tactic have they fixed the twitter thing. >> people not joining? no, they have not. >> i keep trying with threads, but i just can't. >> but it's growing. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. \s welcome to "closing bell." i'm mock santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break number starts with as bond yield sinks, the dollar slides, and fed tightening comes into view we'll unpack today's market action plus, activision bobby kotick that is coming up shortly. inflation in retreat leaving the bulls in charge.

a.j., thanks for coming in. >> good to see you we have economic numbers coming in better than expected, the market seems comfortable with maybe one more view on the fed, do you view this as a green light to take more risk, or how would you be approaching it? >> i think part of it is maybe it's too soon to declare victory just yet it's the lowest since march of 2021 since we've seen more narrow leadership in the s&p performance, we expected it to broaden out more we like equal weighted s&p right now. whether inflation continues to come down, i think it's in the right past, disinflation in the super-core services as well as core services coming in a lot better, but we expect low

volatility later in the year, because the recession still lingers out there. >> yeah, let's get to the idea that a recession is perhaps hovering out there it seems if the market is trying to move on from last year's villains, which would be inflation and what the fed had to do to fight inflation, now it's concerned about u.s. growth, global growth, but maybe more optimistic on that front. do you think it's wrong to be optimistic >> no, i think it's good to be optimistic, but we still need to take into consideration there will be a slowdown we expect a contraction as well. i don't think we'll see the contraction that the market has priced in. we believe it's closer to maybe down negative 3% the consumer has been resilient, but the fed will be holding higher for longer. i don't know if that's been priced in as much. the softest landing is still

very much in play. it's possible that any recession we see may not be as long as maybe the market has originally anticipated. maybe an odd type of recession based on what we can view right here people are on talking about earnings estimate will be beat again, but maybe s&p is worth new money as a catch-up trade. we've seen some of that in the last month in fact, just saw numbers that inflowing into equal-weight etfs have been pretty strong. are you encouraged or do you think we still have an unbalanced market? >> i'm encouraged, but there's other opportunities out there. i know they don't get a lot of love from investors, but if you look at the last three recessions early cycle, and to be better in the 2024, seeing

some broadening is a good sign, i think, and we think foreign markets and for investors, it's a possible for the markets to press higher, you know, as they move on throughout the rest of the year the idea that by the end of this year we'll still be perhaps on recession watch, i mean, we're running out year to some degree. five months left after the next couple weeks i wonder what you they will tip us in that direction simply rates have been higher longer, or is there something else >> they're trying to show or see some cooling in the labor market that adp print we got last year

was a bit of a splash, a bit of an anomaly, but if you look at the jolts data, that quits rate was elevated that's not endemic of cooling, but a still-tight market i think 88,000 is when they typically pause. we have a strong labor market. it's not necessarily that we need to see, you know, some shocks to the system, but there is a slowing economy that will have an impact. >> that's a fair point no way the fed is interested in rushing to make the all-clear signal they'll have to stay in the game to some degree the dollar is sliding, as you mentioned earlier. the market is taking away rate hike expectations. what does that mean, if anything, for global investing, from your perspective?

>> we've been talking about this for some time. we've been bullish on european equities as well as chinese equities the valuation entry point for both is very attractive. they're trading at a deep discount to the u.s. that dollar creates a great tailwind for investors on the domestic side going overseas to using euros to invest and such so there's an attractive entry point, but you'll get the boost from the dollar weakening. obviously expectations that the fed may not have to hike as expected, it's a good sort of tailwind for the dollar and for investors looking overseas a.j., let's bring in britain ta - bryn talkington. that scare last week was an interesting moment for everybody to stop and say, do we have to

start worrying again today's number feels as if it was a fleeting fight we got. where does it leave you? is it a green light of sorts >> well, it's been a agree light. i think this week was important because, as we started the week, obviously the two year was bumping up a bit over 5% the ten-year around 4% i didn't think the economic data was going to be strong enough to keep above that 5% and 4%. i will say this, though. on the cpi data, i think investors need to know, if you look at the month-over-month returns going back since may of last year, we've been really lucky. in may of last year we had a 0.9. june we had a 1.2. those have all dropped off those are one of the main reasons we've seen cpi come done

