tv Street Signs CNBC July 7, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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but the problem then, as now, is time. and this desert doesn't give up its secrets easily. ♪ good morning happy friday welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european equities follow asia and wall street into the red after the steepest one-day decline since march. and one the biggest ipos this year sending shares higher in trade we will hear from the ceo
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shortly. shell expects to book impairments up to $3 billion in the second quarter while flagging trading in the gas division will be lower than the period before. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen urges china to adopt reforms saying the u.s. will fight back against unfair economic practices >> the u.s. seeks healthy economic competition with china, but healthy economic competition, both sides benefit and that's only sustainable if that competition is fair now warm welcome to "street signs. we were prepared for the non-farm payroll report to be the biggest event in the u.s.
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event, but today's adp report closed 500,000 jobs last month more than double expectations. according to adp, private hiring surged 497,000 in june well ahead of the 267,000 gained in may job cuts fell to an eight-month low low. blockbuster data showing the u.s. job market is in good shape. our colleagues in the states were told why we saw a jump in the consumer facing sectors. >> june is a strong hiring month. it happens pretty much every year when there is not a big pandemic closing things down what we were seeing is strength to consumer facing industries. leisure and hospitality which has been strong all year education and health care had a strong month after weakness in
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the previous with the private sector data. these sectors are really people-to-people jobs and consumer jobs. retail hiring. those were the ones that took flight >> we had quite a strong market reaction to the stronger than expected adp payrolls yesterday. essentially investors taking this as a sign the federal reserve will, ifn fact, need to continue hiking rates. the chances of the fed hiking at 89%. highest level to date. we have seen a higher probability of another rate hike in september here is the picture for treasury yields yields moved higher across the curve. 2-year treasury hit the highest level yesterday. right now trading a 4.896% 10-year treasury rose above 4% yesterday. above 4% this morning and 10-year treasury rates hit the
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highest level since 2008 serious moves here to my side, the inversion with the 2/10 year. 4.98% and 10-year at 4%. in the equities, we saw a massive selloff in equities. here you have all three of the major indices stateside lower. the dow jones industrial average pulled back 1% the worst of the bunch s&p 500 dropped 0.8% nasdaq saw selling down .8%. all three of the major indices are on track to post weekly losses clearly the data yesterday has sent jitters through markets what about u.s. futures? how are we looking for the open today? wall street is looking to extend the downturn all three majors are looking to open lower at this early hour.
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as for europe, the stoxx 600 is down .30% yesterday, the benchmark slumped 2.3% to a three-month low. steep selling in europe which is interesting given the data from the u.s. we saw the movement in ecb expectations traders are pricing in a 92% chance of ecb rate hike this month and have priced in a full additional hike through the october meeting. the investment community has taken the signal from the u.s. and extrapolated that for what it means for rates outside of the u.s. we saw movement in the 10-year gilt curve hitting a global high as for the european equities, here is the split. broad based pull back. ftse 100 is down .50%. ibex down 1% we are seeing slightly more resilient performance in the
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italian market, but it is a broad based down turn on friday more than. of course, there is a lot of lead-up to the non-farm payroll report not a lot of cross from the adp report and non-farm payroll report this is the split in europe. basic resources up .760% chemicals and travel holding up okay on the downside, telling that defensive part of the market a reversal of the trade yesterday with the clear risk off signal utilities down 1.4%. media and telco under performing the defensive stocks are lagging this morning as for bond markets, the pricing in the ecb expectations. we are seeing yields lower across the board this follows the selloff across global bond markets.
