deal with liv golf later this morning. and prime day sales kickingoff today and expecting to bring in billions of dollars for the company. it is tuesday, july 11th, 2023 all-star game for mlb. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live in the nasdaq site on times square. i'm melissa lee alongside joe kernen we are muted looking ahead to cpi data. in the meantime, s&p looking to add seven at the open. dow looking to add 23.

treasuries are quiet the 2/10 2-year moving lower. 10-year note below 4% and moving lower. let's check on oil quiet morning in the oil market. we have wti up .50%. brent up .40%. >> listening for the number tomorrow bond market and stock market is there a whisper number for cpi? i don't know if tom lee is the whisper guy. he said 2.5 core finally a break in used car. >> he said the s&p 500 in the next week. >> i don't know if you were watching i said tom had been doing this a long time. you don't make one-week calls. it is too short-term joe granville was right about the big market crash in 1981

a 28-point crash in the dow. honest a huge selloff 28 points back then. he got a big head and started dressing in a pharoah outfit he was not alllowed on our air for a while. i think he might be right about the cpi. he might be right last week. we got the narrative longer and higher that's what we got from the two jobs reports the second one wasn't strong higher for longer. >> higher for longer that is what the fed has been pressing and finally the markets may be coming around to believing that >> the bond market 5% on the 10-year.

now those have sort of given back the yields on those gains he had a list of components of the cpi and historically exit number in deflationary trend there are more in deflationary trend than typical you could get a cool number tomorrow which gives you 100 points on the s&p. >> what set up is for earnings season >> it will not be great. a headwind for the market that's got the s&p all the way to 4,400. against all odds have you seen "against all odds" movie? phil collins in mexico you never saw that you should put that on your

bucket list. >> i'll get right on it. >> it's like something you should have in your arsenal to talk about that was long before he was the dude a stud "big lebowski". shares of tech heavyweight slide after nasdaq announces index rebalance. the announcement will take effect on july 24th before the market opens alphabet fell 2% amazon, microsoft, tesla and apple fell by 1% or more uber cfo nelson chai is set to leave the company he notified the ceo of the decision timing of the move has not been

fina finalized. he assumed the role in 2018 to help through the ipo in 2019. microsoft confirming more layoffs in addition to the downsizing of 10,000 jobs in january. the company filing a notice yesterday saying it would cut 276 positions in its home state of washington. of those, 66 are virtual i assume the cuts are not virtual. then you would still be working. the basic positions are virtual which are being cut. get the modifier in the right place. the data from the united kingdom show wages grew 7.3% for the second yourear over year. that could force the bank of england to tighten monetary policy they warned high wage growth is a significant impediment in the efforts to bring inflation lower. their numbers are still hotter than ours.

the fed regulatory chief speaking yesterday michael barr said mid-sized bank failures emphasized the need for additional 2% of capital for every $100 of risk weighted assets he will stress the ability over a hypothetical recession they will review compensation. the proposals are expected to be announced this month you want to read >> i have to get to the strike >> in other fed news, barr and two other officials said policymakers neefdd to raise interest rates further mary daly said we will likely need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year

l loretta mester says there will be two more increases this year sdpyear >> i don't know if i'm s.a.g. or afstra >> i don't pay dues. >> i know i'm no scab. if i'm not here -- >> you will be on the picket line >> hollywood actors could join the picket line. they have hours left before the un union contract expires it was set to expire june 30th before extended to tomorrow. if a deal is not reached and actors go on strike, it would be the first time in 63 years that hollywood faced a two-union strike we are dealing with the writers strike late night tv is not on. oh, no >> it started before

>> i know. i don't want to watch, but i'm not up late enough to watch. >> right some people do watch >> cutting edge political humor that's so hard hitting >> you are looking for something -- >> so unpredictable and brave. amc theaters says 20,000 members of the stubs loyalty program purchased tickets to watch "barbie" and on the open evo open -- "oppenheimer. they are selling t-shirts online as well as this poster "mission impossible" is coming i said he is the biggest movie star on the planet to be the biggest movie star on the planet, you need to do your own stunts he does.

you see the tape of the new one on the motorcycle going up the cliff? >> he does that? >> he does it all that himself he is a little off one scene with the parachute se scene. he had to do it 100 times. i think he is amazing. i don't know can i mention one thing? >> it is your show sdp. >> you're right. >> there is no betting >> what do you want to do? >> i bet on the home run thing vlad jr. >> you have time >> you can bet on wimbledon with i mention this because there is an american who is just -- chris eubanks. 27 years old five-set win i thought i taking him

odds of plus 600 if you took him. i didn't do it i didn't do it it is a great story. maybe i'm betting on wimbledon is that too -- with the royal box? is that too -- >> because royalty is involved and they attend? >> because it's -- i don't know. it doesn't seem like the grass courts you should be betting huh? >> i think it is more problematic that you desire so strongly to bet on anything for the action. >> for the action. >> for the adrenaline. whatever it is >> i had vlad last night i had $4 last night on him >> obsessed. >> i won $25 coming up, the amazon annual deal days kicking off.

we will let you know how it impacting the stocks we will talk to jeff currie and how it impacts the oil markets. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. what do you see on the horizon? take the first step to see if your small business uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets

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now to amazon's version of christmas in july. prime day kicks off today. it is expected to make $12 billion. joining me is the retail analyst

at forest research great to have you with us o there will be two days here and another two days in the back half of the year have consumers been trained to wait for prime days and holding back sales from other parts of the year >> that is what happens. we see this with sales tax holidays when people know there are promotions coming, as they do, they save and don't purchase the television or the coffee maker or whatever the big item they may have been holding out for. that is what happens we see that because in the days leading up to it, there is less consumption in the categories and the shopper makes the transaction. >> $12 billion is a lot of money. put that in context. as i understand it, the discounts are steeper. consumer bought a lot of stuff and may not feel the need or not

have the extra cash to buy more stuff. >> right amazon prime day historically every day is the biggest shopping day for amazon. until they hit the holiday season i expect the same to happen again. they often have a team dedicated to sourcing the deals and getting the deep discounts and working with the brands to get the unique product that they get. a significant portion of what they are selling as well as private label. everything from amazon basics to a lot of the key electronics and everything from ring door bells to kindle devices. those are the deeply discounted products that have enormous volume that happens today and tomorrow >> we were just showing viewers the other sites with copycat prime days, for lack of better term target with circle week.

best buy is black friday in july and kohl's here. i'm wondering how you expect that to play out with the other retailers. amazon may be able to have the customer who always goes to buy essentials as well, but other retailers might be robbing themselves of sales down the line >> what we saw last year is we evaluated other merchants and they were comping with amazon. they were trying to get a little bit of transaction volume. what we see is it is 60% of traffic that amazon sees is what other retailers will see the difference is it is spread across hundreds of web sites those retailers are not going to see any type of volume left of

the sales which we see tomorrow through amazon that is really what the consumer expects the deals and consumer is shopping for the deals. the consumer goes back over and over again because they are dropping, so to speak, new products and offers. >> have you gone to look through and see what is the best deal out there? >> yeah. i'm trying to find a great dslr. the issue is you have to keep going back and looking and refreshing the pages to see if there is a brand you are looking for and the hope is that you may stumble across another deal you may have been in the market for. it could be in any category. food or sports category and hopefully you add it to the cart. >> have you noticed the shift in goods? there is the lightning charging

cables and three-pack on sale on prime day. have you noticed new items with the economic back drop >> what we expect to see actually is great deals on electronics. electronics is an interesting category in the last year with so much inflation, it is one of the few categories which experienced deflation. the prime day deals should not only benefit from the deflation, but you should have the volume discounts as well. i expect if you are in the market for any type of electric good, that you consider it and see if it is within your budget and a good price versus what may have been there before our resources like camel, camel, camel, show resources to help you if you are looking for a great deal >> do you know if price match

guarantees cover this as well? is there an extra benefit for con consumers? >> the retailers don't match these price matches. one of the things that is very important to keep in mind which is a lot of the offers are special bundles. they will be unique assoassortm. if you are buying a camera, it will have digital camera with the charging cable and lens and lens cleaning kit. those things end up being difficult to compare across different merchants. you can't go into walmart or target and say this is what i'm looking for you to match because that exact product or bundle is not available in other places. >> thank you for your time i appreciate it. >> thank you coming up, officials from the pga tour are set to testify in front of the senate today

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the pga tour defending its deal with saudi backed liv golf ahead of the senate hearing this morning. coo ron price with the op-ed in the athletic explaining the proposed deal. it should not be considered a merger this is after randall stephenson w w withdrew from the board. we will talk to the ranking sub committee senate member ron johnson about the deal

speaking of the athletic, the new york times announcing it is closing its sports desk and rely on the athletic for sports coverage the times, you might recall, bought the athletic last year, and will provide readers with a number of sports coverage and no layoffs are planned as a result. n modelo sales are topping d light sales for the second consecutive month. bud light in second with 7%. ab-inbev is still dealing with the fallout from dylan mulvaney. and we have scott cohn with latest on what to look at with the business news. scott. >> melissa, we have the jeagenda as we look at the top state for

business for the 16th year since the study began. we will tell you what to expect on "squawk box" and recap in case you missed the die abolical hints from yesterday that's coming up on "squawk box. >> announcer: winners and losers sponsored by state street global advisers the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are waiting the cpi data. nasdaq is up 27 this morning taking a check on crypto we are seeing bitcoin above 30,000 down 1% right now. ethereum is down 1.5%. today's the day. we are getting ready to reveal the top states for business in cnbc's exclusive annual study.

