is anyone ever going to tell the truth... about what's happening here. 3... -are we saying there's a chance... 2... -we destroy the world? 1... good tuesday morning i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. one of the top financial advisers joins us right here on set. krishna guha joins us. komal sri joins us on where the fed goes from here. we're obviously on watch for cpi tomorrow and then more whispers today about whether or not it will be a soft print given with what's happened, you mentioned new york fed inflation

expectations, the equity bulls have something to work with. >> it's all about core we are expecting a soft print on the headline number. june was so strong last year encouraging to get new york fed showing inflation expectations in a year at the lowest level we've seen since 2021. down to 3.8% that was good. you've seen some pressure come off the bond yield the two-year yield sensitive to the fed expectations, below 4.9% also watching the dollar which is at a two-month low. the feeling is we got some uk inflation hot numbers on wages feeling is they're going to have to keep going longer than the fed has to keep going. >> deutsche is looking for another 50 in the uk. >> and canada tomorrow, which is another close call so, these global central bank decisions really start to come into play. let's dig deeper into the state of the markets our next guest is expecting a july interest rate hike as the market is. a recession in the first half of next year. as for the rally we've seen

year-to-date, she sees it reversing in the second half neuberger berman private wealth managing director, holly newman kroft. are you surprised to see the strength >> yeah, it certainly caught us by surprise. we've been cautious, we've been defensive for over a year now, for as long as i've been coming on your show the market rally, i think, is a momentum move. if you look at the market, 15 stocks are responsible for 85% of the returns and if you strip out those 15 stocks, if you look on an equal weight, the market returns are 5% to 7% not only for u.s. large caps but small caps, international, much more modest returns. and so it's really been the momentum that's driving the market i think right now and in june what we've seen is a little bit of fomo for people who have been on the sidelines just plowing in we do expect that to reverse >> you don't buy the idea that

the recession keeps getting pushed out growth is still preserved. and inflation is coming down and the fed is nearing the end of the cycle. that's been the bull case. >> yeah. inflation is coming down it is still too high to be sustainable. although they didn't raise at last month's meeting, we expect as the market does, another hike in july. the dot plot suggests yet another hike again this year so -- we haven't seen the impacts on the market of this continued tightening s you both mentioned, we're seeing it globally central banks are continuing to raise. the uk has a much worse inflation problem than we have here and i think powell is committed to making sure that we don't stop the tightening too soon >> so, to the degree that a bull is over their skis, is in tech or in more of some of these industrial names doing 52-week highs? >> it could be in both we expect the market generally

to come down but the nasdaq is up 30% year to date and trading at 40% above its ten-year averages. we certainly expect tech to come down more because it's gone up so disproportionately. >> tech bulls would argue while it's a structural story that's changed as opposed to another cycle? >> yes, that is what they would argue. we would say it's similar to the dotcom boom and maybe the social media explosion in the late 2000s, early 2010s where some of the players that have had tremendous growth and success today may not be the ultimate survivors. when you think back to the late '90s, aol was the range, right we know what happened there. there will be survivors and losers and it's far too early to tell. >> second half you expect a reversal what's your favorite defensive play at this point >> look, we've been underweight equities the market movement has shifted

our client portfolios to a neutral stance and private wealth, so we're not selling anything right now we are starting to extend our durations on fixed income to lock in higher rate, higher yields for longer for our clients and the shorter dated paper we will use to go into the equity market when we see a reversal we continue to be very positive in private equity and private debt specifically private debt because after the banking turmoil, there are a lot of attractive opportunities. >> we ask you every time what it would take to make you bullish they're not going to ring a bell when they're done raising rates. >> they're not going to ring a bell, no i think we're going to see the market really pull back. again, we're not performance chasers. our clients, this is hard-earned, irreplaceable wealth our job is to grow their portfolios responsibly really focus on downside protection and strong market

performance without taking too much risk or putting too much volatility into their portfolios. >> hang on, if you would, for a moment we have breaking news to get to. i think steve kovach has that for us. >> microsoft has actually won the case against the ftc for the -- ftc was seeking that preliminary injunction blocking the deal the judged has denied that preliminary injunction, meaning microsoft will likely try to go forward here in the u.s. to buy activision for $69 billion we have lines out to the ftc and microsoft about what that means. one other aspect here is this is not over, sara, because the cma, the regulatory authority in the united kingdom is still going over this case they're not expected to have a hearing on this until the end of the month, which is past the july 18th deadline still a lot of questions about how microsoft can button this deal up. >> steve, thank you. steve kovach seeing the reaction in activision shares up 4.3% or

