welcome to "power lunch. stocks rallying today after the cpi report backs up the hope that the fed won't have to hike much more. we're about to get the latest beige book on the fed. will it supply more support to a

goldilocks economy and chinese hackers reaching the e-mail accounts of u.s. government officials microsoft and the government have been scrambling to assess the damage we'll get much more on the cyber attack coming up first, let's get a check on the markets. stocks are up 134. the dow is about 200 points off session highs. this rally after the inflation report has tech leading the way as bond leads fall and the small cap is doing well today. and video shares are rising again. 3% today and 200% so far this year they're reportedly in talks to be an anchor investor in if a.r.m. ipo the goal is for models of drug recovery we have an 81% of rxrx shares today. check out shares of dominos which are jumping after they signed a deal with uber. customers can order dominos on uber and leading the nasdaq. uber, only up half a percent >> lots of reasons for some

investors to be happy. we start with a key read on the economy. the beige book will be out momentarily. but the markets getting a boost from better-than-expected inflation data this morning. cpi gained 0.2% month over month in june, up from the 0.1% increase in may. but below expectations let's bring in chief u.s. economist at jpmorgan and rick santelli is with us. what is the most interesting number getting beneath the surface on a cpi you think and the one that has investors here most excited >> the core number came in a low side, 0.2. and when you look at the details there, it was a broad based slowing. when you strip out components, we're near two-year lows, let's say.

overall, it wasn't dominated by one factor, like used vehicles or some kind of quirky factor like that. that's probably something that is giving encouragement to people as they look at the inflation outlook. bear in mind, it is one report but it definitely is a move in the right direction. >> what's got your eye in the bond market reaction >> i believe that was the low. but what caught my eye was the year-over-years. at the headline year-over-year, 3%, down 67% from its high water mark, 9.1% in june of '22. 12-consecutive months has moved lower down 67% if you look at year-over-year core, a different scenario it's down 27%. 6.6 was its high water mark in september.

nine months there. and it's been down eight of nine months that's the sticky part that is going to be the linchpin with respect to what the fed may or may not do with rates. they keep coming down. and the central bank should be cognizant of the fact that if they wait one year and look at inflation rates against an aggressive move against the fed keep tightening, they will have passed up the rate of inflation with their overnight rate. >> one of the things i find interesting was that inflation was transitory the fed had to hike rates to make it so >> transitory would be a long period now one thick i think you can say, maybe in that defense, is that we've achieve d a decent inflation, the numbers that rick pointed out, without pain in terms of unemployment.

it required an aggressive move by the fed you're seeing, for a couple innings on the disinflation process. i think transitory is a word that probably should stay locked in the chest there's some things here that are consistent with that narrative from a few years ago >> the reason i press is to say if the central bank took a bigger break here and stopped hiking rates, they might say, hey, this did go better than expected we haven't seen a huge increase in unemployment. but the longer they go, the more they will push, don't you think? >> obviously, this didn't just happen i would expect they will stay vigilant here. this is one report

and it beats the run rate. i don't think anyone is going to look at this and say mission accomplished two weeks from today, they will stay at it >> do we have to give the fed credit this is what they were trying to do we haven't achieved the soft landing yet. there's so many voices saying, the fed doesn't know what they're doing. 375 -- it's four basis point hikes. yet, here we are >> where are we? my kids have to take a 7% mortgage, as opposed to a 2.5% mortgage no pain there. they can't afford the same house they could precovid. no pain there. the fact of the matter is, that the reason that we have a sticky core is the fed left interest rates so low and manipulated mortgage rates so low for so

long, they have people trapped in houses they don't want to sell at a time we didn't build enough houses. the reason they need to tighten is shelter is a bit hard to fathom there's a conundrum there. not to mention commercial real estate you want to talk about soft landing, the interpretation is transitory i think there's a lot more pain when i go walking down michigan avenue or lasalle street and see most of the bills half-empty >> mike? >> there's a lot to unpack there. a lot of the things are unrelated to monetary policy what's happening in downtown office space -- i think what's happening in downtown office space, in some cities, i wouldn't pin that on the fed i think the fed was late to get

going here particularly in '21. had they gone six months earlier, i'm not sure the landscape would be entirely different. >> if they wanted half-speed, the counterfactual is, like kelly said, they, by raising rates, they made rates and inflation rates move lower if it was caused by covid, if the fed raised rates half as much, we might be here there's no way to know the credit condition slowing is normally a function for some of the issues we had like supply chain. >> i didn't think you would give them a ton of credit but we didn't end up with the worst-case scenarios that so many predicted the fed will never figure out their way out of it. soft landings never happen >> "c" minus >> are you rating on performance