it is happening here on "squawk box. i thought of something, scott. scott cohn is live to give us a chance to guess where he is before the big reveal. becky was sure she had it yesterday on one of your clues, scott. i don't want to give it away she came up with why you said that shakespeare quote she came up with something compelling for that. i don't know if i want to talk about it, really >> probably not. i don't know it was something about boche ball, right? >> vicks vaporub founded by richardson vicks. that made me think that the state where that was still has on the highway cnbc top state

for business they still have it from a couple of years ago when this state was one other time the best. i see it every time i drive down there. i see it in the state. they are still bragging about that it means something this is really good for a state when they get this, scott. kudos. >> yeah. it is why, joe, to be serious for a moment, we take this seriously. we know the states pay attention to this and economic development folks pay attention to this. we really do try to put a lot of thought into this while having a bit of fun i tell you what we have planned today and how this will work in the next hour of "squawk box," we will have the states that are runners up. in the 8:00 a.m. hour, we reveal the state and clear up the mystery and interview the state's governor live.

giving you diabolical hints. joe was talking about one yesterday. there's the rub. beat the rush. old school highlight of my life and big house. they are diabolical hints. you think you know >> for big house, i don't know what she said. she said something that pointed to that state. what are the other ones? let me see that quickly, scott, and try to figure that out >> old school. there's the rub. beat the rush. highlight of my life big house. >> big house you know, i don't want to go to the big house. that's all i can think of when i see that not that i have any reason i ever would you know, you never know scott, yesterday, did you see he was in a place where it was daylight -- >> it looks daylight there i don't think it is the west

coast. >> how could it be the west coast? >> that's a good state for business how could it be the west coast impossible unless you get so woke >> every year, we get some kind of amateur botanist. we decided to drive everybody crazy. >> yeah. a lot going on there those are all real, i assume that one looks -- >> maybe he is just at home depot. in the nursery i would not want to play poker with scott cohn. >> i wouldn't want to stabnd there too long you may see "little shop of horrors" in a second don't get too close, scott when are we doing this what time? >> next hour, the runners up five, four, three, two

at the 8:00 hour, we will end the suspense on "squawk box. >> as it should be, scott. thank you. we appreciate that we'll see you in a minute. coming up, investors bracing for the latest read on cpi we bring you the latest expectations and what it means for the fed next. plus, twitter usage falling after meta's threads launch. get the best of "squawk pod" by following our podcast listen any time. we'll be right back. morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

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markets move a lot around the cpi report that's always a big market event. we thought a tactical opportunity was emerging because last week the market sold off with the jobs report strong and yields popped. investors are fed higher for longer and bearish into this week i think core cpi could be .2% or better that could be a surprise >> now that was tom lee from global advisers on the show yesterday morning with his call that markets could rally this week on a weaker than expected

core inflation report due out tomorrow morning tom was bullish at the beginning of the year on the s&p 500 he was lonely. few people were then he recently went from 4,750 to 4,800. joining us is veronica clark from citi and we hhave victoria greene from g squared. that is confusing. all right. we'll be all right she is a cnbc contributor. veronica, let's start with you this is what tom said. see if you can confirm it for me are most or are there some components of the cpi in de

defl deflationary mode that could give us a cooler than expected number and if you add used car sales finally and if the fever breaks there, could we get a 2.5% read on core? >> that seems low for year on year for core. there are definitely come ponen we see falling tomorrow with used cars sales. we should see more slowing and shelter. they are still really strong the data tomorrow could be weakest we have seen in a while wiwhile >> .02 gives us what >> still about a year on year for headline is 3.0. year on year on core is 4.0. it is still high. >> you would be flabbergasted if

the core was 2.5 what would the markets do, victoria, if it was that cool? you think we get 100 points in the s&p in a week? >> you could i think it is bullish. he is a bullish guy, obviously that would be a huge, you know, miss surprise on the downside for core i don't think it will get there. if it is that cool and used car prices have come down, it is goods versus services. i don't think services have come down enough to get core get there. you get a 2 print and suddenly everybody is excited nobody cares about headline. headline has been moved around with the base effect and what is going on with energy it truly is about core i don't think disinflationary goods is getting us there. >> you have not given an all

clear on the equity markets at this point, victoria on the contrary? >> i think you need to listen to the bond market and commodity market it is rallying like everything is priced in i don't see the all clear yet. i see the inverted yield curve that is never failed to signal recession. the commodity market is under pressure with the metals you have two signals saying things might get worse before it gets better. the equity markets is fine and all clear. go ahead and invest. there is no risk in the second half there is risk. the ecb and fed will signal even if we are reaching the end of hikes, it is higher for longer cuts aren't coming they are still trying to tighten. it is too much to overcome all of this good news is priced in so the concern is what

happens with the earnings or if the cpi is not good there is most risk where we're trading at 4,400 >> veronica, last week was interesting. people said the adp report usually doesn't have that big effect on yields it did maybe it is because of the round numbers or whatever reason we went over 4 on the 10-year. we went over 5 on the 2-year that is what tom was talking about. the narrative solidified the higher for longer narrative. that report. on friday, there was some wage gains there. the number was nowhere near what the adp number was it was only 209. what was that last week? what did you take away from the two labor market reports >> i think people tried to look at that adp number as an early signal of nfp. it is really not a great indicator for where nfp will

come in. it is undershooting payroll. the official data. june was catch up there. i would say that 200,000 or 209,000 nfp is a strong number we had unemployment rate falling and pick up in wages and jolts and quit rate data is telling us this is a tight and strong labor market >> what do you think two more hikes minimum, veronica >> yeah, yeah. the risks are balanced we have two more hikes that's july. i think july hike is close to a done deal. we are pencilling the next one in for september that is two consecutive hikes. maybe november or maybe they wait the data over the summer is still going to look strong especially we might get the slowing in cpi inflation pce inflation that the fed tar gets can stay higher for longer.

we are pencilling in july and september and also rates stay higher for longer than we expect >> what would it take, victoria, when do you think we're in the clear where people can invest for the long term and feel good and whether it is 5% lower or 10% low sner. >> -- lower? >> you need a pullback of 5% we got stretched on valuations we saw earnings pick up. it is not as low as q1 i need earnings pick up. i need revisions to move positive we need to go through the cycle so i need to see the economy contract and come back i don't think we actually saw the contraction yet. there is more pain to come you look at the -- >> nope. >> you look at the markets you have to see the unemployment number come up >> all right we will have to end it there

i want to thank you both i got it straight, victoria, veronica good to you have on. famous basketball coach. clarence edward "big house" gaines he was from north carolina winston salem. >> it adds >> the big house is where the wolverines play. >> okay. >> you i don't think michigan? it is a good comeback story in detroit. we have seen it. >> i don't know if the other things fit there's the rub? >> i don't know what that could be you said it could be a barbecue rub. that doesn't narrow it down. >> true. i thought it could be rub-a-dub-dub like a duck? >> vicks vaporub. >> that is solid >> good job by becky

i think she was monitoring twitter. funny what you see on twitter. >> i bet there is betting on this i found the sweet spot something you are obsessed with. >> i wonder if that is a good idea we talk about elizabeth homes. updated records show she is scheduled to be released in december of 2032 after serving just nine and a half years the bureau did not give a reason for the shortened sentence calculations factor good behavior and surrender da date among other circumstances nine and a half years.

nine and a half hours sounds like a long time nine and a half days take my shoelaces. they do that >> to make sure. you never know how your mind is processing >> the belt. former ceo talking about the push for oversight next for crypto reminder, you can watch us any time on the cnbc app

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♪ in today's headlines, senator elizabeth warren and three other lawmakers are urging the pentagon to thoroughly review l3 harris's nearly billion-dollar deal, and the acquisition could lead to complications, and hca says it will offer credit monitoring services to affected patients.

