carolina if i beg you sincerely, will you come back tomorrow >> nope. >> will you come back thursday >> no, i'm going to come back tomorrow. >> oh, you will be i don't need to beg. >> it's just fun seeing it. >> you let me do that. >> yes, on tv. >> please come back. she'll be here so will i. the market looks like it might be up, at least at the open. "squawk on the street" is up right now. ♪ ♪ >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with james cramer and david faber. the new york stock exchange coming off a deep finish, now whispers about a soft cpi tomorrow futures are solid. ten-year back below four our roadmap amid the turbulence. amazon kicking off prime day what's at stake for the company and what does the street say about the stock and the senate

holding a hearing on the pga liv golf merger a day after at&t stephenson resigned from the pga tour board over that deal. let's begin with big tech. a day after the nasdaq said it would rebalance to address the overconcentration, wells has names that might benefit from some of this starbucks among them >> i look at that. i actually like this because, if you're going to take this thing down to 55%, there are going to be some winners -- it was up three yesterday. a lot of people thought it was up three because of positive news about the possibility of still one more chinese -- i don't know, infrastructure play. i also know that -- it was like everyone was laying in wait for amazon they should not have -- now we have prime i tell you what, david you know what's the matter with prime? >> tell me >> you go to prime

it's like ai i swear they huddle with jensen. everything i've been talking about or talking about, there it is, for half of what i thought the notes about amazon, how good things are going all right, the way to play this rebalancing is to go buy amazon. did you look >> did i look at what? >> at prime day. >> no. >> some of the offers. >> i haven't looked. i don't need more stuff. i'm already at that point now where it's like -- >> you got enough. >> i've got enough it's enough. i want to cut back >> you don't buy coffee or anything on amazon >> i buy coffee -- actually i don't buy the coffee, but i don't buy it on amazon, no. >> let's just go back to this. i wasn't talking about coffee. >> there's a big thesis that's bubbling up. we have the decline on amazon web services, down, down, down the issue was 10%, where we go

from 35 to 10. we're getting the stories where we say it hit eight and it's back to ten. >> i would also point out interesting today in the journal sites, amazon designs its own chips, its own ai chips which apparently are not just helping to fuel aws and the computations its clients may want, but also be being sold to third parties is what they indicated in that story. >> look, if you're doing that, you're up against 500, it goes to 550, key nvidia >> you're talking about the key target, they go to 550 and goldman to 495 >> one of the things about nvidia is you'll get some article about a blog, and i don't want to be too deviated here it's one of the stocks that obviously has to be cut back there's a blog that says right now nvidia has a chip that goes 45,000 times faster than any

chip when it comes to weather. it can pinpoint which day is going to be the warmest day ever in central west africa it's 45,000 -- how about 38,000 times, 22,000 times might be enough you end up with this company, david, where nvidia, it's 45,000 times everything 45,000 times faster than anything i. always burns cooler, by the way that's another thing it doesn't burn hot because jensen doesn't like hot-burning chips. >> burn would seem to imply heat i'm not sure what you're talking about. by the way, i thought there is more heat generated in these latest and newest iterations on these data centers. >> on a percentage basis, j genjensen huang won't allow that when you try to reduce their

input, they just keep coming back they don't, they can't be stopped because they're such great companies. >> that may be true, but nvidia does have business in china that's not insignificant >> cressy said there is restrictions >> over time there will be competitors. your other favorite, amd, they're trying. >> they're not ready. >> there are big companies designing their own chips such as amazon or tesla they're not competing, per se. >> i'm just talking about the lead -- >> they have an incredible lead. is that not reflected in the stock price? >> not if you're key 500 goes to 550. you're goldman, no the answer is -- you can see let's go buy starbucks maybe we should get mondelez david, i've got to tell you.

tate's cookies -- i'm not hearing anything about blocking them in beijing, shanghai. >> bate's cookies keep shrinking, too >> you've been all over the shrinknation story >> i've had tate's in iceland. i swear to god, you need a microscope >> which aren't even sold this time of year. >> if you want to buy booking holdings -- >> what does booking holdings have to do with this >> on this list that wells have of potential upsizers in the rebound. >> before the show started you were taking a phone call i was very close to what we were talking about. >> focused on reporting, trying to figure things out for the next block of our show >> as my kids would say, dad, if you're in the here and now >> when you get the phone call,

you take the phone call. >> ever hear jack cornfield? he lets you listen to books on tape, focusinged on the here and now. you can go have your tate's cookies and your oreos and your tobl toblerone! >> black and white, at the end of the day -- >> i'm a new yorker. >> either a good big one or a good mini one. the best cookie. >> the rebound is a faux analysis >> ten-year real rate 1.72 that's pretty hard equity market valuation, 18 times. should equity risk premiums be higher >> yeah. >> what are you now, larry summers? >> you don't like it when i'm

intellectual with you about the market >> you want that i like ford but i saw an ad from bronco it was sold out. >> jim has economists and yield curve watchers in his crosshairs lately >> carl, you're actually translating him for me >> usually i'm translating him for everybody else. >> summers' data has kept you out of amazon, out of apple. you've missed alphabet >> but that's what -- i bring it up because that is a question some people have right now in the marketplace. >> the vixx is incredibly low. speculative assets >> -- >> i'm saying one of the rallies we've had in the magnificent seven, coburn was up robert vaughn was up. >> yule brenner's birthday today.

>> by the way, his ads about how he was dead -- when you see this ad, i'll be dead by now. most powerful ad i've ever seen. >> i kau him in king and i, by the way. >> do you think things are calmer than they should be as evidenced by the vixx, for example? >> david, if you want to see the financials get crushed, that's what's happening >> it doesn't fit. ♪ ♪ >> an older suit. >> it's draped on you. >> i used to be 167. i pulled it out of the closet and there it was >> yesterday you wanted to like my jacket on fire. >> yeah. it was a little jim morrison-like. >> ready to call the burn yet? >> light him on fire will you put the phone down for a second

i'm trying to talk to you. >> i'm sorry. >> i'm saying if you look at the financials, they've crushed the pe you need a microscope powered by nvidia to see those, 45,000 times. if you want retail, go buy nordstrom and macy's you look at the way the main ral stocks have just collapsed david, health care is under attack from our u.s. government. i used to get service at nordstrom. now it's like service at walgreens. can anybody help me? i need the plastic thing open, i want that nice suit. people are stealing suits! let me steal that 38 regular. >> always fence it online. >> exactly it's organized crime >> you need some shrinkage. >> enough with the george cos stanza the oil stocks crush. >> your point is they traded

those numbers for a reason and you probably don't want to own them because there's no growth >> i'm just saying there's two markets. there's been two markets forever. there's markets where you make money and don't make money i prefer the former. i think the former have really much more to say david, if you want to focus -- if david wants to focus on rite-aid, i'm all oifrt. david, i want you to look at rite-aid. >> as rates continue to stay high, the terminal rate keeps moving higher, you can get 5% in your 401(k) right now. >> they've been incredibly strong. >> we did get mannheim yesterday, used cars second biggest year on year decline, down 10.3 bigger than we saw during the financial crisis goldman only looking at .22 month-on-month >> that is very bullish. we still don't have the elixir

