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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 13, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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the other hand newsletter has the topic, will the supreme court's rulings striking down affirmative action be a setback or progress for college campuses and corporate offices? yeah, i went there did it this morning on "squawk box. can you share it, read it again, there with the code. all right, that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts now. right now on "fast," rate shock. last week, the two-year topped 5% and today, it's more than 60 basis points lower should investors cheer or fear this rate whip saw we'll ask steve eisman to give us his take. plus, disney's ceo telling david faber everything is on the table to right side and reorganize the company as streaming completely disrupting the entertainment business. and later, are shares being artificially sweetened and progressive just lost a bundle today
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sorry, flo i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live from the naz d nasdaq market site a strong day for stocks, as investors cheer, but one more cooler than expect ed report. the major eindices all up the dollar dipping to its lowest level since last april rates also taking a massive leg lower as we mentioned. the ten-year yield sliding to its lowest level of the month. the two-year, just at 5.15 last week trading with just over 4.6%, so, what are the moves and rates telling us about the markets we have right now, guy >> well, it's the monday market confused as i am, clearly. i don't think the bond market knows where it should be going in terms of where the economy is as, where is demand at ppi is a very positive thing, a very negative thing. maybe there's going to be demand
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instruction on the back end. maybe that's why we're seeing this in terms of the bond market, i'll let tim talk about the dollar for sure. again, the volatility in the bond market has been a warning sign it hasn't man any fesed itself in equities. i thought it would the yield curve going to 105 points inversion, back to 85 points over the course of a couple weeks, that's not a normal market under any circumstances. not the least of which the largest economy in the history of mankind >> what is your take with the ten-year yield where it is now, that's a great thing for tech stocks. >> right a great thing for equity valuations, as well. and we just updated our valuation model today, this move we've had in the ten year, the shifts in the forecast have nudged that up just a little bit. but i like to watch the move index any time we talk about the bond market, and i think it's showing you we had a little bit of peak fear percolating that's come back down >> karen >> i don't know what to make of it, to be honest i actually bought some six-month
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treasuries today at 5.43 yield, i think it was this inversion, which we've had for quite some time, i find, i mean, you can see why, where fed fund rates are, why it is where it is, but i don't know what to make of it and we'll have tim talk about the dollar, but the combination of bonds catching a bid, you would think if money would come into the u.s. by dollarss by bonds, i'm not sure >> yeah. tim? >> well, i don't think bond markets are broken, but i do think that there's a lot of questions about really where the fed is going to be out, not in the next three to six months, but really 6 to 12 months. if you look at june '24 features, one point six or seven days ago, you highlighted the move in the two-year, that one move said we're unchanged. now it says we're around 60 basis points so, there's 40 bips priced in out one year to the dollar, i think you have
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a dynamic where, between the fed commentary and at least what we've seen from the market, and we do mean both inflation data, jobs data, it is that the dollar trades on central bank differentials, and amongst other things, but most notably, the differentials, and the expectation here is the fed is the least aggressive of the major central banks at this point. and i think that's probably appropriate, because they certainly were so much so over the last whatever. and i would argue, you can make an argument the dollar's been in a 13-year bull market. i don't think the dollar is going straight down, but 3.5% move down from that same point we're all targeting last week after that adp print is big and as sudden of a move as we've seen the dynamics for both commodity investors, the dynamics for emerging markets and international investors is enormous and we started to see a lot of those markets and asset classes turn on a dime, or double bottom on relative performance against the s&p, so, i do think the dollar does not hurt you on the upside, it
