right now, stocks live to close a shorten holiday week as investors worry the fed might not be done raising rates. plus, revved up over rivan the stock rocketing higher this week is there still room for this car and truck maker to run we'll debate that. later, meta's monster move we'll take a look back at the

strategy i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, mike khouw, carter worth, and brian stutland joins us in house. investors fear the fed may be returning to the hiking cycle. we also saw bond rates spike, housing dip, and energy rebounded a bit all this happening as a new earnings season kick off late next week before we get to the chart, what are your key takeaways from the holiday shortened week mike, kick it off for us >> from an options perspective it was a very light week with those who think that there is probably another federate hike coming up, i tend to agree with that, although the jobs report today probably helps them feel like they're getting some of that job done you know, we still at 3.6% unemployment, still with inflation around 4%, they are going to have to probably put in another 25 basis points. not in my view the 25 basis points when you are where we are

around 5% makes that much of a difference, but signals that hawkish tone i think they want to preserve, and i think that's going to create pressures as we look forward >> yeah, i think they have this hawkish tone, but i don't know necessarily that they're going to be that hawkish when you look at some of the things they're doing and the way the rest of the market is behaving -- we'll get into the weakness of the dollar -- unemployment is still good vix and volatility, spike, still in the teens the dollar is weaker i think what the market is saying is the fed is not going to do enough to raise rates, spook people out, create this recession that people keep talking about, and the market might keep chugging high intercontinental maybe it's time for commodities to bottom out and move up, too maybe disinflation and everything they're trying to control, they may not be a great job of doing that, and i expect it to stay up for quite some

time. >> do you think they stuck the landing? >> in the sense that they were basically able not to raise rates high enough. they should've gone further, gone more. we'll still see confusion in the mark place, but that may be good for stocks volatility, as low as it is now, and what some of the growth names have done, i think they have stuck the landing to some degree, and i think the market's got more to the upside. >> i don't know -- it's not my area, but i would say they almost never stick the landing my hunch is it's not going to be pulled off so either somehow it is -- the market is ahead of the facts and the facts that are coming out. we know there's a lag time to interest rate tightening cycles and that will ultimately come out of the wash. complicated for mixed week u.s. dollar, single biggest security bond market doubled that

currency market doubled that that makes the dollar the big thing, and the dollar got crushed even as ten-year yields moved up immediately what was the best performing sector reits. there's all this interplay, and at the end of the day, do you make the bet we're weakening or going to continue on my hunch is equities are pricing a lot, generally, and one is right to harvest gains, take profits. we have lots of charts >> lots of them. dollar yields, all of it >> let's go through. dollar, very bad week. you see it here on your screen we know that the 100-day moving average rolled over. rallied to the dxy and hit its head failed to the penny at that trend. now, we also know that rates -- let's look at two ways to draw the lines on ten-year yields first would imply we broke out from converging trend lines.

if you look at another way to draw the lines, we're basically still not at the high. that's the other question. are those highs going to remain the highs? that's my hunch. we're still in the topping process. what we did see interestingly, and this is important, that energy related instruments, whether it's not gas bottoming, oil -- you can look at the oih and so forth -- all had very big weeks and this is an important theme, contrarian theme, and speaks to value among other things >> let's stick with energy mike is eyeing a name with one of the biggest jumps with we saw this week. what's the stock >> i was taking a look at haliburton i think we mentioned this at the end of last week when somebody was asking us about natural gas, which didn't rally today if it is starting to bottom -- one of the things that could cause that if we do see cooling

demand, hot summer that could increase a natural gas demand. the the production hasn't been rallying, haliburton would be a way to play it if you think it will catch a bounce here they're more exposed to fracking, heavily exposed to domestic production. 50% of revenues or so come from the u.s. the company is cheap if it is live to the -- we talked about and basically taking a look at capital return to shareholders, probably in the neighborhood 950 million bucks full year between share purchases and dividends. so i think they're going to be reporting earnings on july 19th. right now, options are as cheap as they have been since the pandemic so i like playing a call spread here to play for additional upside i was looking for the 34-40 in september. i was looking at that earlier today. the stock was i think under 35 bucks a share when i was looking at this.

