had the same run and there's fundamental reasons for that as we take a look at the value of the stocks, we think there's some valuation effort there. we also think materials are attractive and then it's not a bad time in the market psych toll be thinking about some measure of defensiveness, so something like health care can help bolster the partnership and protect it in the event we see market disappoint or the economy disappoint. >> marta, what do you think oil's inability to rally says about global growth in it here and whether we see them overshoot? do you have a macro viewpoint of where we are.

>> we do yeah, we absolutely do when we take a like at the economy right now, i think in our mind there's no question that there's some cooling at work now, of course, when we look, first is excess savings. if we look at the period of coviding lockdowns, folks have had a lot more cash in their pocketbooks. as we think about the economy and the u.s. economy it's put them on strong footing even as the fed has engaged on this very aggressive rate hiking cycle as we look, we see job openings coming off their peak. we see wage gains more in line there's certainly a cooling in

the economy. how significant will that be will it be enough to force it into a recession if we tack a like at how it's performed over the past year or so, it's proven much more resi resilient than i think folks expect it keeps a range how a hard landing isn't out of a question. a recession isn't out of the question, but we are starting from a pretty decent, you know, point, and so i think there's room for there to be a range >> etfs are easy if you get a spot, are you going to be on here talking than market or no maybe not? >> not any time soon bitcoin, crypto, a lot of those things, i think they are opportunities to reflect a world view they're opportunities to speculate on how those securities are going to perform, but they're not necessarily a

thing we can value. >> all right, okay marta, thank you >> my pleasure. >> all right. when we come back, a look at the world's highest earnings ceo. we're going to talk about their compensation in 2022 that's next. right now as we head to that break, take a look at the premarket winners and losers in the s&p 500.

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listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box. now a piece from "the wall street journal," highlighting executives who made more than 100 million years ago. they include the ceo from hertz,

p and others there are those including stephen schwarzman earning the biggest pay package at $250 million. $109 million of that came in the form of carried interest and incentive fee allocations. so a couple of interesting things can we go back to that full screen so the journal says that some of these folks are getting paid enormous amounts of money. if you look for example at the ceo there, go to barry mccarthy there at peloton the way they calculate this is very interesting it's based on their stock options. his stock options today are underwater they've gone down. i'm not sure on a today basis he would sit there and say, i'm one of the top ceos at the moment.

unfortunately if he duct turn things around -- he's trying valiantly -- at this moment, he's not getting paid. rapinoe is getting paid. the good news is he let's moved the stock up many are not on the list. >> because it's public. >> my carried interest, stephen schwarzman, they say most of his income comes from -- also the dividends should be taxed at ordinary income levels. so i don't know how that would work. >> don't argue without

apologizing that carried interest should stay what it is. rubenstein, all of them. they've got enough -- they don't need any more money. >> i don't think that they -- for policy reason? >> they do it because they just think -- they would tell you if it's not -- don't try to fence it, that's what they would tell you. other partnerships have benefitted from it and they feel like what they're doing for companies -- >> -- is work shoo otherwise -- >> why shouldn't they be in sent advised that every other way a work in america is not it's fascinating that we think this is a special class of humans inch one man done.

>> chrikyrsten sinema either she's going to win -- will she win as an an independent in arizona, and if she doesn't, iss she going to become the vice chair of blackstone >> do you have a reason to think that >> no. i don't know. >> i would suppress that >> you don't think so? you can't say it right here on cnbc coming up, treasury secretary jab it ylen elis visiting china this week we'll take you live to beijing that's coming up next. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and secure but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go.

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square, the day after fourth of july love it. i like fireworks my dogs don't. never did get any cbd gummies. probably should have gotten it i hear it works. >> for the dogs? you're saying with fireworks shoo did you notice there was also a lot of heavy weather too. >> there was >> they were like -- i mean we

went from unbelievable thunder to just nonstop fireworks and they're like -- they have god. they have no idea. they think the world might be ending there are the futures down about 148. the nasdaq, a relative basis, gained back a little last week, but it's 32% in the first six months best performance -- best opening in 46 years. >> we've got to get to china and then we've got mcc at the table. treasury secretary janet yelling going to beijing ahead of the new access to cloud computing. we're joined with more with eunice yoon. good morning. >> reporter: secretary yellen is set to arrive on thursday. over the next four days she'll be talking with chinese officials including her chinese counterpart as well as members of the u.s. business community

there's no expectation she'll have a sitdown with president xi jinping. it comes weeks after antony blinken was here it's part of the biden administration's attempt to really restore some of the dialogue and functioning between the two sides. the two have had very little communicationover the course of the last year after house speaker then, nancy pelosi, visited taiwan and angered beijing. the chinese are very happy with secretary yellen's visit, that the focus, they hope, is going to be about restoring the economic relationship. this has been a big concern here in china because of the weakened economy. beijing also seems quite concerned about what from what they believe to be a greater coordination and greater emphasis by washington as well as ugs allies on derisking

weaning the countries off of china or less some of there's an expectation authentication that chinese policy makers are going to be arguing that this is not a good thing for both sides and that they seem to have a belief that secretary yellen will be much more sympathetic to this issue. she's been widely quoted here repeatedly in this state press as saying that decoupling, which the chinese see as the same as derisking as disastrous for the relationship now, this all comes as just a couple of days prior to chinese had imt posed export curbs on two key metals for ev as well as semiconductors called gal yum and germane yum and those skpoert curbs are going to come to theess which could make for

awkward discussions with the u.s. secretary. >> it's going to be fascinating to see what she says we're going to bring you the news as it comes in the meantime we're going to talk with mischelle caruso cabrera. good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> what is your take you can go first ladies first what do you make of what the biden administration is saying about the cloud piece of this as compared to what janet yellen is going to say >> they've already said certain chips can not be sent to china, right? chips that are used for advanced ai so if a chinese company could circum development that plan by using cloud computing services, it makes sense to be able to thwart their ability to use chips. doesn't surprise me that this loophole would be closed. >> what is the next step you think these are connected.

is there sort of a next permutation? >> i think there's going to be continuous it for at the we've seen gal yum and geranium holding it up. do we see investment controls we've seen for a long period of time we know they're dovish about parts of the administration, about not wants to control as much u.s. dollars going into china. it's an extremely difficult situation. 're connected and yet the biden administration is concerned about china's intention sfoos the other piece of this is you'll have janet yellen go there. amenable to trying to keep things together, but at the same time, there's so many in the congress and senate and elsewhere who are screaming from the top of the roofs at this point about the problems they see with china

you know, are you going to hear one piece of it this week from yellen but there's this other piece of it and how do they square those two things? >> yeah. that's the wrong way to look at it, andrew not just congress and other places, but in the biden administration itself there's a lot of different views that tend toward the hawkish side. i think yelin is clear she wants to have a healthy, she calls it, economic relationship, that seems some common ground and is looking for ways to cooperate on global challenges and i think that's fine. but i think to me it's prudent not to overestimate the power of one person in a broad administration and is not prudent at all to think this trip is going to change some of the long terms, strategic trajectories of the relationship she will have the conversation, but to michele's point, it's a little dovish and it's not going

to change two economies, two countries that are competing with a lot of constructional incon grewties and one trip is not going to change all of that. >> can i add, treasury is his storyicly the motive dovish arm of the government. people in finance are very cognizant of the unintended consequences that other parts of the administration are informed about. >> that begs the question. who's got the power in the administration >> look, overwhelmingly, washington is hawkish. washington is overwhelmingly hawkish on china the republicans and the democrats are consistently trying to outcompete each other on how hawkish they can sound. you have the china community and it's going to be very difficult to push back. >> i'm curious do you -- are you suggesting that it's a mistake, or are you suggesting that's the