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doesn't mean it has to go aggressively lower from here, but i think it will go lower, and i they's part of the trade >> yeah, not only is a lower, you know, lower yields good for valuations, but a lower dollar is great for earnings, and we could hear that starting in earnings season when they start tomorrow >> talk about it all the time, creates tailwinds for multinationals, without question the stronger dollar didn't seem to be that much of a, i don't know, headwind, but it clearly should be a tailwind, but in terms of what it could help, and again, this dollar move has been precipitous, but look at the move in a gdx, for example 10% move over the course of a week tim can speak to this, as well that's pretty big. you don't think it's going to lend its to the commodity trade. gold getting off the mat, silver starting to bounce and though crude oil is going slightly higher, gasoline is off to the races again and it's pretty significantly backward dated, which makes the fed's job that much more difficult in the back half >> yeah, tim, commodities
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looking good now >> well, i -- first of all, we've seen a lot of the commodity-based docs, not just energy companies versus oil, but even a preport against the price of copper. they kind of started to die verge, and that was good news, but i do think that we've gotten some sense that there are places where there's pockets of growth. yes, the labor market's decelerating, but the other big acronym that we seem to be throwing out there, if there was tina, which is, there is no alternative, there's rino which is recession in name only. and if it's recession in name only, then -- and the dollar is falling and the central bank is on pause, it's very good for cod momties. i'm not saying you run out and buy them, but as someone who has been trading in and out of free port and bhp, i think this is a pretty decent backdrop to own them >> you updated your model today, lori, so, what did your model spit out as the sectors -- did anything fundamentally change? >> we've liked energy for awhile we've been patient with it we said, we thought the style
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trade would chop around, but energy is cheap, it's got compelling dividend yields, nice balance sheets, and now you are getting a lift of oil prices we've seen curiosity here for awhile, that's translating into real interest on our desk. >> does your view of the economy change >> no. >> based on anything >> the market -- >> cpi, ppi, jobs, where rates are going? >> the job market is strong, without question the economy is slowing i mean, think about the decisions they're making in europe their economy is disaster, but inflation is even worse. again, i'm interested to see what steve says, i'm teasing something, as you probably can see what i'm doing, but i will tell you, i've been wrong on the lag effect of the fed, but it doesn't mean it's not happening, and i think it's going to be interesting over the next few months >> let's get to steve, he's known for predicting the housing crash in '08, and now que questioning the stamina here steve is now the senior portfolio manager at newberger
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good to see you. >> thank you for having me >> what do you make of the markets? we're sort of all scratching our heads a little bit, the volatility in the bond market, the rally we've seen in tech >> i think everybody including me has underestimated how much institutional investors were underinvested in the beginning of the year. everybody was -- as one of my partners likes to say, this is the most anticipated recession that so far has not happened and so people are chasing. it's starting to feel a little manic, but could go on quite a bit longer, because as long as the economic data is okay, i don't see why people are going to sell their stocks >> it's funny, when an institutional investor says that the thing that you got wrong was underestimated how much inconstitutional investors have been invested in the market. were you also underinvested? were you sort of bracing for something really terrible to happen do you still believe that it will happen, or are you saying, you know, things actually look much better? >> well, i think we came into the year fully invested.
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we did better last year than the market because we were some what defensive. we're not quite as defensive as we were. but i would admit that i'm surprised about how much the market has gone up this year >> are there shorts inthe tech sector, if things look manic >> i don't talk about individual stocks, but thanks for asking. >> well, the sector itself >> i think it's too hard it's too hard. even stocks where i think the companies are not even going to last, you know, the correlations between all these companies that have very high revenue growth and negative earnings, so, it's not really stock picking, it's like group picking last year, those stocks were all down 75% to 90%. this year, they're up 40%, 50% but when you go from 160 to 10 and now you're 14, looks good on a percentage basis, but not so good if you've owned it long-term. >> so, what kind of economy are you investing in what's the backdrop to your investment when it comes to what you expect to the economy to give you a recession, a soft landing?