or the point they had to start hiking i don't know >> i would say overall performance, postcovid "c" minus. >> i was going to ask hook let's go to eamon. >> what the fed is saying in the beige book overall activity increased slightly since late may. overall economic activity increased slightly since late may. reports on consumer spending was mixed. growth was observed in what they call consumer services some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending. tourism and travel activity was robust and hospitality contacts expected a busy summer season. manufacturing activity edged up in half of the districts and declined in the other half of the districts. a wash there transportation activity was down or flat in most districts. banking conditions, mostly subdued, as lending activity continued to soften. des

despite mortgage rates, demand is steady. overall economic expectations for the coming months, called for slow growth. in the labor markets, labor demand remained healthy. some contacts that prices increased at a modest pace overall. price expectations stable or lower over the next several months, as people were looking ahead. guys, back to you. >> it's tough to get a lot of headlines out of the beige look. would you say overall, the cooling economy? fine economy pockets of strength economy? >> sounded like a cooling economy when you summarized all of this. the one silver lining, they talk about modest pace overall. and the expectations for prices were generally stable or lower over the next several months that gives you a sense it may be inflation, or the expectation for inflation, moderating as we go forward

they talk about hiring being more targeted and selective, that is a robust jobs market but maybe slightly less than we've had. >> you could argue another arrow in the quiver. should we let santoli another question they're gone another arrow in the quiver. >> we called this goldilocks scenario it's actually baby bear's. goldly lock's stole it the one in the middle. >> the other one said why did she steal from the momma bear? why did she steal from the baby bear whose was the porj that she would find most satisfying we'll take with the inflation report diving where food and ingredient costs than any other than famed

chef marcus samuelsson his support for black-owned businesses and more. "power lunch" will be right back i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

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welcome back to "power lunch. today's read on inflation was lighter than expected. but many restaurants are gapling with high food costs at the same time when consumers are cutting back on dining out flour, bread, sugar and salad dressing are pricey, up about 10% compared to last year. there's some relief in the cost of eggs in particular. bacon, milk, they're all down. my next guest owns 12 restaurants overall, including red rooster and let's bring in marcus samuelsson. welcome. >> thank you very much for having me. >> we could have asked you about the food inflation and the rest of it. >> yeah. it's been a tough ride, after

post-covid the change in consumer and customers' behavior. we're fortunate for our restaurants. actually, there's been opportunities that we grab some of the opportunities and we're able to grow, as well. it's a tough market. also, i see a lot of potential for growth, as well. >> you have a lot of geographic diversity. your newer restaurant in newark, new jersey, is close to me you got red rooster and opened up a location in chelsea newark was always up and coming, maybe struggling manhattan is manhattan how are they doing >> a place like newark, it's a little different people are still not coming back we have three or four major office there's when the offices are 30% filled,

people are working mostly at home, it impacts a community like downtown newark a lot manhattan is always strong and resilient. people are working maybe 40% from home. and there's tourists and other peoplemanhattan. the chelsea restaurant, we're doing well it's about helping others in our community. for me, i'm fortunate with my restaurant as a black chef, and a black person in this space, i see a lot in terms of my colleagues. a lot of young chefs and minority-owned businesses, want to start and it's difficult to get access to capital how can i be an ally and how can i come up with products to help that? >> you mentioned that during the pandemic, you were

opportunistic. what does that mean? and is there anything as we see anything in office, and changing patterns, what do you think is the next real area of opportunity in your space? >> we were really thinking about what would growth look like? and land roads came to the table in a way they hadn't done before it chaenged the demographic of what growth can look like. you can grow in a way that prepandemic was difficult because property was just filled and that changed during the pandemic still, you see, there's a lot of open spaces, not just in manhattan, but all urban areas >> let's talk about access to capital and the road to that your brand, your reputation as a top-level chef how did that help you to open up

a chelsea location, a tough real estate market. how can you and do you use your reputation and resources to help some of those minority chefs who don't have access? >> your restaurant has to be great and people have to enjoy it return to the investors. you have to have great bank statements, if you do to a lender like a bank or private equity your bottom line has to make sense. what you do in the restaurant, the culture of people to work for you. you create a chommunity, where the bottom line makes sense and guests want to dom back. going out is a luxury. we have to build experiences we started with jay norris really looking at how can we