appropriate view at the moment, this hawkish stance. >> go back and read biden administration's national security strategy. there are many countries in the world who would like to do the international order in an autocratic fashion china is the only country who can do it militarily and economically we have to be very diligent of that we have to be very concerned 90% of advance semiconductors come from taiwan we cannot live our lives wo was asked whether or not -- are we doing anything to try to keep taiwan independent and he goes, that's the whole reason -- that's all i think about when i em there so we're not just -- i mean we aren't just hoping that they don't or wondering whether we

can prevent that they do we're actively trying to prevent that that doesn't happen that's not what the chinese are thinking, is it? it's just a madder of time >> certainly xi jinping has gibbon orders for the pla to be able to take taiwan. but having the capability to do so and willingness are two separate things. to your point, joe, u.s. policy is about deterrence so that decision is never made and so what you're seeing is a whole host of deterrence measures increased presence in the south china sea. sailing through the taiwanese states all of these things are sending a signal that prevents beijing even if they maintain the capability to do so on taiwan. >> tim cook's own -- elon's there. blinken says, yeah. >> we're inextricably linked for

sure. >> would you give up -- >> i think the risk/reward calculation of investing in china has change dramatically. it used to be a country that was going to grow. they were doing all kinds of things that would lead to economic growth. therefore, you're investing there. but they're doing a lot of things you can face sanctions, all kinds of things you didn't the anticipate when you first invested in china. >> he's not like putin this is a guy we're going to have this is going to be the guy we're dealing with, no question. there's no wagner group ready to march on. >> you're correct. this is not a putin situation in china. >> we were nice for 30 years

they never became democratic republic. >> i think they're wired about the democratic republican. when you give people freedom of choice economically, they want other things and they didn't like that. >> i'm happy to thank everybody. >> i'll do it. thank you, michelle. >> good to see you. >> we so appreciate it. kyle bass, he's on at 8:00 one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪ power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis

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to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. coming up on "squawk box," the chips, andou y can watch us any time on the cnbc app

our next guest says the key investment for the chip

industry, exposure to ai, electric vehicles and joining us to talk more about the chip sector is bank of america global research semiconductor analyst. thank you for joining us. as we look for the second half of the year do you think leaders from the chip sector for the first half will continue to lead going forward? i know nvidia is a top pick so i guess you assume it will play in these key areas and continue to lift a sector going forward for the rest of the year? >> good morning, thank you for having me. the semiconductor industry is going to cross currents on the challenging side consumer demand is sluggish, could you demand is sluggish. we have seen europe go through issues, china is also going through a weak phase, but at the same time there are a few green shoots with major disruptions and we are in the first year of a could be a mundane period where we could

benefit from these technology disruptions. we call them clouds, cars and complexity. cloud is investment, ai, cloud computing that is nvidia, the secular moved to electric vehicles cars requiring two times the number of semiconductors, that is analog devices, microchip and other sending complexity, the rise in complexity of chipmaking. materials and ready to be selective focusing on these areas, cloud cars and complexity we think there is technology disruptions. >> i'm surprised the fourth, is it china? surprised it was not one of the top three, how do we factor in the financial implications of what's going on in china? it seems like there is more and more export restrictions with these chip makers.

>> i think any friction between the largest designer of semiconductors which is the u.s. and the largest buyer which is china, they are never good. friction in a global industry is never good but at the same time one has to realize the u.s. has a lot of leverage in this economic tension, a lot of these reside in the u.s. and a lot of the output serve for one of china's most important industry electronics. let's look at the most recent issue which is tension because there are multiple sources available for these specific materials that are only used in a handful of semiconductors and in many cases the chips produced actually import to electronics that are assembled within china. we think we have to look through some of the headline

issues, but i do agree over long-term, tensions between these countries is never good for a global market such as semiconductors, but we think in the near to medium term many of these issues are manageable. >> talking more about the potential for ai with some of these names, how much of what we expect in innovation is already baked into these evaluations and how much more upside could be that's not already priced in? >> the bold case scenario as we are in the first year which could be multiple years of changing and transformation of nearly $1 trillion of data of traditional computing toward accelerated computing requiring the use of ai, nvidia is at the forefront of driving that change. i think every six or 12 months

there will be a report card of investments that are made. whether they are monetized. technology is not the bottom line, it is the ability of cloud players to monetize this technology. related to valuation, one has to realize technology stops don't move up or down because of valuation, there has to be an appetite because of market conditions, interest rates and so forth. when the condition is met it is about the size of the market and competitive positioning, it is about execution profitability and that's the reason nvidia, despite trading at 40 to 45 times early estimate next year we think the market is large and growing. its execution is outstanding, competitive position is outstanding and if i go back two years ago when the company was trading at the same valuation the stock went down to generate 30 to 50s returns

at exactly the same valuation. we don't think valuation stands in the way of these stocks doing well as long as the other boxes are checked which we think they are. >> to wrap it up with a fine point you think the economic conditions are going to be right to own the stocks in a growing environment. >> absolutely. semiconductors are the building blocks of the global economy, but it is cloud computing, whether it is in the move to more energy efficient infrastructure, whether it is in cars or the basic infrastructure it is also driving demand toward smarter devices. there's a lot of operational expense, not just x, so we think semiconductors are the basic building blocks of the global economy. in that going economic environment the demand we think will outweigh the growth of the

economy. >> thank you very much for joining us. >> coming up, analyst upgrade for netflix, how the stock is reacting. and, we've got your playbook for the second half of the year for the casino stocks. after this

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stock skid said to resume trading after a brief holiday recess. a look at what to watch as we kick off the second half of 2023 on wall street. tensions between washington and beijing as the treasury secretary prepares for her trip plus a judge tells the biden administration to limit contact with social media. walter isaacson will be with us to talk about that and so much more. rolling the dice on gambling stocks, the second half of a book on the sector and where you should be putting your money to work. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq market

site in times square. it is the hour of the pickle ball segment for andrew who is such a journalist that you decided. >> i needed to try. i played before, but this weekend i got into it. >> that's coming up. >> we have no video, but we have a segment about pickle ball and breaking news about pickle ball. >> i won't comment, like so many things when they are new i don't accept them for a while. i won't be on the court anytime soon. i am a late adopter. i played ping-pong, but i think that's a little strenuous. >> remember when we did? why don't we get a table? >> we could but it's a little more strenuous and dangerous.

by a long shot from what i have seen at lifetime. lifetime made the biggest push into pickle ball and it reminds me. did you see caddy shack? hey, that's a peach, that's what i see. i see people. >> it's not badminton. >> it's worse. >> professional teams? what do you do for a living? i'm a professional athlete. pickle ball. >> i am a late adopter. i take it back if people like it then it's fine. you liked it? >> i did. it is fun. i thought it was. >> you played tennis. >> i play a lot of tennis, but it's more dangerous. you are an older person.

>> so he's warning you. be careful. >> anyway the futures are down, but not out. the next guy, they say golf is not a sport if golf is not, let's get it. >> okay let's get a look at this morning's premarket numbers. >> i will say this, i can't remember who, but i remember reading something with some research note that estimated americans would sustain about 400 some millions of dollars worth of injury related cost because of pickle ball. so i think it might've been ubs or something. >> 80-year-old people get hurt more. >> fast movement and a hard court. not a soft court. you are moving in a different way, quick moves. >> you play pickle ball yet?

