good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with courtney reagan. setting at again da today, chicago fed president austan goolsbee live at 11:30 we'll talk about today's jobs number. group one automotive ceo darrell cunningham is also with us he'll talk about u.s. auto sales as they surge in the first half on strong demand. and torsten slok is here. let's get a check on stocks, mix with the dow jones industrial down 0.1% the s&p 500 marginally positive, similarly for the nasdaq. meantime, the jobs number, of course, story number one. definitely in focus, coming in lighter than expected. our next guest says while economic data and inflation are slowing down, still not there yet and the fed will continue to step on the brakes until they get what they want

joining us at post 9 is apollo chief economist torsten slok great to have you back. >> thanks. >> some slowdown but not happening quick enough, is that the view >> i think this was a report that basically -- sounds like a soft landing but with high inflation. the consequences the fed wil look at this and say, well, we're still trying to get inflation down it's still sticky at 5% core pc. with back drop, we have to keep hiking rates some things in the report show things are slowing nonfarm payrolls are coming down in particular not with the back drop of several things reaccelerating housing is reaccelerating, autos is coming back, making inflation more sticky and making it harder to go the last mile from 5% down to the 2% target. >> do you think the second half of the year has the possibility of inflation scares? >> i do think there is a risk that if the market now says, well, this is all over, we had a

banking crisis a few months ago and housing is looking better and autos are looking better, hey, maybe the worst is over but the fed will take the complete opposite conclusion and say, no, no, the worst is not over in fact, we're still too high inflation and that's what we need to deal with. >> there seems to be signals the consumer is potentially slowing down that maybe fed policy is finally working to damp down some spending that being said, others have said actually consumers have taken inflation in, they're dealing with it, and they're still buying when they have to. >> and that's absolutely the case because when you think about what's going on is services is still very strong. very strong demand for the 80% of gdp that is restaurants, also airlines, hotels all those things that are sort of revenge travel, revenge pickup after covid and the pandemic situation all that now is still doing reasonably well. the only issue if you begin to look at delinquency rates, on credit cards and auto loans are

going up if the fed does not cut rates, where will that be by the end of the year a lot of things on the consumer side looking weaker. that's a crack in the story that everything is fine >> yesterday lori logan said she believes housing has bottomed. you talked about it reaccelerating are you also in the camp we bottomed in housing? >> the issue is housing makes up 40% of the cpi basket. it will probably come down in the next few months because of all the technicalities of how it's cal lculated in the cpi existing homes sales is going up, home builder confidence is going up, home buyer confidence is going up. the number of offers, bigger homes sold is also going up. all that points to, we have more demand in the housing market inflation could not be coming down as quickly to 2% as we would like. >> your house view is a hike in

july, right and a hike in september? >> we're still watching carefully. we get cpi inflation next week it probably on the headline will come down. core inflation keep talking about is not coming down as jay powell said, we have not made any progress at getting core inflation down over the last six months. it was 4.6 six months ago. the target is 2, so they will come to the conclusion we have to do more the conclusion from markets is rates are going to stay high for much longer than markets are currently anticipating. >> what about wage inflation, stronger than expected. >> that was the twist today quite unusual. yes, employment growth is slowing down that's what you would expect the fed is stepping on the brakes, employment growth has been gradually coming lower. the fact you're not seeing wage inflation go up. you saw wage inflation for low wage jobs begin to reaccelerate in the last three months this is pointing to, if wage inflation is not coming down, that will also for the fed make them feel, well, we just got to

do more to make sure we not only get consumer price inflation and also wage inflation down. >> finally, i wonder if you think the fed's view is colored by the inflation picture in the uk i saw japanese wages doubled expectations anything going on around the world? >> the biggest thing about uk inflation is driven by sterling and pound moving in that case, there are reasons uk inflation is moving in the way it has there's a global phenomenon. we will not see the central banks cut rates any time soon. they are absolutely adamant about we got to get inflation back to 2% i think the market is underappreciating the commitment to getting inflation down from 5% to the 2% target. >> market's beginning to get the picture on cuts, that's for sure, pushing that pricing way out. thank you so much. good to see you. we continue the discussion on jobs with the jobs number the big story of the morning seasonal positions often filled by teens are part of that equation

