impossible" franchise. i don't know if i would see that one. >> we just saw harrison ford >> that's what i mean. that didn't do well. >> i still want to see it. >> "barbie" and "oppenheimer." what a pair. it is monday, july 10th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc lift live from the nasdaq market site in sometimetimes square i'm becky quirkck with kernen the nasdaq down 56

this is the beginning of earnings season. you will see people focused on what we hear from the companies and guidance will be give us something new to focus on let's look at the treasury market after the big swings last week, the 10-year treasury is above 4% 2-year treasury is below 5% at 4.92%. janet yellen wrapping up the four-day trip to china saying she has a constructive visit with the meeting on the global economy. it marks a new relationship with the two countries. the u.s. is not seeking to decouple from china. this is the second official visit to china in the last few weeks after secretary of state antony blinken's meeting in june. and meta threads app

surpassing 100 million the social media site hitting it faster than chatgpt, instagram or tiktok. the head of instagram said the goal of threads is not to replace twitter, but call it a public square for those interested in a less angry place for conversations. obviously, elon musk is creating a public square where people don't get censored for things. we will see how it plays out >> we will see >> they are looking at a new match up >> i saw that. interesting -- twitter is the place for it twitter and social media just read the newspaper. i'm reading about the reading list for teachers union. reading the quotes intfrom that.

i read it now and i guess it has to really be out there for me to raise an eyebrow >> yeah. i agree. i have seen some of the stuff. it is nutty. there was a thread i saw on twitter over the weekend some guy talking about if you had to find the "lord of the rings" character for every social media site, twitter would be golam he said all of them would be golam. it was clever. >> i like this twitter better. i'm glad it is not like it used to be. i think it is more like -- >> the question is how do you get advertisers to the social media apps how do you mondetize them >> it is nice to be worth $2 billion and you don't care. >> i don't know if he does

i know linda does. >> she is a strong-minded individual i'm not worried about at all >> this is not conservative stuff. >> she will be judged on -- she's a big girl, i guess. i don't know what i'm allowed to say. she's an adult eyes wide open if she is judged on whether you can increase advertising, that might be a problem >> i don't know how her compensation is based. >> i forgot totally about parler >> i forgot it, too. >> clubhouse andrew knew about clubhouse. truth social. >> i never tried any of them mastodon i never tried it of. >> i don't care if i don't have

twitter. i don't care i decided i don't think i'm ever going to respond to a tweet again. is that possible >> i don't think you'll make it through the show are you not going to turn it on? >> it's there. i'll mute it of. >> you are now tempting the tro trolls >> they know what to say i dye my hair or wear a wig. i'll mute people. >> muting is the way to go >> they will not know. >> if you tell them you're blocking them, that is a badge of honor >> i'll just look at stuff not that stuff >> you have two hours and 54 minutes and 40 second. >> i'm not going to do it. stay together. >> i'll get you to do that >> under a name deplume. and ant group is buying back

shares at 765% discount before it forced to scrap the ipo in 2020 over the regulatory crackdown in china ant was fined $900 million in a year's long overhaul of the fin the fintech company. uber ceodara khosrowshahi sells 100,000 shares for $4.5 million. this is the first time that dara has sold uber since january of 2021 the most recent was the purchase of $5.3 million of uber shares back in may of 2022. the stock is up 70%. and carl icahn is making moves to fend off a short seller

report he highlighted a number of personal loans from the trading price of the companies shares. the report says icahn increased clo collateral and set up a loan to repay in three years in may, you may recall hindenberg research sold at inflated prices and the stock was vulnerable because icahn inflated the price with the pledged shares as collateral against the loans division >> it is a lot >> it is i don't know what he is spending it on. i have known the him a long time 85 >> i guess we're all getting up there. give it time >> it's all relative

let me see i guessed 85 he is 87 it is two years more than i remember >> time has a way of doing that. we have an update on the strike in the canadian ports talks resumed. new data from the exporter group said the strike is disrupting the movement of $384 million of trade a day. and senator chuck schumer is calling on the fda to investigate prime. thought the amazon thing energy drink brand founded by youtube stars including logan pa pa paul logan roy? no, logan paul >> i didn't realize this drink had this much caffeine in it >> neon colored energy drink with 200 milligrams of caffeine.

equal to six cans of coca-cola chuck schumer says there is little difference in the packaging and the separate sports drinks with no caffeine he said the warning label on the energy drink is not for children under 18 gets lost. >> last summer when kyle was 10, his friends were chasing this prime down i had no idea. 200 milligrams of caffeine red bull is 80 bil0 milligrams i don't know if regulators will do anything. i won't let him drink it they got turned off to it quickly because it did not taste great. this is caffeine free tea.

>> in the morning? >> i don't drink it. >> it's only time for me i'm back on coke. >> i drink diet coke >> i'm back on full. the real stuff i've lost weight if i have one, i never have really liked diet coke. >> i like diet coke. >> aspertame >> did you try coke zero >> the original is almost like the greatest liquid ever it settles your stomach. >> so does ginger ale. >> does it >> yeah. >> i don't want to have a bunch of fake sweeteners >> i have read things. >> one 12 ounce. buffett. >> he drinks them. >> 92. worth twice his age in billions.

>> i don't think it is 200 >> who's counting at that point? >> it is the equal to golf your age. >> for nine holes. you know what? we can't tease the next segment. >> i'm excited. >> tom lee he never makes short-term calls. it is uber bullish >> is he the highest on the street for s&p >> one week call >> i thought it was the end of the year >> s&p because of the friendly cpi number because of used cars sales. >> when we come back, our next guest is expecting the s&p, what joe said, to rally 100 points in the next week. that's right look at that tom lee will with join us with the bullish call next. it is not just the next week, but full year he is bullish about. later, the june jobs report

showing demand in the economy. we will talk to former boston fed president eric rosengren you are watching "ua b" sqwkox and this is cnbc good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. we earn your trust. maintain our financial strength and stability. and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions.

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it's happening. get started wih fast spees and advanced security for $49.99a month for 12 monts plus ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card with qualifying internet. time for the "squawk planner. inflation in focus this week the read on consumer prices wednesday before the opening bell

the fed beige book on wednesday afternoon and thursday is the weekly jobless claims. on friday, import and export prices wait for that. earnings season kicks off with pepsi and delta reporting on thursday and jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and citigroup on friday president biden arrived in the uk yesterday he is meeting with king charles for the first time since his coronation he will conclude his trip in helsinki on thursday he will congratulate finland on becoming the newest member of nato >> is that what you do >> welcome to the bloc. >> in case we get attacked by russia tom lee is here. he has a call of 100 points in the s&p in the next week it has to do with the lighter than expected cpi reading.

tom lee is the cnbc contributor. he started the year more bullish than anyone. i saw the articles last week that i referenced. you were the one bull talking about 4,700 on the s&p this systisn't -- you are not l to the party i love analysts with netflix and neutral on netflix and price of 1 1 170. they act like it is early. this is not something you do a one-week call short-term for 2.5% to 3% move in the average >> that is right markets move a lot around the cpi report that's always a big market event. we thought a tactical opportunity was emerging because the market sold off last week.

jobs market strong and fed popped bearish into the week. core cpi could come in at 2% or better >> you say better, you mean l lower? >> yes .2% or lower >> yes that is way outside of where it has been. >> the lowest since august of 2021 almost a two-year low. it would show the fed is getting inflation to levels on a monthly basis they are trying to target. .2% is 2.5% annualized it might be repeating. you may see similar numbers the next couple months that would push short-term rates down and trigger a rally in the equity markets >> it has to do with used car prices within the last two months whichoutlier.

you talked about the deflationary trend 55%. that is rare to have that many in the deflationary. >> yes on the weighted basis, 42% of the cpi basket in deflation. the price higher in the past 18 months the long-term average is 30% the ten-year average is 38%. this is already far higher than what you expect. future inflation should fall and that is with shelter rising at 8% when shelter starts to flatten out, that takes the number to 70% or more. >> tom, overnight, china had deflationary numbers for producer prices and consumer prices which were weaker than anticipated. there is a downturn there. how quickly does good news for

cpi become bad news? >> it could based on the market mood sometimes the market narrative can flip the cpi and ppi in china is adding to a disappointing reopening story for them, but the good news is china ppi and u.s. ppi are correlated. it means it will feed over to the u.s. as lower prices with better profit margins and better cpi. >> you raised your year-end target >> we did that a few weeks ago >> 48. >> and 4825. >> evearnings season is coming a rude awakening with earnings the backup in yields rude this is a hated market what you are saying flies in the face of consensus? >> that's right. i think there is a lot of even

torrent -- entrenched skepticism. earnings is going from adding this quarter at 25% drag excluding energy with s&p over year over year the first since first quarter since 2022 >> you remember the days when bitcoin fallen to 2,000. i remember 20,000. why were disrespected analysts gamble it went to 20,000 and then 65,000 recently, you said 200,000 by when the end of 2025 for bitcoin? >> it is possible. >> you are making short-term one-week calls for the s&p 500 to go up 100 points. normally i would say you lost it you remember joe gran vville? i thought he lost it

i think you are some sesavant 200,000 on bitcoin. >> aggressive. >> by the end of when? >> in the next five years. >> you know a week from now we will know if the s&p is up 100 points or not. why make that call why do that? >> i felt some urgency for our clients because i believe last week was a moment where people saw interest rates really pop on the jobs report. >> the narrative did change. higher for longer. everybody. you walk out on the street and someone is picking up a cigarette butt and said higher for longer, joe. higher for longer. everybody. >> that's right. this could be the first piece of good news the fed can point to to say that's why we're slowing the pace that gets priced in the markets

and the equities can rally >> why do it what is the upside you are getting the accolades for being the bull on the street. >> that's true for our clients, we wanted them to contain their unease about the markets. it did wobble since the end of the second quarter, stocks have been choppy. this is the moment to inflect >> great to have tom back. >> we missed you >> bitcoin there was a stigma to that you haven't been on. now you're back and the only guy who is right you are contributor for cnbc >> yeah. >> take our calls. come on. thanks >> glad to do it >> unless you're totally wrong we'll know in a week >> yeah. >> tom, good to see you. >> great to see you.