so want to get to david faber joining us on set. he's on the phone, of course clearly, this was a surprise, at least -- david had been reporting it was sort of moving this way and through the courts but you can see relief in activision shares. >> there had been so much momentum for those who argue that this was going to be a difficult deal to pass, certainly within -- within a certain time period. steve kovach gave us the basics. >> we had said from the outset it was a tough case for the ftc to prove and they did not seem to have done it in courts. certainly when you listen to the testimony of witnesses, read the transcripts. i wasn't in the court itself but i had a number of people who were there the ftc, they felt, had not fully proved the case, of course it was a tough case for them to

prove with the existing law in terms of is this really going to prevent competition for those who own the hardware, so to speak. and will they control the games that they develop themselves and not allow them to be used on other platforms. call of duty being one of the key ones and sony being the name that was mentioned most often by the government in terms of, perhaps, being disadvantaged it's a big loss for the ftc. it's an important victory for microsoft. of course, the question that we have now continued to be the ability of this company somehow as it goes back to the uk where we remained focus all along, as we said, that has been considered the major impediment given you've already had the competition committee, the cma in that country saying no to that deal. that is being appealed to a

tribunal but there have been these weird -- i have no other word to use -- conversations, i guess, about the idea that microsoft somehow can figure out a way to close this deal prior to the expiration of the current merger agreement, which is only a week away how that would occur is very much unclear to me it's something you have to make more calls on now that we have clarity on the ftc losing this case it will put a lot more focus on that cma process and the hearing that is supposed to take place where they are going to try to argue the procedures that the cma followed were faulty, which would have the effect, if they got agreement from the tribunal, of sending it back to the cma. >> it's remarkable, especially when we thought the initial window was gone. the other thing is avenues for

appeal on the part of the ftc. still exist? >> they do seems hard to imagine. i haven't read the opinion we rushed on here, obviously, with this news they would not grant the injunction to stop the deal i want to read the opinion, i want to get a lot of people who are even more studied in this than i am to weigh in. i think that's not expected. that's not going to stop microsoft from closing the deal because, of course, they can if they do figure out a way to deal somehow with the uk or, perhaps, again they won't close around the cma so they're going to have to extend the merger agreement which requires a renegotiation with activision, which is going to argue it deserves more money because its business is in a better place than it was when this deal was announce back in december of '21, and that remains a key question as well any number of moving parts, the opposition of the uk and the ability of microsoft, how they navigate that. >> i wonder if it has bigger

ramificationses beyond activision and microsoft the ftc now for -- a lot of companies want to challenge them now, right >> we've talked about this a lot on our first hour, sara, with jim there's no doubt this is a blow for the ftc which has been an aggressive agency, trying to stop not only deals but chill the market as a result of taking on deals that were really thought not to pose a true anticompetitive threat, the way we interpreted antitrust law for a very long time, namely starting with consumer harm. this will be a key question. horizon/amgen and this being the largest ones we think about. pfizer, cgen may get a second request, even though they filed. this will definitely be a blow for them there's no way around it for the ftc, does it mean it will

embolden companies that have been thinking about doing deals and halted in part because of concern? maybe, maybe not because the fact is time is also the key thing you look at. not weather you altima thely win in corporate, whether you're willing to go as as long as it takes. >> david, keep us updated. david faber. boeing out with june orders and deliveries for that we'll turn to phil lebeau >> take a look at shares of boeing cutting the losses we saw earlier in the session as the company reported big numbers for the month of june. orders coming in 288 planes were ordered. that is the best monthly order total for boeing since 2014. year-to-date orders at 567 planes it's deliveries that people are focused on that's what's going to drive the earnings at the end of the day the company delivered 60 planes in the month of june year-to-date, 266. the number to focus on, the 737

max, deliveries this year up to 216. their guidance for full year deliveries was 400 to 450. they're on track to at least hit that guidance, especially as they ramp up production in the second half of this year the backlog stands at 4,879 planes not an all-time high but it continues to edge higher these are strong numbers for boeing for the month of june, especially on the order front. best monthly orders since 2014 guys, back to you. >> thank you when we come back, evercore isi vice chairman krishna guha plus, take a look at shares of 3m. b of a upgrades on four catalysts, argues the rg 1apecteg is underpriad. taet10 wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs]