for more on how employees are navigating that, we are joined by kate rogers from san francisco. >> challenger predicts teens will gain 1.1 million jobs in 2023 that's lower than last year and the lowest level in a decade teens are also working at pre-pandemic levels indicating that those who want to work already are, which means tough competition for employers. teen workers like 16-year-old lexi matheson in delaware are seeing the benefits of that. she got a raise to move to a higher volume of grotto pizza this summer in delaware at the beach. >> i moved down here to make a little more money in tips and that was one of the best decisions ever because it's been a big increase in tips they gave me a little bit of a pay raise. >> grotto pizza's director of human resources said hiring teens has been challenging due to competition >> teens these days seem to be

much more cognizant of the flexibility in their jobs, how much they're going to get paid, the work environment itself. you know, they do have a certain element of, i think, power in their minds where if they don't like something that us as an employer asks them to do, even if it's part of a job, they can easily go down the street and work somewhere else and find alternate employment with the same wages or maybe even a little better. it also keeps us on our toes. >> teens are key for small business hiring, particularly as cour courtney said, for seasonal jobs 500,000 sector jobs are expected to be added through current year end and there's one applicant for every two openings it's a tough hiring environment. >> are there other perks beyond wages trying to attract teens or keep them in their jobs?

it was an interesting sound byte from the hr manager saying teens are aware. >> teens have the power and they know it. small bonuses not unheard of pay well above the minimum wage, and i'm also hearing flexibility. working with these kids' schedule seems to be a key component. it's not that remote work that's been popular throughout the pab but they want be to able to take the time off and work the hours they work. they know if they can't find it in one place, they know they go down the street and find it. we'll see what july's reading brings next month. it's usually key for hiring these seasonal workers participation rate for teens, slightly lower this june than last year. >> i wonder what kind of jobs teens are getting in the summer. as a teen i was a lifeguard, i workeded as a restaurant, a flea market, a score keeper at a baseball diamond are these types of jobs changing

as the economy changes for teens? >> i think you're seeing, as you heard in the last segment there, a lot of people kind of returning to revenge travel, going out to eat more than they were over the last few summers i think a lot of traditional summer seasons at the beach type jobs, in an ice cream stand or restaurant, babysitters, camp counselors, those still stand. the kind of environment for college prep is changing and kids are focusing on what they want to do in their futures so that could be part of the reason we're not seeing kids work in the same numbers as we have in the past. >> really tough to get a handle on some of these trends, kate. great work the fed minutes released earlier in the week did show the majority of members agreed on a skip in june but a hike widely expected later this month. we'll talk to chicago fed president austan goolsbee in a few moments and get his take on how much higher he sees rates going. after the break, auto sales defied a gloomy forecast car sales up 10% year over year.

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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back new data this week giving insight into ev sales.

for that we'll turn to our phil lebeau hey, phil. >> hey, carl the more things change the more they stay the same in terms of ev sales here in the united states by that i mean tesla continues to dominate this market. by now many people thought we would see tesla's market share fall under 60% that's not the case. motor intelligence, which crunches all of the auto sales numbers, says in the first half of this year, tesla's market shares still holding above 60%, well above hyundai kia that moved into second place. i want to show you the top four selling vehicles in terms of electric vehicles for the first half of this year. no surprise model y is at the top followed by model 3. the bolt euv is being discontinued number four, the rivian r1t, the fourth best selling vehicle and the best selling electric pickup truck in this country. interesting we see the sign cyb truck coming out later this year you'll see more competition when

it comes to electric pickup trucks right now we basically have the r1t and the f-150 lightning. in terms of rivian, when you take a look at rivian versus ford, look at the move from rivian since april since april. it's basically doubled in price. that's because the company has reaffirmed its guidance from building at least 50,000 vehicles they've gotten their sea legs in terms of production. the r1t is doing well. r1s is picking up and the electric delivery van. this is a snapshot into what we're seeing with the electric vehicle market here in this country. guys, everybody has talked about this for some time when will we start to see the production from gm and ford? ultimately, stelantis. >> i was going to ask you more about gm and mary barra saying the domestic production of their evs has been constrained because