when we come back, former at&t ceo randall stephensen resigning from the pga tour policy board over the deal with liv golf we have more on that when we come back. "squawk box" will be right back. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ ♪ the thought of getting screened ♪ ♪ for colon cancer made me queasy. ♪ ♪ but now i've found a way that's right for me. ♪ ♪ feels more easy. ♪ ♪ my doc and i agreed. ♪ ♪ i pick the time. ♪ ♪ today's a good day. ♪ ♪ i screened with cologuard and did it my way! ♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way

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former at&t ceo randall stephenson has resigned his board seat over the deal with the saudi-backed liv golf. the detailed letter of resignation from the pga board says he cannot objectively evaluate the deal in light of

the u.s. intelligence report concerning jamal khashoggi in 2018 the report said that stephenson planned to resign six days after the deal was announced, but waited for jay moynahan's medical level. he plans to return to work next monday it sis a controversial deal and no one knows if it will happen and it is nebulous jay moynahan said this before and now this it is -- i don't know. a controversial subject. we know randall. we have known him for a long time john stankey is now in charge. at&t had a long standing history of sponsoring pga tour events. you have to be cognizant of your

brand. i'm not sure "the wall street journal" piece about the lead is great for the brand. if you sponsor pebble beach and at&t tournament in dallas. they sponsor four or five tourna tournaments. >> randall, i always thought of him as a boy scout he was the head of the boy scouts he intentionally didn't say more he doesn't want to get involved in the back and forth. stepping down from the board because he could not support the board's decision it was not a board decision, i should say that may be part of it the board did not sign off on it the players and policymakers did not know about the deal at the beginning. three people who did >> it is hard to navigate globally who is okay and who is not. you have to do business with

china. i would tell you china is not occupying the moral high ground even over saudi arabia with uyghurs and i know khashoggi i don't know how you rank these things >> there is hypocrasy on all levels >> dealing with -- >> it doesn't mean you can't step down from the board if you don't feel comfortable. coming up, janet yellen say ties with the u.s. and china are on sure footing. we will have the latest next china. great. as we head to break, here is a look at the pre-market winners and losers of the ler--oss. ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. nasdaq is down 50 points this morning. we have seen mostly red most of

the session. interesting response last week to both of those numbers the really strong adp report and less strong actual employment report that we got on friday add it up and we had two down days >> wages were up the component of the hourly wages. >> nowhere near 500. 200. >> and previous two months the . the other big story, janet yellen wrapping up the high profile trip to china. her talks with the beijing counterparts were constructive and the relations with the two largest economies are on sure footing in her words joining us with more is jim mcgregor jim, i want to welcome you this morning and ask what you think of how things went and if we are

in the situation where things have cooled down at this point or not >> i think they went as well as expected let's put this in context. from obama and going back, we had dozens of dialogues with china. they were often not productive because it was all about details. so, those dialogues all disappeared during trump and into the biden administration. we have a relationship based on mistrust we have to be talking. china responded positively to her coming the new leadership under xi jinping on the economic side of china met with her they talked positively you know, our relationship has gotten to such a dark stage that something like this is progress. >> stuff like this is progress because things didn't get worse? >> because we're talking hopefully this channel will turn to more talking.

there is a personal relationship there. both sides face a lot of politics at home you know, the members of congress are saying that by going, you shouldn't be going because it puts off us taking actions against china. congress member gallagher says this is zombie engagement. i hope we don't go back to that in the past. >> what are the hot button t topics she used words diversifying and decoupling and making sure not to de-risk things. we need to make sure we diversify our supply chain is it that or taiwan or the actual things we have donesemic

there? >> yes, yes. all of the above i was interested to see her use the word diversify i hadn't really heard the administration use the word diversifying much before she was focused on that. she was readying china for future actions narrowly targeted and aimed at national security and not aimed at hurting chinese progress. she was getting ready for what may come next. we have to see what happens next china has troubles their economy is not doing well at all when i talk to friends, chinese friends running businesses there, they are not happy with how things are going consumers are not spending real estate is in the doldrums we need to talk to china and

they need to talk to us. it needs to be on equal footing. >> we talked about the weaker than expected ppi numbers and weaker cpi numbers ppi is showing a decline in inflation. people are reading that as weakness in the economy and reopening not going as expected. how big of an issue is that for them >> well, it is a very big issue. it is all about the economy in every country, but especially china. the way you keep the allegiance to the chinese people to have opportunities and live better a and have a better life they are leading into the middle income trap. a couple of months ago, xi jinping said you have to struggle and be tough and get through this this is a population that lived well for over 30 years i don't know how much they want to struggle. they want a good life.

china is refocused on rebuilding the economy and moving forward they have to be friendly with the u.s. in order to do that it is a fraught relationship we have to see where we go. >> is it fair to think ant financial is making it through the regulatory period because chinese regulators will not continue to crackdown on successful companies there >> well, i'm not sure. one of the key things that xi jinping is focused on is not letting capital have power he doesn't want people with money to have power in china which is an interesting concept. anywhere else in the world, money has a lot of power and financials is at the forefront of that. ant is disciplined they will do whatever the government p wwants. i'm not sure how loose government will be with business they called in a bunch of big companies and talked to them they want them on board and

doing what the party wants. >> jim, there are certain individuals who think the taiwan thing is going to happen sooner than later others say 2040. what you said sounds like it is in china's best interest to keep the status quo because they need us that implies we do have -- we can actually make a difference of the our efforts in stopping that could make a difference we could cause china to not do that to bend to our will, almost. do you see it that way or is it near term? >> they will do what -- well, china will do what is in its best interest. you never know when it comes to ta taiwan i look at taiwan as something that we have to, you know, if the u.s. supports taiwan, we should help taiwan, but we should be quiet about it all of the congressional delegations going there all the

time and poking their finger in xi jinping's eyes is not helpful. i follow it closely. >> okay. >> jim, thank you. >> nice to see you >> you, too. when we come back, can tom cruise save the boxes office "mission impossible" set to release this week. w we will talk about the media next. and alan patrikov will talk about what he is seeing in the sector "squawk box" will be right back.

the s.e.c. seeking a rule change that could change the relationship with fund managers and investors. leslie picker is here with more. >> reporter: good morning, joe s.e.c. is in the process of finalizing regulations for final funds. it is seeking a technical tweak, but lawyers say it could change business in the industry and how it is conducted. it includes lowering the bar for indemnific indemnification of negligence. it is allowing to sue for recklessness or obvious risk if that were changed to ordinary negligence, lps could be sued

for simpler mistakes making it easier to bring claims against gps. that may steer to less lucrative bets says the chair of the regulatory practice, the law firm that counts a number of private funds as a number of clients. >> the ability with for fund managers to take risks and protected for the simple day-to-day conduct is fundamental to having an investment strategy with potentially higher rewards if you are going to have funds that offer potentially higher returns, there will be risks associated with that and investment managers will have a hard time protecting themselves from being on the hook for those risks. >> reporter: s.e.c. chair gary gensler says this prohibits from engaging in a number of activities contrary to the public interest and protection of investors

the s.e.c. did not respond to our request for comment. this is the subject of our latest delivering alpha newsletter out every other week. you can subscribe using the qr code on the screen guys >> i don't know. i don't know, leslie there are risks involved investing. the s.e.c. is going to get into the business of making sure there's no risk. i was thinking in my life. marriage gross negligence and what is the other kind >> driving a car >> the other kind? >> ordinary negligence >> there is a ton. i don't try to be negligent. i end up being negligent i don't want to be held to account. if i'm grossly negligent, then i understand that. you know, average negligence that's weird to have one word

depend on what your action is as a money manager would be it sounds like it would cause people to pull in their risk horns. >> reporter: yeah. that's the concern you know, is ordinary negligence a fat finger for a trade or losing money in a falling market these things happen on a daily basis. it calls into question the overall business model of risk joe, to your point of when it is okay to be grossly negligent over ordinary negligent. these are sophisticated investors invested in the private funds. people as defined by the s.e.c. would technically have money to lose you are not talking about someone off the street who put their life savings in the fund then losing money. >> right okay thanks sounds like more regulation, leslie we have a lot of it.

thanks coming up, the summer box office set to heat up. we talk about what to expect from the year's biggest releases on the horizon is that "mission impossible" i'm looking at at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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. box office gearing up for a sizzli sizzling summer. several big releases on the horizon, "mission: impossible," barbie, and oppenheimer among the movies on the marquee. joining us with more is matt bellamy. i think this is it in terms of bringing it back to where we wanted it to be in terms of theater goers. this is -- is there any way

