tv Fast Money CNBC July 7, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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fail. >> leslie picker, thank you. also next week, morgan, prime day, which is part of the reason andy jazz si was one with us yesterday we'll see if traders continue to trade down. >> we had a gaggle of fred speakers meantime, all the major averages finish the day lower, the week lower as well. that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> "fast money" starts now. >> right here on "fast", fine and dandy. could china slapping antech with a fine be a good thing the answer may surprise you. rivian shares charging higher, up more than 80% how long will this ev revival roll on? we'll debate that. chart master waiting in the wings with the chart of the week them one a classic case of so bad it's good. the big rereel is moments away we're live at the nasdaq market
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site on the desk -- stocks unable to hold on to gains with the dow shedding nearly 190 points after this morning's jobs report we're going to get to today's action in just a moment, but first, a landmark ruling out of china. authorities there announcing fines totaling more than a billion dollars against com companies alibaba and on the group and tencent. the worst is now over for the tech sector? china? shares of alibaba soaring. best day since march tencent, pdd china giving the all clear we'll start you have off with tim seymour. what do you think? >> i have been investing in some of these china tech names for
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decades, and this is a very important moment, because there's been an overhang as related to, and it's been through different platforms of the chinese apparatus, whether it's ppoc. chance to lean on tech companies, some of the biggest in the world coming to terms, coming to a settlement that, by the way, is very manageable for companies, baba and tencent is very important. if this was its own just -- a settlement after four, phi year of very difficult times that would be reason to be excited and be cautious, but the fact that also in the last month and a half we've essentially had the approval essentially of a change in the board at alibaba, we talked about jo tsai coming
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back we've talked about the board montization of the bubble. investors can start to do realistic sum of the parts a few weeks ago, numbers out of ali cloud alone gave you a 30% sum of the parts before you began to value the other pieces. great news on both sides of the train, meaning i own it higher up >> it was interesting the statement put out by tencent it said it's looking forward to a period of normalized regulation it is a sign that beijing is keeping to its word when regulating these companies at this point we could etch look for ant to -- its plans. >> might be a slight projection. i will say, if you look at the last quarter of earnings, you
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have $31 billion of free cash flow, so this seems like a minor -- don't want to say slap on the wrist, can royal markets, but is definitely on the lower end of what a we might fear would happen with that said, i think the whims of beijing still loom large. so, i think this definitely clears it from being uninvestable but when you're looking at sino/u.s. relations right now, we're still in the thick of that this is a somewhat temporary resolution there is somewhat of an overhang, but clearly gives you a little more visibility than previously. >> investing is always a relative game. at this point with tech in the united states where it is in terms of valuation versus tech in china where it is, does it all of a sudden give us an alternative? >> definitely gives you an alternative. when you look at the price action, to bonawyn's point, i
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don't know if you could say there is true closure in this. how far out do we see this being really the decision? if you look at alibaba, in january it was a $120 game traded down as low as 80 bucks you go to the halfway point, maybe you got another $10. if you're trading it, i wouldn't leave these unattended i wouldn't say that the smoke has cleared, because the truth is, nobody at this table can say that in a week from now, the chinese government is going sto say something else that's the fear. you're always dancing around minefields in the mark, period in china it's kpexacerbated, exponentially more difficult people have been itching to get back to alibaba and this seems like the time to get back in at
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least short-term. >> tim, what's hot in the u.s., a.i. -- there's a would you rather because the valuations are very different, right at this point. it's a big trend if you're a big believer in a.i. >> i'm a believer in a.i i believe there's some merit to the spend that people think is attached to a.i. and it's going to resuscitate some of the spend. et cetera. when it comes to tencent alibaba we're talking about two of the most sophisticated tech companies in the world hubris, this is what you hear about a company that's flying ahead of the government and a merging markets. it's something you don't do and something you suffer for they've suffered mightily for it the fact that these companies haven't been dismantled -- you can make an argument that the sell-off that's going to be
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essentially spinning out these various entities is part of that, and the government's going to need to get paid long the way. the government is inviting a process that they actually believe is going to add value, and to be clear, none of this would be happening if the government wasn't all in for this happening so i think this is good news this hasn't happened overnight this isn't a headline today. this is a headline that's been taking place over the last year, year and a half. i'm not going to tell you it's pound the table. i'm going to tell you there are technical ways to trade this we talk about baba as a trade. at 95 you break that downtrend from march and you've got room up to the 120s but on valuation it's not even close. it's very cheap. volatile day at home indices closing at session lows. the dow closing down 2%. the losses coming after the release of the june jobs report.