of the battery production. what are the expectations for when that may alleviate? >> they still say they expect to build basically, cumulatively, 400,000, if you go back to the end of last year all the way through the middle of next year. that's still their guidance. and they are ramping up production, but this is coming a lot slower than i think a lot of people anticipated general motors is preaching patience to people saying, relax, these vehicles will be there. they're not changing their cadence in terms of the rollout of electric vehicles but overall, when you talk with people, when you talk with consumers, the one thing you hear time and again is, it's tesla and then a lot of others tesla still has the hammer, is what i'm saying here that's why you see the model y and the model 3 continue to dominate sales >> phil, we talked a lot in recent weeks about a standard for charging in this country at least. and i wonder if you think that's moving the needle in overall adoption over what we might have gotten otherwise >> i think it helps.

i think a number of people are wondering why we haven't seen the i.r.a. have a bigger impact on ev sales. this is part of the chicken and the egg courtney was mentioning there. you have tesla going full bore in terms of the austin giga factory as well as the giga factory out in california. you have to see others ramp up production you see it with rivian and other automakers but that's what we need to see in order for the acceleration of adoption of electric vehicles. >> thank you, phil for more on what to expect from auto sales and evs in the second half, let's bring in group one darrell cunningham, who oversees more than 200 dealerships in the u.s. and united kingdom. thank you for joining us to pick up on what phil was talking about, what are you seeing with the balance between the demand for electric vehicles and your ability to supply them to the consumers that are coming in looking for them at your

dealerships? >> well, on the ev side -- good morning, first off, thank you for having me. on the ev side we see some supply constraints with oems the f-150 lightning is a good example. we're still sold out for a long time into the future and don't have enough production yet on that vehicle in other cases, you know, phil mentioned hyundai. we're selling lots of ionics in our hyundai dealerships and customers seem to be reacting very favorably. >> when it comes to the market for used cars, what are you seeing there the pandemic demand for used cars was out of control. as someone who was in the market for one of them. have we evened out to more historical levels? >> well, you certainly versus last year and versus right after the pandemic, you're seeing used cars, the dynamic change in that market, you're seeing a little

more pressure on pricing of that market than we had a year ago. where on the new car side there is still a lot of price resiliency there it's a little less than it was on on the used car side you see prices come down some. you see customers shop more on financing options and alternatives as well the supply of used cars is still extremely low. that's due mainly to the reduction of new car volume during and after the pandemic. we just don't have the supply yet of used cars there's still some work to do on the used car side of the market. >> the journal did a piece this week about the scarcity of service technicians. the numbers were staggering. even if you get graduation rates out of academies at good numbers, it would take years to replenish what we need do you see an easy way out of that >> there's no easy way out of it, carl not at all it's one of the largest

opportunities in our business. it's something, at least in group one, we put an enormous amount of effort and focus on. we've been fairly successful hiring technicians we're up about 15% year over year in our technician head count, which we feel lucky to be there. it takes a lot of creativity we have four-day work weeks, training programs, mentoring programs, their pay has to be extremely competitive and you have to be creativity with your productivity in your shops there's -- the industry is going to be short of technicians for years into the future. and especially, i think, as vehicles get more complicated, they get harder to fix that takes more technicians with higher skill levels to do that big industry issue and i think the winners are the ones who can figure out technician capacity and the throughput in their shops driven by a great degree more

productivity. >> when it comes to offering the consumers the opportunity to purchase a vehicle online, i understand you have an omni channel shopping tool, how is that being used and how do you make sure that experience is a smooth one for consumers >> well, we tried the design accelride so it's easy for consumers and we don't force them into options they don't want and it's not a lockstep process. every consumer shops for a car differently. some start at what their financing options are, some start by looking at inventory, some start by wanting to understand what their used car trade-in is worth. one of the ways we measure success with accelride is how deeply customers are engaging. 80% of our customers engage with it somewhere almost half of our customers engage in accelride for half of their purchase, through five different steps. we see more engagement every

single day with accelride, digital retailing, customers continue to vote yes on digital retailing and i think successful retailers will win when they can offer customers those kind of options and choices. customers are clearly choosing that. >> thank you very much for joining us, group 1 automotive ceo. >> thank you for having me appreciate it. coming up next, how the housing market has changed since the start of the pandemic. some new trends to watch as these mortgage rates now cross into the 7% territory. that story's next. and then watching the biotech space. yesterday the fda fully approving the alzheimer's drug medicare also announcing it's now covering the antibody treatment through several conditions that apply in order to qualify