"mission: impossible" doesn't open big and succeed am i -- i don't want to be a fan boy here, but tom cruise is the biggest movie star in the world, is he not, matt? and i think to be the biggest you have to do your own stunts, and it's just crazy watching him do these things. i'd go just to see that. >> yeah, and i think you're not alone there. the thing is, though, with "mission: impossible," these movies, they do fine, but traditionally they don't do a billion dollars and that is sort of the benchmark for a huge hollywood blockbuster. i think this one has as good a chance as any to do that, mostly because of the "top gun" effect, people went and saw him last summer in "top gun: maverick" that movie did 1.5 billion worldwide. i think there's going to be a halo effect where people might come back this summer for a "mission: impossible" movie even if they haven't seen the

previous ones. the other thing working against it, though, this is a $300 million plus movie, so to get to profits for this one, they've got to do 7, $800 million given the splits involved, and you know, that's a tall order i think it will get there, but this movie has a lot -- it's got a lot to do at the box office. >> i didn't even think about profitability. i'm just thinking about box office just buzz and receipts and everything else. i had the opposite feeling about an 80-year-old indiana jones. it's just not going to happen for me, matt >> i liked clint. >> grant torino was great. >> that was 20 years ago >> barbie's probably going to work i don't know why. >> it'd be the last one i'd want to see. >> was there a plot when mattel

had the little barbie and ken, was there a plot or they just made it up >> i went to the premier last night. there is definitely a plot there is a story line. it's fun it's silly it makes a lot of points about feminism and the patriarchy, but -- >> no. >> this movie cost $100 million. >> it's preachy? >> it's a little bit, but it's still -- but it's fun. it's definitely fun. >> okay. you know, they -- the marketing on this has just been through the roof warner brothers has done an amazing job making sure barbie is a part of all of our lives in many different ways over the past six months, and the tracking on this one is that it has a chance to get to $100 million opening weekend, which for a movie that costs $100 million, that's pretty good >> there's going to be people going to theaters. i'm thinking about amc and things like that this is what we've been waiting for. it's been kind of a -- you know, some slim pickens at different points

there's been some, but these are all happening once and christopher nolan, he's not the biggest movie star, people go to see movies just based on him, and this is going to be big. >> absolutely. and chris nolan for oppenheimer, he's got a three-week exclusive on imax theaters in the u.s. and his fans love to see his movies on the biggest screens possible so, you know, the imax screens are an upcharge, and that will pad the box office as well the movie is tracking for 40ish million for an opening, but for his movies, you don't really look just at the opening weekend. they tend to play for weeks and weeks and weeks,in so ultimatel if everybody's focusing on barbie versus oppenheimer in the opening weekend but it's going to be a month, six weeks before we know which movie is ultimately the winner here. >> you don't have to see it on i imax, i guess, but some of these

movies you need to see in the theater. could you release "mission: impossible" on streaming you couldn't, it's just not the same >> it's not the same. >> and the demise has been greatly exaggerated of the theaters. >> the thinking in hollywood on this subject has really turned over the last year or two. the demise of the streaming only movie, other than netflix, you know, amazon a little bit, but even the streamers like apple and amazon for these bigger movies, they're going with a theatrical window first and then streaming. now, the box office is still down about 20% from 2019 so far, and you know, there are a lot more movies but a lot of them are kind of stalling they're not getting to the heights that movies once did there's some crowding at the box office but the hope is that july with these three big movies is going to at least pull a little closer to the pre-covid times. >> all right i've noticed you do your own

stunts when we have you on, which is -- >> i do. i try. >> i know. >> i do too here, it's about as far as i'll take it. matt, thanks >> no problem. >> all right, see you later. when we come back, the commute to new york city could get a lot more expensive new york city's congestion tax could go into effect as early as next april we will talk to new jersey congressman josh gottheimer for his take on this plan. last week we got new york city officials. this week we'll try new jersey "squawk box" will be right back.

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good morning, inflation data and the kickoff to earnings season in focus for investors, a look at what you need to know ahead of the open is straight ahead. could a bitcoin etf be a game changer for crypto. we'll talk regulation and more with former s.e.c. chair jay clayton. plus, use them or lose them, why taking a vacation could actually help your career. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off this morning u.s. equity futures have turned green on the dow now i just noticed, up about 25 points. the nasdaq continues to trade lower and s&p down fractionally. treasuries, i saw at least on the short end there was a little bit of giveback, there was no above 5% anymore, 4.9 and the inversion's not quite what it was, 85 now, right, 86. >> it's been inverted, what, for over a year at this point? >> it got well above 100 basis points at one point. >> last week >> yeah. let's get to dom chu, he's got a look at this morning's premarket movers good morning, happy monday. >> good morning, happy monday, becky. we're going to start with three movers, where analysts are kind

of making some catchup calls on some of these shares we'll start with nvidia, those shares are down just about 1/4 of 1% now, roughly 150,000 shares of volume $495, it was 440 before. they kept the buy rating on the stock. they cited, what else, the significant runway for artificial intelligence, more growth around the ai business. so they keep the buy rating. they've been right on that and they upped the target price to a 495. now shares of netflix are down roughly half a percent around 4,000 shares of volume it's getting its price target raise to $450 from a prior 350 over at morgan stanley they kept their equal weight rating on it this is more of that catchup call with shares hovering around $435 a share premarket the newly ad supported pricing tier and sharing crackdown t tail tailwinds. we'll cap things off with a check on shares of tesla which

were up around half a percent or so, half a million shares of trading volume this morning we've got analysts at jeffries who upped their target price on the ev maker to 265 bucks. it was 185 before. they kept their hold rating on the stock, maybe not so much the right call there it's another catchup call given the sharp runup over the last couple of months they still think auto industry gross profit margins will be under pressure in the coming months but they raise their estimates and keep the more neutral ratings. tesla up 3/4 of 1% premarket. >> their price target is playing catchup, though. 265 is still below where it stands right now at 276. >> and by the way, still kind of the move with netflix kind of similar, right the more hold ratings are inter interesting. you can make the case with the valuation runup, some of them deserve more of a hold rating. >> did you see those guys at wimbledon? >> do you mean the three, the trifecta, if you will.

>> did you see the women at pebble beach >> yes, the women at pebble beach. i watched it until the end. >> i did watch some of, that i saw that one lady shot a 66 in the final. >> i saw it yesterday. >> wimbledon. >> no, i know. >> jordan spieth, justin thomas and rickie fowler. >> all three of them. >> all sitting together with their wives. >> yeah. >> they're really buddies. >> smiley coffin was a part of that original spring break crowd that kicked things off years ago. every five to ten years later you see the updates on what that crew is doing. >> they were all spruced up too in their wimbledon. >> you've got to be if you're going to wimbledon. >> it's cool >> thanks, dom. >> you got it, guys. >> we'll see you a little later. investors may be getting a whiff of stagflation following friday's jobs report, which showed stronger than and expected wage growth and weaker

than expected employment growth. that's what jim grant said, the founder and editor of grant's interest rate observer jim, a lot of people looked at that number and thought, oh, good, it's not too hot, not too cold but i think you make some valid points when you say the jobs numbers were lower and the average hourly wages component was up. >> yes, a little bit -- just a spritz of the late 1970s it wasn't terrible, but it underscores the difficulty of the -- the degree of difficulty the fed's job now, it reminds me a little pit of captain sully on the hudson, it requires a great deal of precision and not a little luck to do what they say they will do, which is to deliver us from the consequence of ten years of artificially low rates. >> they're doing this, trying to get the rates set up the right way, also trying to launch qt, quantitative tightening. it didn't work so well four years ago when they tried to do it, and jay powell even kind of

pointed to that in his testimony before congress. >> the fed's balance sheet is very much like the late silicon valley's, it's very much resembles the balance sheets of the banks didn't make it through march because they have an mark-to-market loss in excess of $900 billion as of march 31st, and they are losing substantial amounts on operating, just in operations so their losses are far greater than their capital so the fed ilttself is a symbolf the difficulties in which rates are being normalized the fed says this doesn't matter, but its accounts as it pains to obscure it from the world, it's not exactly a practical problem, but it is a highly important symbolic one. and i think the world in its adaptive way is coming to grips with the fact that interest

rates have been not only low but have duplicitous they have led people to do things they wouldn't have done if they only could have known where real rates would wind up, meaning legitimate market determined rates. >> all of these problems with the fed, though, haven't really played out at all in the market. if you looked at what's happened for the year-to-date it's been an incredible run, and it surprised a lot of people we just had tom lee on earlier this morning he's been right on his market calls through this, and he's still looking for higher numbers for the s&p at the end of the year. >> you know there's something called the chicago fed financial conditions index, which is a great aggregation of little indicators, and it says that financial conditions are easy after all of the talk, after all of the rate lifting. so there's a difference, as someone said recently between tighte tightening, and by the standards

of the volcker era, monetary tightening is not yet tight, and there are undeniable signs of astringency throughout finance not so much on the valuation of nvidia in terms of revenues, but certainly with respect to the coverage ratio and the speculative grade bond market, those companies are covering their interest charges at a much narrower rate level than they had been in 2022 there are a record number of br bankruptcies going back 2010, corporate bankruptcies in the first half of this year. rivets are popping kind of offstage, and the question for all of us is will the -- will this consequences of these rates now playing out in these example os s of stringent, will the consequences overwhelm? >> do you think this a replay of 2008 where things looked okay for a while after bear stearns or came back in the fall and everything collapsed again

