here on "squawk box" from alan and company sun valley media conference conducted by peabody award-winning journalist david faber. how's that, david? he asked me to -- no, he didn't. >> see you friday. >> kelly tomorrow. make sure you -- she only has one name "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange david faber is on assignment, heading to sun valley as joe says, where he'll have an exclusive with iger tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. eastern time meantime, the bulls get their wish as june cpi comes in cool lowest monthly core in more than two years. yields are dropping, two-year near 4. 4.75%

inflation falling to its lowest annual rate in two years a judge rules microsoft can close its deal to buy activision and domino's shares are surging, announcing this new partnership delivery with uber let's begin with cpi coming in lighter than expected airfare is down, used cars down. >> there's a lot of oddities i mean, there's a couple of real wins that people aren't thinking about. you've got -- i mean, well, again, you definitely have the used cars, very good, but shelter's down a little bit. and what's interesting is what's up is almost -- i don't want to say it's meaningless, but bakery bakery product you can downgrade on that, right? fresh whole chicken. switch over to beef. >> eggs, down 7% >> yeah. sugar and sweets well, good, we should have less of those anyway. the ones that are up, i am telling you, are going our way

too. because there are things that, frankly, are not -- if you really got to go granular on this, powell is winning because the things that are up are not nearly as important as the things that are down we still have to worry about wages. i'm doing a lot of work on wages and it's not good. i.r.a., infrastructure, number of plants being built, battery plants, those are not going his way. so, we're going to have to -- we're going to see a plethora of new jobs created that we're not ready for, but when it comes to the actual empirical data, i mean, like, other than twinkies, we're in good shape. >> yeah. well, you mentioned wages. real average hourly earnings, jim, june to june, now up better than 1%, is going to give some tailwind to the consumer, who's going to find that things, i mean, inflation is softer than wages right now. >> yeah. i mean, i think it's -- there's some real wins here. look, i mean, and the ones, again, that aren't so good, i mean, clocks i mean, hey, who needs clocks?

what's the point of clocks >> maybe that's part of the issue. >> maybe they're talking about some antediluvian clock. and then we have jewelry and watches, and i just think that's apple watch. so -- and look, i know people are saying, jim, you're being facetious. no, i'm being empirical. the numbers are very good f. you don't think powell is winning on the details, i think you should just get the page after page of what matters but the big one is used cars, and we saw that coming with manheim, and that is right in the sweet spot of america. >> and a lot of discussion how it's going to feed through into july's print as well that said, then, why are people still talking about next week as a given? >> i think you have to talk about next week as a given because we are not going to see any ability to keep wages down when we have three states, tennessee, kentucky, louisiana, that are in a level of wanting

to put up factories that they could distort the whole darn country. the number of jobs that are open because of i.r.a., because of chips, is so extraordinary that it's just inflationary, per se and it's really -- i've been putting together the actual numbers of jobs that are required for windmills, for -- just for pipes from west virginia, from all the different natural gas liquids, for lng, it's insane. so, they have to some of these projects can't be stopped by the fed, but the wage inflation is just going to be enormous so, i don't think it's wrong i think jamie dimon has made some points today when he talks about having to go up, but it all has to do not with what we're seeing in the cpi but what could be in the pipe for next year, given there's wage inflation caused by the federal economist. >> jamie dimon talked about a bunch of different areas, bank

mergers, but clearly his ongoing belief that the fed has more wood to chop take a listen. >> we've never had quantitative easing like this before. we've never had quantitative tightening before. i think the effect on the market may be more serious than people think. >> and you think the fed is going to have to tighten more than people think? >> i think there's a good chance, yes. >> that leads to his longstanding view. he was early talking about 6s. >> he did with me when he was in philadelphia how are you going to get a buybuy baby register cashier person to learn how to spot weld at a liquefied natural gas plant like the two that are coming how do you get the people who are being laid off at party city engaged in how to make a windmill in kentucky the job mismatch is so bad in this country that the fed has to take notice that the whole re-education of the workforce is going to cost a lot of money >> you talk about job mobility,

in other words >> exactly >> we haven't had -- we haven't heard powell sort of decry this industrial policy. he hasn't come out and said, look, guys, we're trying to do something overhere, you're working against us >> i think the money's already been going to the states the states, if you take a look at what jacobs is saying, big general contractor, av com, they do the actual building, and it's just humongous, and it's all concentrated -- micron is trying to find, they say, 2,000 people to build a hundred billion dollars worth of plants in the middle of new york well, the middle of new york has not produced those kinds of workers since general electric was founded. so, the mismatch has got to be noticed by powell soon and he has to just say, look, one of the reasons that we are concerned is because as that money is being put to work, which is right now, we can't find the workers so, you're going to have to to bid uptown and then train talent and then if they're not doing it, they ought to look into it i'm looking at just the plans

from new core alone and you see there's a tremendous number of people that have to be put to work in jobs they don't have any experience doing >> so, you think september is still alive? >> i think that when you start seeing the amount of money that's going to come out in the next three, four months, it's just -- i mean, you know the states can't figure out how to do it. mitch landry, the infrastructure czar, i mean, he doesn't know how to do it no one knows how to spend all the money they did a lot of people feel like the states should give some of the money back highly unlikely. we're not going to rebuild i-95 in two weeks like they did in philadelphia >> that was a one-off for sure >> that was a one-off. >> does that mean that the e ebullience among the bulls is overrated? >> yes i just say, kentucky, tennessee. you're going to see a level of individual state inflation that we're going to have to struggle

against, and that's why these numbers, which don't include homes, they took those out in 1983 to make the cpi look good, we're going to have to reinstate some by state. you're going to see some states have a dramatic increase in wages and a dramatic increase in, therefore, services, because a lot of the places that they're building don't have anything around them. it's all green field so, i just think reclass -- retrain. why no one's talking about this, i don't know i think it's because it's too granular for the numbers yes, we're absolutely able to figure out the price of cookies, which, by the way, are hanging in there, down sorry, mondelez. yeah, i care about oreos, but what i really care about is community colleges, the ability to learn how to spot weld, the ability to make it so you can build cell towers. we just don't have people who know how to do this stuff, carcarl and we have to train them, and

we got to get them trained in the next 18 months because this money's there. so, i just think these numbers look very good in terms of what's going on with the consumer, but when you see what's going on with wages because of the i.r.a. and because of the chips act, you're just going to see, well, wait a second, where are all these people >> well, maybe that's -- that is a useful tailwind given that redbook, johnson redbook comps are going negative deloitte sees back to school going negative for the first time in years. >> that was an amazing piece, the deloitte piece every year, the price of going back to school increases every year, you go to bed bath & beyond, buy the bad stuff because your kids don't know the difference no more. >> the inflation on back-to-school supplies has been insane >> it's been horrible. i think that walmart is your last saving grace, and tjx, which got a huge upgrade today >> loop goes to buy. they were at 75.