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>> at this point, i'm agnostic about it the data's still very, very strong the fed keeps raising rates. it hasn't had an impact. until it has an impact, we'll keep chugging along. >> what are you chugging along with >> i mean, it's a combination of some tech, very little financials a lot of it would focus on doing a lot of work on infrastructure, because the amount of money that the government is pouring into it is almost unimaginable. and it's going to last for at least ten years. >> tomorrow kicks off bank earnings we're not going to play individual names, but banks are interesting here -- >> no they're not. they're not interesting. >> that's my point the regulation is coming, capital requirements are going higher the environment suggests earnings are not going to be nearly as robust as the valuation suggest. i'm not saying short, long, but are banks important here because i don't think they're particularly interesting, either >> i don't think they're interesting and i don't think they're important. i mean, people own jpmorgan because they're hiding it, it's
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by far the best bank the regionals are problematic because they keep losing their deposits and have to keep reducing their balance sheets. so, for the regionals, i don't think earnings have bottomed and i wouldn't even think about buying them until i thought that they had you could traffic a little bit in the larger banks, but the problem is michael barr, who is vice chair of financials just said he's going to raise capital requirements for the large banks by 20%, which would take roes by 100 to 200 basis points. all the problems that happened in the banks were in the mid-cap banks. large banks, because of all the regulatory changes, were fine. the regulators go fight the last war and raising capital requirements of the large banks. why? i mean, there's absolutely no reason for it, but that's what they're doing. >> so, if you look at something like a jpmorgan trading at ten times, ten times earnings, i mean, to me, it seems like it's discounting a lot of things like additional capital requirements
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and, you know, some -- maybe some other bank problem down the road and maybe the economy not doing so well. so, it seems to me -- i think it's attractive here >> it is attractive, but maybe the only stock in the entire group. if i had to pick one stock where i would say the earning estimates could go up, it would be jpmorgan, but i think every other bank, probably in the country, the estimates are going to go down so, it's hard to play a group where nobody wants to own it, but you want to own the best stock. and i wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to own jpmorgan, but i just think the entire group is problematic right now. >> i think the last time you were on this show was shortly after the bank crisis. and so i'm wondering now with a little bit of hindsight and a little bit of perspective, do you see the impacts of that crisis in march still playing out? do you think it's yet to come? and do you think another one is on its way >> the only thing we know for sure is that most of the banks have tightened their underwriting standards, loan value is down.
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hasn't had an impact on the economy yet. maybe because there's so many other places to get a loan than there used to be in the past i just don't see any impact at this point >> so, you said you're focus is on infrastructure. >> correct >> and is that, like, industrials, aggregates and -- >> it's industrials, it's aggregates, it's some green, grid improvement one statistic that is mind-blowing, when the bill was passed, you know, part of the bill in terms of the inflation reduction act, which, by the way, has absolutely nothing to do with inflation, the biggest part of it was an energy tax credit, which was estimated to be $270 billion. now, that's an open-ended system, where anybody, basically, can show up and if they fulfill the requirements, they can get a tax credit. the congressional budget office estimated that that would be $270 billion the estimate today is close to $500 billion that's in four months. so, like i said, the amount of
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money that's being thrown at it is, i mean, you could use whatever adjective you want, but it's a lot of money. >> so, wondering how you think about valuations for the in infrastructure-related names do they just not matter anymore? >> it depends on the name. some have had their multiples double in the last couple years. some names off the radar are still selling at low double digits and i think there's a whole group of stocks which we're doing research on that could have a real revaluation. the money hasn't hit yet so, whatever revenue growth you're going to see accelerate is probably not going to hit until next year, so, you have your time to do some work. >> is there any stall in green if i case because of interest rates moving higher, because commodity costs are higher because metals may be harder to come by? >> i think there's a stall in terms of installation of solar panels, because people finance it you know, the multiples in that group have been cult in half it's really quite astonishing.
