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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 5, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> you like interactive brokers. you were optimistic. i'm optimistic on robinhood. >> okay. >> there you go. >> he chose to break the rules >> again >> many times today. >> thank you for watching "fast. ar rhtowll, guess whatrame
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it's an oil company, and oil is bad. chevron's better than most of its companies, but who the heck wants to own a commodity stock when the commodities are heading lower. even a great company like chevron, and they are great. third worse is amgen boy, i'm calling that dead money. just a point donor to tech trades at roughly 12 times
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earnings remember when amgen was a growth stock? it's a sign people no longer believe it's a growth stock. it's become one more drug stock pinata that is really nothing special. frankly, nothing pharma trades well because wall street is worried about the government cracking down on drug prices this time i think it might be actual next, if you think j&j has legal problems, 3m puts them to shame with its forever chemical lawsuits that can't be put to rest, even after a big settlement with the affected communities. now there are thousands more veterans up by the way who say they have hearing problems because 3m allegedly defective earplugs these issues aren't going away tech doesn't have these kinds of problems finally, walgreens i think they're being crushed by amazon and by theft in the front of the store while the pharmacy side of the business has been targeted by multiple entities that wanted to get drug prices down, including the government i say who wants to own the stock of a drug store when practically everything in there is behind
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lock and key and some piece of plastic is that is hideous amiserable shopping experience i do not like having to make someone come out from wherever they were behind the desk so i can get my gillette razor it tarts with epam, an enterprise software that missed the court, lowered estimates. it's all bad like so many other enterprise software companies who needs it that's not going to broaden the rally. schwab is next now we all know the problems of financials that have the wrong bond portfolios has schwab does. i like schwab, but it hasn't resolved the situation to wall street's satisfaction. then there is moderna. look, i like the stock but it falls under the rubric of post-covid hangover. a whole group of stocks to fit that one can we can't on new to broaden things out let's see. a bad balance sheet, paltry earnings and just cut its dividends. i don't think that's going to
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cut it and then genuine worries about bank rules citizens financial, comerica, zions and key three and two. we lost these after silicon valley and signature bank both failed within days of each other in march there hasn't been really real comeback because we're convinced regulation could be totally punitive i've got tell you. i like this one, but it's because it's where the phillies play number four, enphase, it turned out to be a financing play it's harder to borrow money. finally, the worst performer of the s&p 500 in the first half is advanced auto parts. it's been cut in half thanks to an earnings disaster that what you're waiting for, for them to get better i think any company worrying about the financing is going to be in trouble. why bother waiting for an auto parts industry to turn around? i don't mind the auto stocks, though i highlight all these losers because how this market could broaden out when so many companies have become have-nots
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because of sector wide woes that prevent them from doing well could the environment change sure but considering how many of these problems come from the fed raising rates. bottom line, if you're willing to be really patient, you can wait until the fed is done tightening but by that time, i'll tell you one thing. the move will be over. so why not go with what's working instead of waiting for what's truly not working and stop weight for things to have to broaden out we just had the best value in 40 years in the nasdaq. you think if we get quarter we're going to do better than that i don't think so joe in florida, joe? >> caller: hey, jim, i have a question. >> sure. >> how about storage why does it go up and down like a yo-yo and never goes anywhere? >> right now it is perceived that they have overbuilt in the industry and there is a lot of mergers. i think you're fine. i like psa i think it is a very good company. the advice at rally was too narrow you should wait to buy
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that has kept you out of massive rally. shame on those who said it has to get broad before i'll get in. look, some stocks are just better than others on "mad money" tonight, wall street has been expecting a recession for a while now. but with the labor market that is more resilient than many expected, where should we stand? paychecks. and then there is a new king of beers in the form of consolation brands investors should know about. and the company behind the popular running shoes you see everywhere invited us to the store in brooklyn today, and i'm excited for the story. great growth starts out there. so stay with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money. follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc
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miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪
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we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. a changing world. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity...
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and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.