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nonfarm rolls. is this going to be interpreted by the fed as a slowdown, the one they have been looking for will they still feel like they need hiking here >> no. and the revisions were posted lower as well. i think they're going to raise it i think they're going to take whatever the market is going to give them, and i think it's in the cards for them to raise. do they raise two more times, though that's the question for me. >> tim, we were talking to dave rosenberg who was definitively bearish at this point. he was saying he looks at the workweek, the numbers really give you concern. >> yeah, he did say that in fact it was kind of a little relief on the deathbed of the wor workweek, because he was right to point out ffts at lows you take away one-tenth of the workweek and it gets you back at the middleof the range you still have a little heat there for the fed. you have as steve pointed out, downward revisions on top of a
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lighter number i think you have a little something in here for everybody. 25, 250 basis points by the fed, i don't think it matters here. they will overstay the party, but it was a week where you had a better ism the employment numbers we had. you had an auto sales number, i think we're going to talk hater in the show, up 20% year over year on sars you can't tell me the economy is falling out of the bed goldman is saying basically this is market goldilocks you've got inflation easing, outstripping the growth easing and that's the kind of market momentum that's giving this market the fuel it needs. >> yeah, and the setup here is better than earnings season. could be some disappointments -- i'm sure there will be some -- will give us better price action. >> that's the thing, expectations are drastically
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different than the last two earnings season. i don't think the market is expecting that the economic data to date has been pretty robust to the data point today, listen, i just don't think you can have it both ways either you believe the economy is strong and as a result the fed will continue to push on the gas, or you think there's a declining economic situation and a declining labor market for me i think the fed is still going to continue to take this as a singular data point, which it is. continue to raise points higher. verse taking the contrarian side next week earnings will give us something to focus on, but the fed looms large. >> oh, look, karen finerman has joined the situation are you here, karen? >> no, i don't think i am. >> we tried. we tried but i was saying grasso, it's also cpi we're expecting next
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week and looking forward to and ppi. >> are we going to karen is she there >> does she know we can hear her and see her? >> this is one data point to bonawyn's point -- there are going to be others that are going to fuel the necessity for the fact to raise, and the truth is we all know it. it's so telegraphed. the fed is always late to act and late to stop acting. you know who needs it the most the fed, yet yet they continue to do it, so i would expect nothing other than the same we've seen from the fed. >> respite from the climb we've seen, tim. >> you can make an argument that that two-year needed to close above that 506 level yesterday, and it didn't. i think we're range bound. the curve's flattened out. the old curve watchers have a little am nation for their story. again, it was a week where the
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economic data for the most part was friendly, friendly for at least a world where when you have inflation -- again i go back to that ism number. the highest number of the ism was -- the inflationary component was back to march 2020 you're seeing inflation in some measures really behave here, and for a market that's been driving a lot of the momentum around these numbers, i think you have had more you've got cpi next wednesday, and until we get a meeting at the end of july, there's room for improvement. doesn't mean i don't think you have leading indicators telling the story of a recession, it's the market i have, and i think it's a market that can go a bit higher. coming up, the ev race heating up where tesla take the crown or legacy automakers ready to catch up plus, we task the chart master with coming with up his own chart of the week.
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money. rivian all revved up the stock rallying more than 80% in that period and locked in its best week ever tesla also having a good week. how do these ev darlings stack up against the legacy automakers >> here in the u.s., ev sales for tesla, nothing's changed they still dominate the market we asked just pull the ev numbers. what does it show us tesla still controls this market 64% of all evs sold in the u.s. are made by tesla, and they're way, way ahead of the competition. hyundai moved past gm to number 2. gm, volkswagen tesla are adding incentives. there's a report out of china
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that although there's been a discussion of putting a floor in on evs, there's reports out of china that tesla might have been adding incentive there is to move out of the company in shanghai no word from the company this is going to be a brutally competitive market for some time to come despite the fact talk of a truce. let's talk about gm and ford both stocks moved higher after marringen stan sli -- they didn't do it because of the ev business they did it because of the legacy business and still see strong pricing for the vehicles from gm and ford, and especially when you look at where they are on trucks and suvs the internal combustion engine market remains very strong you talked about rivan
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look at the numbers. best selling ev truck. when you look at the first half sales, rivan's 1-t easily outsales the lightning one data point, shares of rivan, shares are up 50% in the last five days. >> i wonder how the invention of the cybertruck is going to impact the battle there and if people think of that as an actual pickup. >> well, it will have some impact, but the bigger impact is going to be two things one, what happens when you really start to see production ramp up for the f-150 lightning and then the electric silverado. after that you've got the electric ram truck so it's coming but it's not coming soon. karen i think is back.