mark mahaney citing a.i. as a target for the company, and meta moves down to the number three spot after a major rally in the stock the price target for meta stands at 350 >> old school is great stealy dan song, but guess who claims -- three universities claim the oldest the university of georgia, and the university of north carolina, chapel hill and

college of william and mary, and for different reasons. north carolina was the first to hold classes, and georgia was the first created by a state charter, so they all claim, and we are back to north carolina, old school, are you ready to -- >> to what >> let's have a personal bet >> i don't like to bet i don't enjoy that at all. >> a dollar? >> i would rather have a dollar in my pocket than a in yours >> you wouldn't rather have two dollars? >> not at the risk of losing a dollar joining us to talk crypto, the coin share's chief strategy officer, and thank you for saving me from the bet >> that in bitcoin could be a great online bet >> probably better in bitcoin

than a dollar, and bitcoin rallied, what, 18% gbtc closed the asset rally, and all this is basically saying that people think the atf bitcoin will be approved are you in that camp >> i think there are two components here. this is all about sentiment. black rock filing for a atf is a huge moment. most ceos in the financial services were the same, and they thought it was not legitimate, but now they think it's a stamp of approval, and whether or not we like to believe it, that does

really matter when it comes to sentiment related to bitcoin and the broader aspect class, and sentiment leads to flows if we look at sentiment when sentiment changes, flows change. >> does it matter if the atf application, if they get rejected, does the sentiment still improve simply by the fact that blackrock was onboard and did file for an atf? >> i don't think it's going to be the case. what we really need to see here -- at the end of the day the story is the flows over the last three weeks alone following the black rock application, there are flows that materialize off the back of the news at the end of the day, the big

question, i think, everybody should be asking themselves as we head into the second back half of the year and we head into 2024 is where are these inflows going to come from at the end of the day, there are trillions in tax advantage assets, and investor assets not currently getting into bitcoin because it's hard to, and there are a lot of structural inefficiencies with the other products out there that use the cash settled futures product at the end of the day, this is a story of inflows and out flows, and without the inflows i don't think we see a lot of major price catalysts come coming up, a look at what is moving markets this morning as investors await inflation data at the start of earning season,

and then later, senator ron johnson will join us ahead of his sub committee's meetings on the pga tour an architectural- deal tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

futures fighting for a second day of gains after a stock snapped the three-session slide, and that was yesterday up about ten points this morning on the dow the war between threads and twitter heating up a countdown to the top state for business is on we'll break down some of the names on the list before the big reveal in the next hour, as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times

square, and i am joe kernen, along with -- >> i feel very comfortable >> andrew and becky are both off, as you can see. big gains yesterday, which were not necessarily obvious in the premarket that that was the way things would turn out. the dow was up more than 200 points when all was said and done treasury, inversion has narrowed a little bit, and now the 10-year is below 4%. some of the things we saw at the end of last week reversed. bitcoin spiked up above 31 at one point yesterday, 31,000, and

then immediately came back down. you can see it's holding above 30,000, but it's off about 1% this morning let's get straight to dom chu with the premarket movers. christmas in july is what a lot of folks call amazon day for today and tomorrow 100,000 shares of volume, three quarters of 1% gain. also new this morning, analysts over at wells fargo added amazon to their signature pick. amazon has been pretty much a juggernaut so far this year. on the banking side of things we have shares of america's biggest

ban, jpmorgan chase. it's getting some help this morning by analysts over at jeffries that upped the target price to 146 jpmorgan also up 9% here to date and another price target boost for nvidia shares are up just about a share or so. the price target was upped to $550 strong demand not only from artificial intelligence start ups, but also their traditional enterprise as well melissa, we are talking about the best performing stock in the

s&p 500, so maybe no surprise folks are getting more bullish on this given that they may or may not have missed the move already. >> earning season is maybe a reason for analysts to hold off on changing ratings, but nvidia came in and reaffirmed their guidance, and that's a good sign >> because we are entering the earning season, often times we will see some of the estimates get a little more conservative heading into the earning season. it doesn't seem to be that way for any of the tech media and telecom services or technology, or consumer discretionary, and you wonder if there are a lot of folks on one side of the boat, so to speak. >> do you have a pick for which state it is, dom >> he's looking for somebody to bet, dom

>> no, scott works hard on this, and he gives a lot of clues and they are diabolical, and i fall for it twitter, people go crazy and they are sending answers to the clue do you have an idea of what state it is, dom chu >> from my former days on wall street, i tend to look at history -- you look at data, right, and you look at the way things happened in the past, and it's like technical analysis i went back to the last three or four years worth of top states list, and there are always ten or 12 near the top of the list, and it shifts back and forth >> so what did you come up with? >> but i can't reconcile it with the clues, right big house, the rub, and everything else. i think it's georgia >> no, no, no. scott's way too woke he would not give it to georgia. >> scott is too woke >> i don't know if it's scott

that is too woke but i have to applaud the production team that puts this together, because we are insiders here at cnbc, and i have no clue where those guys are or what they are doing right now, and they have kept it such a big secret >> north carolina couldn't win, and then it won -- >> i think the environment is such that these political issues are a bigger thing for states, for businesses to deal with, you know, in terms of the ranking of states >> georgia had its own issues with hollywood studios, and even a campaign maybe by coke -- against coke and ups at one point, but georgia is still at the top of the list. >> no way, no way, florida it could be the greatest state in the known universe -- >> it's not the issue itself, it's that the states would intervene with how a business,

you know, operates >> i also don't know how much -- remember, scott took us through the methodology, the highest weighted things don't factor into those political issues -- >> well, the big house was the nickname of a coach at winston salem state, and my old school, chapel hill claims to be the oldest university. there's three strong ones, and it has won before, north carolina has, because they still have the sign on the highway, dom. >> what about virginia if you want to talk about one of the oldest universities out there in charlottesville -- >> virginia is always good because -- the money from d.c. just -- it just oozes down into virginia

you cannot fail -- >> it's just throwing all of this -- >> that's going to go on the highlight reel >> that's fine did you see kris eubanks yesterday, dom >> i did not >> great story our next guest says we are still in a secular bull market and still thinks -- i used still twice in the same sentence let's bring in marianne, the chief investment strategist. did you have a bullish target at the beginning of the year, marianne >> we generally don't have targets, but what we said coming into the year that we thought we would get the best buying opportunity in the market this year since 2008 and 2009 we did say that.

>> okay. on previous appearances when i would ask you if you thought the october lows would not be retested, you thought a lot of people thought 4200 was going to be a difficult range to get out of before testing the lows and seeing some type of final of throwing in the towel or capitulation, and that never happened when did you pick 4,800? >> when we finally broke out of resistance around 4,200, that gave us the all clear we would go up and test the highs, which were near 4,800 on the s&p >> is this going to be near term is the cpi's number in tom's view, is that going to be so cool that we see this start this week, start -- do you think by the end of the year? that's a pretty good move, about

10% more or maybe a little less? >> it is, and obviously, joe, we had fireworks for the first half of the year. we had tremendous gains in the s&p and nasdaq we have been in a consolidation phase right now. you can still get a 5 to 10% pullback, but even if we do that in july, i think we can rally up into august, and have our seasonal correction in the fall and still have a great year end rally. when the first half of the year is really strong, that trend stays in place, and we think that trend will continue we're going to have pretty good gains this year, which, as you know, joe, most people were not anticipating so you don't always want to run with the crowd >> you think if there is a correction it would be tech, consumer discretionary, and do you think cyclicals, either way you would buy them >> yes, the cyclicals that we

are looking at now that we are buying we think are the industrials. we are watching this space closely. they are already at 52-week highs. it's going to be a signal that the markets can continue to rally. another thing we are watching is apple. you know, apple is an important stock. it had an important breakout we think it's pulling back here and is tegssting the breakout, n it could pull back to 178 or 180, but if it stays in that state it's another positive sign for the market although we could get a correction in consumer discretionary, we think you should be buying this correction and not selling the correction >> the yield curve do you think the highs are in? it looked like they were going to try and challenge it after last week, but that faded

quickly, but not to say they couldn't go back up with a hot number on wednesday. >> when we look at interest rates, what is important, joe, is we are looking at the two-year treasury yield and that hit a new high but couldn't hold it last thursday we are getting what is called negative divergences, and that means the likelihood is that rates on the two-year are going down we still think rates at the two-year and the ten-year are in a topping process, and if that's correct that could be bullish for the markets. the u.s. dollar has not rallied as rates tried to rally. i feel that rates are in a peaking process and can come down a little bit, and that would actually be positive for the markets as well. >> what should i do with apple when should i buy it >> the technical level we are

looking at on a pullback is 178 to 180 >> it has been as high as o194. you think it has room to run after this consolidation >> this is significant, joe, to have the largest stock in the market, to have a one-year breakout on a technical basis is really significant i don't think the market is paying attention to this enough, because i think it's a leader within the market and it's telling you the direction the market is going. >> where are you based >> i am in nyack, new york >> you don't have a opinion, best state for business, marianne >> no, joe, i'm sorry. >> you want to bet on what -- >> you are desperate, joe. >> marianne, never mind. i don't think it will be new york i don't know what it is.

maybe, you know, 60% total tax rate might not be so great -- >> no. >> marianne, thank you >> thank you, joe. take care. >> all right >> has new york ever won no >> how could it? do you think california is on the list >> no. >> san francisco the most liveable city. all right, coming up, the reveal of cnbc's top state for business we will have a look with other names on the business before the top state is showcased in the next hour. the impact cuts, we will wlk crude and commodities, and weill dive into the latest social media war "squawk box" will be right back. there are some things that go better... together. hey! like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings.