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how do we get a read on this murky economy where so many experts have told us to expect a recession for over a year now, yet the recession never comes? i like to take my cue from paychex, one of the company's largest payroll processors, mostly for small and medium-sized businesses which also offer various human resource, outsourcing and consulting services. lucrative stuff. even though the stock has been fabulous long-term winner, it instantly becomes more probable every time the fed raises interest rates because they collect interest on the payroll. wall street has turned against paychex when the fed started tightening
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ever the job market is still doing relatively well. another solid quarter with a slightly better than expected full year forecast while the stock hasn't done much in response fwheerksd to figure out what is really going on here, because this company can tells us a great deal about small business, the bedrock of the american economy and how it impacts the stock market let's check with john gibson, the president and ceo of paychex to get a better idea of what it means for the border economy mr. gibson, welcome back to "mad money. >> jim, it's great to be back with you. >> thank you, john hey, listen. we know we got this release today. small business jobs index dips in june. rate of job growth moderates your numbers are always the best there is and i said there is a little slow deceleration, maybe that's more important than how you're doing, because your numbers were good how can you put this, the news release in context with how your company is doing >> yeah, well, look, jim, i think in the index, what i would
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say is we're basically back to where we were in january you look here halfway through '23, we saw the job index the first quarter, we saw an increase every month of that quarter. then we've seen moderation over the last couple. and what's interesting in the june numbers, when you dig under it, what we're seeing is some deceleration because people are trying to get more difficult to find people particular in leisure and hospitality. so that is a soft spot. >> it is so hard, that business right now. but there is something that concerns me. i've been a big believer that the yield curve may actually be wrong. now in my careers i've been wrong a couple of times. i think maybe i've been around for a few times. i wasn't around for '59. do you think you're a casualty where if a yield curve is inverted, then business must go bad? >> well, i think, jim, part of the issue we have here is that i think some of the basic models we have about employment are
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flawed and how we can control it i think we have a labor supply problem in the u.s. right now. and i think policymakers need to focus there. i'm not convinced that all of this action is going to have the desired impact when you think about the fact that businesses have struggled so hard over the last three years to really regain their employment levels i talked a lot of business owners that are very concerned to think about taking any action, because they're not sure they can get those people back so i think a lot of our historical models aren't necessarily going match up well of a country that just went through a pandemic and went through the type of labor turmoil that we've had the last three years. >> well, i'm going to add to, that john. i feel that we're in a country where there is so much new regulation and concern that in the end, the big guys, the large employers, they win and the small guys can't compete with them and a lot of people feel that you're the great ally of the small ones i know you have been because
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i've been a client and it is disconcerting to watch the big guys because they can deal with the regulations a lot more easily than the small and medium size. >> listen, jim, i think you're pointing to the reason why we've had such a great fiscal year ending last fiscal year. the fact of the matter is, we help businesses succeed. we're helping them compete against the big guys you look at it for the year, our revenue was up 9% last fiscal year we surpassed $5 billion in revenue as a company we added a billion dollars in reoccurring revenue over the course of the pandemic we actually exited the last six months stronger than when the prior six months, and it's really because of the value of our hr services, the fact that we're helping businesses attract and retain employees we're helping them put together benefit packages like 401(k)s that allow them to compete against the big guys and what we're seeing is you look at gen z and look at a lot of newer generational people that are entering the workforce,
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they're actually attracted to small and mid-sized companies that have an entrepreneurial spirit versus a big company. so we're out there, and i think our value proposition is resonating, and i think we're helping the little guy win. >> i totally agree but one last question. are you advising companies that have more than $100,000 in one bank, that they should diversify? because i believe that the small, medium-sized business depends on the small and medium-sized banker. and i would hate to see a lot of money taken way from small and medium-sized bankers and given to jp morgan but you're in a bind if you say you can stay with the smaller guy and they get in trouble, well, you know, maybe it's going to be your fault. so what you telling people >> well, look, i think we're telling our small business owners to continue to build that strong relationship. as you said, the place for small and midsized business is really their local bank but we're also encouraging them to diversify, and also look at
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nontraditional fintech approaches that i think are going to give them access to capital. access to capital, cost to capital, big issue for good successful business owners look, everyone should diversify, shouldn't have all your eggs in one basket but i think keeping those relationships with the regional players is something that you're going to see small and mid-sized business owners continue to do because it is the place where they're going get the best terms. >> terrific. well, look, john, your company is continuing to do great. one day people will realize that it shouldn't be dictate bade yield curve. you're making a lot of money right now because of changes that you made internally at your business that's john gibson, president and ceo of paychex with a great yield, by the way, we've been recommending the company since the show began, and i'm not moving away from it. "mad money" is back after the break. coming up, is there a new king of beer in the usa? cramer's topping the kegs from constellation brands to see if this company has the right kind
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♪ (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments ♪ is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our clients' portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better.
