trying to find who is the second, third der riverties are, and who we believe is a new tech bull mshgt arket that's playingt more good news rather than the fire in a crowd theater in tech. >> dan, thank you. jon's interview with amazon ceo andy jassy tomorrow. that's going to do it for us at "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," heating up will the surge in the ten-year to almost 4% be a warning sign that this red hot summer rally is about to get cooled off big time plus, throwing in the towel. goldman sachs ditching its sell rating on netflix. this after the stock has rallied close to 130% since goldman made that call. the next move for all the streamers straight ahead. and later, a buzz kill on coinbase and meta's new social media brawl with elon musk and twitter. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq market site. we start off with what might be

a major warning sign for the markets the yield on the ten-year treasury touching its highest level since the collapse of silicon valley bank rates just a few basis points shy of 4%. the two-year getting within a stone's throw of 5%. the yield had fallen below 3.6% in late march. does a steady climb higher threaten the market's recent run? and will it put a cap on how much higher the s&p 500 can go in the second half tim, what do you think >> if you are measuring stocks and you have a discount rate, that's mechanical. higher rates mean lower equity prices that's just what analysts do if you think about a world where we have a trillion dollars -- if you think about the impact on earnings from corporate america operating margins, et cetera, i just think the dynamic with how rates are playing out here is a function of where we've seen the job market remain very resilient. we had -- i realize we always

poo-poo the gdp number, but when you saw the number that was revised, really tells you that, you know, rates maybe could be moving higher. and again, we're talking about 3.90%, 4% on the ten-year, only gets you back to where we are. the fact that rates are taking back from where they were pre-svb and more to the two-year note, which is now closer to that march 8th high at 5.06 close, is really something that gives you some sense that normalcy has gotten back into the banking seconder to. i think it's relatively good news for now, even though, you know, we're going to spend a lot of time talking about fed minutes and what they meant. >> i was thinking about this, because there was a technical analyst that i spoke to on "squawk on the street" earlier today, and he said if we go above 4%, that's going to provide real resistance to the s&p 500. 4% said to be the magic number >> maybe and what's different this time, if you look at the fed's balance sheet and what happened since march. the s&p 500 has rallied 15% plus since the lows

they injectedly kwiliquidity. it went up to 8.7 following the svb collapse and here we are back at that level but the fact that you have rates moving back to that four and five level, i mean -- the liquidity is still there you know what i mean and when you think about some of the biggest companies that really make up the market, that make up earnings growth, that don't really care much about interest rates, in my opinion, they've done well in a higher inflationary environment so, to put your finger on that, because we're at the round numbers, i would focus more on what that two-ten spread is inverted, as long as it has been, what that means over time, because as long as the fed's balance sheet stays up here and doesn't materially work lower, and we know they're going to go back to their playbook, if there's any other credit issues that happen into the market, as basically the round two of what we dealt with in the regional

banking crisis, stocks remain big. because money went immediately in march to those largest numbers, then they got hooked up into this a.i. thing, which is probably the one thing that a lot of bulls right here feel is recession-proof, it's inflation pr -proof, it's everything proof. >> that's a good point hard to say 4% is that particular number. clearly it makes for a much more challenging stock market and what i think will happen, we won't see the breadth that the bulls are calling for. you'll see the retrenchment into the top five, seven names that have a high margin of safety, don't need to refinance, cash flow positive, kind of, you know, balance sheets that are -- that look like war chests. that's really what i think will happen now the question is, will you see enough value expansion within just that sub pocket in order to drive the market higher and that's where i really think the challenge is without the breadth, it makes it tough to call for a new high >> that's a really good point, that's going to make it difficult for the russell 2,000