they go to $95 on tjx. >> one of the secrets, by the way, a lot of undercover former police people in the aisles who instead of just letting you walk out -- like i once saw a person walk out of banana republic with three sweaters on a hot day. i demanded to pay. i was an outlier but when you go to tjx and you're in that second sweater, someone comes up to you and says, take that off. that's the smart way to do that. why won't anyone else adopt the ex-police eyes i don't know $15 an hour. >> worker safety that's the one thing >> yes >> so, you, in general here, although today's futures notwithstanding, remain pretty cautious you still think the magnificent seven is the easiest way to play >> everything about them the anti-inflationary. i'm talking about what's going to happen in the pipe. today's a good day, but if you're looking at job creation in this country, you know that we're stimulating a job market

that is so stimulated already, and we are not -- remember, we're a consumption economy. 60% of our economy is consumption. 30% of the chinese economy is consumption. we are going to switch it and we're going to have to make it so maybe 40% to 45% of our economy is industrial, because we can't afford to pass up on all these jobs that gina raimondo, the secretary of commerce, brought in we're talking about projects, $40 billion. there's 14 battery plants in this country ford got $9 billion just to build its own. >> i know, jim but we have had tech lay off a lot of people. "washington post" yesterday looking at hours worked getting cut as a very steady tell about what happens eventually. what happens next. >> what i'm doing is trying to justify jamie dimon's otherwise outlier forecast to say that it could be true. by no means do i think that the fed's losing i think the fed is winning i'm just saying that we have to

be have aware that the congress and the president way overspent, and there's no place to put that money. and that money will not be spent because they can't find the workers. >> overspent on -- i mean, did you not want to reshore? did you want to continue to rely on taiwan for chips? >> not at all. but remember, it costs five times to build a foundry in this country than it does in taiwan, so we're going to spend the money but to find the 2 h 2,000 workers that it takes to build a fun oundry, where? i found a company in israel but because it was saturday, the sabbath, nobody worked there i went to see one build near the abbey average in ireland we are in the formative phase of building all these and we don't have the people. >> i think viewers get your -- where you're going on wage

pressure, but i mean, adobe online prices are in deflation amazon, now, we're paying very close attention to what prime's going to do yesterday and today. >> it was a little scary to get everything that i had bought in the last six months down 50% i'm like david i bought all the stuff i bought for david too >> you know his sizes? >> yes cupcakes, they didn't come in like i would like them too this is all good this is the fed winning. i'm just cautioning people that we're going to have another kind of inflation they have to do the work like i do, which is tedious it's tedious to see how many people it takes to do a heavy sheet mill in decatur, alabama, but that's what inflation's going to be. >> we'll see if that's a pocket or if it's broad >> that's everything when we come back, big news as you know by now on the microsoft-activision deal after that merger's legal victory at the ftc. ,

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microsoft and activision aiming to close their merger deal next week after the federal judge rejected the ftc's attempts to block it that decision was a setback for agency chair lina khan and her push to challenge big tech s.e.c. can still appeal, and in the uk, regulators who blocked the transaction say a newly

restructured deal might require a new probe, but you said it pretty plainly last night, what? corporations, 1, ftc, 0. >> smackdown this was one of those, by the way, there are ways to turn down an agency, but just to say the agency's dead wrong and doesn't -- basically doesn't know what it's doing is a rebuke, and what really makes this important, it's a biden judge. i mean, this wasn't some trump judge. this is a biden judge who basically just says, look, what are you talking about? what are you talking about this is nothing to do with antitrust. so, i mean, it's one of the things where if i were a goldman-sachs -- forget goldman, they haven't been able to do much lately. if i was a morgan stanley m&a person, i would be calling ever everyone and saying, listen, free at last we're ready. i think this was such a huge win for corporate america and lina khan, we're going back to the days when she wrote the seminal piece that says, mergers are bad

because they only help rich people that's not the doctrine of the united states. this judge talked about the doctrine of the united states, which is to let deals go and happen if they're not really causing monopolistic pricing >> there's a look at judge scott and her 53-page ruling is a good one to read. what do you think khan does now, though >> what do i think khan does i think khan is an unstoppable force who will keep losing she says she's interested in doing this but the tide has turned because -- mostly because you have a biden judge saying, look, this is enough we're not stopping deals that actually could help the american people >> and it's not just this deal i mean, there's deals involving meta and illumina that some argue the courts just aren't ready for this kind of expansionist view. >> there is an antitrust doctrine about what is wrong and what's right and typically, it hinges on

whether the consumer -- at&t, t-mobile, sprint, whether -- whether the consumer gets hurt we're going back to the logic, does the consumer get hurt as opposed to, do richer people get rich that's never the doctrine of the united states ever so, khan has been proven to be an outlier, and i think that's something that makes it so that you don't want to make the agency a joke. you don't want to reduce the agency to where it starts having really good people leave and you can't just make up law, because you're an agency you're a commission. >> you're saying the agency will read the room, in other words? >> the people who work at the -- the professionals, i don't think, will tolerate any more of this abuse of her power. i just think that they'll say, you know what? we have a doctrine we have a way that we handle antitrust, and we're not playing ball with her. >> that will be interesting if regulation stops being the friction force, maybe it's as

"the journal" said yesterday, price. sellers are, like, show me some love >> we happen to have someone who is at the center of deals that would be blocked, and his name is david faber, and he'll be there tomorrow, and i think that the tone of the conference will be, you know what? let's think about doing a deal, because if it doesn't hurt the consumer, the federal courts are going to go for it, and lina khan is going to prove to be a speed bump on the way. >> "journal" has a piece about disney looking at star india >> that's something that nathanson is doing his homework now, says is a great thing look, we could belabor how wrong the fox deal was, but one of the things that changed there was that they lost -- that it was going to be this great thing they had and they lost the good part anything that makes it so that debt is reduced and david will

have an exclusive with bob iger, is such a positive that the stock goes to 100. i have a meeting for the club at 12:00, and i am saying how wrong i have been on disney, but if you stay tuned, that i can't be that wrong that doesn't mean i'm a broken clock that's wrong twice a day >> you're sticking with disney thematically for now >> i like the term fanatically phantic? where's he >> no, thematically. >> we need philadelphia to get in there no, i think it's very positive they're starting to realize, it's the balance sheet, stumd. it's the balance sheet it's not plus. it's how much they have in the till >> yeah. >> so, i like it >> we'll talk more about sagaftra and where we are with labor relations within the media and the auto industry. >> auto industry, the fellow that runs the auto industry, he's a throwback to the days

when they struck routinely >> the talks officially start today with the uaw by the way, quick programming note julia boorsten will interview bobby kotick on 3:00 p.m. this afternoon. dow looks to open up about 240 points we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and the opening bell in a minute what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity.

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if you're just joining us this morning, futures looking pretty good as core cpi monthly, lowest gains since february of 2021, and a 3% headline print year on year

that's the lowest since march of 2021, so you'll see a lot of headlines today of inflation growth at a two-year low opening bell is coming up in about five minutes and you can catch us any time, anywhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. time for cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell >> it's something occasionally so earth-shattering with a company that it's just a stop-trading event this is just amazing, this uber eats deal with domino's. right now, you can order domino's, from now on, on the uber eats app. now, alone, domino's does one-third of pizza delivery already, despite having zero share. so, i think this is worth every penny to domino's stock, because this is a new, fantastic source, and i think that, wow, domino's still does the delivery, but it makes so much sense. it wouldn't shock me if eventually it's more than just uber eats.