which is the wanls and then we've got to get -- lennar is the most important stock of this market. >> len march is the key to the market why? >> you can't stop the home builders. >> piper on zillow today. >> people are checking their houses again if toll brothers, every house is over a million bucks, you should check your house i think we're back to house poor >> they mentioned adding more premier agents i think they go 42 to 62. >> the return on investment is very good. look at toll million dollar house, bidding wars, mostly cash. doug yearly, fantastic. >> what turns the home builders? need more inventory. >> 1.6, got to build 2 million if you're talking to doug yearly, he'll tell you we build as many as people need >> it's a funny world in which

the home builders continue to go higher and mortgage rates are over 7%. >> that's what i'm saying. the market is counterintuitive which is why your larry sum merps analysis leaves me cold. >> i don't know why you brought larry into it. i don't know how you knew i was talking to him this morning. you just pick that up? >> you're always negative. >> i'm not always negative i supported him when he was in trouble. >> my risk premium question. you got it right away. >> whispers out there. david says it out there. >> david took that class you know how much is inside the yield curve? >> no. >> holy cow. it's a page turner >> i'm still working on jack cornfield. >> dad, shut up. >> i wonder what happens to wikipedia searches while we're on the air, trying to keep up with your references. >> my daughter says, dad, it's

time for jack cornfield. no talking he's talking about buddhism and stuff. i'm like, wow. >> did it keep you from talking, listening to jack cornfield? >> i was silenced by jack cornfield. >> cue the jack cornfield. >> take a look at the premarket. bunch of calls today on the banks, 3m, hp, amazon, jetblue when we return you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪

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pga tour is set to defend the merger it's planning with liv golf in a senate hearing today. in an op-ed, the tour's ceo ron price previewed his testimony, also admitted regret in how the organization rolled out the announcement of the deal of course we were a key part of that, saying much of the initial reaction has been negative yes, clearly negative. today will be no exception most likely tough questioning for jimmy dunn as well, a board member who was instrumental in negotiating that deal between pga tour and liv golf ed hurl hee part of that other duo, and jay monahan has well. he's been on leave, comes back july 17th. he misses today's hearings there could be fireworks

ge guys, it's not a merger that has any public equity consequences, but one that is being closely watched. there is the framework for the agreement, but there is no definitive agreement we have had both sides drop their litigation but the key will be the next, i'm told, really perhaps the next couple weeks in terms of trying to get the players on board in a significant way to support this deal, and there are plenty i think who wonder whether they really can get to that place that gets them to the definitive agreement signed. it's not about the numbers, i'm told, as much as it's really about getting all those players on board many of whom are not happy, continue to not be happy, in part with the way the announcement was handled and the way they were informed even beyond that, sort of questions in terms of liv golf and obviously the pif of saudi

arabia being on the board of the pga tour when the deal is done, having the right of first refusal so they can continue to escalate ownership there are a lot of things that some would say brings it to a fairly low probability they get to a definitive agreement, not to mention potential opposition of certain members of the government you do have an anti-trust review possible here. it wouldn't seem that would be that big an issue. when the government wants something hard, sometimes the doj listens and can delay, delay, delay, jim, as you well know. >> is the sec going to be on board? >> she's against two people being in the same room. >> you're talking about lina kahn. >> i'm waiting for activision blizzard to come down. microsoft versus ftc

i think, jim, probably what i've been hearing tomorrow after the close or thursday. maybe not today. but that's going to be a big one. as for antitrust in this deal, we'll have to wait and see but there was that litigation, why was it so crucial that they get it dropped carl, again, the question will be again, if this, in fact, fails, is there other money available to the pga tour? would endeavor, for instance, try to make a significant investment of some kind? are there other ways they can strengthen to do some of the things that jay monahan talked about they want to do in terms of developing the sport? >> certainly, the appetite for live events is there i don't know if you've seen some of the promotion netflix is doing about the new series on the modern-day quarterback it's endless. >> endless i'll take anything that's sports. >> sports is what holds the bundle together to the extent it's being held together although, did you seecharter

now, willing to offer a non-sports bundle of programming to try to cut the costs significantly. sports is key. >> i don't think we talk nearly enough about how much we hear about international players now, and global football, as we call it i don't think people realize that the amount of interest in any woman's sport on tv. women's golf, we're all riveted this weekend, women's golf it's fantastic it's at a level you never dream. and women's world cup. give it to me. it's too exciting. so, yeah, versus some networks have some old shows i've watched many times and i'm done watching. >> you've seen them enough >> yes, for $3 billion i've seen them. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," count down to the opening well as we work our towards cpi tomorrow morning take one more look at the premarket. adding a touch or more onto

stdas ins. back in a minute

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what are you working on? a bomb. it's happening, isn't it? this is the most important thing to every happen in the history of the world! take a look at premarket gainers. salesforce upping .4%. that's going to be a high as they raise list prices 9% beginning in august take a look at the rest of them. 3m behind an upgrade there don't forget, opening bell in awe if minutes you can catch us any time, anywhere look at us and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast

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we get started with trading at the new york stock exchange in 29.5 minutes. 3m we've been spending time on and a lot of research as well. >> i always come in positive on

someone who has an underperform and upgrades to a hold with some positives including a settlement for some of the forever chemicals in water supply. health care spin is going to be very indiana expensive maybe there's movement in this combat arms hearing litigation i like this call i don't necessarily like 3m as a stock because there's so many moving parts to not short anymore feels like the right call. >> okay. >> so maybe it's done -- at least the risk of it going down a lot more has abated a bit. >> i will tell you, apropos, there was an article about the lead line wires. >> a series of lead being all over the place. >> right now plaintiffs lawyers all over the place are saying 3m is kind of done. i'm going to find where there is

forever lead chemicals and i'm going to sue verizon and at&t. that's going to be your next focus. we'll talk about that forever. those articles generate -- >> they do there always does seem to be, jim, another -- something else it's weed killers, it's talk, obviously asbestos way back then there are people who suffer as a result of these things. >> remember when lead paint, when we first saw in the se settlements of the paint companies. i think there are plaintiffs lawyers saying did you see the bonanza that's going to be verizon and at&t right now, they're like, lead! that's going to be the next. believe me, those who think they're going to escape from that, no those articles just attract the plaintiffs lawyers watch out at&t and verizon [ cheers and applause >> let's get the opening bell on

the cnbc realtime exchange mexican real estate developer ves sta. at the nasdaq fresh 2 group, a business to business food e-commerce platform. we mentioned amazon already. i mentioned this morning, the only trillion dollar company that's underperformed the s&p for the past five years. >> -- has been negative for a long time. [ chanting ]. >> i thought you'd talk about the disney -- david, you might want to hear this. three years from now, disney will be taken over >> i saw that note i think that's ridiculous.