break down the barriers for minority-owned businesses. how do we create the particular platform that it's easier to work together. having flexible leases you know, when most food trends, you hear about them maybe online you go to a pop-up maybe you experience it through a food truck going from that to a real restaurant, to a bigger stake, it's a big step. just because you have a successful food truck does not mean you can sign a ten-year lease. and the property owner doesn't know in the space about these incredible talents having access to the talent, knowing the property owners, really came up with here at the open doors initiative is a platform where both parties come to the table and landlords can

have flexible leasing structure. that's how a small brand can be an iconic brand, ala shake shack. >> or think of hello, guys the food truck and now it's everywhere you mentioned the cost of the dining out experience. have we reached the limit of what consumers are willing to take are people accepting a higher price? where are we >> pricing is important. it's about creating and going out has to be an experience. if i provide an experience to you, you might not go out four times a month. if we create an experience, you will come back we have to create an experience that matches guest expectation >> do you have the labor force for that is that getting easier >> i'm an immigrant. nothing is easy.

you can't be an entrepreneur if you think it's going to be easy. that's a challenge i love the labor market right now. it forces us as chef to create a great culture, where people want to come and work for you if you don't create a great working environment, you're not going to get access to the best staff. >> marcus, great having you. let me take you out to dinner but you pick the place >> i know a place in chelsea easy you think a chef looks for anything easy? >> no. i can't cook for my household. >> all right >> marcus, thank you the fight for cyber control never seems to be easing microsoft revealing a chinese hack on government e-mails that went unnoticed for a month details, next.

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thing about this hack is it went undetected for a month discuss the significance of this hack the state department addressing this today it went undetected for a month but a lot of times the hackers lie low for a while before getting active is that what happened here >> we don't know when it's detected, you have to go back in time to find out when the intrusion started to find out how much of a window the hackers had to get e-mail. it was a vulnerability in microsoft. it affected 25 organizations, including they're saying, government organizations the state department did put out a statement. the department of state, detected anonymous activity. and they're going to respond to activity we don't know what the scale and scope of this espionage activity

allegedly by the chinese government was here. we're getting additional insight. that's coming from christopher wray, the fbi director he addressed a concern that he raised with me in a while ago, in a conversation we had, about the pressure that the chinese government is putting on american corporations to include chinese communist party cells inside their own firms listen to what chris wray just said about this. >> any company, of any size in china, is required by chinese law, to have what they quaintly call a committee eve essentially a cell, inside the

company, whose sole function is making sure that company's compliance with chinese orthodoxy. >> there's a concern that some of the party cells had been relatively benign. now, they are being used to assert more control over the internal operational-type things inside some of the companies not necessarily all of them. a lot of pressure coming from a lot of different directions from china. >> stay with us. kevin, anything surprising about what we know so far about this hack if you have stolen the credentials to access a system, your activity in an odd place or odd pattern is going to raise alarms >> i can tell you, first looking at this, the first time i responded to china espionage was in 1996, and since then, we've been responding to it on a daily

basis. what we're seeing is the evolution of chinese cyber espionage. gone are the days when there's a tank through the cornfield and every time we did our quincy forensics to find out what happened and what to do about it, we could see everything in plain sight. the offset has improved now. the innovation -- i can share with you this. last year, there were 55 attacks that did not have a patch. and they were going to work. china led the world in discovering these zero days. and using them this is like s.e.a.l. team six here there's not a lot of detail. there's nothing that cyber security professionals can do right now. it was conducted by a group that can innovate

microsoft is taking steps to mitigate the growth and steps of this thing this is not someone coming through the front door this is an intentional act by a nation that's modernized its capability in the cyberspace father than any other nation in the last 12 months >> you threw out a spy term there. operational security that's the degree of carefulness that the chinese took in deploying this i wonder how long it will take u.s. agencies to learn how badly they were hacked here. it's early days now in figuring out what happened.

