carmaker's demand. it is monday, july 17th, 2023. tom lee is here. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin >> the gang is here. >> oui oui there are red arrows dow futures are down 93. nasdaq down by 10. last week was an up week for the markets. the dow and s&p up 2%

the nasdaq up 3% last week what were you saying >> he'll be here. >> tom lee was right really tricky to make short-term calls. >> all based on the cpi which came in about what was expected. maybe cooler than that >> we will talk to tom next. hopefully he will not make another weekly call. >> i told him not to do that >> now the focus on earnings we have bank of america and goldman sachs and netflix and tesla on tap this week all starting tomorrow for the banks. we will talk about what you can anticipate this earnings season. 10-year treasury is 3% the 2-year treasury at 4.7%. yields are coming down

considerably >> here is something we have never said check out the move in wheat prices. >> what? >> wheat >> if you say so >> kremlin saying russia is halting the deal that allows export of ukrainian deal now aimed to alleviate a global food crisis to allow grain blocked by the russian and ukrainian crisis sg. >> you knew the deal was coming to an end. >> is that up 20 cents $6.22 a bushel >> it has been a while. >> we have not talked about wheat or corn. >> if you could not do the percentage move, what would you have said? you were a commodity broker. i think $6.22. i may be totally wrong

$6.82 a bushel still seems like a good deal >> what were they trading in "trading places" movie >> o.j. futures. >> it was a bushel of something at one point. >> they were doing bellies pork bellies those, i don't think, it's for bacon. it is an important commodity >> 60 pounds of wheat. >> $6? have i got that right? i don't remember don't hold me. it's early the world's second largest economy slowing in the second quarter. beijing reported gdp at 6.3% which missed of 7.3%. china noting youth unemployment hit record high of 21.3%. microsoft and sony signing a deal to keep "call of duty" on

the consoles the ten-year agreement shows the game remain on the sony consoles after fears of microsoft make certain names exclusive to its xbox brad smith tweeting that the company is focused on ensuring that "call of duty" is on more platforms and available. >> he tweeted it he didn't thread it, i don't think. i should check the thread. >> no one is threading it is down 1100% or something. >> they need more features going. >> i don't need more. >> i don't either. i don't need more. >> if they add some features -- they launched without -- you can't search text or threads they don't have hash tags.

a bunch of basic features if you are trying to match twitter. the next couple weeks, they may have it. there seems to be a lot of people doing it. we'll see. i don't know >> you were right with me. i slipped. i told you i wasn't -- >> how long did it take? >> what? what are we talking about? >> not responding to people. you know -- >> you might like -- >> i interviewed buttigieg you should see the fan boys that come out >> everybody is nice >> i don't want nice i don't want nice. >> at beginning of the party when everybody is nice at the party where late night it gets rowdy. >> exactly it is almost like any addiction. you shouldn't go to slippery

places places if you are an alcohol ic, you shouldn't hang out at a bar. i should stop looking or stop -- jared bernstein is on today. i'm worried. the hacks on that side of things and there are hacks on both sides go bonkers the fan boys >> stop looking. >> there is a program. >> what can i do is there a 12-step program >> we know there is a program on your computer you can use to block certain programs you can say -- >> i submit to the higher power. who is that? elon musk? >> tweet at him. we are new insight on twitter particularly on the financial performance. coming directly from elon musk musk tweeted telling followers the company's cash flow is negative with the 50% drop of

advertising revenue. the disclosure revealing that musk has fallen short of the predictions back in march that march would reach cash flow positive in june it was picking up in july, but linda yaccarino showed up in may or june. she hasn't had that much time to get going. >> why is he telling people that it is not a publicly traded company. >> he doesn't have to. >> it is funny he is still 200 bill cash flow negative it probably doesn't keep him up at night he wants to fix it if you are linda, you really have something to sink your teeth into >> he needs to get it together

>> worth 190 billion after a while, you don't i think he really thinks that he is doing a service to mankind. i think he believes that. >> do you think he is frustrated >> of course. >> how could you not be? >> keeping him from not doing measurements he would stop doing that stuff if he was that worried about it, he would not be himself. instead of saying twitter allows you to be yourself, which in some cases, it is not the right thing, but you have the freedom to do that took him a while to get the truck out. when i see it on the road, i may just stop and stare. they are so bizarre looking. >> joe is talking about the cyber truck. tesla building the first truck in the plant in texas after the shortage of the supplies caused a two-year delay

elon musk would like to produce 200,000 trucks a year giving the company a leg-up on the ev pickups over rivian and ford >> andrew, sorry >> it is still happening >> you know what the rundown. i'm following the runydown it says j.k. barry diller warning about the hollywood strike after the strike will lead to what is calling a devastating effect if not resolved soon. this will result in a drop of subscriptions and revenue will be down. he doesn't see agreement reached any time soon. here is what he told "face the nation." >> this is a huge business both domestically and world export. these conditions will

potentially produce an absolute collapse of the entire industry. >> also saying a.i. is over-hyped to death when it comes to the impact on writers and actors' jobs we will talk more about the strike and a.i. at 7:30 a.m. with walter eisaacson once you get into the situation where streaming subscriptions come down, barry said, if you believe that is the case because we will run out of new stuff, then that provides less money and revenue to produce new programs you get into the spiral that really makes it difficult. the question is when all of that will come to fruition. netflix has the best opportunity with the content on the platform with new stuff they will show you and it gets more complicated as you get farther and farther

out. >> the other competition is self generated on tiktok and youtube. >> i can watch "breaking bad" again. that's what is different that is where streaming -- i may not need new content for a couple of years. >> there are a lot of people -- >> i think people are watching "the rockford files" again and again. >> if you have four or five of these things, you may say okay you have to figure out where the economy is with a recession and then people will rotate. >> you have consumers changing behavior that is the big thing. you have to win them back. >> this is not when the movie industry and amc -- this is not what they need it has been a tough time through the pandemic no movies and they were already

down and on top of everything else no one is accusing actors of knowing the economics of the situation. this is the last thing that industry needed right now. coming up, tom lee will join us on saying the markets would go up 100 points on the cool wflation report heill join us after the break. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. ibm. let's create what i ngs could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. (bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. what will you create?