to join in on this fun we've seen a broadening, but if higher yields put a crimp on some part of the market, it will be on the parts that have to go to the market to fund. >> yeah, definitely harder you're looking at rates near zero it's amazing, some of the bonds that you find out, oh, my god, a zero with a conversion 300% higher than where the stock is there's a number of those. i mean, they all did a great job. the fed worked, what they were trying to do but i feel like we're sort of in a little bit of a vacuum of news in that we're -- next week, we'll start to see bank earnings and i think that will really -- banks, not only do we want to know how the banks are doing, which probably pretty well, but we want to know what do they see in the economy, are they starting to see any m&a pickup i think that -- i'm a little optimistic that we'll see some good things coming out of earnings i know the bar's getting higher. certainly anything on a.i., the

bar is strat spheric >> we have a cpi number the following wednesday. the headline number on cpi is going to be below five and so -- i'm sorry, the core cpi could be below five. i'm seeing consensus on the street around 4.9. headline on cpi really, if you look at the year over year, is going to be kind of an exciting number, though that's not the number we're looking at. we're waiting for payrolls to reinforce some of the tightening that is putting an impact on what companies are doing so far so good but again, i go back to the market that we have and we're talking about a.i. and what it did to nvidia and all these other tech companies, really not even just the ones in the middle of a.i i look at the semiconductors index, which hasn't made a new high against the s&p since may 25th, the day that nvidia reported this, and you had this spike high so, i continue to think you have to at least watch this in terms

of the market's direction. i'm not saying you're falling out of bed, but if you do that ratio of essentially the smh divided by, you know, by essentially the spy, you're at this ratio of .35. you have to watch that >> let's get to the latest commentary out of the federal reserve. the central bank noting in the minutes that most members anticipate more rate hikes ahead. we knew that, steve, so, what else did we find out >> well, new york fed president john williams just got done with some remarks, he sees progress with inflation, he says he's surprised by the release of the housing market, there were some comments about that in the minutes, as well he said he supported the decision to pause in june, because slowing the pace of rate increases makes sense as the fed gathers more data, figures out the lagged effects of monetary policy, rate hikes it's already done he supporting a meeting by meeting decision, but don't get too happy, because he says he

doesn't think we're done that was in the minutes that came out at 2:00 we're almost all thought future rate hikes were appropriate, even as they voted at the time to pause but the minutes raised questions, because some said they wanted to hike 25 basis points at the last meeting in the end, the pause prevailed, with most saying the fed would benefit from more time, as williams said, to assess the lag effects. but the fed wasn't necessarily happy with the sense of the economy. if you look at what their problems were, they said inflation was too high, risk to the upside labor market very tight. consumer spending and gdp resilient and housing may have bottomed looking at the fed futures right now, where the fed is, where the market thinks the fed is, 85% probability of a rate hike in july but only about 35 or so when it comes to that next hike in november so, the market's onboard right now with the issue there's the chart right there,

35 for the november rate hike. markets onboard with that first hike second hike, they are kind of flirting with, but there's time to figure that out and obviously some data dependence, i think a lot of members of the fed want to do that second hike, but they'll be guided by the data. melissa? >> i'm going to ask you the same question that i asked this morning, the fed really wants to get to 2% and they're noting all the different things about the economy that remain strong, it seems like there's a long road ahead. it's not just another 25 basis points and poof, you're done i mean, housing may have bottomed, that's great, but the housing market really hasn't taken much of a stumble, if you look at the recent data and how home builders are doing. >> that's right. even the current level of home building at 1.3, 1.4 million, we've seen lower rates than that the fed has a problem with two particular areas housing and autos. both of which should be extremely rate sensitive, but autos, i think phil lebeau's been reporting, fairly robust annual sales for the most recent month. so, that's a problem, because

there's some pent up demand, and a lot of pent up demand in housing, so, the fed is going to have to lean harder in two different ways one is, it could lean harder by hiking rates the second is, it will lean harder by staying at a high rate while the inflation rate falls, melissa. what will that mean? it means the real rate, the real fed funds rate will actually become at least as restrictive or more restrictive. if tim is right, you get this decline in court cpi coming up, or just in regular cpi coming up, well then relatively, the fed is tighter because the real rate, minus inflation, is higher >> all right, steve, thank you go catch your flight think you're at the airport. steve liesman, thank you always good to see his input >> is he in one of those cnbc newspaper places >> that's a good question. >> great places. they don't have "fast money" prominently featured >> i don't know why. we'll get on that right away high priority. in terms of -- let's say they do 25 more basis points and they stay there for a long time