financially, or do you think that this really is jay powell as captain sullenberger. >> he's a nice guy, jay powell, but i think he is not sully. and you know, 2008 is -- i think it's unduly provocative analogy just now. >> i just mean in terms of the -- the financial problems, the baiting and then coming back. >> yes, i think that analogy exactly holds. how often have we seen things that didn't appear to matter suddenly mattering so i expect that we will -- >> is there any way that given what happened at zero for financial crisis all the way through the pandemic, is there any way that we've had some pain in the last 18 months, two years in the averages r, and the econm and everything else, is that enough is that enough to correct the excesses of the fed over the last ten years, do you think, or do we have more -- i'd be sur surprised if they orchestrate this nice soft landing and

everything's great. >> yes, i would be surprised too. i confess that's not my temperament, i'm not equipped to conceive the fed might in all of its errant laden ways finally stick it >> you know what, though, the consensus is they could never do it, and maybe against consensus maybe then they do. >> so many birthday candles have i blown out that i rule out nothing. yes, it's possible i think that the distortions created by these rates and by the expectations of fed intervention have been so widespread and so deep that it's highly unlikely this is the extent of the correction. >> i know, but you're a worry wart >> i am. it's a job, joe. >> i know. i know i hear you thank you. >> you're welcome. >> love your popcorn too by the way. coming up, new york -- >> he looks like oroville

redenbacher. >> because he's got a bow tie? >> and the glasses and sort of the general -- yeah, yeah. new york city commuters across the most expensive bridge and tunnel toll roads in the country and the cost of commute is about to get much worse. congressman josh gottheimer is here to weigh in next. "squawk box" will be right back. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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welcome back to "squawk box," new york city commuters already cross the most expensive bridge and tunnel toll roads in the country, and the cost to that commute is about to get a lot worse. new york city's new congestion tax could go into effect as soon as next april, and it would cost as much as $23 for a single rush hour trip. that's on top of the $15 that easy pass holders already pay during rush hour to cross the george washington bridge here's what the ceo of partnership for new york city told us last week about the tax's impact on commuters. >> new jersey should get over it we have more than 80% of manhattan office workers including those from new jersey use public transportation and will benefit from the tolls from congestion pricing >> well, joining us with his reaction is congressman josh got h halftimer of, new jersey, what do you think, josh are you going to get over it >> i don't think any of us are getting over that, including the

businesses in new york city and everyone who's dying to get new jersey workers back into work. what i don't understand about this, becky -- and i think you get it -- is they want to charge $23 a day on top of the 15 to $17 folks pay already, right that's an extra $5,000 a year for hardworking force, a nurse, electrician, a restaurant worker, just to go into manhattan. it's insane and all it's about is because the mta -- which is their mass transit system, they're running $2 billion a year deficits and they need jersey's cash. they admit it's not going to help reduce traffic. it's going to just move the traffic arnold it's going to lead to more pollution in the atboros and new jersey with more cancer causing pollution from trucks, and so their answer is let's just stick it to jersey let's let them pay for our mismanagement. >> okay. you are preaching to the choir here, but let me play devil's advocate and tell you what ms. wild, who is the ceo of the partnership of new york city who was here last week was saying.

she said, look, businesses here want this, they've asked for, that which i did take a little issue with she said businesses want it, and it's important and we need to cut down on this traffic and new jersey commuters who are already driving in taking the luxury of driving in and potentially paying for parking downtown, they can afford it >> i mean, i don't even know where to begin the manhattan chamber of commerce is against the congestion tax, right? the uber drivers, the lyft dri drivers the restaurants, they know it will lead to fewer people coming in because it's unaffordable last year alone, the mta had $7 billion in fare skippers, people who didn't pay to ride. so they have massive problems going on at the mta as they have for years. it's so mismanaged they need an answer. jersey folks already are paying $17 a day to the port authority, right, to go -- and they split that between new york and new

jersey it's wibeen a cooperative for a century. in the regional economy, that's a great cooperative relationship. >> she said they weren't paying their fair share, jersey commuters and they are responsible for all of this. >> as you know, becky, new jersey folks pay $2 billion in income tax to new york city for the privilege of working in new york city. i don't know how folks aren't already paying i think they've got to look in the mirror, take care of their own problems the idea they're going to turn around and stick it to people with this project that's anti-actually fixing any of the problems they claim, it's actually worse for pollution it's worse for traffic it's going to cause a mess north of 60th street it's going to cause a mess at the holland, lincoln, and gw bridge it's going to cause more problems they should fix their own problems, deal with that their own issues instead of trying to blame others. >> are you a blue dog? are you a blue dog too >> i am a bluei dog. >> okay. we're going to have jared

bernstein on a little bit later, and he really pounds the table on bidenomics. there's a piece in the journal today that says bidenomics throws free trade and free market capitalism under the bus in favor of centralized government controls. y you saw the budget that the president wasn't going to get anywhere, but you saw it it was almost -- i mean a lot of tax hikes. do you have any problems with any of this, with what you're watching are you allowed to say if you do as a democrat? do you think -- why do you think the country -- >> it's always good to see you on a monday. >> good to what? >> see you on a monday, you've gone right in. >> it's a simple question. you know, you say that you're a blue dog you say that you're a problem solver are you fully behind bidenomics and what we've seen? >> i think if you look at where the economy is right now in terms of getting out of covid,

getting out of a supply chain strain and look at the numbers that have been produced. those are positive inflation is slowing, we still have challenges there. you've got 13 million new jobs under this administration. 200,000 new jobs in the jobs report in june unemployment remains around 3.6%, so the bottom line is there's been good progress, the inflation reduction act and obviously the debt deal we did in a bipartisan way, which will reduce the deficit by 1.5 trillion over 10 those are good, positive steps as you know, i'm not for higher taxes. i think we need to make life more affordable for folks, especially in the northeast and jersey that's why i'm against this congestion tax and any new taxes on folks i think we need to do everything we can to make things more affordable that's part of why the infrastructure deal was so important to make life more efficient. i think the inflation reduction act took key steps to help reduce the deficit >> do you see any issues with, you know, the free market sort

of being displaced by the government picking winners and losers and a lot more regulation any of that, do you raise an eyebrow? >> that's a big question the bottom line is i believe we need guardrails but obviously less red tape and bureaucracy. i think we need to make things more affordable. if your question is should we have lower taxes rather than higher taxes of course we should have lower taxes. i believe deeply in a free market, and i'm a capitalist so the bottom line is i think we live in the greatest country in the world where there's huge opportunity. it's why i don't believe in piling $23 a day congestion taxes on hardworking folks, on a l nurse or lek electrician. we kneneed to make it easier for businesses to grow and thrive. that's why things like the congestion tax makes no sense j congressman, thank you what do you think the odds are of it getting reversed at this point? because it's passed the federal challenges that it had before. i know new jersey, governor

murthy has said they're calling their lawyers and having them sl look into this what are the odds they do anything to stop >> the governor is taking action on the litigation front as you talked about i think there will be several there. i've talked to mayors given the increase in cancer causing pollution on young children and families from the congestion t tax. i think there's a lot of speed bumps ahead for the congestion tax. you can't stick it to families like this because of their mismanagement. it's a complete mess and it would be terrible for the region and terrible for businesses in jersey and new york and the whole region we're going to keep fighting this thing until the very end. >> congressman gottheimer, thank you. >> thank you, good to see you. >> you too. still to come, council of economic advisers just talked about him, jared bern sstein. the countdown is on for the top state of bel business.

scott cohn joins us next, are you somewhere, scotts that we need to pay attention to >> i'm somewhere, that's right i'm in the top state this is america's top state for business where you can see it's smooth sailing for business. we'll tell you how this year's study works. we're going to unveil this arop states around this time around. we'll give you a little preview when "squawk box" continues.

it's that time again, weaver getting ready to unveil america's top states for business and where your state ranks. scott cohn is live in the stop state to tell us how we determine the winners and losers see, i think you're usually loathe to give us any -- is that real natural light, scott? doesn't that -- so you're not in california, i don't think. you're not in chaz up in -- >> washington state? >> in oregon you're not in the capitol hill autonomous zone because it's not dark >> well, one of the reasons that we do this in july, joe, is that there's so much more daylight across the country so you know --

>> you could be mountain time, but you couldn't be california, cohn, not that anyone in their right mind would think that california would ever win. >> that's where i live this is my state but hey, you're not the first one. so yeah, we do this every year as you know, tease you a little bit about where i am, america's top state for business, but there is a serious study behind this, and what we do is we take ten categories of competitiveness that have been constant since we started this study back in 2007 but there's some changes in sort of the waiting of that year after year after year, and for 2023, here's how it works. >> we rate the states based on what the states are selling. this year with people in such short supply, everyone is talking about their workers. so work force carries the most weight where are workers moving where are they the most productive and the best trained.

next, infrastructure with a trillion dollars in new federal money, roads and bridges, ports and airports, broadband, sites for development. we look at the economy which states are growing life, health, and inclusion. the cost of doing business technology and innovation, business friendliness, education, access to capital, and the costin of living. >> reporter: you can read all about our methodology and all about competitiveness. a lot of the issues we've been highlighting the last several weeks leading up to this at topstates@cnbc.com around this time tomorrow, we'll start our countdown of the top five leading you to where i am, america's top state for business we always do this, your first diabolical hint for this year, it is -- there's the rub that's not the right one that's a different -- well, okay, you got a bonus. that one's big house

that's another diabolical hint. >> we got two of them. >> wait, what was the first one? >> there's the rub. >> oh, there's the rub, and big house? >> i mean, those trees aren't specific -- they're not like georgia pines or something, are they >> joe and i spent the whole time trying to figure out where you were >> you know he's fooling us, it looks like north carolina or something with that pond and those trees but it could be virginia it could be south carolina >> tennessee >> tennessee georgia was my feirst guess, though. >> we try not to be obvious. >> captain obvious >> big house hang on. big house like -- >> we're not going to get anywhere with it >> the big house. >> you definitely thought, let there be light so you definitely let us know that, so you've given us some -- that's kind of a clue too, scott. >> googling. >> like i said, it's light out in a hlot of places.

