tv Fast Money CNBC July 14, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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out, the yield curve's going to correct, credit's going to be resolved, the regulatory issues are going the clear up the issues with deposit costs and all that stuff is going to go away. >> david, we got to leave it there. we've run out of show. thanks for joining us. we know what to look forward to. a lot of bank earnings that will do it for "overtime" "fast money" starts now. thanks, john right now on "fast", easy come, easy go. bank stocks come out of the gate hot as q-2 earnings kick off, but those early gained reverses in a hurry, and the rest of the market went along for the ride what the fade says about stocks from here. plus, there was one part of the market able to keep its head above water today, health care riding high after a rough month. later, it's friday we've got a chart of the week. the stock looking at its best five-day run in over three years. we'll tell you what it is in 30
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minutes or less. i'm sarah eisen. in for melissa lee on the desk, bonawyn eison, courtney, steve grasso, and guy adami. all popping at the start of trade after each posted revenue and earnings beats for second quarter, but the gains didn't last long. jpm landed in the green, but off the day's highs. citi dropping 40%, its worst day since march. the dow managed to eke out a fifth straight day of gains. s&p and nasdaq closed in the red. overall, very solid week for stocks, all the major averages posting strong gains since monday the nasdaq got over 3% what message does all this action send as we head into the start of earnings season guy, what did you make of the reversal >> hi, sarah
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great to see you sorry i'm not there. i don't want to make a huge deal out of one day i'll say this. last friday you saw a similar reversal in the market the market was on cruise control every friday last friday it changed, and today it was interesting i think a couple things stick out to me. you mentioned j.p. morgan. the reversal in the kre today i think is something to watch for sure that touched up to the early june highs and seemingly failed around 44 1/2, 45. that's something to watch. the movement state street, the prior guest with john was just talking about that that is a huge move in a very important bank, and i think they may have told the real story of what's going on there. things are tightening. regulation is coming credit's going to be more expensive and banks' ability to earn is going to be impaired for quite some time, so you have to ask yourself, what's the right valuation in this environment? i understand why j.p. morgan gets a premium, but the other things i think are starting to
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suffer. >> courtney, wasn't it good news when it comes to the economic signals from the banks, the deposit information? what did you glean >> that's where i like to see what j.p. morgan had the say they have a good grasp on the consumer they came out talking about how good the balance shoot looks, they continue to spend they're putting a lot of money on their credit cards right now, which some people see as a bad thing. when you look to consumer sent mt., that means consumers are opti optimistic and they continue to have wages going forward consumer spending is 70% of gdp. if they remain in good position, it's more likely this recession may not happen in the future. >> i agree, consumer confidence -- university of michigan out today, better than expected and one-year inflation crept up a little bit. something to watch with all the celebration over lower inflation. bonawyn, are you changing anything that you're doing here? >> not really. honestly, i mean, again, i can't
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really argue with what courtney says, but what i want to really refuse to do is kind of get sucked into this lull. it feels like, yes, the banking news was on the margin pretty positive, but i would argue that the banking stocks haven't been what's taken this market higher any way. while i am going to look into the health of the consumer there, credit card balances, but also the fact that they were putting aside more money for loan loss provisioning while it wasn't anything al alarming, the fact that we didn't kind of drive -- to me, as carter says, it was somewhat of au pair of 2s the market clearly was strong. i think the consumer is still strong i'm not seeing that catalyst that takes us that leg further then you mix in the vix seems like a lot of hesitancy to spin protection if you look at year to date begins on the major indices, it makes a lo a sense to invest
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those gains, protect portfolio, selling away, going away in may and doing so with pretty good feelings about it. >> do you agree, steve, or is the trade higher >> makes sense to pick up where bonawyn left off the problem for the bulls and the bears is that the bears are wondering, should they jump in when the market's up this much the bulls are thinking, do i sell this market or keep riding it we're both asking the same questions of, when do you pull the switch or flip the switch when you look at j.p. morgan, wells, citi, those are different stories. citi's net income is $2.9 billion versus $4.5 billion year ago quarter that's not good. state street, guy brought up,s the not good quality and they're signing a light on a lot of different things people aren't focused on j.p. morgan has a hot line to the treasury janet yellen doesn't make a move
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unless she talks to jamie diamond. >> i don't know about that. >> that's probably closer to a fact than all of us would like to admit or actually i would like to admit that, because i want that i want jamie diamond deciding -- >> i think that's wishful thinking. >> maybe when you think about it, when the banks were having trouble, janet yellen was calling jamie diamond. somebody can @me, but i truly believe jamie diamond was not orchestrating, dictating policy, but -- yeah, i think that he has a -- he gleans a lot of insight into where the puck is going and where to be putting his bets. >> you know what else happened today, guy, we had seen these yields, which were lower all week, reverse higher partly we got that strong data the dollar, which had been very weak in 15-month lows reversing higher does that tell you anything?
