tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC July 13, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. stocks trying on the back of the gains from the better than expected inflation report. and not so fast. disney's board of directors extending the contract to bob iger for two more years. the federal government is not giving up ton the fight for the activision-blizzard deal for
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microsoft. and big banks get prepared to report. and tesla may be breaking into the new and very lucrative market it is july 13th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's check off the check of the u.s. futures with the major averages with three days of gains and s&p set to open highest since 2022 nasdaq hitting the 52-week high yesterday. futures here are green across the board. nasdaq doing the best with the hot streak up over .50%. we are looking at the bond p ma - bond market. the 10-year treasury is 3.82 we see big downside moves on the 2-year treasury as well.
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falling below the 5% mark. we are watching the energy market oil is coming off the highest since april. the iaea out with the estimates this year with a reduction of 220,000 barrels a day. checking prices here we are seeing oil in the green wti crude is almost at $76 a barrel brent crude above $80 a barrel not much moving in natural gas stocks around the world here with arabile gumede in the london newsroom. arabile, hard to not see all of the green. >> if there is one thing we are looking at is all of the green it follows on the positivity from the market after the cpi news which was cooler than anticipated. that is the word we are using.
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positivity ftse 100 is .20% 2.5% better for the week we did get gdp numbers out today. 0.1% down in the uk gdp. inflation is continuing to bite. they will try to do more work with the bank of england on that side a lot of the other indices moving higher. the tech stocks are up 1% to the good on the asian market, the picktue here has been about trade numbers across the day when it comes to china they reported a surplus of $70.6 billion u.s. that is higher than last month's figure or may's figure of $65.8 billion. it is lower than what was anticipated of $74 billion u.s
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it shows things aren't necessarily climbing as high as they liked both exports and imports dropping off exports are 12% lower. across the board, we are seeing positive numbers for the asian trade. >> arabile gumede live in the london newsroom. great to see you thank you. turning attention back to the u.s. and wall street the s&p 500 closing at a 15-month high yesterday on the back of the cooler than expected inflation number one market watcher said don't get too excited because a recession is likely. the analyst said bullish sentiment of the fed chance of a soft landing and curbing inflation with higher rates could boost the s&p 500 above 4,500. however, there is always a but, the slowdown will keep the index from returning to the 2022 record highs and markets will likely lose ground and struggle for gains in the years ahead
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let's bring in anneka gupta at wisdom tree. >> good morning. thank you for having me. >> do you agree with the statement from oxford economics that we could see a rally in the second half of the year? will tech maintain leadership? i know you are looking at the nasdaq 100 and it is trading below the 200-day moving average. >> absolutely. we have seen many investors d digesting the nasdaq which is overvalued you see the peak of the dot-com bubble and that was trading well above the 200-day average. today is still above the average. i think we are at the pivotal point where earnings will be an important deciding factor to whether we see the extension in the rally. what investors will be really
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looking through in the earnings figures is if they can continue to produce higher revenue numbers and what we see in the pure figures for earnings this season is an average earnings of 9% which is well above the average for the s&p 500. in the growth scarce environment where we remare entering a slowdown, investors are looking for the opportunity. if that does play out, that provides an extension in the rally. >> this is "worldwide exchange." we talk about the u.s. and international markets. where do you see opportunities in japan >> we have been bullish on japan. we were taken aback when the tokyo stock exchange came in the
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introduce overhaul of the government statements. they told companies they need to come out with a plan and bring up the ratio and if you don't, you actually have a chance to go down we see companies respond to that we are seeing that well known japanese corporates do not compensate investors we see dividend ratios overall ratioses are falling in the u.s. and increasing in japan. >> aneeka, we had another gust come on saying we are in a super cycle and we have big weather patterns and events coming up. how does that impact the commodity market >> that is a great point we are likely to experience an el niño weather cycle.