>> he says it's the best thing that ever happened. >> we have to kill the pickle ball segment. >> i note jason is waiting in the wings and we had to do a market set up, let's get set on the mega cap names, bigger crowd cloud computing you can kind of see all down fractional in the premarket trade. partly because the biden administration is repairing preparing to restrict chinese access to american cloud computing services according to a wall street journal report, the new rule would likely require cloud providers like amazon and microsoft to seek government permission before working with some chinese customers. in more of thefor tat back and forth trade clouds stocks are at the forefront. now we are watching shares of review and on the move higher by 4%, they electric vehicle

maker has rolled out delivery van models in europe, they were commissioned by amazon to move to electrification. amazon says 300 of those vans will make a debut in germany as part of the larger hundred thousand vehicle order from vivian in 2019. amazon is still vivian's biggest single shareholder was 17%. vivian is up 6% in the premarket trade. a steep move. ending with shares of netflix which are higher by 1%, 20,000 shares of volume helped by analysts with goldman sachs. upgrading the company to a neutral, it was a prior cell they opt the price in what could be seen as a catch-up call after a blistering run over the last year. they cited positive operating momentum with a lot of headwind

that led to their rating like subscriber growth issues, competition, other headwind, not playing out forcefully so it has been a 50% run year to date for netflix shares and they have been rocketing high as of late so yes it is more of a catch-up call. >> embarrassment. >> i will listen to this guy. selling and pricing hard at 230. now neutral? went to a neutral. went to a neutral basically from selling and i will listen to this guy. what's his name? >> 445 is the price market. >> dutiful. >> that's why you pay those guys for the savvy market, to navigate the difficult waters that are hard for normal investors. you have to go to goldman sachs. >> just a fractional move

higher today. >> i am just like you know. i will contemplate. listen to this, i guarantee my german shepherd could be better at analyzing netflix. gunther which? >> i will settle into the new season of the witch are and see what it does for netflix. >> stock futures are lower ahead of wall street opening, joining us chairman and ceo research partners started coming around a little bit. number one i feel your pain, i understand things were not all set up for a big move higher in the nasdaq. we had a guy on who said he did not feel he was wrong being negative he just felt like the strength of the arguments were so good that his clients should respect him even though he was

dead wrong. now we have gotten where we are you cannot go polish. and people have been on saying that we may not see, we saw last week or maybe monday, we may not see a new high out of this trading. the new all-time high for two or three years from now. >> from evaluation perspective it is hard to make the case you will see a new high and it's hard to make the case you should be at the levels we have seen right now especially if you have the economic view in the start with a macro view and then moving out from there. listen, ai in the narrow market is gardening and ai has all the characteristics of something that is a little bit unstoppable. it is new, very hard to discount it and so unless it hits unmovable object it is

probably moving higher for the time being. i am still quite cautious on the economy because the economic indicators are still very very troublesome. >> by the way, we get, we don't to put money where our mouth is, if we could buy stocks i would've mortgaged my house when netflix was under 200. if it is 700. now it is 200. it was 700. this guy cannot figure it out? goldman sachs pays whatever hundreds of thousands or millions and you can't figure out under 200 netflix probably i don't get it. >> remember i thought facebook was crazy low. >> remember that? >> i do. >> i never said don't buy. >> you always remember the good

calls, the bad calls you forget. >> okay well let's get and you have not missed that much on the s&p. >> being fair to myself in our business early is a euphemism for long, by the same token the market is lower from hen we got cautious than where it was, bouncing off the bottom so we missed that move, but we think the fundamental case to be bearish is troublesome. >> so you are waiting at one year builds? >> i think discretion is the better part of market where it is. >> who said that? >> that was one of the great characters of all time. >> he was a coward and you know some genius there.

>> just because you are fat and a drunk doesn't mean. >> some of my best friends. >> real words of wisdom. listen, if i'm looking at the market the thing that concerns me most the second half of the year is the fact that you will see significant drain in liquidity. the first half of the year the failure of silicon valley bank and the debt eiling crisis ironically proved to be a boom for liquidity because the fed increased the balance sheet $200 million and the treasury department drew down general account by $600 billion. the irony is the negatives wound up being positive and injecting liquidity in the system for the second half of the year you will have to pull out the liquidity. >> that's not the way you want to sustain for the fed. >> i would like to try free

markets. in this country it would not be the worst thing to give it a shot. you will get better outcomes long-term and we can all go back. >> i thought it would be really nice compared to last time. basically i was saying, i was basically saying how do you go positive now when you have missed 20% and there is 3% left? you can't. you are in a pickle. >> you are out of here, let's talk about pickle ball. >> left-hand, right-hand it does not matter. >> that is badminton. >> we will talk about it, coming up a new ceo and coo as the pickle ball frenzy explodes. they will join us next to discuss.

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welcome back to "squawk box", pickle ball announcing new members of the leadership team as the sport continues to grow. backed by names like tom brady, lebron james and michael phelps. joining us now is the major league pickle ball ceo and the

major league pickle ball coo, good morning gentlemen. it is great to see both of you. i hear that you have some news to announce on the broadcast. >> well, we are joining the leadership team of major league pickle ball. very excited about the opportunities in front of us and it is great to hear that you have been playing. >> so, tell us how you guys decided you were doing this and where are we do you think in this sort of journey that is professional pickle ball. >> i think we are in the very early stages. the very early innings of the professionalization of the sport but we are on the cusp of witnessing the birth of the next great spectator sport in

america. >> bruce, is your sense that the players that are going to be professional players, they will be professional pickle ballplayers, tennis players that moved to pickleball, ping pong players that sort of, how does this work? they are all sort of in the same genre. >> the answer is yes they will come from different areas. we are starting to see the first generation of players who come up through the rankings playing pickleball exclusively. there are a slew of tennis players that have played, to the point, table tennis and badminton, but now we see the first generation coming through with the best players in the world growing up playing pickleball exclusively and their talent is coming through. >> in terms of where you think you can play this in front of

lots of people do you think of this as being as big as tennis? what's the size and scope of this? >> i think it can be as big as tennis some day. we just had a tournament in san clemente, california at lifetime. the stands were packed, four a tournament and the final day was a monday. we were not sure how the crowds would do on a monday afternoon but the place was packed. it is so compelling and if no one, if you never seen pickleball at the highest level, it is really a remarkable remarkable thing. the athleticism on display, some of the athletes, recent converts, we have some tennis pros who are cracking the top 10 in the world who are playing in the best female player in the world right now is 16 years old. there is a spectrum of age

ranges, but the athleticism is remarkable. there is nothing else like it especially with our team format at major league pickleball, it showcases the diversity of athleticism and we think it's what's going to break through and convert the tens of millions of avid players into fans. >> i hear a lot of people talk about playing, but what about those of us who want to watch it? what are the media viewership opportunities looking like and how do you monetize it? >> we had a combination of our youtube channel with explosive growth, 500% increase year-over- year and we have traditional partners, espn 2, the tennis channel, msg so as we develop a long-term strategy, the biggest thing is making sure fans can easily find us.

as we look for 24 media rates and beyond that will be one of the things to help guide us toward creating partnerships that work for the media partner and for us displaying all the talents of these players and teams. >> how much does it matter this is becoming a popular game for folks to play on their own? the reason i ask. is that going to create interest or is the interest creating stars in the league, celebrities, i watched when andre agassi and john mcenroe were playing so what is it that takes this to the next place? >> i will take that. one of the things we're working on. we have a, a+ partner in terms of production working with us behind the scenes to produce some original, the original docu-series which we are hoping

to announce soon. i cannot break the news now. >> like a netflix style f1 or what they're doing with golf? >> exactly, on pickleball professionals. a lot of people would say i did not know there are professionals, but that's going to change very soon. some of the stories are amazing, the athletes are incredible and we think that will be another way, that storytelling is another way to connect with fans. >> we have to run. i have a final selfish question. i played on the hardcourt and we talk about older folks getting injured playing this because you have to move and be fast, the ball does not bounce very well which is part of the game. is there a bouncy ball or a softer surface? is there a thought about that? >> currently there is not a movement toward creating a bouncy ball for softness.