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

welcome back diana olick has a look at how migration trends have changed since the pandemic begin and their impact on home prices. >> hi, courtney. moving patterns are actually holding but home prices are weakening in some of the still hottest migration markets. in part because of higher mortgage rates but also due to the demographic makeup of those moving in. according to a new study from bank of america. take a look at the top five markets for population growth in the first two years of the pandemic that's tampa, orlando, austin, phoenix and las vegas. these markets all saw price home gains from 30% to 50%. they're still seeing population growth, albeit a third as much prices in these markets are now reacting differently in 2021 home prices remained strong and tampa and orlando, but austin saw prices fall vegas and phoenix saw much smaller price gains. why? well, demographics and home building

austin's inflow is largely younger americans, many of whom who are either renting or buying less expensive homes compare that to tampa and orlando where wealthier baby boomers are heading. boosting prices. now, there was also heavier home building in phoenix and austin leading to more supply, which tempers prices as for cities with the biggest pandemic outflows, new york, boston, san francisco, san jose and seattle, in the first two years of the pandemic, prices there gained despite the outflows likely because of low supply last year those markets still lost population. but prices held positive in new york and boston, though they went negative in the other three. that's because pre-pandemic, prices in the west had overheated so much that they had much farther to fall there's also far less supply in those western cities that's all having an impact on prices carl >> yeah, some pretty interesting forecasts for some western cities, which i'm sure we'll talk about in the months to come, thank you. let's get a news update with

contessa brewer. >> hi, carl. the fire on that cargo ship at port newark that killed two firefighters late wednesday night is expected to burn for several more days. it's already been burning for more than 35 hours fueled by exploding gas tanks on the vehicles that were loaded onto that ship newark's fire chief says its department didn't have ak quad tr adequate equipment to deal with those flames. india's federal police arrested three railway employee over a deadly train crash. the accident injured more than 1,000 people and marked india's deadliest train crash in two decades. and thousands of daredevils took part in the famous running of the bulls in northern spain today. these celebrations attracted nearly 1.7 million people in 2022 and expected to see even more visitors this year now that the covid-19 restrictions have

ended. nothing says, we survived a pandemic like putting yourself in the path of a bull. >> yeah, there's no vaccine for the bull goring, that's for sure, contessa we shake our head every year when we come back, chicago fed president austan goolsbee is after the break. how much further is the fed going to raise rates and is today's jobs number an indication that that hawkish policy is working? his answer is coming up next and we continue to watch the markets as we close out the first trading week of july we are mixed but marginally so for e jothmar averages stay with us we'll be right back. stock exche bell ringing ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing )

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let's get to steve liesman with austan goolsbee. >> i am joined by austan goolsbee on the day the jobs report came out. how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. >> sorry we can't be together in studio so you can get roughed up here tell me, the jobs report came out today, a couple mixed signals. you had higher wages, strong wage gains, but also trajectory of lower job gains how do you process this especially when it comes to your outlook for inflation? >> well, steve, we've always said for all the years we've been talking about the jobs numbers, they're plus or minus 130,000 on the jobs number, just in terms of margin for error so, it never made too much out of any one month if you take a step back, it's

clear the job market is still very strong, but is cooling. if you look at the ratios of vacancies to the number of unemployed workers, for example, it's definitely coming down. we're getting to a more sustainable pace, which is what we need to do for inflation. now, you know i've been -- i would at least give people a caution in taking wage data as if it's a leading indicator of where inflation is going to go because historically it's been the opposite it's a lagging indicator of inflation. prices move first and then wages. so, overall i think the job market is outstanding and getting back to a balanced, sustainable level. >> at 200,000, isn't it double the growth of the population and doesn't it suggest -- there was the bernanke paper that suggested wage gains weren't a big part of inflation in the

past but it likely will be in the future does that cause you concern? >> in a ways -- your job at the fed is a beacon to be concerned about everything, so, yes, there are some concerns. i would point out 200,000 jobs, if you just look at the number of bodies is a big number, but the trend over some number of months has been the hours worked going down so, the total hours worked in the economy is not up as much as the total number of jobs so we just have to be a little careful concluding too much from any one month, no. >> take a step back for us, give us your overall view of the economy. we keep waiting for this recession, i call it the guido recession that hasn't come we keep waiting for it the forecasters keep pushing ahead the time when they think it's going to happen is this economy headed for recession? do you see it slowing down right now sufficiently to allay inflation concerns

