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tv   Tech Check  CNBC  July 14, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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carter, you go first. >> let's go with silver, slv. >> there you go, make it easy. brian? >> netflix, buying a call spread, selling a put. i don't care about the actors strike i think stock goes higher next week, earnings. >> mike? >> tesla, take the -- off. put
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a.i. mania, inflation. the etf hit an 11 month high. take a look at the chart of performing microsoft, off of it and they have doubled this year or more. most of the other isruptive tech funds with a similar or better tech fund. there is a focus on thin tech en bloc chain. both of those rallying more than 60%. this is a big one it still
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hasn't come close to the highs of the pandemic. it was the poster child of the tech boom. it has created over the last couple of years. it was one of the worst performing equity funds of 2022. what also sold nearly $12 million worth of coin base where shares of the crypto exchange and reached a yearly hi. of course, the jaw-dropping rally in nvidia and exited in early january and the flagship fund. let's get an inside look. joining us is kathy would herself. thank you for being with us. let's start with nvidia. walk us through the process and why you judge the name to be overvalued as we were taking off. >> we started our research on artificial intelligence. this was when we were studying the possibility of autonomous vehicles back in 2014. nvidia at the time was five dollars. that is on a split basis. now it is closing in on $450.
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we wrote it all the way up until mid 300s mid to high 300 and the flagship, sold it because we saw the inventory problem brewing. it was a good call. got back in in the fourth quarter when it cratered and then, it has took off after chat gpt. while ali other stocks, many of them a.i. driven. i would say most of them, actually, were still very, very weak. to give you an example, nvidia was 25 times revenues. we had done very well. we also kept it in a more narrowly focused portfolio. cuts took profits there as well.
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>> taking profits, sure. what makes it a better player of having in your portfolio? >> a lot of people understand that nvidia is an incredible play on a i. it is priced accordingly. i don't think many people know that twilley oh, if you use uber, the communication on uber is powered by twilley oh. they have 1 billion consumer interactions per year. who were going to be the winners in a.i.? it will be companies with visionary management, the distribution global in this case and proprietary data. twilio has data on business to consumer communications that no one else has. we think the secret sauce and
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the real beneficiaries of a will be those with proprietary data. the biggest one being tesla. more data on real-world driving miles than all of the other auto companies and tech companies focused on autonomous in the world. >> when you compare a tesla or twilio, tesla is at a different scale. it is collecting much more data. what makes twilio so disruptive. it is acting as an intermediary for uber drivers and customers at other companies. what makes it an artificial intelligence winter? what is so disruptive? >> it is able to take the data. it let's use twilio's data on uber. uber has introduced many services and advertising . with this data, it is able to target consumers basically sending them
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data, advertising offers to buy this restaurant or get a delivery from the restaurant probably in a much more targeted way than most companies that are in between the consumer and businesses. >> i want to go back to nvidia. i see the proposition there. perhaps investors do more clearly as judging by how much it has been up. were you surprised by the monster quarter that nvidia put out in may? it wasn't just talking about artificial intelligence as something in the future just kind of where we are with some of these other names but it will book revenue related to this huge platform shift. what makes you think nvidia at the time was overvalued when you have zoom video, for example. a call that it could reach half $1 trillion. >> if you look at nvidia, it is one of the magnificent seven.
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it is an easy way to put money to work. the excitement around chat gpt was such that this was the obvious play. it has been the check the box a.i. company for a while now. rightly so. it has been doing an amazing job. whenever i hear the word shortage and you are hearing shortages around gpu's for a.i. computing power, i step back and say okay, there is probably double ordering. this was true of everything during covid. it was a great call. it with an inventory call. i think we will see the same thing care. >> is in its shortage of the a.i. chips everyone wants, isn't that
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? when you don't get it, you double order, triple order or quadruple order. that happens routinely. this is a cyclical comments. this says nothing about the secular potential. we think it will face more competition than many people expect. we know amd. we know companies like tesla. tesla has designed its own a.i. chip. meta-platforms own a.i. chips. google, the same. it doesn't have the market to itself like i think people think. it is priced as though it is the one beneficiary out there. if you look at all of this stocked in our portfolios, the companies have dietary data that no one else has. >> is this as good as a gets for nvidia or are you looking for an opportunity to pick back up some shares?