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so, maybe it's time to start to circle, as things sort of level out, but there's other things than just solar panels >> what's your number one sort of sub sector within the green if i case theme? >> that's a good question. combination of grid improvement and industrials. that are very focused on this. part of the theme is, we were already beginning to onshore, because of how bad the supply chain was. now you've got, i don't know, $300 billion being thrown at it, so, it's an axel rant. >> steve, we have to let you go. hope you come back >> thank you >> steve tim seymseymour, there's a lot trade there. >> there is. and industrials have been part of our conversation for a couple weeks. we talked about the relative outperformance to the s&p of the transports and the industrials when you think about the green if i case, you also -- it takes me back to the energy sector, because thee companies have not invested in infrastructure and cap x has been pulled back, so -- again, it's supportive of
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a lot of these energy companies who have growing their payout ratios uranium, very much in part of this trade, again, building out in infrastructure, only a handful of folks well-positioned the dynamics he's talking about, less concerned about banks, more focused on companies that can possibly rerate and are going to be beneficiaries of margin a accr accretion, are exactly what the market has been giving you over the last three weeks to a month, so sh the on a day when the qs and the semis went back to a leadership position, i think they're going to struggle there, and at some point, that means the market struggles >> amount of money in terms of tax credits, that's just wild. what steve was saying. >> yeah, and i think he hit on something important. a rerating in the sector, because of the tremendous growth drivers that are out there i think his view, everyone is sort of talking about this theme, is somewhat contrarian. i talk to a lot of institutional
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people who say no, i can't touch it, because it's too expensive >> money hasn't hit. >> money hasn't hit, although the first thing, when he said that number so big, like, oh, that's kind of a deficit, you know, that's going to be trouble down the road, but -- i hadn't looked at a name like you have can materials until just now that head a huge run and they make gravel, you know? so, but if it's this early on, i -- you know, i'm very happy sticking with a name like united rentals. >> what was my -- what do they call those acronym things? >> acronyms. >> what was mine you always talk about tim's. mojo >> yes this year it was mojo. >> yeah. the j in mojo was johnson control. jci sort of falls under that category, so -- i'm in steve's camp on this one. all right, coming up, a soda surge. shares of pepsi popping after reporting results this morning.
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plus, a huge move in crypto. ripple surging after notching a landmark win in its case against the s.e.c. how this decision could ripple through the rest of the crypto landscape, when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. pepsico out with reports before the bell today the beverage giant beating on the top and bottom lines, raising full-year earnings outlook by 20 cents a share. the company sees lower volumes as higher food and beverage costs curb demand. still the stock gaining more than 2% today. it was snacks. people love snacks, it's the affordable luxury, that's what the cfo said not going to deprive themselves a bag of doritos, even though it's $7 a bag. >> they talked about organic growth, that was, you know, part of the reason people liked that. but they also said that they raised prices 15% and their commodity costs were up 15%, which makes it sound like they raised the prices 15%. however, commodity costs aren't all of their costs, so, the rest, or some of the rest, is just profit. i mean, good for them, but at this price, you know, i don't
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know, 25 times, it's not so crazy, but it's not for me here. one other thing, this is a multinational, almost half their business, i think, is outside the united states, so, this dollar move could be beneficial to them. >> yeah. tim, we saw volumes let up a bit, so,maybe consumers are starting to think twice, how many bags are going to buy maybe one and not two. >> yeah, i mean, and frito breath is not something anybody wants. but i do think you have a dynamic with pepsi, where, first of all, this is one of the great five-year charts anywhere. they underpromise and overdeliver perpetually, so, when they raise guidance here, i believe them and in fact, it's kind of, when we talk about other companies, they didn't need to say this, so, things might be better i don't like the volume contraction. i don't think that they have the ability to raise prices. huge johnston said on the network this morning that he doesn't think the commodity -- he thinks inflation is not necessarily going down as fast as people might want to believe
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and that their commodity basket won't go negative. let's see about that i think they've had a unique window over the last 2 1/2 years to raise prices in a way that they will not be able to -- and i'll say it, get abay with it anymore. and i just -- the valuation doesn't scare me, this is the kind of a stock that i think you could be short, i certainly would ponder this, because i think the valuation's not cheap, and i think they priced in extraordinary dynamics, and they had volume -- volumes that were falling. didn't think they can raise prices like they have. >> i would agree with tim. i can't speak about individual company, but on this whole pricing theme in general, one of the things we see at s&p level is that when inflation moderates, revenues come down, and it doesn't necessarily flow through to margins i think we are getting to this period to the market you are starting to see erosion in certain companies, so, i'm in the skeptical camp here. >> we are hearing about tradedown constantly we heard it from amazon. dollar general saying its
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customers trading down to food stamps >> remember that >> yeah. >> and that speaks to, you know, probably 15%, 18% of the population i mean, that's a terrible thing to think about, but that's what's happening so, who wins to that and listen, pepsi's been a great stock. i think the all-time high was last week, not that it matters, karen's right. at 25 times, probably a little long in the tooth. but at a certain point, to lori's point, margins start to contract, so, as inflation comes down, as much as you think it's a positive, it will wind up being pretty significant negative. here's what's coming up next ripple rips higher the crypto at 18-month highs the big win it scored against regulators, and what it could mean for the broader space plus, iger's intentions. disney could look a whole lot different pretty soon. what the ceo had to say about the future of tv, streaming, and more you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site
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in times square. we're back right after this.