>> for softer surface like clay or grass you can do wimbledon style. >> we are in the early stages. there will be innovation going forward, at the professional level we are on the hardcourt, but like i said this is early stages and there has been innovation and it will continue. >> up your game, play with the big boys. we look forward to following your progress and your success. >> there is paddle tennis. the sport in los angeles was a tennis ball with a little hole in the racket. >> more like a wiffleball. >> coming up, walter isaacson joins us, "squawk box" will be

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now, the answer to today's aflac trivia question. who was the last pitcher before domingo german of the new york yankees to throw a perfect game? the answer? felix hernandez. >> second have playbook and placing bets on the gaming sector, the next six months look to be active for the space, driving the gaming sector. >> hello gentlemen. if you want to roll the dice on gambling stocks in the second half of 2023 watch for mergers and acquisitions and the brawling that goes along with offers, gambling newcomer fanatics makes $150 million bid for the points that, draftkings does not need it but enters the fray with a bid forcing fanatics to up its offer to 225 million.

draftkings and fanduel are the market share leaders by far closely watching fanatics coming in with roughly 60 operators more consolidation is coming. secondly, watch for the ipo in public listings, the fanduel parent hopes to engage its all important customer base in stock investing later this year. now that the ipo frees is gone insiders are watching to see if fanatics or other smalley operators will go public. casinos into the second half against tough comparisons after a blockbuster record-breaking result last year. in las vegas international travel and convention business has not fully rebounded, plus f1 is pushing vegas to its best november ever so there could be catalysts and this week gaming revenue posted for june, five times higher than last year.

still off 40% from 2019 which leaves a lot of room for improvement for mgm, las vegas sands and wynn resorts. >> the recovery has not been as strong as hoped? >> there is so much more to run. they have seen you have a lot of people coming back, but it's slightly different, there was a move to the mass market, but for instance wynn caters to vip and it is doing well. the fact that you had five times higher gaming revenues compared to last year, it was dead last year the borders were closed so this is the beginning and anticipated to move even higher, but that depends on china with covid and other economic factors. >> interesting stuff happening in gaming. a federal judge restricting the biden administration from having contact with social

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the biden administration preparing to restrict chinese companies access to cloud computing services. the new rule would likely require cloud providers like amazon and microsoft to seek permission before working with some chinese customers. the commerce department will

announce the policy in the coming weeks, this comes one day after china imposed new export restrictions on key metals used two computer chips. a judge restricting agencies and officials from the biden administration from having contact with social media. stems from a lawsuit in louisiana and missouri claiming the government officials went too far in efforts to encourage social media companies to address certain posts that could contribute to vaccine hesitancy during the pandemic, we are joined now by special guest here to talk about that and so many other things. walter isaacson, cnbc contributor, professor at tulane and author of the forthcoming, on elon musk highly anticipated. we had a chance to spend some time together at the aspen idea festival. first to the ruling by the

judge. what do you make of it? do you think it will hold? >> when i was writing the book on elon musk i spent time at twitter headquarters watching what was called the twitter files and it shows the influences coming from the outside saying don't print this about covid or the election and i am a old journalist and i remember the government telling us don't print the story or readers, you always get pressure not to print stories and initially i thought this is the way it is supposed to work. twitter prints and stops or curate what it wants and the government puts pressure. the more that i saw it and the more i saw the things coming out in the files i realized it was not just a few requests, but a big government collusion with private companies, thousands and thousands of things suppressing normal

information like the barrington declaration on covid which i initially thought did not make a lot of sense, but later thought maybe it did. so i think it is right to say we went a little too far allowing the government to suppress information. i do think, i know the judge and the attorney general, i am not sure this is going to stay as it goes up in the appeal in the way that it is, but it is a good warning shot to say that government should not be in the wholesale business. >> we were talking about this at 6:00 and i was saying what you said, a lot of people are competing for either attention or trying to suppress things. >> how many times do you get calls from people? >> every day and my perspective and maybe you can persuade me. it is that in fact, if you want

to call and say elon musk or mark zuckerberg please don't publish this and they decide not to, that's the free market. you are saying it is more than that? >> i think it is a free market and government should have free speech right to yell and scream at people for twitter or meta or for that matter cnbc or time magazine. i think in this case, it became a very large and organized effort and it was useful to get exposed. >> so you think okay, the decision goes too far so is there a decision that would make sense to you given what you have seen? >> yeah, i think you could say that if you use real pressure, if you start to threaten social media or media to say look we are watching you and we could

bring antitrust cases against you if you don't do this, that is too far. i don't think that happened, i think the ruling is a little too far, but not like there isn't some smoke here. >> when it comes down to it, we agree on many things and you come kicking and screaming to the right side of things i have noticed. so andrew was talking about the pentagon papers and the way that it used to be. do you notice a difference in the way, the brake institutions, don't you notice certain things are not covered that should be covered. whether it's major tv, news networks or the washington post or the new york times, they might be covered somewhere but it seems to be selective. almost as if, how does that happen? >> absolutely and before the ruling in the book at the end

of the twitter files section i compared it to the pentagon papers. i said that journalist during that period, the watergate period and new york times and washington post pentagon papers, they did not feel they were partners of the government, they felt they were supposed to hold the government accountable. i have watched it happen, even to me, we think you are holding government accountable, but then you are having meetings with people in the government and i think that has been a change since watergate. >> hard to talk about these things because it is something they are close to one entity, but i saw this interview recently with joe biden. not a single question about any. >> people want to do softball interviews you have the right to to do it. >> what about this.

>> i know. we count on, if you want to try to get to the bottom of what could be, if it's influence or it may have been enriching yourself through relationships where you are expected to do something at the highest levels of government and you don't have the greatest news organizations in the world tracking that down because they want to protect whatever political side they are on. >> there is the right of the press to suck up to power if they want, but in the era of the pentagon papers you also had people who fought. >> i look at the hillary clinton emails and i think the reason we knew about that was because it appeared on the new york times. >> so did the russia collusion. we went so far, nobody is interested in whether tens of

millions of dollars changed hands? >> you are still on hunter biden. i understand. >> underneath it s about hunter at this moment. if the president can go himself to do these things he has someone else. i would hope that a vibrant press would hold government accountable regardless of the party in power. >> when you look at this ruling, getting off the biden, if you don't mind. >> if you are running cnn would you cover in more than they are? >> i will not comment on that. i will tell you when you look at this ruling which is really important, underlying it is the notion that the press decided to form a partnership. one of the writers said that the government forced these companies to be unwilling collaborators and i think

that's wrong i think they were willing collaborators with the government which gets to your point it is different from it was in the days of the pentagon papers. >> one elon musk or two twitter questions. one is some people say the twitter files exposed this which was very important to help us understand these things, others say that he is a free speech maximalist when he says he wants to be, but in many other instances he is suppressing either voices he doesn't like or there was the issue where he said the phrase sister and there was so offensive that if you were to use that on the platform itself i don't know if it would kick you of the platform, but there may be a suspension. so people look at this baby through a political prism or

social prism. what prism do you look at it through? >> read the book in september, the guy is mercurial. so yes both of those things can be right. he is a free speech maximalist in some cases and when somebody is tracking his jet and doing other things he gets back up. at times he is contradictory. i don't think he is acting on the gender thing, but there are many other things where he puts his thumb on the scale sometimes. and then coming along with the twitter comparison competitor. elon musk told me many times that the goal he had at twitter was to have a place where all sides of the political spectrum could be there discussing and combating. he says that it was really bad in social media, cable news media and talk radio that people went to their own echo chamber, the left when here and