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you know the issues, you have heard the hints scott cohen is back. i have been doing a lot of heavy lifting and it's all i have been talking about, and i know you

appreciate it. a lot of people are saying it's michigan has michigan been making strides? i know detroit is on a great comeback path, hopefully >> there's a lot of interesting stuff going on in michigan you will be able to see the whole study when we reveal the top state next hour, and i am glad i didn't have to be on and test my poker face, and i appreciate the heavy lifting we really do appreciate it >> i have not bet on it. melissa acts like it's all about betting and it's not, and i just like all your clues. that's why you do them you have perfected this. >> we try, joe again, there's a serious study behind this. we put all the states through 86 matrix in ten categories of competitiveness, and we are about to narrow it down for the 16th year. let the countdown begin.

state number five, minnesota, the north star state. great roads are part of a solid infrastructure, and wins points for technology and innovation, but with high taxes and low incentives, minnesota is an expensive place to do business number four, the peach state solid state finances and a healthy housing market contr contributes to one of america's most great states. and then number three, tennessee, one of the best community college states, and with high crime and a crackdown on lgbtq rights, tennessee

finishes 43rd for life, health and inclusion. our 2023 runner up, virginia, the old dominion with solid support for its great universities, it's america's top education system and a leader in access to capital. virginia is our most decorated state, a five-time winner, but you will pay dearly to do business here, and that's one reason virginia comes up short this year. >> there you go. that's 5, 4, 3 and 2 we will tell you the top state for business with our big reveal next hour. we will talk with this state's governor and tell you why it's america's top state for business guys >> when you were at three, i was cheering for number two to be virginia because if north carolina is not in the top five, the last two are going to be virginia and north carolina, and when you said virginia i -- >> he bursts out in happiness.

>> i screams i don't know why -- why am i so -- >> invested in this? >> yeah. i don't know why >> we do it for you, joe >> every year! and yet it never gets old for me, andthat's what is kind of sd what year is this? >> we started in 2007, and we didn't public our list in 2020 because of the pandemic, so we have done it 17 years, but this is the 16th year >> it never gets old >> doesn't get old for me either, obviously. >> i forget last year, and it's like it's all new for me, and i can read books again and see movies a couple times, and that's awesome, scott, it's great. we will see you in an hour i have a pretty good idea. dom chu thinks he knows and he tweeted it out >>uh-oh.

>> that's next hour. >> i know where lana turner wins, or rita hayworth, and she's from some town in north carolina scott, good clues. what time? 8:00 >> next hour the next hour. >> what time >> 8:15. >> okay. thank you. coming up, goldman's jeff currie on oil. and looks like a single digit gain there we'll be right back.

the e-commerce giant, amazon is asking the second highest court in europe to overturn its classification as a large online platform

coming up, america's billionaires are cashing out robert frank has an inside look at which executives are unloading stock. and is threads the twitter killer some twitter investors appear to be making big bets on both platforms. "squawk box" will be right back. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

welcome back to "squawk box. energy prices right now, 73.39 on wti, and this comes after oil rallied last week, and that's on news that the world's largest exporters will cut production in august for more let's bring in jeff, the commodities researcher at goldman sachs. you were explaining some, i guess, softness in crude based on supply, but it would be a long-term bull case is more than intact are we seeing the beginnings of that or are we not quite there

yet? >> we are seeing it across all natural kaucommodities. inventory and oil is drawing, and time spreads are tightening, and all indications of a bull structure. the problem is investors are entirely absent, and in other words this is an unloved rally that is not part of, you know, investors' portfolios right now. i think, you know, it's just -- the demoralization of false starts over the course of this entire year, this is not, you know, the first time we have seen a run at this you go back to april when you took a run at 88 and it collapsed back down. our base case is this current rally moves up into the mid-80s,

and the end of year targets, $86 a barrel and we think it could move into the low 90s next year. i think part of the reason why people are unwilling to embrace it is they go, hey, there's a lot of uncertainty around the supply and it's being driven in russia, iran and venezuela, and it's easy come, easy go. i think there's not a lot of faith of what is going on in china right now. the other aspect, i think investors are grappling with is what we call a two-speed economy. oil is more exposed to services but it also has the exposure to chemicals and manufacturing which creates a big question mark, and i think that's why investors have been slow to embrace it to give you some numbers, high frequency data, first week of july, put draws globally at 900 barrels a day, and we think they

will accelerate during the third quarter and that's what is going to push you up into the mid-80s. a big question mark of how high we go is how do investors embrace this >> earlier onward wide exchange i saw frank talking about, you know, i was listening but i am not sure exactly whether he was talking about the u.n. secretary general or the iea, and he was talking about oil demand and where we will be in the future and the energy demand, and the individual was saying we need $12 million investment in fossil fuels to satisfy -- do you know which numbers i am talking about? >> yeah, and by the way, i don't like to split between the fossil fuels and the green. we need a lot of money it's close to $20 trillion whether it's the green and the brown, and we are not seeing it. even green has fallen to the wayside because a lot of the

green investments are not profitable i don't care if it's brown or green, you know, that's the core of the long-term story, or copper production, and that's critical to the green cap x, and we are missing that across the entire commodity complex and that's core to the super cycle thesis and one note on supply that is important, and we're looking at yules approaching the price cap. these price caps are not -- they don't make economic sense. once you hit them and go above it, you start to lose supply it creates a backward-bending supply curve, meaning the higher the price goes the less supply you have, and so we have to be careful as we begin to hit that. when you look out beyond that, the supply situation on a forward basis becomes relatively

scarce in asia, what we are seeing is the opec plus production cuts are beginning to bite, and you see that in the pricing. we are starting to see the supply side have an impact on prices >> obviously it's an all-in energy policy. >> it's not just energy, it's like, copper, and the -- >> well, the numbers aren't adding up for what we are being told to do and what we will need to do. we enjoy the global economy that we have right now and we all take it for granted the way the goods are traveling, you know, at basically at the speed of light to wherever they need to be globally, and people have heat and the rest of the world wants to come up to the standard of living of developed countries. how much barrels a day will we need in 2030, and what are we using today?

earlier, that's what it was, it was huge increase in barrels per day between now and 2035 do you know the numbers? >> we are running it right now, call it 101.5 million barrels a day. >> where is it going >> some people put it as high as 110 before you peak out in early 2030 it means you need a lot more supply i think the one key point here is the economics out there do not discourage the consumption of hydrocarbons. they try to stimulate green consumption through carrots, but there's no sticks to be able to slow down the consumption of the hydrocarbons, which there are a lot of risks of more barrels per day. >> you said we are at 82%, and that's where we were ten years ago on the global energy, and it's fossil fuels, and how much

have we spent and it's still at that percent >> trillions of dollars and we havenot made a dent, and in 2022 we brought all the coal and oil production back online and it creeped back into the 82% range. we have a long ways to go in terms of making a big dent on the hydrocarbon portion of our energy supply. you know, right now let's call it an 82-18 split. net zero is a long ways away from here. >> seems like we could be -- i was looking up to see who the person was, and i did find some of the u.n. secretary general said, they said we have to get off hydrocarbons now, and how do you say that with a straight face >> even the ipcc gives a timeline of how to unwiped the

hydrocarbon consumption, and they have that unwinding over decades, and it's not immediately. incremental green investment this year is over 15 trillion -- excuse me, in decade that's a lot of investment that is needed and we don't even have the metals production, and there needs to be a big rotation of capital in the space to be able to accommodate the increases required this will be one of the biggest investment endeavors ever ventured on, and we have not even started >> maybe things will start going up >> that's what needs to be happening. we're back to the same environment we were two years ago where tech is driving everything and energy in is the backseat >> will we see blackouts >> i will not go there, but you

get a hot summer in europe, places like france and that comes with the nuclear, and you get a drop in wind, the production, those types of shortages could occur again. >> all right jeff, thanks seems like we are ostriches, and we are saying we need this and it's not based on, you know, reality. >> yep >> it's a fantasyland. >> thanks. coming up, the first half market rally created a window for ceos and tech billionaires to unload stock again. later, the pga deal with liv golf is on capitol hill, and that is just ahead "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now have turned solid lehly higher right. jeffries is raising the price

target on airlines american is up from $15 a share, and also the price target was raised for delta, and southwest new price target is up 40 from 32 united 60 a share at this point. now to a list of billionaires and ceos unloading stock. uber ceo becoming the latest high profile corporate leader to sell shares. how much has been sold so far this year, robert. sounds like a lot. >> it is a lot, melissa. they have sold $9 billion worth of stock this year the walton family topped the list with more than $4.5 billion in sales the family typically sells to stay under their pledged ownership threshold at walmart as they continue to buy back the

shares, and many of the biggest sales are in tech. the billionaire, the aiirbnb co founder, and there's more pocket change after larry ellison sold $848 million and salesforce ceo, palo alto ceo and three borders of nvidia also big sellers and this comes after $4 billion of stock sales by him last year. and josh harris selling $210 million of apollo stock and that will help him pay the $6 billion

price tag for the washington commanders >> have been been buys of stock? >> not much, only a billion of insiders this year >> a lot of them were founders, so they didn't acquire -- they didn't have to buy the shares. >> yeah, they had a low basis. >> i don't know if you can use this as a insider selling versus insider buying, right? >> well, it's an indicator, you had high-profile purchases, and -- >> charles schwab, not the ceo -- >> the ceo, exactly. i think there's just another indicator, these people have the best information about their own companies and the best information about the value of

their shares, and so there are sales going on >> eastman kodak thought he had to buy a lot of stock at 80 bucks, and got to buy it, and again and again buying g.e. shares, so -- >> a lot of it could be for the public, and especially if you are buying stock sell something a little different. it's often related to what they are doing with their personal finances opposed to what is happening with the stock >> thank you >> north carolina. built more, big house. >> the top state >> north carolina was my guess >> the biggest house vanderbilt ever built, the biggest one was in north carolina. >> there are a lot of vanderbilt homes, and all the vanderbilts

squandered their money on all the big homes. you can only sit in one room, and i don't understand that and the twitter and threads war. are you on threads, robert >> i am. >> are you >> yeah. >> and we are looking at the winners and losers of the s&p 500 this morning we'll be right back. what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money...