so markedly, which has been bullish. we've seen over the past few weeks that broadening out, which we have all talked about quite a bit. i think you can continue to have a summer rally, where i'm thinking about later on in the year is that i think that, because we have dropped off those big inflation numbers, those worn be a concern over the next two months, but later on in the year, if we continue to get a 0.3, a 0.2, maybe a 0.4 here or there, that's nowhere near 2. i think that would be a fourth quarter ballots to fight, but in the short term, i think the animal spirits will remain high. i also think earnings won't be, as many have said, as poor as feared >> this always happens as soon as people get comfortable we're in an up trend, and a rally that seems like it's breaking out, people start to ask, okay, have we

already priced in too much have we already gotten overheated you mentioned some of the lower quality, higher beta, more aggressive stocks really start to whistle higher. does 1/2 any of that concern you, bryn? >> everything obviously concerned me at the end of the summer we have the jackson hole you definitely see the animal spirits in some of these smaller names, but i think earnings will be a gut check i think terrence matter, especially in the a.i. space how much was it marketing versus monetization i think it's too early to get a read on monetization, but i think some of the hype that to me feel bubblier, as it relates to a.i., the proof is in the pudding, with a trajectory to monetize, not just talk about

it. >> a.j., what are you thinking about in terms of talking to clients and advising them on what to expect it didn't seem like we got the real flush, we didn't reload the forward return of the capacity of this market now we're a good deal higher, 25% or so. stocks don't look expensive in aggregate. what do you think in terms of what there is to expect? >> yeah, i think to your point, valuations do seem frothy, right? i think the yield on the ten year and investment-grade points, that's an attractive entry point. everyone saw yields back up last week, but seeing them come down today, inflation coming down as w well, that's a great entry

point. you can also diversify and allocate to your investment-grade core bonds as well if the economy starts to slow and the labor market -- maybe the unemployment is higher than the market is priced all >> bryn, are there area that have become newly on your screen that seem like they have the potential to move? you have energy up 4%. some other things have started to kick up to the up side. >> we have an overweight and big positions in energy and materials -- you want to continue to see that breadth we have to have china to have goods in to go higher in the longer term, but within energy, the free cash flow yield of

these companies continue to get higher they can make a ton of money in 65, 75, of course higher oil prices, so i think people are still underexposed to that a lot of hedge funds were short energy materials as they companies' earns come out. i think the free cash flow will bring investors back to the space. >> a.j., to wind things up, in terms of the fed and whether it even matters, you know, you look back and the s&p 500 was a few hundred point high are a year and a half ago before the fed raised 500 basis points. the market is higher than before the first hike how much does the next 25 or 50 basis points matter? or do you think that would be the final turn of the screw that the economy can't ham? >> i think a lot of it is priced in right now so, i don't think that's really

what the market is concerned about. i think it's a surprise we don't know i think what we really want to know is, is a hawkish tone going to change? the rhetoric has been the hawk sir pause. they seems like a bit of dissent on whether they even wanted to raise in june. so it's a big question of what would be the conversation coming out. will the cpi print by enough to consider we think they're close, if not there, it's about time they pause in restrictive territory. >> one of the issues causing people to lean on the fed to be more dovish, was the idea of this credit tightening, we hadn't seen the impact that doesn't seem as if it's something that's under stress right now. >> no. you've seen private credit step into the market. in march, obviously, there was a

big of a concern of discretion, and ultimately 9 on% of the growth was in small and regional banks. so obviously at -- but private credit that is stepped in and helped out with any sort of void that was left by some of the banks being more restrictive in that space that's the oxygen of the markets is lending, but i think, you know, we still have resilience, pmi service is still very strong, consumer is still strong, so the point is how much further will the fed go? >> yeah, another thing on the list of things we had to be worried about, which turned out not immediately, anyway. a.j., thanks bryn, we'll see you in a bit the twitter question of the day -- after cpi report, what will the fed do? hold rates steady? hike or even cut

go to twitter to vote. we'll share the results later. now a check on top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos is here with all of that hi. >> let's talk about domino's pizza. it's looking to spice up its delivery, launching a partnership in four pilot markets in the united states this fall, across the country by year end, and eventually internationally. this is a big change, since the company has long avoided using third-party delivery apps in the u.s. chinese tech names, they are higher in the hopes that the years-long crackdown on the sector is over the nation's top economic planner and other government officials met with several senior executives from large tech companies, not showing

china's change of tone kristina, thank you. we're just getting started here up next we're headed out to sun valley bobby kotick joins us. hi first tame on the move, that's after this break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. there are currently more than 750,000 unfilled cybersecurity jobs in the u.s. the google cybersecurity certificate was made to fill that gap and help grow the workforce that's keeping us all safe. i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost.