>> it's fun to do this it's fun to do this. it never gets old. never gets old. >> there's the rub if you're looking that up, in shakespeare it says the obstacle, this comes from a game of bowls or as we in the united states call it lawn bowling, bocce ball big house, sounds like prison. >> big house is where i don't want to go >> prison, big house. >> we're not going to get it. >> there in the big blue house working like a bear. >> i'm not going to tell you >> no, you're not. >> when do we know friday >> tomorrow? >> you'll know tomorrow. i don't want to tax you too much, joe. you'll know tomorrow i won't stress you out >> that was gross negligence that i didn't know that -- or was that -- that was just regular. >> regular >> thanks, scott >> we'll see you later. still to come this morning, almost half of americans won't use their paid time off, but could a summer vacation be

actually good for your career? we're going to talk about a surprising secret to getting ahead at work with joann lipman, that is straight ahead. plus, inside the ties that bind, jay clayton weighs in on secretary yellen's trip to china and the codependency between washington and beijing. >> where do the wolverines play? the big house in ann arbor >> oh. >> didn't say michigan. >> lawn bowling. where's the rub. >> rub, rub, rub i don't know first, though, investors are talking themselves into a bull market may egranch has a closer look at the markets. that is straight ahead, and we're going to keep thinking about --

my name is joshua florence, and one thing i learned being a firefighter is plan ahead. you don't know what you're getting into, but at the end of the day, you know you have a team behind you that can help you. not having to worry about the future makes it possible to make the present as best as it can be for everybody.

welcome back to "squawk box. about where we were, now though up 18 points on the dow, was down a little more earlier, last time we looked i think it was down 29. s&p down 3, a lot hanging on that wednesday cpi number that we talked about with tom lee hope you didn't miss that at the top of the 6, pretty interesting. new this morning, citigroup downgrading the u.s. to neutral

saying mega cap growth is set for a pullback, recession risks still linger the bank also saying european markets are trading at a discount, attributing that move to a weaker dollar and stimulus from china joining us now greg branch, managing partner at veritas financial group, and a cnbc contributor. i just didn't even like the way we said that, greg did you hear that? down dgrading america, it's like what i guess they meant -- they better have meant that because i don't appreciate that, downgrading americans stocks but just that asigde, do you agree with that? are there global opportunities that you think are more attractive >> well, i agree with some of it, and i disagree with some of it i actually think that any critique of megacap is based on a valuation perspective, based on a multiple perspective, and if what i think comes to pass, i don't think that's going to matter, joe. i think that as we get into a

contraction in the back half of this year, and as we start to come to grips with what 2024 looks like, folks will be searching for opportunities where there's going to be earnest growth, and at the end of the day, the megacap will give you earnings growth next year, and relatively strong earnings growth. it will be one of the few places th that you'll be able to find it i think the multiples will start to matter less when the earnings growth proves to be slim pickings. >> do you think, greg, i don't know if you saw tom lee, but he thinks we're going to have a good, a friendly cpi number for a variety of reasons on wednesday. he thinks that's going to reverse some of the negative sentiment from the strong jobs numbers last week that got people thinking the fed was going to go higher for longer. is that on your radar? is that a possibility that cpi is a market friendly number on wednesday? >> i didn't see him this morning, but tom and i argue

about this every month, and so i'm certain he probably said it will be 3% it just depends on which number you're paying attention to if what you're paying attention to is the headline number, that might give us a feel good few minutes, but if what we're paying attention to is core, core is like ly to rise for the eight of ninth straight month. that's what the fed cares about. the fed doesn't care about the fact that energy has contributed to a lower number, the fed doesn't care -- what the fed cares about is that the products that we have to buy every day are still going up in price and that they haven't been able to make traction against that in quite some time. >> yeah. no, he was talking about core, and he said it would indicate 2.5% this is a guy, though, greg, who was bullish right at the beginning of the year. if he's right about this too, then i'm going to have to start listening to him, and i'm going

to start kdoubting the things yo tell us all the time we're going to get a near-term test on wednesday. you don't think core will be cool this time >> no. core will go up another 30 to 40 basis points as has been our recent history with it go ahead. >> no, i was just going to say do you have a year end target? will it be below where we are right now? will we have a bad second half in your view >> i think we will i am at 3,000 year end target, almost the same as where i was last year. >> all right, greg branch this is fun, though i told tom that it's a crazy call, a weak call, one weak call for 100 points on the s&p. you know we're going to know in a week we'll talk about that next time you're on, thanks, greg. >> sounds good >> okay. so going back to top states

for business and scott cohn's two clues they gave us, where's the rub and the big house, here's the best things i've gotten from twitter, big house is leavenworth, kansas, or the big house is biltmore estates in asheville, north carolina, and barbecue would be the rub. or big house is where the university of fmichigan plays ad rub would be rubber tires. >> i like this one that the allman brothers, that's where they lived in the big house in macon. >> in georgia. >> and georgia was the first place i thought when i saw the shot. >> scott's pretty pc, pretty woke, i don't think it's going to be georgia. i don't think they'd do it i don't think they want it. >> they have done it. >> yeah. i don't know >> i wish they had made a mistake and given us more clues. >> it's not going to be florida. >> we'll see. when we come back, take a vacation already how using your time off to

unwind and relax can actually help you in your career. you got to hear this joann l joann litman's going to join us. that's next. stay tuned ♪ welcome to a new era of flight. ♪ "the pursuit of gold" by alex ball ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) the l'or barista coffee and espresso system. a masterpiece in taste. i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go.

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almost half of americans

won't use their paid time off, but could a summer vacation be good for your career our next guess has a new op-ed in "the wall street journal," actually, it was a cover story the secret to getting ahead at work is how much vacation you use. this was a cover story in the weekend section. joining us right now to talk about why she thinks taking time off boosts your career productivity is joann litman, a lecturer at yale university and author of the book "next: the power of reinvention and life at work." joann, i love this story because you're not just talking about how it's good for your health, you're talking about how this actually could help your career if you take your days off. explain. >> sure. sure good morning, becky. so what i found is when i was researching my book "next," when i was looking at creativity and innovation, and how do you rethink and reimagine. what i found is that taking time off and specifically taking vacation time, we already know it's good for your mental health, your physical health it reduces stress, anxiety,

depression, heart disease. there's been studies on all of this what i found is it's also good for your career, and there have been a number of studies on this that have come up with the same -- the same conclusion. one was done -- it was reported in harvard business review that people who take vacation are promoted at almost twice the rate of people who leave their days on the table. ey studied its own people and found that those who take ten hours of vacation in a month is correlated with an 8% boost at the end of the next year in their performance ratings, and bcg found something similar. bcg was interesting because they forced their reluctant consultants to take off either a full day a week, an evening a week, like they have to totally disconnect, and the consultants were really anxious about this, like all of us they felt like, oh, my god the world will fall apart if i'm not

working. i'm going to fall behind, my work will suffer, and they found the reverse. they found that both the consultants were happier, but also the work product improved so all of the research points to the fact that we should stop like leaving that paid time off on the table and actually take it. >> i love this just because it takes the guilt out of the idea of taking your vacation days i think it's also a badge of honor to say, oh, i didn't take my vacation days i'm working harder and harder. people do think that will get them ahead, it's kind of crazy to think it does. >> we're in this culture that f f feteish izes busyness. i look at these great innovations and breakthroughs that have come from people who are not working, everything from penicillin, the guy was on vacation when he discovered p

penicillin to post-itnotes einstein thought of e equals mc squared when he was bike riding it leads to innovation and creativity we do need to change the culture to feel less guilty, but also for our companies to really -- we have to start encouraging people to actually take their vacation time, which some companies now are trying to do >> yeah, i mean, i think back to japan. they couldn't get people to take vacations or take time off they had to institute more and more national holidays. >> goldman sachs is doing that this year. they just started requiring people to take off three weeks, which is amazing that you have to force people to take three weeks off. other companies are trying some other methods to do this they are some that are giving what they call a vacation stipend of a thousand or $2,000,

airbnb does this, ever note tuz t does, this a company called bamboo hr, they all give you a stipend. one other thing that some companies are doing, not unlike what you're talking about with japan, is some companies now are having kind of full company shutdowns, right so this started with covid with what were called recharge days where the whole company shuts down to do away with the fwguil. and now some companies do this for a week at a time last week i was trying to reach some people at ey and they were closed for the whole week. >> it was a good idea for fourth of july. i think more companies should do it love the article thank you, joann >> thanks, becky, good to be here >> you too see you soon. when we come back, we're going to talk crypto regulation, china and much more with former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton. and coming up in the next hour, council of economic advise cirarrsha jed bernstein will be our special guest. we'll be right back.