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>> if it were to correct, it goes through these massive corrections around inventory and shortages. yes, we certainly would. understand, it is a well understood play on a.i. at 25 times revenue. tesla now probably at seven times revenue is probable the the biggest play out there in terms of the revenue potential. it is going after the autonomous platform market which we think will be an 8-$10 trillion market globally by 2030. we are looking again for the data plays and of those with proprietary data. nvidia is focused on hardware. for every dollar of hardware, a.i. will pull through probably eight dollars of software. again, nvidia really important. a cornerstone stock has from
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five dollars to 450 dollars and they have done a lot of work. now, people understand it is out in the open. it is not the hidden gem it was. when we were looking at it as a pc gaming chip company. that is how people looked at it. >> now and a.i. play. >> exactly. exactly. >> kathy, as you said, you are in early. if you were looking at companies that have proprietary data. you're not the only person who says so. you are in silicon valley and it is the gold in the platform shift. why wouldn't you look to the big tech companies? who has more data than microsoft, amazon, google? >> they certainly have a lot of data. i think there are some disruptive forces at work.
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takes chat gpt. that could harm google mortally. it is either the worst thing that has happened to google or could be the best if it is lighting a fire. it is an advertising model at risk. amazon, chatgpt could cause disintermediation in e commerce just taking you, if you ask for a type of shoe. you say i want it at the lowest cost, lowest shipping costs directly within the next day, your service is evolving with chatgpt and it can just remediate amazon and order directly. there is a little more disruption in the magnificent seven then many people understand. >> google searching and building out the answer. chatgpt has this partnership with microsoft. microsoft is another mega cap getting all of the benefit.
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they needed the compute power. it all paths back to big tech. is that a wrong way of thinking about it? >> i just gave you two disruptions that we think. >> chatgpt is a part of microsoft essentially? >> what are the risks with microsoft? price to perfection. everybody knows this is a play. what could go wrong? well, there are political forces at work that are focused on data privacy. in europe, gdp are the privacy standards and they are much tougher. anyone doing business into europe is going to have to abide by them. they are starting to zoom in on a.i. and privacy.
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>> we haven't seen investors react. i want to switch gears. this year, you are seeing outflows even as you are rebounding. what does that signal? >> we -- our asset retention has been spectacular. everyone would agree. asset protection through 2021 and 2022. there would be natural profit- taking. there is something else that has taken place over the last year. i think we begin to see opportunistic trading in the mid-30s to the mid-40s. it seems to top out regularly in the mid-40s. we have broken through that.
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recently the flow picked up very nicely because there are traitors out there looking at our stock and saying wow, if it breaks out of this base, we could have a very powerful move. as you can see from the chart, we are still down. if you compare arp k to the nasdaq 100 you will see nasdaq is getting close to all-time highs. ar kk which is full of innovation is much closer to its lows. i think we are beginning to see investors shift from the nasdaq 100 or nasdaq and take losses and into our innovation fund because i think the values, when it comes to innovation are in our fund. >> where is that value? let's look at that chart on a
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longer-term basis. since the inception in 2014 disruptive business models. you take a longer-term view. over that time, arkk has underperformed not just the nasdaq but the s&p 500. how can investors view your proposition to them? >> i think they should put into context what has happened in the last two years. interest rates, the fed jacked interest rates up 21 fold. and a long duration assets, all long-duration assets were slaughtered last year. the bond market, that is long- duration as well but it is usually a flight to safety vehicle. the bond market last year had its worst year since sometime in the 1700s. if that was going to happen to bonds just because they were
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long-duration, that was going to happen to arkk and it did. now, where are we? the market is starting to look to the other side of the interest rate increase. they are starting to look at inflation which is crumbling. inflation is crumbling. i know a lot of people use the word sticky. you look at the leading indicators of inflation and they are coming down rapidly. we do believe we are going to see deflation with we are already seeing it in many places, but even in the broader based indices. the fed will have to adjust and we will be on the other side of the horror show we just went through. >> you have been talking about deflation for a long time. what makes you think now is any different? why should investors believe you this time when many others have been wrong about it?
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>> i don't think we have been wrong about it. when we were in covid, we were talking about inventory shortages that would cause supply chain problems and the inflation that would come with that. sure, we didn't know about russia's invasion of ukraine. when history is the judge, and it will be, history will judge the inflation we went through as the result of a massive supply shock to the system. they will look at the comparison not to the 70s which i know larry summers and mohammed a larry and have used that analogy. we went through a pandemic, the spanish flu. we went through world war i. we were on the gold standard. money supply had to fall as inflation went up. inflation went to 24% june of 1920.
