good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee at post nine of the new york stock exchange. setting the agenda, lori ca calvasina is with us marco papic is with us >> later on former jetblue ceo david neeleman talking some of the significant airline dlecline across the market. >> the third quarter this month of july, the dow is down by

about a quarter percent. s&p 500 basically unchanged. the nasdaq holding on to just a 1/10 of a percent gain here. of course, we had factory orders that undershot the deceleration from april and also looking ahead to fmoc minutes, that come out in just a couple of minutes. >> get a little color on that last meeting our next guest isn't quite bearish yet. her year-end target warning of worrisome market sentiment, focusing on the resiliency of markets going into an earnings season that will give us some clues on how the rest of the year will play out lori calvasina is here with us on set lori, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> you've got to feel pretty good about the range you've given the year so far. >> we've said all year -- first of all, our target was $4,100 for most of the year, we revised it to $4,250 we have basically three models that are kind of cautious and three models that are really bullish and $4,250 is right in the middle i put out a piece a couple of

weeks ago saying these are the top five charts that kept us constructive in the first half of the year. one is starting to get a little bit worrisome. that's our sentiment model >> so describe that. what's your calculus in terms of how it may or may not move your model from here. >> so it's the aaii net bull/bear indicator. everyone on wall street watches this it's a very reliable indicator you want to buy the market when you're at minus 10% or more in favor of the bears that's where we were to start the year and where we were after smbb but recently, it's been hitting at around 20% in favor of the bulls. when you start to hit 30% in favor of the bulls, you get a flat market and it's 50/50 as to whether or not you'll be up or down the fact that whether all of these investors are grudgingly getting bulled onboard with this rally, i wouldn't say they're bullish, but they're not bearish. >> they're losing their bearishness finally, after a

rip-roaring first half of the year i imagine that most of them are underwater how much of this pressure factors in, because you have a whole other host of investor who is may have called this perfectly and are saying, hey, you know what, this gain for the year, i'm down >> it's interesting. i talked to one person i know that was caught kind of flat-footed by this move in the first half of the year i talked to him a couple of weeks ago and he said, we'll have to start going to all of these meetings soon, talking about our second quarter performance and it's not going to be fun. really dregdading it there are a lot of conversations like that are starting to happen aren't wall street a lot of my conversations with investors have been, this market has been resilient, why? explain it to me so it's -- i think it's tough. >> so what do you tell them at this point you can say the sentiment indicator indicates this, but you have a lot of other points in your notes indicating that companies are better off, that management teams may be better equipped to handle crisis, that cash on the balance sheet is good, debt is there, but it's

levera long-term debt, so how do you weigh these factors? >> this market is not crazy. it's quite rationale some of those reasons are still in tact, some of those reasons are starting to break down it feels like it's a little bit murkier tactically, but i tell people, if we end up at $4,600 at the end of the year, we're not going to sit here and say this market was crazy in the second half. i'll say, shame on me, i should have paid more attention to my more constructive models that's our valuation in earnings model, by the way. and we've told people, we have to watch this sentiment indicator very closely if i say talk to a client once a quarter, right, and i'm talking to them now, it's probably going to flip to the red by the time we talk again. we'll have to see where everything else is, but i think you just have to take it day by day, week by week, and i think you have to look at sector opportunities. we talk a lot about health care right now, there's not a lot macro going on in health care. it's cheap, improving earnings provisions if we get a little bit of an air

pocket, it will help you out we'll try to help people identify those types of opportunities. >> i'm trying to think of ideas that developed in the first half housing, infrastructure, ai, japan. do you see new ideas developing in the second half are we just going to build on the ones we -- >> i think we'll continue to build on them. >> and i'll tell you on the ai point, i really fight with people on this i'm not a big, thematic person, facts, figures, layers, geography, sectors, but the ai theme, it's a misperception. there's this view that ai dominated the entire first half. you have to differentiate between the ai-related stocks and ai driving the market. transcript activity, ai only burst on to the scene in may and june it wasn't driving stocks back in june it was anticipation of fed interest rate cuts of tech stocks back in june. yes, maybe some of those stocks are a little extended, but the ai theme seems very early. and there's a paucity of secular growth stories out there we talk a lot about the shape of the recovery last year