>> well, there's postmates makes its way into this report as well but domino's has been famously resistant to third-party delivery >> i used to have mr. allison on, and he used to bemoan the fact that there were these entries that were making it so his delivery network was not as effective. no no more. russell 100, "this is an amazing deal i understand the stock being up 40 i could see the stock being up 60." this is a game changer domino's has one-third of the pizza delivery despite having nothing like this, so, yes, you'll call uber eats on the app, and domino's comes. brilliant. >> yeah. it has implications for unit growth for certain >> it sure does. >> there's another piece on the tape today about automation at chipotle with a machine called the auto-cado, which can cut

guac time in half. >> that's better than chippy that makes the chips throughout the system -- i think sprinkler on tonight that's another company that does basically makes it so there are fewer people in a contact center it's happening, carl but it's not -- these people need to be retrained in order to be making steel. i don't know how that's done >> i like that big theme for you these dieays s job mobility and a mismatch. >> this is an exciting time in business new companies like nucor are struggling they'll find the people and train the people, but those are going to be the source of how to tamp down inflation. it's big >> there's a look at the opening bell >> oh my >> at the big board, it is ceo of oracle celebrating ten years at the nyse. at the nasdaq, it's gen restaurant group celebrating its recent ipo jim, i know you have been watching -- >> you never see katz. i'm idolatrous of what she's

done, and people don't understand what a juggernaut she's created. although, of course, larry ellison, i don't want to slight larry, he's brilliant, but what a big deal to have oracle listed over here. >> i know you have been watching the stock of year-to-date gains, coming off 125 >> 37% a lot of this is just -- go listen to her call people have ignored what they have been doing for some time. to ignore them now is to do so at your own peril. that's how fabulous they're moving in the cloud. >> do they belong in the magnificent seven? >> i debate it and debate it but they didn't send number eight. it would have been ian, because robert vaughn was there. >> we'll watch that closely. the other thing, jim, is going to be the banks. we played the sound of dimon, but today, jpn does get cut at citi >> gratuitous downgrade that they have to pay for when jamie dimon surprises. but by the way, goldman, i don't think that -- could you do more to preannounce

>> that's what mayo's point was. preannounce without telling me you're preannouncing in some of these news releases or comments last six weeks >> david solomon, talk about lowering expectations, i mean, why don't you just say, look, there's zions bank and we're coming in right under zions. >> you must feel better about going into the prints not as hot. >> i think what was more important was the smackdown of lina khan and so there are things going on in m&a that are extremely bullish. >> we talked about some of the early tells about ipos, for example, over at morgan stanley, and the notion that we might be entering a new cycle >> yes, morgan stanley's stock, my travel trust owns it, it's been a pathetic parody of the human mind of late, and i would like to see that it -- to

reverse it >> yeah. 47 -- or 4,480 almost, jim >> where is -- where are the bears who come on every day on our networks and say, don't believe it where are the people who say that the best time for apple, we're passed where are the people who still think that nvidia is just a gaming card maker? >> well, they're probably looking at consensus for q2 earnings >> they're looking for new jobs, and they are going to be the welders at the lng products, the huge, huge new lng they are needed desperately. some of these strategists, i can tell you, i could tell, they better learn the term, assembly. >> there's your working pool of labor for some of these new factories, wall street strategists that have gotten the year wrong >> there are a lot of things you can do when you become a metal bender shocker. my mom was a spot welder you can learn anything >> countries like germany have a fantastic system of training people for trades.

>> well, what can i say? the germans have understood the craft, as the french have, that it's okay. a craft is something worth great value that we have to start -- united technologies now, raytheon, they are the only ones i know that are really graduating a huge number of people from college. they're the second largest creator of college tuition payment after the u.s. government that's a company that understands. >> yeah. pretty nice deal for rtx on the air force contracts. >> yes, yes. and don't forget, the patriot missile does work. >> yeah. and all sectors green here obviously, financials helping to lead, up 1%. we mentioned some of the budding labor disputes sag/aftra is facing a deadline very soon. we we're watching the studios ahead of faber's interview with iger tomorrow you mentioned the autos, uaw

talks getting under way. >> i don't like the pretalk tenor where there are interviews being given by the head of the uaw that are basically saying, the billionaires have made enough money it's a little frightening to hear that kind of talk, because it's reminiscent of what you heard when labor first became a force in america, when they're starting to talk about fat cats again, i mean, even senator warren is more tepid than that >> well, i mean, on the actor front, the writer front, there's new iterations of the way you make content and a.i., and then in the auto business, there's the ev business, which is a different ball of wax. >> well, the -- yes. and they don't want to see the i.c.e. jobs, the internal combustion engines, which are being saved back rather dramatically, make it so that they're being bumped by a joint arrangement with a battery factory where they're not going to be allowed in so, i think that the unions are

on the run, but they have the ability to shut down production. and that's going to -- i happen to like ford very much, and i think the world -- i think the absolute world of jim farley but he's got his work cut out for him. >> meantime, we'll watch the banks, the autos are you going to get up and go what's the plan here i see you have a stick mic >> i did it once with dara i'm doing it with savra. >> jim tackled dara khosrowshahi of uber on ipo day with a stick mic just like this are we going to get a wireless camera on you, jim >> you are the best. you know that. i've always enjoyed everything you've done. first of all, congratulations on everything that you have accomplished >> well, it's a team effort, and thank you so much, and thanks for having me here >> oh, got to ask you a question you -- 37% increase this year. how much of it is the fact that people now understand the power that you have in the cloud, you, personally, have decided that

you want cloud leadership? >> i've got to tell you that our cloud leadership in a.i. and all the start-ups that are coming to us are because of engineering decisions made by the team, and they are all playing out we are the fastest in the cloud, and time is money in the cloud, so it costs a lot less for our customers. it's a great time for all of that >> and do you perceive a day when we just stop talking about amazon web services and microsoft and google cloud i mean, google cloud do you laugh at google cloud >> no, i actually give all our customers the chance to pick whatever they want we believe in true multicloud, and our customers, when they try us, or our prospects, when they try us, they inevitably pick us, but of course, there are customers who haven't tried us yet, and so until they do, we're not the biggest, and we respect our customers' choices >> do you still love the job, safra? >> yes >> you go to work every day.