>> well, the premise of that question is that we would need a recession to eliminate inflation concerns i don't think that there have been leading economists that said we'd have to have the unemployment rate go to 7.5% for three years to get inflation down i think this was a very strange business cycle and what the fed's overriding goal right now is to get inflation down we are going to succeed it to do that without a recession would be a triumph that's the golden path i feel like we're on that golden path so, i hope we keep putting off the recession to forever let's never have a recession again. i'm sure some day there will be a recession, but the fact is that the fed has a bylaw ma mandate, to stabilize prices and maximize employment. coming out of covid, that was a weird business cycle so we can have a weird recovery.

by weird, i mean, we can get the unemployment rate, not in a recession level, and still get prices down. we've partly done that we've got to do more. >> austan, you sound different from a bunch of your colleagues who say inflation is far too high they talk about the economy being resilient and concern about that one particular area people are talking about and i'll add to it, housing. people say housing has bottomed. autos are phil lebeau from chicago reporting that the auto numbers are better are you not having the effect with interest rates on the economy that you would hope to have given those two interest rate sensitive sectors are not showing weakness >> that's a complex question, steve. and i would say, first, inflation is still too high. i agree with my colleagues i consider the fmoc the world's greatest deliberative body i have massive respect for my colleagues on the fmoc

we debate these issues we're trying to figure it out. autos in the chicago district, we have the most auto production of any district in the nation. that's a slightly complicated. if i had told you in previous times that they were going to raise interest rates 500 basis points in a year, what do you think will happen to auto purchase, you would say, it would collapse because auto finance would get so expensive because of the supply chain shortages, autos were already so down that this is like how injured are you if you jump from the window of your basement? not that injured so, they've actually come back some the housing side is a little more complicated because when the interest rate changes, it affects both demand and supply and you've seen that, the supply of housing for sale has been limited because people don't want to give up their low rate

mortgages. so, we do need to get the economy to a stable balance. i just want to emphasize, steve, we've been doing it. inflation is down somewhat it needs to come down more but we've done it so far in a way that hasn't caused a recession. that's 100% the goal so, we're going to get inflation down we want to do that in a way that doesn't cause a recession. >> i get that. >> and there's a lag to monetary policy that's your question, i think, there is. >> i get that, austan. but when i look at the inflation numbers, especially the inflation numbers highlighted by the chair. the core services ex-housing, it's flat lining at a relatively high level when you look at those two numbers, yes, the headlines come down but not the core services sector does that not cause you concern? >> yeah, but look, be careful. let's remember, before there was ever covid, we had about 2% inflation. that was made up of the three components

housing was growing 4%, 5% services were growing 2% and goods was deflating. that's how we got to 2%. all three of those went way up it's true services are down and now they've been persistently, let's call it, 4.5%. housing has been way up and we think it will come down just because of how the series is constructed. but that would start showing up in the fall. the main reason why inflation has been more persistent that we anticipated in this near term is that goods inflation has not come down as much as we thought. so, i -- over the next two, three months, let's keep our eye on the goods inflation number to figure out if we're still on the golden path or not it's not services. services, our forecast is that that will be relatively persistent and it was persistent before the

pandemic, too. >> austan, you sound in some cases very at odds with some of your colleagues. when you walked into that room for the fed meeting, did they make you sit on another side of the table there? is that -- >> i don't know why you keep saying that. >> because i'm hearing people -- >> a lot of what my colleagues say. i respect them a lot. >> i get that. i'm not saying you don't respect them >> you want them to put a dunce cap on me. they don't do anything like that. >> no, no, here's the thing. 12 of the 18 forecasts have two more hikes in. you don't sound to me like you have any more hikes in. >> no, no. i disagree with that the consensus of almost all the fmoc in the statement of projections is that over this year we will have one or two more hikes i haven't seen anything that says that's wrong. that is on the golden path, that where we get inflation down to something like our target and we