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appeauber is replacing meta the number one long, and the price set for uber is $75. and the price target for amazon 150. and meta moves to number three after a major rally in the stock. the price target there, $350 a share. here's the question. is threads the twitter killer? some twitter investors appear to be making big bets on both platforms. axios reporting that some of the investors are invested in meta dan premack, the business editor at axios good to have you with us

i would imagine their investment and twitter and elon musk predates the advent of threads, and it's hard to say they are making bets on both, and it just happens to be that meta is launching a competing app. >> yeah, twitter slash meta have always been competitors in some case. obviously, meta is a much larger, much more diverse company. these bets obviously pre-date that it will be interesting to see if perhaps given this direct competition, maybe some folks divest of meta, which is obviously a public stock you can do that a lot easier than divesting of twitter. and there were two investors in twitter who helped elon, who actually got rid of their twitter stock in q1 before threads was even launched. >> you've got to think that part of that is a rally we've seen in shares of meta in the first half of the year, a rip-roari ing ral there, but is there a lot of crossover between those who are invested in twitter and those who are invested in tesla?

because for some time, investing in twitter was a way to make sure your tesla investment would work >> there's also some overlap and some venture capital firms that aren't still invested in tesla, who used to, but are infovestedi spacex the general philosophy of folks who back to twitter, it's a small number, the general philosophy seems to be, we don't know if twitter is a good investment per se in general, but we trust elon, because elon has madeus money in tesla or i spacex, so we'll bet on him more than betting on twitter, per se. >> you also didn't want elon to have to sell stock in order to cover twitter's debt there's another potential reason f for investing in twitter at the time of the deal are you on threads now, and what's your take on the rapid rise growth at this point? >> i am on there i got on there a day or two after it launched.

you know, i think, me, myself and a lot of journalists are unusual use cases. i use twitter primarily as a work tool. for me, threads doesn't work like that yet, it's not functional yet like that because a lot of the features it hasn't yet unrolled and because it has said, and adam asarri says they are not planning to emphasize news or politics, which are kind of some of the biggest use cases of twitter but i think a lot of the adoption so far is a middle finger to elon and shows some of his real enforced errors that by being so abrasive and so hostile to a lot of the power users of twitter, a lot of them have gone to threads as a bit of a protest against him. and i think he could maybe try to get those folks back if he's able to recognize the error of his ways, but he's got to do so soon one of the thing that impresses me so much about threads, you're talking about 100 million users in less than a week, it hasn't gone down or slowed down or have been glitches.

i know they have a ton of engineers at meta, but that's still a remarkable accomplishment >> you highlighted the differences between use cases for both platforms do you think it's enough for advertisers to say, we will forego advertising on twitter and go to threads. >> my excess is most advertisers will do both, if the numbers are still there on both platforms. but certainly, one of the big fears or concerns advertisers have expressed about twitter, and this pre-dates elon, but has become more acute with him in charge is they don't, which spark a lot of the most toxicity, if that is being not deemphasized, at least not emphasized i think that is going to be something that gives a lot of brands a lot more confidence in where they want to put their money. >> sort of ironic now that elon has become the poster child for all things that ails social media and now mark zuckerberg is sort of the savior, is the creator of the safe space, when

not too long ago, he was the poster child >> i was surprised, at least in the early days, it's something new and shiny and people get excited. i've seen a lot of media people who have been on threads who were extolling the virtue of threads as opposed to twitter. i think there's a bit of a danger here, you know, facebook/meta was already the biggest media distributor in the world, anybody who works at a company like mine sees the amount of traffic that comes from facebook. but facebook is an alternative distribution platform, it's a little problematic to me if meta were to kill it, that just takes another player off the board >> are we expressing surprise that mainstream media prefers the old twitter and facebook, that totally did their bidding for exactly what they wanted people to see and not see, and were finally called out on it.

it was so blatantly apparent that elon musk had to spend $40 billion, just to right the ship. maybe mainstream media thinks -- >> do you think he's righted the ship >> i do. in terms of twitter. in terms of -- when i look at it now. of course, mainstream media will say, it's awful, and all of these mean things are happening on twitter right now, and i like twitter much better than i liked it before -- >> you may, but joe, there's a reason. >> i'm not mainstream media, that's why you shouldn't be surprised if mainstream media loves mark zuckerberg again, because now you don't see any of that mean stuff that you don't want to so. >> joe, the 100 million people who are on threads, that's not all mainstream media >> i'm not saying it, by the coverage of it by mainstream media and your analysis of it will be based on the perception that oh, my god, it's a kinder, gentler, you won't see any old

stuff. no twitter no vaccine information no laptop. none of the stuff that that group of people wanted to see was there. and now it's going to be like that again on threads, so they can embrace that as a home, instead of all of the unsettling stuff to that group of people. >> joe, i'm actually not going to discount what you're saying, except to say that a big part of why mainstream media or one of the main reasons that we are talking about this right now is that 100 million plus users. that's not why most of those people have gone there a lot of the coverage at least of the media interest in threads now in terms of coverage is coming because of the massive adoption those are numbers you can't ignore >> everybody had instagram other people think it's going to be like -- do you still have your parlor account? >> i do have a parlor account somewhere. >> did you have a parlor account? >> i did and i have a truth social account, but neither of thos platforms even at their height got anywhere close to what

threads is getting >> obviously not they weren't mark zuckerberg and they weren't instagram but we'll see, as people say, at the end of the day, nobody ever talks about the beginning of the day, but at the end of the day, we'll see whether this is clubhouse or whether it's a twitter killer we'll see. i wouldn't, you know, i wouldn't sell elon musk short the cage match, i've got money on elon, too he's like twice zuckerberg >> i do hope at least just as somebody who does like twitter, i do hope that this might be a forcing mechanism for elon to -- he's not got competition he's owned this thing for eight months without any competition >> we've got to go, guys >> to start censoring things that's what you want from elon >> i'm not talking about censorship, joe. you're bringing that up. >> to be continued dan, always a pleasure coming up, america's stop state for business revealed. scott cohn is standing by with an interview and a special interview with that state's governor we'll be right back.

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so you can live your life. that's life well planned. rich, velvety coffee. café quality espresso. one high-pressure system that can do both. brew to your heart's desire with the l'or barista system. a masterpiece in taste. good morning stocks coming off their first positive session in the last four futures fairly calm at the moment, ahead of some big data coming in the next few days. and let the buying begin amazon's prime day kicks off is it really that meaningful for

the company's bottom line? better be a lot of billions to move that one. we'll ask and try to answer that question and it's time finally for the big reveal of america's top state for business in 2023 it's a nice place, both -- wherever it happens to be. wherever it happens to be is probably a nice place. it's all nice. all 50 states. we're just minutes away, so stay with us as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm melissa lee along with joe kernan we're sort of waiting for that cpi report wednesday morning, but the s&p is now up 11 points. the nasdaq looking to be higher by about 50.

taking a look at treasury yields, we're seeing a little bit of an apbatement in the two and them-year yield levels the two-year at 4.852. >> among today's top business stories, uber chief financial officer nelson cheye is planning to leave the company in what would be the biggest executive departure since a ride hailing company went public in 2014. people in the business say that the date of the departure hasn't yet. made apple today launching an online store on ten cent's wechat messaging app in china the move will give apple more access to apple's 1.2 billion users and continues the trend of the company trying to grow its presence in china. and dominion energy will sell its 50% state in maryland's

liquefied natural gas facility to a unit of berkshire hathaway. what a pain it is to try to put berkshire on our board >> yeah. >> all of those numbers. >> we need to -- i don't know, scientific notation might work i don't remember how to do it, though the copoint facility is a critical link in the lng infrastructure and upon closing, berkshire hathaway energy would end 75% cove point >> let's get every to dom chu with a look at this morning's pre-market movers. >> we'll kick things off with a check on some dow components first is 3m. nearly higher my about 2% or so. just around 25,000 shares of volume the diversified industrial company known for everything from scotch tape to post it notes to industrial filters is getting upgraded to a neutral from a prior underperform at bank of america. they keep their $110 price

target they cited things like more clarity around litigation risks, an underappreciated restructuring story, unlocking value for shareholders so 3m shares, not great so far this year, but up 1.5% premarket. another dow component on the move is jpmorgan chase america's biggest bank is up 1%, pre-market, around 30,000 shares of volume, helped in part by analysts at jeffries the target price goes up to 165. it was 149 they like jpmorgan's more stable earnings outlook, better revenue streams and diversity and think it's best positioned for rising capital requirements down the line and we'll cap it off with the real estate side of things not dow component, but shares of zillow group are up 5% the online platform for home sale listings, mortgage data, is getting upgraded to overweight the target price gets boosted to 62 from 42 they like the trajectory for