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welcome back to "closing bell." microsoft's deal to buy activision blizzard overcoming a major hurdle let's get to bobby kotick, sitting down with julia boorstin in sun valley for a first on cnbc exclusive. >> reporter: that's right, mike. we're so grateful to have bobby k optick we just got this ruling from the judge yesterday. a big move to clear the way before this deal to close. what is your response to the judge's rule yesterday >> i think the judge was very sensible, she was very deliberate, um, clearly understood the details of the case, the law, and made a judgment based on facts and law, and wasn't swayed by ideology. >> so this deal is still far from done, though. that was a big hurdle, but the

ftc could still appeal before the deadline of friday night at midnight this appeal could come through anytime before then. they could request a stay on the deal what happens if the ftc does that >> i would be surprised if they waste taxpayer resources on something like that. the opinion was well written like i said, she's a very deliberate judge i can't imagine the ninth circuit would grant the stay you never know, but i would think it would be highly unlikely and just wouldn't be pro productive. >> reporter: we're hearing they're leaning toward an appeal >> i can't imagine the ninth circuit would grant a stay. >> reporter: you're still working with the regulators in the uk there is some discussion back and forth between microsoft and

the cma, saying they're considering finding some sort of compromise what would you think would be a practical compromise are there certain divestitures or compromises or actions that microsoft could take to get the deal through >> look, there's enormous compe competition, you know, xbox is the third-place competent store in the console business. nintendo and sony have had dominance in the business for almost as long as you've been in the business in the cloud, there's nothing but competition, whether it's tencent or alibaba or google, amazon, apple, netflix or our acal there's so many different competitors. they don't really need to be -- there's nothing we need to be doing that's going to encourage

more competition this transaction is an opportunity for you and microsoft together to actually be able to compete against these entrenched examiner -- competitors. >> microsoft's ceo is here as well what is your sense of what microsoft has to do to get this through the uk >> you know, i think these conferences are ongoing, but we came to a great agreement with the eu that was sensible and responsible, and i think was, you know, was well thought through. so we have already come up with remedies that make a lot of sense and that work well in the eu we have unconditional approval from china, unconditional approval from japan. both places where you have most successful competitors in video gaming >> reporter: while we await to

hear what microsoft ends up proposing with the cma, i want to get your sense of what's going on with the business i know a lot of attention has been spent on getting this deal done, but there's also a question of economic uncertainty, and how that could be impacting the video game big, either casual or video gaming. what are you seeing from consumers right now? >> there's always a belief in a recession or difficult economic times, video games as an industry does better i think there's not necessarily supportable data to that effect. i think you've seen console releases that happened to come at the same time as recessions, new games have come out, but business is good we just launched diablo 4, which is the most successful blizzard launch ever.

candy crush is at record numbers, call of duty is a great franchise that's evolving into not historically what it's been, but now offers free to play. mobile gaming has been transformative in our industry more people in more places than ever before, having access to video games. i think that the there's going to be nothing but opportunity in video games. >> mike santoli, want to jump in here and can mr. kotick questions? >> sure. it's good to see you microsoft, in attempting to get this deal through, has offered assurances there will be nothing like exclusivity on their platform or anything of the sort, so in that calls, what are the advantages where will it be a better competitor what kinds of things will you be able to do as part of that company? >> look, one of the great things about the business combination

is, microsoft as a console manufacturing, doesn't have the same advantages that sony and nintendo have with deep, rich libraries of intellectual property they don't have a movie studio they don't have a tv studio. they don't have a music company. they don't have 40 years of franchise success with mario and so with a company like ours, they get three franchises, candy crush, call of duty, warcraft. we have access to better technology, more talent, and in a world that's increasingly competitive where you have so many people entering the video game industry, it gives us an opportunity to have access to more resources i think on a combined basis, it gives us a chance to more effectively compete. that suggests that some of that competent at this time would be