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visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "fast money. ripple ripping higher today, after a new york judge handed the crypto-currency a major win in an ongoing legal battle with the s.e.c. the coin hitting its highest level since degs 2021. other coins coming along for the ride kate has the latest. >> hey, melissa. the court's decision today could have implications for the future of the crypto industry the crypto-currency xrp that you mentioned was created by a major company in the space called ripple, the s.e.c. had sued ripple a few years ago on grounds that it sold an unregistered security. today, a u.s. district judge
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ruled that, yes, sales of the crypto-currency to sophisticated investors were an illegal, unregistered securities offering, but this is key. sales to regular investors on an exchange did not violate the law and that has been core and at the core of the s.e.c.'s recent lawsuit against coinbase gary gentzler has argued that most crypto tokens aside from bitcoin are securities, because buyers have the expectation of profit it used that reasoning in suing coinbase and binance both of those companies are fighting in court, and they argue that the s.e.c. is overreaching here. so, if other courts follow in the wake of today's decision, declaring the crypto-currencies are not securities, it could undercut the s.e.c.'s case just raising its price target on coinbase to 110 bucks from 75, saying, "we believe today's ruling on the ripple versus
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s.e.c. case is a likely positive for coinbase's case versus the s.e.c. coinbase saying its plans to relist xrp, you can see it having an effect there, xrp, the token, up 67%. coinbase getting a boost here, as well. back to you. >> kate, thank you kate rooney. this has been the question hanging over this whole space for a very long time, tim. it looks like it could be resolved do you like the trade on coinbase better now? >> well, i -- you saw coinbase up 1.7% in the afterhours. it was up 25% today. >> yeah. it's up 30% since the s.e.c. low. it's up 200% year to date, and so, clearly, also some of this is really, i think, just winning back the relative performance to the underline to bitcoin the correlations are what they are. coinbase has caught up you remove this overhang, there's a lot of questions about
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unique coinbase's platform is in a world where commoditization would be bad for them, but i -- you know, i'm long coinbase. i -- some of this is really just based on, they are the largest player in a space that was so bombed out that that was interesting to me. the s.e.c. dynamics are obviously the linchpin and today's a big day, where there's implications for more big days >> this whole move in this space has been the blackrock rally ever since it filed its application for an etf, i mean, there it goes. everything shot higher >> that funky structure, which had been as low as about a 44% discount to the underline. that discount is now down to 21%, which sounds like a lot still, but i mean, this bolds well for them. if they can unravel this structure and just have it trade anywhere close, you don't even need the underlying bitcoin to
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move >> the interesting question is, if the s.e.c. doesn't have jurisdiction any longer, if this decision holds up and it has no jurisdiction over these exchanges, then who protects the investor >> it becomes the wild west again. >> which, i don't know, could be good for the industry, maybe that welcomes in legislation to finally actually be passed >> there's a runway for it being good, for sure listen, to a certain extent, tim's been spot on with coin base robinhood is probably up 62.5%, 63% since, i want to say, the middle of june lows, eight and change so, that continues to perform. they report earnings, i think, beginning of august. the stock is right up against levels we saw in november of last year, so, this might be resistance, but there's some runway for this stock, as well. coming up, is disney ready for an extreme makeover. what bob iger told david faber the impact on the stock and the industry, next plus, unh feeling out of sorts this year, but can tomorrow's earnings release be the right medicine the options action on this
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. welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing higher after this morning's ppi data the averages riding a four-day winning streak shares of alphabet jumping 5% after morgan stanley raised its bright target to 150 from 140. analysts citing the company's potential to disrupt search with a.i. on the other hand, progressive sinking after reporting an earnings miss shares dropping 13%. that's its worst day since 2000. guy, you flagged this one. >> yeah, you have to, because you think about what's been going on in the country, worldwide. india's having record floods, you think about what's happening in the northeast, heat like we haven't seen in the west at certain point, these insurers are going to be in trouble and i think you are starting to see it now. every other commercial on tv is seemingly for an insurance company -- they're in a bit of -- they're in some difficulties here, so, these moves are probably justified >> we've seen insurers pull out