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let's talk crypto regulations, social media, ai, ch china and . joining us now is jay clayton, former s.e.c. chairman sho i am accused of negligence at home a lot i don't try it i'm just not always smart enough to know what i should be doing is that -- i mean, there's a rule now being proposed for the s.e.c., it doesn't have to be gross negligence

it's almost anything that could be construed as negligence in terms of lawsuits? >> yeah, look, i think a mandatory negligence standard in the context of investing, which is inherently uncertain, it's about the future we can't predict the future. >> if you go for high returns, isn't there -- there's going to be losses from time to time losses from time to time that might not be from negligence >> and a legal standard like strict liability, negligence, gross, those are judged with hindsight. you have a negligence standard that is forward looking. it doesn't make sense. and from a substantive, legal point of view, imposing contract terms on private parties that, a pretty big step, party that can freely negotiate the better way to approach is to ensure alignment of interest, that people have the same sort of skin in the game. that's a much better way to deal

with these issues. >> don't hold your breath. that's not going to happen any time soon. either party, depending on who's in office could certainly accuse the other party of gross negligence you don't think the republicans are doing it now with the economy? >> that's the exact point. how you manage the investment and the economy with so many factors at play. with hindsight you're always going to be viewed as not having done the best job you could. >> do you watch with interest as blue chip firms have decided they want to get involved with bitcoin or crypto? >> give me a minute. it's fascinating let go back to like 2015-16. this is an offshore, retail, nothing close to what i would say are the core of our financial markets. at that time if you look at trading of bitcoin, the

emergence of bitcoin, it looked like stocks but it was nothing like it. now we've seen development all the way to the point where companies whose reputation in the market matters are saying you know what, we think that trading, that the custody, those protections around this market are sufficient that we're willing to put our name on it and offer that product that's actually an incredible development. not one that i expected. i was very skeptical of trading in the bitcoin market when i was sec chair. i thought, you know, there were studies that 90% of it was wash trading, ripe for manipulation and the like, large people dumping. the fact that we have these institutions that no market's better than anybody and saying we're going to put our reputation behind it, i find that pretty remarkable >> can they say no to a spot, etf? how much longer? >> well, it goes to that issue when the sec approved the

futures based etf, they said we see the protections in that market for the end investors that are sufficient, we don't see them in the spot market so we're going to make that distinction. i think what the institutions are arguing is those distinctions have gone away and now the spot product is less drag, more efficient for the investors. there's not that delta in regulation, not that delta in what i can say efficacy, the spot should be approved. >> when? >> look, the regulatory process -- >> it's been a while already >> it's been a while already what i would say is if they're right, that you can demonstrate that the market has similar efficacy to the futures market, it would be hard to resist approving a bitcoin etf. >> so we talk about china. secretary yellen is over there can we start investing in

chinese stocks people like carl bass think you're out of your mind but with the less stringent regulatory oversight, are we friends again? >> i love kyle because he does his work he digs in, he does his work we had two cabinet secretaries go to china in the last three weeks. what is that telling us? we have a time of dislocation in the global economy they recognize that we need china and china needs us in order to get through this period >> it's not that we're going to change behavior so much as change the way we say things is what it felt like to me. we're not going to use words like decoupling and derisking. we're talking about diversifying it's the same thing but she said it like this, right? >> we are in a place with where we are with china, we're overly

dependent on what i would say is a vicious competitor and somebody who on the world stage would like to displace us. no one takes the other side of it but we're there. what do we have do we have to recognize how co-dependent we are. i like the elon musk co-joined twins. we are very much stuck together economically i think what we're seeing is not so much going positive but if things were to get more negative, it would be very difficult to get through this time of economic turmoil i think that's the judgment this administration is making, demonstrated by sending two cabinet officials to say let's try to work our way through this in the near term look, i see both sides of the argument i see now is the time when the united states is in a position of relative strength to start decoupling and make moves. i also see any kind of abrupt mistake in u.s.-china relations

is going to have an adverse effect on the economy. there's no perfect solution here we can do a better job of understanding. where is the end state that we want to be five years from now, ten years from now i don't think we want to be as dependent as we are today. >> so last week when the judge made that ruling, i was horrified but i understood that the government was trying to get everyone to get the vaccine so i could understand why they call twitter or facebook and say don't let that negative stuff about the vaccine. i understand why they did it but in hindsight that was bad, suppressing things was bad but then i saw someone say they need that access to protect people and what's the right --

mr will it go to the supreme court? >> i think government officials should come on this program and go to reporters and inform you on what you're thinking, give you the facts. we want that what we don't want them to do is call up a regulated identity and say here's my view of the world and if you don't accept it, regulation is going to get tougher. the case is very interesting and it's worth a read. the judge does a very careful job of saying they went over the line from information to coercion >> there will be consequences if you don't do it. >> and if you feel emotional about something, that's okay you could really care and feel emotional but you can't threaten to use the power of the state in order to, what i would say is move the public square debate. >> i know i'm going to be negligent again at some point. it's going to happen >> like in the next hour >> yeah. you, too >> we're negligent now we're over the time we're

supposed to go to commercial break. bye, jay >> when we come up, we preview the upcoming earnings season and we'll talk a.i. winners and losers with alan patricof. and i think i know the answer to the best state >> no way.

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good morning, it could be a big week the numbers could help the federal reserve decide whether to hike rates at its next hours. this morning we'll have former boston fed, who will weigh in with us. and janet yellen is wrapping up what she'll call a constructive visit with china the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" on

cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm live with joe kernen andrew is off today. it's monday. let's look and see where the equity markets are the s&p is up, the nasdaq is down by about 12 points. treasury yields are a little lighter than last week the 10-4 at just about 4%, the 2-year and janet yellen's trip to china janet yellen said she raised the issue of intimidation that some american companies have been experiencing she said she voiced concern on

exports of computer chips. and ant group values alibaba at $50 million. alibaba shares down -- up by 2.70 bitcoin this morning 30,255. >> let's talk markets, stock market and bonds really, not crypto tom lee joined us earlier on the show he himself a new call for a gain of at least a hundred points in the s&p over the next week

it has to do with expectations for a lighter-than-expected cpi reading. >> we thought a tactical opportunity was emerging the jobs reports were strong, yields popped. the feds were a little bearish into this week i think core cpi could come in at .2 or better. it could be a huge down side surprise >> for a look at what he's wat watching in the market, we're talking to mike santoli, he thinks we could be setting up for a cooler nurmmber on wednesday, which would ignite in his view the market and maybe change the market back to higher for longer or not higher for

longer >> i do see down side momentum in those components. 100 points on the s&p, who's to say that couldn't happen it's about a 2% move from here but it is in contrast with the yield story in general we've had yields going up. even if we get a benign june cpi, it will be extrapolated out. that's the debate here stee see what we've regained. we're trading above than the day of the rate hike before the fed went 500 basis points higher we were trading below where we are right now clearly there are other factors at play. i think it's keeping other strategists on the sell side really cautious. that's a real theme in what tom is saying. people are anchored to a more kept call talk because a lot of things have to be different than

historical patterns for the case to work. you've never had a decline into a tightening cycle and have the bottom be before the fed is finished tightening. the yield curve is related it's another one this is the 2-year versus the 10-year. what is interesting to note, it starts to resteepen. it always resteepens ahead of the recessions maybe there's a little bit of a move to do that. usually the way it does it is the 2-year yield comes down and people anticipate a more benign fed. we actually inverted perhaps earlier than we would have we have the most aggressive fed coming into this when we inverted a year ago, the two-year yield was around 3%, fed funds was still at 1 1/2 it shows you the market just got ahead of things. maybe this is creating a longer

lag. another thing that's happening i think against historical precedence is the naz back 100 was the leadership and got overdone at the high of the bull market prior and yet it's still leading now on this echo usually the leaders of the last boom do not lead the rebound it is happening here that also maybe happened in the late 2010s when you had that enfrenchment in '15-'16 earnings recession and you did have the nasdaq lead out of it. whether you're a bull or a bear, there are things different about this environment than the standard script of history >> all right normally a one-week call is not a good idea for a market strategist, is it, mike? i told him that. >> tough game. it's a tough game to play. but i get it if you're kind of making a call on where the consensus is clustered right now and maybe there's a trade in it for the up

side >> he's feeling it so he doesn't care >> but he was more aggressive, he raised in 1979 and june of 1981 >> the magnitudes don't really compare. it is interesting to see the varies between the short and long-term yields was somewhat similar. it was an amazingly volatile time in terms of what unflags was doing. that was when the fed was chasing inflation. right now it's unclear if it's a chase. the fed wants to let time do its work for them right now. >> i mean, before then, mike, i remember gas at -- i was walking to school both ways uphill but gas was like 50, 60 cents a gallon we didn't know about opec. we didn't know what gas lines were and it all happened at the same time so it was to see 21.5% prime

rate, you thought you could never buy a house again. those numbers, did you say 11 of the fed snunds. >> 11.2 to 20. >> fed funds, 11.2 up to 20. >> so it does make it feel like -- >> hale? >> yeah. >> this morning citi downgrading from neutral to overweight after a solid year and downgrading citi to overweight where do you feel equities might be best positioned at this point given the run-up >> toward the end of last year, everyone was saying get out of technology and get out of everything and everyone was completely caught off guard on a

year-to-date basis the longer term view is certainly important. if i'm looking today at wednesday's cpi number, headline will be around 3%. june 2022 it was 9.1 so some of the key components also have not shown weakness versus more realtime data. so, you know, we're at one third the inflation we were about a year ago and the economy thus far, i think the adp number was kind of out of whack but we're sort of seeing the jobs number of a couple hundred thousand and so, you know, for now i'm always wary of federal reserve mistakes or trouble in credit. but for now i'm in a little bit of a goldilocks scenario >> let talk about earnings