>> i think we're going to talk to it later this morning. >> a lot of respect for laura. i don't know what she's thinking there. let's start off with the antitrust. who? apple? the largest single the deal has been a $3 billion acquisition. >> -- >> that would be doj i find it hard to imagine. >> i tell you in terms of interesting things, i don't know if you guys have followed draftkings which contessa brewer has done an amazing job on this morning, four more nfl players suspended for gambling i've got to tell you, draftkings, this is endemic. these are people who have worked all their lives and have lost their careers because they can't stop gambling. draftkings always has the usual nomenclature about how you can't

gamble look at that that is a winner jason robbins, game, set, match, gambling that's part and parcel with watching live sports i just think the players should do less gambling while they're playing. >> they know they're not supposed to, correct yet they're still doing it, or some are. >> they can't resist because it's so easy to place bets maybe they're doing the parlays, losing a fortune on parlays. just so you know -- >> i don't know the nfl rule actually is it you're not allowed to gamble at all on any sport or is it just -- no gambling whatsoever. >> you're not supposed to gamble it's possible to drop a ball look, i think this is -- it's just insane that they do it. it's endemic and it's a great

stock. i think draftkings has triumphed over many people it has the best -- there are states you can't use it. you don't know how great the app is you can go crazy with the damn thing. you can have a 14 parlay and lose even more money thon a three team you can do, for fantasy, if disney had any money and was not being bought by, i don't know -- they have the possibility of putting a camera, using john's company, they could play it -- a skill player, on every skill player and simply watch your team because the amazing thing about fantasy and draftkings, the fourth quarter means more than any other game even if it's a blowout. that's why nfl football is the greatest sport because we don't care who wins.

we just cares who gets the touchdowns in the fourth quarter. i think that's one of the reason gambling is so compelling. these players come out and looking for something to do. david, i'm about to go in, but i like the chiefs here with one quarter left >> that's interesting. maybe the bigger story on media is a, how the box office has stumbled in the last few weeks and also, i don't know if you noticed hollywood reporter mentioned sag-aftra is consulting with pr firms ostensibly about what to do in the event of a call for a strike >> wow do we think those disney bombs were really chapek i don't think chapek had as much to do with those bombs -- >> referring to the last pixar movie? >> the last disney movies were

not well received. >> i saw the mission impossible movie last night. >> you did go. >> i did go. that's why i'm tired they didn't get started until late. >> 2 1/2 hours >> tom was there, though i saw him. it was far away. it's amazing he runs. i'll pay anything to go see tom cruise run at 60 years old. >> i want to give a heads-up you don't come on and say, wow, i'm really tired today you don't do that. >> you don't >> that's not part of the handbook >> i was up late with tom cruise >> i didn't actually -- tom and i didn't really party together nobody works harder. by the way, i don't know if you guys know this he does his own stunts. >> i had a business dinner until 11:00 last night. >> did you really?

this went way later than that. >> david, i don't necessary get as tired as you do. >> i need more than four hours of sleep. >> i got up at 3:30 and i got my call tomorrow at 12:00 you know what, david -- >> we're aware. >> i'm not tired i'm not tired. i'm ready to talk about coinbase and the idea that we're going to have legislation and the crypto might be out of the woods and we'll all be talking crypto. it's out of the woods because the former cftc head came on "mad money" and basically put the challenge to the sec and said it's time we come up with an agreement we're following behind europe. these guys are playing for time. it's time to legislate we watch coinbase. i think coinbase is going higher because of that. >> another 20, 40 bucks to get at a 52-week high.

>> they agree it's time to legislate. that's right in coinbase's wheelhouse. >> i want to get you on the banks, specifically what jefferies have done, morgan stanley cutting zion -- >> i think we're getting back in the world that reminds us of 1932 there's like jpmorgan and there's nobody else. citi was no good remember that period >> i really don't remember that period i know you do. >> -- the only bank that made it out. >> you are talking about the great depression i'm not sure it's a great analogy to be making >> why not >> we're not in a great depression not losing big banks except for one. >> -- >> i'm just saying >> i'm saying when you go back to '32, you had to go buy the

stock of jpmorgan and all the rest were falling apart. i do feel a lot of people feel if you look at other banks, there's something wrong with that the price series multiple keeps shrinking, except for wells which has made a big of a comeback i've got to tell you, i cannot believe how poorly their stock is doing it's a very inexpensive stock. we can talk about goldman until the cows come home nobody wants to touch goldman. nobody. >> bank of america suffered the most because of concerns about how the long dated assets on its balance sheet. they loaded up in a way that jpmorgan did not in terms of -- they were much closer in terms of matching duration -- >> say again >> citi. >> citi you talked about how it's traded below book for a long time. >> nobody talked about how there's a disparity in book

value [ bell ]. >> is this the gong show >> how thabt chart from katy huberty. risk appetite appears to be on the rise. >> we're so far ahead of last year when it comes to ipas, it's incredible. >> they say if the cycle is anything like 2000 you would expect an inflection in the ipos. >> i think we're almost there. i think people don't recognize the cava deal was an important, important deal we've had the smaller korean barbecue deal. david, it's back it's happening the i pfpo index is twice the performance of the s&p i think we have to watch this. i don't want you to sell the banks stocks at the bottom given the fact the ipo market has come

alive and m anda might be alive if you're right about what happens with activision blizzard. >> you mean microsoft ftc. >> yeah. >> i'm not going to prejudge i think the ftc had a very hard case to make based on at least the law. >> but the judge i don't know. >> that's always a key part -- very key part is the wildcard as a judge. if, in fact, there is no injunction issue to stop that deal, it will be a real loss for the ftc. then the question is -- remember, a lot of what the ftc is doing -- most deals, they don't even go through without a serious review it's a very small percentage of all the deals the ftc or the doj see. what they're trying to do -- many would argue, they may not agree -- chill the marketm when you think about the

possibility of having to go to court, the long time to get the review done, the likelihood of the second request which would have the effect of extending that review period and say i'm not going to bother. that's what they've tried to do, jim. if you get taken to court, you continue to lose the question will be how many companies will be -- >> let's play this out i know a dozen tech companies that should merge tomorrow, 30 banks stocks that could merge. >> okay. >> in the entertainment world there's so many more companies than we need nobody is talking to anybody. >> you know, i think they do talk, but i think antitrust comes up as probably the number one issue oftentimes in terms of a getting issue. listen, let's not forget in a period like this, price is always important it's hard to know, sort of to negotiate price in a period

where we've had over a couple years a lot of volatility. >> many oil companies are speaking, but no deals the only deal i saw was an od -- the lmg plant sold to warren buffett. it made me feel that dominion -- something is very wrong at dominion they gave away -- that's a very important, very important piece of piece that lmg terminal especially now that manson is going to have his way. dominion was one of my absolute favorite utilities i can't tell you, at a price they gave away their percentage. >> what was it 3.1 bill >> those things cost a fortune to build i think they gave that -- there you go look at that that's not a good chart. that's got the rite-aid feel