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10-year bund trading a 1.9%. we will turn to stateside to show non-farm payrolls to 229,000. for more, check out cnbc.com we well discuss how the adp and nfp report weighs on the fed later this hour with melissa davies at redburn. that is coming up at 10:45 here on "street signs." janet yellen has unrged chia to adopt reforms she warned that the u.s. would fight back against unfair economic practices ye yellen's visit comes as the biden administration hopes to repair ties with the nations
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yellen indicated she was seeking an even playing field. >> the exchange can help us monitor economic and financial risks. it can help create the conditions for a healthy economic relationship between our two countries. i believe that's particularly important right now as a global economy faces headwinds like russia's illegal war in ukraine and the lingering effects of the pandemic during this trip, i'm discussing with chinese officials our economic outlooks. as i said in my speech in april, the u.s. seeks healthy economic competition with china healthy economic competition where both sides benefit is only sustainable if that competition is fair. >> sean rains joins me now
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sean, thanks for joining me on "street signs. yellen's visit to china is one of two pretty high profile visits in the last month we had antony blinken make his way over a couple of months ago. how is the reception of yellen versus blinken >> it is good being here thank you for having me. there is a major difference with the two cabinet members for china. when it comes to blinken, he is a hawk and trying to control the economic china growth and trying to keep china's economic and political influence diminished yellen, on the other hand, is viewed as dovish in the chinese government the chinese state media, the last couple days is saying we welcome yellen she is pragmatic she is somebody we hope to work
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with because we hope to get economic trade and economic relations back on track. china's economy is in a weak position new numbers coming out you saw contraction pmi. it was at a 49 number up from may at 48.8. it is still weak and more concerning is the pmi services drop in from 57.1 to 53.9 china is looking for a corridor to open better relations with the united states. >> shaun, it is one thing to be more friendly with the biden administration and another for yellen to have influence over policy decisions how much sway does she actually have at the white house? >> that's a great question the chinese feel that yellen might be more dovish and pragmatic, but the concern is they just don't think that she has a lot of sway on policy making when it comes to national
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security issues and geopolitical issues that is tony blinken who with-- who is a major china hawk. the concern is in the run-up to the next presidential elections in the united states whether it is biden or trump again, you will see more s china's economy is in a weak space with consumer confidence collapsing your audience knows me i am a china bull for the last 25 years, but the last few years, i'm a bear. it is going to be difficult to continue to grow economically. america's trade war and america's sanctions on selling semiconductors to china and the limits on buying cotton.
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as long as that holds over the chinese economy, we will be in a weak position and investors need to be cautious on exposure >> that's really saying something being changed from the biggest bull to bear on china. given the weakness on the chinese economy, is xi jinping and the administration starting to care more about u.s. fdi or are they likely willing to endure the pain for, you know, what it means politically to hold their ground? >> so, china wants american fdi. frankly, how much the chinese view and i view myself is no matter what china does right now, the united states government is not going to allow american companies to invest into china you see kkr, the private equity giant recently announce the shuffling of the management team
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in asia to de-emphasize. seqoia split operations. you saw the head of blackrock just left the china head there's a feeling that the biden regime is strong-arming american businesses not to invest in the china market right now out of national security concerns the united states is no longer a free market economy where businesses are allowed to invest in china because of the low cost or the good value in manufacturing or the market to sell into. anything that's touching technology or anything that the national security council can deem as a national security threat, americans are just not to alollowed to invest there that's why fdi only went up 2% in q1 this year. what is gxi jinping doing he is launching an offensive to
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saudi arabia and iran and latin america and trying to drive a wedge with the united states the prime minister just made a visit to germany because they are trying to attract more fdi from germany and france from countries viewed as potentially more meanable. the uk and canada is viewed as an ally by the chinese government. >> interesting to think about the motivations with the trip to europe closely this month. when i think about the biggest risks for xi jinping, domestic unrest feels like one of his primary concerns if you think about china on the me medium-to-long-term view the youth unemployment rate is at record level. to me, that extrscreams a major