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last week, almost exactly a week, 6:15, tom lee joined us. tom lee joined us with the tactical buy that would be a 100-point gain or more on the s&p when the cpi came in cooler be expected. here's what he said. >> we saw a tactical opportunity emerging because the market soft off last week with the jobs strong and yields popped fed higher for longer and bearish into the week. i think core could come in at .2% or better it could be a huge downside surprise >> that reading did come in cooler than expected the s&p finished last week at 4,505. 3,398 last week. 107 points joining us to follow-up is tom

lee. the thing is, tom, you had to be right about the cpi. that was expected. you had to be right about the reaction, which is on any data that comes in, you never know because it is bad is good and good is bad. bad jobs numbers in that case, you had to be right about both and you had to be right about how large it was and timing which is not something you want to do a lot you will not do that this week >> as you mentioned last week, it wasn't wise to do that. yes, i don't think it was wise to do. i thought it was important at the time because our clients were nervous about hot inflation after the job report numbers we decided there was an opportunity to make a trade. >> it is a trade, but what was more important for me was that as we tested the 4,200 level, which most people saw a

reflreflex rally or rally in the bear market and to make the call above 4,200 and breakout of the range. that was significant i don't know what it means we can still turn and go back down to 4,000. that is what we have you here for. that will not happen >> well, 4,505 is an important level for markets because it is a 76% recovery from the 2022 highslows. now we closed above it, fa favorability is closer to the high >> that is interesting most people say the new highs

might be a couple of years away. you think we hit new highs this year >> yes. >> all-time high in the s&p? >> we will be well above the prior highs. >> well above the prior highs. >> yeah. >> what do you put the prior high >> 4,819 >> all right you think another 10% this year or more? >> or more i think there is a chance we could be close to 5,000 of the -- 5,000. a lot has to go right. >> i think the quarter with half of the s&p will post earnings growth by the end of the year, it may be 100% of the s&p posting earnings growth. there is still $5.5 trillion of cash sitting on the sideline that is almost $1 trillion higher than the start of the year there is still a lot of

skepticism inflation path has to be on the glide lower of th we are confident last week you may see .2% or less in august >> how much is this on where you see the fed? >> i think they committed to a july hike. that 25 basis points is there. i think there will be debate if that is the last hike in the cycle. >> and what is that in terms of your numbers >> one more hike and you can still get to all-time highs. something in november. >> i would say 25 or 50. we're sort of splitting hairs h here. >> that's right. one or two more hikes doesn't hurt all-time highs. if the fed thinks inflation is stickier and then maybe terminal rates fixed, that would be a headwind for stocks. >> tell me your bitcoin again.

100,000 by when? >> 200,000 within five years >> 200,000 >> yes. >> this is better than 100 points in a week five years is smarter. we could all be dead >> a better timeframe. >> we may not be there the window might be closing. >> 200,000 because? give us the thesis here. >> bitcoin is useful i think in the u.s., there is a tendency to think the financial system works well. for people who have money, it works well >> do you need an etf for that to happen or all things in the regulatory scheme to change for the numbers to get where you want >> it is flows i think bitcoin etf means people under estimate where that will be the multiplier right now is 4 to

1. $1 of inflows is $4 to the change in the bitcoin market cap. if you get $100 billion of demand -- >> if you don't get an etf, then what >> then you are going to rely on organic network effect i do think an etf is very likely, but that would be a very important and underestimated catalyst. >> great a lot of predictions there that will be tested again you don't shy away from it that's why we love you tom, thank you. when we come back, united airlines and pilots union reaching a labor deal. could there be a strike ahead for the automakers more on that story next. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back

united trstriking a deal with te pilots union phil lebeau has more good morning >> reporter: andrew, let's start off with united reaching agreement with the pilots union. a four-year deal wait, didn't they have agreement? they had one last year, but the rank-and-file rejected it. now another agreement. it guarantees raises depending on the seniority as well as the aircraft flown for the pilots to get raises between 35% and 40% shares of united this morning. not a lot of movement. the stock has been up the last month. shares of united and american over the last three months and you really do see the movement in airline stocks there. remember, both airlines are reporting earnings later this week we will talk with the ceos to get reaction and what happens

post-agreement remember, american has a tentative agreement with the pilots union let's shift with the big three automakers uaw will start with general motors this week the next month will agree on easy stuff the membership numbers here with 150,000 all together for the big three. the big three issues are preserving jobs, especially as the automakers transition to electric vehicle manufacturing which requires fewer workers and cost of living adjustments and wages and ending the hiring ti re tiers. people were not coming in at the same rate as the other workers there was a path to moving up to

top pay. those are the three issues there. if you listen to the rhetoric as you look at shares of gm, ford and stellantis, the rhetoric is clear from uaw they are looking for a big deal. a deal that gives their membership a lot of what they gave us over the last 12 years frankly, they also want a big bump in pay. they looked around the rest of the world, not just manufacturing, and they said a lot of people got raises the last four years. we want more that's at the heart of the discussions that will take place in detroit the next couple months guys >> phil lebeau, thank you for the double header. i appreciate it. >> you bet coming up, farmers insurance partially pulling out of florida. why the cfo says the company is the bud light of insurance that's what he said. that's after the break. plus, latest on america's weight loss drug boom.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. 89 points on the dow nasdaq getting back a little as well the s&p is off 7.5

it is the cathie wood story was interesting. about 50%. when you go down -- it was $9 billion from $30 billion that was investment losses and people exiting after getting back 50% of 50% doesn't get you back to where you were let's talk about florida this morning america's insurance crisis is deepening. farmers is the latest to pull out of florida saying it will stop renewing 1/3 of the policies in the state. this will impact 100,000 polic policyholders. the insurer facing backlash from the lawmakers. the exodus comes as insurance continues to increase on losses. posting a cumulative net loss of

$900 million in 2022 that results in thousands of losses against insurers. joining us to talk about this is jimmy pethokoukis. jimmy, good morning to you i have so many questions about what is happening, in particular, but when you talk about farmers and you talked about this being an issue of a company too woke and a company being compared to bud light. i'm trying to understand why >> good morning, andrew. great to be with you i think they have had chaos in the c suite. we got zero information before they pulled out. they were one with of the ima -- one of the major players to pull out of the state expecting carriers to be sustainable. i think they have put too much focus on esg if they leave esg and put it away and focus on the bottom

line, they may have not had to make the decision to leave the state with their tail between their legs >> the bottom line is if insurers are not making money in the state, since 2016, that is the bottom line. that is not being woke or bud light or any of the other social issues that other companies have been criticized for, no? >> we had two special sessions i'm the service processor for the litigation in the state of florida. the last special session was december of 2022 litigation has dropped 46% when i go in and look at the decision that farmers made in the background, i do say they are too woke i do call them the bud light of the insurance industry they have chaos in the c suite they have captive agents

they left small business people out in the cold. i'm frustrated i love to see them change course they just made horrible decisions and their financial bottom line is effective because they are moving their eye off the ball they focus too much on esg in my opinion. >> if they are putting too much attention on the bottom line, that means they are paying too much attention and losing money in the state or something else is going on. which one do you want them to follow here? i'm also curious about the pollicization about all of this which in a state where you are trying to bring business into the state, it has been unique to see a number of people in the state, including the governor, take very public positions against corporations in america. >> well, just this week, state farm doubled down and assured us

they are renewing their commitment to the state of florida. the changes we made last year were significant, but i tell people all the time that we are having a thawing effect on the florida insurance market of citizens will see savings of $600 million this year i license over 1 million insurance licenses in state of florida. i have agents which lost their livelihoods because a corporation moved out because they could not take care of their employees -- then i will call them out. >> you are not getting the whole gist of the matter why can't they run their business the way they run it is the state increasing premiums and they can't cover losses? >> the carriers are going through the process to raise rates.