that's the benchmark that the regulators blocked a deal on, and now look what's happened. >> well, yeah. okay >> i'm saying you can block deals, and the one that you blocked may lead to catastrophe. >> true, but the doj or ftc would say these behavioral remedies as well, the likes of safe way, albertson's didn't work you end up with this competitor that doesn't have the wherewithal to sustain itself and actually sells itself back to the company it was spun off from. >> that was the biggest black mark i thoi jonathan kanter felt that was a great travesty >> hence kroger/albertson's. >> the ceo of kroger assured me

it's going to work i've assured him it's not going to work. i'm not the ceo of kroger. i don't know if you know that. >> next life, jim. >> you never know. he always plays ceo, comes up with various things they should be doing. >> i know. i've been chilled by lina kahn and the incredible article -- >> she quashed your dreams about going into business development. >> i know when you read lennon's "what is to be done," a short book, only 128 pages so much like lina kahn, i almost checked to see if he plagiarized. >> in the early '80s when reagan and his team came in, but the ftc would argue these large, enormous companies we talk about

all the time, stifle innovation simply by existing you certainly can't allow them to buy more, you probably should be focused on figuring out ways to get them to become smaller so that capital will flow to companies that conceivably will compete against them right now it may not be. that's the argument. >> when rockefeller had 100% of the oil market, i thought they had a lot of good cases to bring. when you're trying to figure out a gaming company and microsoft, honestly -- >> it's tough. a lot of these things are based on prediction, what the market will look like ten months hence. microsoft/activision is about a cloud market that doesn't really exist in a robust way. what will microsoft, when it owns activision and call of duty be willing to do advance its own -- >> -- most kind and thoughtful man in tech, mark zuckerberg,

had a deal for a game -- david, it was like a worked-out game, and she tried to block that. >> she did >> that was a minutia level. >> it was, but at the same time you can go back and look at the acquisition of instagram, the acquisition by alphabet of youtube or even double click at the time not large deals certainly dollarwise and yet had huge ramifications over time. >> by the way, we're going to talk to mark mahaney later who said yesterday threads, the new app, likely to get 8 billion in revenue by '25 >> kahn is not going to knock that off kilter. that's nothing for them. >> i understand. we know that because there were so many mergers in airlines under the obama administration that airlines are one of the things that be devil the fed. >> the doj, and many people believe the last wave should not have been allowed.

>> what happened there >> i don't know. >> let's point finger. >> there were other deals, too live nation/ticketmaster. >> how did they let that go? >> because she has to make 13 million a concert. >> taylor is not happy -- >> taylor swift managed by a guy from merrill lynch. >> her father works there. >> a good manager. what do you think he's buying? i think nvidia. >> i bet he is, jim. i beta lore is in nvidia, too. she doesn't anybody to manage anything she is savvy in so many ways. >> you think she's in unis >> i would hope she has some unis. >> time for her to come clean whether she's buying those illinois munis which you know i don't think pass muster. >> we mentioned mark mahaney, naming uber his number one pick replacing meta as the number one long gap profitability, share

buybacks >> the great cfos of the game, i love nelson. those of us who have worked with nelson, and i know you have, david, know he's just solid. he's a solid citizen people say for a long time he's done a good job. >> i remember the ipo as if it was yesterday. >> i like nelson when he worked -- nelson is a very good guy. people want to do more things. he wants to run his own company. >> when we get more ipos. >> we didn't talk about the new ceo at newell and what he's doing to turn that company around he talks and the jar din deal -- >> a lot of business to get to -- i want to set the alarm for 9:53, give david a couple of

gs, cs. >> can i take a little nap during the break >> it was a long night, hanging out with cruise. >> the entire cast really fun movie. >> the nfl you are allowed toe to gam able on other pro sports but not from the team facility can you imagine the mistake, oh, my god, just so much want to take the phillies in that game. >> you're referring to what you first mentioned -- draftkings, if you're an nfl player, you can bet on other sport -- you can't bet at all from the facility. >> you can't bet at all from the facility you want 9:53 with a snooze? >> yes, please >> while david is resting, let's watch the markets here, opening nicely with every sector in the green. we're on wait for cpi tomorrow

with some relief in bonds, ten-year back below 4 this morning, a shade below right now at 3.99. be right back.

i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

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. time for jim and stop trading. >> pbh laying off 10% of the people that work at tommy hilfiger we're getting a real deviation when it comes to apparel ralph lauren the winner, pbh one of the losers. stay close to this group, that is telling, that and sneakers. this is disappointing. i thought pbh had turned the corner not yet. >> journal has a good piece on how free shipping may have peaked going into this fall season, not as generous. >> no.

i mean, i'll say if you want to buy clothes, costco. >> you've always been a kirkland man. >> that's where you buy clothes. just forget about it done. i once got a zena shirt at costco, fighting with someone else, it was him, me, i got it i'm not going to miss out on an opportunity for a shirt. >> not even if -- it didn't fit you, but you didn't care. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern time quick break here with the dow still up 100 we're back in 2.

good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange stocks going strong again today. there's the dow up 123 points. every sector in the s&p is higher except for information technology and communication services hence the nasdaq under performance that rebalancing perhaps of the nasdaq that mike santoli has been talking about, potentially weighing on big tech

again. microsoft, apple, meta, amazon higher ahead of prime day which is today we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three movers we're watching look at newwell brands. the name at buy, $13 price target, quote, the bulk of the bad news is in the rearview mirror recently talked to the brand new ceo, and he has a new strategy 3m in the green. bank of america upgrades to neutral as they argue there's positive catalysts ahead for that name. stock has been an under performer this year as well. finally keep an eye on big tech trying to rebound after selling off yesterday. we're going to break down evercorp top pick in the space mark mahaney shuffling his top pick guys, it's kind of a march until the cpi report tomorrow. that's the big macro event and story of the week. it doesn't mean we haven't gotten other data. we have gotten fed speak to chew on one comment that was notable to me was mary daly, san francisco fed president, haven't heard

from her in a few weeks, here's what she's saying about the path of rate hikes. >> we're likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that's a sustainable 2% path the important thing about all of this is the word in projections is projections those are things that you suspect could be true, but we have to be data dependent right now. >> higher for longer we had a whole wrath of fed speak and that was the message it was notable because she has been leaned dovish in the past and warned about the economic side of things they're focused on the inflation fight and feel they have more work to do. >> how differently daly is viewing lags than bostic that's where you're seeing real fissures on the committee. >> bostic is more okay, we've done a lot, let's just wait it out and see what happens there are those that say look, we need to signal to the market we need to do more until we get

inflation. that's why core inflation tomorrow is going to be key. we know headline will go down. it's about core. excluding energy that's remained higher and look, there's good signals we got the new york fed inflation expectations number yesterday. the one-year number looked good. 3.8%, which was below the more than 4% the month prior and at the lowest level in two years. that's a good sign it's what fed wants to see, not just the inflation numbers come down but expectation also. >> where are we in terms of what the terminal rate will be? >> two more rate hikes is where the dot plot shows, but the market now thinks that we're going to have one more. >> right. >> here. >> round 550, 575. >> yeah. >> and 6% would be the more -- we're not priced in for that i think the bigger question is how long we're going to stay at that level because it is looking -- the evidence is building it's going to be that way for a while unless we get some sort of cratering economic