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you don't want to read too much into that. >> no, i do want to read a little bit the dollar is obviously a story you mention all the time doing a wonderful job with that always the dollar bounced, clearly. but the move in beyond yields, n we've talked about this the last couple years, it's unhealthy we can talk about whether or not that's a good rate to use. when you see the 210s go down back over a week, week and a half, that's telling you the bond market doesn't know what's going on equity market seems to be abundantly clear, but every time we've seen volatility in a bond market, at a certain point it finds its way into an equity market, and it's a matter of time before we see that. >> we got as high as 408 on the ten-ier last week. that was on the strong adp
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report, and jobs came in okay. this week, all about the weaker inflation number, so the instinct was buy bonds because the fed is one and done. july rate hike, and that's it. >> fair. you make a great point this is the largest economy in the history of mankind almost by definition, the u.s. bonds treasury should be the most liquid asset on the planet, and they're trading quite frankly like a $150 million biostock with one drug in the pipeline i don't think they should move like this. maybe the world has changed, but there was a time when you got a few bases points over the week you were doing back hand springs. now you see that over the course of minutes market structure in the bond to me is broken it's a matter of time before it find its way into the equity market. >> that's a warning from guy adami let's turn to health care. the best performing s&p sector today. names like united health care really drove that. eli littlery, centene all
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helping the group. the chart master once called the chart god like now he says the power may be gone let's bring in carter worth to explain. nice reaction to the quarter, carter. >> it was. it was a stick save in an otherwise sloppy pattern in terms of the all data chart -- we won't get to the charts just yet. united health care is one of the best performing public -- since. we have a stock trading at 480 best stock of all time with the exception of am gen. it is pause or over? let's look at the chart. and we just have one and what we have here is this great ascent of course i'm only going back to 2018 on this particular it ration and then this sideways grinding.