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move over, bud light there is a new king of beers here in america, and it's mexican, modelo especial last quarter a tremendous quarter. best known for importing corona, modelo and pacifico. it turns out modelo is truly number one now, something the consumer survey has been telling us for weeks we may not have gotten a regime change in russia, but there has definitely been a coup d'etat in the beer business. if you asked me a few months ago, i never would have predicted this even though i love const constellation. you can follow the charitable trust by following the cnbc
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investment club. incredible strength in mexican beer brands, the company has been plagued by problems like its disastrous incredibly bad investment in canopy growth, the canadian cannabis company, the stock that has been a train wreck, the worst since the seminole train wreck seen in cramer fave the fugitive more recently the company's founders decided to sell huge chunks of stock in order to make new investments -- [ booing ] >> -- which put a pressure on the share price. just over three months ago constellation was in a truly difficult position it was -- the stock was sitting at 210, near the lowest levels in more than two years so what happened to turn this thing around how the heck did modelo especial suddenly become the king of beers? well, bud light lost their market in a campaign that somehow turned into a culture war issue, and that blew up in their face they used to be number one
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but when we got the latest market share numbers a few weeks ago, it was modelo especial top selling. yes, the number one beer in may surpassing a hobbled bud light maybe it's better to be lucky than good. last friday we got confirmation when constellation reported a great quarter. solid sales. they would have been even better without canopy dragging them down the strength came from the booming beer business. that sale is up 11%. that's double-digit. while the wine and beers division was less impressive, it is a smaller piece of the pie. those numbers might not sound super impressive, especially when you consider management really reaffirmed their four-year forecast, but when you read through the conference call, it was insanely positive, which is why so many analysts rayed their price targets on monday morning what made constellation sell so good it comes down to what wall street calls the cadence of the quarter. the rhythm how did things develop from week
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to week to week and month to month to month during the quarter. well, that's what wall street wants to hear is a great cadence. and the cadence here was nothing short of stupendous. hallelujah >> the performance accelerated throughout the quarter, a key metric of how much product the beer company is moving there was a 5.5% increase for the quarter and depletion growth continued to accelerate into june. see, that's fabulous cadence remember, when we're talking about cadence, an overall good quarter that started okay and finished strong is much better than a great quarter that started strong and finished okay because we care about the future here, not the past and cadence gives you a sense of where things are headed. constellation is putting a ton of money into increasing distribution of popular beer brands and they're now taking market share like crazy. modelo has become the number one beer by dollar sales while
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corona and pacifico also grew by 4%, eh, and 26% respectively the corona numbers, i don't know if you ever have, it's a long neck with yellow neck, it is a killer the pacifico number is amazingly strong it hasn't even been pushed by the company yet. shame on them. they should put a lot of money behind what's winning. but they got a lot of share to gain it really does come down to the accelerating revenue growths in the question-and-answer session, when you look at the beer market data crucial report, the 12-week is better than the 26-week, while the four-week is better than the 12-week. yes. cadence again. most tiananmen square important, the acceleration experienced in the first quarter is continuing into the second quarter. and things were already great in the first quarter newland says modelo especial was growing by double-digits ch chillada grew by triple-digits in 47 states
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that's powerful. how about the trade down effect as consumers brace for what is constantly told is going to be a recession. newland doesn't see it at all, not at all he sees stronger consumer engagement with all of constellation's beer brands. all of this is good and getting better and that's the key constellation's beer business got increasingly stronger and they ran circles around bud light thanks in part to budweiser's controversial ad campaign however, when constellation reported, the stock initially didn't do much because management declined to raise the four-year forecast a lot of managers figured they would boost the guidance because of the newfound strength of modelo, but the company decided to be conservative, which turned a lot of investors off they were worried about weakening sales that we didn't see. but since then constellation has rallied nicely because it was clear the management simply was being conservative it's possible to keep the newfound beer business but maybe people go back to bud light some day as anheuser-busch gets its house in order. so why would constellation stick its neck out here?