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take a look at microsoft this morning as we pay attention to not just the news regarding the ftc but also now a statement from brad smith of microsoft, who argues we're grateful to the court in san francisco for this quick and thorough decision and hope other jurisdictions will continue working towards a timely resolution. as we demonstrated consistently through this process, we're committed to working creatively and collaboratively to address corporate concerns >> big news the ruling now is

that microsoft and activision can close its deal went ahead the ftc in a blow of the head of the ftc and the biden administration, which has been tough trying to block these acquisitions. turning to the fed and the rate hike all but secured. our next guest says last friday's jobs number probably lowers the probability of another hike in september. joining us evercore isi vice chairman krishna guha. welcome back i'm curious to see what you saw in the print that makes you think september may be more of a coin flip. >> yeah, look, i think what we saw in the latest job report is further confirmation that the u.s. labor market is gradually cooling. is it happening quickly? certainly not. is there imminent danger of recession? certainly not. but the payroll numbers that had been the standout red hot feature of this labor market, they are slowing

that's what we saw in the data from friday. not just the last month but with the back revisions to the prior two months payroll gains still running well in excess of what will ultimately be a steady state for the economy. but they are slowing now, i think that gives us confidence, a, we're sure the fed will be going ahead with that hike in july, but if these trends continue, they probably would be willing to drop that second hike which feels like it's penciled in possibly for november >> it kind of reminds me of what ed hyman has been saying, which is normally a tightening cycle brings about some kind of crisis we got the taste of one in march. and they hiked again, which ed would argue is a bit unique, no? >> well, i think the fed made the assessment in march that they could walk and chew gum at

the same time, right they were aggressive with some of the financial stability interventions, like the new bank term funding facility to give banks cheap long-term funding for those underwater treasury and nbs portfolios and taking aggressive actions on the one hand for financial stability, supporting the banks, gaining the ability to raise rates further. now, i would say in all fairness, looking at what we've seen since march, we've not yet seen very severe evidence, very substantial evidence of credit crunch, credit restraint emerging i still think over time they will see meaningful credit restraint emerge out of the stressed parts of the banking system certainly, its not been severe and it's not very pronounced in the data so far. so, i think the fed can justify having continued with a little bit of hiking since then >> i think i'm going to disagree with you, krishna, on the september thing out of the jobs

report because the last thing that i heard jay powell is there's still more risk of underdoing it on inflation than overdoing it on growth he's not ruling out back-to-back interest rate hikes. 200,000 jobs may have been a miss but it's still creating 200,000 jobs with wages rising 2.4% that's not cause for concern on the fed hikes. >> 100% agree with you this is not a labor market that suggests, you know, we're wobbling into recession. it's a solid but decelerating labor market report. i think it's healthy in that regard you're right, chair powell, pains to say, still thinks the risk to inflation is greater than risk to growth. as growth continues to look resilient, that calculus can remain in place, for sure. and still soft baseline in the fed's eyes for two more hikes,

absolutely and not ruling out consecutive rate increases, yes. and but, this is a big but, first of all, why is he saying this stuff he's saying it probably because the data is more resilient and i imagine the hawks must have been really upset about what he said in his prior congressional testimony, which is when he said, another rate hike, perhaps, and i quote, perhaps, a second hike, right that would have got pressure from the hawks who would agree the baseline was 237 powell has been edging in direction of providing more optimistic assessment of their progress rebalancing the labor market i do think that's key to the outlook for the second hike and i do think the data is continuing to edge in the right direction there. >> we're taking the clues where we can nfib is a good clue today. krishna guha, evercore isi vice chair, thanks. >> thank you. when we come back, is it time to invest in europe

goldman sachs shows hedge funds are back to u.s. stocks. watch t-mobile today goldman names it a top pick as buybacks start to accelerate, in their view at denta 421erect pe4. he.