we have interest rate inflation environment. under joe biden's administration, inflation is up 6% roofs cost more. everything costs more. i would hope that they would have been planning for this like state farm other carriers are placing in the florida market this is not unique in florida of the -- florida it is happening in texas and california andrew says this is facing our entire america >> jimmy, if they could make money, they would not leave. you can't expect a business to lose money and continue to stay there? >> i agree this is corporate chaos in the c suite. there could have been better decisions made i get frustrated with esg. that is good companies becoming weak because they embraced the rhetoric and continue to lead down a path where it is not in the best interest of the bottom

line or the customers and policyholders. >> it is not just farmers. farmers is among bankers and citizens and aeg all withdrawing since last year. it is not one company. a lot of companies who with -- who have said we can't figure out how to make money. >> hurricanes cost damage. 750,000 claims from hurricane ian alone. we have transformational special sec sessions last year of we dropped litigation alone in the state of florida over 46% this year. originally, the state of florida generated over 70% of all property casualty insurance claims nationwide. >> jimmy, as we show images of florida, frankly, suffering from

hurricanes and other things, doesn't this point out the issue of esg and point out the issues of climate change and all the things companies are focused on as somebody trying to take care of the economics of the state? >> i think all of that is fine and noble. when you have the blackrocks of the world doubling down investment in china and pumping dollars into a country burning coal with no filtration and no regard for the environment, then the hypocrisy in the community is rich. >> jimgjimmy, graeat to see you great debate look forward to talking to you soon. >> thank you, andrew >> have a great morning. when we come back, we have the latest on the microsoft activision saga. including agreement to keep the gamemaker's biggest name available to other consoles.

and indkatie stockton will n us to talk about the week ahead. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. investors bailing on cathie wood ark fund outflowing of $717 million from

the fund since last summer it now has shrunk to $9 billion due to investment losses and missing out on the rally of nvidia becky. s.e.c. losing the last-ditch effort to block microsoft's effort of the acquisition of activision-blizzard. steve kovach is joining us >> the last-ditch effort to block was lost now the ruling on friday night that deal came after they lost the case in federal court last week microsoft effectively has the green light to buy activision here in the united states. even sony, the strongest corporate opponent, to the deal has caved. signing a ten-year agreement to keep the biggest game "call of duty" on playstation it comes down to the uk regulator, the cma, which

blocked the deal this spring even those regulators changed their tune cma will submit new reviews over the deal david faber said they were investing the cloud gaming business to appease the cma. microsoft is on the hook to close tomorrow we are expecting to hear new terms to extend the deadline if the deal cannot get through in the next 24 hours. activision has the incentive to do that. regulators lost momentum and this deal which was once labeled all but dead is now likely to close. >> you think it will close before the cma approves or they will look at othercases where the eu is furious. >> the eu already approved it. >> furious for doing the same

thing. >> it sounds like microsoft's posture since day one will work hand-in-hand with regulators and wait for the green light from regulators. >> if there is a deal to cut to extend to august 29th, the new deadline, does that mean shareholders in activision will get a premium? >> i don't know. i heard david faber speculating friday last week saying there may be a dividend thing to offer shareholders they would not be able to renegotiate the whole thing. that has to go back to the board and shareholder vote. >> time is money >> time is money if you are activision, you are asking for something they did not close the deal on time $3 billion is less than $69$69 billion. it behooves them to let this go. >> steve, thank you. >> thanks. >> that's why you make the big

bucks. >> $450 million. >> $3 billion is less than $69 billion. >> that is math. that's more money than i make in a year. >> even in zimbabwe dollars? >> yeah. i haven't done the conversion. >> we're headed there. >> okay. coming up, weight loss drug booming with the eli lilly's latest entry in the market dr. scott gottleib joins us next

as the weight loss drugs heats up, eli lilly acquired th

drugmaker lost treatment joining us with more is dr. scott gottlieb the cnbc contributor who serves on the boards of pfizer and illumina. different? >> look, there's a lot of activity in this space i think the attractive feature for lily is this could be used in combination with the glip 1 drug, like ozempic that people are using for weight loss. this drug works by binding to a completely different receptor. it was initially developed by novartis, in certain muscle wasting diseases what they noticed is it helped build back muscle but also helped promote weight loss the concern right now is that patients lose weight when they're taking those drugs, they lose fat but they also lose lean

mu muscle the belief is if you could use this drug in combination with glip 1 drugs you also could potentuate weight loss without having the side effects of muscle loss along with that. it's being test insteaed in a p study. >> but then you could dial back how much of the ozempic or one of the other drugs you're using, and that would be good news because we don't know all of the potential side effects of those drugs yet? >> yeah, that's right. look, these trugs are being used in very high doses for weight loss, probably four to five times the doses they've been used in type 2 diabetes. we have a lot of history with these drugs, so we have a large safety database. but that's the use of these drugs at lower doses they haven't been used at these higher doses for as long of period of time you're probably going to unmask more of the side effects of

these drugs. at the higher doses, they're less tolerable this drug is delivered once a month through an iv formulation. i think the belief is if you could deliver this drug once a month, potentially subcutaneously in conjunction with these glip 1 drugs, you not only could fore stall some of the lean muscle loss, but potentially could lower the dose as well. you could use a combination of these drugwith the glip 1 and that could allow you to get more weight loss, more benefits with fewer side effects i think that's probably part of the thinking here. there's a lot of opportunities for lilly. >> i'm trying to get my head around the actual mechanism of what you're talking about, the ozempic and such there's that report on suicidal thoughts so you don't feel hungry anymore. so its mechanism is actually in

the cnf, the central nervous system is there some neurotransmitter that it's affecting? does that -- can you connect the dots to why you'd have these psychological side effects, or does it work, as you said, just on muscles where is the mechanism of action for ozeozempic? in the brain >> we don't fully understand -- >> great ten times the normal -- lose weight, we're taking ten times the normal doses for what is used for something really important and we have no idea what the medicachanism is. >> it's believed to act in dopamine reward system in the brain. it also works on neurotransmitters in the intestine, and that's what leads to the feeling of early fullness that's the local effect. there is a central effect and a local effect i don't think we fully understand the central effect. it is believed to act on dopamine reward pathways, and