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to be fair, the peak to trough decline is 19% of course the nasdaq dropped 37% in this general two-year period. on that sense, not so bad. but it has stalled and so long-term i would call it the pause that refreshes in ongoing god like stock, but today's action just simply saves what has otherwise been a very sloppy circumstance. i think more importantly the opportunity in health care overall. what we're going to look at now is three identical charts. the first, second, and third first has no it rations, drawings or judgments, no lines. it is a relative strength chart. all data the s&p 500 health care sector performance to the s&p look at the next well, what do we have? talk about a well-defined trend line and finally, third, what do we have where has this stopped to the penny, to the penny, to the penny, meaning the relative
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underperformance of health-care right now is down to its all data trend line in effect since 1989 when the gix standard classifications began, and it has bounce every other time a market like this where many things are frothy, something defensive like this that has underperformed i think is a real opportunity. >> very dramatic carter, thank you. that was great carter worth, we're going to see you shortly on "options action." what do you think of the chart, steve? >> united health is my just trade. i've always been betting on this stock. the problem is it's been disappointing, as carter has mentioned. but i loved how he said to the penny, to the penny, to the penny. he should narrate audio books. >> he's got good timing. >> i want to see what happens in the next chapter on that one i'm always rooting for unh it's constantly disappointing. i think its day is coming. just hasn't happened yet. >> quite a day, courtney, adding 200 point i think to the dow
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do you stick with this one health care in general has been defensive will lagged. >> i remain optimistic like steve, but elective surgeries are really increasing, so there's going to be additional cost which is going to affect them in the short-term this is a company, they have increase their revenue 11 consecutive quarters and you don't want to disappointment them in the long-term. long-term i think it's a great trade. >> i was also listening to the "to the penny, to the penny, to the penny", something else he said was beta. this is why i like the health care trade carter pointed out the trend line bounced off that it's an opportunity for to you step down your beta in your portfolio at a time when we're sitting here saying, bulls or bears, which the next shoe to drop this allows to you stay close to the portfolio. >> on a related note, guy, how about eli lilly adding another
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3.5% today all the obesity drugs, really. >> remarkable. we have been talking about this seemingly for years and people knocked it on valuation. maybe rightly so, but if you try to sell it on valuation, it's a difficult thing to do. i understand it's expensive, but every sell-off of the magnitude we've seen the last week and a half has been brought. i don't see why that's going to stop despite valuation and too much optimism, i still think eli lilly goes higher from here. >> health care on top of the market today along the staples and discretionary. when we come back, we've only just begun the stream of q-2 earnings reports with tesla, netflix, and d.r. horton next week, traders laying outhow to get results. diving into the dollars drop this week. greenback hitting its lowest level in a year during a session. what that anmes and how you can trade around it. more "fast money" coming up in
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to get results from big tech and pharma companies as well we're zeroing in on some of the biggest names in a trade it or fade it earnings edition, starting with of course tesla. surging 128% this week -- this year so far, guy trade it or fade it? >> yeah, steve's on the other side of this, and he's been spot on, so it's going to be difficult to beat him on this one, but i'll say in the earnings, the fact that this 280 level reflects a retracement of the all-time high we saw in 2021 and recent low in january of this year, i think it's a place to pause in the earnings i would fade it, sarah. >> steve, you've got take the other side, right? >> yeah, so -- well, i don't have to, but tesla i would definitely trade this one. >> after that setup he gave you? gave you so much credit? >> that's okay i'm grateful for it. guy always points out when people have done well with their calls. i started this at 105, traded it at 190
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this one has been all over the map, and i could totally understand why guy would fade it because it's had such a big run, but the world is entering into their charging standard, so i think they're going to be able to monetize that going forward you might see a stutter step ultimately i think it goes to 300. >> by when this year? >> my crystal ball was a little foggy today, but i would say somehow, some way before the end of the year. >> let's do another high flier netflix up over 50% since january 1st. bonawyn, trade it or fade it >> i'm trading this one. i know people say the valuation really is not compelling, and i tend to agree here, but this is more of a momentum trade for me. they've gotten a lot of things right. you look at the streaming wars with their competitors, the password sharing, the ad supported model they rolled out. i don't want to find myself standing in front of a train
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this is one of those handful of names, so i'm going to stick with it. >> courtney? >> i would fade this exactly what you brought up in the first place, thele extra situation is my problem. they're doing a lot right. i don't want to discount that. it's a very great company. but when you look at ad supported tiers, them cracking down on the password sharing -- this is one of the companies doing really well, and probably not acknowledging we're in higher for longer period. >> do they ever trade on valuation? which is a fair point. >> maybe on bonawyn's side. >> let's hit amexbecause it's up 17% this year. >> knee jerk reaction was i wanted to fade this, but i'm going to trade this one. when you look at the millennials this was associated with corporate buying, older people, more affluent purchaser, but now if you see that travel has been exploding, i think you could still have room to trade this one. >> guy
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>> i'll be in fade it camp i understand what steve is saying valuation is a concern, but credit and delinquent is going to start to grow that's going to hurt the stock. >> let's get to housing trade. d.r. horton rallying 46% this year it's hard to believe the home builders have had such a good run with rising rates. trade it or fade it? >> definitely trade it showing the resilience of the consumer there's no demand slowdown but d.r. horton is specifically in the, like, entry level homes, so all the people getting priced out, this is going to continue to benefit them. i would continue to play this trade. >> bonawyn >> same team >> first time that's happened. >> i'm going to trade this one as well. i get it, you want to look for places to be a contrarian, particularly given the year to date trade it's had. as long as there's a shortage of housing, i continue to want to look at this pocket as opposed to the commercial side.