welcome back european markets set to continue their winning streak goldman sachs noting hedge funds have been raising their bets on european stocks to their highest ever levels. despite the market bullishness overall, the uk is down slightly it's reversed higher as key economic indicators spell out the story abroad two-year fixed rate mortgages hitting a 15-year high, not seen the global financial crisis in 2008 wage growth beating expectations in may, leading reuters economists to expect the bank of

england to raise rates for the 14th time in a row, in august, to keep inflation down germany getting economic data as well business sentiment there falling well below expectations. the index down 14.7, nearly twice that of the june read. missing expectations as well, carl you got a mix now of weaker economic data certainly in europe and then that hot wage number in the uk you can bet people in the u.s. will be watching that. i don't know exactly how correlated it's been, but they clearly still got a lot to go in this fight. >> the fundamentals are worrisome. some hedge fund positioning we got suggests they are trying to snap up european issues at a bargain. >> i read goldman. it seems like it's taking exposure off from the u.s. because of the strong and surprising run the u.s. has had, especially mega cap tech. >> we'll see how that works out for them let's get a news update with pippa stevens. >> protesters in israel are

blocking major roads and clashing with police over benjamin netanyahu's efforts to curb the supreme power in march trade unions shut down a large part of the country. police say nearly 70 people have already been arrested with more protests planned nationwide throughout the day northwestern fired long-time football coach pat fitzgerald after a law firm investigation found widespread hazing in the program. fitzgerald issued a statement saying he hired an attorney and will, quote, take the necessary steps to protect his rights. it might be a barbie oppenheimer double feature more than 20,000 members of its loyalty program have already bought tickets to see the bright and bubbly barbie movie and the nuclear bomb drama "oppenheimer" on the same day.

both open in theaters on july 21st that would be an emotional day to see them on the same day. >> thank you all in on barbie meantime, shares of affirm rallying this morning. mizuho ups the price saying the debt card will bring more traction. cnbc is live from sun valley you do not want to miss the biggest lineup including the ceos of activision blizzard, sofi and aic more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell

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two hours into trading, let's go post to post with bob pisani with a look at what's moving stocks are hanging in there. >> the big hope for the bull in the second half of the year is tech slows down and the market broadens out cyclical stocks like commodities do a little better consumer staples and health care do a little bit better so far that hasn't happened in any big way. however, in the last few days, we are starting to broaden out commodity stocks are starting to broaden out. there's conocophillips i love conoco because it's very levered to the price of oil. oil has gone from the high 60s into the mid-/low 70s. conoco has moved conoco was $100 last week. here it is, $106 that moves directly in line with the price of oil some of the other names, halliburton had a nice move up was 33 last week, the highest

level since march right now. these stocks are starting to break out a little bit it's only a few days but bunge, it was $92 two weeks ago now it's $102. this is one of the big global agricultural commodity stocks. you want to see other names break out, mosaic, for example, slow but starting to happen. you're looking for early patterns of signs of some kind of breakout. and then the banks u.s. bankcorp, highest level since april. we got an upgrade, believe it or not, bank of america has $40 price target on it but it's a buy. this was $28 a couple of months ago. you can see now close to $35 by the way, this pays 5.5% dividend 5.5% probably the highest of any of the big super regional banks so, there is some early signs of this broadening out.

meantime, the s&p 500, i know it's a drib, drib, drib, up five points, up ten points. the old closing high, $44.55, july 3rd, only 30, 40 points away from that move up this broadening out does have an influence. you just got to keep tech stocks relatively stable and let everything else slowly rise. at least in the last couple of days that's exactly what's happening. carl >> bob, thank you. bob pisani let's get to one of the notes catching our attention affirm shares are surging on the call from our next guest, racing his target joining us on set is mizuho managing direct dan nolan. great to have you back what are you seeing here how does it fit with some of the concerns we're wrestling with macro wise on the consumer >> yes thanks for having me on the show this is one of those rare cases where basically a product is out there.