that could be potentially the root through which it's affecting behavior if that effect is real i know the eu is looking into that as well >> dopamine is what makes you feel happy sometimes, right, or it's a pleasure neurotransmitter. >> and if you're not getting that >> if you're not getting it, yeah. >> i can understand -- >> right, that's why there's -- that's why there's speculation this could be used in other settings to try to reduce sort of addictive types of behaviors, impulsive behaviors. there's some speculation around that. >>s world health organization recently classified aspartame as something that could be a possible carcinogen, and obviously it's a soda sweetener, it's used in things like diet coke and diet pepsi. this comes after we learned that sp splenda, sub ra lows does cause dna damage

is there anything people should be doing with any of these artificial sweeteners, or should you just tell people to drink regular sugar? >> i would tell people to use these artificial sugars appropriately. i think the world health organization's own statement was you had to drink about 14 cans of diet coke a day to potentially see some risk. there were two world health organization bodies with conflicting recommendations. one saying it wasn't a con sin gen carcinogen i don't have concerns here we've looked that the very c closely when i was at the fda. there's been exhaustive studies that haven't demonstrated a risk they help reduce obesity, diabetes they're important for diabetics who want to have sweet products but can't have the effects of sugar. >> what about sucralose?

>> i would say the same thing. that's been looked at very exhaustively some of the largest studies have looked at these artificial sweeteners, saccharin has been around for a long time as well, and there was a determination made many years ago that that was a carcinogen and they retracted it. >> i didn't know that. >> i think we have a very large body of evidence with these ingredients. >> dr. gottlieb, thank you always great to see you. >> thanks a lot. >> back on the regular coke. i don't care it makes you feel better 12 ounces a day. if i have $100 billion and live to 93 like buffett, it's cherry coke he drink, right >> about to be 93. >> i'll take my chances with that and a pack of marlboros no, probably not. coming up, the dow had its best weekly gain since march and the s&p 500 and nasdaq also rallied last week. we'll find out what the charts are telling us about the next

level to watch. and walter isaacson on the role that ai is playing in the writer's strike. pretty big oneeay,'de ared rll i b dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

good morning, futures pointing lower as we get set for an earnings parade this week it's all about the financials microsoft drawing closer to completing its takeover of activision blizzard. the latest on an agreement to keep call of duty on sony's play station for ten years. and elon musk detailing cash flow problems with twitter, but at the same time tesla hits a manufacturing milestone. we're going to talk about all of this with walter isaacson. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square the gang is all together take a look at u.s. equity

futures at this hour on a monday morning. we've got some red on the screen 95 points down on the dow, nasdaq open down about 10 points the s&p 500 just under 8 points. let's show you treasuries right now as we think about what the fed is likely to do later this month, ten-year note right now 3.781, the two-year 4.723. crude oil we're going to show you where you can buy wti crude. you can do it right now at 74.35 a barrel crypto, we were just talking with mr. lee, tom that is, talking about the price of bitcoin. you're looking right now at $30,160. joe. >> microsoft signing a deal, we thought this was maybe in the works with sony now to keep the popular call of duty series on that play station consol a microsoft spokesperson said the agreement will span a decade whether or not gamers on platforms other than the xbox will be able to play call of

duty in the future there's been a big question hanging over microsoft's $69 billion bid for activision late friday a u.s. appeals court denied the biden administration for requests to keep the acquisition from going forward, but the deal still faces scrutiny in the united kingdom i think going forward in that sense is kind of okay. >> yeah. it's descriptive. >> it's descriptive of the deal going forward. it's almost as if you said the sun will go down at the end of the day. >> because that is -- >> it's actually correct where you're just not -- word salad just to buy yourself time for your -- >> until your head can catch up. >> exactly going forward. >> speaking of microsoft, the financial times is reporting that the european union's executive arm will open an antitrust investigation into the company, next week centered on claims that it is unfairly linking its teams software with microsoft office

sources say the probe is coming after moicrosoft concessions weren't enough for regulators and the company could face formal charges as early as this fall. twitter owner elon musk saying that twitter remains cash flow negative because of a nearly 50% drop in advertising revenue coupled with heavy debt. musk was responding to a tweet that he recruit investors that understand his vision for twitter. musk said need to reach positive cash flow before we have the luxury of anything else. it was only three months ago that musk told the bbc that almost advertisers had resumed buying ads on twitter. we're going to talk about this, walter isaacson will be at the table with us. let's get to dominic chu with a look a this morning's premarket movers. >> if you take a look at some of the interests analyst calls that are coming out this morning that are moving things around, we'll start with megacap telecom with

shares of at&t, which are lower around 160,000 shares of volume following a 4% drop on friday which put it at its lowest level in three decades we have analysts a the citigroup who have downloaded at&t to a neutral, legal risks tied to that big lead network infrastructure story that the wall street journal recently put out, while still expecting positive cash flow trends in the coming years at&t has been under pressure for quite some time losing nearly a quarter of its value of a year-to-date basis check out shares of state street down about 2 a% right now, following up on friday's 12% drop tied to earnings. this is a big custody bank, parent company of the asset manager, behind those big exchange rate funds. it's getting downgraded to neutral. the target gets cut to $71 from 70.50, based on other things,

weaker asset servicing fees ask higher expenses for those shares down 2%. we'll end on shares of chewy, which are higher around 20%. helped by analysts goldman sachs who have upped it from a buy rating exposure to less discretionary spending, people spend on their dogs and pets and everything else, bigger ecosystems of buy sk ers and subscribers. i know you're one of those guys who spends a good amount on pet food. >> four dogs i was alone too. i was on my own, my son and i. four dogs. they eat a lot they eat twice a day steph curry, not only did he get a hole in one in tahoe, but then he won -- >> with an eagle on the last hole. >> on the last hole. that's a reachable par i've played this that tournament i have a problem with athletes

playing golf i just decided i do because i've seen romo and i've seen like adam wane -- i've seen these it's not fair, man it's not -- you watch -- yeah, you watch steph curry make three pointers is that fair that you or i would have to play him don't you think he's probably a pretty good golfer or putter >> we know he's a good golfer. remember that time when he played in some of those like korn ferry tour events or he was in some of these other -- >> tony romo or steph curry? >> we know that tony romo has come close to qualifying for the u.s. open. >> he has. it's not fair. >> i interviewed -- that american century event i mean, here's -- i'm assuming that you watched the last hole play out did you have a problem, joe, with what those -- what that one fan did to mardy fish on the 18th tee box

>> i didn't see it, what happened >> mardy fish was in it with steph curry. the dude, probably a steph curry fan decided to yell out and swing in mardy fish's back swing on the 18th tee and he pumped the shot into the woods. there was a little bit of controversy, if you will, around some of that steph curry is unbelievable and he deserved to win, but you know, some golf games were pretty teed off by what happened there. >> i don't think this is possible, but how much does subway pay steph curry i'm saying 40 million a year is that possible maybe it's total entordorsement. >> between him running around after the hole in one. >> under armour, brita, jpmorgan, sony let's get back to the broader markets, bringing katie stockton, a cnbc contributor tom lee was just on.

