♪ welcome to "street signs." my name is arabile gumede. these are your headlines european stocks are on pace for the strongest weekly gain since march as soft producer price inflation in the u.s. has markets betting that the fed is just one hike away from the end of its tightening cycle. ericsson second quarter profit plunge after slashing the outlook blaming demand

the ceo tells cnbc the industry is facing a tough geopolitical back drop. >> we found ourselves in the middle of the geopolitical discussion we basically said what is going to make us competitive in the future it's really to make sure that we provide our customers with the most innovative products. a three-year battle with the s.e.c. after a judge ruled that ripple tokens is not a security offering a possible escape route for other alternative coins. we hear from the chief legal officer at coinbaseball grewal that is happening this hour. and after this spring of discontent, jpmorgan chase and citi kickoff second quarter earnings season today with the big six u.s. banks set to

benefit from raising interest rates, but also a brunt of higher loan losses. take a look behind me. most of the wall looks fairly red. we are marginally in the green when you look at the stocxx 600 we have been up this week led by the tech shares. we are seeing positivity still filtering through for a number of days in the green the stoxx 600 hit the fifth positive session in a row yesterday. we could be on track for a sixth positive week. we are up 3% as well on the week as well. the best weekly performance since the 31st of march. very having to look at the positivity to filter to next week if that is the case

more earnings are anticipated and what it will mean for the equities picture on the european markets. a broadly positive picture across the board that filters through the possiblitivity on the stoxx 600 only the dax which is up 3.5%. still have a broadly positive week by the looks of things with the dax set for the fifth positive session in a row. today, we are bound to get negativity by the looks of it. that could change. we have been open for an hour since the trading picture has turned open. just marginally in the green for the ftse 100 we are tracking burberry with the earnings from that company the cac 40 is .30% stronger. biggest gainer today smi out of switzerland week to date, we have been making note of those as well this is really where all of the

numbers are. the ftse 100 is 2.5% to the good although flat today, across the week, has been posting positive numbers. cac 40 at 4% to the good it is the biggest gainer this week really pushed on with the equity front. more than 3% gains for the dax as i noted as well all pushing to the fourth or fifth positive session in a row. this picture doesn't look to fall out of range. here are the sectors across the week we had been led by the tech counters basic resources, perhaps, having pushed into the conversation with the trade numbers from china as well a bit earlier on this week. better number than the previous month. better than june certainly not better than what anticipated. still smack-bang in the middle basic resources are down .80%.

health stocks are gaining 80%. real estate and telecom beginning with oil and gas at .20% weaker tech stocks are .50% higher of the -- higher. let's post ericsson. net sales topped estimates reaching 64.4 billion swedish crowns you see the price there. speaking to cnbc this morning, the ceo said the company is delicately positioned in a volatile geopolitical environment. >> there are a lot of geopolitical issues going on we are involved in the

geopolitical discussion. we said what is making us competitive in the future? it is to make sure we provide customers with the most innovative products and most efficient and best products. i.e., we need to invest in technology leadership. nokia cut its guidance for the year it expects the sales about $26 billion. that is down from the estimate of over $26 billion previously that stock is taking a big fall today around 8.5% weaker 3.5% trading on the retail front, burberry reviewed the guidance after the near 20% jump in first quarter comparable store sales that is in line with the

expectation. the luxu ury giant says asia is the biggest market, but weakness did come through in the americas burberry is marginally higher at .40%. heineken shares are on the rise after goldman sachs upgraded to a buy. it will see rising beer profits in brazil and south africa with the multi-year story of sales growth and recovery. the stock 2.3% to the good we had inflation numbers with the cpi and ppi. we are getting to the earnings picture. we had pepsi numbers and we are anticipating bank earnings from the united states. this is the picture for the futures thus far this is what we anticipate to see. mixed for now, but we will get the numbers in and that might shape the picture just a little