do it without a recession, that will be a fed triumph. that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year. whether they happen in july, september, december, in a way it doesn't -- the impact of that doesn't have as large a magnitude as the broader picture that the market agrees with the projectionof the fmoc that we have -- we have to figure out when, but there are some modest increases to come, but we've done a lot of the lifting and now we're waiting for the impact >> okay. so, a couple weeks ago, austan, in some interviews you did, you were not decided about july and what you would do there. have you made up your mind are you leaning one way or another in terms of how to move policy at the next meeting >> i would say we're undecided, we're weeks away and we got some important series coming on prices, which have highlighted

that's the main thing we want to see now is are we making progress, especially on goods inflation but all on the inflation side that's the law of what we got to do >> so, you're willing to live with higher services inflation and have it be offset by goods inflation, that's your outlook here >> well, i mean, our target is 2% inflation that's what we have to get to. and by some combination. my observation was that before covid, services inflation was well above 2% on a steady basis because it was weighed off by goods inflation being as low as it was and housing inflation being lower than where it is now. >> let me just ask you a question about -- it's a bit of inside baseball question i want to understand, austan, how you're thinking about the real funds rate. where do you deflate it by is there a target you have in your mind? not necessarily for the nominal rate, but is there a real rate that you're targeting so when inflation comes in, we can

understand, are you at, near, above or below your target for the real or inflation adjusted funds rate >> i think you got to be careful not to create a circular thing that you say, well, what is the real rate you're targeting, what does that mean for inflation, then what does inflation -- well, it depends on what you set for the real rate of the target. you don't want to create a definitional circle. my view is the fed's job by law is to make sure we get inflation down to a stable price basis and to maximize employment so, to do that without creating a recession. that meant aggressive rate hiking for a year. about as aggressive as we have ever seen. 500 basis points in a year and when i set the goal, it's with that in mind. it's not targeting what the real rate should be the target is to get the inflation rate down and to

maximize employment. so, whatever real rate needs to be to do that, that's the real rate >> austan, there were two things some folks in the market might think would stay the fed's hands. one of your colleagues suggested that's not any additional -- not much more tightening coming from the lagged effects of higher rates or the rate hikes. also not much effect coming from tightening credit standards. how do you respond to that >> i've seen people argue that as you know, that's a massive area of economic research and has been for decades one of the lags of monetary policy in her presidential address for the american economic association, christie romer said the lag averages about two years. i don't know i think some of the aspects that you highlighted about interest rate sensitive sectors and are we going to see shoes drop in those interest rate sensitive sectors, we haven't seen the shoes drop, so i still think

there's a decent chance that there's a fair amount coming through the pipeline if you are in the camp that thinks monetary policy lags aren't long, i guess then my question to them is do they think monetary policy is ineffective? we raised 500 basis points is their view that this is all there is and 500 basis points doesn't reduce inflation i mean, that's -- that seems odd to me. >> austan, thank you for joining us we'll see you again soon hope hofully next time in chicago or back here in new york. >> you bet. >> austan goolsbee, chicago fed president. back to you. >> thank you very much, steve. great interview. great insight. still to come, levi deep in the red. we'll break down the results and the outlook for the entire retail sector. check out some of the best performers on the s&p for the week you'll see some regional banks in there with a pretty good

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the funding environment for startups does remain tight looking at first half data from pitch book, deal activity is subdued. startups at the earliest stages. growth investors are raising less money in fact, they're on track for the lowest fund-raising total since 2017 softbank is not sitting on the sidelines. the founder and ceo said they're going back on the offensive after being in defense mode over the past few years and overseeing massive losses at the vision funds true to his word, $170 million raised in a series b round from a group including softbank this all raises the question could this be the beginning of masa's return, his aggressive playbook, eventually led to tens of billions of dollars of losses for the fund or will his apreach be more disciplined this time around so a lot of that may depend on

a.r.m. and how much investors decide it's worth softening. the chip company this year and between the generative ai hype in which a.r.m. playing a role it could be a lucrative source of cash to pursue more deals guys, a potentially new development this morning, a billion dollar fine from the chinese authorities. it's a lot but it potentially clears the way for its eventual ipo, and that could indirectly help softbank because, stay with me, alibaba owns a third of ant and softbank has a stake in alibaba. that share price bump that we're seeing of 8% is good news. >> i guess, dee, it makes you wonder whether or not if he is aggressive in the next round, whether it will be tech centric or include things like real estate and delivery like it did in the past. >> reporter: you can bet, i'm fairly confident in saying this,