right now consensus estimates for a little under 1% on real gdp next year. guess what, growth stocks do well when economic growth sluggish that is why everyone is fascinated with ai right now it's one of the few secular growth themes out there. we suring is another we're telling people, you may not be overweight industrials right now, but certainly don't go underweight or sell out of them right now >> you're putting on your old tech hat from years ago. a good time to have those bona fides. >> i know, thanks. >> lori, thanks. let's get to washington. the fed releasing the minutes from its june meeting this afternoon. cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman joins me now from d.c. hey, steve >> markets hoping the fed minutes can shed some light on a decision at the last meeting not to hike, but the forecast for two more hikes and they're bracing for a jobs report coming friday that they keep believing is going to show some slowing eventually, but keeps defying expectations here are the probabilities futures markets almost fully priced in a 25 basis point hike

for july, with an 85% probability, traders have raised the possibility of a second high to 38%, but still around 50. still some skepticism out of there. two-thirds of the fmoc members forecast that second hike, one hike or more, and hope that the minutes can provide some clarity on how hell-bent they are, or if there's a sense that they can be dissuaded by something like payroll growth, as the economy cease payroll gains climbing to a still high 240,000, but down from 339,000 in may. unemployment rates dipping by a tenth. dave gilbertson writes, the longer we see continued strength in activity and continued tightness in hiring, the more we would expect the next surprise to include wage inflation starting to creep back up late this year into early next year maybe june is that month the job market finally weakens, but the fed's forecast, they're not so sure they've cooled the jobs market enough, guys >> are we reading wean the

lines, steve, for any clues that maybe three more is in the cards? we know at least two was what was telegraphed when the fed had its meeting and released results, but here we have the final transcript will we see three? >> you just can't be satisfied, melissa. we've got enough on our plate trying to get to two they got the one baked in. they're sort of the part of the way to a second one. so three, three would get us where? three would get up up towards 6% i know that there are at least a couple fed members who were in that 6% camp, so there may be some talk about that but remember, there's this differential between the level they want to get to and the speed they want to get there what we're reading is whether or not some are in more of a hurry than others. it seems like we might be sort of falling into this idea of every other meeting that the fed will be hiking, and sort of hike, let's take a look around, wait a little bit, hike again, take a look around, and see if

we have finally gotten to the place that things are cooling enough that the fed can be confident that the fed is heading back towards target. >> i only ask you that because the jobs market became very strong, and we know that they want to stick to 2% inflation, as a target. you know, he telegraphed that in s cintra, so something has to break, something has to give there. >> i think that's right. and when you talk about 6%, there is an argument in that, which is, how tight should the fed be on a real or inflation-adjusted basis if you take the 4%, one-year inflation expectations, subtract out the funds rate, you know, we're 1% and change tight now, but you could argue, given the strength in the job market, given the strength in the economy, that the fed ought to be tighter than that it's looking at a year-end funds rate on a real basis that's 1.7 to 2%, depending upon when you look at it

so the fed would still have work to do to get to that place, depending upon what happens flto inflation. >> steve, thanks after the break, china fighting back against semiconductor curbs with new export controls of its own the exact to the chip trade is next plus, do not miss joey chestnut. he's going to join us later this hour a weather delay wasn't enough to stop him at coney island yesterday. 62 hot dogs plus buns. "squawk on the street" rerns after this i'm taking a two-year business course. i've been studying a lot. i've been producing and directing for over 50 years. it's a very detailed thing and the pressure's all on me. i noticed i really wasn't quite as sharp as i was. my boss told me about prevagen and i started taking it. i feel sharper. my memory's a lot better. it just works. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