data, which we haven't gotten. it's kind of a quiet week, but we do have -- look we have nfib today. small business optimism today. it's at low levels there's still a lot of pessimism about the outlook from small businesses one chart i pulled out of which i always look at, the hiring intentions because it does tend to leap -- there's the index we're at low levels, but it's not a disaster. >> yep. >> the hiring intentions came down and that could be a leading signal that job growth is cooling which we know job growth is cooling and again, it's not at recessionary levels, but we look at the forward leaning indicators and they show -- >> what's that >> percent of firms with position those are open positions right now. those are not hiring intentions. but still shows there are a lot of open positions but they're coming down. as those charts move in the downward direction, we just want to look at it and make sure

there's not, you know, a bigger problem out there. >> what about the bond market? you know, real rates now on the 10-year, 1.7, call it some like that, given that inflation is coming down. what's that saying >> higher for longer that's really where it's been moving we've had a little bit of easing of the pressure on rates today and lately the 10-year note yield is above 4% and the 2-year note yield is below the 5% level and below 4.9% it's been elevated there was a feeling earlier this year after the bank failures those rates would come down because the fed would have to start easing and that's been totally priced out of the market as we stand because the theme from the data and the fed speak is, inflation is still a bigger problem than growth and growth has held up. the other data point we got yesterday was consumer credit which, you know, we're watching in light of all the fed rate hikes and everything like that yes, we're seeing a decline for credit

here is a really good chart. consumer credit and what i look at is the nonrevolving credit, the red line, going negative for the first time in a few years. that's borrowing for tuition, it's borrowing for auto loans, and it's high for most of the rate hike cycle. what this shows us is because of the higher interests interest rates, higher inflation and tightening lending standards from the banks you're seeing a moderation here. we're looking at forward leaning indicators not doomsday but they're moving us in a weaker growth position. >> you look at the 2-year and santelli mentioned this, the inability to crack 506 on a closing basis will lead a lot to say that's pretty firm resistance, double top, whatever you want to call it, so i don't know, it's hard to argue that rates have a ways go meaningfully higher and whether or not they -- how long they stay there is a different discussion. >> two key determinants, get cpi and see how the market absorbs

that tomorrow and then the fed and see if it's another hawkish hike we're expecting a hike, right, and that will show the odds for september which are not fully priced in at this point for another hike we'll see if he hints at it. consumer credit very much in focus because of amazon and amazon shares as mentioned heading higher it's kicking off its prime day courtney reagan joins us with more on what we can expect, and whether it is a signal broadly for consumer spending in this country? >> absolutely. obviously, amazon gets a huge percentage of online sales, and we'll see if what we're looking at in the stock right now holds because on average, sara, amazon stock price falls 0.2% during the prime event and regains it entirely the day after insider intelligence does estimate that amazon's u.s. prime day sales will increase 10% over last year to about $8 billion. that's about three times more than five years ago. worldwide, sales could be nearly $13 billion. like previous years, retailers like target, walmart, best buy

are offering competing sales on or around amazon's prime day event too. adobe forecasts the two-day prime event could drive $13.1 billion of total u.s. online spend so that's amazon and competitors. that's 9.5% more than last year. and while amazon's ceo andy jassy told jon fortt last week that prime day is a driver for new memberships, consumer intelligence research partners thinks the u.s. prime membership is at saturation, estimates 167 million americans are prime members down from 170 mill an year ago the true goal may be to spur current members to buy in new categories or more top sellers include adult crocs and amazon echo dot, about half off pricing and elevated inflation and weakening economy, new analysis of buying trends from d.a. davidson points out amazon shoppers are trading down to private label products. jassy said consumers are buying

but are price conscious trading down and bargain hunting which could help or hurt sales depending on how you look at it. if we're living in an era of high inflation and you are offering me a discount, perhaps it incentivize me to buy because i'm living in an era of high flation and everything costs more, maybe that's not enough to get me to buy something more discretionary we'll see. >> do other retailers get a benefit on prime day a lot have jumped on the bandwagon with discounts >> absolutely. adobe is predicting about $13 billion will be spent across u.s. retail on these two days. so yes, there is some bump to other retailers. though most estimate it's not nearly what amazon is going to pull in. it's more incremental. we know consumers are smart, right. they know they can often buy products that are the same or at least very similar on different websites with dynamic pricing and price analysis tools that help you track where prices move i think a lot of consumers do price check, particularly on

higher value items before they go to checkout there is some benefit in playing in this day if you're another retailer as well. >> courtney, thank you for that update we'll be following that day as it continues courtney reagan. let's get wall street's biggest calls this morning and for that we go to dominic chu who has a breakdown for us. >> david, let's start with that amazon prime day kind of christmas in july celebration that's going on right now. so amazon shares you can see roughly up a percent or so it's near the highs of the session right now. we're talking maybe a little bit more aside from prime day, the analysts over at wells fargo have added amazon to their signature picks list of top ideas. it's overweight rated $159 price target they think that there's better expectations for amazon web services growth and also a boost from prime day and a favorable valuation from a risk-reward standpoint amazon shares up roughly 1% on that then you have shares of zillow which are higher by just about maybe % at this point right now.

now 9% the retail pricing and information platform is getting upgraded to overweight by analysts at piper sandler. the target price also goes up to $62. it was $42 they like amongst other things the trajectory for market share gains and broker ad budgets and better housing macro trends going forward. zillow up 9.5% there a check on jpmorgan chase, america's biggest bank higher by fractionally, three quarters of 1%, getting help from analysts at jefferies who upgraded that stock to a buy the target to 165 from 149 they like jpmorgan's more stable earnings outlook, better revenue diversity and think it's the best position bank to navigate a world with rising capital requirements of course all eyes on that stock and others at the end of this week we get earnings reports from jpmorgan, citigroup and wells fargo, all on friday morning guys, before the opening bell. sara, big week for big banks i'll send things back over to

you. >> more upgrades than downgrades lately does that signal something >> what's interesting. we always talk about this notion that sometimes analysts do ratchet do their expectations going into earnings season right now, we are seeing a bit more of that higher bar being set, so i'm not sure how much we get in terms of beat rate this time around, compared to other quarters, but the bar is typically lowered going into earnings season in the past. with the big banks maybe it will be a tell-tale sign. pepsico and delta even before that. >> pepsi on thursday thank you. dom chu. here's our road map for the hour shares of meta up more than 140% now this year but it got replaced as the large cap pick at evercore. the man behind that call joins us with his new top ideas next. >> the case for emerging markets as you try to figure out where to put your money to work outside the u.s. and billionaires and ceos are unloading stocks again we'll tell you what's behind the latest round of selling when we come back on this big show ahead. stay with us