is that going to produce restrictive environment? >> that's a real rate. just depends how quickly inflation's coming down or whether it reinserts himself, and those are some of the concerns you're seeing over in europe i tgo back to, you said you're optimisting, optimistic, you were last year from here, what -- >> i was optimistic at the highs. >> you were more, you know, pounding the table but my -- my point is, you'd be optimistic we're going to avoid a recession, almost every economist like nine months ago was pretty certain was going to happen at some point this year >> i this i tnk they are all expecting it >> when you look at the home sales, up 12% month over month and those are new home sales and you look at what the stock market is doing despite the fed speaking in the hawkish pause, everything like that, it just seems like we're getting to a place where we have all been over the last 20 or so years at different times where if things -- things are kind of off the rails.

just from a risk asset value standpoint and that's where things get really dangerous rational people like you remain optimistic in the face of something that really shouldn't be the case, if you think about how quickly rates have gone up, what the fed is saying and what they're still trying to do >> response? >> response from a rational person hello. >> i think that -- they've been -- okay, it's been awhile since they've started, it's already 15 months, right and they were telling us, telling us, telling us, over and over again, we are going to raise rates, we're going to be aggressive so, we've had a lot of time. and, you know, i hear a lot about, well, we haven't seen the full lag effect -- i don't know. i feel like it's starting to be enough time that those lag effects would be here. the housing thing, it's a very unique situation with people who have a home and a mortgage at, you know, 3%3%ish, can't move, don't want to move, and the supply/demand dynamic is still so out of whack. great for the home builders, but not so great for people looking

to find an affordable home but i think companies are just run better and i think that also the market's not a monolith. there are areas that have sort of been left behind and there's obviously a.i., which is way out ahead, but i don't know, i still remain optimistic. it's just my way, just sitting across from you makes me optimistic what can i say >> the one place we are getting consumer credit that is breaking down in aggregate levels or where it is outstanding, debt service ratios, percentage of disposable income so, at some point, that fields through to corporates, and that cease something we should all be watching i also just, you know, back to that ten-year, if you think about where we were before we even knew covid could exist in this world, we were in a world where equities were always about tina, there was no alternative and so, you know, that's a dynamic that i think we were talking about in 2018 as rates went from kind of 150 up to 280 on my charts here before we started to fall apart. we have to consider equities and

the earnings yield and the alternatives investors have in yield product than what they had back then. >> for more, let's bring in cnbc contributor peter bookbar, chief investment officer peter, did you learn much, said nothing new came out of the minutes? >> nothing new, but anybody looking through the minutes to try to find any hint of dovishness didn't really find it and i think that's why the rate hike odds for july didn't really change at around 82% now, can that change with friday's payroll number or next week's cpi maybe. but it seems that the fed is at least intent on going one more time i say one more time, because i think this is one more time too much, and i find it hard to believe they're going to go past this, because of the restrictive nature of where we are today >> karen was making the point just now, peter, that, you know, it's been 15 months since the first rate hike and shouldn't we start to see some of the lag effects at this point? and i'm wondering, you know,

based on what -- how do you think those lag effects are going to manifest in the economy? what are you expecting if you think the fed has gone too far already? >> it's happening every day, but it's not making it on the front page of "the wall street journal. it's happening to the business that has a loan coming due, or has a floating rate piece of paper that is resetting. it's happening every single day, somebody is seeing a dramatically, sharply higher cost of capital, because loans are coming due, a business or a household. so, this is sort of a silent killer, in my opinion, to economic growth, that we don't see headline nature wise, but on a cumulative perspective, it's happening over the next couple quarters, over the next couple years, if rates stay at these high levels for awhile more money is willing allocated to interest expense. commercial real estate projects, we know, are handing back the keys this is just, like i said, a