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flag. >> it is a red flag, but it is more than a year now all major revolutions start from middle class people who go to university and can't find a job the french revolution and chinese revolution that saw the communist party come to power. the youth unemployment is a major issue for china because these are people who are raised thinking they would get rich and get great jobs and they can't get them right now i don't think it is a major issue in the short-term. in the next 9 to 12 months, it is okay. china is increasing the number of graduate school programs to apply for masters degrees and increasing the number of positions in the military and state-owned enterprises. you can argue kicking the can down the road, but in the next 9 to 12 months, the economy will absorb a lot of the youth into
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reasonable okay positions. in the long term, this might become an issue if the economy cannot come back on track and find places for the people the other short-term issue is china is able to blame covid and america's attempts to suppress the chinese growth they are not angry at xi jinping, but frustrating with covid and looking at biden as the boogey man and saying this is him that is stopping them from finding good jobs i agree with you, it is an issue if the government can't solve the economic crisis. >> interesting shaun, thank you for joining us of us managing director of market research group. amazon ceo told cnbc the company has limited access to the chinese market and called
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for the rules to be more proportional >> for the businesses we do a meaningful amount of business in china, we have access. what would be helpful is if the rules were simple with what u.s. companies are able to do in china with what chinese companies do in the u.s. there are strong cloud providers who are chinese cloud providers in china chinese companies in china are going have access to a.i. capabilities whether it comes from u.s. or european or chinese companies. >> china's central bank is set to fine a.n.t. group more than $1 billion today that's according to reuters. it comes three years after the regulators stopped a.n.t.'s $37 billion ipo. if served, the fine is one of the largest ever for an internet company. the fine could help lay the foundation to earn a financial holding company license which is
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the first step to a second try at going public. alibaba shares in u.s. are higher pre-market after jumping 6% in hong kong on the news. here is a look for you at hong kong tech stocks broadly you see alibaba shares are up. not a lot of movement in tencent or baidu arjun joins us at the desk i remember when the a.n.t. listing was pulled it was dramatic and caught a lot by surprise. this is a significant step will they finally get to list? >> we just landed at shanghai that time. i dropped my bags at 9:00 p.m. and the ipo was pulled my phone was blowing up. i was trying to find out what was going on this was set to be the biggest ipo in the world it was going to be landmark listing for shanghai market
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alongside hong kong. it got pulled. it was dramatic. it was effectively a two-year long campaign by the chinese government to tighten the domestic tech sector and scrutiny on the giants and power they wielded in chinese society and in the case of a.n.t. group, the chinese government was concerned a tech firm, a non banking firm was offering non-bank services. what we have seen is the pboc this is what we are not happy with you need to fix this they have been working together to come up with a solution the goal is for a.n.t. to be a financial holding company to put them under the purview and direct regulation of the people's bank of china the chinese central bank as well when you look at the path there, there has been back to the ipo, there has been positive signs in that direction in january.
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it was given permission to increase the registered capital for the consumer finance business of the that is seen as a sign the central bank was happy to expand. that is key. when we look at the ipo, it is not something that will happen, but they need to get the financial holding company up and running and they need to beregu. maybe a few months down the line if this fine is done and the road map to a.n.t. becoming compliant with the pboc is in place, then those conversations will start happening i know through the process, i've been speaking to my sources in the investment banking space in hong kong. they are saying we have not heard anything yet much is going on as of yet the focus is, as i understand it, a.n.t. group is figuring out what the pboc wants and working toward that and then those
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conversations will come back of course, the market is not great for the tech ipo the chinese market is worse. a lot of the chinese tech stocks don't have the investor love like the u.s. stocks with the a.i. boom. not necessarily the time in terms of the broader sentiment in the markets toward china and chinese tech companies in particular. >> we know investors love visibility more than anything. even if it is a few years out, the visibility is appreciated by the market arjun, great anecdote about landing in shanghai a couple of years back and bringing us up to speed. we will take a quick break the europe ipo will begin trading as investors look for signs of improvement in the investment pipeline. we'll have more next
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billion swiss francs you have shares performing well this morning up more than 5%. in the energy space, shell expects to post a corporate loss of $600 million to $800 million in the gas division. post-gas impairments will report full second quarter earnings on july 27th. the hydrogen company has made ipo in germany today. the third listing since 2021 shares were priced at 20 euro. shares are holding up well on the first hour and a half of trade. annette joins us from frankfurt with more on the ipo annette, good morning. >> reporter: good morning.