welcome back european markets set to close lower in a few moments pmis did show that euro zone business output contracted in june, but the story abroad is largely about u.s./china tensions ahead to escalate ahead of the treasury secretary's trip to that country. our seemya mody has more on how her trip may impact economic relations, as now we're hearing about some more export controls this morning hey, seema >> that's right. experts including the counsel on foreign relations remain less optimistic on janet yellen's upcoming trip, telling cnbc that expectations are low as the treasury secretary attempts to restore bilateral economic relations, pointing to the ongoing security dialogue between the united states and china that has badly lacked progress others highlighting that while yellen will be meeting with a number of chinese officials, at this point, her agenda does not

include a hitdown with chinese president xi jinping weil foreign policy events don't always impact global markets, portfolio managers we spoke to say it has, in addition to the country's economic issues, the latest data on china's services sector showing pmi declining in the month of may the kweb etf down 26% this year, its worst first half since 2016. that has prompted a number of strategists to change its view on china with the head of gm has gone from bullish to to the very constructive and a potential fed rate hike will push a dollar higher. on the valuation debate, worth noting that china's mainline index trading at 8.4 times forward earnings goldman's target is ten times. they're not expecting stocks there to vastly outperform in the second half of this year now, in addition to easing u.s./china tensions, yellen is also expected to address china's new export control ban over raw materials, which we know has

taken aim at the u.s. semi-conductor industry. melissa? >> seema, thanks seema mody let's dive deeper into china with our next guest who says shine markets are poised for a breakout marco, great to have you with us >> thanks so much, melissa great to be with you >> i'm sure you heard seema's report why are you bullish? and is it predicated on the notion that beijing might have a stimulus program in sight. >> the investment bank community got china massively wrong since q4 of last year. first, they were extremely bearish, didn't think zero covid could be pivoted from within days china proved them wrong. it pivoted away from its policy. and then everybody turned massively bullish, completely forgetting what ails china is the overleveraged private sector their households are extremely indebted what china needs to do is pick up some of that leverage, put it on the public side, and we expect that to happen over the next several quarters.

they're going to replicate basically the sequence of events that we in the u.s. used from 2010 to 2016 first cuts in interest rates, then qe, then fiscal and i think that's more important than geopolitics or chips. >> statement, let's say they got everything right in terms of the call away from covid zero. msc china was down 6% in the first half of the year it isn't like you would have got a great return you're still down 6% what do you see picking up chinese equities in the second half >> the investment banks were way too bullish, thinking that it's just zero covid. just removing zero covid was going to be enough it's not they need much more stimulus on the real estate side, but they also need to do basically fiscal stimulus over the next 6 to 12 months and i think what we're seeing is chinese policy makers starting to be pushed into that direction. they're starting to talk about

like japanfication of china, the things that are permanent and secular, and fight against that with more significant stimulus what i would be doing is watching those stimulus announcements, more than like yellen's visit, because i agree with your report, which is that it's very difficult to have any movement in u.s./china relationship >> do you think the next couple of years are going to be -- in terms of u.s./china relations, are going to be more or less hawkish than you think consensus is >> i think probably less hawkish than the consensus, because the consensus is basically we're near world war iii however, at the same time, i don't see how we actually move before the u.s. election and you saw this, blinken made the visit, very high-profile visit. a lot of hope of talk. and president biden made the statement about president xi, which i don't think was a mistake. i mean, that was for domestic purposes in the u.s. i think u.s./domestic politics is driving this rivalry.

and it's very difficult for president biden to pivot in any significant way before he secures his second term. >> so does it not matter what u.s./china relations are for your call to be bullish chinese equities does it matter do you start saying, that is a risk and it should be embedded in the valuation there would be a discount? >> well, so what i would say, melissa, is that it has mattered it has mattered massively over the last 18 to 24 months for example, performance of indian equities is in many ways related to the large pools of capital out of china so geopolitics has played its role but incriminate, it's already in the past now, all investors who are going to sell china because of u.s./china tensions have kind of sold it. what's waiting on the side llin are non-u.s. investors, and they're more than willing to buy chinese assets, if they see that