silent impact on the economy that is not front page news, but it's happening every single day and somebody's getting caught with so much debt with an unbalanced balance sheet >> peter, thank you for your time there seems to be a lot of attention paid to the absolute level of rates one thing that the fed officials were unanimous about was the desire to shrink balance sheet would you mind speaking about that and the effects that are perhaps being overlooked on that aspect >> well, i agree, and i know dan was talking about it earlier probably on friday, we'll see the balance sheet of the fed get finally back below where it was right before svb collapsed so, i think the balance sheet shrinkage is going to be now more notable from here, from a contraction air standpoint and we know qe was meant to lift asset prices qt does the reverse, even though it's sort of been put to the side because of these other

liquidity things with the tj and so forth but i think from here on out from a liquidity standpoint, it begins to matter this is also sort of behind the scenes, but i think it's -- while the fed may be done about raising interest rates, they're going to rely on higher for longer and they're going to rely on the continued shrinkage of that balance sheet where they're target, we don't know wh but i know in the fed's mind right now, they hope to shinning shrink it by $1 to $2 trillion >> peter, thank you. >> thank you, melissa. >> if had an adjustable rate mortgage, say it was 5.1%, what was your rate and what is it jumping to the differential is enormous at this point >> throw the student loan thing on there there's a lot of things. but listen, optimistic you have to be, markets go up over time, right and it just -- in this sort of environment, with these sorts of dynamics and, you know, it's really hard to see how we can

get much further from here uncorrected at some point. and when you think about the nasdaq in particular, and you think of the concentration of those names, there's been all this focus on the broadening out of the markets, but the sectors that are starting to participate they add up to an apple and a microsoft combined, so -- so much of the optimism seems to be in ten stocks and that just, you know, seems to be a dangerous situation. >> again, the most notable line today from those fed minutes was -- it does not appear the economy is -- inflation is on a path to return to the committee's 2% they don't even think they're close. that means rates are staying where they are during this period, and with that expectation and fed funds have priced this in. you look out one year, we are exactly where we are right now on fed funds so, the market is saying, we believe the fund look at the chart on fedex and airlines these are industrials that are telling you something. look at what's going on in japan who has been welcoming any signs

of inflation, so, there are places to invest in this market. i think japan's going to overshoot to the upside. we talk international. there are some places that actually are doing well in this environment, and i think that's where people need to be. i think staples, look, expensive, forget megacap tech, but there are places within health care that have been very beaten up. and this is that opportunity there. >> all right, coming up, the streaming wars rage on analysts bingeing on netflix and amazon's big spending comes into focus. where should you be in this trade? plus, crypto crush while one firm is calling for a big drop in coinbase shares and why the reason bitcoin boom didn di didn't don't goanywhere

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. welcome back to "fast money. netflix on a binge today, hitting its highest level since february 2022, after preearnings upgrade from goldman sachs the bank raising the stock from a neutral to a sell. and hiked its price target from $400 still the target's 10% below where netflix closed the day we're all scratching our heads here andy jassy is reportedly re-evaluating spending on original programming as part of

its company-wide cost-cutting program. tim, you've been in this -- >> yeah. first of all, stuff being an analyst in anything, it's tough doing what we do we get things wrong all the time >> sure. >> that 230 went when the stock was at 220 so, anyway -- but the argument for netflix, especially around content, is that they're in a pretty good position here. not just because of a strike that's going on in hollywood that may be expanding, may not be, but because of the international presence, one of the reasons netflix was the stock you wanted to know, where they had their growth is where they don't run into this their content machine, which is also proven to be maybe more efficient than the major studios. i think it just gets down to, they're finally getting rewarded people can see, this is all accretive, password sharing. and the lower price ad tier has been wildly successful and changing how people are viewing, without it being cannibalistic if you look at the stock, back up to that 450 level, that's the