he's a fundamental guy, katie. he was able to call the trend before it happened, and he was bullish right at the beginning of the year, but he now says that 4505 is the new support level for the s&p, and that this year will go to new highs above 4819 or whatever it was. i forget exactly what he said. t does anything you're looking at technically lend credence to that notion that 44, 4505 is the new low end of the range and will go to new highs >> that's not my support level, but what i would say that's positive about the market right now is that it does still have momentum, and it also still has market breadth last weak, if you wrecall, the targeted level for the breakout that we highlighted in may was about 4510, and that was reached last week. so to us it's actually more of a resistance area potentially than it is a support level at this

time the 60-day moving average is rising close to about 4285 or so so that shows sort of the nibble f gauge of the downside. and the hard part about that is the risk reward has gotten a lot less favorable with the target objective having been met, and then with that distance to initial support. we're staying with the market. we believe the uptrend has potential to forge through earnings season. we're very noncommittal at this time we want to be respectful of any down turns we do see because that would be indicative of potentially a significant retracement. pretty amazing that two smart people, one with fundamentals, one with technicals, one sees a support level at 4505, the other sees a resistance level at 4505. i guess over time you both could be right. >> 4505 could become support going forward. we would need to see significant upside follow through to suggest

that's the case in our work at least, because right now it's still intact as the potential resistance i love tom tom's great. we disagree on this point. the long-term gauges that we track, long-term overbought conditions are in place. that to me makes it more challenging for the s&p 500 to forge to new highs we do have a pending breakout this week in the russell 2000 in dex. if the russell 2000 closes above 1890 this friday, it confirms that breakout and the next objective there would be about 4 or 5% higher so still potential upside. we're still seeing positive catalysts, and yet, any loss of momentum would be pretty serious in our opinion. >> so they're also moving higher, the soldiers catching up with the magnificent 7 t does that mean the magnificent 7 continue to go higher or does it

just mean the soldiers continue to catch up with those leaders sf >> the rally in the magnificent 7 has been unrelenting it still is largely positive and even alphabet, for one, had already seen some consolidation and then advanced from it. i think they've proven to still have a good bid to them. maybe earnings will generate some more volatility for now we want to stay the course as well even if they lose their leadership stronghold and aren't out performing in the way that they had done, we do expect them to at least participate while the market's trending higher. >> when we had that adp report that was almost 500,000 and the ten-year went above 4, just went right through at 4% yield and the two-year went well above 5, and then it all broke down technically, what does that say about what we're going to see in either the ten-year or the two-year are they in a down trend now in yields

>> well, we believe that the corrective phase still does have a hold i know that's hard to believe after the up move we just saw. the very quick retracement that you're highlighting, less the breakout in the ten-year yield unconfirmed. so we have this retracement that we expect to continue, so we're looking for a deeper pull back in yields, the indicators that we track support that. obviously the two-year yields have very good resistance with very psychological significant around that 5% level we're looking for momentum to remain to the downside near-term. as you know, we have seen a secular shift in yeields. >> commodities, we talked about wheat. right at the top of the show, wheat. it's price per bushel. i got it right it was like $7 a bushel or something. what about oil and the commodities complex? we've heard of a super bull market from jeff currie at goldman sachs, and oil's looked a little bit better in terms of

for the longs, i think >> well, it finally got back above its 200 day moving average, and it actually did confirm a minor breakout above that threshold, so that tells us that crude oil does have the potential for upside follow-through, perhaps into the next resistance, which is sort of like 81 to $82 per barrel so we're looking for a greater relief rally, but we want to use that to reduce energy exposure the energy names, a lot of them had short-term breakouts that have already seen good upside follow-through, and that's within the context of weakened long-term momentum we want to use that strength to reduce the metals complex has gotten very interesting copper of course is under pressure this morning with the china gdp data, but we think that the improvement intermediate term momentum behind the metals, industrial and precious metals is significant ask nd that we'll s greater upside there as. >> okay, metals, you're talking

about metals, not gold >> including gold. >> including ing gold, silver, copper, right. >> totally different dynamics i would think, but all right, katie stockton, thank you. we have you on every monday, i think, just to get a feel. thanks maybe we do. >> pretty much when we come back, elon musk biographer, walter isaacson will join us for a wide-ranging interview on the problems at twitter and musk's view of artificial intelligence. we'll also talk about hollywood writer's beef with ai as actors join them on the picket line. and new data out from investing platform ellevest, we'll speak with the firm's ceo next

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let's talk a little bit about what this survey is or how you're measuring this. go ahead, explain. >> yeah, so i had a question about a year ago, which is how are women doing financially and economically, and there was no place that really pulled it together in one place, and so as the recovering research analyst that i am, we pulled together ten different metrics that can give us an indication of the financial health of women, things like women's participation in the work force, inflation, things like the number of women ceos, the percent of venture capital wrim g women are getting. >> what you found is you put this on a scale from 1 to 10 and you kind of graded on a running basis. i've seen the high, at least on the stuff i'm looking at was 9.9 in january of 2020 the lows like it was july of 2022 at 1.0. what happened between those times? >> yeah, and it's bounced back

now, so some tough things have happened one thing that's happened is, you know, there was a period of time there when women were leaving the work force today the great news is women's economic participation in the work force has reached record highs as the ability to work remotely has really brought women sinto the work force. inflation is something that hurts everybody, but it hurts women more, and so as inflake was ticking up, that was really tough for women but of course is now rebounding action on student loans. women have more student loans than men, have the majority of student loans, so you know, when there was the payment pause that was very good for women, but as it's been, you know, going to be reinstated, that can be tough for women. >> where do things stand right now? what is the latest roaeading >> the latest reading is up from the bottom, work force participation. inflation is kdown, areally goo

news the other thing that is a negative impact is the attack on women's reproductive rights. certainly it's a societal issue, but we also need to recognize for so many women and their families it's a negative economic and financial issue and so that with student loan debt, you know, the fact that the reproductive rights are being rolled back, and in the longer term, there's a negative as well, which is the impact of ai those smart folks at the university of north carolina are saying that something like about 80% of women's jobs may be impacted or it's less than 60% for men. so good news in the near-term. some real thunder clouds on the horizon. >> the latest number i saw was 3.5 for may. is that the most updated number, may of this year >> that's right. >> 3.5 is still pretty alllousy compared to 9.9 in january of 2020 what were the biggest issues that messed things up? if i was guessing i would say