our thesis is right. what's my thesis there will be stimulus in china. so, you know, those folks, middle eastern, large pools of capital, european, southeast asian, they don't care about yellen's visit or u.s. policy at all. they care about whether beijing stimulating or not >> so are you seeing in-flows from these areas, wanting to invest in china, asking you to -- >> no, no. because they're waiting for policy makers in china to actually do something. and everyone's lost a lot of faith in policy makers in china, because of what happened in q1, as you pointed out, zero covid ended, nothing happened. and i think that that's where, you know, chinese policy makers have to prove that they are sensitive to the fact that what they're facing is secular stagnation they're facing the decades that america experienced last cycle so they need to put against secular stagnation, the way that the u.s. did, which is interest rate cuts, eventually pushed into qe, but they don't have

seven years to figure that out they need that in the next six months, and because of political constraints in china, we expect them too that over the next 6 to 12 months. >> marco, thanks coming up later this hour, air travel hit a july 4th record, but cancellations and flight disruptions still plaguing that industry can the airlines turn things around ahead of a busy summer season and we are keeping an eye on coin base. piper sandler downgrading to a neutral. and you can read more about this in the 4-plus percent move in coin base on cnbc. don't go away. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

a couple hours into trading, we continue to shave away at some of these opening losses let's get post-to-post with bob pisani >> the internals are much weaker than it looks. we open 4-1 declining-to-advancing stocks.

and with a new high on the s&p, you would think we would have a nice new crop of new highs out there, but less than two dozen new highs on the new york stock exchange that's not very impressive, and a lot of them are old names like walmart that have been around for a while. everyone's talking about broadening out the rally in the second half. we've all been talking about it for weeks. i just don't see it. that's part of the problem that i have look at the stalwarts and the standard big names if you're going to get a global expansion, freeport will be part of it. it's one of the biggest copper producers in the world it's up 3% on the year it has done nothing for weeks on end. the china expansion trade has fizzled a little bit that's playing some kind of part where's the expansion. same thing with all the energy stocks chevron is down close to 13% on the year the last time chevron mounted any kind of rally was way back in march, and that's when crude had a bit of a rally for about two weeks. other than that, energy stocks, this is another group you'll want to see expand out, have been dead in the water all throughout the year.

then they keep talking about the more defensive stocks. so you go simple names, go to the stalwarts and the consumer staples group,oca-cola, which has done nothing at all this year. coke is down 4% year-to-date and coke is actually getting cheaper. coke has always traded at a bit of a premium to the s&p 500. so if the s&p is trading at 20 times forward, coca-cola will often trade at 22, 23, 24 times forward multiples. it's actually getting cheaper now. its relation to the s&p has been getting cheaper and cheaper. now it's only 1.1, 1.2 times what the multiple of the s&p is. it's 22 times forward earnings around there you would think at those kinds of levels, it's discounted compared to its usually valuation against the s&p, people would start jumping in. no again, you get this problem, carl, where we all think that the markets should be broadening out, if there's really kind of stability, and we have a soft landing. yet there's decided lack of enthusiasm for equities out

there. there were outflows in technology this year, carl so far in the first six months, o outflows about 1, 2, 3% outflows that's significant given fact that all of a sudden we had 30% gains in technology and people still are enthusiastic you see today the kind of action that we're getting we have no real buying enthusiasm, but we don't have any real selling pressure here and so we're at a pibit of an inflection point, waiting as to whether or not you can see there'll be some sort of expansion, or the advanced decline line expansion in the second half of the year. >> we'll get a couple more clues later this week. >> let's get a news update with contessa brewer. >> anger sent angry demonstrators to the streets in the occupied west bank crowds of people crashing with palestinian authorities and accused them of weakness after the israeli military's two-day operation in jenin israeli military officials say they targeted infrastructure and weapons depots