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in the end, what matters to me is the overall thesis. constellation's mexican beer business consistently produces solid organic growth and right now they've got a chance to supercharge it thanks to the chaotic state of the beer market and really important and left out on the poll, super hot weather in some of the most important regions like texas weather does correlate with beer sales. plus, maybe they even keep a ton of the new customers, but modelo is a fantastic beer. i used to crush it at bar san miguel i don't think people will want to go back constellation stock, this isn't expensive. this has normally been expensive stock, but it's currently telling a little more than 21 times forward earning estimates, exactly in line with the average price earnings multiple over the past four years. even though constellation has run from 210 to 251 in a matter of months, i don't think it's too late to get in if modelo and corona and pacifico can hold their market share gains for a couple more months, the earnings estimates are going to go way up, and i wouldn't be at all surprised if that's what's going to happen.
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constellation has a great product and the bud light debacle has given them an opportunity. bottom line here, after trading sideways for years, constellation brand seems finally to have gotten its groove back. based on what bill newland said, i'm betting it's got a lot more upside possibly maybe even to record levels i think so modelo especial is the number one beer in america, yet the stock is still down about 10 bucks from the 52-week high. how does that make any sense it doesn't which is why we're sticking with constellation for the charitable trust. we think it's headed much higher too much good news ahead for it to stall out at these levels >> hallelujah! >> let's stay cool why don't we go to mike in connecticut. mike >> caller: hey, jim. i've been a call several times throughout the course of my working life and retirement. you've been such a wonderful source of information with your teachings. i have to say thanks once again. and you're a life-saver in a
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minefield. >> i've been on vacation and gotten so many positive comments all i can say is the people who don't like me, good luck go ahead >> heck with them. hey, have i one question, but it's a tail of two stocks. >> okay. >> the main stock has been opening store after store, but not concentrating on individual store sales. this stock is also gotten some bad press with lawsuits. it's also been said to have given out some incorrect information about itself should i sell dutch bros at this time, by more palan tear technology and then come back to dutch bros >> i really like plantier. i said i like your stock give me a break. but i've got to tell you, dutch bros overexpanded. i begged them not to i begged them. but did they care what i had to say? did they no constellation brands has finally got its groove back. i'm betting the stock has more
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upside, maybe much more, which is why we're sticking with constellation with the charitable trust, even after this big move. my exclusive with another hot one. a company on the mission to expand its brick and mortar footprint, i'm wondering how the strategy is playing out from the company's new brooklyn flagship. and haven't had an incredible rally and some say might have missed the opportunity to get in. i'm revealing the factors that kept many on the sidelines and believe me, those who kept you out, they will not feel good at the supermarket tomorrow when people look at them and say it was you! "lightning round" coming up too. so stay with cramer! power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless.