larry goes to work every day >> you bet he does >> who gives the orders now? >> it's a team effort. he's the owner, calls me boss, but can't explain that >> all right, well, look, you promised me one question and i just gave you six. i want to congratulate you so much >> thank you, jim, for everything you say about us because i'm always listening to you. >> and because you deserve everything that you do thank you so much. >> thank you thanks, jim. >> jim making his way back to set. that doesn't happen too often where we manage jim to tackle a guest on the run >> well, safra catz is so incredible what's bothered me is she's not gotten the respect that she deserves this is a person who has made it so her company is not only in the conversation but is taking share, and i think she's not given nearly enough credit, and the stock up 37% is not giving enough credit to what they've done she's first, of course, a team player as always she has been since the day i met her, but what a competitor

larry ellison, always a competitor, but think about it i like her attitude. >> kind of remind me of this downgrade of cisco today at bank of america as they go to neutral 56 >> gratuitous. >> you've said that a couple times now. >> chuck robbins is doing very well he's got to get back more and win more business behind the scenes when it comes to a.i. but he does have products that are very valuable, and it's just that one of the things that has happened with nvidia is that nvidia's -- because they bought malonox, their front, their back, their everything, i was surprised they have to be in the arm deal but why not one thing we know about jensen huang is he's ecumenical he takes business from everyone. >> they are looking to be anchor investor in that ipo even though you can see on the chart where we got that enormous historic guidance, hasn't really been rolled back by the street or the company >> when you do $4 billion better

than people think, you have got it what that really says is you've got a lot more than people realize. the unbelievably great ceo was talking about how china does close out opportunities, but all i can say is, get in line. you want the -- i got to have an h-200 to compete with everybody else this company is doing things right now that are only dreamed about, but they're so much faster they're 45,000 times faster than the other guys when it comes to, say, climate 40,000 times that's a lot a lot of superiority >> that year-to-date, almost a three-bagger it's going to be -- we're going to be talking about a three-bagger this year >> never seen it before in my life, but jensen huang told me in 2018, will anyone ever listen to me when it comes to this kind of thing well, they're listening, and they're buying, and the combination of chips that he has put together, let me just pull back you just heard safra catz with a level of humility.

jensen, it's frightening, because the thing that he's most proud about is the fabulous gourmet table of food that he has, the layout that he has. he has no ego whatsoever how could da vinci have no ego that's what i call him >> yes, da vinci >> oh yeah >> da vinci in leather >> yeah. yeah look, there's business people, carl, i know, who have got to be as tough as nails, but when you're someone like me who's been in business for 44 years and you get to meet safra catz and jensen bhuang, if you're not idolatrous to some degree, i'm not a sycophant, but go into another business these people have changed the world. jensen huang has changed the world more than anyone last night who won the all-star game. >> pretty remarkable bill gates with a blog post talking about the way a.i. will change our life and certainly reflected in so many corners meta, we were mentioning earlier

today. >> oh, boy now, mark, i mean, i know mark gets kidded, mark zuckerberg gets kidded because he's working out with someone who's very good, but the fact is that he's going to make threads into a juggernaut he's got big plans that are not unlike insta it's just that we can't visualize it because he's one step ahead of us he went against lina khan earlier, but that was a minor thing. i think he -- look, once he figured out how to so-called get around the apple changes, look what that stock has done the way we envision what could happen with threads is much smaller than what will ultimately happen. and that's because they're really, really smart people. >> we continue to watch -- >> oh, geez. >> we continue to look at -- >> which one is he >> i guess it's the rivalry between meta and tesla in this case or twitter and threads. they're at work.

>> right i mean, but you've got -- think about this you've got jim farley with an f-150, and you've got elon musk with "princess bride," right "my name is montoya. you have a guy like zuckerberg who takes a look at what threads is going to do and decides, if i can eliminate all the horrible, deplorable, vicious people who do nothing but say horrible things, then people will want to come in and watch the comments ag again. and that's what used to be the secret and by the way, the old people who are running -- who were running twitter would tell you that when they debased it by allowing people to come in and basically assassinate people, that was when the postings stopped having meaning and now, zuckerberg understands that by the way, zuckerberg, we show him in that picture. we talk about the kinder, gentler zuckerberg can you imagine what's happened in the world >> well, i mean, it's no

reflection on his demeanor it's just that he's fit. >> i think he's a fun guy. >> yeah. >> kind of a nice guy, actually. i know what can i say >> yeah. >> i got plenty of people i hate don't worry about him. >> you mentioned the ftc and if that decision yesterday does connote some kind of all-clear, are you going to start to draw up dream deals >> absolutely. absolutely and they're going to be in our industry they're going to be in the tech industry they're going to be in industrials. they're going to be in everything involving e-commerce, because everyone's been afraid of lina khan, but that's over. the doctrine won doctrine won by the way, just so you know, it's not corporations, one, khan, zero it's established antitrust phil arita doctrine go back to the '80s when he established our doctrine and realize, as much as i like jonathan kanter, he's a justice, he understands the doctrine.

the tyranny of khan has ended. the tyranny of distribution of wealth >> it's going to be on us, then, to ask ceos whether or not they are thinking of m&a differently start starting today >> we have about a hundred more oil companies than we need we have about 2,000 more banks than we need, but everyone's been afraid to do anything except for jamie dimon and that was like a rescue mission. >> yellen has talked about bank mergers as seemingly a nonthreat. >> how about yellen goes, spends four days in china, cooperation, cooperation, cooperation, and then they do the biggest flyover of taiwan they've done in months the belligerence but they can't get the h-200, so who cares? >> and now, the premier meeting with executives from baba and jd, urging local governments to provide more support >> she wants them to be more of a consumption economy like ours, so he has to do that he's stated that over and over again behind the scenes. i'm telling you in front of the scenes, he wants his economy to be more like ours, but he's got to stop taiwan flyovers.

that's not going to endear us. >> the curious thing for me, jim, is that, you're getting some relief on regulation. you're getting relief on inflation. >> yes >> you're getting close to 4,500. you don't -- you're not like itching to buy more. >> look, i actually -- we are overbought there are areas of the market, both bank and drug, that are bad. i don't want to come in on top of these moves, i say this in my 12:00 meeting, i don't want to come on top of a meta move right now. i don't want to do that. i think you have to step back and say, do you want to go buy the magnificent seven, you can buy a little now but you have to recognize -- you can come in and buy some nvidia now, but there's -- it's entirely possible that a parabolic move gets rolled back and you might get a little better price, but the stuff that's down -- i'll give you an example. palo alto networks is down $7. i've got to find out exactly

what happened to palo alto networks, but that -- nikesh is doing such an amazing job, so on a case-by-case basis, you can buy things, but i want to warn people, you don't want to just sit there and say, you know what this is going to last forever. i'm going to go -- i'm going to go buy amazon on the idea that prime day was good but if you want to buy something that is not the magnificent seven, safra catz and oracle, be my guest that stock deserves to be much higher >> seems like you think of them as ex officio magnificent seven board. >> i've never made a lot of money betting against larry ellison, mostly because i'm scared to death of him i was on his island in hawaii and had a really good meal, and i heard it was his island. no man is an island. >> ellison actually is an island an entire island the only thing we haven't gotten

to is the continued rollback in travel, carnival in the red. i noticed ual met with the acting faa chief as their dispute goes back and forth and maybe that's a reflection of what happened in airfares. >> which is actually positive. i think they may have gotten too expensive. things are going powell's way. i'm not disagreeing with that. i am saying that the areas that people are buying today are the areas that they have been buying and buying and buying, and i wish it would, at this point, i wish it would broaden out. i wish that there were retailers that people felt better about than t.j. maxx and costco. and to some degree, walmart. but it does mean we do need to see a few more stocks go up besides amazon, apple, i mean, there are other companies. there are other companies. palo alto, down $7 give me a break. >> that's interesting. dow is up 313. watch bonds today. we got cpi under our belt. we are going to get kashkari about now.