will it take them longer now >> i can only speculate from the outside looking in i will do that when e-mail is the target, your damage assessment is really good you know what e-mail has been taken. it's more probable than not. we have a good view. i think it will be what is the assumption and how can it be used >> you got to know if janet yellen brought this up eamon, kevin, thank you. let's get to courtney for the cnbc news update as the two-day nato summit in lithuania comes to a close, two senators are reaching across the aisle to make sure the united states never leaves the military alliance. tim kane and marco rubio reintroduced a bill that would require an act of congress or senate approval for the u.s. to

withdraw a cluster of southern california homes is under threat from a large landslide residents in 12 homes say they started to notice cracks in the earth and their homes this weekend and were only given 20 minutes to get out since then, another ten homes in the city of rolling hills starting sliding it's not clear what caused the landslide yet. and lionel messi is expected to make his mls debut later this month. fans showed up to share their excitement and the city unveiled a new messi mural. ticket prices were soaring by more than 1,000% i've seen one professional soccer game outside of the united states. and it was in barcelona. and messi scored three goals it was exciting. kelly, back over to you. >> a messi mural

bitcoin payback. some expecting a move towards 32 it comes as long-awaited bitcoin could be approved. we'll discuss with strikes jack is next

welcome back to "power lunch. is bitcoin the inflation hedge crypto crossing the inflation mark as it appears to be cooling. but the s.e.c. may approve the first bts. jack, good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. how are you? >> bitcoin has surprised people with resilience. are you a fan of all of the etfs they are trying to launch? >> of course i am. uncle larry, pump my bags. in all seriousness, things like time, pressure medals, direcdi collectibles, are valuable because they are scarce. bitcoin is an asset that is in the class of things like gold.

things like antique ark and things like time it's scarce. i think it will rally no matter what environment it's in because it's scarcer than all other assets on the planet it doesn't surprise me that someone wants to get involved. >> it hasn't rally in every environment, though. every year, every quarter, brings a different set of explanations for what causes bitcoin to move. is there any unified explanation? or is it like, you believe or you don't? >> bitcoin is about supply and demand i would say it has rallied every environment. it's the highest performing asset. if you take a step back and look at its performance, all it's done is go up to the right

>> that's hard to swallow at 60.65. >> ask silicon valley how hard it was to swallow high interest rates. you live in an era of monetary policy, since 1971, is the central bank creates money out of thin air. and shrinks liquidity. boom and bust in the economy higher inflation in the emerging markets. and record inflation in the u.s. that's not bitcoin's problem if you average bitcoin out if you take a zoom out and look to hold and accrue wealth, that's done in real estate recently it's been in apple stock. it's done a tremendous job

it cannot solve the volatile what we have to go through in interest rate rises. there's nothing that bitcoin can do about that. it can appreciation. it's done a phenomenal job at. bitcoin at $30,000 is a tremendous achievement for the asset class. and we're on the cusp. this is a huge deal. i don't know anyone that has an issue with that. >> you've seen all of the memes. on the one hand, we're cracking down on every platform it's a usual confusing. >> i've called at coins an arbitrage on the trend these are arbitraging the regulatory uncertainty and the knowledge. people don't understand bitcoin. people don't understand this asset class. there was an opportunity to create the faster bitcoin.

or the pink bitcoin. and was there wasn't proper regulation, you can issue a lot yourself like spf and scamming people now, you see proper regulation, that there's a commodity and a version of gold. and regulators are trying to understand, how do we regulate what is violent levels of crime and fraud? so, i don't think it has anything to do with bitcoin. if anything, is a net add. you're just a technology trend trader if you're following to innovate through technology and add a net product to humanity, this is another one. we took energy and we built airplanes. we took energy and we built television, radio, the internet, the lightbulb. now, we did it with money.

wash out all of the garbage. it will be known as the computer science and information it is. >> jack, we'll leave it there. thank you for your time. >> good to see you, jack coming up, the working lunch looks at a company that offers firms insight into dealmaking by analyzing sales calls and team conversations. we'll be right back. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

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welcome back a pressing question from businesses is how to use their own data to improve performance. in today's "working lunch" let's get up close with a $7 billion valuation at the peak by helping customers connect the dots gong's co-founder grew up in israel where he dreamed of being a lead guitarist in a rock band. he started to pay attention to computers in the '90s and on a whim, applied for the computer science program at tel aviv

university he became a programmer >> if i stayed, to this day, selling, it would have been just fine it's a job right? i had a desire in me to want more >> why >> i was dreaming. i told you, as a child, dreaming about, you know, sounds like mania, but julius caesar and big empires and the inventors. i cannot -- i had bigger dreams and i read a lot and i felt at some point at first, i'm not going to be amazing at guitar. and it's not a day job not a small country. now, he will pull data from more sources including date from on

the web and third party industry data and a company's own proprietary insights all of that can craft a pitch to make a sale. >> there's instent data. you can listen to the last earnings calls did they have a security breach? or they posted something on social that data is important the ability to use it in the right context and personalize it is key i think there's room for data play we're reinvesting. you need to combine publicly available data third party data and first party data gong sits on trillions of transactions and interactions. all this trains a model to be more effective >> that's the idea with the company launched last month.