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it is a successful ipo everybody is relieved here on the ground the last ipo which has taken place in frankfurt was not very successful essentially, the story line seems to work well with investors, especially also the two very strong cornerstone investors like the saudi state fund, but also the energy from bnp which owns 3.5%. it should install stability in the stock. i caught up with the ceo of nucera he seems to be confident of the market outlook it is a growing business and people are investing a lot of money everywhere in the world, not only in europe, but in the united states. this is also supporting with the biden inflation reduction act. hydrogen is seen, of course, in the industry as the possibility
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to produce energy intensive such as steel in a carbon neutral manner currently, they are operating the biggest project ever worldwide in saudi arabia and they are confident this is going to work and that this will be the showcase that green hydrogen can be the future for many industries going forward of course, currently, they need to invest a lot of money and that's why they ipo part of the company. >> thank you, annette. we have more coming up she will be speaking to the ceo of thyssenkrupp nucera this morning. the owner of birkenstock is
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european equities follow asia and wall street into the red a dayafter the stoxx 600 notches the steepest one-day decline since march. and thyssenkrupp debuts on the frankfurt stock exchange sending the shares higher in european trade we will hear from the ceo at 11:00 cet. shell expects to book i impairments up to $3 billion in the second yquarter and flagging trade which is significantly
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lower than the period before. and janet yellen traveling to china and saying the u.s. will fight back against unfair practices. >> the u.s. seeks healthy economic competition with china. healthy economic competition is sustainable is only competition if it is fair. let's get a check on european markets an hour and a half into the trading session. we have bounced off the lows seen early this morning in a few key areas. it is still red across the board. every major region is trading lower this morning continuing the selloff from yesterday. it is a global selloff the stoxx 600 has born the brunt to a three-month low it it is not just europe trading
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lower. the u.s. sold off yesterday. we have seen a big selloff across global bond markets a big reaction to the stronger than expected adp payroll report from the u.s. yesterday. now we are seeing big moves in the chemical sector here in europe this morning. there you have two of the best performers in europe in the chemical sector. it is not just those names, but basf up 3% ivonic shares up 2%. they are all trading sharply higher this morning. we are digging into the story to understand what is driving the stocks higher. worth noting the chemical sector is catching a strong bid in clariant's case, shares were called lower pre-market. we have seen a turn around an area of the market to watch from the currency perspective, you have the euro trading slightly light against the greenback at 108.78. dollar steady against the swiss
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franc. sterling unchanged against the dollar at 127.41 u.s. futures, the dow, s&p and nasdaq pulling back after all three ended lower yesterday. all three are also on track to post weekly losses this as futures now see the chance for the fed hiking this month at 89%, the highest level to date, and now pressing in higher probability of another rate hike in september we will see if anything in the nfp report changes that. back here in europe, ecb president christine lagarde says inflation is starting to fall, but still to high and remaining elevated through 2025. lagarde signalled the central bank has work to do to bring down inflation she hadded added terms need to restore purchasing power lagarde will joined bruno le
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marie in france. this is after the riots broke out in france after the death of the 17-year-old in the paris suburb at the hands of police. the movement of the enterprises of france says the riots have cost businesses 1 billion euro in damage. let's get to charlotte now who joins us from france good morning >> reporter: good morning, julianna the economy is showing the difference with this which is free and open to the public forum. many ceos attending and central bank governors attending and members of the government, including the prime minister and several members of the government will be here because they have been hitting the road over the past few days, especially after the riots over the weekend across the country
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the economic minister is in marsaille. he will be meeting with shop owners who have been affected by the riots. the government is trying to speed up claims for the small businesses the message we heard from the government is telling tourists do not cancel. we saw a wave of cancellations over the weekend it is safe now it looks like the tensions have eased very much so over the past few days that is some of the messages we hear from the government here. i had a chance to catch up with the organizer of the conference. i asked over the last year the last time i had a chat with him after the elections to say in the first year of the second mandate of emmanuel macron, how is the french economy doing. >> it was a tough year of the i would say last week's episode was not nice
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the pension reform was difficult for the society last year and we have to take it. indeed, there are still two major issues for the french economy. first one is the fiscal balance. you know, the deficit for france is about 5%. indeed, it is in spain and italy which is too high in comparison. if you take our work in france and you divide by the population, you get 600 hours. if you compare to the uk, for instance, in the uk, it would be more than 800. >> reporter: also i asked about the crises in france the economic data from france is
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positive the french government is pouring money in the covid crisis and shield from the war in ukraine before the crisis, you had the pension reform protests for the last several months and the riots over the weekend i asked him where he thought where the dichotomy here with the economic data and discontent existing in the society. >> there are indicators in terms of inflation and so on due to the policing and the pricing in france with the pressure compared to the other things it is, of course, too high, but compared to the other european economies. it is coming at a cost this is pertinent for the frenc economy and if we still continue to finance problems with deficit. >> reporter: so several central bank governors will be attending the conference this weekend.