it's gaining massive traction out there. we're seeing that with that google search data reminds us of the cash app, you were seeing the same thing then. none of it is in the numbers basically what it is, it's a debit card a hybrid debit/credit card you could either choose to do debit, pay now or do installments, pay in four, and you can do it anywhere you can do it at a grocery store, bodega, online, and and none of it is in the numbers that's why we're so excited about it today. >> what could it mean for the numbers? >> if you look at consensus estimates for volumes for the next two years, you're looking at 23% growth. if our numbers are right, this could reach 35% growth over the next two years by 2026 this could basically go ten percentage points above where consensus expects it to be. >> hence the 9.5% move off your

call today. >> thank you >> the bear case, as carl mentioned, economy is weakening, a lot of these valuations, these stock multiples don't make sense with the current interest rate environment. do you find yourself having to make the case a lot to some of your clients >> there's a lot of haters out there. buy now, pay later i was talking to a buy now, pay later executive. i said it's not your company, it's the category. people hate balance-heavy things we're over the hump, ie, we're closer to the end than the beginning in terms of the recovery towards hatred to the balance sheet to everyone hates affirm because they're worried about student loan refinancing, end of the year. this can more than offset any weakness whatsoever that is going to come their way. it's a huge upside on this and more than offsets the headwinds that are coming. >> are firm bulls rooting for a

drawdown in excess savings and degradation in the labor market because you want -- because you're in a business that helps provide a service to a distressed consumer? >> that's an interesting way to put it, to think about it as the lower end consumer is going to have to use that more often in a bad environment. we all want sort of a better environment. when your neighbor's windows are shattered, you don't want to be in that neighborhood either. everyone hopes for a better outcome but there's an idiosyncratic catalyst that no one is paying attention to that's what we did a deep dive on today. >> they are coming down. we track them every month and they've been coming down they ticked up slightly in may that's more of a cyclical thing. they've been doing a great job underwriting we track it every month and they've been coming down. >> i want to touch quickly on coinbase because it's gone 2x in five weeks people argue we're getting more

regulatory clarity is something else going on >> i have a $27 price target in my view - >> you hate it >> i hate it >> you always have >> i always have we've been consistent, but what i have to say about this, it's a commoditized exchange that will track bitcoin and ethereum because they will be regulated and the pricing there is going to be near zero. three basis points is what institutions are paying for trading crypto versus over 100 basis points for retail and they're gouging pricing. that's why i think it's going to end in fears. >> interesting reversion in the last couple of weeks >> your influence is shining much more in affirm, which is now at 10.5% as you speak. i guess, unearthing this sort of secret boost, what's happening >> on -- >> why is the company not talking about it on affirm >> on affirm

it's too early they are talking about it. if you go back to the transcript, they're talking about it but no one is willing to listen. max lefkin is talking about it they're focused on the buy now, pay later. that's the diamond in the rough we uncovered, hopefully. >> good to see you, dan dolan. when we come back, komal sri-kumar. jeffries upgrades jpmorgan thanks to what they call strong capital positioning. stock is up almost 1.5%. the numbers, never e we see the people. when i first started the company i was excited to empower people of all abilities. you've made something that people find invaluable. it fuels you to keep making a better impact with your business. i don't have to think about the pathway to the ocean,

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[silence] i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ turning back to the fed, which is dominating the market conversations ahead of tomorrow's key inflation number. while a potential hike in september is still on the table. our next guest expects the fed will pause saying they're more concerned about boosting growth rather than reining in inflation. joining us, global strategy president and former ctw strategist it's goo good to see you, sri. that's not what they're saying, that's not how they're acting, that's not what they're suggesting they still feel worried about inflation and they have more work to do. >> yeah. i think they are more hawkish in their speeches than they are in their action, sara look at what they did in 2020, 2021

we had a rebalancing of the balance sheet, maintaining zero sheets long before necessary so, that essentially doesn't show any hawkishness on their part subsequently even though they increased interest rates substantially, they were waiting to pause even as they paused, jerome powell told you a couple of weeks ago that they were going to really keep increasing, even in consecutive meetings if necessary. it is essentially inconsistent and does not show a hawkish behavior on their part if they want to prove that they are, powell should not be talking about his concern about liquidity crises similar to 2019 he should not be talking about what the qt is doing for that and just keep his focus just on inflation, which is not what the fed is doing >> so, what do you do about this would you suggest that bonds are