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welcome back ever corps shuffling their top picks. uber replacing meta. amazon number two and meta and spotify. mark mahaney, head of internet research, joins us this morning. interesting whenever you shuffle them around, mark. i wonder, whether it was the concerns about wages in new york city that made you feel uber was

trading more attractively or something else >> i think it was more that meta had a great rally year to date i think it's well justified. i think the risk-reward gets less compelling here i like uber and the setup despite the fact that cfo looks like is going to be departing. the news came after we made it our top pick the timing does make me cautious but not enough to undermine the beat, which we have value catalysts in the 12 months, potential inclusion in the s&p 500, the attaining and sustaining of gap earnings profitability and i think they will start buying back stock so i have value capitals for a name that we think is holding up well that made uber our number one pick. >> where does it -- moving meta not to number two but farther down the list, what does that say about the year to date appreciation or your view on thread potential revenue which made news this week? >> i'm -- thread is just

fascinating. 100 million users in less than a week wow. and what it says is the power of instagram platform you start off with almost 2 billion users monthly users on instagram, and yeah, you can take 5% of those, 10% of those, and migrate them into a new app, a new communications platform, where there probably hasn't been n all fairness, a lot of innovation in the last couple years. there's a chance to do something differentiated i hope they can do it but we'll see. it's too early to know i'm impressed by what they've been able to do so far putting meta as number three it's also i like the setup on amazon here and i think if you get any live of acceleration in aws revenue growth, that's a segment that's most under performed and the biggest driver of the under performance in amazon stock over the last two or three years there's a lot of upside in amazon shares and you are going to get that react sell sfligs when it comes back to uber,

talking about the setup, mark, when a stock is up 101% for the last 12 months it doesn't mean it has a lot more to go but sometimes it can give people pause. why not you? >> well, the setup is these stocks got crushed last year for a lot of good reasons, mostly just a dramatic spike in interest rates, but we headed into a soft recessionary environment. it's unclear how these would hold up. uber mobility and delivery has held up really well. they're more utility-like than discretionary, and then in the meantime you've had this dramatic gap up in profitability. we finally got free cash flow out of uber in the june quarter last year and every quarter it's marched up that's not always the case going forward. i guarantee it won't be. it will be continuing to march up and you still have a really interesting valuation play here, despite the run up in the shares i see this with a 5% free cash flow yield on '24, 7% free cash

flow yield on '25 and for an asset, i think it's the only mega cap name that i look at and maybe across tech that i think can sustain well north of 20% revenue growth and we have profitability ramping up we have much higher like 40% free cash flow, earnings ebitda, i think it well warrants those multiples if not higher. there's more of a rerating coming on uber and why i like it, and it's our top pick here. >> one of the things i sort of underlined in your note about amazon, is that you think the increase usage and demand for a.i. in work, is going to boost cloud and storage solution like aws. do you think that's fully appreciated? that's an interesting idea if that's true then you would think there would be a lot of beneficiaries, not just amazon >> i guess that's our basic point. we think there will be a lot of beneficiaries. i think if you were to ask most market participants who are the a.i. winners, they mention nvidia and microsoft i think there's more winners than that. we're just starting to see the

rollout of a lot of generative a.i. applications. think about ai deejay on spotify, the travel bots on expedia. we're starting to see these. what that's going to lead to is more computation applications that aren't run on prem they're run in the cloud so that's going to be a rising tide for all of the major hyper scalers, all the major cloud vendors. the biggest cloud vendor is aws. i don't think they get enough credit for that. i think they lost some of the publicity battle and innovation battle, but it's a long way to go and if you start getting that re-acceleration in demand for cloud services, compute, storage, i think that's going to help power aws, including a few other things like cycling through the optimization sicycls that will lead to the major rerating in amazon shares. >> really quick, i was curious the bull story has been so repeatedly written on netflix. i was interested in the fact

that you saw eps risk there? >> well, look, estimates are getting super high in terms of the core i like this password sharing initiative i'm a huge fan of the basic with ads plan i think fundamentals will get better but, you know, expectations i think have gotten out of hand and maybe they will crush numbers this quarter, but in order for the stock to trade near term they have to crush system and i don't think that's risk-reward near term is that attractive i prefer to buy netflix after the print than into the print. >> the print itself, that earnings day is usually eventful one way or another mark mahaney, evercore. still ahead, cnbc's top space for business is out with its rankings north carolina taking the top spot while a different southern state missed the top five for the first time since 2007. find out why and what's changed that's after the break

i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion

from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. north carolina clinching the top spot in our top states for business survey making news is the second state to ever post

back-to-back wins. the other state is virginia. other big news in our rankings and scott is back at the biltmore in asheville and he's got that part of the story for us >> reporter: hey, david. biltmore is the largest private home in america still in the family, the descendents of george and edith vanderbilt. it's a very interesting place. let's talk about our top five again. recapping if you didn't see this morning as we revealed them on "squawk box. number one is north carolina number two is virginia number three tennessee number four georgia. number five minnesota. notice anything missing? for the first time since we started ranking the states in 2007, texas is not in the top five number six, texas, is still a powerhouse america's second best economy and for the first time tying california for best access to capital. but the lone star state is stressed. >> welcome these are desperate hours for

millions in texas. >> reporter: the state dropping to 24th for infrastructure with its challenged power grid and 35th for education with low test scores the state does finish second for workforce but some are leaving like camille ray and her bioscientist husband who moved to maryland to protect their transgender son. >> we needed to leave texas because it was not a safe place for us, not a place where leon could be himself. >> reporter: texas drops to last place for life, health, and inclusion not just because of its crackdown on lbgtq, and its abortion ban, but high crime and poor health care for every family like the rays, there's shavon and quintin, she's a nurse, he finished 11 years in the military. originally from chicago they could have moved anywhere. she chose fort worth. >> looking at the economic factors like no state taxes, extremely veteran friendly a lot

to do for our kids, we have two daughters. >> reporter: they like the conservative values but say there's room here for everyone. >> i feel like everybody is welcome in texas if you feel like your beliefs or lifestyle isn't adequate to texas's belief you can be the change >> reporter: we did reach out to texas governor greg abbott after our rankings were released and no response back yet it's worth noting this state, the top state north carolina, did also -- also did not do well for life, health and inclusion finishing 38th there were enough other things going on in texas, as we talked about, infrastructure, education, and also even business friendliness with a lot of regulations popping up in the lone star state that it drops out of the top five, for the first time, but top six isn't so bad. guys >> you mentioned crime and i am curious how much that factored in this year as someone who covers some of

these retail companies, consumer companies, when you talk to these businesses it is increasingly a big issue they're deciding whether to close stores, and how to protect their employees and customers. how did you look at it >> yeah. and we hear that also, sara, from site selection consultants that companies are now starting to look at crime in way that they haven't before. in terms of just where they want to locate, let alone closing stores we did look at that and we looked at fbi crime statistics as part of the life, health and inclusion category, and so there you see, crime is on the rise in texas. it has been for the last several years. so that is an issue along with the other things in that category. >> what was the beat the rush? can you explain that we still don't understand it. >> beat the rush is that the first gold rush was not in california it was in north carolina, 50 years earlier.