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christine lagarde will be here this afternoon she gave an interview in francis you mentioned earlier. andrew bailey will be here we will have some sound comments on the inflation situation impact on the economy over the next few days. we will record a few interviews that we will bring you on monday and the economic adviser to joe biden and the european affairs minister in the government we will have more for you on monday, julianna >> charlotte, thank you for bringing us that sound and beautiful back drop. i hope that the morning goes well we will take your attention back to beijing. yellen continuing the four-day trip to the country. we have yellen saying the u.s. and china should not allow disagreements to lead to misunderstanding to worsen bilateral ties yellen in meeting with the premier li the u.s. seeks healthy competition and not a winner
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take all approach. this is interesting where shaun said in the first segment of the show said that yellen is more dovish and other counterparts in the u.s. these lines from yellen are in line with that back to corporate news samsung has flagged a 96% plunge in second quarter operating profit forecasting 600 billion yuan against 14 trillion yua fn a yer ago. that is the first drop since 2009 this comes as a downturn in the chips sector which could hit the bottom in q3 the numbers were in line with expectations the shares underperformed the korean market. meta shares touched a 17-month high after 30 million people signed up to the new threads app.
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the app doesn't currently carry ads. twitter is threatening to sue meta elon musk said meta breached the intellectual property rights in the cease and desist lawyer, they claim they have former employees with access to confidential information meta declined to comment the ompany's communication director said the allegations are untrue arjun is back with us. arjun, 30 million signups in one day. that is pretty impressive even by meta's standards. how much of a dampener is this lawsuit? what does this is a about twitter and how it sees threads as a threat? >> elon musk sees this as a threat what was smart about the way meta launched this is the link to instagram
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this product has hundreds of millions of users on it. 1 billion, i think, actually by linking it to instagram, it made it easy you don't need a new account you can sign up in a matter of seconds. it pulled in a lot of users quickly to it if a quarter or some of instagram users base went to threads, it would be already bigger there is discontent for twitter. the fact they scrapped the blue checkmarks and brought in the $8 a month subscription and the complaints how elon musk is running the services and other areas where long-standing users have had complplcomplaints they were looking for alternatives we have seen people exploring bluesky, the social media project from the twitter founder
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jack dorsey. we saw people looking at mastedon now you have threads to the party linked to instagram. it is a threat to the company and the timing of this, of course, is interesting given the success that was tout by mark zuckerberg around the signups. i have three points about it, i think, with the particular lawsuit. firstly, one of the allegations is around the fact that musk and twitter are alleging meta hired dozens of former twitter employees with the knowledge of the secrets. it is not unusual, first, for companies to hire other engineers and people from other companies. we have seen that happen all the time that is not unusual. secondly, it is not unusual in the social media space to see companies replicate and copy rival products that are out there. we saw instagram stories when
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snapchat was a threat. we have seen that with meta and product development. thirdly, one of the interesting allegations is the employees had confidential twitter documents with them and moved to meta. that is one of the allegations if these employees left the company taking confidential information, that is a question twitter needs to answer itself about its security practices and some of the confidentiality agreements in place. those are three of the main points about the lawsuit. >> you know, the banking industry, they are always concerned about employees shifting to other banks and tons of movement just as the tech industry there is taking ip with them people take three or six months between jobs to minimize that. the tech space, surely, if it was a real concern, these employees would have those stipulations as part of the contracts. >> certainly the other point here is elon
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musk gutted out twitter as soon as he got in fired a huge number of staff he did it in a way clearly -- it is always hard to get a judge of how upset and angry people are by this of we cannot get an object upset of how these fired employees are. we know there was discontent and grumblings how he gutted many of the engineers and the manner in which it was done. there are a number of employees likely to be upset they will want new jobs and looking around if meta is pouring resources into this thing that can rival twitter, it is only natural they go with their expertise. this may progress into an ongoing lawsuit and see how it plays out. the initial allegations, that is the way that it is all laid out.