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it dropped to -15 in june of 1921 and we moved into the roaring 20s. why? massive innovation. telephone, electricity and automobile. this. it is much more like that. get then like the 70s. again, history is the judge. it will look at the inflation chart which went like this and is going like this it will seem like it happened in a flash, even though going feels like we are in motion. >> kathy, one last question. i was on threads, as many people these days are. you have an account, so does arkin best, but you have it threaded anything yet if that is the right terminology. do you plan to use a? what do you think it's proposition is over twitter? >> i will not be using it, but our marketing team i sure know
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will be using it. the more productive social network for us at arkk's twitter. the knowledge workers, the innovators we wants to talk to are on twitter. we have established relationships with them. i can't imagine switching from twitter. that doesn't mean threads will be a failure. it will be just something different. it is not going to be what twitter is not test. many people may say you must regret missing nvidia. actually, not picking know what we moved into? more tesla. more coin based. those are up as much as nvidia.
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we are managing a portfolio. when we see one evaluation skyrocket and other valuations that should be responding to the same thing, artificial intelligence getting crushed, we know what to do with that. i don't regret it. what i wish that the media had focused on is how loud we were about nvidia starting nearly 10 years ago in 2014. every time we came on your show we said nvidia. >> kathy woods, it is always good to have you on. have a good weekend. >> you too. coming up, hollywood on strike. actors adjoining the writers on the picket line. a complete showdown of productions underway. no resolution inside. shares for warner bros., discovery and netflix are all in the red. we are just getting started on this cnbc special taking stock.
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there is a level of expectation that they have that is just not realistic. they are adding to the set of talent the set of challenges the business is already facing that is quite frankly very disruptive. they are not being realistic? >> no, they are not. some of the key demands pristiq the many rooms that have been popular with streaming companies and look to set standards for streaming residuals. a i a key factor in both negotiations. the alliance of motion picture and television producers saying it offered them a groundbreaking a.i. proposal that protects performers digital likenesses. however, the chief negotiator duncan crabtree rebutting that the proposal would have
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compensated background actors for one day of work in exchange for the rights to their likeness for the rest of eternity with no compensation. across north america disruptions on the west coast ports to starbucks workers. think tank could be the costliest strike to the u.s. they could pick that contract between the teamsters and ups expires july 31st. a lot of action and labor movements . coming up, we are taking a look at a stock that has been accelerating this year up more than 80% year-to-date. what is it? what is behind the move? taking a ride next. we are right back after this.
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stock we showed you before the break went right up like that is uber. they match that their ipo price finally from in 2019. it is due in part to the 81% gain. is behind its rise? can it keep going you have been pretty critical of that. you are bullish. >> i am. the major thing is the demise of the list as a formidable competitor sort of like managing the decline of the soviet union. it sort of happens in the rideshare wars are over and over one that is contributing to the potential for this
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company and this stock. >> what does wenning mean? do we see this company continue to move higher? when you were there wilbur was to bring other things. is ridesharing as disruptive as you thought it would be? i didn't have anything to do with the scooter that i was proud of what we did with uber needs. it is even though it is number two in the u.s. that market is growing really fast. back to the rideshare question, the reason they will continue to drive the price higher if there is a network affected to it. the more drivers and riders the shorter the weights time and the lower the price the company can offer. that flywheel means they are going to keep growing market
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share in most cities in the u.s., if not the world. that engine is pretty powerful and profitable for this company. i see it going higher and i am a holder right now.'s under uber 1.0 we saw them go to many different markets and burn a lot of cash in those markets. it sort of retreated. what happens now? do you think they are generating cash getting to profitability? they go back out? >> there is further cutting to do. the grocery business they did 1 billion for corner shop. i don't think it will be competitive against instacart. i think they are bloated at 35,000. i think they can make more profits by doing less than they are doing today. it is a reversal where it was free to invest in everything
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including autonomous vehicles. now, it is back to the future which the core business works. food delivery works. make sure you are doubling down and cutting out the extraneous and get profitability a year earlier. how about that? >> uber and some of the other economies were built during that area of hypergrowth or blitz scaling. i think this is interesting. you say there demise means the strategy actually worked. you can see that across other sectors. >> yes, for sure. there has been a lot of critics of hypergrowth because of the amount of money spent growing during that time. without that growth, uber wouldn't have been in 100 countries and doing food delivery in 70 countries. it would be doing what lyft did, with no durability. the idea of working for air bnb, it worked for uber.