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this is likely to follow three years of the la nina cycle what that means is the eastern part of the globe are likely to experience lower than expected rainfall, whereas the western hemisphere, southwestern hemisphere, will see above average rainfall what hthat tells you, you will see drier conditions p iin the s right now, that will affect corn, soybean and wheat. in india, you will see increased rainfall which impacts the commodity. >> aneeka gupta, thank you turning to the developing story in the u.s. and anti-trust watchdog not taking no for an answer
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pippa stevens is here with more. >> they are not giving up on the fight for microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of acti activision-b activision-blizzard. it intends to appeal the decision from the federal judge. the president and vice chair brad smith said we are disappointed the ftc is continuing to pursue the weak case and we will oppose further efforts to delay the ability to move forward this follows comments from activision-blizzard ceo to julia boorstin yesterday where he said he would be surprised by any appeal >> i can't imagine the ninth circuit would grant the stay you never know i would think it would be highly unlikely and wouldn't be productive >> looking at shares of microsoft and
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activision-blizzard of the microsoft is up and activision down >> pippa, thank you. more coming up on "worldwide exchange," and what the word of the day is and we talk about the bob extension. later in the show, we ask our expert panel if the fed has done enough. we have buoua sy hr still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." disney board of directors are voting to approve bob iger's contract for two years we are taking a look of shares of disney up over 1% joining me now is cnbc.com immealamimmemedi reporter alex sherman. >> good morning. >> you broke this all down what we see here is a pattern with bob iger. what did you make of the announcement >> i will give you three takes, which is a lot for this early in the morning. number one, bob iger really likes this job he has postponed his retirement
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four different times, if you can believe that in 2013, 2014 and twice in 2017 and now, i suppose, here a fifth time, to keep this disney ceo job the only time he did not postpone is when he walked away from the ceo job and handed it over to bob chapek he stuck around as chairman. in 2021, he was back in the saddle in november of 2021 the disney board thinks bob iger is the right person to run disney he had a long track record of success through multiple acquisitions pixar, marvel, lucas film and the big one with the fox assets. that deal hasn't gone as well as the first three. he knows all parts of disney
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he has known it since abc took over in the '90s it is the gold standard of ceos. last one, there may be no clear successor for bob chapek i'm not sure there is an obvious person to take over and that is the reason they kicked the can down the road again. >> a lot going on. there are issues with the parks and issues with the streaming service with disney plus and legacy tv with abc and espn. what is going on can bob iger fix these issues? we are showing the stock price since he returned as ceo stock is down .50% what is the board seeing that investors are not seeing >> that is a great question. what the board has subtly asked bob iger to do here is to
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restrategize the company and company's plan that he put together bob iger made the modern disney. those acquisitions i talked about and in the past few years, redirected the company toward streaming with disney plus and hulu away from media disney still owns the legacy media apps with abc and fx and natgeo and espn. iger may be in charge of how to shed the assets or spinoff espn or buy 33% of hulu from comcast in the coming months what do we do with that when we owe them $10 billion when we spent the money on the fox assets of the there is a lot to
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do on the decisions he makes >> we will get the answers soon. catch the interview with bob iger at 8:00 a.m. eastern. alex, we want to get your take on the developing story is the screen actors guild and talks with studios have officially broken down. union now recommending members vote to strike as soon as today. how does that impact disney? >> the job of ceo of disney is obviously a job that people love bob iger is in the job who knows how long before that, eisner was in the job for 20 years this is not a time for media the strike is another example of that as the business shifts, the writers and actors want to get
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paid in a cway for people viewig work at home on the streaming service. the money and contracts have not caught up yet. it is still designed for the old world theater way people are paid millions of people around the world are watching on streaming instead. that is what the strikes are all about. the end game is the media companies have more on the list of the things that bob iger will need to think about as he tries to reorient disney for the next decade >> this story is still unfolding. end game is the big success. alex sherman, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," tesla may be breaking into a new and lucrative market. we have the full story after this reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." look at the futures right now. nasdaq moving higher all three indices in the green at this hour the dow jones industrial average would open up 100 points higher right now. taking a look at treasuries after the cooler than expected cpi report yesterday treasury yields declined 10-year treasury at 3.1% 2-year treasury down to 4.64% of t
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the -- 4.64% oil for wti and brent crude are up green across the board there time for the global briefing a check on the headlines on tra trading desks around the world chinese imports and exports with the biggest decline in three years. chinese tech companies seeing solid pops in hong kong trading every executives frs from the leading executives in the companies. tesla is in talks with india to set up a production facility the ev maker has started talks with the indian government for investment proposal.