does anything about going back to work have an impact >> that over time has been, but it's starting to be a positive for women is they're going back to work. it's built a little bit on sand. without the infrastructure in place to help women stay in the work force, things like mandated paid parental leave, which we don't have as a country, we saw in the pandemic that these things can be built on sand, and that if, you know, there's a shock even a macro shock like a pandemic or a micro shock like your kid is sick, your kid's having issues in school, there's no backup plan for so many women. moving into the work force is a positive but it's not built on a steady foundation. >> i didn't mean moving into the work force, i mean if one of the advantages was you were allowed to work from home, has that been taken away >> for some companies it is. for those companies har more of congressman a command and control and feel

like they need to have people in the workplace, for women more than men that can be a negative. there has been a shift in this country where it's being recognized that more and more jobs can be done remotely. and you get that, what is it, an hour a day back from not having to commute and, you know, i think it can be such a win-win for companies and for women and their families because say as a company, you know, you get half of that commute time dedicated to work ask and half of that commute time goes to the family, that's good for everybody overall. different companies have different cultures at ellevest we are fully remote, and we found we're able to hire people all over the country. for other companies, they feel like they need that command and control in the office. >> so you mentioned the student loans that people are going to have to be starting to repay was a big impact on women, more so than on men. >> we have the majority of student loans that are outstanding. you think about it, becky, it doesn't cost us anymore to go to college and get an advanced degree but that gender pay gap is

persistent that thing has not moved in a decade and so you have less disposable income to pay down that student loan debt. so this is more of an issue for women, and it's much more of an issue for women of color one thing i do want to know is we do see women continue to do the right things the majority of our clients at ellevest have recurring deposits into their investment accounts women don't have the resources that men do, but with the resources they have, they really are continuing to do the right things >> sallie, thank you, sallie kraw krawcheck. coming up, a tough opening, a weekend at the box office for one of hollywood's biggest stars, maybe the biggest maybe not. and can writers and actors settle their differences with studios over ai. we're going to talk about that with elon musk's isaacson.

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hollywood actors may be on

strike, but theaters are still open tom cruise's mission impossible, dead reckons part 1 topped the week box office with $56 million, and despite great reviews, that was below expectations, and it was behind the opening weekend for the last mission impossible film in 2018. the new smalinstallment costs c to $300 million to make. little to we know how close the world is to absolute armageddon a lot. and we don't -- we don't know what's going on, obviously, behind the scenes and there are people like this that tis-- the reason that we're here today awake and alive and everything else this is happening, at least nine times tom cruise has saved the world, so we thank him for that >> i can't wait to watch it. >> i can't either. and kwi don't really want to see

oppenheimer that much. i don't know about -- what's this freedom thing it's like all controversial, sound of freedom. >> the sound of freedom. >> i'm with barbie. >> this one's about -- >> you know, i think margot robbie is amazing. did you see babylon ever >> yeah. >> it's amazing. >> you're going to go see barbie. >> no, i'm not going to go see barbie i don't know if i'm going to see oppenheimer. i'm going to see mission impossible. >> i like oppenheimer. >> you do? >> kind of a serious subject, is it not bring you down to earth a little. >> made by our parent company. >> still to come this morning, president biden taking a victory lap after last week's cpi report indicating inpoliceflation is cg faster than expected. plus, bob iger saying the actor's union not being, quote,

realis realistic. "the new york times" jim stewart has more on a strike paralyzing the silver screen. walter isaacson has a look at y those in show business fear they're going to be replaced by new technology "squawk box" is right back power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

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welcome back to "squawk box. twitter owner elon musk revealing over the weekend that the social media company is cash flow negative. in a tweet musk said that's thanks to a 50% drop in ad revenue and heavy debt load. the latest central threat to twitter has come in the form of meta's thread that gained 100 billion use rs joining us is musk's biographer walter isaacson, ha book coming out in september he's a cnbc contributor ae and o much more. it's so nice to see you. >> great to see you. >> let's talk about this news over the weekend, we were actually discussing why did he put that out there, do you think? >> first of all, he's impulsive. he will tweet anything that's in his head you know, his management of twitter has been because he really loves it and he loves putting out impulsive tweets and he loves the contentiousness of

it his favorite line in the movie is are you not entertain, that final line of the gladiator. >> so do you know what his take is on threads at this point? >> he finds it boring. >> uh-huh. >> he may find to boring, does he find it nerve wracking in terms of thinking about it as a genuine competitor we were talking about it earlier, it doesn't have the feature set yet at all to really compete with twitter in materials of on a just daily thing, it doesn't have hashtags, you can't search it. i mean, twitter has a product that sort of technology un underlying it is heads and shoulders better the question is whether people find the conversation on twitter better or worse than what's happening on threads. >> it is more contentious on twitter. there are more features. for three or four years, twitter

rarely added features. one of the things in my book that i try to explain is he gets rid of 80% of the engineers, and yet, every night he's sitting there adding a feature, put up video, be able to rewind video, be able to have, you know, spaces so that there's all sorts of talks so he's adding engineering features even as he stirs up the contentiousness that i think scares away some advertisers. >> i'm just trying to understand where he thinks and what the company thinks about the competition. >> he loves competition. >> this is really the first time there's been genuine competition. blue sky and all these other companies -- >> you thought blue sky was going to do better than it did. >> no. what i'm thinking is so interesting about this, is the network effect issue. >> what about clubhouse? >> clubhouse i didn't think would last because i thought it was a hot moment, we were all stuck at home and then i

actually thought that twitter with spaces could actually -- >> i think musk likes competition. i think competition is good for twitter, and i think that it's going to force him to add more -- >> does he care about losing money and having to keep paying -- >> you know, i don't think his biggest motivating fact is the amount of cash flow -- >> no one likes to lose money. >> that's what i mean. >>i think that if he wanted to make money he wouldn't have bought twitter he wouldn't have sent rockets to mars, and he probably wouldn't do electric vehicles he's not mainly -- this is the theme of the book, demon motivate him, but money isn't number one. >> you got your dodge answer ready i'm sure for this one. you have a relationship with elon, and obviously you're writing a book. >> i'm a biographer. >> i think that if you were not

doing that, i think you'd be much tougher on him from where you stand. >> read the book and you'll figure out how i -- >> in general, when we ask you, you give him benefit of the doubt a lot here i wonder if that's because you're conflicted because you're close to him and writing a book about him. >> he can say what he wants at this point. >> look, when you get up very close to a person as i have for the past three years with him, you understand that person you understand the motivation. >> all of his faults that the left like to point out so many up >> he has a demon mode that is destructive. when you add a biography, though, how do you take the dark threads and realize that you can't just pull them out, that he wouldn't be who he is without both demon mode and his drive. >> and by the way, are you more impressed with him after es spending that much time with him? >> i'm more impressed with him as an engineer i think he does not have a

fingertip feel for empathy, emotions. >> i want to pivot on top with you for just a moment. elon musk, mark zuckerberg, this cage fight situation does this make any sense to you? >> i think we're watching the cage fight i think it's a metaphor, no intended for the meta fight with twitter. but we're not going to duogo toh coliseum. >> i think mark zuckerberg does, i think two sons who are twins who think of both of these guys as their heroes and it is not good if you're in my family, in a civilized society, i don't want them fighting >> i think it was his 30th birthday party, tallulah riley who was married to a british actress, they put on a japanese pageant somewhere: and part of it was a sumo wrestler, and typical of elon musk he could n help jumping in the ring he threw out a couple of disks he's had three operations since.