going to like studio, intellectual property, and games as vehicles for media content? >> well, that's a pretty difficult thing to do, but i think we want to make sure that our games are on more platforms. mobile has a big push for us across the games we make we have games that we have aspirations to be franchises that, having access to more technical talent will give us the opportunity to do. i think as a.i. becomes more important in gaming, versus access to a.i. and machine learning talent will be increasingly important data analytics, user experience. you know, microsoft is principally an enterprise company. our hope is to attract from the enterprise business, which is a fun industry

act i have i countersued california side of rights department, there was the suit, the counter-suit, what is the state of those negotiations in and out? >> we already settled a lock time ago with the eeoc we released a transparency report, that showed we've made great strides in building a welcoming workplace. we do have any pay equity issues we have publicly disclosed our pay equity it's been something that we have always taken very seriously. so when it comes to promotions and pay equity, that information is public ly showing that we pay people fairly. i have to ask about china. what is the state of the relationship with your former partners in china, future partners what will be the future of

activision blizzard's business in china >> we view china as a great opportunity, and we've had a great partnership with tencent for a long time now. they've got a great both investor and partner they've got a great commercial partner. we're in the process now of finding a new partner for the blizzard content i think we're making sure our players have access to all the blizzard games. >> reporter: we appreciate you joining us in the midst of all this news. mike, i'm going to send it back over to you. julia, thanks so much. coming up, treasury yields tumbling on the back of today's crucial cpi data, but our next guest is still finding opportunities in fixed income. he will explain after this break.

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bond yields are falling after today's cooler than expected cpi report, but our next guest is still finding alternatives brian, good to see you your read seems very clear in its ver it may be a more benign fed what's your read mike, i think that's right if you go back to the end of the year the fed said, it's going to slow down, it will be okay so, yeah, i'll go again here they're trying to calibration.

>> it field like they're going to go again and try to find a pause. in that case, we still have a garly deal le that's short-term yields what economic scenario are you see seeming oinchs i think the yield curve should continue to dis-invert how does that play out the first half of the year was about growth surprising high i think the second half will be -- not that the next it will be sticky.

>> look at bank loans, they were continue so you think we have some time for that trade >> if you do think we'll have an economic effect, so some risks you mentioned high-yield. >> there was a lot of -- but obviously in the performance, you can see it but again, i don't think we'll have a super-soft landing i think you

have to play both sides. you want to change that to some duration >> and in terms of that potential for a few months out, having a bit of a tougher time i think they'll hold rates for a long time. now, big, you've definitely slow down in growth later on in the year i think the hard part is timing it, but at the end of the day, the fed needs to wait and see, and inflation has given them the window to do it. will they hike again i don't necessarily think so i think growth headwinds will show up eventually

inches brian, thanks for the time today. >> thank you. the s&p 500 is holding on to the majority of its up side. up next we're tracking nvidia. kristina has more. it's making news yet again a new investment in a biotech firm and potential investment in another semiconductor company.

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and help save us from outages. with flex alerts, the power is ours. 19 minutes until the closing bell kristina. less than two years ago, the purchase failed. flash forward to today, invideo would play a major influence in arm's ipo. the f.t. reports that they were -- i -- there's a lot

riding on this ipo, given some of the softbanks, let's call it missteps in the past so a lot is righting on that speaking of the power of nvidia, it was announced it will investment $a million it biofarm a firm recurgen. nvidia would gain access for all the day, and use it for the service it plans to license in a few years. the recursion ceo will join us at 4:00 p.m. >> that's what the market is more energized there

you wonder about the directed advantage for nvidia clearly they won't control the company. maybe they just keep their hand in that side of industry >> they already have a new partnership to work on cpus, but to your point there possibly could be a consortuium. this is a huge benefit for softbank, they did say that arm is still going to be a subsidiary post-ipo, which to your point, they'll still by the majority shareholder, though we don't know how much of a stake

a lot of players see a strategic value there. thanks so much last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked after the cpi report, what will the fed do head to our twitter, and we'll inyothrelts after this break.