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strayeight ahead on "worldwe exchange," we take a closer look at the rough few months for the airlines we have an analyst here to breakdown the earnings and more. much more "worldwide exchange" after this break that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪
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futures are pointing to higher open easing inflation serving as a driver of the bull market what it means for the fed and rate hike strategy. investors gearing up for earnings season. big banks and airlines are all on the docket. we tee up what you need to watch and what could be a tough quarter. it is thursday, july 13th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's pick up the half hour check on the u.s. stock futures with the stocks coming off three days of gains and s&p set to open at the highest level since november of 2022 we are seeing green across the board. nasdaq is doing best up .7.75% dow would open up 100 points
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higher s&p moving higher in the pre-market the bond market has a different kind of action yields to the down side. 10-year treasury at 3.82 last week, it hit 4.09 a big decline there. a downside move with the 2-year treasury investors continue to digest the june consumer price index that ledto the decline in yields. the big question now is what is the softer than expected report and lowest read since march 2021 what does it mean for the fed? has the central bank done enough to cool inflation? as of yesterday, if it wasn't enough, we are waiting on the latest producer price index that is out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time joining me now is sarah house, senior economist and thomas phi phillipson and the professor of public policy emeritus at the university of chicago. good morning to both of you.
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>> good morning. >> good morning. >> sarah, what we saw yesterday with the numbers, what does that mean for the economy and the investors? >> i think in terms of the fed's pat path, we are still looking at a july rate hike the fed has the brokered compromise with the june pause i don't think that the softness we saw yesterday is enough to convince the fed they have quite done enough. i think they want to make sure that we see that downshift in inflation that we saw in yesterday's core maintained. we still go for july it does suggest that it is likely to be the last hike this cycle. we see the 0.2% monthly increases in the core cpi sustained the next few months. >> thomas, same question for you. >> i think the market is a forward market indicator with
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the 28% rise the score of zero yesterday with the data means that is a big issue for the fed is the core which came down yesterday. the big overhanging problem for the fed is housing the biggest component, of course, cpi at 4%. it appears rate hikes are inflationary in the sector which might seem strange we have housing prices going up and construction booming with rate hikes taking place. i think one explanation for that is that the supply of housing has gone down with the rate hikes. people are sitting 60% of market and sitting on mortgages financed through covid with low rates. no one wants to move existing home sales is 90% of new sales of homes
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the huge ply reduction in the housing market with prices increasing and rate hikes and construction is up to make up for the existing homes sold. >> thomas, are we at risk with one or two more hikes and creating a situation where the fed overshoots the 2% target and we create a deflationary environment? >> yes and no. rate hikes have now increased housing prices as opposed to decreasing them but cutting supply more than demand. it is a general fear here that the fed is overdoing it. the recession would be unique in recent recessions if we actually get into one it is not clear yet. if we do, the government is not going to step in with the house of representatives resist too much of a stimulus here like we
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did during covid it is a pretty interesting recession in terms of lack of government response to the recession. >> sarah, is the fed at risk of overshooting and creating a deflationary environment >> i think that is the risk that the fed has overdone it or will overdo it. that is why you see the debate heat up with officials which they may have done enough already. in terms of about we get into deflationary requienvironment, m not worried about that of we will see more market imp improvement the rest of the year it will be a lot harder to get from 62.5% on core to 5% like last september we will not see that same pace
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of disinflation ahead. thomas pointed out we are seeing rebounding and firmness in the housing market i think that will suggest we have in some ways less dis disflationary terms. >> i want to ask about earnings season and big banks tomorrow. do you believe it has any impact on the fed decision and meeting two weeks from today thomas >> it should have. there is stress in the banking sector thought as muc-- not as much as couple months ago. the pce will come, which is their favorite measure coming out, friday after the meeting. this is the inflation metric i think the overriding concern is inflation and not banking >> sarah, same question.
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earnings season, does that have impact on the fed or whatever we saw from cpi, does that guide their decision >> that is secondary to what we are seeing in the fed primary mandate. inflation and the labor market it will be a piece they will pay attention to, but it is going to fall secondary to what we are seeing in the economic data. >> a big thank you, sarah house and thomas phfphilipson. let's look at the reports for the two days bob pisani has more. >> reporter: the good news is that the second quarter is likely to be the trough for earnings that is because the outlook for the rest of the year is not nearly as dire as it was six months ago so far, the soft landing scenario has been the correct scenario one where inflation is slowly coming down and job growth
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moderates and remains healthy and corporate profits are stable the bad news is earnings is not the problem, but valuation the s&p 500 is 15% higher than it was six months ago. earnings expectations for the next 12 months are not dramatically higher. that means investors are paying a very high price for the future stream of earnings and some may start pushing back against the high prices. that may mean that companies may not see much of a move up in prices even if they report a beat in earnings in the next few weeks. there are other issues one is revenue many companies are likely to report a tougher time raising prices because consumers are going to likely start pushing back after a couple of years of big price increases. that could crimp price margins with wage inflation remains high back to you, frank >> thank you, bob. let's look at the results from the big banks. analysts say this quarter could
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be a rough one for the sector. leslie picker is here with more. leslie, good morning >> reporter: frank, bank executives have been guiding the market lower and analysts have slashed estimates the streak has taken down the q2 for the big six by 20% on average from the estimates they laid out 20% lower revisions. that means banks need to pay depositors more and loan growth is slowing those are crunching margins and environment for deals with m&a has been abysmal that is coming at the time the bank regulations are changing in the uncertain economy. banks are likely to hold on to cap ital and put away reserves t protect risks.