the right when there. did not want that on social media. one danger is doing the things you talked about, he puts his thumb on the scale to help people who on the right feel they have been censored or suppressed on twitter which is good, but he puts it so hard on the scale and is so dismissive that he may help organize social media, he does not want to vulcanized it so the left and the right go to different social media. >> where are you on what facebook is doing in terms of this twitter competitor he would call it a copycat. >> it is a competitor, this is the way it should be with multiple offerings. my hope would be that it would cause twitter which has up its game in some areas, allowing video and space all working well , some problems keeping the servers running. but the engineering is doing

pretty well. may be what elon musk has done which i don't particularly love is make twitter more contentious. you don't just lose people on the progressive left, you will lose reasonable people like you and me in the middle sometimes and i don't know if meta can pick them up. i think it is a danger that will have so many fractured outlets. >> this is where you and i are 100% in agreement i think only one of these things can exist that will really work as a townsquare. the network effect makes it work. if facebook is successful, the question is, it would have to be super successful because you have to rip everybody off of twitter, truth social all of these things to have one place to work. >> yes and we will see how it plays out.

the network effect means like birds flocking to telephone wire, you want to be where everybody else is tweeting, now he will be pressured. to say, okay let's make sure this is a comfortable place so people don't fly to the other wire. >> we have elon musk involved in so many businesses. running them, he has got his finger on the pulse of so many, how much time is he spending on twitter? >> it is totally amazing. i have spent hours per day with him and he can float, even in the moment where his twitter bid is accepted he is down in texas where they launched starship, looking at the raptor engines and doing a two hour meeting on how to simplify the heat shields underneath those 30 through raptors. i'm thinking wait a minute you just got twitter how can your mind not be jumping around?

it is that focus and he is starting this ai company now, because he is worried about what open ai and deep mind google are doing. >> if you are a tesla shareholder you're not worried about the time he is spending on twitter? >> i am worried, i think it's good that she is focusing on a lot of the aspects of twitter, but still, the rocketship keeps going up, they keep getting to orbit, tesla set a record on quarterly sales. every time i get worried i think maybe i was wrong. >> before we let you go, when we come back from commercial, there was a headline about what's happening in china, the biden administration, cloud computing. it seems to be the next step around ai and the chips we are allowing. how far do you think this goes? >> i think we have gone a

little bit too far and getting adversarial to china. we have to be specific for what we care about which is national security. some of the chips and technology you don't want those to be exported. you to find that material, china is not going to give it to us, but when you have seen them doing is cooling down rhetoric. the secretary going there and i hope we don't try to decouple the economy from china we had to learn to confront them as adversaries and partners. one of the things that happened on the trip to china is he brought up ai as a possible area where they should be doing collaboration in the chinese said yes let's work on that. all the way from kissinger to the president on diplomacy will find certain tracks you want to talk about. >> so i can't ask about cnn then? >> you can ask.

i was there 25. >> a new you are there. you saw what happened, saying journalists are getting back to trying to be somewhere in the center and the dead end still there, did not have a chance from the very beginning. so what would you do? would you admit and stay left as an alternative to fox orchard to bring back to the cnn you remember? >> i ran it 20 years ago. >> would you run it like he ran it? >> everybody has to do the time, i will say this generally. there is a hunger now for really valuable information. in the era of ai and social media, would judges in louisiana telling social media companies what they couldn't do. you say this is trusted information and you licensed information to ai companies who

don't want chat to hallucinate, but get things right, there's a lena producing highly reported and highly valuable information. >> walter isaacson, thank you. appreciate it. caféty espre one high-pressure system that can do both. brew to your heart's desire with the l'or barista system. a masterpiece in taste.

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i see the price of wti up 2% what's going on in the headlines from the conference? >> the big headline from the conference this morning,

speaking for the fuirst time since they extended the cuts through august, they are continuing to actively manage this market. when it came to the cooperation with russia, he said, look, we are tcontinuing to cooperate wih them and russia announced they could expand their cut remains solid. >> is this part of an effort to get the price of oil around 80 >> i think the goal of saudis is to try to push prices higher from here. i think they believe there's significant negative sentiment in the market, they talked about speculators in the market, macro concerns, rate hike concerns the saudi oil minister wants to come out and say we will manage this market in terms of our

willingness to see this market >> as we watch interest rates tu continue to move higher, what is the impact with oil? >> i think the rate hikes is one of the most important things holding this market back i think there are a lot of people who basically last summer started to fear jerome powell more than vladimir putin the market sentiment shifted negative when they started thinking about the impact of rate hikes on demand for oil, potentially a hard landing and so i think that continues to be. if you ask me the biggest head wind for oil, it continues to be one of the biggest head winds for oil. >> can you talk more about russia's role here and the impact on the price of oil >> russia's not at this conference there's no russian speaker on the stage here, but the russia

partnership has been something a number of market participants are questioning. they say russian barrels continue to flow into asia some have been waiting for some type of dust-up like we saw in march of 2020. that's why the saudi oil minister was on stage today saying the relationship remains solid. he's trying to project to the market that there are no cracks coming in the partnership with russia as we look out for the remainder of the year. >> thank you very much for joining us today >> thank you zc coming up. a federal judge limiting the biden administration communicating about online content. we'll have the latest. as we head to break, some of the worst levels we've seen, 180 point of downward pressure

"squawk box" will be right back.

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♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ good morning futures are lower as the markets reopen in the u.s. after the 4th of july holiday. now the dwraata is starting to u in >> and back off. a federal judge telling biden t back off

the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times squires feels like monday but it's actually wednesday becky is off today what kind of a monday? is it a little bit of a july 4th hangover maybe a little down 139 or so, the nasdaq giving back 24 or so all these after some very surprising gains registered by stocks in the first six months of the year. >> let's get over to dom chu

now. >> bigger news on the labor front, having impacts on shares of shipping. ups down about 2%. talks between it and the teamsters union have brown down. the company has walked away from negotiations and its works are have overwhelmingly approved a strike the current labor deal is set to expire on july 31st. ups responded it has nearly a month to negotiate and it has not walked away from talks and adding that the teamsters union has a responsibility to remain at the negotiating table ups shares down about 2% right now. >> shares of rivian are down you may recall advance were

commissioned by amazon to move towards electrification of its fleet. 300 of the vans will make their debut in germany in the coming week in include of its 100,000 vehicle order from 2019. shares up 6 op.5% right now. shares of transocean are higher by 4% the drilling services company is getting upgraded to buy from neutral over at citi the target price gets raised to $9.50. it implies a 30% up side from monday's close also good geographic positioning in brazil, the gulf of mexico and west africa as well.

tr tr tr transocean shares up >> a judge limiting communication with social media companies about online content he ruled the biden official's likely barred the first amendment. they've been contacting the companies with the purpose of suppressing political views and public speech. it's great to see you this morning. i'm so curious what you thought of the ruling and whether you think it holds and how you think it changes, if it does, the world of social media. >> look, the big social media rule making or court case that really mattered this year was around the supreme court section 230. could these companies be held liable for content that was posted obviously the courts sided with the technical platforms. that was the big win i think sort of the ruling that

we saw over the weekend tied to how much the administration can intervene, i think honestly is irrelevant to these stocks the far big ger question is the state of the ad market that is where there is still a good amount of concern of just how much better are things getting. you and joe and the team have been talking about this, quote unquote, recession forever now it's like we're on the precipice of a recession in the ad market for months >> from a consumer perspective, do you want these companies essentially sensoring or adjusting, changing the algorithm for you, the viewer, the consumer or do you want a

truly genuine platform we'll see what happens obviously h when instagram starts its threads programtomorrow. how do you see this playing out? you talk about the advertiser. we could do that what does the advertiser want but also what does the customer want >> we know what the advertiser wants. advertisers want to reach eyeballs the goal of every advertiser is to move product off shelves, cars off lots. that's why you advertise your goal is obviously to sell product. that is why people advertise and so however you can best target i mean, obviously we talked a lot about a.i. recently. when you think about the way the algorithms work,s that all been something that all of these companies, meta, tiktok, that's something we've been talking about for a long time.