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of certain markets >> state farm. >> exactly, yeah turning now to disney. shares ending the day slightly in the green after david faber's interview with ceo bob iger. iger incredibly candid about abc and a host of their cable networks >> they may not be core to disney, yeah there's clearly creativity and content that they create that is core to disney, but the distribution model, the business model that forms the underpinning of that business, that's delivered great profits over the years, is definitely broken, and we have to -- and we have to call it like it is >> iger also spoke at length about bringing a strategic partner to espn as they move toward being a direct to consumer brand >> we have a great brand we've had a great business and we want to stay in that business that said, we're going to be open-minded there, too not necessarily about spinning espn off, but looking for
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strategic partners that could either help us with distribution or content, but we want to stay in the sports business >> there was a lot in there that made you think that he has really evaluated the situation and things may have been worse than he had anticipated when he first went into the job, that's why he's staying longer. and karen, you made the point, it sounds like he's kitchen sinking it >> he was kind of, not the exact ceo, but very shortly before that, but good for him he's telling it like it is he's setting this up to be a terrible quarter, which i think the stock actually hung in there pretty well, with what seemed like to me clear messaging and everything's on the table. that was unthinkable awhile ago, but to hear him basically say abc doesn't fit. >> yeah, that and, you know, traditional tv, linear tv, is broken, that model is broken, tim. tim, do you feel better as a
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shareholder now or do you feel like the disney picture is a little bit more cloudy >> i mean, i don't think we learned anything new here. the stock -- the stock trades like a kitchen sink. the stock is at five-year lows, the stock'sdoing nothing the s&p is at 4,500 and disney has done nothing so, i look at how we're value waiting the different pieces of the business and we're right to value them differently and you can make an argument that the core parks business on their domestic and international execution is really all you're paying for right now and so, look, i think the idea of an espn spin-off as a catalyst to disney stock is something that maybe is a negative coming out of this, but there is a lot of intrinsic value in that brand. we know amazon, apple, and google through youtube are drooling all over major sports, and they are there and they're going to have a lot of money to throw at it, so, maybe they are the right strategic partner, but again, i don't -- there's nothing about the news over the
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last 24 hours other than a more sober look at the business that we haven't heard from this company, but the market has priced in sobriety a long time ago. >> for more on disney, let's bring in tom rogers. the former tivo ceo and the first nbc cable president. tom, good to see you >> thanks for having me. >> please read between the lines and tell us what you think is on page number one of the bob iger playbook at this point >> well, first, to solve a problem, you have to admit you have one, and i've been saying for a long time here, in fact, that -- don't get carried away with disney's streaming prospects. the big issue to keep your eye on is the decline of the legacy business and that could swamp any growth they get out of streaming. and i did take away from this the fact that they are putting decline of the legacy business center stage now owning up to it in a bigger way, recognizing the problems here
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are truly severe and i think with that, the solutions are possible, but he couldn't hand this off to a new ceo right now, or there wouldn't have been any point in him coming back. there's just too many things here that are a problem to hand this off to a new ceo at this point. >> tom, it's one thing to have streaming problems, but their legacy business has been extraordinarily challenged and to your point, i mean, given what's there right now, there's no way he's leaving within the next few years he's probably going to be in this job a lot longer than he thought. so, this is not going to be a quick fix, i don't think, especially when you look at their traditional businesses >> right when you think of the list of problems, movies aren't working, cord-cutting is accelerating, sub fees from cable are going negative, advertising is going negative, viewership is declining. they got a very cloudy buyout process with hulu, disney world was actually down last quarter,