market share gains and broker advertising budgets and better housing macro trends going forward. so joe, zillow, real estate up 5% right now pre-market. i'll send things back over to you. >> thanks, dom stay tuned it's coming. you know it's coming stay tuned for this, too >> yes >> let's get to today's big retail store, the kickoff of amazon prime day for some reason, courtney, i'm more excited about the state for business than i am for prime day. >> oh, really? i came all the way in and you're already telling me, just move on >> no, you can do that i don't do a lot of shopping >> maybe you should look zp >> i have everything >> that's true >> that's nice what do you get a man who has everything but amazon has millions of options for you. it actually started five hours ago and takes place this year in 24 countries with millions of deals. that's more than ever before

so insider intelligence estimates that amazon's prime day sales will increase 10% over last year, totaling more than $8 billion, in the u.s. worldwide, sales could be more than $13 billion for this event. and wile andy jassy told cnbc last week that prime day is a driver for new member signups, amazon u.s. prime membership is at saturating, estimating 167 million americans are prime members, down slightly from 170 million a year ago the research group thinks the go goal of prime day is now to get prime members to sell in new categories, specifically apparel and grocery. while it estimates about 73% of americans have access to a prime account for this area's deals, that's the lowest level in five years. that coupled with consumers

dealing with inflation could soften sales >> it's troubling with high inflation and when you can come up with a value, last year prime members c'ested over $1 p 7 billion on prime day alone and we're expecting to exceed that this year. >> amazon ceo andy jassy says consumers are buying, but a price conscious, trading down and bargain hunting, which could help or hurt sales, depending on how you look at it >> i think the notion of saturation is interesting, particularly when they've put on fees for delivery for groceries and whether or not they would develop over kinds of revenue. >> and i think the other end of the coin, which isn't necessarily retail, but to make that prime membership valuable, they're pushing the prime video. and andy jassy talked about that a lot with john ford and said

that's what's driving new member signups, even more than that fast, free shipping. they are trying to add value in lots of different ways they upped the membership annually to $139 from $119 of course, the cost of shipping is higher for everyone they're current to get the current prime members to spend more in more categories, but try to be a little protective of those profit margins >> and this is putting pressure on retailers across the board to offer similar sales this week. >> absolutely. so we do always see that that you've got these other retailers sort of pile on. the question is, does it help others and generally the idea is, yes, to a degree. there's probably some incremental sales. consumers are smart, they're going to look, see it's prime day, make sure that that's the best value for them. check the other websites, dynamic pricing definitely plays a role in these prices can change pretty dramatically personalization can make things, different prices for everyone. there's kind of a game and a lot of homework that consumers need

to do to play this right >> what are you going to buy >> you know, it's funny, i woke up this morning at $3.23:20 a.mo this show. i was like, it's prime day, i want to see if there are any deals. there was nothing. i don't want need anymore phone chargers, i don't need anymore pillow protectors. >> wait, i could get apple phone chargers >> maui don't neat ed apple one. >> there are some apple deals, i don't know specifically, you'll have to look for yourself, but potentially, there could be. >> amazon.com? >> there's this thing called the internet w-w-w -- >> i heard it's going to be a big deal >> al gore invented that, right? >> so he says. >> courtney. >> thank you coming up, the wait is over.

scott cohn is live in america's top state for business 2023 and we'll reveal it next scott, any final hints >> we're out of hints, melissa we can't milk this any longer, except to say that america's top state for business will be reveal after a break when "squawk box" continues reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. there are currently more than 750,000 unfilled cybersecurity jobs in the u.s. the google cybersecurity certificate was made to fill that gap and help grow the workforce that's keeping us all safe. conventional thinking delivers conventional results. at allspring, we break away with purpose. harnessing data-driven insights and boundless curiosity. we dissect the market from every angle.

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time is finally here we're about to reveal america's top state for business in 2023 our scott cohn does this study over year. he joins us from the top state for the year he put on a tie. put on a tie, a necktie and a jacket and he's here to end the suspense all right, scott >> once and for all. once and for all, joe. we put the states through their paces -- once and for all for 2023 we put their states through their paces. 86 metrics in ten categories of competitiveness. to tell you who america's top state for business is this year, we figured we would turn to a couple of local legends.

>> hi, i'm roy williams. >> and i'm mike krzyzewski we're the best state in business and the best state in college business what more could you ask for. >> now, just don't ask us which team is best >> definitely not. congratulations to the state of north carolina for being cnbc's top state for business in 2023 >> and we are live at the historic biltmore estate in ashville our thanks to the legendary former men's basketball coaches of unc and duke for helping us to show that north carolina is america's top state for business the biltmore estate, that house you're looking at is an amazing, amazing piece of architecture, with 250 rooms, 35 bedrooms, and 45 bathrooms how about that it's nice and cozy let's see how north carolina stayed the winner and still

champion our top state's journey crisscrossing america takes us back to a familiar place north carolina, the tarheel state, on top for a second year in a row, topping last year's state with 1628 out of 2500 points north carolina wins with a not-so-secret weapon >> our talented, educated workers are the foundation of our economic success >> america's top workforce, educated workers are flocking here and state worker training program are among the most effective in the country >> the third best, economy solid growth, stable state finances, a healthy housing market but there are also trouble spots. the political harmony that's helped make north carolina so competitive is fading, flexing their new super majority in raleigh, republicans passed a 12-week abortion ban, now in effect that hurts the state's already

low score for life, health and inclusion. the next backgttleground, the schools in north carolina's high-rated education system. governor roy cooper declaring a state of emergency after democrat-turned-republican tricia cotham offered up vouchers for now, no other state stands stronger a land of innovation and opportunity. north carolina, america's top state for business, 2023 >> where were we yesterday, we were in hendersonville at canoega retreat center, which comes from a cherokee word, which means the gathering place for all the people it truly is. we appreciate the hospitality from the folks there now, about those hints there's the rub. you folks are all more

diabolical than me because you were talking about vick's svapo rub. beat the rush, america's first gold rush was not in california. it began nearly 50 years ago in emba cabarrus county, north carolina. old school, chapel hill traces its roots to the state constitution in 1795, the first public constitution in the u.s. to open its doors, graduating its first class in 1798. the cape hatteras lighthouse is the tallest in the u.s. at 198 feet and the big houses where we are. the biltmore in asheville, north carolina roy cooper is the 75th governor of the state of north carolina it's good to be back with you again. and it's good to have you here, because what's going on in this state epitomizes so much of what's going on in economic development and state

competitive, starting with the workforce, which you did very well at. number one workforce the comparisons get tougher, though how do you keep that going >> we're glad to be here gagain, those were great clues those two legendary basketball koe coaches will be the first to tell you, in order to win that, you have to have the top workforce. north carolina has the most well-educated, dedicated, and diverse workforce in the k country. we have the largest manufacturing workforce in the country. we invest in our people. we know that they are the foundation of our success. and we bolster that by a dynamic community college system i think the best in the country. the best array of public and private universities in the country, including more four-year hbcus than any other state in the country you top that out by commerce department that understands that talent is important. we have a first in talent plan that's helping to adapt all of

this training to the new businesses that we're bringing in to north carolina, like clean energy and technology and biotechnology and aerospace. >> and your training programs, by our data, do very well. one of the other things that has gotten a lot tougher for you, and we were here last year we were in wrightsville beach. we talked about this sort of truce that seems to be going on between you and the republicans who control the general assembly i don't know if there ever really was a truce they now have a super majority, they are overriding your vetoes, particularly on abortion you talked about you as sort of standing between them and culture war issues what happens now is this state, in your view, not going to be as competitive because of these things going on >> this is a national phenomenon and this is part of the national republican playbook. it's wrong when you attack people for who they are. it's wrong when you marginalize people

but it's bad for business. and in north carolina, we have been able to hold the culture wars at bay, but because they do have a one-seat super majority in both chambers now, we've begun that process of getting into the culture wars. north carolina will continue to have a fighter in me you have a lot of businesses in north carolina that are fighting this as well we're not here to fight mickey mouse. we're here to fight for jobs in north carolina >> so, there's now a 12-week abortion ban in effect, as of the first of this month, you talked about last year how there was the business angle to it and a lot of governors in states that guarantee abortion rights will say that. nobody seems to have left the state as a result. i know it's early yet, but this has been going on for a while. is it a selling point or something that is going to make

this state less competitive? should we plan on being somewhere else next year >> i think the damage is more long-term in the culture wars pip p i mean, you still see people going to florida and texas, but you begin to see an erosion over time north carolina was number one in sight selection magazine site sleelectors will tell you that these things matter when it comes time for businesses to make tough decisions in north carolina, our abortion restrictions are not as severe as states to the south and to the west of us they're still wrong. i'm going to continue to use my bully pulpit to let the nation and the world know that north carolina is inclusive, that we value our diversity. i'm going to do everything i can from an executive perspective to make sure that women have access to reproductive care look, this is an issue where women's lives are in danger. it's beyond business it's an important issue that we need to battle right now