about $2.40 a contract your mileage may vary depending writ opens monday. it's trading at probably 13 times estimated earnings if you're inclined to be long natural gas, that's a name clever to it. >> you like the charts here, carter >> haliburton has the circumstance of being an underperformer over the past 12 months but a big day today, and i think they're -- >> ryan, who you think of the trade? >> i think where the fed might not stick the landing is on inflation. if i'm going to sbie inflation, i'm going to play energy i like haliburton. i like the call spread you could shift higher and do two of the call spreads. this would be something i'd be looking to add to a portfolio. >> let's look ahead to next week's earnings season the group kicking off next week with a huge group of names

reporting, brian's been taking a look at a name with a big connection to the reits. >> black rock. trends with the rest of the financials seems to outperform the rest despite a big portfolio in the real estate market this is a stock you can own. if you want to capture premium, they have earnings coming up i don't think the stock is going to run away to the upside, but i think there's some option premium. they're trading 30 days out. you can collect 3%, 4% premium on your money here maybe sell a put at a level you want to get long this stock and play that to the slight upside. >> what kind of relationship does black rock have with yry? >> not high. they're a huge owner but tracks more closely to other asset managers and such.

>> right how does the chart look? >> pair of 2s. >> oh, a pair of 2s. brian, how does that make you feel >> pair of 2s could be okay if it goes lower. >> when you have a pair of 2s that's when you want to sell premium. take advantage use options to make a little more. >> if you're not going to do anything, i guess that's what you do. >> people say sell in may and go away with options it's something that can create a tail wind if you sell premium because you're collecting a little bit of that every day, and i think a name like this one is one of those names you might look at doing that in some of those places you aren't seeing premium at that attractive a level, but this is one where it's not going to move around that much. another surging space. the ev trade, the top five options names in the auto space for all ev makers. big moves. tessa leading the charge up a

whopping 125%. rivan not out of it yet. what have you seen, brian? we talked about tesla last week. talked about buying call spread. i still own the stock. i think the other names are playing catchup. and when we got the numbers on the vehicle production for other ev makers, they were good for rivan, and i think you saw the stock take off on that i think there's ways to use options to your advantage here after the stock has already moved. almost feels like a meme like stock explosion the last few days, and i would use options instead of owning the stocks at this point i was looking to continue to play to the upside use an upside call to continue to play that upside, but also offset that by selling a downside put, specifically looking to a trade out to december, selling the jan 20 put. net/net collection premium

stocks sit still i earn money i don't have to own the stock unless it breaks through 20 on the downside rivan, i think they pushed the corner you're seeing growth in production it's a great luxury car. if you haven't seen it it looks fantastic. i think the $20 level seems like a level where the stock hangs in for good. >> they did reiterate their full-year guidance for delivery. that's good. carter, was this a breakout? looks like you're going to laugh. >> first, this is important to note i almost -- 100% of time have no conflict of interest i'm actually short rivian today. one point against me moved down, and i'm going to stick with this. unfilled gaps, it's feeling euphoric, impetuous. you said meme stock. if it's that, then trouble ahead. obviously we heard it's the

best-selling electric truck. we don't know what happens to the f-150 lightning. the point is a lot has happened quickly, and a lot of days in a row up at least sell calls, do something. >> mike, do you own an rivian? >> i don't own rivian, done own an rivian. we own a tesla this is not a holly stock. although she likes them. this one has a pretty high short interest just about 13% or so these big gaps that we're seeing, this has some hall marcs of a little bit of a short squeeze. does that signal a buying opportunity to me as somebody who's more of a value player not so much. could run further to the upside. not crazy about it.

check out our website and newsletter much more "options action" after this

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go.

fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt. welcome back to "options action."

we mentioned bank earning are right around the corner but let's check out other names set so report next week. united health. a big underperformer mike, you say you're going to play this one like an insurer would. what does that mean? >> what do insurance companies do to make money they sell premium. options traders can do that, too. that's what i'm thinking about in united health united health is one of the most epic gross story stocks we've seen over the past 20 years or so it's a long-term holding of mine it's a cash flow generating monster. but when you're looking to generate premium you're looking for stocks that aren't likely going to move a whole lot in either direction united health is probably one of those names. this is a name that moves less than 3% on average on earnings, and actually right now we're getting about 25% implied volatility for the front month options. there are different ways you can do that.