at least 12 people were killed in the operation most have been confirmed as palestinian militant fighters. the secret service is now investigating a white powdery substance discovered in a work area at the white house. sources tell nbc news the powder tested positive for cocaine in a preliminary field test the baggy was found in the west wing sunday night during an inspection and las vegas is pushing the entertainment world to new boundaries the sphere at the venetian resort made its debut, or at least least, its exterior did. it's the largest l.e.d. screen on earth look at that isn't that remarkable! you u2 will kick off concerts in november they got a rough start, because fans complain they got tickets that were obstructed view seats. i could watch that video for hours, i think i think it's just remarkable and it's hard to do something

remarkable and groundbreaking in a place like las vegas, where there's so much that's remarkable and groundbreaking. >> it says a lot if you can even stuff people in las vegas. contessa, thanks that's pretty cool after the break, can the s&p continue to outperform in the second half? we'll take a look at a few key technical levels that traders are tcng twahihat may help predict where stocks are headed. we'll be right back. advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight.

welcome back with news regarding june and q2 auto sales. general motors out with its q2 sales. -- >> so we'll get back to phil lebeau in a couple of minutes when we iron out that audio. we are seeing gm sales move higher by about 0.8% phil will bring us some of the details a little bit later on. meantime, the s&p continues to soar above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. our next guest says the technicals are looking good, honing in on health care, the sector that has continued to act weaker than the rest of the market atypical for an economy about to enter a recession. joining us now, renaissance macro research chairman jeff degraf >> you've actually been in the bullish camp since november of last year, which i'm sure is a difficult position to take, but you're looking right now so you're saying that things still look pretty constructive at this point going into the

second half? >> yeah, melissa, i think we're in pretty good shape the trends are good. the momentum started to pick up a little bit we're seeing an improvement in breadth. all of those things are important and should be able to propel the s&p to 4,600. i will say i'm a little concerned here recently with the rise in the ten-year yield if get that above 4%, i do think that that starts to challenge the s&p 500 in terms of alternate cash flows and returns. so that's one area of concern. and then the other is just what we're seeing from seasonality. historically, the end of this month is kind of the peak for the bullishness from a seasonal perspective, and that then enters into that late third quarter, where seasonality tends to be the roughest so i think we've got a decent little patch here to continue the gains, but we have to keep an eye on those yields so i think that's a potential impediment to the s&p. >> how does that yield turn look in and of itself, jeff >> i mean, if i just take a step back and look at yields from a

technical perspective, it looks like they're going higher. i do have to be mindful and respectful of that but, you know, is it a disaster? is it 5% or 6% or, you know, some of the big numbers that are out there. i don't think so i think it's probably somewhere around 425, but at that level, some of the work that we've done with our yield impact model, et cetera, does start to push against the s&p. so that would be some concern for us >> yeah, 39 this morning is going to take out the june highs. jeff, some of your tweets have suggested that the bears are going to need to start pivoting to some degree what do you think they are thinking as we go into the second half and do you sort of suspect that we'll see some towel throwing >> yeah, i mean, we've seen it a little bit, not en masse, but certainly, it's been pretty hard, once you got through 4,200 in terms of levels for the s&p, it was pretty hard to justify the bears' positioning i know there's an earnings story out there, et cetera, and there's some concern there, but that chart that you had up earlier was important, which is

health care. the relative performance of health care is very close to making a new relative strength low. that's not thing you would expect to see going into recession. you would expect it to start making a relative strength high. over the holiday, we see the consumer discretionary relative strength made a confirming high. those are pretty atypical of going into recession and i think the recession bears that are out there have continually had to push that call back and we think it probably has to be pushed back for at least the remainder of 2023 >> jeff, what's the risk/reward at this point. seeing that yields are a stone's throwaway from 4% and that's sort of the level that could provide some resistance for the s&p 500, what's the upside if we remain on the en-year yield below four, and what's the downside if we go above. >> that's a great question, melissa. 4600 is the upside in our view and that's if we keep yields below that 4% range. if we start breaking above that, obviously, it has an impact on how far those yields go.