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you got runaway sports rights, and that's just on the legacy side that's before you go to streaming. and $2.5 billion of estimated losses on the streaming side this year compared to what looked like $9 billion positive coming out of netflix. their revenue per sub with disney+ was down in all regions last quarter, as well, with hulu disney subs declined for the first time last quarter. they are trying to grow while cutting costs, and they're trying to raise price with less programming. and you put all that together, there's a lot here you got to solve. and there are two deals that are not going to be easy to do that are part of the solution, certainly not all the solution owning all of hulu, which i think comcast is going to dangle over their heads and torture them for awhile with that, pause with it's critical to disney being able to put together a cohesive bundle, and then espn deal of some kind with a strategic, which is -- has got a lot of compliccomplication, bec
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separating espn and abc is no easy trick >> so, i just stopped a stop watch, tom, you went on for, like, two, two and a half, three minutes easy with a list of the things that ailed disney tim just said, everything is in the stock. what is your take on what is priced in? what investors have accepted and whether or not you think bob iger can actually tackle all those things on that list in some meaningful way to the stock? >> well, he certainly can't tackle it in the next year and a half, so, i'm not surprised at all they put this out for, you know, 3 1/2 years. certainly they're going to have to come to terms with this, because the media world is going to change drastically in the next 3 1/2 years and disney has to be in a position to be able to grow with it. i do want to point out, they have created, in a very short period of time, as he said, a 20 billion revenue run rate business in streaming. only second to netflix, which is
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about 32 billion or so run rate revenue in streaming so, it's not as if they've got nothing. they got a lot but against that backdrop, they got to solve these problems, it's going to take more than a year and a half to solve them. iger is the right guy, given how well he knows his business but nobody should think that this is going to be a fast turnaround, because it just isn't. >> it's karen, thanks for being on speaking of having a lot they also have a lot of debt are you concerned at all about that hamstringing their ability to do what they need to to restructure the business >> ah, well, it's -- certainly an issue for them. i wouldn't put it on one of the top issue lists, they don't have the kind of leverage issues, say, that a warner brothers discovery has. i think coming the other way on hulu and moffat nathanson pointed this out recently, one of the reasons i think this hulu discussion is going to go on for awhile, unless there's white smoke coming out of sun valley
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in the next couple days, is that comcast has a loan against hulu, plus they have tax on the basis of hulu. so, they don't get a whole lot of cash coming back to them for a hulu sale. as a result, for them to drag this out and make it difficult for a competitor to be able to take the key step in streaming they need to take with integrating hulu and disney+ and maybe espn+ along with it, because their bundle churn is well below their single streaming service churn, i think that they're going to end up probably having to pay more than the minimum price, and that is certainly going to exacerbate their debt issue >> tom, always good to see you thank you for joining us >> thanks for having me. >> tom rogers. okay, what are you going to say, guy? >> well, does tom look any different to you, by any chance? >> stud. >> stud. >> he does >> what do you mean different? >> he's a stud he looks better, because his
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daughter jessica had a baby boy, isn't that amazing >> nice. >> so, congratulations to the whole rogers family. see, look at him he's beaming >> another disney viewer they are a full-on disney household. >> they grow one subscriber at a time >> awesome >> tom, congrats >> all right, guy, your trade? >> he's been right on netflix and disney, and i think might be all in the stock, i don't know 82 seems to have a bulls eye on it, but netflix at 4 a 450. the valuation has doubled in this move, but -- at 30 times, historically, it's not even that ridiculous, so, i think netflix is still the place to be. do not miss david faber's interview with bob iger. it will hair again, if you missed it, it will air again tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern time, right here on cnbc. coming up, united health reporting revenues
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we'll bring you the trade next back right after this. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. more exercise. eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. with over 150 personalized genetic reports from 23andme you can start your dna-powered health journey today. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure.