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this is priced in with valuations below historical averages if that is true, any hint of green shoots from the report in conference calls may generate renewed investor interest in the group. we will see tomorrow when three of the big money center banks, jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo reports. i'll sit down with citi's mark mason tomorrow frank. >> that will be an interesting conversation leslie picker. i want to ask you about the focus on regional banks. how does that make the quarter different from previous quarters >> reporter: i mean last quarter was all about the regionals. it was focus on the deposits and were they flying out the door amid the bank failures earlier in the year. this quarter, a little bit more attention to the bottom line less on balance sheet and more
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on the bottom line how much are the regionals paying depositors to keep deposits inhouse what does that mean for the margins and ability to essentially keep moving along in the current environment. there is not as much as existential deposits are flying out the door and which bank is next, but you could see more stability on that front and the focus is going to be more in the traditional quarter and what happens with net income. >> leslie picker, you will all over it tomorrow thank you. if banks weren't enough, quarterly results from delta in an hour. shares up 1.5% in the pre-market that report is kicking off a string of reports from the airline industry the figures on the back of the flight disruption for airlines with the most recent happening
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around the fourth of july. the airline stocks are flying higher despite the turbulence. let's bring in the jefferies aerospace analyst. good to have you here sdp >> thank you >> people keep booking and travel prices are declining if you look at the cpi from yesterday. will we see the soft netness will we see the soft ne in the up upcoming report? >> we don't think so delta has 300 million in missing revenue in airline travel. we are not there yet it is below historical norms the second reason is when we look at pricing for airfare, it is above levels from 2022. we expect that to be flat in
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2024 20 2 2024 we think despite demand, demand stays strong, but capacity disruption or lack of airbus delivering targets is keeping momentum flat. >> let's look ahead to delta buy rating of $60 target what is making delta the only name in the big airline that you have a buy on and the rest holds? >> in general, we are more positive on the group. the group is trading four or five times ebitda right now. it is a 60% discount to the market you really can't go wrong on valuation with the group obviously, that capacity issue is taking united in late june to the northeast focus. we do like delta aside from the airline premium offering for two
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other reasons. one, they have a tech ops business with engine repair. that is valued at $10 billion. they have the sky miles amex program vallued at $30 billion the two businesses are about the market cap of delta. with that, we are getting the airline for about free. >> interesting just in general, what is the next inflection report for airlines we are halfway through the travel season. when is the next indication the traffic and pricing is going >> booking curbs are sort in covid. we have september and october, but q3 is weaker with leisure falling off. corporate is stagnating at 80% recovered mark we really won't get any data
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until q3 or until september to see how 2024 is shaping up consensus is a deceleration of pricing in the second half the set up is there and the valuation is low and they are running well and i have to caveat that with delta. >> something to washtch. delta up sheila, great to see you catch the interview with the delta ceo ed bastian coming up on "worldwide exchange," the morning call sheet and one fintech player taking a hit on a ti cl.rangal we have more coming up in just a bit.