bit more in fact, this is how the market then managed to close off the day's trade yesterday. all in the green , as you can see, the most positive time as you see the market in the u.s. markets are cheering the sign that signs have calmed producer surprises moved to the down side. and may's revised reading shows prices declines by 0.4%. markets are now betting that july's fed meeting on the 25th and 26th this month will see the final hike in the most aggressive tightening campaign since the late 1980s this is the marketas it was yesterday. week to date, as i noted earlier, it has been fairly positive for the market. the dow jones industrial average managing to gain nearly 2% as

well 2.5% gains for the s&p 500 the nasdaq is 3.5% gains on that front. a lot of the stocks driven with the nasdaq and nvidia going up 54 points and foster net is down one point. this is the currency picture. massive weakness in the dollar across the week. really, really moving down in terms of how depressed it really has been on the back of the cpi data and the expectation that the fed may no longer need to do as much work to fight inflation. the dollar is hovering at 50-month lows as they are betting on the end of the hiking cycle. you will see the increased reasoning nfor that has been th easing of inflation.

it is on course for the worst week since november. the first time below 100 points since april of 2022. 99.839 is the index. let's chat to jane foley the head of fx strategy at rbs this is an interesting one this market is just pretty much saying disinflation is all that matters. you know, is the dollar, perhaps, at a curtain call or is there a gain later on this year? >> you know, i think it will be very interesting certainly disinflation is the story of the week. if we look at the dollar today, it is no longer dropping we see signs the market is taking a breather. also in the dollar, the dollar is fighting back a tiny bit of ground against the other g10

crosses. we have seen the positioning in last few days. the market is looking at the fed coming to the close to the end of the rate hike cycle what about the other banks the ecb is wondering how far it will go in terms of tightening they will probably go in july and september. the market is less sure. if we look at the economic data, we see germany in recession and lots of headwinds against germany'smanufacturing sector and again the market beginning to look at those perhaps slightly less hawkish comments from the ecb members by the end of the year, other central banks could look at disinflation and following on from the fed in terms of the peak in interest rate cycle. that means once we get into the last three or four months of the

year, it may not be a curtain call for the dollar as all >> you pointed out two points that i want to touch on there. i'll start off with just about how it is still the last bit of inflation which becomes the hardest to really bring down we have been discussing that this week as well. why is the market, perhaps, not believing the sentiment coming from fed officials and who have themselves said they would like to ensure that this is brought down consistently. you brought it down to the 3% figure in the u.s., but the last bit to ensure it stays below 2% or hits 2% that is the hardest part if they stay tight on that, it means that, one, they might continue to hike longer, but also stay that course for longer into 2024. why is the market not believing that >> i think you are right on and off since the start of

the year, there is the friction with the market thinking the fed could be cutting rates sooner than the fed's rhetoric suggests you are quite right of most people understand the last bit of services and core inflation could be the most difficult to fend off. that is a story for stock markets. if you look at currency, everybody is in the same bolat t w -- boat it will be difficult to get that last bit down. in the differentials, that is the same thread running through the mrkarkets if you look at germany and ecb, i can talk about the headwinds facing the german economy again. actually, german core inflation is looking sticky. there is the expectation that the ecb will be hiking for longer than the fed. even so, recession risks and

stagnation risks are very prevalent in the eurozone right now. that does suggest at some point probably as we move beyond september, the market will begin to believe the ecb is done, too. that does put a different light, if you like, across the aisle for the euro. >> you spoke as well as other economies will reach that point sooner you get other commeconomies loo at cuts at the end of the year and early next year in anticipation in the number dipping down considerably. does that bring upside to the dollar that it will withend up recovering >> if you move to the emerging markets, like brazil, you might see cuts we don't see interest rates cut before the end fd of the year.