but i do believe that you're going to see a long-term problem, because you're limiting your workforce i mean, you're telling the country that we don't want certain people and that's bad for business. i believe in north carolina, we're going to be able to come around we have not gone as far as a lot of the other states. right now, we're in the middle of a session and a budget process that's going to be really important here. >> i mean, have you heard from companies that have actually thought about leigh as a result of all of this or is it something you're worried about? >> north carolina went through this with the bathroom bill back in 2016. don't you think you're seeing businesses leave a state, even like florida and texas, where there have been oppressive culture war legislation passed i do believe that it matters in development of new businesses. the kinds of innovative businesses that north carolina wants to attract and that's why i think it's critical for us to battle these

issues and to stand up for what's right that's what i'm doing. and i think the next elections will be very important because the states that are diverse and inclusive and tell the world that this matters, they're going to do better in business i think that's helped us become the number one state in business for the last two years along with our great workforce and quality of life. >> we rank the state number seven for education. you've now declared a state of emergency in the schools first of all, what does that mean and second of all, is that going to be a long-term competitiveness issue, that the schools aren't going to be as good as they've been up until now. >> we've worked with the legislature in making real investments in community colleges and universities. and i think we're in lockstep on most of those issues but north carolina has for generations and certainly for the past few decades, recognized that long-term, a great workforce depends on early childhood education, quality

child care, and good k-12 public schools. right now, you're seeing republicans begin the process of short changing the public schools, putting more money in accountable private school vouchers, not putting enough in early childhood education and child care you top that off with the potential for legislation, which hasn't passed yet, that put culture wars in our classroom. i think all of those things come together to say, look, we're in a state of emergency here. if we take the steps that we feed to take, north carolina can continue on its success in education and quality workforce. if we don't, we're going to have some problems in the future. legislators are hearing from their school superintendents, from businesses, we're now in the middle of a budget fight i hope that this state of emergency has made people tell their legislators how much public education means

and look, i'm still working with these guys we just -- since you and i sat here last, we expanded medicaid in north carolina to get 600,000 more than north carolinians insured with health insurance. we've all agreed to go after clean energy companies in north carolina and we agreed on carbon emission reductions north carolina to get to carbon zero, which doesn't happen in other states we're working with them, but we know right now during this legislative session and in the next year or so, decisions that are being made here are going to effect our economic success in the future >> no state has ever done a three three-peat, and it sounds like what you're saying is that's kind of on the line here with all of these issues that we've been talking about, this state's competitiveness, which you've built up over time, the whole state has, over time, is it at risk >> well, there's nothing i want more than for me to be able to tell you where we're going to be sitting next year.

and i'm going to do everything in my power to continue doing what we do well. i'm concerned not only for north carolina, but the entire country. north carolina is not unique to this situation we're seeing this kind of culture war culture war introduced throughout the country. especially states in the southeast. so i think it is a warning signal to our legislature, to our businesses in north carolina, and when you just think about it, when you want a diverse workforce that's inclusive and when people are thinking about where they want to live, i think access to reproductive freedom, making sure that you're not going to be discriminated against, because you're lgbtq+, those issues matter, and you don't want to limit your workforce, and these companies are going to hear it from people. i think north carolina itself,

our people, we are welcoming we are diverse we are inclusive legislature with the introduction of these bills aren't reflecting who north carolina is. i'm going to keep telling the country and the world who we really are in our state. >> we'll see how that goes governor roy cooper, congratulations to you, the people of north carolina, and the general assembly, only the second time since we've been doing that a state has won back-to-back you can now see where your state ranks at topstates@cnbc.com. lots more coverage throughout the day. >> three-peat, that's a possi possibility. >> north carolina and south carolina -- the carolinas, i think, is a great spot can you answer one question, scott. why would you need ten houses that big i think it was because there were no yachts back then or

something? i don't understand i guess you couldn't get a boeing business jet. i don't understand what's -- >> isn't that an amazing -- look at that. it's just beautiful. i don't know i don't know >> do you have 34 couples come over to hang out in the bedrooms or something i just -- i'm just trying to figure out what you possibly could need that's just opulence and sort of, look at what i have, isn't it and that's what yachts are for nowa nowadays >> i imagine vanderbilt probably had yachts, too. >> a couple of choppers? >> great job, scott. having coach k., that was pretty neat to have both of those gentlemen on and all they've got to do is put a little 2023 on that sign, on the highway. that says north carolina that's all they've got to do just add to it

>> thank you, scott cohn >> thank you >> coming up, the pga tour goes under the microscope today in washington we'll speak with wisconsin senator ron johnson, head of a key hearing that he will help lead plus, a corporate warning sign that's flashing at least in part because of consistent fed tightening and a reminder, as we head to break, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime. we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now, triple-digit gains. now indicated up 105 this morning. nasdaq also chipping in. maybe in anticipation of tomorrow's number. we don't know. but maybe it will be -- it could be a friendly number, could be a really nasty number. >> if tom lee is right coming up, wisconsin republican senator ron johnson joins us to talk about the pga tour liv golf merger senators from both sides of the aisle will questiopgn a officials today in d.c stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

is anyone ever going to tell the truth... about what's happening here. 3... -are we saying there's a chance... 2... -we destroy the world? 1...

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. the futures right now, we just looked at them before we went to break. up 129 points. actually, they've added to the gains a little on the dow. helping lift the dow, shares of salesforce are higher. the company announced it will raise prices by an average of 9% across this sales company, sales cloud, service cloud, and

marketing cloud, among other offerings. the price hikes will take effect in august. this morning, a senate homeland security subcommittee will dig into the controversial pga tour liv golf merger the permanent subcommittee on investigations says it will look at the deal's implication for the future of golf and saudi arabia's influence on the united states pga tour chief operating officer ron price and board member jimmy dunn are scheduled to testify. the hearing comes days after former at&t ceo randall stevenson resigned from the tour's policy board, citing serious concerns over the deal with liv golf. joining us now, wisconsin senator, ron johnson he's a ranking member of the homeland permanent subcommittee on investigations. senator, it's been a while it's good to have you on with lina khan, and the ftc, i don't know if any mergers go through anymore. i have no idea how you come down

on this proposed deal. and i don't know what would be your concerns or what would be your reasons for thinking that it is a good deal. just talk to me. >> well, good morning, joe it's good to be back again, if it were up to me, we wouldn't be holding the hearing or doing the inquiry right now, there is no deal. this is a delicate negotiation it ought to be conducted in private, but we're going to hold the hearing. so i want to play a constructive role i hope that the hearing offers the pga the opportunity to just describe the challenge it faces in operating and managing professional golf. it's not an easy thing and it's even more difficult when all of a sudden, you have the saudi arabia bringing in their $600 or $700 billion public investment fund, 500 times larger than the net assets of the pga and basically threaten the game of golf. the pga was, you know, really faced with an existential threat and this is what they're trying to do to preserve the game of

golf and the purity of the competition at the highest level. i would like to give the parties space to negotiate a deal, come up with a definitive agreement i think it's a good thing that the lawsuits have now been dismissed with prejudice, which means that they've basically declared a truce from that standpoint that was a financial drain on the pga, that was not sustainable. whereas, let's face it, the pif, they're not in it for financial gain, they're in it for other reasons. >> yeah, i'm just trying to figure out exactly where you're coming from on this. so, you know, there are certain people that think that the stigma of the kashogi incident and 9/11, even jay monahan, that was his response before it wasn't his response. and then we always get into all kinds of finger pointing about, well, you know, we certainly aren't going to stop buying oil from saudi arabia.

we do business with saudi arabia there's work camps in china and the uighur situation, we do a lot of business with china what is your -- do you have an issue with saudi money being used to have even a partnership or ownership of the pga tour do you have a problem with that? >> well, listen, i have the deepest sympathy for the 9/11 families i understand the issue of sports watching i don't think there's -- there's not enough billions of dollars for the saudis to wash away the stain of the brutal khashoggi murder but the reality is, we all buy oil. we drive cars. you know, we are the ones that are filling up the coffers of the public investment fund i would rather have them -- you know, the saudis invest their oil wealth in the u.s. as opposed to china or russia that's just the reality of the world. and again, you know, i'm a lover of the game of golf. i love watching golf i want to see the best golfers

in the world compete against each other, and not be split into different legals and pretty well destroy the competition at the highest level. so i have sympathy for what the pga face is it existential? i do believe that, you know, the individual that negotiated the deal, that initially reached out to the saudis, this is, you know, eddy dunn, who lost 40% of his colleagues in the world trade center terrorist attack. he also has a great respect for exactly what 9/11 families are dealing with, but he also loves the game of golf and realizes that it really did face a real issue here that needed to be addressed. >> it's just -- it's so nuanced, but it's not just this and, i'm glad they made the movie, the godfather ii, because there's a quote that says, we're all part of the same hypocrisy it's just hard to navigate the