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and barclays downgrading coinbase which is likely a long-term winner in the ecosystem of crypto, but the fundamentals are challenged. that stock is down 1%. and dow transports rising 19% compared to the 16% gain for the s&p. it has been a choppy run the freight recession in the spring, recession concerns for the broader economy and decreased spending on goods and inconvenient after is adding to the concerns trucking makes up 75% of the transport market has taken a step back from the highs last year rates falling 20% more year over year we are talking general trucking and industrial and flatbed
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trucking those rates are still double digits higher than pre-pandemic levels we are see a similar story with rail shipping of containers. those used for consumer goods and raw materials with prime day behind us and back-to-school shopping ahead of us, let's sp speak with the deutsche bank manager of shipping. ahmed, great to see you. >> frank, good morning >> we laid out the transport picture right now. what is the view of the supply chain and transports and how are the unions up in canada impact your view? >> climbing out of the really, really big hole. demand for freight capacity in the month of april and may really had never been worse. all-time lows exacerbated by a major inventory destock over the
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last 12 months now, we are mostly through we are well into the bottom of the ninth inning with the de-stock the bad news is things were never worse. the good news is things can't get much worse from here we are seeing some green shoots, i would say things are better in the month of may and july. we need to see a lot more progress to really start to say we are just in a better footing. things are not getting worse we are getting better. we have a long way to go. >> give us the two top picks with the transport space >> for us at deutsche bank, we have been highlighting the company siah for a long time siah is a truck company with shares up 65% this year. we think that upside will
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continue the company earns $12 a share. we think that earnings power can more than double over the next three-to-four years. we think the company is doing the right stuff with service and call quality to have robust pricing power. >> i want to jump in different companies put loads on the same truck a truckload is one company has the one truck. ecommerce and the parcel space u.p.s. negotiating with the teamsters. how does that make up the second half of the year it is between u.p.s. and fedex generally. >> we have a come of weeks to go before the contract expires. they were close. both sides were really close a couple weeks ago and talks broke down over the part-time wages.
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we at deutsche bank have done a ton of work on the issues at hand we feel comfortable a strike will be averted. we think the two sides are closer than what the public rhetoric is implying you know, every day we wake up, we are hoping to see a deal getting done we are hopeful before the end of july we get something done the rhetoric gets a little bit tough at these tail ends of the negotiations >> amit, thank you for your time and insight. >> thanks. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know today victoria green lays out the busy day ahead and the storm is brewing for the q2 earnings season much more after this break
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i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.
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time for the ""wex wrap up." disney is adding two years to bob iger's contract. iger joins david faber at 8:00 a.m. here on cnbc. the ftc says it is appealing the decision to green light the microsoft's $69 billion bid for activision-blizzard. meta platforms is releasing a commercial version of the a.i. model to better p compete with open a.i. and google. and shares of visa sinking after it launched a satellite suffering malfunction that may impact its performance shares down 21%. the s.a.g.-aftra union is
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voting to strike the union says the national board would meet today on the strike. and cathie wood's ark has the sale of the ev giant the largest since. and looking at the fresh market with the win streak and the next guest says stormy skies could be in the future victoria greene with g squared is with us great to see you. >> good morning, frank. >> stormy skies ahead. what is the "wex word wof of day" here? >> my word of the day is calm. we have macro clouds on the horizon we have to keep our eyes on we are in the dihngy in the
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oc ocean. >> it is hard not to pay attention. the nasdaq moving higher we see yields decline. is today the day you buy back into the trade >> we are letting the growth run. i'm selling the rip and buying the dip. bubbles can persist longer i'm more like cathie wood. taking profits from the run-ups. it is risk on everything no problem the market is not pricing any headwinds. everybody will use a.i. to drive higher h higher revenue it is harder to back up the fundamentals where the stocks are trading.
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fundamentals do matter in the bubble, they don't it they run up. everybody trades technicals. you trade 40 or 50 times, it gets expensive and you should look at profit >> the sector of energy is in the red year to date there is an expectation demand can be higher. would you into energy today it >> i am a little constructive on the energy market. i like the services. i'm wary on the oil. natural gas is tough exxon took the hit earlier this month. they announced we will have $4 billion less revenue the permean slowed down a bit. if you look international, you
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are seeing more drilling activity ea did come out today and said we are cutting forecast a little bit. 2.2 million barrels of growth. >> victoria, we are more about action actionable names what are your picks? >> i like pepsi. they report today. that company, if they beat today, that is 18 straight quarters of beats. i like netflix i think they are in the crackdown on the ad supported tier they got upgraded by ubs today and nobody talks about it. ibm. the original a.i. pioneer with watson they just released watson x. you have to understand how critical this company can be and engrained they are in fortune 500 companies. >> victoria greene thank you for your time. a quick look at the futures. nasdaq up over .50%.
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dow off the highs. looking to open 60 points higher that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching of the -- watching bloo ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme.
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good morning cooler inflation and hot markets. the future is gaining more ground today after the s&p 500 closes at its highest level since april of 2022. more data on the way earnings season kicking off. pepsi will report. we will bring you the numbers straight ahead disney extending ceo bob iger's contract through 2026 two years longer than planned. latest on what it means for the media giant and geezers that
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like to work in their mid-70s it's thursday, july 13th "squawk box" starts right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm kelly evans alongside joe kernen >> that's barbie pink. >> mac gave me a pink earpiece >> where do you find that? >> u.s. equities this hour dow implied open 55. muted open look a
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