that's the first american gold rush was here. so they beat the other rush. >> of course where were you on that, david? you're a "jeopardy" fan. >> i was nowhere scott's clues are very difficult. >> i told you. if the goal is to not have anyone guess you are doing it exactly right. >> you and your wife apparently. >> people did guess, though. that's right there were people online that guessed and, you know, our first clue bwas there's the rub, and that was a misdirection with barbecue rubs but people noticed vick's vapor rub is from north carolina which even i didn't get. people are astute out there. >> it's all about the misdirection with you. scott, thank you scott cohen, appreciate it. still to come despite a volatile macro picture, is it time to bet on emerging markets? our next guest makes the case. fresh off an op-ed in the "financial times" and we'll break down things with

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm kristina partsinevelos with your cnbc news update ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy landed in lithuania moments ago to attend a key nato summit there zelenskyy's attendance called into question after he criticized the alliance for not setting a timeline on his country's path to membership president joe biden has said he doesn't think ukraine is ready for full membership but the u.s. and allies are continuing to support kyiv in the war with russia. ex-theranos ceo elizabeth holmes sentence is shortened by two years. she reported to the security facility to begin an 11-year 3 months sentence on wire fraud conviction she is scheduled to be released in 2032. people who live in iceland's

capital city instructed to close windows and stay away from a volcanic eruption that government officials say is spewing toxic gas. the activity started after intense earthquake activity in the country on monday and expert says the lava flow is slowing down and the gas plume is getting smaller. carl, back to you. >> christina, thank you very much. about an hour into the trading day on this tuesday morning. bob pisani has made his way to post nine to talk about what's morn. >> we've been trying to figure out a way to broaden out the market and have less influence on the big cap tech names and starting to see it take a look here the equal weight s&p 500, the rsp, has recently last few days been out performing. that's a good sign that's a sign of broadening in the market what's broadening out, energy stocks have been doing better. there have been laggards materials doing better even the russell 2000 the iwm is the etf for the russell 2000 out performing that's what you talk about when you talk about the markets broadening out

yesterday we had a big drop in the big cap tech names either side of positive or negative today as you can see here the important thing is they're a little less influential than a few days ago and that's a very good thing we talk about the nasdaq 100 rebalancing yesterday. it's not going to be that big in terms of the amount of influence on it. this is chris harvey at wells fargo noting microsoft, amazon, nvidia, alphabet have their weightings reduced but not by much that's not la lot. one day average volume sale. i don't expect to see price moves from this. it highlights the importance of these indexes these days there's a lot of money index to them essentially right now what you've got is more investors getting more exposure to market sectors using these etfs the triple qs or qqm, the nasdaq 100 etf, so there's a growing

role here of passive investing overall. you can see the money that's index to the big etfs. we talk about the s&p 500 for a reason by far this is where the money is and the s&p 500 here you see that, $417 billion, just in the spy. down there on the bottom invesco the fifth largest etf, qqq $200 billion and more money index to a smaller triple q out there, qqqm the point is there's an awful lot of money the rebalances when they occurred didn't used to be that important because they were largely academic now when you have a lot of money things move around a little bit here talking about the ipo market opening up, one on friday, biotech names that used to happen all the time. apogee therapeutics. going to raise about $250 million or so right at the mid-point. that's a nice ipo. anything over $100 million gets

a notice around here next week on the nasdaq on friday another big one, as well, oddity tech, a big consumer butte and wellness direct to consumer beauty and wellness company. raising about $300 million guys, jim is right, the ipo market is slowly opening up. yes, we're not seeing reddit, we're not seeing the big names that are out there that everybody wants to talk about, but these kinds of names, 250, 300, 400, 500, start to add up - >> the window open then? you've, obviously, focused than a lot hoping that it is? is there momentum building for it >> two things that matter are up market and we're getting that. we're 40 points from a new high on the s&p 445 a is the old high. we creep up. 40 points away from that more stable interest rates that's tougher here. you and i were talking about when the 2-year goes over that key 5% rate, the 10-year is over 4%, people start immediately sending e-mails, watch this.

we're a little hairy on that front. by and large, if not now, when, on some of the names sitting out there for a long time. will they get a better deal in the fall i don't think so. >> one explanation for, that the broadening out, the cyclical rally, the 52-week high list, it's hilton, marriott, discover, pfizer, not stocks that would be hitting new highs if we were expecting a recession. the recession stocks staples and health care, they're under performing so those higher yields may be rising for the right reasons and maybe that's why the market is okay with it. >> i am waiting for consumer staples and health care. that would be a big move up if we get that in connection with the cyclicals like the energy stocks and the materials we're not seeing that right now. that's another factor holding the market back. still, creep higher every day, ten points in the s&p will be at a new high soon. >> fedex at a 52-week high thank you, bob bob pisani our next guest penned an op-ed

in the "financial times" highlighting emerging markets. titled, quote, "a tale of economic resilience. here to discuss rockefeller international shchairman sharma. to our point the market pricing out a recession as we get worried about recession every few months is that what you're saying, it's not the u.s. it's emerging markets that are looking better >> yeah. because i think there's a lot about the fact that u.s. economy has been so resilient, the anticipated recession in history hasn't arrived, but i don't think there's been enough analysis about the growth upside and the surprises this year have come from emerging markets the problem in emerging markets is that a lot of the negative comes from the past and also because how badly china has been doing. but if you strip out china and you look at some of the other emerging markets from india to brazil or indonesia to greece, these are all sort of doing

really well. in dollar of terms double digits this year. the resilience that i think is way under estimated and under appreciated the headlines about the u.s. and the u.s. the market performance has been inflated a lot by the mega caps you have analyzed in emerging markets, china's bad performance is having the opposite effect. it's sort of not putting a spotlight, the resilience across the other emerging countries >> my question is why? usually emerging markets are driven by a boom in china or u.s. interest rates and both are working against them >> exactly that's what makes this more impressive why that's happening, two things one is that over time, emerging markets have been derisking themselves from china which is china turned more inward, it's the reliance on emerging markets to export to china or to be driven by what's happening in china has been going down.

secondly, regarding u.s. interest rates what we have to keep in mind a lot of emerging markets did not receive too much capital flows over the last decade because they've been going through a workout process of cleaning up their balance sheet. there's not too much capital in there left to flee because in the past, the way that emerging markets would get affected by higher u.s. interest rates, trigger a lot of capital outflows you don't have that this time because of emerging markets have been out of favor for a long period of time so they're quite cheap and under appreciated and many of them have been surprising on the upside look at the 25 largest emerging markets in the world three out of four of those had growth surprises on the upside in the first half of this year that's a pretty impressive stat. the point being resilience of the u.s. is well understood and sort of telegraphed. the resilience in emerging markets outside of china i think is under appreciated. >> you have to benefit from

picking one market in particular amongst the emerging markets, i'm curious about the long-term correlation to the u.s. market and whether it does provide the diversity, perhaps, that some would argue it does? >> i think it does because if you look at the last decade, emerging markets return has essentially been zero in dollar terms. all international returns have been zero. diversifying away from the u.s. over the last decade hasn't been the right strategy the u.s. has been the comeback nation or the breakout nation, whatever you want to call it i think that now, these emerging markets are showing a signs. my own forecast this decade, the u.s. is likely to produce close to flat returns, and yet some of these emerging markets are likely to produce on an annualized basis double digit returns because they're coming off such a low base. i think that diversification will help and going international will help. we're seeing japan and europe show much greater spunk this