a buy? the two-year yield is higher again today at 4.9%. >> i think both the two-year and the ten-year are buy, sara ten-year at 4% is a buy. if you're going to hold it for six or eight months you'll probably see it go 3% if not lower. meaning one percentage point or more drop. as far as the two-year is concerned being where it is at about 390, you're talking about -- i'm sorry, 490, you're talking about a rate which is very, very attractive to investors, provides good competition to bank deposits as well as to equities. what this means is that there is an implication for the fed if short-term interest rates remain so high and the deposits flee again from regional banks, they are going to have one more banking crisis that's what i think powell is worried about when he did not

want to increase interest rates last month, sara >> do you think it's a mistake if they wrap this up, this hiking cycle >> i think if they wrap up the hiking cycle right now -- it depends on what you want to do if you want to prevent a banking crisis, maybe you're doing the right thing. but if inflation mitigation is where he's trying to do it, he is following a path with arthur burns showed in the 1970s simply does not work. you cannot have the stop and go policy with respect to inflation. if that's his target, sara, then they're not doing the right thing by ending the process right now. >> so, what does it mean for equity market, sri, if we see bonds rally here, do you think equities can continue their gains off that >> equities are clearly in the -- are under attack. they have done very well so far, especially over the last three to four weeks. the question now, can it

persist? at what point does the interest rate increase not only the rally set upbut break something in the system that's when i see the two-year yield and the ten-year yield coming substantially lower after a breakage happens and that's also when the equities get hit >> it's good to get on your updated thoughts appreciate it. a lot of people follow your bond calls. >> thank you speaking of the hiking cycle, higher interest rates are one factor behind a wave of corporate bankruptcies for that we'll turn to kristina partsinevelos. >> we have uncertain economic conditions, heavy debt loads that contributed to the highest level of bankruptcies in 13 years. in the first half of this year, 340 u.s. firms filed for bankruptcy with the majority in consumer discretionary, health care and industrials we know there's some familiar names like serta simmons, bed

bath & beyond, they top the list of liabilities over $1 billion yet higher interest rates haven't stopped firms from piling on more debt. according to the federal reserve corporate debt topped $12.7 trillion in the first quarter of this year, up 30% since q1 2019 while firms are finding it more difficult to repay that debt the median coverage interest fell year over year in q1. why we care about this ratio it shows how easily a company can pay on outstanding debt. it's a good barometer for a company's footing. and capital controls for banks after the svb collapsed. that doesn't bode well for firms looking to refinance, especially with so much maturities looking to refinance soon. >> so many need refinancing. the banks can be more picky doing that

why should you care? first you can trade on it with etfs most of these names are not much -- well, they're up less than a percent this year they do pay high dividends shyg pays above 6% fidelity's investment grade bond fund a safer bet, still pays over 3.5%. corporate defaults are viewed as a sign of the economy and financial health and a rising rate of defaults could impact investor sentiment, stock prices and even lenders' behaviors. >> definitely has a psychological component, too thank you, kristina partsinevelos. amazon prime day kicks off today. b of a estimates the sale will bring in nearly $12 billion but forecasting the worst prime day since 2018 we'll break that down next. shares of jetblue hitting turbulence this morning. evercore downgrading the stock

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if you haven't heard amazon prime day kicks off today. what might sales impact look like this year courtney reagan has more on that. >> amazon shares are up slightly today and on average amazon stock price falls 0.2 but regains after. we'll see if this year follows the trend.

amazon's prime day sales will increase 10% over last year totalling $8 billion in the u.s. that's about three times more than five years ago. worldwide, amazon sales could be nearly $13 billion for the event. like previous years, retailers like target and walmart are offering competing sales on or around amazon's prime event, and it does prove to draw incremental sales for others adobe forecast the two-day event will drive more than $13 billion of total u.s. online spend that's 9.5% more than last year. while amazon's ceo andy jassy told jon fortt last week that prime day is a driver for new sign-ups, consumer intelligence research partners are among those who think prime membership is at or near saturation, estimating 167 million americans are prime members, down slightly from 170 million a year ago. >> it's troubling with the high inflation and interest rate environment and when you can