level after the q-1 ' 22 disaster i think there's some resistance here, but that's where the stock has run into some trouble, but builds a case there, too >> the word is more muted, and amazon news, this report that it is scrutinizing what it is spending on amazon studios really gets to that point, that everybody is looking at how much, scrutinizing their budgets, which is great for netflix. >> it is great they are in financially the best position by far. that was the beginning of 2022, money was still free, and you had all these streamers coming in and they were putting up big numbers. disney, it with us seen as very successful, the new competitors were jumping in. money is no longer free, for sure, so, netflix is just -- it's just the winner i keep waiting to see who gets taken out, either via merger or they just throw in the towel, because it's too expensive >> yeah, in hindsight, that move

away from subscriber growth seems to be very prescient if you are growing, but at what cost and for them to say, we're going to shift away from that, in addition to the ad tier, and cracking down on passwords, i think sets up nicely here at 37, 28 38 times, are yo willing to pay for the incremental upside, and i don't think i am >> i agree with that there was a time where you bought it last fall, it was really cheap the last time it traded at 15 times, but that's no longer the case here. when you think about them having the same enterprise value as disney, if i was going to play would you rather, i would much rather do disney right here. and again, they have the debt, they have the host of other issues, that seems like a no brainer, but to tim's point about the chart, you probably have 10% upside. that gap might get filled to $500, if this continues to go that way, but i wouldn't be there for that, because the expectations get that much higher, and if there's any sort of slipups here, you know, like -- i don't think you want

to be there. and people have to remember this, okay, because meta and netflix and tesla and nvidia, stocks that go down 75% from an all-time high, when no one thinks they can do it, can do it again. i'm just saying. right now, they're just up on fumes here, you know what i mean so, that's the one thing i'd be really cautious about chasing. >> would you rather disney or netflix? it seems like -- it might be better off, if it did not have a streaming business >> how did dan pull me into his reindeer games here? he played it right he played it right so, i'm long netflix, i've sold one-third of a position, and i'm long disney and that's been a disaster i agree on on a pairs trade. kind of like your target walmart trade. at some point so bad it's good if i'm carter, so, to the penny. >> pair of twos. >> i'm not ready to get rid of netflix. do not miss an exclusive interview with andy jassy tomorrow, 4:00 p.m. on "overtime" right here on cnbc.

meantime, a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> a quarter drop for coinbase why one analyst seep sees a 25%d in store for the stock, despite grip taupe's recent runup. the details next plus, a china/u.s. at this time for at the, as washington goes after semi exports, beijing is targeting the stuff used to make them. so, how does the back and forth end up shaking out we're diving in ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. can i still play? since we work with emower, we don't have to worry about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf... sometimes. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. ready to shine from the inside out? say “yes” to nature's bounty advanced gummies and jelly beans. the number one brand for hair, skin and nails.

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welcome back to "fast money. buzz kill on coinbase. shares 2% lower today. the firm forecasting up to a 25% downside ahead in the q-3 outlook that includes its lowest trading volumes and monthly users in over two years. despite the stock's 122% rally this year, piper says last month's s.e.c. lawsuit has prevented coinbase from benefits from the recent run on crypto. maybe it's because of the 122% run this year. where do you stand on this name? >> listen, it's hard for me to kind of get off the train here i can understand from a minimum trade, you want to take some profits, it's up 120%, but i'll say that people have been bearish on this name for quite some time, as evidenced by 22%, 24% short interest and the short interest change of 7% recently. so, it's people that are resetting shorts to me, that sets up for possibly another short squeeze. >> i think given what we just heard from the s.e.c. with not just coinbase or the whole

industry, i think i wouldn't chase it here. and if i was playing would you rather -- >> again what is this >> i'd go toe a robin hood when you look at, you know -- they have two-thirds of the market cap in cash right now they're going to expect to be profitable next year, and you think about the revenues getting back to peak in that 2021 period, they have the exposure to crypto, they have the g demographic, and it 's not just crypto >> i've never seen -- back-to-back segments -- >> you beat grasso >> he played it well i mean, he did do the game the right way, though i've never seen anyone, two successive blocks on this show. >> bitcoin, is this a good thing for coinbase >> i think it's ultimately a bad thing. >> yeah, i think so, too >> the ability to have it out there and the eft companies, what are following the s.e.c.'s guidelines and have been careful not to overstep it -- i think it's a tough place to be challenging the s.e.c. on its