you can sell a cash covered put, call debit spread for put credit spread i was looking at a put credit spread, looking out to july. the idea was selling the 470/480 call spread. >> attractive premium over a short period of time the important thing, this is a trade you can do whether you own the stock or not in fact i sometimes like calling call credit against equity rather than the outright short call the reason is if you happen to get it wrong you've defined the risk of your trade in the event that the stock actually does get a sharp spike. we don't typically see that in earnings. >> mike did an epic gross story. carter called this a god like chart. carter where, does it stand now

that it's down 12% for the year? >> i was going to say, maybe god's snoozing or not feeling good to mike's point, this is pure idiosyncratic growth doesn't care about more, frankly, insensitive to economic activity, and its beta is half a market it's one of the greatest operating businesses in the market, and it has now sort of stalled. my urge is to take advantage of the stall, because ultimately higher from here. >> at what point on that chart do you get concerned >> you're getting right to it. meaning, do we start to break through from the stall to the rollover at some point you've got to take measures after a steep uncorrected move is working off the condition of the proceeding move. so is it just that, the pause refreshes?

or what you intimated, is it the rollover my hunch is the former, not the latter. >> let's get to another reporting. delta, wheels up, now nearly 50% this year, and with earnings on deck, brian's got a way to play it if you think the stock reached cruising altitude. >> might be. a lot of analysts are saying, jet fuel costs, we talk about energy prices being suppressed that's been very good for the stock, and that's what we'll probably see in earnings call coming up next week. i think when you're looking at delta, consumer discretionary stocks are starting to feel the shift where there's a bid. a lot of stocks are starting to work off inventory, commodity prices are lower it's making them profit margin a little better. i think delta falls in that category we have seen the stock rally tremendously in the last couple weeks, but this does feel a little bit like the by the rumor and sell earnings once the news comes out. for that i'd be looking to use

options, sell premium. a lot of people -- catastropher, we talked about that, too of you have 5.5% yield. why don't you get cash instead of the market? if i sell a put, i have to keep cash in place to buy the stock i get yield on the cash. sell the put, also get yield delta has gotten through a leavel pick up put strike where i don't think the stock is getting down below to any time soon and i think that $40 strike level going out to december, i've collected enough premium that's above 12% annualized return on top to have the cash in case i'm waiting and get put to the stock from a risk/reward, conservative investor wants to collect premium, this makes a lot of sense. >> mike, you're taking the trade? >> a conservative investor selling puts on airlines that's a combination of two

things i don't think i've heard before a lot of these names are quite cheap. delta does do a good job managing the fuel costs as probably many people know. they actually bought their own refiner several years ago. this thing trading seven times full year for next year, eps of $7 $7.50. it's quite incredible. of course if we do start to see sharply higher energy prices or if the economy rolls over hard, that could be a head wind for them. >> quick take on the chart. >> this seems more deliberate than rivian. >> up next, meta after the big run-up in the new name and threads app lauh isncth week how to manage that one when "options action" returns thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience.

with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

we moved out of the city so our little sophie ♪♪♪ could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. welcome back to "options action." a while back, mike laid out a

trade on meta. since then, surging 16% with its threads launch this week trade is solidly in the green. what are you doing >> i think you either want to roll up the 230 call or take your profits spent 213. they're worth 45 bucks now and well in the money, so roll up and out or just take profits and run. >> all right lletanfi we have twes d ne ca

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. welcome back to "options action." time to take some tweets our first fan asks, i bought 8 sofi october 5th calls at 70 in may, sold in june. how do i handle the balance of the position in june byline >> i think it's time to roll

seven strike other higher. sell them, roll them up higher that's a way to take profit. could be room to run in the stock. >> sofi doubled. rivian, dropped to 8 trim, do something. >> ford earnings on july 27th up 30%. want to keep the position. first idea is buy of the $15 july 28 puts is that expiration too close to the news mike, what do you think? >> yeah, i mean, i think you might push it out an extra week or two, and that's only going to call you an extra 10 to 12 cents for contract to do that. then you get to hold the three-day rule news is going to come out and give you time to digest it. >> time for the final call that went fast mike khouw back to you. >> i think you can look like

insurers do to collect premium on united health i like selling upside call spreads and buying call spreads into september. >> brian >> sell puts in delta. collect for premium out there, and i like that stock. >> carter? >> profits in spy. take some and >> welcome to this edition of "techcheck," on cnbc i am jon fortt. after the momentum of a monster run to start 2023, the nasdaq had its best first half in 40 years. up 39% here today. those gains have been mostly one of the biggest players. as discussed, the magnificent seven of