bostic at 1:00 mester at 4:00 >> mester? >> yep >> oh no >> we get closer to the blackout window later in the week but for now, dow up, s&p 18 points from 4,500. the first time your sales reached 100k with godaddy was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com (swords clashing) a-had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> there's a story that microsoft is offering a competitive product to cyber security and palo alto to me it's pure vaporwear. i think it's a spin on their identity product they're going to use palo alto

in their vpn so selling this, be aware they may be the winner. >> tonight are you going to work to suppress enthusiasm >> no. i'm just saying it's a little too narrow if you look at humanna, bing bing bing, airbnb i like the positive note, no. i do like, just you know, i like tech but i like to be -- i don't want to go in and say today is the day i buy tech that's what stupid people do although when it comes to oracle, sold i'm sold >> and you have a meeting at noon, what happens at noon today? >> at noon i'm going to outline what it's like to not just come in and buy because you see the pressure i'm anti-fomo. i'm going to describe there are moments you want to buy and there are moments you don't want to buy because everybody feels like now i'm a genius, i'm in

nvidia, no no you can't do that. you have to get -- you have to time things. i know it's a drag, but i have to do it this way. today is the day you buy palo alto it's down yesterday was not the day to buy palo alto. today is. >> docusign tonight? >> yes i have docusign, sprinkler i don't want to discourage from buying anything but i think if you buy things at the right time you do better than buying things at the wrong time. buy goldman up ten only if you think there's going to be a regime change. >> sounds like a man who wrote a book once called "get rich carefully" see you tonight, "d mamoney" 6:00 p.m. eastern time the s&p 500 up, 4483

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helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible. because investing isn't one size fits all. allspring. purposefully divergent. good wednesday morning and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live for you as always at post nine of the stock exchange.

david faber is on assignment this morning ahead of an interview with bob iger at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow eastern time turning to the markets this morning. a celebration on the cooler than expected inflation report. good news on inflation smallest increase in inflation since early 2021 you can see the reaction the s&p 500 is up a percent. nasdaq up 1.25%. technology is the leader in the session today. but gains in sectors like energy, real estate financials, all those sectors are up more than 1% in the early action. bonds are rallying as well we're 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're watching. have to start with activision. shares on the move after clearing a major roadblock a federal judge denying the ftc's motion for preliminary injunction to stop the deal from being completed which sets the stage for two companies to merge

as soon as this month. domino is surging on word of a partnership with uber. look at lucid under pressure today. delivering numbers remaining flat for the quarter amid competition with tesla they produced just over 2,100 vehicles at the arizona facility some wild moves in that stock lately, down more thanle%. the story of the day is going to be inflation and we'll get some fed speak later today. c c kashkari speaking now. i would say good news was the core inflation coming in better than expected. smaller than expected. below .2% month over month increase the expectation was .3%. we know the fed is watching core, strips out food and energy and it shows some real

moderation as far as some of the other numbers that the fed watches, we know the core cpi services exshelter came in .09% that was good. and also an improvement from may. core cpi services from rent was .04% compared to 2% from last month. good progress but still the year over year numbers show they're away from their target core year over year is .8% >> monthly core is actually 0.158 if you want to get that dramatic about it. and year on year headline is 297. so there's some chatter like we technically do a two handle on headline at least. >> headline, great but they're watching the core, the services if you look into the numbers at some of the areas that were the most problematic and we were all feeling and spending a lot, i just took a few, for instance, food at home, that's a grocery

proxy. we know how expensive it's non gotten at the grocery store, 0% increase from may to june. remember we were dealing with high grocery store prices in august 2022, that was the peak 13.5% increase from the prior year some of the other ones, food away from home, restaurants are more expensive .4% better. shelter on the list because we saw the decline there, that was important to see used cars had been a problem spot and we saw that that was a decline as well. so, in other words, if you're the fed and you're looking at this, probably still going july because they promised that and they're still high in inflation. will you go in september, november i think it depends on not just these numbers coming down but what we see in the jobs market, if there's signs of stress what he see in the credit market and some of the credit conditions as well that might be more important now as they move towards target on

inflation. >> meantime, bank of canada up 25 as expected we w'll see a precursor of whate might get in this country. let's get to mike santoli with this morning's take. i wonder what you found interesting. >> i found interesting we were geared and poised for a potential down side surprise there was a lot of confidence building, people who look at the numbers, saying there was real down side potential so we bought the rumor and now buying the news there was confirmation that there wasn't a lot in terms of below the line stuff you were going to get too worried about i think all it does is reinforce the path that the markets have already been on, at least psychol psychologically, which is inflation and the fed were mostly 2022 problems obviously you have to worry about both of them, there's no all clear but for the most part the trade this year has been is inflation going to come down faster than the economy erodes

that's what you've seen so far put it together with the fact that you have the credit situation that's actually looking fine you have earnings about to be reported, and this quarter by the estimates is going to be the trough in terms of year over year change. so everything working together for a market that yes, has taken a ton of credit for disinflation and earnings flattening out and the economy hitting a soft landing so i think that's all in the market at the same time, where the s&p 500 is still 6% below where it traded a year and a half ago where were we a year and a half ago? it had a smaller economy and the fed was about to hike 500 basis points i think we have july, maybe another one, 25 basis points but they're so spread out, september doesn't look like a lock and the trade today seems to have that complexion of the fed is all but done if you look at the stuff working. yields, they challenge the upper

end of the range on the 2, 5, 10, did not break through, falling fast below that. it's hard to quibble with the character of leadership and the reaction i think you can all say we've already priced it in nasdaq 40 up 40% year-to-date. how much more are you getting at the same time the rest of the market is coming along and doesn't look dirt cheap. >> two year note yield lower today, 4.7%. they're by the way basically pricing out more september so the market is thinking one and done in july september, november is still a wild card. >> which can change. you have people saying the year over year comparisons get tougher from here on out june last year was so terrible, 9% you're going to see people say there are sticky elements of it. wages are where they are and we have to loosen up the labor market more than we think. all of that is in the debate, september stays live but that's

a long ways away in market time, in terms of how we're going to trade today. >> kramer was focused on wages and i brought to his attention real hourly earnings and we ring our hands about the consumers in the second half but maybe they do create additional problems in tailwinds. >> there's the wherewithal for them to spend more for sure. i don't know if that -- if they're going to anchor to those dynamics in other words, they don't have to target the stuff that they think may be down the road causes inflation they have to say what's inflation do so you have to figure out what the trend is on the three month, six month basis, inflation looks good and i don't think it's about we have to restrain that con sburm go after certain elements of it. i think at this point the numbers can speak for themselves. >> they're still doing qt though. >> trying to let it roll off. >> it hasn't been --