you have the higher for longer story for everybody. certainly, there are risks that come to the end of the cycle for central banks. o one of the best is the norwegian krona. you see the weakness last year feedback through into higher inflation and the need for those central banks to do more we have seen inflation pressures through the yen and import prices last year now we are seeing signs of domestic inflation from wages. is the bank of japan tweak that policy or not? i think in the next few weeks, the dollar/yen trade is an exciting one. >> and they want to look out for

more support i want to touch as well on the british pound. a 15-month high for that as well on the back of what is a weaker dollar also slightly more resilient uk economy and not necessarily downbeat for the month of may. only negative 0.1% in terms of growth there does that figure for you remain at the 130 or 131 number for a sustained period of time or is the dollar strength set to kickback in? >> i think the dollar story is driving. you are quite right. the uk economy has shown more resilience than the market anticipated. if we talk higher for longer rates, the uk is a case in point. even yesterday, we had the announcement of public sector pay. that's great for the public sector, but it does mean the likelihood that inflation pressure are around for longer it means that higher interest rates will go again higher for

longer the market is anticipating that the fed and the ecb may have peaked and looking into lower rates at some point next year, but the bank of england could be at peak policy rates in order to chase the rate down. it is higher here in the uk. the cpi inflation on the headline is 7.7% a 3% handle in the u.s there is a lot more work for the bank of england to do. that should give the pound support unless we really do begin to see much weaker than expected economic data coming through which we haven't been seeing yet if we do, the market will be worried this is the bank of england which doesn't have to hike in recessionary conditions, that would undermine the pound we are not there yet. >> we are not where the bank of england wants to be at any point later this year as well.

jane foley, thank you. head of fx strategy at rabobank. coming up on the show, a cryptocurrency court ruling boosts the sector and dealing the blow to the s.e.c. enforcement action we'll discuss with the chief legal officer of coinbase. that's coming up after the break. paris as bastille day parade gets under way are president emmanuel macron and prime minister narendra modi are set to attend.

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welcome back ripple xrt token surged in thursday trade after the new york judge ruled it is a security for investors, but not the general public it is the latest development in the firm's three-year battlie with the s.e.c. after sued the

company about registering it the agency alt-coin is surging on the coin. arjun joins us with more arjun, this is a big story for three years, but really for the sector, it will be a big one >> i classify this as a partial win for the fact they did violate security laws by selling xrp. that will be a key difference as the indication continues a gray area. why was it not a security? they have an expectation tied to what ripple is doing they know if the known is going ripple there is debate if crypto assets are seen as securities or not. they have not fully answered the question for a lot of people

the question is two things what does it mean for the s.e.c. and role for wanting to regulate the crypto sector? and what does it mean for the rest of the coins? >> particularly the sector and also about the story more. paul grewal is the cfo of coi coinbase he is joining us in studio >> thank you for having me >> it is a big case to set the tone in the industry how important is it and what is the legal impact long term >> it is a very important case for ripple, obviously, but the crypto industry. the courts ruling took a womaner to a core theory that the s.e.c. is relying on and going after coin base. the court held these assets when

traded on exchanges are not securities transactions. that is the fundamental we to the heart of the s.e.c. with authority over the sector. >> have they confused the situation by putting on one side having one this, but noting there are so many other sides with how this institutional investors and the public have they conflated issues >> the court was careful to distinguish with institutional sales on the one hand and exchange sales on the other. they will have to resolve on a number of basis for the institutional sales with other facts. for exchanges and tokens on exchanges and regular investors, there is no question this ruling strikes a blow that somehow securities are traded when people go on exchanges and trade assets >> paul, you have the ongoing case with the s.e.c. which accused you of selling

unregistered securities as well. do you win now >> i think we win now. i thought we won before the decision this further strengthens the case this was not just a casual opinion offered as part of the wider dispute. this was an opinion that focused on the key issue in our case and many other cases which is are these tokens traded on exchanges within the meaning of u.s. law the ju the judge analyzed each issue. she took a long time to real the ruling it reflects care and delib deliberation her reputation as a thoughtful jurist carried great weight. >> i want to pick up on the second part with the institutional part the industry, when i speak to them, tells me the growth to the industry is the institutional investor not just the retail investor coinbase has its own platform as

well if the judge is saying xrp sales to institutional is securities, but where does that leave the rest on the front? >> for institutional investors, there is lots of reasons to cheer the decision it is not just they are institution like asset management firms, but the specific nature of the transaction between the investors in the case and the ripple defendants. i think all investments can take comfort from the fact when it comes to exchange trading with arms-length dealing, the court made it clear. these tokens are not traded as securities >> do you think the ruling is clear cut in terms of when we think about particular tokens, and the specifics of those tokens and transactions, is it as clear cut and xrp is not a security, so solana and all