but if it's within our guess work, which is a peak right around 450, then you're talking about 4,200 on the s&p if we start getting below those numbers and start to chip away at the identification of that uptrend, and so that would become a problem for us, but i think -- i think that we'll pull back i think there's a risk to that that's still within the context of an up trend and that's an important eprecondition >> are you spending a lot of time talking about the inflationary dilemma that europe is in and is that contagious >> i don't think so. look, we listen to the charts and watch what's happening in the marketplace. i think china is actually going end to up being a huge help in terms of the inflation data. the work that we do has inflation in a pretty decent zone the market cares about better or worse, not good or bad as long as that trajectory, which is apparent here in the states, anyway, continues to be

better, and that's what it's been since this time last year, it hasn't been good, but it's been better. that will be helpful that's a big part of what we end up seeing. if it ceases to get better, we could have a problem but i don't think that that's the case we're in a pretty decent zone in terms of that data and more important to us, the way the market is respondenting to that. and i think that's going to be important as we go forward if we see energy relative performance or material relative performance to pick up, we have something to worry about particularly with those yields if they're above 4%. at this point, we're still keeping the powder dry >> jeff, thanks. let's get back to phil lebeau with the gm numbers. phil >> we knew numbers would be strong up 18.8% in the second quarter what's more interesting, when

you look at what the company is saying about average transaction price, up $1482 and they have flat inventory and plat incentives i think this bodes well for men they report their earnings june sales up #% one last note, gm says that it expects the industry sales rate to top $16 million for the second quarter i can't remember the last time we had $16 million for a sales rate for a quarter i think q2 of '21, but we're double checking that gives you some indication of the demand that's out there right now. >> there's implications behind that as well phil, thanks still to come this morning, amazon's andy jassy wants some answers from hollywood and their extreming service about their spending habits. >> plus, watching netflix after getting an upgrade at goldman sachs with the price target 9% below monday's closing price, the stock is at a 52-week high

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amazon ceo andy jassy's two-year ten year has so far been defined as a cost-cutting spree, slashing jobs and prospects. he's now taking a look at the hollywood studio that's the focus of this morning's tech check with deedra bosa >> hard apply surprising that andy jassy is looking to streaming as a way to cut costs. amazon studios has spent tens of

p billions of dollars on original cone tent, culminating with "lord of the roads" and "citadel," two of the most expensive shows of all time. many of their biggest series failed to crack nielson's top-ten most streamed programs in the u.s. and they rarely enter that prestige tv conversation jassy has cut back on spending in other areas like devices and telehealth and he has also overseen the largest job cuts at amazon in his history, but it is important to note that this report from bloomberg does not say that jassy is pulling back, but that he is taking a hard look at the finances of it back in 2021, jeff bezos, that was his last shareholder meeting as ceo he was asked if amazon had found the fourth pillar of its p business, the first three being ecommerce, prime and cloud he did hint at a few contenders. they were amazon alexa and

amazon studios so there are four characteristics, he also said earlier in 2014, of these pillars. he said one, customers have got to love it two, it has to have the ability to grow to a very large size three, it's got to be durable. and four, it has strong returns on capital so neither devices or amazon studios looking like that fourth pillar, especially when you think about strong return on capital right now. of course, jassy's tenure at ceo has been different than bay zost that may have to do more with the macro environment, the bigger picture than jassy's actual ambitions he worked closely with bezos for decades and he pioneered the hugely lucrative high-growth cloud business, which we don't know how quickly it became profitable, guys i guess it makes you wonder, how much patience do they have for something like amazon studios to burn through money but also, maybe, has an important -- or is an important signal for the rest of the streaming space that's contending with a lot of the same questions on profitability.