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yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. let's get the results of the twitter question we asked, what will the fed do at the next meeting? you see 56z% say the fell will hike the market agree with his that, though a pretty solid sizable minority we will see. up next, coinbase is on a tear, that stock more than doubling this year

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♪ welcome all. at the market seem to be wanting to celebrate is that a takeaway you would endorse?

inflation is decelerating. it's still almost three times -- of course, cpi was at 6.6% last october, but it's been a very sloe decelebration so i think you need to see the core number move much closer to the 2% market. the fed has been very vocal about that 2% market that won't go away anytime soon. we're also see it in the labor market last friday's jobs report was strong, the economy is still creating jobs, so i think we still have a wait-and-see market

will the fed raise a few times more this year and then what are the economic rests, and. >> do you think it's still too soon to stop worrying about inflation and the fed have been to go away it, why do the bonds see aseem attractive >> you have this risk/reward, and that's unappealing, and we do see better opportunities, rather than stocks that has been or main message for investors. it's wields 4.7%, and it reached 5 psst last we're. it has to do with rich valuations in the stock market and the narrow market graph we have seen. the overall national is 19 times forward earnings if you look at valuations you're

looking at 15 times earnings, which is definitely more reasonable that really gives you an idea of the narrow market breadth. that's not a new dynamic, so i think, you know, that really is why we have in a case, and we see attractive yields, and we can take advantage of it over the stock market. >> julie, thanks very much appreciate it. bryn, i would love your thoughts on the cybersecurity stocks. there's a report of microsoft making inroads what do you think? >> i think -- in this very fast-growing pace. estimates for palo to grow earnings at 60% and z-scale at

90-plus. the whole space is such a fast-growing space i get why the stock sold off today, but listen, these companies that are so focused on this space growing very fast i think it's just a small sell-off, and what's been a banner year for the whole space. so have they already reached a pullback where invite froth has skimmed away >> we'll see the way i own it is i own the bug. it's z-scaler and palo alto are the two biggest holdings i think it's a secular tailwind. i think palo is up 67% so that diversification definitely hurts you on the up side i want to be in this space i don't think that microsoft is

going to overtake 1/2 these companies anytime soon i this will it will be a niece to do suite the products >> so i think ultimately it's a win-win. >> it is kind of -- presumably -- you would assume that inchally going around the -- you think it's -- another reason to own microsoft, it's just kind of giving the company credit for it? >> i think you're giving the company credit as a microsoft shareholder, they've already been doing securities, and this is another level on that. >> presumably we're above 30 times forward earnings bryn, thanks so much see you soon kate rooney, a coinbase, a bit

of a battlefield the market is taking it higher, the street is not loving it. >> there's a growing skepticism can it really last especially with the challenge it's facing cathie woods, ark invests, we're sealing -- they were citing weak volumes, and saying the risk/reward is looking a bit less attractive. oppenheimer also say the fulling have not improved, saying they're cautious part of coinbase's rally has been on the bitcoin recovery coinbase is named as a partner in blackrock's recent

application. about 22% of the available float or shares are sold short >> yeah, without a doubt it's been caught up in this shorter squeeze. it was much higher a couple years ago. in part it seems to be benefiting, maybely because that would seem -- it would seem to kind of leave out that customers don't necessarily have to trade as much on a crypto platform. >> it's counter-intuitive. it could bring people to more traditional brokerage firms. you might not need to open a coinbase account that could long term hurt the stock, but they are named as a partner here

the bull case it's a play on web 3, and a long-term investment. but if you're in this for the long term, this is the way to get exposure in that sector. bank of america had a really good analogy they talked about silver, so apparently silver started trading in 1933. the silver etf or exchanges-traded product didn't go live until 2006 so that definitely is a reason to question if it happens right area >> things go a bit quicker now the s&p 500 holding on to most of its glide today.

the nasdaq once again the leader as bond yields have receded. that will do it now for "closing bell." we head it into "overtime. >> the stocks settle, s&p and nasdaq closing at fresh new highs. >> we have gone such a big show coming your way. we'll be joint by the ceo of baker hughes >> and shares of recursion are