boundaries i realize we're allowed to do this in this country, but right now, nobody has said that these things are in a place where they couldn't be securities, so -- >> yeah, i agree i think -- not only is it, you know, taking share, could go away easily, it's also the commoditization, how much are the fees going to be they're going to have so much pressure for them to come down i don't get the strategy of being so aggressive on tv -- to the s.e.c. i mean -- kind of, you know, that's got some cajones. i would probably use a different strategy >> naice. >> maybe they have exhausted all over avenues >> maybe all right, coming up, u.s./china relations in focus. what janet yellen's visit could mean for ongoing tensions. and one miner soaring. so, will the heavy metal keep rocking. a rare earth options look when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing lower as investors digest the minutes from the fed's latest meeting. the dow breaking a three-day winning streak the s&p nasdaq falling

airlines managing to close in the green. jetblue, spirit, delta, american, and united with nice gains. and shares of rivian going higher the company on monday reported better than expected deliveries in q-2 and reaffirmed its outlook in terms of deliveries shares up 22% this week. janet yellen traveling to beijing to meet with senior chinese officials beginning tomorrow the talks coming as china puts new export restrictions on metals used in everything from semis to evs one official saying the move is just the start in the ongoing back and forth between the u.s. and beijing. for more, we have joined by john rut rutledge john, great to see you, as always and, of course, we also got the report that the u.s. will limit or curtail the mount of business that u.s. cloud companies can do with companies in china all this is going back and forth as these officials are trying to repair relations do you think that they're really trying to repair relations at

this point do you think that can actually work >> melissa, i think it's very likely we're no longer going to be bffs when this is all done. it's -- you know, there's something every day. last friday, it was the prime minister saying they'll no longer export fancy machines from asml. on saturday, we had the shanghai cooperation organization meeting, which is xi jinping, putin, and they brought in iran to the group this week. and then we had the rare earths, gallium and germanium, you couldn't make up those names the next one is the big one, which is a restriction from the u.s. on -- in capital going out of the u.s. into china that's a first and it's very big. foreign capital coming in has been around for a long time. this is about capital exports, so, could call it sexy, if you

really want to she's going to have a really difficult four days and her four days might turn into four days like it did for secretary blinken. >> both of them, they're going to china, john, why aren't we seeing china dignitaries, e give lebt of secretaries, coming to the u.s. >> that's a good -- that's a very good point. i've -- many times on shows on the network, i've talked about how important the pr and the face is for chinese leaders. what really matters to them is how the messages get bounced back inside of china when blinken was there, there was very widely televised meeting where xi jinping sat at the head of the table, blinken was at the side of the table and taking notes that was broadcast all over china. something like that will happen with secretary yellen, too, where it will be very clear, she is a subordinate to whoever is

doing the -- doing it. so, they're looking to embarrass us and they're looking to intensify this to get us to back off. i don't think it's going to happen >> hey, john, it's tim in all my time investing in emerging markets, a lot of it in china, china's always welcomed foreign capital. if this concept of, we're going to restrict incoming capital, obviously the u.s. is the biggest capital market in the world, the most liquid market in the world, but even in the worst of times, we've seen china keep money, hoping to make it a money center is it game over if that really happens? i mean, i think i know the answer >> well, you know, game over is a -- that's probably more than we could say, because xi jinping will die one day and be replaced by someone else, but at the moment, the chinese capital market closed for foreign investors when jack maw was kicked out of alibaba. and that was the big signal that we're going to place security ahead of economics

now, ironically, yellen is going to china to tell them that the u.s. has decided to place security in front of economics so, we're going to do various things like restrict semiconductors, lean on our friends in holland to restrict asml we're going to restrict capital from flowing into your country and so, this is just the beginning of a long battle economically, it's not good for china at all it's not good for us, either, but really, china is in a spot to be hurt the most by this. >> john, great to see you, thank you. >> pleasure. >> john rutledge we heard gallium and germanium, you think then maybe graph ite, rare earths, which is why we saw mp surge on the day. it goes on and on. >> it seems luke it's continuing to escalate and really makes it tough to invest in chinese equities i think the upside is compelling, particularly valuations that come off so