>> in the last year it hasn't. >> jamie dimon thinks it is. >> one year chart, you're down 600 billion in fed balance sheet and you see the bulge after svb failed that was the uptake of the special facility stocks are up, well off those lows. >> did you make this chart to prove my theory wrong? now what we're seeing is the market going up and the balance comet comes down. >> i made the chart with the position in mind that it's one for one real time determinant of the market it's not say that we've all of a sudden started to starve the market of liquidity. what i think is it's not a direct -- you know, it's an illusion to think it's the only thing that matters or the main thing that matters -- >> until it does. >> the treasury general account after the debt ceiling, it's

gone from zero to 400 billion in five weeks and the market is up 5% in five weeks so that was going to be the big scare story. >> hasn't come from bank reserves as much. >> exactly that was foreseeable, though >> it was a risk. >> exactly. >> but it's been better. mike, thank you. mike santoli let's continue the conversation with paul mccully a professor. do the numbers change anything about what the fed is going to do >> no, they're warm and fuss superintendent numbers i agree with the commentary that mike just provided hard to add anything to what he said, he was so articulate this is the soft landing, this is what the fed is looking for, what 2 market wants to see, it doesn't change what's going to happen in two weeks, the fed is going to tighten another 25. they have to in order to put

substance to the notion that they skipped last time, they didn't pause, and they still have one more in the dot plot for the end of the year. and i think what we'll be debating every day is when is that going to happen or if it's going to happen? so i think it's a good day. >> the other thing to debate is houj do they stay at the high level of interest rates and what's it take to get them to come down? >> i think that would be a delightful debate to have. really delightful debate to have that we're going to get right, they told us they wanted to live there for a while and i think you have to have further weakness in the labor market and further disinflation and i think we're on track for, essentially, the dot plot broadly defined over the next 18 months that we're going to get a soft landing. we're actually going to get one, i think. >> are we though, paul, because

everybody, including the fed, is on alert for long and variable lags from the aggressive tightening, which doesn't that make you question the soft landing? >> not really because it turns out that the lag effect is more nasty than we anticipate, then i would anticipate the fed would ease more and quicker. i understand that, i don't like everybody agreeing with the soft landing thesis but i think it's very credible and the fed has a lot of room to make it happen they don't have to stay high as long as they think if it turns out the lags are nastier than we think. >> what about the balance sheet, paul is it going to keep going? in shrinking it? is that going to have any terrible impact on the economy act as a tightening on the markets which hasn't been too worried about it lately? >> i haven't been worried about it and i'm not worried about it now. because i think they have the

architecture in place to prevent overshooting of the shrinkage of the balance shoot and i think so far, as mike was commenting, they handled the tga replacement very, very nicely and that we have a lot of reserves in the system and we have an escape valve that we didn't have back in 2019 which is the standing re-po facility so i think it's going to go smooth so i'm actually in a warm and fuzzy mood, if you will today, about the outlook. >> you're always kind of in a warm and fuzzy mood, paul. we appreciate it thank you for coming on with the analysis especially on cpi day. paul mccully as we go to break. the road map for the rest of the hour more on what comes next for microsoft and activision as the street gets bullish on a deal. coin base up more than 150% this year. can the big run continue we'll discuss. >> inflation taking a bite out

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that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. microsoft winning the court battle against the ftc to buy activision blizzard for about $69 billion, marking the largest acquisition to date. shares trading at levels not seen since july 2021, down a bit

today on downgrades. our next guest said this is a s seminole moment. brent fill, jeffrey's tech research analyst right now has a buy on microsoft 400 target i have to say, i imagine you agree. it's very much an endorsement of microsoft's commitment and just their development team strategy in general, right? >> yeah, that's right. this is a huge win for tech across the board not just microsoft this goes back to the government basically just blocking anything, and now we're getting effectively the right thing that's being done, which is if it doesn't hurt the consumer, let it go. and so many pending transactions, the adobe deal, a number of other transactions that investors are concerned about. that's probably the most important takeaway, ma&a is back

and microsoft, the gaming business is important but what's really important is the a.i. business and commercial business we don't get that many questions on investors from gaming but i think this opens up potential opportunity for them to shore up these other areas in the enterprise that maybe they wouldn't have gone after if activision was blocked so this really opens up and lets the story breathe more at a lot of these other tech stories open up and i think a lot of small and mid cap in tech are going to be fantastic targets so great day to be an m&a banker. >> maybe that's why the russell is at the highest since february today. i do wonder what's more interesting, the pending deals that you think can see the light at the end of the tunnel or new ideas that might get off the ground to begin with >> now we have potentially broad

com, vm wear falling through, so that was a big one the third one was adobe athigma we've been saying it's good, makes sense for the consumers. so we think that eats the pathway for adobe to get that transaction done to your point i think it opens up a lot more potential transactions and again i'm not saying that everything is going to get done. we're seeing that some of the decisions where the government was blocking everything to say no, it was setting a curfew for your kids. the good kids should be able to stay out past curfew, not just a no to everything so i think this is really going to be a great moment for the tech industry. and i think ultimately you'll see more jump in on the heels of this great news for the industry. >> you think investors are already looking ahead to who

might be acquisition targets it's going to change the multiples across the space >> yes, they are i think, again, we had so much resistance, you know, they would say there's no way, brent, adobe is going to get fig ma done and everyone saying that they're rec rechecking, adobe had a strong handle that deal could still get blocked but ultimately we think it goes through. i think investors are asking who are the targets, what's next >> who are they? >> knowledge when y-- >> when you think about the next wave of what's hitting is a.i. you have already seen it you're going to see a considerable tailwind around the a.i. consolidation play, that industry is ripe for consolidation so we think it's incredible opportunity there i think if you look, it's a big

area that's going to happen. look in infrastructure software, a tremendous amount of assets that is disperret and looking to get consolidated in the next two years. >> appreciate that dramatic use yesterday we'll see how much it changes the picture for tech and your job too. let's keep the conversation going, talk about the regulatory angle here, bringing in mosel to have s-- thompson. first of all, how big of a blow is this to the ftc >> a big loss. i think they put a lot of resources into it. but i read the opinion and the opinion was thorough in two senses, the capsulation of the law and the facts, and i think they got both barrels. >> do they not understand the

law? are they trying to prove a point? >> i think it's a combination of both i think they have an idea where they want the law to go, and then they have an idea of the signal they want to send to the marketplace. unfortunately in this case they lost both. >> unfortunately for the agency? >> yes right, for the agency. on the other hand for the marketplace it does signal if there is an opportunity here to get deals done, but those deals are -- i don't expect the scrutiny to end. so it may take longer to do the deals. you i think that microsoft approached this correctly. they came out early on, defined what the deal was, and they also talked about mitigation strategies right off the bat. >> are you seeing any split in the way we think of anti-trust and, say, the europeans? there was a lot of talk for a while there would be some medicaling of the minds on the front. the is that reverting? >> i think the europeans have a