season we get into it later this week goldman sachs saying that, yeah, they think that companies will be able to beat lowered expectations and so you could hear a lot of good thanksings cn out of earnings. on the other hand you have mike wilson over at morgan stanley saying like out, it's going to be bad, they're not going to make these numbers >> i fall into listening to the companies that you own in their view there are certain areas that are going to be under a tremendous amount of pressure, in financial services, for example, which have been dealing with this expensive deposits and things like that. there are other areas where things seem to be okay in the consumer space and restaurant space. certainly we're seeing a reaction sell racial in cloud migration and technology space given a lot of what's going on with a.i so you do really need to pick

your spots the other thing i would say is that i'm really not seeing any of the supply chains or cost numbers. i think the market would react well to that >> do you like that particularly >> i've been doing that for a long period of time. i started with windows and that mosaic browser was coming out in the early 1990s. i've never seen everything sort of come together like it has around a.i. whatever you want to lump in there, we didn't really know what the r.o.i. on a desktop computer or return on investment of amazon was in the 1990s but we're seeing a real return on

equity for a.i. and factory automation in terms of efficiencies that companies are getting, jpmorgan talking about trying sales processes with a.i. and reducing fraud of all the cycles i've seen in technology, i've never seen one with such a tangible r.o.i and i think longer term this is a very, very important place to be i think it permeates throughout the overall economy and makes the bigger companies with a lot more data, harvest that data and make it significantly stronger with better margins and accelerating sales over time this is the coming together of almost 20 years of technology build and spend in the cloud and big data and the implications on the up side are significant. obviously i do listen to a lot of these debates on labor and labor costs. economists treat technological

changes as misogynist. we don't know why it happens it, just happens i don't know what the longer term a.i. impact is for labor. some have it at low as 75 million jobs lost, others have it as high as 300 million jobs lost that's the one area where i think this hyper focus on labor might be a pitch >> do you have a favorite when it comes to what's going on with a. a.i., someone you think comes out on top or is there room for lots of winners? >> i think the big winner longer term are the walmarts and

jpmorgans and things like that i think the longer term winners are corporate america as a whole. in terms of winners and losers, nvidia chips, that's the fun of being an active manager. but the longer term is extremely powerful >> that shot just -- >> it just makes me sad, that shot, it just makes me sad >> what shot >> the shot. you got no books on the shelf. >> is this your furst dirst day to work? it looks like one of the people in severance, in their little like cubicle it's depressing. where are you? >> i've been institutionalized the last -- no we moved into new offices, you know the boxes are out of the shot. >> you can buy fake books for

god sakes. >> show us prove there are boxes. >> family photos or something? a little guy on a horse, you know, that like a -- up got nothing. >> i'll load it up for you i'll unpack the boxes. >> do not come on like this again, blackstein. we were able to focus on everything you said. we certainly weren't distracted. >> you were. >> they're so lonely >> i was going to ask the same thing. >> sad go back home, remote >> thanks, noah. can i tell you who i think it is >> which state >> i have a really good clue from again twittersphere

guess where vicks vapor rub is made >> north carolina. >> and i can't remember but the biltmore is the largest house in america, 175,000 square feet >> i can't use my joke >> that's my guess and i'm sticking with it >> i thought it might be kentucky coming up, we're going to talk about the next potential fed move following friday's softer-than-expected numbers jared bernstein will join us we'll be right back.

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chairman of the council of c economic advisers. you are a good soldier, you're here, you're fearless and you're here to make the case about the biden economy and i appreciate it we heard we're going to have a soft or cooler cpi number, a prediction for that on wednesday. if you do combine that with the last couple of months of job growth, things are -- i don't know if it's because of recent legislation but you would have some things you could definitely say are very positive in the economy right now. >> yeah, i think the numbers make the case for bidenomics i'm happy to come out here and talk about them but these are facts. so of course we've had 13.2 million jobs since this president got here and, yes, we've seen some cooling in the job market and that's necessary and important if we're going to appropriately align labor supply and demand

and when you ticked through the job numbers, you hit the highlights and you should but i think improvement in participation. we have a working working participation rate at a high and for women it's the strongest going back to 1968 empower and educate the workforce and a low unemployment rate for 17 months, that's empowering for workers >> i thought that was really nice, my question, because it gave you a great opportunity to talk about it. but just philosophically and i want to hear your answer to this, jared, it's in the wall street journal opinion page, andy kessler the name it have is not very

nice, "the bidenomics blather. "it throws free trade and capitalism under the bus in favor of centralized government controls." there is a conception among certain surk ls that the government is picking and choosing winners and losers and overregulating >> let me speak to that. >> but that's going to be a problem because the government is not the most effective way to choose which path we take in a lot of arenas. and yet the biden administration is doing that. >> so there's a couple of really important and i think foundational pushbacks to that argument >> okay. >> the first is one that's really very underappreciated, which is that we didn't get here and start doing industrial

strategy if you look at our tax code, it's been embedded with industrial strategy almost ever since we've been a country in fact, you can go back to hamilton and see manufactures are in that record but really i'm talking about the modern era where industrial strategy was a function of who who had the best, most connected lobbyists who could get you the best tax brakes and that he p led to a disproportionate group of policies favoring the private sectors. this is not that new, we just think we're doing it more smartly and the second point is that one of the keefe underpinning factors of bidenomics and pillar one is a small public investment and pulling in private investment is that latter part this is not bluk investment. it a full stop this is public investment

incentivizing private investment to stand up a domestic electric vehicle sector, clean energy, a battery sectors, all of those have brought in something close to 500 billion of private capital following in the week of the introduction of the chips act. if you look in terms of manufacturing facilities built in this country, you'lly about 100% increase, private capital at work, which is in stark contrast to what was going on before we got here >> it is an interesting piece. i don't know if you got to see it today combined with a lot of the industrial strategy, there's a lot of -- there's layers of regulation and to get some of the largess from the government,

the government wants child care, wants this you have to cooperate with doing this other -- there's a lot what some people call overregulation in all of this stuff, which seems to gum of the works, jared. do you have acknowledge that >> well, let me point out we have had extremely strong demand for the tax credit and the ira to support domestic chip production and clean energy production, setting up recharging stations across the country. i'd say private entrepreneurs are voting with their feet yes, we've got to be great stewards of taxpayer dollars so we're going to be pretty careful as to how we provide these subsidies. but i think the key point again and this speaks obviously directly opposed to some of the ideas you're telling me about is that this is not just private capital, it's not just public

capital, it's public working together, pulling in private i think one of the very mistaken ideas about trickle down or top down economics was that public investment would be back filled by private that turned out to have it pretty much backwards. public investment in key areas where we need both for ou competitiveness but also for a national security is sewing its strength in pulling in private capital. that it's public-prief synergy which is at the core 1 of bidenomics >> a lot of it hasn't happened yet. we probably should talk in a couple of years. the money hasn't been spent. we're in the process >> i have a feeling you and i will be talk persian gulf in a co -- will be talking in a couple of years >> i hope so i don't want you to stop coming

on i can ask you why do people not like bidenomics -- >> if you ask people on a granular levels, we're seeing number north of 70%. i can show them to you >> but just in terms of approval on how the president is handling the economy, it's underwater >> i think bidenomics in action will move those numbers. why don't we come back and talk about this next time >> will you be back. hopefully. hopefully i'll be here >> thank you zchlkt still to come this morning, fresh insights into the state of the retail adventurer and alex patricof joins us for a chat on a official intelligence and ipo market in the second half of the year you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc and we've been watching what the market is shaping up for this morning. not a lot of movement. dow up 23 points, the nasdaq off about 5. if you've been watching oil prices, let take a look.

right now it looks like wti is off by about 1% to 17.18 a barrel >> it's less than a week until fed members enter their latest blackout period ahead of an interest rate period at the end of the month central central banker will get a read on inflation joining us to tell us what it means, a visiting scholar, it's good to see you, eric. which numbers were most important in your view from last week >> the employment data by far is more important than the adp. the adp is not designed to actually match the labor market for the entire united states it's reflecting primarily adp customers. so if you have a disconnect between the two, the one that i would always pick is the

employment report. and as you noted, the employment report, payroll employment was 209,000. that's much lower than people were estimating, but i think it going to reflect the fact that the employment payroll has been increasing a tt a decreasing ra and i expect that to continue. government was up 60,000 i don't expect that to continue going forward and i do think we're starting to see weakness in some sectors of the economy i think consumers are getting to the point where they're not going to be able to spend excess saving like they did before. the labor market is relatively tight at 3.6% but i expect an easing as we get into the second half, that in the minutes highlighted they're expecting unemployment to go up over the course of this year and next

>> did the move in the 2 had much -- 2-year and 10-year surprise you in the report >> >> i was surprised on thursday i think it's much more consistent with a gradually slowing economy. i would highlight one reason you're see oil prices soft at the same time saudi is cutting back on production, global demand is down because china and europe are relatively weak and i think we'll see the u.s. softening as we get into the later half of the year and assuming that more than likely they increase rates again in july >> you wouldn't raise in july, would you?