when you think become to what does the consumer want, i think increasingly the consumer wants to be entertained and they want a good experience. to your point the problem that you run into with all of these platforms is they start serving you more and more of what you like that's the way all of these algorithms are built every algorithm is going to have some inherent bias to it really the question is who sets the rules and who can adjust the rules and how much like -- do you want meta fully in charge of what those algorithms looks like i think you've heard mark zuckerberg testify in front of congress he would love some rules of the road and some base level of regulation i don't think it's going to happen, though >> rich, we're showing the stock at 285, 35 this morning. do you think the success or failure of whatever you think

threads is going to become is in this stock in any way? >> no. to the extent that, i mean, look, i think zuckerberg's been pretty open for a long time that twitter has underperformed its potential. i think that's pretty obvious. it's why it's now owned by elon musk and not a separate company. is there an ability it create something? meta's created a lot of things that have gone nowhere they've done dating apps, they've done gaming. remember the whole currency, crypto currency and they were going to enter into that there's lots of things they try. whether or not the stage is set to actually be disruptive and create a new twitter or effectively and alternative twitter is really hard to get the type of global audience that you have on twitter and to get people to use that, i know we're 24 hours away from when this new product

launches i'm excited to try it, i've already predownloaded it but we'll see whether the community is there blue sky, which has been the open source twitter that jack dorsey started does not seem to be a vibrant community i only see tech vcs and tech george journalists active there. >> so i guess the question is what handicap do you put on what facebook is doing and on what twitter does eventually? >> what really matters for meta is one thing the reason we got excited about this stock, the stock is up probably $150 since then, it's been more than a double because their core business is getting better, andrew and that's what's going to matter in term of what drives this stock. threads would be a nice incremental positive but what really matters is the overall improvement, meta's ability to improve their targeting and i think they're getting pretty

c close to where they were it is getting better they are seeing improved performance and they're still nowhere as good as meta in terms of targeting ads for direct response advertisers it is literally just continuing to improve snapchat is several quarters behind i think you're seeing investors getting more excited about snapchat but they're still behind by a good amount. >> appreciate is very much >> happy 4th >> you, too. >> coming up, hey, you, get off my cloud do you know how old that song is >> old >> 60 years. >> how come we don't have any big new songs? are there any? >> there have been >> the u.s. aims to restrict china. >> look at taylor swift.

>> i know, i went. she's amazing. >> the usa aims to restrict china's access to cloud computing as janet yellen heads to china and we'll talk to kyle bass next of hayman capitol coming up next and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures are lower. dow jones industrial average indicating lower open by 195 points or so, s&p 500 down 26, nasdaq off 97 points according to reuters, the company is currently in talks with the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq about a potential debut but timing remains uncertain. the company is under scrutiny over labor practices and may decide to scrap public day plans. shein was valued at more than $60 billion and could become the most valuable china-funded

company to go public in the u.s. since 2021 >> and the new rule, if adopted would likely require they seek permission before working with some chinese companies the commerce department expected to announce the new policy in the coming days. this seems to be an extension of where we've been on the chip front. if you have access to the cloud, maybe you can do some of the same things. >> caught in a loophole. now i realize i've seen a lot of those shein bags those are around so i have heard of shein.

now i got it, i got it have you bought something? >> i have not. >> i have not bought anything either >> big story last week treasury secretary janet yellen will travel to beijing this week to meet with senior chinese officials. this follows visits from other high-level business leaders. joining us now, kyle bass. bizarre the times we live in kyle blinken goes over, seems we're great. then the president calls xi a dictator and now janet yellen's going over she's going to be nice tim cook and elon musk go over, they're nice then they send a spy balloon over and buy more farmland next to our defenses. it's so bizarre. the frenemy side of things seem to be getting more out on extremes and it's impossible -- if i were a company, i wouldn't

know how to navigate it right now. i don't know what's going to happen >> i don't know if that's a question or not but great to be here >> the question is what to do if you're doing business in china do you preemptively get out because they're going to attack or take taiwan or go along as business as usual because it's so important to your income statement? >> it reminds me of that inf infamous line while the music is playing, we're still going to get up and dance it was a more aggressive extension of the law they first enacted called the counter -- it allowed them to detain ex-pat employees.

now it's even broader and the counterforeign sanctions law focused solely on countersanctions this realizes seizure individual assets and visa denials. it allows the chinese communist party to act more on political powers and not necessarily on legal powers i think if you were honest with yourself, if you were a corporate ceo or board and you took out the while board and wrote all the risk you were aware of on the board and then wrote all of the positive attributes of doing business in china, the outcome of that exercise would surely be that you would reduce as much as you possibly could your business in china. maybe you'd take your working capital out, maybe you'd try to sell your pp & e to a chinese firm or be as asset light as

possible that's what goldman sachs does they don't have a lot of money offer over there they know one day the music's going to stop. when you think go janet yellen and blinken and others going over there, the communist party knows how to play wall street. greed is what drives us to continue to do business with someone that commits -- it currently committing ethnic and cultural genocide, that flew a spy balloon over one of our nuclea nuclear missile sites, someone that has sought and ratified a contract with a criminal >> so we won't sell chips, they won't sell us material for chips. now we're going do something with the cloud it keeps going back and forth, retaliatory measures and yet

everybody, we're meeting and smiling at each other like it's business as usual. i don't know if you saw "60 minutes" where the navy, the gentleman running our operations over in that part of the world said we are absolutely there as a deterrent. we're not going to let that happen we're not going to let taiwan go i don't understand how to calculate it all and what answer i get. i took calculus but it's been a while. >> the add if i admiral just got appointed to be chief of naval operations he's currently the commander of the pacific fleet which runs about 60% of our navy. he said the chinese have spent the last decade building their navy to a point where now they exceed the number of ships that the u.s. navy has. they have about 350 ships, the

u.s. has 330 they only have two aircraft carriers one is an old junker they both run on diesel. we have 11 that run on nuclear they are aggressively building their navy i've been rereading churchill's famous book "the gathering storm" and remember our defense secretary lloyd austin has absolutely begged the chinese to put a fail safe line of communication in between our militaries the chinese refuse to put a line of communication in. and as their economic and milit militaristic belligerence continues, we need these fail saves in place they're not operating that way economically or militarily

it is clear as day that xi jinping is planning to move militaristically over taiwan the taiwanese know it, we know it we're hoping it doesn't happen just like with hitler and his crew, i know that sounds bombastic but i'm telling you that history rhyming right now and unfortunately i think we're headed to a very dark place. >> all right, kyle we will end it there >> end on a high note. >> end it there and plan to speak again in the next couple of weeks thanks >> thank you >> coming up, is fomo keeping workers from unplugging their vacations or not taking time-out at all you can get the best of "squawk box" ioun r daily podcast.