he is not going to go into a cage match. >> i don't want either of them getting hurt to be honest with you. >> and what about your kids? >> i don't want my kids thinking this is, you know, the way to resolve problems let's switch gears for a second, talk about ai. a fascinating op-ed, but we've been talking about this strike going on in hollywood right now, and there's a real concern that ai is going to take writers' jobs i am sympathetic to this do you think that is real, true, over hyped, under hyped? >> it is real and true, and it's amusing to me, putting yourself into the category. that for more than 200 years since the advent of the industrial revolution, technology has been disrupting jobs it disrupted the jobs of the weavers in england when the looms came in and became known as luddites. now suddenly technology is

disrupting jobs. >> white collar jobs. >> who deal with large language model type projects. yes, it's going to be disruptive suddenly it's a whole new thing. it is not blue collar workers getting disrupted. it's writers getting disrupt ced it's going to happen because ai is going to replace the productivity of writers. >> what about all three of us, meaning you're starting to see video that ai is able to produce. you type in a script, the script in this teleprompter and you take our images and all of a sudden you can move our lips and maybe get our voice going. how far away from that >> i think about ten years >> ten years >> we'll be all right. >> that's all we got, though, ten years? you want to work for the next 30, right? >> 25. >> it sounds like you've only got ten. >> my window's wide open i'm going to keep using that. >> it forces you to think about what are we bringing to the party here >> what are we bringing?

>> human empathy that we talked about before. >> we're the last stand. we're going to be here when a lot of other things have fallen by the wayside maybe not for your -- >> we can only hope. >> it is true that writers, especially, i mean, i was road reading on twitter people who are using generative ai, write me a script for this or that, they're somewhat surprised about how good the scripts are this doesn't mean they'll totally replace writers, but a writing room of ten people can be a writing room of two people. >> when you think about transitions and you studied all sorts of transitions, some of the great innovators, there can be an economic impact. what do you do about it. you think about sam altman who's put together open ai and

chatgpt. he's talked about universal income is that something in the offing? >> sam altman and elon musk started open ai because elon musk goes upstairs at a party into a closet with friends trying to stop google from being able to buy deep mind, something that's the first large a language model and deep learning model. >> he goes into a club. >> they want to make a phone call it's a party, and they go upstairs and he's become frightened about what ai can do, not just to replace him, but to leave them behind, and so he creates a chip in the brain that allows you to connect to your computer he creates open ai with sam altman he's been very concern about a i not being aligned with human values. >> go back to the transition part, the economic transition. if you are the writers right now or you're the actors or you want

to -- you could be the studio head, how do you make that deal work in an environment where you have a group of people who think they're about to lose their jobs and you have another side, by the way, that thinks they're losing money actually right now given the economics of streaming. how does that -- how do you heamake that work? >> you can only sort of rail against the tide for a certain amount of time, and then ai's going to come. never in human history has the advent of technology actually reduced the total number of jobs it just disrupted certain jobs, whether they're buggy whip makers or elevator operators or people making cars on assembly line now it's going to happen to writers. it's inevitable. you're going to have to make a deal that i hope doesn't restrict the advance of tech mo technology you may have to pay people more, but in return you're going to have to say you'll have to adopt technology. >> that is the recipe for a very

long strike in hollywood it sounds like. >> it may be, but if they continue to say that long strike you might have people creating content without them given ai, so there is an incentive to say let's figure this out. >> you think the pressure is on the writer side of things. >> a lot of pressure on the studios as well, and they're losing money you had a -- y'all did an interview with iger that was pretty convincing. >> final question, cyber truck finally coming up the production line have you been in one >> oh, yeah, sure. >> and >> well, there's a wonderful scene i do in the book which is about six years ago when he's sitting there with his designer and they're looking at a ford truck. and he said, no, these things are boring it's just like twitter, it's like he doesn't like to be bored. and he puts up things from movies, from sci-fi, from video games and says i want it like that, and everybody's pushing

back on him at this meeting. >> telling him no? >> yeah. stop it. we're going to do it we're going to make it edgy, so i think cysign cybertruck. >> it does look awesome. >> i'm not the type who would buy something just to make a statement coming ting down the , but i think a lot of people will like it. >> always great to see you we appreciate it >> thank you, andrew >> so many teslas around i remember the hummer, i thought w the hummer was sell by the wayside. >> it's kind of quirky because you're buying something -- >> it's pretty cool, yeah. >> but it's electric you're feeling the two sides of the -- >> electric hummers. >> yeah. we'll see how they do. when we come back, we've got more financial earnings. so far banks have beaten expectations, but we are about to get into the regionals. we'll speak with a top analyst stay tuned, you're watching "squawk x,anth icnbo" d iss bc

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the chief executives of intel and qualcomm are reportedly planning a visit to washington this week to talk about u.s./china policy. according to multiple reports, the ceos plan to hold meetings with u.s. officials to focus on export controls and market conditions no official word from the companies, but in a statement to cnbc, intel says its ceo pat gelsinger is currently in china right now and plans to return home this week rn up medicalnext, we're goingg into the result from the big banks and look ahead to more results come days and a reindeer as we head to break, you can always -- missing an m >> is that rudolph >> i think it meant reminder i out of just said reminder.