others are not securities? >> i think it would be a mistake to assume every transactions that the laws do not apply if you replace the letters xrp with the letters for any other token in the decision, the logic still holds. >> i want to touch on how this will help long term. i know i spoke impact long term, but as your business looks at this, how much does this paint the view for the likes of the s.e.c. and other regulators to firm up when it comes to the regulation around these with what they deem crypto tokens or the like and have a usuccinct basis of how they rule on this clearly, this is a difficult situation in which to trade. >> this was a milestone event in

the tortured wrhistory of cryptocurrency in the united states if nothing else, it under sscord the reality we need clear rules and a thoughtful process much like here in the uk is unde underway the contrast the uk and europe has taken could not be greater than in the united states. our securities and exchange commission has relied on could you remember cases and litigation -- court cases and litigation rather than decision making. >> tyler winklevoss tweeted calling the s.e.c. a failed institution. accused the s.e.c. of missing issues like celsius and ftx and taking a loss in the ripple case after the ruling, in your view, is the s.e.c. fit to regulate crypto >> i can't speak for others. coinbase's view is the disputes,

the differences of legal opinion, are disputes grounded in good faith. many people at the s.e.c. have been operating on a good faith belief on the authority. they have been wrong that doesn't mean the institution has failed, but there has been a failure of leadership to follow reasonable engagement with the industry rather than resorting to court. >> you feel this is an ideological display? >> there is still time to fix that. >> in terms of the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the u.s., from your point of view, what is required is there a new framework required what does ideal regulations look like for syou? >> we feel rules will be important. legislation as well. the fact of the matter is we have an asset class that behaves

differently. when the laws were written in the 1930s before the second world war, they did not contemplate the asset. we need new rules to deal with the new technology >> a broader macro question, paul we saw a rally in the cryptoc cryptocurrencies, is the crypto winter over? >> i hope the crypto winter is th thaws. we see green shoots. i think people are eager on innovation and new technologies rather than hearing from judges and lawyers like me in court cases. >> paul, a lot of clarity if that i appreciate the time. this industry needs more clarity

is what we are hoping to get paul grewal at coinbase. we have some other data coming out. it just speaks to the cma case with the microsoft activision situation which has been one we are poring into. the uk cma say they have full consideration of the microsoft submission of the order on activision the statutory period to accept it or not does end on the 18th of july. that has been extended to the 29th of august, 2023 on the microsoft probe, they say the group has extended by six weeks as they consider the special reasons to do so they hope to finish this at that time arjun, it drags on the case longer they are hoping to finish before

the 29th of august >> dramatic story. the reason is because obviously after the ftc or judge made the decision on the ftc case, the cma came out and said we are ready to consider the transaction to make it satisfactory and address concerns they clearly need time to think about this what does this look like microsoft previously a few months ago offered concessions to the cma for the deal to go through. the cma rejected those they have to think about the concessions to help the issues allow cloud gaming for rival products and is there more they can do they need that extra time to hash that out. does it involve divesting in the uk or concessions with licensing? these are the questions they

will ask in the next six weeks. >> yes or no question. just like the u.s., it has appeal situation does this go to the situation where the judge rules the deal can go ahead >> firstly, they have to hash out and come you up with a compromise if things don't work out, this could go back to a court situation. >> we will follow that story for you as well. as you can see, microsoft on the up there in the pre-market trade picture. we will continue to follow that for you. breaking news coming from the uk when it comes to the cma and that microsoft activision deal coming up on the show, major u.s. banks set to report as earnings season begins in earnest. we look ahead after this