>> it kind of flies in the face of the notion that, oh, amazon has this huge money-making goliath called awz that can subsidize all kind of businesses losing money >> aws being high-margin cloud business but that growth has come down over the last year and a half or so, because of that slower macro environment. so, that profitability has also been squeezed somewhat so less money to play around with, new businesses like devices, like studios, it changes the finances of the entire organization. and as we know, carl and melissa, ecommerce doesn't have great margins, either. advertising is an interesting one. this has sort of come out of nowhere. it's also high-margin, more profitable business. but again, andy jassy, his tenure has been marked by cost cutting. very different than the bezos era of spending at all costs to grow and enter new businesses. >> going to be fascinating if and when they turn on the jets again. deirdre, great look at the hollywood portion, though.

deirdre bosa when we come back, jetblue's founder and former ceo david neeleman is joining us, now running breeze airways we'll talk about who's to blame for some of these persistent flight delays and cancellations, the airlines or the faa? we'll discuss it and speaking of weather delays, the nathan's hot dog contest had to be pushed back several hours yesterday as storms rolled through coney island, but it wasn't enough to top stop joey chestnut from capturing another title. he'll join us in just a few minutes. don't go away. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today.

welcome back despite a rocky start to the summer travel season, marked by weather disruptions and faa challenges, fourth of july weekend did break some travel records with friday being the busiest air travel day in history with the tsa screening more than 2.88 million passengers airline stocks remaining resilient, as well, with the etf outperforming the s&p by a wide margin this year can the demand hold up through the rest of the summer >> joining us this morning, breeze airways ceo, david neeleman, the founder and former ceo of jetblue david, great to see you again. i've just got to ask you about the spiciness of the back and forth between the likes of the transportation secretary and united where is this all going? >> you know,it's -- it's a difficult situation, because, you know, we as airlines want to take care of our customers we want to be able to give them

their destinations we know everybody has holiday plans and they have family reunions and, you know, you have weather and then going into the summer, the airlines in the new york area cut their service in anticipation of this, but, you know, i think what scott kirby was saying in his letter to his employees is, you know, the faa has done a better job in the past handling at this. weather happens in summertime, but i think he expressed a lot of frustration, because we know that the staffing levels are below where they should be and that's where the levels were cut to begin with. and thankfully, we don't fly to any of those congested new york airports, but i feel -- i feel for everybody, because, you know, it's not -- you don't want your travel plans disrupted. and it's really, the airlines are doing their best, but when you have your arrival rate cut by 50%, there's just nothing you can do about it but cancel flights. >> david, when you were the ceo of jetblue, did you ever take a

private jet when the weather roiled ore people's travel plans? scott kirby is getting a lot of blowback for taking a private plane, which he paid for himself, when other people were stuck all over >> scott's a really great guy. he's a good friend of mine i'm sure maybe he had a family emergency or something he had to get out for. i don't want to comment on that. i just know that he cares a lot about his people and he cares a lot about his passengers and making sure they get to where they want to be. >> i guess the bottom line is, whether it's faa personnel or pilots or flightattendants or getting new deliveries, none of that seems to be in the offing in terms of the ability to raise capacity does that mean that fares, given steady demand, are not going anywhere down anytime soon >> well, it's interesting. because if you look at 2019, and then you compare that revenue to 2022, pre-covid, post-covid, the

revenue for the airlines was almost identical, but there were $130 million less people traveling. fares are higher they have to be, because fuel is up and the other challengers, wages are up but we're still offering really low fares. a $31 fare still going on until midnight tonight for the month of august. there are ways to keep fares low and we're trying to do that the best we can. certainly the trend on airfares are up >> when would you be concerned airlines act the way they did in the past when demand was huge, increase capacity and take on even more debt i think for airline investors they like the outperformance airlines have given them this year they're concerned airlines will return to their spendy ways of the past >> well, there's constraints on the industry the inability to grow right now coming from a couple of different places

the manufacturers are having a difficult time building airports we're going to get less air mrins this year than we were promised that's one side and then the constraints on hiring and training pilots and other people covid has kind of put a crimp on the labor market you just have to work harder and be better at it. people are doing a great job in that area. you can't just grow at will -- you can't buy a new airplane from boeing or airbus until 2028 and they're having a hard time delivering those that were ordered. >> i wonder if you ever see the environment returning where startups can pull a couple planes out of the desert, hire some pipe lots, get a new route into midway and start taking some share is the era of the startup over

>> i think so. a couple of airlines started recently it's not just air traffic control, it's the personnel that do the certification, line checks for pilots. all those things are tight at the faa. there needs to be better long-term planning air travel is such an important part of this economy and quality of life for people the faa needs to be accountable for that >> we have learned in the last few years how important it is, crucial, to the entire global economy. david, thanks. >> thank you for the time. when we come back, nathan's hot dog eating champ joey chestnut is here in the building don't go away.