it will be tech, ai, robotics focus. he's been talking about ai for many, many years generative ai slightly different story. they don't have a ton of investments in that space. this 300-year vision he talks about includes sort of the shift to artificial intelligence that he's been talking about. but, you're right, in the past it's been a lot of gig economy, a lot of delivery. so e-commerce as well although they would argue e-commerce is related to ai. we'll see. i guess the key, though, are they going to be writing the kinds of checks they've written in the past, hundreds of millions of dollars up to billions of dollars. >> dee, earlier this week you were talking about the one area of startups that were getting funding was in ai. if masason is interested in the area, how will he be looking to value these companies? will it be as traditionally we've seen that value or, again, will it be a finer focus on the path to profitability? i mean, how do you look at this?

this is an area that's exciting. hey, maybe we've learned some lessons in the past. >> reporter: it's a great question it's also an area that is already very, very hot i mean, some of the folks i talked to here in the bay area say there's already a bubble and you see a lot of investments in companies that are free revenue, not profitable, but the space that has given a pass because of the promise question remains, are some of the features or products, and that tripped up softbank in the past is investing in companies that don't have sustainability or even business models. >> interesting stuff, dee. thank you very much. you know we're going to continue to talk about this for many, many months to come. up next, levi's shares are falling. the stock is in the red. is this a sign of things to come, or more of a cpa ecicto in that's next. new projects means new project managers.

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i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i'm like, "why do i need salt? like, who is going to do that?" she literally would make me rip open a pack of salt, pour it in my hand, and i would, like,

lick my hand. sure enough, i would always be the kid not cramping, i would always be the kid energized, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to a drinking lmnt. levi's falling fast this morning down more than 7%. the stock down after the company lowered its full-year guidance amid a slowdown in its u.s.

wholesale business but on last night's "mad money" the ceo said he's optimistic about the company's direct to consumer future. >> our direct-to-consumer business and our international business are really fueling our results. we're continuing to see really strong direct-to-consumer growth across all regions, even here in the u.s. where we're challenged in u.s. wholesale. our main line business in the u.s. is growing. and comeping positively. >> even as jpmorgan lowers their price target, they call the brand best in class and guggenheim and stifel are more bullish. some interesting nuggets here in the call i think it's very interesting that they're reducing prices on some of these brands, which is really among the first brands that we've seen call out these price reductions after some time being able to sort of capitalize on the brand equity and increase prices, which really helped

margins. i'm wondering if that's the beginning of the trend we're going to hear from others. >> a lot of question about inventories clean enough for back to school the way lulu, nike and levi's have all stood by their china business even with the doubts about the recovery there >> surprisingly so, too. a stronger recovery than they had hoped. that's not necessarily the case with every brand that's seeing a choppier recovery than they had expected in china, so i'm really curious to see what we'll hear from the bulk of companies when we get deeper into the earnings season l levi's to come out of the gate with the calendar a little off other names. >> ahead of retail sales coming up in the coming days is real wages are on the climb again >> absolutely. >> at least they're positive, in the sweet spot where the wages have been steady, but goods deflation happening, as austan goolsbee told us does that lead the consumer to be more aggressive we'll find out >> the lower wage consumers, or

lower wage employees are seeing those wages rise which i think is very interesting in this era of still high inflation. >> of course it just leads to us next week, very eventful, full week cpi and bank earnings on friday get some rest over the week. back to post 9, "the half" and frank holland once again filling in for the judge all right, thank you very much, carl welcome to "the halftime report." i am frank holland in for the judge, scott wapner. did today's jobs report give the fed the green light to resume raising rates? our investment committee is standing by. joining us a full house, josh brown, bryn talkington, jim lebenthal, kevin simpson and steve weiss. but first, let's take a check on the markets right now. we have seen a bit of a reversal in a few indexes, seeing the nasdaq up almost half a percent, reversing from being in the red earlier today. we're seeing the s&p up fractionally however, the dow is still down fractionally the big story, though, rates the ten year back above 4%