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coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. it's the second half of the show welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are your headlines european equities on pace for

the second half since march and the markets are betting the fed is one hike away from the end of the tightening cycle the uk competition watchdog launches a six-week probe into the microsoft takeover the activision-blizzard and now ending on the 29th of august. we discussed a three-year battle with the ripple and s.e.c. which takes another twist after a u.s. judge ruled ripple is not a security. cfo paul grewal tells cnbc it is a pivotal moment >> not just for ripple, but the industry the courts ruling took a hammer to a core theory the s.e.c. is relying upon and going after the exchange like coinbase citi and jpmorgan chase take

higher pre-market as traders eye the start of second quarter earnings season on wall street with the big six u.s. banks set to benefit from rising rates and bear the brunt of higher loan losses let's get to the picture in paris where it is bastille day and the prime minister of india narendra modi has been honored with the bastille day. it is in the midst of the shadow of the riots 45,000 police have been deployed in the evening while fireworks sales have been banned as the government aims to prevent the violence seen in june. a lot of trauma offensive happening between narendra modi as well as france's emmanuel

macron they are attending that bastille day parade, of course, honoring narendra modi this year reflecting the deepening ties with france and india. both celebrating 25 years of exstrategic partnership. modi has called macron his friend in recent times he did say that last night that the closeness limited beyond -- not limited -- to leaders of both countries as well macron's red-carpet welcome happening as he had welcomed a few leaders to the country modi was just in the united states not so long ago again, macron telling the military leaders yesterday that india was a giant of world history. we'll have a decisive role for the future

there are the leaders attending bastille day's parade in paris, france all right. major banks in the u.s. are gearing up to report quarterly earnings today jpmorgan chase, citigroup, wells fargo and blackrock will release numbers before the bell with investors watching to see if lenders can sustain a record net interest income. expectations with low for the earnings season with analysts from refinitiv forecasting a 4% drop from the sa&p 500 companies philipi is joining us now. this is one where the banks say we reap the benefits for some time now, is this the last chance for them to make the

higher rates >> yes, good morning we are nearing the peak in the net interest income. we see jpmorgan chase and citigroup announcing full year higher net interest income i think as the fed naturally slows down the pace of hikes and perhaps some people in the marketplace in july say this is the last time we need to see and that net interest income will eventually plateau and we peak for the cycle. >> they worked on tightening lending requirements loan losses are bound to increase in the period are we expecting those to really be achilles heel this time around the banks would have looked at the capital requirements which have been in place now and thought we can't do much more than we have been doing this

year >> yeah, in some sectors because it is in every day's papers of the market with lending. think more than a year with the tightening that is why we see the value decl declining. as for the loan losses, yeah, i think that is what we will see a gradual increase of loan losses as the economy cools down. we don't know if it ends up in recession. board members are still not expecting recession for this year we will see an increase in the money set aside for bad loans. citigroup a year ago with $850 million in loan losses in q2, 2022 and $1.5 billion for this quarter alone. >> are knew the camp of recession avoidance? if so, do rates go on the 6% or

6.5% mark? there is room to play with the net interest income. >> i think it is 50/50 we he still have an enormous amount of liquidity. if you look at liquidity to gdp, we see the covid high of 90% we are still in the 75% number we have to remember the fed bought $3.2 trillion of treasuries in 2021 out of that this is the normal amount of liquidity in the system which was in the bank deposits and current account and market funds. this amount of liquidity is still very high. i think the risk is the fed will have to keep real rates higher for longer and will generate recession which will probably mean it is harsher than the

market expecting >> the issue is not always necessary over the last year or so, but it has been the regional banks and those lenders. how much focus should be pushed on to them and how much are we still looking at deposits? >> i think we are still looking at deposits. deposits on the fence with the shift from the deposits to the money market funds some banks, larger banks, have their own money market funds so they can propose to depositor the money market fund. the regional banks are not involved in asset management they lose the deposits it goes out on the balance sheet. before, they have to pay more for deposits or rely on federal housing loans or broker deposits that is more expensive there is a focus on the deposde.

i think it depends on the economy. if the fed needs to go the extra mile >> thank you so much for the time i appreciate it. we will take a look at the numbers and perhaps get back to the conversation as well head of financials at hermes joining us as we look at the banks set to release earnings. that happens before the bell in the u.s. coming up on the show, hollywood actors exit stage right. refusing an encore amid fears they will be replaced by a.i