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those watching this show know i've been a huge fan of the swiss sneaker company with a stock now up more than 92% for the year these guys are rapidly expanding their initial focus on running shoes into a larger set of products, including apparel. i think it's worth taking a closer look. by the way, i urge younger people this would be the stock i would buy. earlier we had a chance to it is down with on holding ceo martin hoffman at the company's newly opened beautiful store in williamsburg neighborhood of brooklyn, not that far from where i live i want you to take a look. >> martin, this is so exciting it's a brand-new store but i have to ask you, why williamsburg >> because we were so excited to finally be here. this is our first real true community store. so of course we have the store over in manhattan and noho but there is a lot of tourists there. and here it's really about
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building the store for the community. really growing with the families in the area. i mean, it's a vibrant city. we have fun and run really every week, every tuesday. it doesn't matter how fast you go, we go down to east river, take you on a nice run afterwards have a good time here together we have a dedicated space on the first floor. and really we took all the learns from all our other stores in and around the world into that store, really highlighting our running competence, running highlighting apparel so super excited to be here. the store is open already. but on saturday, we actually have the big opening party at 4:00 we'll be closed and we're really going >> i want to be clear. you make performance shoes that are often worn as fashion shoes. and yet you make clear that the community understands the performance side in the building itself >> yeah, and it's not the
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conflict what looks good also makes you feel good, makes you move more, really enjoying it this is what we're about it's about igniting the spirits through movement so we want to make you move, no matter how fast you go but we have super fast products here tomorrow, actually, officially available in our stores is the cloud, the shoes that was wearing for her run at the boston marathon just in march this year. but we also have our tennis inspired collection here of course, with wimbledon going on at the moment, very hot >> now i know that right now you've decided let's use those additional dollars for awareness. is this store and others, including london, which i understand gives about awareness for this great brand >> i think this one is really about connecting with th community. >> okay. >> really being here for the families around it, for the neighbors.
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>> i'm a neighbor. >> yes, please come by for if runs and loneliness is a very different animal very huge story, but great success. front story, i've just been in london the highest checkout that we had in the london store was 72 pairs from one person. so it was quite amazing. >> okay. so let's speak about the brand a lot of people feel that you were born yesterday. so therefore you could be the next fila or reebok or black knight, or under armour, all which failed against nike. but you're not a new comer to this biz >> no, we're here now since 13 years. and we have grown extremely steady over time and we are premiere performance brand. so we really pay a lot of attention to our distribution being premium. and retail is an important element now. it really elevates how you experience the brand it's the only place in the
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physical world where you can actually see all the different models, the full apparel line. and we have seen it in london. all of the sudden you have a huge uptick in ecom. harrod's next door makes more. it's really working. >> i know that you're surprisingly aware of the need for gross margins to be up you want to hit a 60 level you're very happy that your big expenses that had to do with covid are all gone now >> totally i mean, really, the organization has much more time to focus on the long-term and growing, and not taking care so much about short-term air freight and port congestion topics. really, we are out of that we can fully look forward again. and this is reflected in our guidance we continue to see really strong demand in the last weeks and, yeah, we're positive. >> you know, i anointed you as part of our group for younger
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people who wanted to buy stocks, because we feel this is the brand. at the same time, there are analysts who keep saying that there is too much discounting. a lot of it is nike saying they're very competitive in my experience, and in my looking at your brand from behind the scenes, i do not see discounting or inventory problems i see fresh new merchandise that seems to fly off the shelves am i right or are people who are, let's say, circumspect about growth right about your brand >> i think you're right. and this is how we see it as well so really, we are clean in terms of inventory in the channel. yes, we have too much inventory in our own warehouse, but it's only a timing issue. it's not old inventory and with the strong growth we are having and the fact that we really control the inflow of inventory, we're in a good position >> the winners in your space have been known to innovate and constantly put out new and better and different the losers stick with the same,