and it acts as an a.i. assistant. letting teams to know what to follow up on it crafts responses, too this is the soup where the early use cases for artificial intelligence are evolving. getting sets together and seeing if it can make our company's performance better >> if i were a company, i would be both excited and my head would be spin right now. how do you find the different providers rushing into the space. you have to stick it out for a little while, train your workforce. and there's stickiness to transfer to another. they're new. they don't have a long list of clients to go on it's an exciting time to be a provider of this technology. and an overwhelming time to be an economy >> it is and cfos want to deal with fewer vendors.

that's why you see consolidation in these areas particularly in data you saw data bricks making a buy. if you're a smaller start-up with really good technology, your go-to-market isn't developed. there's only so much attention that the cf os are going to spend. >> i think about salesforce or the cloud perlatforms and the a.i. is at the risk of being monetized and something so many people can offer. setting yourself apart, i think it will be difficult >> gong is a good size they're one of the potential acquirers in the space, versus being acquired >> one to watch. still to come, t.j. excellent checks a round of store checks to see how retailers are doing. and they say tjx is the ar ostf the show we'll trade that name in "star lunch. woah. ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back time for "three stock lunch. today we're starting with draftkings, up 5%. bank of america says they're near an inflection point and could rally another 20%.

does our trader agree? we're joined by jay woods today. it's been ages great to have you here welcome. >> great to be here. good to see you, kelly. >> let's get to it what do you think about the stock? >> we're talking on a day where the four major sports is not having any games, but the stock has been on a tear long term, this stock, 2022, we want to put it in the rear-view miro it's turned around 2 brought out when it gap above 22 it had a nice gap today. the near-term investors may want to take some profits i think it has an up side, and then a bit of a pause. for the long-term play, they had profit at quarters four times in a row, the first four times since going public via spac. i think the story says is

still -- told. i love it long term. >> jay, good to see you. also on an upgrade tjx company, ultimate bargain hunter stock recent checks give it confidence, also adjusted the price target from $75 to $95 what do you think, jay >> i saw courtney regan talking about it early i have to agree with the upgrade. the stock looks great. year to date slightly underperformed, but year to day, 52 weeks ago, it's gone up 47%. where was it the strongest at the end of the year it just broke out. it broke above 82. it looks like to me it has the ability to run higher. i think the stock could run at

95, but if it breaks out below 82, i probably would get out and minimize my loss >> they're saying estimates are too high on this one. >> i don't have a lot of great things to say about cisco. cisco has added 1.16% to the dow over that period of time, so it really happen been that leader that we look for over the year term, if you bought in 2018, congratulations, utes en. it's not one of the stocks that tends to move. i think there's better places to put your money to work yeah, cisco is something i would pas on and go straight to dessert. >> jay, thank you. we'll let you go and get that new york jay woods at the new york stock exchange. closing time is next

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specifically warn it will be a bad back-to-school season. maybe some people are pulling them forward, maybe get a -- or three shirts instead of four >> all right ubs says shares of netflix could jump 20%, as they anticipate a rosy forecast. laura martin thinking they may get a boost from the writers strike if they weren't paying in the near term? >> and maybe, you know, the big continues to get bigger. if you know there's something you want to watch, plus this advertising strategy. >> are you a netflix subscriber? >> i am. i thought so does musk want to

reconsider zuckerberg's training, he posted the pictures. >> can we show -- okay all right. well, i told you -- there it is. >> wait. >> you can't zoom in on the abs, but i know he's taller and everything, but we had the yacht picture with elon and the ufc picture with musk. just don't do that. >> it would be future for society if this happens. elon musk starting another company, xai, understanding the true nature of the university. we expect to learn more in the twitter spaces on friday the nature of the university is not 12 men and zero women, though. >> we have a lot to learn. there's been no details.

is it another distraction tactic have they fixed the twitter thing. >> people not joining? no, they have not. >> i keep trying with threads, but i just can't. >> but it's growing. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. \s welcome to "closing bell." i'm mock santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break number starts with as bond yield sinks, the dollar slides, and fed tightening comes into view we'll unpack today's market action plus, activision bobby kotick that is coming up shortly. inflation in retreat leaving the bulls in charge.