>> i actually probably would given that core pce is still going at 4.6%. the staff forecast was for over the year the core pc would end the year at 3.7% that's going to require the core pce to come down in the second half it's really expecting much weaker inflation number as we go forward. i'm not sure it going to come down quite as stickly as the staff but what i wouldn't do is anticipate necessarily a second increase because i do think the real gdp economic numbers are going to be weaker in the second half of the years and i think there will be a soft i don't knows as we get in the second half of the year, maybe not as dramatic of what the staff has in their forecast. >> we had a prediction of a much cooler cpi number on wednesday due to used cars and actually the core number being lower. would that shock you

is it possible >> it's possible that core is lower. i don't think it's going to be low enough to change the fomc's view that core pce is still way too high, even if core cpi comes down, core cpi is 5.3% over the last year so it's a long way away from 2% so i'd be very surprised if the number was so weak that it deterred the fomw this w-- fomc but it might discourage that dot plot increase that members of the fomc were anticipating that would be consistent with my own forecast that they would go up in july and the data will come out weak enough they don't have to do is second one in october. if i'm wrong and the economy stays relatively strong and inflation stays elevated at the core level, then they'll probably do that second increase

>> the bond market started catching up with the fed on thursday, but then, as you said, it didn't last that long and now we're still kind of in different worlds i mean, why is it two year -- if we're going to five and a half or six, the 2-year is still below 5 and the 10-year looks like it's expecting cuts sooner than the fed or anybody else believe, right why to we still have such a big disconnect >> a lot depends on how much you think the second half of the year is going to weaken. so if you think it's going to be relatively softers and if anything a mild recession, that's a very different forecast than if you think it's going to be much more severe. so i think the market is anticipating a more substantial slowdown than i would expect in the second half of the year but i do expect a slowdown i think all the trends are toward weakening data but maybe

not to the degree those in in the bombend market is expecting >> historically we see like we're still at a pretty low interest rate regimen at this point. >> a lot depends on how quickly you want to bring the core inflation rate down. if it's 4.6% and it been growing relatively rapidly over the first five months of this year, you'll have to have substantial weakening in the second half to get anywhere close to the forecast that may happen as shelter comes down and you highlight new and used car prices. i'm not as convinced that i'm also a little skeptical, people have been expecting that both cars and houses were going to soften significantly much

earlier than it has. so i this there's a little bit more resistance to bringing those prices down as quickly as people are anticipating and shelter's been surprising in that it's held up relatively higher than people are anticipating i expect it will come down but i also take into account the fact that people have made pretty big errors on expecting those prices to come down and as a result i think they'll come down but probably not to the degree that some are hoping. >> that's great. thank you. now you living in cambridge? >> i'm living in boston area but not in cambridge >> so you got to go across the bridge all right. very good. where in boston had? louisberg square >> a town called sharon, it's halfway between boston and providence >> i didn't hear >> i didn't understand it either >> it's a town called sharon,

halfway between boston and providence >> and a boy named sue >> a town named sharon all right. thank you, eric. >> when we come back, long-time venture capitalist alan patricof joins us right here. why alan says technology could be an accident waiting to happen as we head to break, a reminder, you can always watch us or st to us live using the cnbc app. stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again.

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our next guess is a long-time author here to offer perspective on the a.i. boom he says it's the biggest trend in tech but also is a big accident waiting to happen joining us is alan patricof. it's nice to see you >> did you run over? >> no, actually i had to give up my morning run for you >> what's your morning run how far? >> i run usually between four and five miles around central park >> he did the new york marathon. >> in all honesty, i jog and walk >> so do i but you're doing, what would you say? how fast are you going, four miles an hour, four and a half >> just a shade under four >> that's a fast -- >> that's the best i can do. >> that is moving. >> it's very fast. i average about a 17-minute

mile >> you're doing it every mile. >> i i was doing workouts with trainer. >> and i have my original knees. >> we sat down with a lot of the engineers behind their a.i. bot and it was impressive but also frightening what a.i. can do >> it was funny, was a i was coming on the show this morning, just for fun i'll go to chat and say what's going on in the market and it says "i'm sorry but we have no information from 2021." >> i've been involved in every technology revolution since 1970 and maybe before that. i mean, when you think of it --

>> since edison really >> a little bit after him. but whether it was a pc revolution, the cloud, the cellular, the internet that's why i wrote the book "no red lights." >> this? >> thank you thanks for showing it. >> and actually -- leaps are coming even more quickly >> this revolution in my opinion, except maybe for the biotech revolution, this by far outweighs anything >> a.u.? >> yeah. >> i think i it's going to change dramatically every phase of our life. i applaud all the people getting into it, when i said it's an accident and you can divide 90 into that, it's a lot of money

to raise a lot of them raise more i just saw the other day one company raised a billion and a half, which is a lot of money. but digital ocean and the way they got it from major investors, microsoft, bill gates, eric smid, reed hoffman, nvidia they all put money in this company and they same time you have amazon, google, everybody else establishing platforms. >> what's the accident, though in. >> it means there are so many companies being formed so fast they all can't make it i leona helmsley, you don't think a.i. is going to go bad and evil and off the rails >> no, no. it's like when crypto came, everybody was running into

crypto >> 1999. >> you could raise -- if you have the word a.i. in front of it, you could raise money for anything today >> and careful and let it sort itself out. there's a.i. -- a.i. has applicability in medicine, it has applicability in finance and any area, and by the way, there are still -- when you use these a.i. sources, there are errors you can't 100% rely on it. i don't think it's going to put everybody out of business. a lot of menial tasks will be replaced by a.i., that's for sure, but i don't think everybody -- i don't think you guys have to worry about your jobs i think they're going to be -- you know, people are still going to be wanting to hear personal interactions and people's thinking spontaneously >> i mean, have you read

kurtsweil or anything in there does come a time when all machine knowledge -- >> but they've been saying since kurtsweil's time >> but the singularity is going to hit in 2040 or something like that what would that mean at that point? >> you know, i don't think we know, but everybody's concerned about productivity and whether that's going to increase as a result i think it's going to have profound impact in medicine and education. >> it will, definitely, but i just wont if der if there's a downside some smart people do think there's a downside >> well, downside is machines taking over from man >> exactly >> but i don't think it's -- i think it's a very important development for all of us. >> are you investing at all? are you kind of staying on the sidelines to wait and see? >> well, i formed this new firm three years ago, primetime partners, which is investing in

any and all products, services, experiences for people -- >> i just mean in a.i. >> that's what i'm saying. i've been waiting for a.i. to start permeating the area we're in, and the last month or so, all of a sudden, i'm seeing a couple of companies in this area one is trying to record memory of people's -- like your whole family background, if you wanted to put together a whole story about becky cricken for the last 50 or 100 years, you have a better chance having a chatgpt to do it and help you, you know, recollect things that are already in print and i'm assuming they're all in print. we have had another company that's interestingly testing for -- testing for early-onset alzheimer's to go through usually a.i., through questioning and testing over a

period of time, which could see any deterioration in mental acuity it sounds simple, but it's not >> that sounds useful. >> to have 98% reliability say i think your memory is slipping, but to be predictable, to be medically acceptable, you've got to really have accuracy so, i see it coming into our area as well, and i'm sure it's going to -- i'm sure we're going to see a lot more companies putting a.i. in their decks. >> al, i want to thank you for coming in. the book, again, is called "no red lights." you can check it out here. alan patricof. >> have a nice summer. >> you too see you soon i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one.

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new this morning, td ameritrade is out with monthly data on retail investor trades tds's investor movement index shows in june, clients increased their exposure overall but were net sellers of equities. they sold consumer discretionary names, industrials, and financials, and stocks that investors bought included disney, target, and at&t stocks sold included nvidia, tesla, amd and meta, and for

more, let's bring in joe, director of trading and education at charles schwab. it's good to see you, joe. so, we always, you know -- past performance, no indication of the future, but otherwise, this information wouldn't be that useful what's it telling us about the near term, do you think? >> well, remember, these are aggregate positions, right this is activity, client positions, it's not what they're telling, it's what they're actually doing that i think is so important i think what we see, especially in the first half of the year, we saw the s&p 500 basically up 14%, and some of the outperformers, amd, nvidia, meta, those were names that clients were trimming a little bit at the end of the month, and i think that's prudent im i think it makes sense one of the things that we have been hearing specifically from clients is this idea of how narrow the rally's been, only about 20% of the s&p 500 names

actually beating the index overall on a 60-day trailing average, so when our clients see names or when they see activity like that, they're trimming it to strength, and i think that's proof. >> so, just trying to follow the herd or trying to go against the grain, what have you seen with -- by monitoring what your clients are doing? are they usually right, or are they usually late to the game, and can you do more by maybe going against what they're doing? >> from our clients, i think what we've seen is we've seen a pickup a bit in some of that activity, sothat 45 they've

become more corrective on the breadth of the rally if you look the a what we've seen over the last couple weeks, specifically, starting in june, what we saw was that s&p 500 now has about 50% of their components trading -- excuse me, about 70% of their components trading above their 50-day mo moving averages. the nasdaq is a little bit more narrow only about 50% of its components are above 50-day moving averages, but we're seeing more disbursement amongst some of the names and outside of the seven monoliths that have been talked about, you know, so often. >> that's a question we ask a lot, joe, and that is whether the magnificent seven, you know, come back to earth or whether everyone else goes up to meet them i guess it could be somewhere in the middle it's useful information, joe, and we appreciate you bringing it to us this morning. thanks >> thank you so much let's get a final check on the markets, which are about

where they have been all morning. we may not see much until wednesday, really. big cpi number on wednesday. for now, we've got mixed dow is up, s&p and nasdaq are both down. let's look at the yield curve, because it really did get quite a scare on thursday. moderated a little the ten-year aboves 4, the two-year below 5%. you're not here tomorrow parting is such sweet sorrow join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange, setting the table for a big week, cpi, bank erarnings and more strategist commentary ten-year, still 4.08%. our road map is going to begin with the big week ahead for investors. key inflation data on deck, lot of fed speak and of course the banks kick