after the july 4th holiday, m many workers may have a dilemma. sharon is here with the resent data showing the importance to unplug to reduce burnout do they really want us to unplug >> while the pandemic has changed the way people work, it

has change also the way people think about their time away from work more than half, 55%, say they stay connected to work with 17% saying they stay fully connected on vacation. now, the benefits of paid time off are well documented with employees reporting overall better mental health, increased job satisfaction and being more engaged and productive when they return experts say company leaders should encourage workers to take time to unplug by taking time to unplug themselves and by making clear how the work will get done when they're gone. >> work with your employees to let them know if something is truly critical and you really need them to respond how you will get in touch with them while they're on vacation. and other than that, we've got to encourage our employees to,

you know, identify people who can make the decision while they're gone >> while some organizations are giving company-wide holidays in addition to vacation days to help workers truly unplug, an estimated 20% of private sector workers in the u.s. have no paid vacation time, courtney. >> let's say you want to get away, though recently i took a trip to florida. we go to the same place every your with my family. the cost of getting down there is so much higher this year. is that having an impact on people's ability and desire to go somewhere >> absolutely. a third of workers said they can't afford to take time off because travel is too expensive. there are ways to take time away from work, unplug, staycation is not a bad idea be away from work, away from the emails it takes at least eight to ten

days to truly decompress, relax, recharge away from the workplace before coming back >> wow, eight to ten days. that's a long time but it also takes some time to get back in the swing of things. >> you have the work week off and you have the weekends before and after but half of that weekend is spent trying to decompression, the other half is spent reading in so you're ready to start monday morning. >> or trying to get back from where you went because strtraven such a nightmare >> try getting up at 3:30 and -- >> and all those small violins out there. and you never get used to it >> coming up, vacation is over

for government economic data and for steve liesman. b joess claims and the employment report all on the way next oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

welcome back to "squawk box. the fed minutes from the june meeting are going to be released this afternoon wow. and the markets will get several key pieces of data on labor leading up to friday's employment report. wait a minute. there's an employment report this friday? >> this friday >> yup first friday >> there has to be because we're well into -- let's get to steve liesman with more i thought they'd take you, steve. i'm talking to you what's going on? >> you're right, joe there is an employment report this friday. and we got the minutes this afternoon. markets hoping the fed can shed light on a fed that wants to hike two more times and they're looking for a friday jobs report they keep believing is going to show down but just won't kick. future markets have almost fully priced in july

they have raised a chance of a second hike but they remain skeptical on average two-thirds of the fomc members forecast the second hike and hope the minutes can provide clarity on just how are they or if there's a sense if they can be dissuaded a slowing jobs market could help the case economists see payroll gains slowing to a still high level of 240,000 but the unemployment rate dipping from 3.6 to 3.7 ukg sees strength in hiring. still correlating that number does, to an job trend number wall street forecasts have consistently undershot the reality of the strong jobs market we did some research over the holiday. the jobs consensus has been below the government's report

for 13 straight months, light by 111,000 a month. wall street has forecast 2.6 million jobs than were actually created. the fed's forecast for two more hikes says they may not believe they've done enough yet to cool the hot job market joe? >> all right, steve. i was looking, what are we expecting exactly so i can start worrying about it immediately? >> 240,000 all of those jobs being created is the reason for you to worry, joe. one other observation, we talked about it this morning, the kind of tough stance being taken by the unions and these strikes out there, that's another sort of indication that at least those guys on the labor side of negotiation don't see the labor market weakening >> okay. and do we want wages to go up or do we not want wages to go up at

this point i guess i'm torn really i'm conflicted >> well, if you're on the capital side of the equation, joe, then you care about the fed raising rates, then you do not want wages to go up. however, if you're on the labor side of the equation and your wages have lagged by inflation for many, many months, you would love for them to go up while inflation is coming down -- how do you like my air charts here -- your real wages and standard of living goes up if inflation is falling and your wages are rising, especially if it's a result of productivity. >> did you have a gig over the weekend? >> no, no. i've been to a couple gigs i saw dead and company a couple times. >> john maher there in. >> he was there. f fantastic band >> were they in town

>> they were in boston where i was. it'ses f it'ses it's the finale tour. they're playing great. >> have they played boulder? >> they just played boulder last night. >> in folsom >> yeah. >> that would be amazing >> my friend wrote me and said we should have gone to bolder. that would be great. and i said, yeah, we should be 20, too, and we'd not have jobs. >> i said enough of the steve with the jobs stuff. >> we will continue this conversation right now more on the economy and the fed. cam harvey is professor of finance at duke university cam, it's great to see you

if you're jay powell, what kind of jobs number do you actually want to see this friday? do you really want to see employment go down >> it's really inexplicable to me we're worried about 240,000 print. it's not the 240,000, it's how the fed will interpret it. and somehow in their mind they're thinking that they need to focus on jobs, yet if you look at the inflation data, the main driver of inflation is shelter. and shelter has been weakening, coming down, rents year over year are down and that's a third of the cpi and 40% of the personal consumption expenditure deflator on top of that, the previous print was 4% year over year. but the next inflation print will drop the very influential june 22 giant inflation print.

so if we have the same inflation that we had last month that was 0.1%, the year-over-year drops from 4% to 2.7 and even if we have a large print like 0.4, we go from 4 to 3% so you put these data together and why are we focusing on the labor market why is it so important to essentially increase unemployment when most of the job is already done? >> you think that jay powell has not internalized the message that you're sending right now? >> he is not and it even is worse i said that inflation, the most important component is shelter and indeed -- well, 65% of the last print was due to shelter. and shelter is running at 7.2%

annualized rate and we all know that's not realistic that's a lagging indicator so the most recent numbers, rentals, year over year, are flat or down so this stuff will come into the inflation rate in the future dp look at the producer price index. a year ago 11.1% today it's running at 1.1% that's a drop of ten percentage points again, these are important leading indicators of inflation and it's, again, inexplicable to me why the fed isn't looking at these data and just focused on that 240,000 -- >> if you're right, how quickly can you get to 2%? >> well, again, 65% is shelter that is coming down. it's going to drip down and i think we can get to the 2% range within six to nine months.

>> so if we follow along on steve liesman's reporting and looking at the proobability of rate hike coming up, was the pause long enough in policy to do what was fed was trying to do to maintain inflation? >> we don't need a pause, we need a termination of the rate hike i said this in january looking at the inflation data, beyond just looking at jobs, inflation is going in the right direction. it will continue to go in the right direction. it will have likely a two-handle in terms of the nks release. i think we should focus on that data and if we hike again and again, we increase the probability of a hard landing recession. and we don't need a recession right now. so we're on the right track for

the goal of 2% or around 2% and a recession is unnecessary it's a self-inflicted wound. it's a known bull. >> cam, it's an interesting take and a lot of people are trying to figure this out on all sides. we very much appreciate you being with us and offering your p perspective on it. we will see what happens later this week. >> you were paying attention >> you was laser >> that's the same as jeremy siegel >> my perspective hasn't been that he's right or wrong my perspective was that jay powell was going to think that's wrong and keep going >> we saw how they don't ever think about what's ahead when they stay at zero for too long when they have no idea about inflation. why would they think about what's ahead now if they're just looking at what's already behind they can't their crystal ball is no better

than anyone else's >> they're popping the z-pack and they're like i feel better but i want fin ish the pack >> walmart and target are launching big promotions in this big mmsuer retail value. is the consumer ready to spend, next on "squawk box.

welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at the futures on this wednesday morning after the holiday here dow up 177 points and nasdaq off about 87, 80 points and s&p 500 off about 24 points right about now. amazon ceo putting its hollywood studio under the spending microscope, asking studio executives for detailed budgets on some of prime's biggest shows. the studio spent $7 billion on original shows only netflix and disney spend more on original streaming content. amazon has opinibeen on a cost cutting campaign shutting down projects deemed unnecessary. >> our next guest says the retail sales are higher than

prepandemic levels joining us is the retail analyst at forester research it's great to have you here. obviously prime day is coming here on july 11th and 12th initially it was thought prime day was started to spur sales in the summer where things were a little quieter and to continue that amazon fly wheel of getting more prime subscribers signed up is that still the goal how important is prime day to amazon if invested in amazon, which has so many verticles, do i care >> i would say it came out of the singles day promotions that ali baba and other chinese merchants did and it was essentially a manufactured sale day that if you can get enough offers and promotions, can you gen generate huge, huge sales.

last year it johgenerated about1 billion. it's several times larger than normal it building relationships with a lot of its third-party sellers and it generates energy that it uniquely has every retailer tries to compete. last year we evaluated like a hundred merchants and serve of them had prime day offers but none generate the volume that amazon does. >> in a year where inflation is still running fairly hot, even if the rate is coming down, prices are still elevated for consumers. so is a prime day in competing retail sales more important? could it generate a little bit more heat this time around for other retailers as well, for consumers trying to score those deals that he haven't had in a while? >> yeah, i think that definitely

amazon will do well every year it's their biggest day of the year ever until the holiday season eclipses it but it does very, swrel and it works really, really hard to get those very compelling offers. as far as other merchants, i'm not so sure the other merchants are even able it compete they don't put as much effort into it and source the unique deals that amazon does if you don't source those deals, you're not going to get them other merchants tend to focus on the holiday season their prime day sales event is a black monday, not july >> when the retail program ends who will be hurt on the flip sid, e, did we see

more who benefited >> i wouldn't say it was just the student loans. it was everything from the fact that people were saving through the pandemic, it was the stimulus checks, i mean, all of those things combined, higher wages, they were collectively factors that led to consumers spending more in retail. now, how much is this going to hurt retail? i think that what we are seeing and what we've been seeing over the last few months is a slowdown and essentially, you know, consumers almost feeling saturated with what they are buying or trading into other categories so we're certainly seeing more spend in sectors like travel and that's not helping the retail industry at all. so we've been seeing this flat lining i think watchers may say that, oh, they'll blame the student loan issues but the truth is is that this has been trending for some time, i expect retail to

have a tougher overall 2023 than it did in 2022 and, you know, kind of that's just due to the fact that consumers are spending in far more diverse categories now than they were in 2021 and 2022 >> interesting take of course. d up being a bit of an excuse for retailers as things may get tougher in the back half of the year sucharita, thank you for joining us coming up, we count down to the opening bell as we head to break, check out bitcoin and crypto curtacurrencs this morning above $31,000 over the weekend, up for ltl aite while, but down today. "squawk box" will be right back.

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we're just not too far from the opening bell 57 minutes, and trading is going to resume after it was, you know, on july 3rd, wasn't even a full session markets have had a stellar year, but june -- or july's not starting that great, and now solidly higher from the october lows for more on the markets, let's bring in mona, senior investment strategist at edward jones and

jj kinahan, ig north american ceo, and mona, let's start with you and get to jj and ask him whether a noncapitulation with the vicks means this is still just part of a trading range i'll ask you that first, mona. if you've missed the nasdaq, 32%, you buy now or do you expect it to be in a trading range in both the nasdaq and maybe the s&p as well? >> yeah, thanks, joe look, this has certainly been a stellar first half of the year the s&p is up over 14%, and historically, when the s&p does start off over 10% in the first half of the year, that does bode well for the second half of the year investors have had some reasons for optimism economic data has held up better than expected. inflation continues to show signs of moderation, and even the fed, while they've told us they may have one or two hikes left, we're certainly closer to the end than we are to the beginning. we're seeing markets participate accordingly. we're seeing a little bit of

broadening of participation, areas like industrials, materials, so typical cyclical sectors and even small caps, which tend to lead on the way up, are showing signs of life again. we'd be cautious to extrapolate the strong first half to straight line higher in the second half. we would expect bouts of volatility, especially if we do get some cooling in economic growth, which some of the signals are pointing to. but certainly, we used those periods of volatility as opportunities to position, we think, for a broader-based rally in equities and even in the fixed income space, we think bonds are starting to look attractive, especially ahead of a potential fed pivot in 2024. >> mona, as usual, if the economy cools, you don't know whether that's bullish or bearish, right you would think for earnings, it would be bearish, but for the fed, it would be bullish, so it's all bass-ackwards let me get to jj if we're in a new bull market and the s&p adds to its gains,

are we able to do that without the vicks having made a capitulation bottom by trading at 30 or 40? i mean, has that happened before could it happen because it was so spread out that we made this really long sort of saucer bottom instead of a v-bottom is that possible >> it could happen, joe. it's so interesting, this is the rally that nobody's happy. it's really so interesting we continue to go higher, and everyone is just continuing to be worried, and so those are usually the type of rallies that can continue longer than you think. that all said, the vicks has been really got beaten up there at the end of may, early june, has kind of stayed down, but i think as we head into earnings, which, you know, we have employment this week then, we start earnings a week from friday. i think that you are probably going to see the vicks start to tick back up, because there still remains a lot of questions. the banks kick us off. we still have this strange

two-year, ten-year relationship in terms of rates, and so that's going to make it more difficult for banks to really kill it, so to speak we continue to get earnings that are good, but they beat these very low expectations, so as long as people are hesitant -- and we see that through our tasty trade client activity, and i think we're seeing that throughout the market, people are hesitant to be all in. as long as people continue to be hesitant, we can continue to go a bit higher, joe, and i think we can go higher with the vicks sort of creeping back to that 15 -- well, 17 to 20 level, i should say, because we're almost near 15 right now again. but you know, again, i just find it really interesting. as you said, bass-ackwards that's where we're at until we get clarity out of the fed everyone who was calling for us to have rate cuts by the end of the year, we're still at a 60% probability of a rate hike

>> i didn't know there was something besides bass-ackwards, but the other one, you can't say. i forget you're at tasty trade why don't you ever send those cr crumpets over? >> joe, when i come out there, i'm bringing them. >> mona, the magnificent seven, is that good or bad? does everyone catch up with them, or is it sort of got us all thinking the markets are up when the average stock isn't up that much? >> at the beginning of the year, there was a this narrow leadership where it was this magnificent seven trade. we didn't think that was a healthy sign when the rest of the 493 stocks in the s&p 500 are trading flat to down while seven are up 30 to 40%, really, we'd like to see a broadening of participation, but that broadening of participation, we think, only happens when the economy does re-emerge from any potential cooling and goes into a recovery mode, and that recovery phase

does tend to show, you know, leadership in areas that do include cyclicals, small caps, international. so, we do think that a healthier sign for the market would be a brotening of participation keep in mind, if that magnificent seven, if there's profit taking around it and the rest of the market doesn't catch up, that's where we could get our pullback in the market broadly. if we see a pullback in the second half of the year, we think it's because the seven slow down and the rest of the market doesn't catch up, but we think as we emerge into 2024, that's where you get that brotening of participation >> in ten seconds, jj, do you think we broaden out or do you think that's an indication that something is amiss >> what we've started to see is some of the energy stocks, our clients going toward those like

occidental or exxonmobil if we can catch fire, if you will, in sectors that have been beaten up, then i would agree with mona. i think it's going to be harder to do in the shorter term. >> thank you, jj courtney reagan, thank you >> great to see you. >> what time was your alarm clock set for? >> 3-something >> that's hideous. >> join us tomorrow. set your alarm clocks. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to squawk"squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange first full trading session of the second half and futures are weak on disappointing pmis around the world our road map begins with the global macro soft china data reviving growth concerns futures are slipping, investors awaiting