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i think you're going to see the separation between number one and number two continue throughout tech. >> that is fascinating. over the last few years folks have been wondering what was all the money for. you start to see some of them reach some level of ability. what happens to lyft from here? >> it becomes an orphaned company. it doesn't have a natural acquirer. just not an interesting business for them at all. if i were the ceo i would be retreating to the markets. tried to get those two 50
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percent and focus on being a smaller more profitable company. >> what a change of fortunes. what a roller coaster ride for the industry. thanks for joining us. we will talk to you soon coming up, thanks to higher rates, venture debt is drying up and leaving startups strapped for funding. we would discuss that next old-school financials. the gig economy was so last week. the creator economy is the straw stirring this string. that, and more when text check
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venture-capital loans all but evaporating after the collapse of silicon valley bank. there are a few ways to find a company. is all talk right now. >> it has been so popular in the last decade or so. this type of them played a key role in upping startups in the past decade or so. that allow them access to
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capital without giving over ownership in the company which doesn't dilute business owners think of a robotics company or biotech. may be the most important factor , that was cheap nearly 0 interest rates for nearly a decade made it a no-brainer for a lot of reasons. it seemed it changed drastically when they started hiking interest rates making it more expensive. they can't swing as many big interest rates. all of this is now starting to show up in the numbers. they are reporting the value of venture debt down 67% year-over- year. early-stage lending hit the hardest by far in the volume was down by 40%. this lack of debt is separating and businesses that don't conserve cash will not make it. i think the next two years will
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be really, really tough. we are going to see a lot more failures. most companies who have not cut back and haven't been able to show progress will have a tough time staying alive. >> ryan gilbert you hurt saying the profitable startups will these options. they will get the funding that is pretty rare. to have j.p. morgan looking to fill the void. they hired dozens of bankers to beef up the startup lending business and please step in for silicon valley bank was. >> it will not be a silicon valley bank. they were very incentivized to structure dead in a certain way and sometimes it would give terms for a piece of the company or an option. j.p. morgan and blackrock and some of the big firms and banks don't want to do it in the family. >> the non-bank lenders have gotten there too. they don't have the same incentive that silicon valley bank had. the other thing i am hearing if
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the relationships are not the same. you can call a banker and say that is where you kept your cash. essentially your checking account you can call for a loan. that was a big thing. now, those guys are working different banks and the relationship has changed. they are sort of getting out of the rubble and it is not fixed yet. i heard death spiral. he heard earthquake. >> you do this and you are struggling to earn cash and also, that is a problem as well. a lot of the big lenders one cash generating businesses. the terms have changed a little too. it is still accessible to for profitable businesses. still have access, but the terms are a lot stricter. if you are going to a more established bank, you are exactly right. they are not going to have the incentive.
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that is not as exciting for a big bank as it is for silicon valley bank. really, you are filling the void and it looks like people haven't gotten over the loss of those key relationships. >> maybe with one exception if you are generative a.i . there is money to be found. >> it is like the blotting phenomenon. >> you can get whatever funding you want. kate, thank you for that. big banks kicked off running season with good enough results but with intact showing signs of life. could be back could be time to circle back? that is up next. there are currently more than 750,000 unfilled cybersecurity jobs in the u.s.
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big banks kickoff earnings season, one thing is clear. the bigger or the better. as wells fargo put it, goliath is really, really winning. that has led to higher net interest rates j.p. morgan. despite offering lackluster rates on savings accounts that are often near 0%, they have turned out to be extremely sticky. customers are parking money in the safety of large banks despite earning a mere fraction of the interest they would get from more competitive accounts sophia offers a 4.4 annual percentage yield. $100,000 in a standard chase
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savings account over 12 months returns $12. what is the angle? the have rebounded this year. it still trails the biggest of big bangs, j.p. morgan, by a wide margin over the last 12 months. doesn't really pay to be a disruption they remain sticky as interest rates remain at elevated levels. let's ask eugene. thank you for being with us. what do you say? were you expecting deposits to be this sticky? >> of course. well, thank you for having me on this show. it is great. i would say we have expected deposits to be this sticky. deposits is an extremely important part of the business model over the financial institution whether it is traditional or syntax.