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most days we get a check on

the state of the consumer. today we are checking in with the greatest consumer of all time to put his perspective. won his first hot dog eating title in 2007. amazon is up more than 3500. if he invested his first place winnings at those levels, that would buy a lot of beef. fresh off his 16th nathan's hot dog eating contest, joey chestnut is here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what a treat for us. welcome. good to see you. >> very happy to be here >> did the weather delay have any kind of mental die namic >> it was tough because they said it was canceled, and it was kind of emotional. oh, my god, two months of practice and training down the tube, but it all worked out. i was a little bit slow but i got the win. >> at this point, after all these years, is it sort of just

you know how to do it? you know the routine you know the pitfalls? it gets easier year after year >> competitive eating, there are no books written about it, all by trial and error even as i get older, i'm learning more about my body and new ways to push myself and new ways to make my body recover and i'm more in tune with my body. i'm definitely -- it's not easy. >> does it get harder and harder every year you consumed, as i understand it, 14 fewer hot dogs than your all-time record? >> i think the weather played a little bit of a role i'm still recovering from a ba injury last year i'm still doing physical therapy for my leg it gets harder, there's no way around it. but i know my body better, and i eventually -- i think next year i'll make a run at the record. >> are you beginning to think about how long you can do this >> no, it's negative energy. i'm going to do this thing -- itch the best job in the world i get to travel, eat, make

people happy and beat people i'm going to do this thing until somebody starts beating me. >> this is the question i have, you're a professional eater, right. so does it matter if you don't like the food you're competing in would you enter a contest eating a food you don't enjoy consuming? >> it's hard -- i work with a lot of sponsors and sometimes they ask me. i can't do that, guys. i'm sorry. i love competition and i love pushing myself if there's a food i don't like, i don't do it. >> as they always do, people send in questions for you. one, do you check your cholesterol, what's your workout routine, what do people want to know about you the most? >> how i feel afterwards >> how do you feel >> you get used to feeling like garbage. you talk to a football player after a game, they feel like garbage for a couple of days i will feel like garbage for a couple days after an eating contest.

that's life. you have to be willing to suffer >> do you eat salads in between to make up for what you consume? >> that's the first thing i eat. as soon as i can, i eat superhigh fiber, almost no carbs, no sugar. if i eat any carbs, the weight really stays on me really high fiber diet to get back to my normal weight >> you're a legend it's a treat meeting you and nice belt, by the way. >> this is really something. is it heavy? it's very heavy. shockingly heavy >> joey, enjoy your time at the exchange joey chestnut talking his remarkable week yet again. meantime, we have been able to erode some of the opening losses >> the fed minutes will be key, what will the fed do indications where they leaned two, three maybe, one, and what that bar is. >> and just how much labor data we're going to pack into the next two sessions.

j.o.l.t.s., adp, and the jobs number, too. >> that's going to be extremely key. but the second half officially has started. we're the first trading session of the second half, full trading session. >> see you on "fast." over to post 9 "the half" and frank holland. and welcome to "the halftime report." i am frank holland in for the judge scott wapner front and center this hour the game plan for your money as we kick off the first full trading day of the second half of the year we'll debate with the investment committee. full desk here joe terranova, jenny harrington, steve weiss and jim lebenthal. but, first, a check on the markets right now. you'll see red across the board right now. all three indices down fractionally the dow, however, the hardest hit. looking at the ten year, that's where we're seeing movement. the yield there jumping almost 20 basis points in just the past week of course we are waiting for the fed minutes coming up at