much he harkened the jack maw saga. it really makes it difficult for you to attach a fundamental analysis and price targeting around where you think these equities should trade. i think ultimately economics will win out people are going to continue to s chase yield, and for that reason, it's going to continue to attract capital >> if jack was kicked out because why that was putting national security over economics, right and that was your signal and that was john's signal, the same could be true for the u.s. we're putting national security over economics with these export controls, so -- doesn't it extend -- >> we are. we are doing it here, but we're trying to build up intel we're trying to make intel, being able to compete with taiwan semi. i would just say that the jack situation -- jack got too far ahead of china it was not -- china was beating down one of its own, pardon the expression, but that was the case of, you're not bigger than the government and you've actually kind of flaunted the rules on how we do

things around here and i actually am really excited to see joe and jack kind of back in play. and i think that's at least a trade. and remember, when china was so bad back in october, and we make fun of ourselves, we get things so wrong -- that was the bottom of a very big trade. >> i'm proud of that, too. i mean, we can reliably be a contrarian ec contrarian indicator. shares of mp materials jumping 11% in the session options traders were big in the name, as well. kevin kelly has the action >> hi, melissa yeah, all the excitement today, where the stock was up 6%, you actually saw about four times the amount of calls traded very us puts. and you know, this has a high implied volatility in the name, but you saw a bunch of options being traded all the way out to the december expirry and the most -- one of the most active

contracts today was the december $30 strike calls, and you had about 3,800 contracts traded that, and they closed the day at about $1.71. so, you have 163 days until expirry and hopefully the stock can get above 30 for a lot of those contracts. >> kevin, thank you. for more options action, tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, zuckerberg at it again. meta planning a new rival to twitter. wall street liking the news today, sending shares higher ic'll bring you the details ne stk around more "fast money" in two

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the symptoms of atrial fibrillation. when it comes to your health, this is no time to wait. welcome back to "fast money. a social media shakeup could be in the works, as meta prepares to roll out trehreads the stock at highs not seen since february 2022. julia boorstin has the details >> shares are up 144% year to date, bolstered by optimism today about threads it's a new app that the social giant is getting ready to join out. threads was set to debut tomorrow, be you the countdown

clock on threads says it's launching in just about an hour and 15 minutes threads is described as a tech space conversation app that appears to look a lot like twitter. it is designed to leverage instagram's popularity enabling users to quickly follow the same profiles they follow on instagram and to use their instagram handle to log in and create an account. analytics firm insider intelligence saying, quote, meta only needs roughly 1 in 4 instagram users to use threads monthly to make it as big as twitter. meta already has the scale, resources, and execution strategy to make that happen the launch of threads comes at a time when twitter is particularly vulnerable. on the heels of elon musk setting limits to the number of tweets people can read plus, there are questions about how many of twitter's users will opt into paying for the company's twitter blue subscription service and it seems like threads is free we will learn more about threads when it launches very soon

melissa? >> and hour and 15 minutes i know dan nathan has the countdown clock on his computer right now. does meta have the advantage, because it can sell advertising across platforms and maybe give people free ads to be on thread as an experiment >> i don't know about free ads, but they have the ability to sell ads across platforms, and also target ads across platforms. the fact you are using your instagram log-in means you already knowwhat kind of content you like on instagram. they are target ads based on the content you're interacting with on this new platform, but they have a huge advantage in that they have this advertising business machine already very much built out >> all right, julia, thank you julia boorstin i made fun of dan, i didn't moo mean to -- >> elon did. listen, twitter's dead it's dead. it's gone. it's got 330 million monthly active users and they're declining. snap had 750 million that they