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>> which is why they've outperformed so much, even with rates high, mortgage rate at -- what are we back up to 7% or higher it's that low supply. when we come back on "fast money," one stock came out of the oven piping hot this week. what's behind it we're slicing into that trade next you're watching "fast money. we're back after a quick break
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our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. - today, 9 million kids in america are considered food insecure, meaning there may not be a lot of dinner at the dinner table. help change a kid's life. support your local food bank. the more you know. welcome back to "fast money. our chart of the week is rolling in dough share of domino's pizza rising 13% since monday that is its best weekly gain since march 2020 trade got hot two days ago after
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domino's announced delivery deals with uber eats and post mates. keep domino's on the menu, guy >> i do. kudos to steve again years ago he talked about domino's being a technology play stock over the past year hasn't been particularly great, but seems to have found a home 25 times is not expensive for this stock northeast or capital just upgraded the name yesterday. and as you probably know, sarah eisen, because you follow "fast money," i actually worked there and was employee of the month despite the fact that i only worked there one day look at that kneading the dough, putting the sauce on that's pizza making at its finest and servicing customers right there. >> did you do deliveries, too? >> that was a different job of a different time, probably for a different time slot, different show. >> i would have loved to have gotten a dominos delivery from
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guy. what about the stock, steve? >> as guy said it's had an incredible run, and they were on the forefront with the digital ordering and everything else but now -- they were always a little late to uber and third party delivery now they're going to allow post mates and uber to start delivering it, but you're still going to have a dominos em employee deliver it, they'll just be on the uber platform and post mates platform. >> right this is why -- i always play devil's advocate i didn't understand the move higher because to me it was a signal that this was their whole competitive mode, right, that they were supposed to do the technology and delivery -- >> that's why you and i are on the same page. >> now uber is doing it and going to participate in the revenue upside. >> even though it's been a tremendous outperformer, i think you have to sort of take profits here it's been an unbelievable run, but i think the run is over. >> bonawyn
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>> i'm with them on the delivery side there's been challenges aside from the weekly run-up, but i think there is a bit of a shift, a focus to actually carrying out there. that's why i think the technological upside is there. given where the stock has been the last couple of years, you probably do still have a little upside here. >> right maybe, guy, if you go back, that will be the next catalyst. >> we'll put it out there. they watch the show. put it out there right now i can go next week i'll start tuesday. >> that's what i'm doing, i'm putting it out there tight labor market time for the final trade let's go around the horn guy, back to you. >> we mentioned health care, bristol myers. 27th, i think the stock rallies in earnings. >> bonawyn >> tight labor market, tight housing market, dhi. >> courtney? >> the one we agreed on with housing. you stole my final trade i'm going with itv you want to look the owl your
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home builders here. >> steve >> gray scale trust. this one looked like it was ready to pop to me mid june. started to pop i think it has more in it. going to be back and forth ultimately i think it gets to about 20 bucks >> did not see that coming that's going to do it for us on "fast money" but don't go anywhere, because "options action" is next.
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right now on at o.a. investors digest early results from banks how options traders handicapping the action we'll debate. plus, tesla all charged up ahead of its results the stock up over 25% this year. can the ev making keep rev up its returns? later, we'll see if netflix can keep streaming higher, in energy names can ke
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