year some of the emerging markets have better growth prospects u.s. in the near term plays a dominant effect in driving global market sentiment. broaden the lengths out and you begin to see the diversification is what matters. >> you know, the market, obviously, has been -- is on watch to see what kind of stimulus china can use to reassemble innounce and draw capital flow others argue that trade is really stealale and i wonder if there's anything they can say to reassert themselves globally. >> china i feel the long-term story in china is done, that their demographics are just too full of hinds headwinds. the stimulus can keep an eye on the market in the long term but the china story is done. that chinese economic growth rate over the coming decade is likely to average 2.5% a year or so that's way below what it used to

do when than that's not that much to take so much risk in china. i think the real story in emerging markets is outside of china and china is best can prevent we hope some sort of crisis from happening there through these measures they're taking i don't feel china is the place to be in any significant way over the coming decade. >> makes your emerging markets call more interesting. thank you very much for joining us. >> sure. >> from rockefeller. still to come this morning, despite this year's gains, america's billionaires selling stock and lots of it stay with us.

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neither is a blown weekend. with paycom, employees do their own payroll so you can fix problems before they become problems. - hmm! get paycom and make the unnecessary, unnecessary. - see you down the line. a growing cohort of billionaires and ceos are unloading stock at an increasing pace after a little activity last year. robert frank has been tracking that action and joins us with

some numbers important dynamic to watch, robert. >> yeah, carl. very important for investors the first half rally giving shareholders a chance to kach cash in some of their chips. america's top billionaires selling over $9 billion worth of stock just this year topping the list is the walton family selling $4.5 billion worth of walmart shares. they have sold over $25 billion of stock since 2016. that's to stay under their pledged ownership cap as walmart buys back those shares most of the biggest sales are in tech the co-founder of airbnb cashing in $900 million worth of shares, up over 50% this year. oracle stock up 35% this year that's made larry ellison $38 billion richer, and he has a little bit more spending money selling $848 million worth of stock as part of his options exercises. oracle's ceo also selling $470

million. also with her options exercises. salesforce ceo marc benioff, ceo of palo alto networks and three board members of nvidia big sellers. moderna's ceo selling over $300 million of stock in the first half that's after unloading about $400 million last year and finally josh harris, selling about $210 million, worth of apollo stock, that's going to help pay for the washington commanders with that $6.5 billion price tag. look at insider buying, that is now running about half of last year's levels. >> robert, to what degree are taxes a factor here? what do you think that thinking looks like right now >> well, a lot of the tax driven selling examines at the end of the year, so i think this is really a valuation question. remember, in 2021 we had record insider sales of $170 billion. that plummeted to $30 billion last year, so there wasn't a chance to really sell at

attractive valuations this year. if you look at the first half it's driven by the stock price which we've seen a lot of these stocks reaching 52-week highs. finally an exit opportunity and we could see more tax selling at the end of the year. >> staggering numbers. thank you. robert frank coming up, at 11:00, evercore vice chair with his take on the markets ahead of fresh inflation data tomorrow. as we kick off a pivotal earnings season, all kicks off in ten minutes don't gonyer awhe.

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we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. coo ron price and jimmy dunn defending the organization's planned merger with liv golf. dunn testified on how he participated in the deal >> we knew that a long-term fight with liv would be harmful to the players, fans, sponsors and charities. we wanted to begin the negotiation while we were in a strong position. this would allow us to focus on uniting the game or walk away if that objective was not being spurred. at the direction of the pga tour

commissioner and the board chairman, i contacted liv's majority owner and government of the public fund of saudi arabia. a limited number of in-person meetings followed and these meetings resulted in the framework agreement of may 30th. >> that framework agreement has yet to become a definitive agreement. of course, something we pointed out and asked about in our interview with jay monahan, who runs the pga tour. he's coming back to work on july 17th after taking a medical leave. a key question as they try to hammer out this agreement is not where politicians are and whether that in some way brings more opposition to the potential deal, even from an antitrust perspective, but the players themselves who were not sufficiently notified, many would say, of the possibility of this, who stayed true to the pga

tour despite, at least for some of them, the possibility of enormous paydays if they had joined liv where those players stand and if they're willing to sign on to that transaction, that's the key. i'm told the numbers in terms of the investment from the pif are not as much of a key negotiation at this point as it's simply getting those players on board as they need to at this point. some of the questions they certainly may have as well about saudi arabia's participation here, right of first refusal to continue to increase economics, if it chooses to do so. >> that's interesting. i'm sure the hearing will focus on saudi arabia and whether it should have this great influence on an american sport and on the pga, but the other angle here, and you cover a lot of m&a, david, it felt a little half-baked key stakeholders seem very

upset. there are still some big questions they haven't figured out how to reconcile on what it means for the pga player, what it means for liv players rory mcilroy, sacrificial lamb, people are saying, biggest defender from the pga. and randall stevens resigning from the pga board it feels like they didn't get it together before they came out with it. >> i think that's fair the key question and the answer i got is basically why not have waited until you got to a definitive agreement one of the reasons is because you did need to bring in those core constituencies prior to that and try to win their approval, so to speak. and it would have leaked if he had gone out wider with it, for example. you want to try to control the message. but having probably analyzed and seen more deals than pretty much anybody, you could argue it was not as well constructed as it might have been. of course, we made this point many times even in the interview we did at

the time there's a difference between a proposal, so to speak, or a framework agreement, as they call it, and a definitive agreement, which is what we report on when we report on deals here. >> it's strategy, right? >> and you can read the framework agreement, it gives you some sense of it, but filling in all the blanks, so to speak, is the hard part here, including getting those core constituents to sign off on it. >> are they using the term merger >> that's a good question. they don't love the term merger. pga tour doesn't, certainly. but i'm going to use it. i'm going to use it. because that's what it looks like and even over time that's what it looks like, even though it may not be constructed specifically in that way because of the holdings under each of the businesses you could make the argument that it looks like one, smells like one, it is one. >> the question is what does that look like, how many games are played in saudi, what do the players get paid. >> i'm told the next couple of weeks are crucial and a lot of

people believe it's a low proeblt they get to a final agreement. we'll have to wait and see speaking of sports, on july 28th cnbc and boardroom will host game plan bringing in the most influential leaders across the sports landscape we'll talk about the intersection of sports and business to learn more scan the qr code you see on your screen you can also go to cnbcevents.com that does it for this hour of "squawk on the street. we have another big hour coming urayig aerhis.

is anyone ever going to tell the truth... about what's happening here. 3... -are we saying there's a chance... 2... -we destroy the world? 1... good tuesday morning i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. one of the top financial advisers joins us right here on set. krishna guha joins us. komal sri joins us on where the fed goes from here. we're obviously on watch for cpi tomorrow and then more whispers today about whether or not it will be a soft print given with what's happened, you mentioned new york fed