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dutch prime minister rutte we have word that the dutch elections will woul be held on november 22nd. that news breaking not long ago. the fourth led parliamentary election or coalition government that rutte led which did collapse this past week. now it has come to an end and elections put in place for november 22nd. now as many as 25 developing economies spent 20% of the government reachvenues on total debt last year, the united nations development program said allowing indebted countries to pause debt payments would mitigation the social and economic shocks that rise from servicing debt tanya spoke to the administrator

and asked about the report's key findings >> the cost is many of the core expenses in the developing countries, particularly low income countries, the health is being cut to service debt. this is creating not just a temporary problem, but chronic problem. the first time here we have a situation where debt which is incurred by developing countries is private sector credit-to-health debt. we face two challenges how do we deal with public debt? government-to-government borrowing and lending money to countries and enormous amount of capital from lenders which have been difficult to come to the table for debt restructuring >> what is the global implications if action is not taken to address the human cost

of the debt crisis right now >> we are seeing the consequences you saw sri lanka fall you saw a number of countries fall on the debt service payments default is a catastrophe for any economy. secondly, the diversion of debt servicing means a generation of students going to school will not get an education many will not get a health treatment and we are creating a group of economies and countries that are linked from the global growth and development this is not a good recipe for an international community and for 8 billion people who have to live with each other and trade and survive. hollywood actors have gone on strike joining the film and television writers joining the union s.a.g.-aftra the union representing 100,000 actors is demanding higher base

pay and assuring they will not be replaced by a.i in the uk, the cost of the christopher nolan movie "oppenheimer" walked out bob iger called it disturbing and having an effect on the industry he said the expectations were not realistic. >> there is not a need, plus, he has not articulated a vision or ideas that are of particular value to us. some, yes, but we were already working on those when i came in, we talked about cost cutting right away. we recommitted to cost cutting and streaming. where is the need? >> a story which will talk about

in the future. and the breaking news is the $69 billion microsoft activision takeover there will not be time left to argue under the previous date. they hope to argue under the new deadline on august 29th. arjun is continuing to join us arjun, perhaps an extension is right word to talk about this. >> the judge ruled the ftc would not get injunction to block the deal in the u.s. shortly after the decision, the competition and markets in the uk came out here and said we are ready to restructure the deal to allay the cma concerns in the uk given the deadline is a few days away, it would not have given the cma and microsoft and

activision enough time to come up with the proposal this is likely for the extension of the deadline. this is interesting. a few months back when the cma blocked this merger, microsoft did offer concessions in the form of happy to license our games out to other cloud platforms. the crux of the argument is if microsoft takes overact vision, had they can make the -- over activision, they can make "call of duty" available to other platforms. this deal is blocked and now what is interesting, they have come back to the negotiating table. that is microsoft going to do? more than what they were offering earlier this year >> did they offer anything else? >> this is lies can they do more or will the cma ask for some diffivestment of t

business in the uk what can microsoft offer to allay the fears? what is positive and you are seeing that in the pre-market reaction there on your screen is the fact that the uk negotiators. rest critics are back at the table. that sis a positive sign and tha may pave the way for the deal in the uk >> stock prices are not shooting right up, but are on the up. we will continue to track this story. arjun, i appreciate it arjun joining us on the microsoft and activision deal which we will follow on. it is a long running saga. let's check on the u.s. and see how things are set to fare there. we anticipate things to inch higher with the nasdaq to the flat line for the s&p and

dow jones industrial average let's not forget the s&p 500 did close at the highest level in over a year yesterday. that market is on the up markets looking ahead to the ppi number that came out yesterday of course, basing the fed, perhaps, could be at one and done status. investors wait wing the earnings reports from the big banks that is all set to come out later today. it is before the bell. u.s. colleagues will continue to follow that data a whole lot more that is it for the show. a jam packed one have a good weekend. i'm arabile gumede "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. stay tuned

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters of here is your "five@5." investors continue to find new reasons to buy and today is all about the banks. jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and citi opening up the books as the sectiotk sector faces a hea headwinds. and not enough wortds from the fed head after the cooling. and actors