just announced, that was up 25% year over year, okay so, then you think about what meta has been able to do, you talked about how they're going to monetize threads, they bought whatsapp for $20 billion ten years ago and they still don't monetize it and they have 3 billion active users there as far as instagram, they have 2.5 billion monthly active users that are fairly well addicted. the reels thing is working well. if they just take an average crack at this, they are going to be able to surpass twitter, much better relationships with advertisers, think about that, okay, the advertisers are leaving, that's down 43% twitter is done. >> it's sort of pr problems with twitter, every day, and it's just kind of funny to me that, you know, now the world sort of is, all right, mark zuckerberg is the grownup in the room here, and this, you know, it's not going to be this sort of cesspool that twitter is i find that sort of funny. but happy that it's working out

that way meta has turned it around so dramatically and zuckerberg, at the moment, can't do anything wrong. >> i'll say this for twitter i mean, expectations and where it is couldn't be lower. and it's been such a relevant and undermonetized asset in the media world and, you know, in live news flow that i -- i don't think that that's gone and i think there's maybe -- there is a new regime about to take hold there, so, something to think about as far as meta goes, reels, again, a low base, but i was reading a note, their year over year instagram reels is going to grow, like, three times off of where it was a year ago, so, the ad spend, and what they're doing, the ability to monetize there, is an exciting part of the meta story it's not just about cost savings. coming up, yahoo! take two the once dominant internet giant is planning to go public again what's behind the move and how will investors take to the stock in our desk will weigh in on that one when "fast money" returns.

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that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. welcome back to "fast money. call it a case of yahoo! deja vu they are reportedly planning on a return to the public market. the ceo telling "the financial times" is company is ready

financially, has a great balance sheet and we're very profitable. yahoo! was required by verizon then sold to apollo in 2021, but will this trade flop or fly in a future ipo were you in yahoo! when it was public >> who wasn't? >> back in the day, yeah this will be impossible for it to flop for apollo the way they retooled this company, the way they sold assets and took out their equity this is a private equity company. so, this is going to be a hit for them it will be interesting in the context of what we just talked about, i think they have, like, almost a billion monthly active users. people don't think about yahoo!. it's one of the most trafficked websites on the planet >> so, this return to market got us think, what other companies should go public that is currently private? karen, what pop into your head >> well, i always thought mars company, the gigantic candy company. they should be public. i know it's family-owned,

they're all multibillionmultibi. >> the maker of mars bars -- >> do they make m&ms >> karen doesn't eat candy >> i don't we eat a lot of candy here and karen does not eat any at all. >> if you want to sponsor us -- >> peppermint patties. >> bonawyn >> openai. obvious pick can we say anything without mentioning artificial intelligence i think you've got to ride the wave if there is ever a time to be selling, it would be right now >> tim >> i think it's a.r.m., softbank took it private in 2016. softbank needs a victory or two and this company has really re-emerged >> dan what do you say? >> i didn't play the game right. mine would be stripe it is going to go public, but interestingly, its was valued at $95 billion. they just did a raise at $50

billion. i want to see how -- >> cut in half, basically? wow. >> yeah. >> not a good time >> it would be a big test, though, for big cap and fin tech >> unicorunicorns, correct. up next, final trades.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim seymour? >> i love mcdonald's, my son eats their chicken mcnuggets, the only protein he gets and i'm embarrassed to get that. but i think you have to sell it at $300. >> whatever it takes karen? >> yeah. >> yeah, we actually have in the control room -- >> he is >> connor is in there. great to see him all that talk about coinbase makes me think interactive broker not an expensive price. >> bonawyn >> all this discussion about u.s. tensions makes me think defensives lmt. >> all right dan nathan >> you know what would be cool if it went public, in and out burger >> in and out? >> we would have a lot of fun. the taste test with guy and everything like that >> we've done that >> with in and out

>> not there all the other burgers. >> you like interactive brokers. you were optimistic. i'm optimistic on robinhood. >> okay. >> there you go. >> he chose to break the rules >> again >> many times today. >> thank you for watching "fast. ar rhtowey" with jim crame