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believing that you must stay with whatever is successful. you seem to be at the forefront with coming up with new brands constantly >> and this is all part of the team and really, we have so strong innovators from all the different areas. material scientists, chemists, biotechnologists and it's really amazing to see what's in the pipeline, what's already there. take the cloud server to shoot at launch earlier this year. it's almost the best-selling model now with the new outsole technology and it's my favorite shoe now. i run it all the time. >> all right i know it's for runners, but tennis wimbledon is coming up will you be represented? >> well, the winner from the french open which was a huge highlight for us, winning the first grand slam we have ben shelton, really a young upcoming american. and really great person. he just -- >> i expect him to be on display
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at the u.s. open. >> and both are playing just right now. so wish them good luck >> olympics next year. i know nikeis excited. will they be surprised to see that on cloud? >> we will be there. we are excited as well. >> why aren't you intimidated by nike why don't you say you know what? no matter what we do, everyone who has tried to take nike on has failed >> we have -- we have really highly innovative product. we have proven we have now the winner from the ironman. we have the winner of the boston marathon we have the winner of the french open in our product. and we have a great engine that is really about creativity and we will show up at big times in paris >> okay. so let's talk about what's happened in america with your brand. i see it everywhere, but i cannot see it necessarily on sports i see it for people who now work at home, who are part of what i
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regard as the lulu generation. do you ever compare and contrast a lulu to yourself >> i actually see it differently. >> okay. >> i just been to colorado i been to portland i been to the oregon coast and i am running every day, so i saw a lot of people running in the products i see a lot of people just wearing it every day but really, a very inclusive mix of people wearing it so it's really great to see where we are in the u.s. i will be flying to china tonight, and it's the first time after almost four years that i will be there. last time we were about 15 people now we're 150 people in china. so i'm really looking forward to seeing how on is expressed there. >> and beijing, shanghai. >> shanghai, xiangtu, hong kong as well. >> what is lightning and rain? >> lightning and rain. lightning is all about creating the fastest products and just,
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yeah, creating that flash, that lightning. but that doesn't matter if in the end it actually rains. and we are commercially successful this is what we call lightning and rain >> okay. i was thinking that rain also could be -- i don't want to overlook apparel because i think that apparel may be an aadjacentsy that could come on very strong. >> totally and we also have great lightning product in apparel and the rain is visible here in the store, or in the first days, 24% of sales were on apparel you see there is much more space here reserved for apparel. so it's really coming. we see the direction, but it's a multi-year project >> i know that nike praised dick's i was surprised to see how many dicks you are in and how many you be. >> right now we are only in a little over 50 stores. so we are expanding, but expanding very carefully for us it's all about durable growth we want to grow long-term. we don't need to chase anything
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in the next one were to years. we're here for the long-term and this is how we steer it. and luckily, we have so much demand at the moment yes in control of our growth >> well, we appreciate your coming on "mad money." it means a great deal. we think your stock is the best in the group, and may be the best in apparel, because it's the growth that you have i think is very sustainable because your business model is new and innovation that's what matters in your business i want to thank martin hoffmann ceo and cfo. you have done a remarkable job i want to congratulate you. >> thank you thank you for coming to the store. (vo) this is sadie, she's on verizon. the network she can count on. and now she's got myplan, the game-changing new plan that lets her pick exactly what she wants and save on every perk. sadie is getting her plan ready for a big trip. travel pass, on.
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>> it is time! it's time for the "lightning round. >> say and -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the "lightning round" is over are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round. i want to start with mitchell in texas. mitchell >> caller: boo-yah, cramer what's up? >> not bad just came back from iceland. it was dynamite. what's happening >> caller: there we go, baby, there we go. hey, i've been using this product for the last year. the company is growing its revenue at 20%, and they're still making a profit, which is crazy. the stock is zoom info what do we think >> man, i got to tell you, that stock is so hated on wall street i think the hate is overly done. but there is no rescuing this stock. it's despised. it needs to put up a huge quarter. tommy in new york, tommy >> caller: yes, sir, compliment you, jim a big boo-yah to you out there, brother. >> thank you, partner. >> caller: calling from the
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great neighborhood of brooklyn we watch your show every day and love it. >> thank you >> caller: this much for your great knowledge and insight on carnival cruise corp >> i like the cruise companies i like them. [ buzzer ] now they have had a very big move carnival cruise has doubled. i say we let it kind of simmer right now. norwegian, people love the haven. i booked but mine was canceled but i like the cruises they're okay let's go to gary in florida. gary >> caller: hey, jim. thanks for taking my call. and i hope you had a great trip in iceland >> so good i've established my fabulous, fantastic. what's going on? >> caller: this company dominates the market when it comes to ev technology and they're at advanced semiconductor process makes them the only game in town, has it become a bit overtraded in investors might want to look across the pond for