come up with a day that brings so much value to prime members it's a great day last year members saved over $1.7 billion just on prime day alone and we're expecting it to exceed that this year. >> speaking about the broader environment, jassy told jon fortt that consumers are buying, but are price conscious. they're trading down, bargain hunting, which could incentivize shoppers or keep them from spending on a day like prime day. still elevated inflation and weakening economy new analysis of buying trends points out that shoppers are trading down to private label products which the firm says is, quote, proof that amazon is not engaging in anti-competitive practices on an absolute basis this, of course, references that ftc lawsuit that alleges amazon uses deceptive practices relating to signups making it hard to cancel so at least d.a. davidson says there's evidence that is not true we will see what happens with the buying

trends it's 48 hours in 24 countries, lot of shopping left to go. >> it's so huge, and yet it feels like, i don't know, your sense of it, it's not the biggest mover for amazon's stock lately or for the analysts on amazon we had mark mahaney on last year, because of aws and the shift towards a.i. how is the street thinking about it >> absolutely. i think that's spot on really it's not the retail business that's driving investors' excitement in amazon. consumers love it. it's not why an investor buys a stock. it doesn't hurt to have it enter into the prime membership and have that prime membership fuel the fly wheel in other ways at amazon, but it's the aws, the a.i. possibilities, where the value is for investors in the stock. as we mentioned at the top, usually these prime day events don't move very much for the stock, although important, generally, from a gross merchandise value for this quarter every year. >> thank you for breaking it

down courtney reagan. taylor swift taking down ticketmaster yet again this time in france. we're going to discuss when we come right back. ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

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. david joins us with more on the news today regarding microsoft and activision. >> i think let's start with the headline that i've got that's not really out there, and i want to leave this in the speculative realm but it looks much more likely now than it did an hour ago, and microsoft is going to close this deal to buy activision as soon i would argue as monday. the latest is very important news we've gotten from the cma remember, of course, we've a talked about the cma, antitrust regulator in the uk, for months now, which has blocked the deal based on its belief that it would be anti-competitive when it game to the cloud gaming market but what appears to have occurred here is, between the interim order from the cma and final order they now seem to be negotiating with microsoft in fact, we've got a spokesperson quoted saying we stand ready to consider any proposals from microsoft to

restructure the transaction in a way that would address the concerns set out in our final report in order to be able to prioritize work on these proposals. microsoft and activision have agreed that a stay of litigation, they've agreed with cma, in the uk would be in the public interest and all parties made a joint submission to the appeal tribunal. what does that mean? it means that microsoft has gone back and this is something i did point to when the appeals tribunal said no, cma, we won't delay your hearing and the cma said we have so much work to do, working on this final order and there was a belief perhaps microsoft was making new offerings that the cma was considering and that does appear to be really what's at play here in other words, saying, how about this would you consider it because we're going to go to appeal and we may have very good grounds and it's going to come back to you anyway cma has been under a lot of political pressure from the government in the uk as well, and so this is a guess on the

part of many who follow these closely including myself but it could be you get a deal with the cma, that is agreed to by all parties and microsoft owns activision as of monday at $95 a share in cash with no increase because they got it right under the wire of the exploration of the merger agreement. >> does warren buffet still have that bet - >> i think he may. >> which was looking improbable at many points. >> it would be quite a victory for microsoft to have pulled this out that said, the outset, many of us who follow these things believe that antitrust argument against the deal was fairly weak the eu had no issue with it and now the ftc has lost in court and now we've got the cma it seems in a negotiation with microsoft that will allow them to approve the transaction. >> no reason to think that cma pivot, so to speak, was influenced by today's decision here >> that doesn't appear to be the case in the months that have followed

the surprising decision, they've been under a lot of pressure and the appeals tribunal has been out there, july 28th when the hearing is supposed to take place, looking at the procedures they use to come to their decision >> wow up more than 10%p . and microsoft has gone positive. we didn't get to taylor swift but she broke the internet again. i was 879 now line. >> you got in there. >> let's get to the judge. thank you very much. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner, the state of the tech trade with the nasdaq pacing to break its four-month winning streak the investment committee debating the risk-reward of the sector. joining me for the hour today, everybody in the house here at the new york stock exchange. jim lebenthal, stephanie link, josh brown and back with us shannon saccocia, chief investment officer at new burger firm and private wealth. let's check the markets. have a good day going. dow at the