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>> it is not clear in my mind because they had 30 million people sign up yesterday that it will be sticking that people will like the platform i suppose time will tell >> are you using it? >> arabile came on set and showed me yesterday. you were off yesterday doing something else he showed it to me that was my glimpse. >> it is a similar product to twitter in how it works and you launch threads and re-post, et cetera it is very messy at the moment it is trying to pull in from instagram. it will be interesting to see how it works out how much does meta go in with those ads? how do they integrate ads and make users feel content? >> great point arjun, i was not implying you
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were off doing something else. he was working he is back today we're going take a quick break. coming up on "street signs," markets brace for more hot job data we dig into the expectations for the non-farm payroll reports when "stre" tus.etrern ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even
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welcome back to "street signs. u.s. ocompanies added 500,000 jobs more than double last month. according to adp private hiring which surged 497,000 in june ahead of the 267,000 in may. attention turns to the jobs report out stateside likely showing the increase after rising 339,000 in may and249,000 in april the unemployment rate is expected to have retreated from the seven-month high down ten basis points on the month. melissa davies joins me now to
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talk through everything that is happening stateside. what a blockbuster report in this adp print yesterday blowing past consensus expectations what is the read across the non-farm payroll report? >> obviously, it was a strong number the expectations built up to get a stronger than expected consensus number today both numbers are volatile. you never really know. considering the market moves yesterday and everybody is positioning for something to come in stronger and really markets are very, very skeptical of what the fed is telling them about rates. there is quite a lot of movement that can happen if we continue to get stronger jobs data. >> there is a lot of reticent to believe that before the last fed
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meeting. how much likely can the market can in two more hikes from the fed given this strong backdrop >> the market should believe what the fed is saying the fed did not help by skipping the last meeting of it would be credible to hike in june and do more the reality is they will have to do more than currently signaling. our expectation is they peak at 6. there is a long way to convince the market and this expectation that the u.s. economy is about to dip into recession is proving to be sticky and difficult to get rid of the data just keeps coming in better with the manufacturing ism yesterday as well. i think we need to see continued evidence that the u.s. economy is holding its head above water and the fed will have to continue plowing on with further rate hikes. >> it is incredible how strong
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the labor market has been. nothing seems to crack it. what could crack the u.s. labor market if anything >> great question. i suppose the way we would see it is there's a very loose monetary backdrop still although rates have gone up. fiscal policy is really loose. with the u.s. inflation reduction act, a lot of money is thrown at things underlying demand is following that there is no reason at the moment for corporates to pull in their horns and layoff workers as corporates are looking out for the next two years they can get away with continued price increases and give our workers decent pay increases we can keep hiring
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nothing severe enough has happened to shock the system and weaken demand or drain liquidity to stop the process. >> melissa, what is your take on the housing market how would you describe the outlook there? >> it is super interesting as a brit, our mortgage market is different five-year mixed is long. in the u.s., you have such long fixes for mortgages. what is happening is because rates were low for so long and people were able to refinance on to very low interest rates and those 20-year and 30-year mortgages are valuable you don't want to move and lose that low rate if you are paying 3% or 4% that is starting to restrict housing market activity and stabilize the housing market and new build activity is picking up
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as a result. there is not sufficient stock. what that means is the rental data pricing is not softening as quickly as the fed expected. that raises concerns about how quickly shelter in place will overall come down. over the next few months, inflation will come down to 3 and it will pick up again t it is a tug-of-war with energy inflation and shelter inflation. the housing market is sticky and puc picking up the more shelter inflation is going to pull down services number is a concern and the more the fed has to do. >> melissa, thank you so much for your views and getting us ready for the nfp print later today. melissa davies from redburn. our u.s. colleagues will tackle the further rate hikes today with chicago fed president
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austan goolsbee. that interview is coming up at 17:30 cet. notable that the cac 40 has crossed into positive territory. we have bounced off the lows in nearly every market. dax now trading below the flat line stabilization after the steepest one-day fall since march yesterday. the stoxx 600 dropped 2.3% jitters across the globe after that stronger than expected adp report stateside u.s. futures at the moment are looking weaker fairly steady. a lot of investors now in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the nfp report that's it for the show i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we begin with back in the red. futures under pressure with the stocks coming off the worst day it weeks investors are looking ahead to the jobs report after the adp beat and what it means for the fed and jay powell and the next move. and janet yellen making the first public comments expressing concerns over the country's recent actions. plus, amazon ceo
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