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you put sophia api on the screen. so five deposits now cross $10 billion. that is an impressive number. they really did it over the past year. it is one of the reasons, we think, they have actually been able to access deposits and in a better position to win over the longer term than those that are not. >> what makes you think they are better in the longer term x have been increasing the deposit numbers but the fact is that chase savings account opera 0.01%. why are customers saying? a lot of folks haven't lived through -- well, at least in the younger generation, this era of higher interest rates. doesn't it become more clear? you are expected to shift? it is worse for the profit margin. that is what this is about in the end.
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the ones we saw this morning are pretty good. >> that is true. it is nice to have it on a lower level. the short answer is we believe the answer is yes. from the 95-99% of deposits with traditional banks. it may not be from chase which is best in class of a traditional bank but it may be from smaller regional banks or credit unions who don't have the capability. that is where we think the and closer coming from. to answer the profit margin, yes it is nice to have a low cost but it is also nice to have your price is high and it is all about the difference. when you look at sophia, you look at what they are doing with the money. they are lending it in person alone than they are earning quite a nice nii. >> at gunpoint. eugene, thank you for being with us. talk to you soon
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coming up, twitter reportedly paying creators tens of thousands of dollars amid intensive writing competioitn intensive writing competioitn withstening to what you want? what that means for the creative economy? that is next. never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪ i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out.
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the juiciest and i continues to be what threats.
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mark zuckerberg versus elon must. twitter started rolling out its direct payment to users through revenue shares. some of the biggest to counsel posted receipts that have been sent to them. what elon musk lanes is a new program to share the ad revenue that comes from the advertising in replies to your tweets. that is not a new model by any means. youtube has a durable and popular program where they share revenue with creators. interestingly it is not something that facebook or mehta has been able to make on a large scale. multiple reports that usage of threat has fallen back down to earth after a huge launch. has seen steep drops in daily active users and engagement. according to data from sensor tower and similar web. where do we go from here? what does it mean for these companies? she rose to fame on tiktok as a financial influencer and content creator. welcome to the show. thanks for being with us.
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what is your platform of choice and why? >> there are so many out there. i would say tiktok is where you really get an interesting audience. instagram rails is exciting and youtube really figured out the monetization model. i would say those are my top three, for sure. >> lopez best? >> i would say you to pass the monetization figured out the most. i think what twitter is doing is interesting but with twitter you want people to reply to your tweets so i am not sure it is the best model for society or if it will pay users what it wants to be paid. they have figured it out in terms of ad revenue and sharing that with creators. >> are you using threads? >> you have to be everywhere. offenders in the platform you have to go check it out. i think threads had some for a
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few days but it is almost too many options at this point. how is it different than what you are doing working on social media than what we're doing in a live broadcast? >> i tried to talk about the news every day and try to explain what is going on. just walking people through economic data depending on what came out that day and that wee . it is a little bit different than what we are doing our. and is real-time analysis. >> i'll ask about next week's earnings. i am curious.
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that impact their day-to-day lives in a meaningful way. it is just a bright spot that the economy is in and people want to learn about it. that is what i try to do with my content >> twitter is my favorite platform. you have so many amazing people sharing. 2 even though you caught a kind of toxic. you said it has these things but it is to your favorite? >> yeah. i think what you get there is really special. it is one of the tech platforms that has succeeded.
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it has become toxic recently just because of the engagement motto that has been put forward and how blue checks can be put forward. you can pay for those in you can be higher up. if you are responding your check will be going a little higher. that has been sort of disappointing and it has made the platform a little harder to use. twitter is interesting because they can't seem to pay their bills but they are going to pay creators. i am a little worried about that. >> i suppose they have to keep engagement up. i know what you are saying in that twitter is sort of a special place. it is hard to replicate. we'll see. it is the early days. thank you for being with us today. let's get a quick look at the markets before we go. the dow s and p are not that ended the week from the in the green given a boost after the solid bank earnings. take a look at the biggest gainers in the nasdaq 100. air bnb after a target hike
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while activision and blizzard also up 9% after the positive news from its proposed merger with microsoft. has been a roller coaster. some of the biggest lacquers on the nasdaq 100. they deliveries are taking a hit from teslas price were. it's take a look at next week. a busy week ahead. next week we have tesla. the fact it has had a good year you have a full roster in the following few weeks we get plenty of more tech. look at the state of enterprise spending outlooks. you know what is going to be interesting this quarter? the magnificent seven especially with microsoft and google. have been on this chair on the
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promise of generative a.i. last earning season you have to sprinkle ei -- a.i.

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