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alternatives however, with growing tensions between the u.s. and china and new export restrictions, what are your thoughts on asml holdings >> i like it but i like lam research more and ladies and gentlemen, that's the conclusion of the "lightning round. >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade
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♪ to miss a rally, in my world, it's like the end of jack london's short story "to build a
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fire," because there is no coming back from that situation. in the jack london story, the main character has plenty of chances to save himself. he's been warned not to hike through the uk con in the extreme cold even the dog doesn't want him to go but he does it any way, and it gradually kills him. in my story, to miss a rally, the data is similar, with ample warnings from companies. but many still chose not to participate, causing their portfolios to suffer from the hypothermia of low returns what made them miss the move three things first, they were fixated on the yield curve. when short-term interest rates go above long-term interest rates, we call that an inverted yield and it's often a sign the economy is getting much worse. notice often not always the bears had blind faith in the inverted yield curve would quickly destroy corporate earnings, just like jack london's protagonist had blind
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faith to start a fire while dying of frostbite second, you probably relied on a graphic image, the landing of the plane that is the economy. going this line, you probably believed we were headed for a soft landing, good, or a hard landing, bad but as it turns out, there was a third option with the plane coming down and the first place a bad analogy. the bears never imagined there would be no landing. so the whole framework was dead wrong. the economy is not an airplane we use these metaphors to explain things but when you're too wedded to the metaphor, you can miss out on the obvious third, the bears only paying attention to the federal reserve, and totally ignored everything from actual companies. the fed didn't tell you there could be something like explosion in artificial intelligence and everything related to it. you missed that entire movement if you only pay attention to jay powell of course, it's not his job to bring you investment ideas, which is why it's good idea to watch more than the fed. watch this show. watch the club this time our central bank turned out to be like bad
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weather. you had to pick up your umbrella and go about your business to find good companies. those weren't impacted by powell's hawkishness the winners paid attention to the cards in their hands, not whether it was raining outside and the home builders were the best other than tech which makes no sense if the plane is landing in either situation. now you often hear some idea will work out in the long-term but when you have the biggest first half rally in nasdaq in 40 years, the winning idea has already worked out it's just that you missed it if you bet against tech during this period, long or not. you see, the length of time doesn't matter it's the performance, stupid this time the bears missed something equivalent to when intel developed the 286 microprocessor and/or apple wants the iphone, to use favorite ideas of jenson wong. but there is one more reason why i invoked "to build a fire" jack london right here. when you read that story, you have tremendous contempt for the
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foolish hiker. i have tremendous contempt for the so-called experts who kept you out of this phenomenal move. they forgot what this business is really about. it's about making money in the stock market there are two ways to do it. you can make big bets in the overall market five-year averages, or you can find what i call the matches, as what the matches were in "to build a fire." the individual companies that participated in this rally and light a fire that saves your portfolio. i'm not saying picking stocks is easy sometimes it can be hard to find the matches. but to me there is nothing more reckless than the bears who told you not to even bother trying to find a match, let alone light it because they were so sure that everything would be terrible they did it with reckless abandon against you, because they never thought they would be nailed for it. pure hubris. it was going to come out on national tv and look at the camera and say what the bunch of bozos. well, now that you can consider themselves now bozos, you failed to start the fire. you missed the best first half in four years. i sure hope people didn't listen
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to the so-called experts because you know why you may not hear from them again, because i think they may have to rethink their professions after missing this bonanza. i'd like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm jim cramer zuk goes in for the kill, launching his twitter killer app moments ago. we've got the first look. breaking within the hour, the biden administration appealing a federal judge's decision to limit contact with tech companies as we kick off a second half, there is one market stat that could keep the bears in hibernation. republicans in d.c. putting the practice of so-called socially conscious investing in jeopardy, but why? is gm getting burned

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