degree of skepticism about big tech, something theired by lina khan but i'm not sure the courts have blocked that skepticism in the states >> they have to fight the ftc, prepare to go to court and not everybody has the resources or stomach that microsoft has to do that. >> that's true but the ftc doesn't have unlimited resources ei either so they have to be careful of the battles they pick. one of the key things about a regulatory agency they have two strengths one is brinksging a cs and the other is the message it sends to the marketplace the ftc has been known for bringing cases and winning them. to the extent they are not winning them that sends a message to the marketplace that they are less effective. they have to think about that and what kind of cases they want to bring to establish the law

they want to because when you go to the court, you could also get a ruling that could hurt you in the future i think that's something they have to think about. >> you're a good person to ask about whether or not there's a split between leadership at the agency and staff right? can you rally the troops and say take this one on even though we have suffered a few embarrassing losses in court. >> the agency leadership and the staff like to win, okay. they're not being quite as successful now so let's see what they can do to bring that together. a good win will do that. >> you said that she wants to change the law >> yeah. i think that it's -- she's talked about this a lot and talked about going to congress, congress has not necessarily agreed with her at this stage. but at the same time she's pushing it in the public arena about where she thinks

anti-trust law should go i'm not sure the courts have caught up with her yet. >> if you're on a corporate board considering a deal, would you be more ambitious today or just as ambitious as you were, but perhaps knowing you need to go the distance you might have before >> i think i would still -- if the deal still made sense, i would pursue it. but i would recognize there would be substantial hurdles and that could change the time outlook and the pricing of the deal. >> the longer windows -- >> that's right. >> the things we've been seeing. >> that's right. but what this says, usually people think the court avenue is not the good way to go the settlement avenue is a good way to go. in this case what you're seeing is maybe the court avenue is the good way to go, takes longer but may be fruitful. >> things horizon gets approved? the pharma deal after this >> i'm not sure.

pharma is a different animal the ftc and the administration has made big tech an issue in their gun sights, maybe not as much as in other areas. >> really good to have you here. th thanks very much. do not miss bobby kotick on the closing bell today, live from sun valley's media conference a lot of questions for bobby moowand bob iger sits down torr 8:00 a.m. eastern time with david faber another interview you do not want to miss stay with us

dow up 207 meta ceo and founder mark zuckerberg making headlines this time for photos posted after a w workout with two ufc fighters everyone is talking about his muscles and how good he looks and how elon musk is screwed if they event up in the ring.

i can't believe that's where we're headed. >> we've been talking about what board members are say right now, do you want to do this is this a good idea? what positive comes out on the other side >> like threads v. twitter >> right. >> i don't know. this is like -- this would never happen with female ceos. so ridiculous. still to come, art cashen with his take on this morning's cpi print as the broader market is holding gains grsis know, it waan agesve target for the year going into the year. we're back in two.

welcome back to "squawk on the street" i'm pippa stevens. president joe biden meeting with ukraine president zelenskyy this morning at the nato summit mr. biden reaffirmed the commitment to helping ukraine in the war with russia for as long

as it takes. it came moments after he unveiled a g 7 declaration making the same pledge of support. >> all allies agree ukraine's future lies in nato. that's not a surprise to any of us, i don't think. i hope it's not a surprise to you, mr. president microsoft announced today that chinese hackers broke into email accounts of 25 organizations, including multiple government agencies, hacks started may 15th and went until june 16th. they did not disclose if the hackers were affiliated with china's government and the drawing for the power ball is tonight. tickets are $2 each, sara, best of luck in the drawing. >> all right i'll do it, thank you, pippa just over an hour into the trading day and seeing a broad

rally. s&p up and nasdaq too. every sector higher. bob, an encouraging sign for those looking to broaden out, does it get any better and sarah is right we're getting broadening out of the market, look i want to look at the major indexes. the russell 2000 one of the leaders today when is la last time you saw that happening s&p 500 we close here, using closing prices, a new 52-week high for the s&p and the nasdaq, if we close right here dow industrials is just shy of a 52-week closing high we could do it today the big thing is the broadens of the market traditional banks sell off going

into earning season, no, hold they hold. semihas been a leadership group all year practically so that's not surprising metals and mining, a group that hasn't done well energy another group not doing well, leadership group now all of a sudden. oil is over $75. consumer staples are lagging, health care is lagging let me tell you why this is good you do not want defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples on top of the leadership board when i have a soft landing scenario because those are defensive stocks you want others like cyclicals to lead, that's what's happening here so we're getting a broadening out and the soft landing scenario is coming to be new high list is not terribly expa expansive. this goes to the fact that tech stocks are dominant. we have a group of big global industries, the names i love, general electric, ingser sol, packard, carry all, fastener,

they make the stuff behind the wall, the pumps and tools that run the entire world here. the real physical manufacturing part of the global economy a smattering of other groups j.p. morgan, earnings on friday, a new 52 week high not selling off going into earnings season, master card and visa, new high a lot of airlines, delta, american, alaska, all 52-week highs. united health is reporting on friday we could close at a 52-week low friday a lot of high utilization rates in in the health care sector, specific which the group that united health is in, that's putting pressure on their numbers. right now, inflation is cooling, that's what everybody is looking for. some signs the rally is

broadening out we have seen this before and been disappointed but at least in the last few days that is happening. 2023 earnings we'll talk about this in the next week. the bottom line is they are steady there is no cliff all of a sudden earnings are going to fall down in the second half of the year but valuations are now the issue. what's happening is the prices are going up but the earnings have been stable so p.e. ratio going high depending on how you look at it, forward multiples of 19 to 20 times on the s&p 500 not only not a recession, that's expansion. that's economic expansion kind of multiples that's going to be the problem next week, let me tell you what happens. we could see companies reporting, they beat and don't move forward because of the valuation problems that's the story next week watch. we had early reporters with great numbers and the stocks don't go up. that's the problem the valuation ceiling is the discussion. >> strong set up, no doubt

bob there's a debate around earnings is this season trough earnings bank of america says yes. >> on a pure number basis, yes, are we in the $54 range? yes. the key story here is there going to be any kind of cliff in the second half of the year like mike wilson and those people were talking about there isn't any. the analysts have been steadfast not moving their second half numbers. several big strategists have and so far they've been wrong. analysts are derided as slow, dumb, stick to their knitting. cover their caterpillar and don't want to move because they want to wait until the ceo says something and they're often derided and made fun of. in this case they've been right. say nothing because they keep to their model, the micro economic models they don't cover the global

econo economy, they just cover the industries >> we'll see what happens in the next few weeks, thanks let's keep the conversation going, bringing in director of floor operations, artcashin. let's get a take on how much comfort you take in the print? >> excellent by the way, it was a gutsy call by tom lee who came on your network earlier and predicted that the number would be that low and did get a positive reaction out of the stock market i think i lean a little bit with cramer i think you want to watch wages. the teamsters ups situation, organized labor is beginning to feel its oats. and i think with the economy looking like it's not moving toward a recession, that you may get some very, very high