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i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida. my wife and i have three children. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be. my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. welcome back to "fast money. the earnings season rolls on tomorrow, when united health reports before the bell. the insurance giant struggling so far this year, down 15%
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options traders are betting this report will not stop the bleeding mike's got the action. mike >> yeah, united health traded 2.6 times its average daily options. that made it the busiest name in health care. right now, the options market implying a move of 3.5% or so, by the end of the day tomorrow and it seems some traders believe that move is going to be to the downside. the over 5,000 puts trading. so, it seems like the sentiment is bearish going into earnings >> lori, how do you feel about the sector in general? >> our analyst is neutral on them from a fundamental perspective. i'll say the broader health care sector level, it's worth looking at the names the sector has a whole has lagged i'm sensing more interest in lag guards, talking to pms over the last few weeks and i feel like this is a market that wants to rotate a bit, so -- i'm probably more in the interested camp. >> and carter braxton worth once called this chart god-like
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>> great carter braxton worth. >> yes >> well, things change >> they certainly did. >> i was pretty good-looking once, now i'm nowhere near that anymore. things happen. i think lori hit the nail on the held it's a rotation thing now. valuation is not a concern it's a rotation. people are looking for more beta, they're going to find it in other names unh is a great company i wouldn't run too far this level has been huge support over the last six, seven months, but if mike is right about the puts, probably got $15 or so to the downside >> should be interesting to hear what they say about weight loss drugs and if they actually -- >> right and is it -- well, at the sort of beginning of it, it seems like a huge spend, right and then we'll see on the other side, maybe, is it a net benefit? >> exactly mike khouw, thank you. for more options action, tune into the full show tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time and straight ahead, they are back big banks getting ready to report should you bank on the financials here? we'll bring you the trades next.
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how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. welcome back to "fast money. a week of bank earnings kicks
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off tomorrow with jpmorgan chase, citi, and wells fargo up first. the reports coming as the dust settles from the banking crisis and to await the fed's next move on interest rates. you just sold jpmorgan calls >> i sold some upside calls against that the only thing i don't like going into this earnings print is that it's up, like, ten bucks in the last two weeks. normally i like it to trade down and they'll do a little better i think the earnings will be good we'll get some sense of the first republic deal, how good that is for them i think it was a great deal for them so -- and we're starting to see some green chutes in underwriting and banking and capital markets, so -- i'm happy to be long jpmorgan. go jamie >> lori, do you like financials? >> we actually upgraded this week last time i was on the show, i was still pretty skeptical, but we feel like there's a bigger issue. the tech trade, the growth trade, i still like my tech stocks, but i feel like this market wants to rotate a bit
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we're seeing growth stall out and i feel like everyone's been so negative on financials heading into this earnings season, especially on the regionals. i keep hearing things like, well, we need to reset the quarter, let's just wait when that happens, you see the trades pulled forward a little bit, so -- we're buying them >> interesting to hear steve said -- >> exactly >> he thinks the fallout from the bank crisis, that's done we've seen it all. >> but he also suggested he wouldn't be buying regional banks here he said he'd be waiting on that. kre has gone from 34 to 44, not in a straight line, but a decent move and that's all in the absence of bad news and to a certain extent, that's why the russell has done as well as it has, as well i'm one of these people that thinks there's more bad news coming, if you think that all it's clear sign, then the regional banks are extraordinarily cheap here >> tim >> well, listen to steve, i mean, ultimately, when he says nothing to see here, with his background, it makes me want to buy banks. and again, i would not challenge him in any way, because that's
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his forte. what i'm saying is, he doesn't see systemic weakness that are going to take the banks down therefore, that valuation bar, which is so low, is your friend. interest rates that at least have normalized from svb, it's really about where the banks net interest income at jpmorgan is probably going to surprise people to the upside i think capital markets for bank of america, the worst performer of all of them, is going to surprise people. and i think there's room for these things toll move >> all right, up next, final trades ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪
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time for the final trade tim seymour? >> rio tinto exposed to a lower dollar in commodity price. priced in a lot of bad news there. >> lori? >> we're buys the financials and we like the banks. may not want to be there in five years, but it's interesting right now. >> karen >> yes i like -- we were talking about this ticker, eww, which is kind of not a great ticker, but the mexico etf i do like the onshoring. eww. >> guy >> how is it possible that tom
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rogers is old enough to be a grandpa? ridiculous i mean, he looks like, you know, young man. >> younger than you. >> gdx, melissa lee. >> and thank you, lori, for joining us thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you. mad money starts now. >> [ music ] >> it isng

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