current world and always be wearing a white hat and be the good guys, because you have to get your hands dirty in some places, just from the reality of the situation. and that's what we're dealing with am i wrong >> joe, i'll point out, if the saudi's involvement in sports, including in golf, if that helps them modernize or provide more rights to women, wouldn't that be a good thing? you know, i don't think the u.s. needs -- you know, should be just at odds with countries that, you know, we don't agree with everything that they've done again, you can't wash away the stain of the khashoggi assassination. that's just not possible we all know that exists, but at the same time, we use the saudi oil. we can't look for the pga to be the only person to bear the burden of holding the saudis accountable. >> i keep bringing up china and you're not saying anything about

china. you think the khashoggi is somehow head and shoulders worse than what happens in the uighur work camps or the human rights violations in china? >> listen, there's all kinds of atrocities occurring all over the world. and we -- we still have to deal with countries all over the world. that's just the reality -- >> so it's business -- >> then it really is, business, senator. it's business. and if the best thing for the sport of golf and for the -- and that's what i think jimmy dunn was thinking and i think that's what -- when i've seen some of our guests come in and talk about it, they say, look, it was going to be so costly on both sides to fight it that in the end, for players, for the sport, for viewers, for everybody else, this makes sense. and as you said, you know, the saudis do want to, at some point, do more than drill oil, especially given the pressures with climate and everything else so how are they supposed to -- what should they be allowed to

diversify into >> well, first of all, i meant to say jimmy dunn, not eddy dunn again, they've got $600 or $700 billion. do we just want them to burn the money? in general, foreign investment in the u.s. is a good thing. it shows we've got a vibrant economy, a freedom, a protection of private property. we want to encourage people to invest in the u.s. and those are basically our dollars. isn't it better to have those dollars invested here. and as we are accepting those investment dollars, work with the saudi arabia to reform, to modernize, to recognize people's rights, the rights of women. they have a different culture than ours. we can't impose our beliefs, our culture on everybody, but we can still work with people, try to respect them, try to improve their behavior that's just the way the world works. it's not good to be -- it's not good to be at odds with people and constantly at war around the world. >> if liv were, you know,

funded, seeded by china, would this conversation be different would you be making that argument that it's better to have that dollar here in the united states than elsewhere, that there are atrocities and we cannot impose our values on other places that we do business with well, again, i would rather have the free flow of financing across nations i think it stabilizes things i've often said, it's -- it's not a problem that china holds our debt, it's that anybody holds more than 1 trillion o our debt, but the fact that china owns $1stabilizing are you going to try to destroy a company that owes you over $1 trillion these relationships are stabilizing in the world what we don't want to do is make the world less stable. we have to recognize that we can impose our ideas, our ideology on everybody, but we can work with people and try to forge

peaceful relationships with folks, try to cooperate. and that's a better path as opposed to just, you know, being at war and, you know, being at odds with every nation on earth. >> is it -- is this a bipartisan issue or are there -- where would you find people that want to absolutely scuttle this deal? are democrats at the hearing want to say unequivocally no, this can't happen? >> i really don't know speaking to chairman bloom thaten that'll, he knows my feeling, it seems like his interest is in preservation of the game of golf that's certainly my interest and jmy dunn's interest. it sounds that's what the head of pif's interest is as well i would prefer putting the best construction on things, cooperate with people, try to improve relations, try to improve people's behavior. that's just a better approach as opposed to beinge eat odds with everybody.

>> okay, senator we'll be watching. should be some fireworks, i would think. but appreciate your time this morning. thanks >> should be interesting thanks coming up, the story of why it's been a particularly busy year for corporate bankruptcies and who could be next on the chopping block plus, how important is amazon prime day for retailers' bottom lines? we'll talk about that as sales get into full swing. and you can always watch or listen to us using the cnbc app. stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back ♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. ♪ "the pursuit of gold" by alex ball ♪

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in light of more potential interest rate, u.s. companies are finding it even more difficult to repay debt. that's leading to a surge in bankruptcies >> well, we've got uncertain economic conditions that you talked about, heavy debt loads, and that's contributed to the highest level of bankruptcies in 13 years in the first half of this year, 340 u.s. firms filed for bankruptcy, with the majority in consumer discretionary, health care, and industrials. serta, simmons bedding, bed bath & beyond, those are the names topping the list with liabilities of over $1 billion that have filed for bankruptcy this year. and yet the higher interest rates haven't stopped firms from piling on more debt. according to the federal reserve, corporate debt topped $12.7 trillion in q1 of this year, up almost 30% from q12019. all while many are finding it

more difficult to repay that debt the median interest coverage ratio fell year over year in q1. and so this ratio is important, because it shows how easily a company can pay interest on its outstanding debt and helps evaluate a company's financial conditions so all you've got to see o it helps evaluate a company's financial conditions all you're going to see on the screen is that the slope is going downwards as of mid last year the current title capital controls which could get worse for banks after the svb collapse doesn't bode well for any firms looking to refinance >> some of these companies are going to need refinancing. the banks can afford to be chooseyer in doing that. >> you can treat it. there are many that track corporate bonds, junk bonds. jmk is up 1% year-to-date but pays a 5.94% dividends xhyg, above 6%

facility's investment grade corporate bond fund up minimally over the last year but pays 3.5% secondly, corporate defaults are viewed as a sign of the economy and financial system's help. a rising rate could impact investor sentiment, stocks and even lenders behaviors. >> are there sectors that seem to be most vulnerable to bankruptcies >> moody's put out a paper that the retail sector can get hit hard they named the hikal's company with the high levels of debt another issue, too, is the drop -- i'm switching gears, clo, collateralized loan obligations. they take bundles of weaker corporate, put them together and helps companies refinance. there's all these signs, these warning signs that maybe they'll be some choppy water going

forward. >> kristina, thanks. coming up, we'll look into amazon stock as prime day gets into full swing. >> have you gone on to amazon.com on the interweb >> the eninterweb are you making fun of me. >> gene munster will join us stay with us "squawk box" will be right back. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions.

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in the ford f-150. now we're cruising. scan the qr code to see how ford can help you discover it's day one of amazon's prime day sale our next guest says amazon is becoming an enterprise services company. gene munster of deep water asset management it's more fun to talk about deals on air fryers. >> -- melissa, keep in mind three-quarters of amazon's total revenue has largely been forgotten based on the ups and downs with aws and the advertising business the logistics piece is an important factor to this business

they've talked about more recently in the interview last week, he said amazon's last mile is bigger than united postal service. that's extraordinary what we've seen from the company is them actually embracing some of the retail opportunity around infrastructure so they now have sellers by prime. they have prime hub. these are essentially new tools that advertisers -- that sellers can use and leverage amazon's logistics and amazon can make higher profits from that let's put the retail business in perspective. i mentioned three-quarters of revenue. it hasn't had a sustainable profit for the last decade as they start to charge more for some of these logistics tools, i think you can see an opportunity for that to actually expand, the profit to expand and this to be a 5% eebt damar engine business.

>> it's precisely what's going on, the reason is that amazon has been majority, two-thirds of what their sellers have been embracing has been amazon actual sales. as they start to branch out and work with third party sellers, i think this is a massive opportunity. the logistics piece is something they haven't gotten much credit for from investors that's going to play a big role in terms of how investors do this business. jesse said last week 85% of the business -- of retail is still off-line that's a big opportunity for amazon >> surprised the number is that high i'm curious, gene, as u.s. reaches saturation in terms of prime membership, how are you thinking amazon can go deeper into try to develop recurring

revenues aside from the loss jis ticks. could there be other prime memberships offered for other amazon services? >> well, they have that with amazon hub right now this is allowing traditional retailers, so brick and mortar to get delivered by prime. this is the last mile, these trucks the flower shop, the items you don't want to drive and pick up, you'll be able to get that from some of the amazon delivery services again, this is something that's in a pilot stage right now, melissa. as they start to roll that out, it is a very different approach to retail. i think, again, it's an important part of understanding amazon i'm glad it's getting illuminated here with prime days, the retail business. the takeaway is pretty straightforward. retail business is a big opportunity for amazon investors and specifically around logistics outside of some of the excitement that we see in some of these deals >> i want them to do prime

grocery for whole foods and amazon fresh that's my hope best deals, gene joe wants to know if he can get an apple charger >> a couple of quick fun facts for all of us on prime day, the growth on prime day is about 4x normal than a typical amazon day. they'll do about 7% to 8% of the quarter's retail business over the next two days. separately, if you're curious, the top ten deals, five of those top ten deals are apple products >> wow gene, great to see you thank you. gene munster >> i need a new phone. >> i do, too. >> my bat ray is 78% >> my battery is severely degraded >> you can look at battery health. >> that's what it says. >> 78% north carolina, congratulations to north

carolina if i beg you sincerely, will you come back tomorrow >> nope. >> will you come back thursday >> no, i'm going to come back tomorrow. >> oh, you will be i don't need to beg. >> it's just fun seeing it. >> you let me do that. >> yes, on tv. >> please come back. she'll be here so will i. the market looks like it might be up, at least at the open. "squawk on the street" is up right now. ♪ ♪ >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with james cramer and david faber. the new york stock exchange coming off a deep finish, now whispers about a soft cpi tomorrow futures are solid. ten-year back below four our roadmap amid the turbulence. amazon kicking off prime day what's at stake for the company and what does the street say about the stock an