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>> i'm back. i was really early, and then i don't know, i screwed it up. >> your thing wasn't charged. >> you're here now happy to have you. what are your thoughts on gm should we count them out >> you can't count them out. it is gm after all but it is disappointing. the internal combustion business is a melting ice cube, so it seems, but it's trading at a ridiculously low model the problem is gm said for a while, we're going to be all ev and continually delay that even though they're putting up great numbers, the frustration for me is anyone who's buying gm crossovers, trucks, whatever now, is sort of a new ev customer loss for however many years they're going to have that car. so that's a little bit frustrating, and the clearly the pandemic in the middle didn't help any a that.
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frustrating. same for ford. tim can talk to that. >> in case you missed the show yesterday, grasso sold all his apple, bought rivan. first question yesterday was, did you sell any >> the answer is no. this stock has been so beaten down, i think they're the returns that are going to make up the most ground could you see retracement in the stock price? of course you can. but i also could see the stock at 50 bucks and nobody would ask a question why. >> coming up, it's friday. you know what that means we've got a chart of the week, and the chart master himself will give you the trade he thinks is build for big gains. litter, the kickdown to earnings season wave got strategies on how to play tseeptshe ror more "fast money" after this
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we were intervening in the course of human history. detonator's charged. 3... 2... 1... welcome back to "fast money. time to reveal our chart of the week, and who better to pick that out than the chart master himself? he's got a trade that he thinks is on the up and up. carter braxton worth of worth charting. >> i could have done a curveball and did a chart on cpi, but i didn't. >> that's true. >> i wanted to look at reeds we've got two charts before we look at them, it's important to say this. there is a common assertion that they're desperate to underperform when rates are rising that is not the case the first chart is the chart of the week if you will, at least as picked by me.
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it is showing a ratio of ryr to s.p.y. you are down, down, down i believe you play a reversion let's look at the a chart of r yirks r and discuss the bet here well defined highings and lows and now we're starting to move above that downtrend line. back to the notion that rates are rising, you have to have underperformance 2021, ten-year yields went from 1% to 2% let's take 2009. interest rates doubled and yy paced the s&p. the big move up in interest rates is not a guarantee that rates understood perform our rates really moving up that much more are generally in the peaking process.
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if that's the case, guess what was the best performing sector this week? rates are, with interest rates moving. >> karen, this is music to your ears. >> yes it's interesting when the two things meld, which is part of my these was the sentiment couldn't be worse couldn't pick a senator that had shorted and was shorted. i went in with boston properties because they're the premier name, never missed a detective vend own extraordinary properties >> i think it's interesting. i might look at this the other way around you look at sog, which has outperformed, i think there are going to be opportunities to do.
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that we talked about this on our previous show where they're able to move things on spbs you're on balance sheet assets and wrightdowns don't necessarily hit one for one. with that said i do expect there to be continued challenges, particularly with debt ballooning in the next few years. so i think that if you want to take a speculative bet, i'm with the two of them. wouldn't be a core position for me write yet. >> carter? >> there's a lot of disparity. there's apartment rates, storage rates, and so forth, so obviously picking the right ones will matter. >> good caveat we'll see you soon on "options action." meantime, final trade. let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> i'll emphasize the alibaba conversation i think the tide has turned and, i don't think you have to jump in tomorrow, because these things are going play out. alibaba. >> karen finerman? >> next week going to see bank
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earnings i'm going to go with the guy who brought me jeremy diamond. >> production issues, supply chain issues are now for the historical fords and gms in the world. steve grasso. >> a stock aye owned forever, tse, has been underperforming to say the least. don't go anywhere. "options action" sup next.
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right now, stocks live to close a shorten holiday week as investors worry the fed might not be done raising rates. plus, revved up over rivan the stock rocketing higher this week is there still room for this car and truck maker to run we'll debate that. later, meta's monster move we'll take a look back at the
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