pressure for big jumps so i think that and the fact that, you know, the services end of inflation is not coming down. but for today, the biggest risk to the bulls is that they run out of champagne you know they have broken out, as bob pointed out, up above the 4455 level. we have some resistance around the 4500, 4520 level but i think for now, the bulls have got it right where they wanted to move it. you're seeing a lot of stocks in the various industries beginning to move above their 50-day moving averages. so bob's point about broadening out is absolutely true not omnly is the russell moving up but a big component of the russell, the regional banks are

hot as a pistol today. so that has to be encouraging for a near term look to the rally. >> when you look at the bond picture right now, do you see a reason why they should start go go lower yields, i mean, if they do, when does the market worry about that side of the equation >> i know you see my daily preopening thing and i've been writing for a couple of weeks now that we look like we might be having a double top in the ten year at 4.08, 4.10 and so far that's looking secure and i think that's giving the bond bulls a bit of hope in their -- now will that change? the real question is, what will be the reason for the change is it going to be the economy? is it going to be the resurgence of inflation i think what's going to be

important and it's always important but a little bit more this year, is jackson hole you know, we're going to get the hike in july, and before we get to the september, we're going to have the fed meeting in jackson hole and i think that could be even more important than it usually is so i'll be keeping an eye on that >> i think there's a risk, art, i know the market is not telling you this now, that there's this view on the fed that they have to keep going on inflation until they are fully convinced that we're headed back to target and there's a worry that if they stop prematurely it'll pop back up again just some comments from tom burken on the federal reserve, richmond fed president, inflation is too high, target is 2%, if you back off too soon, inflation comes back strong and requires the fed to do more.

it's a risk that the fed goes july, potentially september, has to keep going and that's not what the market is saying right now. >> no question that's not what the market is saying as usual, sara, you're spot on but i think you have to put the fed within the context that misuse of transitory has hung like an albatross around their neck so they don't want to be in a position that makes the move definitive that's why they used the word pause, they are careful. they are deathly afraid of declaring the war to be over and then have inflation surge back up again absolutely not powell has fancied himself as a modern paul v volk volker and i think it's the entire committee is that a possibility? yes. you're dealing with human

psychology but for now as i say, the champagne is flowing and the bulls are happy. the important thing is where do we close do we get to today's close with the same kind of feeling that we've had all morning. and i'll be watching that too. i'll be watching to see if they get above 45 and do they run into resistance between 45 and 4520. >> finally, art, and we'll get to the banks on friday, obviously. a lot of discussion about -- we mentioned m&a, maybe lighter touch on regulation, some indications we might be getting into a new cycle on i.p.o. do you think the banks are looking interesting here i see wells points out, post earnings they tend to underperform even though they wrap up nicely in advance. >> we had a major bump along the road in the silicon valley bank and signature and the others

and i think the political sentiment, as far as the banks and, you know, everybody is terrified. used to have 15,000 banks now down to 4,000. we don't want to be like other nations where there are five or six major banks. and, you know, the history of keeping banks open runs back more than a century in this country. they used to forbid branch banking. they wanted new banks in every location so it's -- i'm just too old. i remember all that stuff. >> art, a lot more still to come this week. good to check in with you on an important day today. art cashin. >> my pleasure >> still to come, coin base shares up triple digits. kathy woods ark invest just sold over 100,000 shares. more on what comes next for that

name after the break stay with us

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." what a comeback for coin base shares this year the street sees risk to the rally. let's get to kate rooney with the details. we were talking to dan yesterday, kate, he thinks it's a zero still. >> he's among the most opinion yated out there. but there is growing skepticism among others on wall street that the coin base run can last, especially with the challenges the company faces ahead of earnings the chart tells a rosy story up about 150% so far this year, 65% or so in the last month. part of what lit the fuse was bitcoin's recovery coin base and other crypto stocks have been a high beta play on bitcoin so when it rises or falls, coin base tends to

follow with out spot moves and coin base was named in black rock's partnership coin base has about 22% of the available shares borrowed for short selling. so about four times what you see with the average stock so a small positive headline can cause people to rush and buy back shares. and seeing cathie woods arc selling about $12 million from coin base. citing weak volume and regulation they say the risk/reward looklo looklo looksless attractive oppenheimer said fundamentals have not improved and they're caution going into trading

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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. cpi this morning definitely lower than expected, but that said, some growing warnings around the health of the consumer are beginning to circulate, especially when it comes to back-to-school later this year. courtney reagan joins us with the latest good morning, court. >> good morning, carl. while total inflation just turned in the lowest increase since march of 2021, the cost of school supplies is up 24% in the last two years, not to mention the increasing cost of education and child care in the u.s. overall, back-to-school spending is expected to fall by 10% compared to last year, a decrease of more than $3 billion in aggregate this according to a new survey by deloitte. it's the first forecasted year over year drop since 2014.

more than half of parents say they'll spend less on back-to-school because of reduced disposable income and three quarters that it's because of higher prices up sharply from last year that said the same nearly a third of parents say their financial situation worsened from last year and more than half expect the broader economy to weaken in the next six months back-to-school spending on clothing could take the biggest hit with spending expected to fall 14%, technology spend estimated to drop 13%. some of that being redirected to cover the higher cost of school supplies the good news is retailers have the opportunity to capture more sales if they offer something special. the vast majority will shop at mass merchants when they do buy, with nearly half say they'll spend most of their back-to-school dollars there, so walmart, target, followed by online retailers like amazon a third said they'll buy it offprice in dollar stores like t.j. maxx, ross, and dollar tree

the current amazon prime event will capture a good share, because its survey showed 30% of consumers plan to shop online in july, marks the top ment for back-to-school shopping, generally. >> it's such interesting results. we're all trying to figure out what's happening with consumer, because on the other hand, i mean, yes, they're dealing with speculation and sticker shock, but on the other hand, they have jobs and they feel confident in their jobs, and wage growth has been sound and we're seeing, you know, bigger events kind of spending around things like back-to-school so it should really interesting, i think, what happens, and which stores benefit >> absolutely. and very confusing, tool, when we're seeing these really strong numbers for travel and leisure, at least in some areas, i guess not at disney, but airlines reporting record numbers of passengers we're spending, but in different areas, and certainly some caution about what's to come i think that's the key from this report >> court, thanks pretty interesting deloitte report, which we'll talk about a little bit more this morning a quick reminder, as we kick off

another hour of "squawk on the street," don't miss david's big son valley interview with bob iger tomorrow. 8:00 a.m. eastern time lots to talk about with iger regarding disney, itself, and the media business at large. bulls hanging on to the football here dow up 280 "squawk on the street" continues after this conventional thinking delivers conventional results. at allspring, we break away with purpose. harnessing data-driven insights and boundless curiosity. we dissect the market from every angle. helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible. because investing isn't one size fits all. allspring. purposefully divergent. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them.

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good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. on the agenda today, pimco's tiffany wilding is with us why she says the second half of the year will prove to be very different than first and why credit may be your best bet going forward. >> plus, house financial services committee ranking member, maxine waters joins us the house kicking off a hearing on esg investing today, and what could be a contentious fight even black rock's larry fink says the term esg has been weaponized in congress and later on, why amazon prime day is not exciting one veteran. it is a celebration of the weaker inflation, softer inflation read than what was expected, and that than what