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jpmorgan, wells fargo and citi all doing better than expected last week and b of a, dead money for quite a while. we're going to get some key regionals. we're joined by barclay's managing director and senior equity analyst jason goldberg. suddenly i got really interested in the whole subject by thinking about some of the issues it is kind of an interesting time to be in banking, is it not? >> there's always something going on in the world in financial services >> it is possible to make net income that helped the banks. when the fed goes up 550 basis points, duration risk seems like

it could be a big problem and we saw it in a couple of places where it was a major problem how come the rest of these guys were able to manage it, as you said in. >> i think what you've seen earlier this year in silicon valley and first republic and signature was really poor risk management i think certain banks always position themselves for various interest rates environments and that's left with banks that completely mismanage a situation. by and large the vast majority of banks in this country have much sounder policies. while you may see some pressure going forward, nowhere near the degree you saw at those institutions >> one other thing you brought up last week was a long-term citigroup chart. it was up 40-something that masks what really happened. i don't know if we have the chart from last week that we ran, but there was a 1-for-10 split. that's still a $4.80 stock

there were two guys. one guy was named chuck, one guy was named jamie before and true wrote his book what was the difference between chuck and jamie? >> i think it goes back to your initial question it's risk management you saw prior to the financial crisis was citigroup take on a loss of risk, subprime mortgages and completely mismanaged the balance sheet. it can wreck a financial institution. in the case of jpmorgan, didn't take on concentration risk, managed appropriately and sailed through the crisis and you're seeing those with stronger management teams are outperforming those that don't have the same -- >> okay, who is sitting on a lot of commercial real estate that could be a major problem >> we focus on the top-20 banks

which by and large are not focused in commercial real estate it's a select few. we we're as you go down the spectrums, there's a lot of regional banks with outside exposure where you're seeing cracks you saw non-performing assets and charge-offs. it's certainly something to keep an eye on down the road. but nowhere near the degree of systemic risk we saw earlier this we're. >> so we're in pretty good shape overall? >> very manageable >> how about morgan stanley? are they going to continue to -- they never really left the pack behind but gorman's done a pretty phenomenal job. >> very well the near term there are certainly some challenges. trading down year over year.

there are some near-term market pressures. we did see improvement in june >> how about bank of america >> bank of america, i think you'll see this quarter, you saw the biggest banks provide with decent income. we think the biggest banks are outperform our concern is later with the regionals, we expect them to come under pressure as the cost of deposits continue to rise >> is it wrong for me to think banker america is somewhere in between citigroup and jpmorgan >> i think that's a fair assessment bank of america and citi did not handle it well citi, you had a ceo change about

a year ago >> you got regional buys >> our buy recommendations are slanted towards the biggest ones >> which ones? >> jpmorgan. we thought wells fargo had a eyod quarter friday. th should do well as well. >> jason, thank you. >> thank you >> that was pretty good. pretty good. who knows. >> when we come back, white house counsel of economic advisers member jared bernstein will join us to talk about inflation and jobs with the soft landing debate still raging on wall street. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

good morning futures pointing to a lower open the markets will now focus on earnings reports as another big wave starts tomorrow inflation showing signs of cooling. jared bernstein on how it will impact bidonomics. and hollywood on strike. barry diller issuing a warning for the entertainment industry as the final hour of "squawk

box" begins right now. good morning welcome back "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin >> hello >> hello hello. >> we've been together the last couple of hours. >> but it's still nice >> it is >> it's possible people on the west coast are just joining us >> if they're early risers >> but not early enough, are they >> wake up >> i think the dow was down 2% last week, s&p and nasdaq up about 3% and yields interesting to watch, we went running up above 4 on

the 10-year and above 5 on the 2-year they came back down to earth just as quickly. katie stockton said she thinks they're a little bit back down but then back up depe depends on the economy and what the investors does microsoft and sony signing a ten-year deal after closing the blizzard acquisition there were fears that sony talked about with all of this. it does come after the ftc launched its last-ditch effort to block its deal with activision the ftc is seeking additional documents related to pfizer's acquisition, sending the request to both companies. thele proposed $43 billion

takeover was announced in march as a way to boost pfizer's pipeline in cancer therapies pfizer shares off just barely. seagen shares down by 50 cents and after a two-year production delay because of splay chain issues >> and let's get to senior markets commentator mike santoli at the new york stock exchange for one of his senior moments. mike >> that's right. i'll give you a senior minute here, joe. as you've been saying, strong week for the broad market last week it seemed like a long shot economic scenario at the beginning of the year by many, which was basically inflation

coming down faster than growth receipts the market has taken a fair bit of credit for it it's a very strong trend at this point on a one-year chart. even the pullbacks have become much shallower and briefer this brings up the possibility of a recovery, which has the market traveling a little too far too fast and taking credit, making position and sentiment a little too frothy in the short run. we're losing some seasonal tailwind take a look at the nasdaq 100. over two years, like to look at the whole, kind of down and then up pattern, just to show you this has largely been retaking a lot of the territory lost in 2022 this is against the 50-day moving average, too. if you look at those moments when we had a pretty good spread when the index accelerated well above that average here, you had

some points where it was time for a pullback that was in august in very late 2021, it's not quite as extreme as it was right there. up also see , you also see how the trend line is going. the bar is higher for good news, it will feed this rally. and the high beta stocks in the s&p 500, the more volatile ones, they've accelerated beyond the s&p as well. a lot of this stuff, joe, is like a bull market acting like a bull market. even if i look at the positioning stuff, people were more long than they were a few months ago it's not extreme if we're in a bull market. it's kind of unremarkable, those levels of participation. if we're still in some kind of long trading range, maybe it shows near term overheating. >> you mentioned the russell

before katie stockton was talking about that, acting better than some of the average, which could be good for the averages, right? >> exactly it is another clue that the complaint that has been prevading this market for months, which is it's too narrow, that really hasn't been the case since at least memorial day and was only the case for march, april, may. so, yes, the russell 2000, the rate and credit sensitivity of the russell has made it a lagard up to this point but now it is trying to catch up anyway. >> okay, mike. thank you. >> meanwhile our next guest says there are too many bulls in the market and he's worried about a melt up. for more on this depressing news -- no, for more on the markets good morning to you. we had mr. lee on earlier, who had some nice optimism to him. it sounds like you're happy

about where inflation is going but less happy about how the market's taking it >> well, i would like to see a civilized bull market here i am concerned about a melt-up they're usually followed by a meltdown if we have a pullback, the word is pullback rather than construction i think that will be a healthy development but i'm still targeting 4600 by the end of the year or by the end of the week i haven't quite figured out the timing >> let's talk real economy and then we'll come back to the market where do you think we are on inflation and what the fed may or may not do come this summer and this fall? >> i think the market is kind of overjoyed with a disinflationary, soft landing scenario i organize that it's a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. now i think we're in a rolling

recovery >> you think the recession piece, we've passed that >> i think we have and i think we have had -- for those waiting for a recession, i think we've had it all along it's just been hitting different sectors at difference times and we've had strength in other areas. >> do you give a standing ovation to jay powell? >> well, i do actually usually wall street economists and strategists like to be contrary and to say that the fed is not on the right track. but i think they actually can say mission accomplished i hope they don't because that will be a jinx but, look, inflation is down to 3% on a cpi basis, on a year-over-year basis i think disinflation is now made in china the market's down today because of weak china data, but a couple of days ago it was up because of better-than-expected ppi

>> jared is going to be on he's going to come on, he's going to say we had nothing to do with inflation being ignited in the first place, but we have everything to do with inflation coming down because we passed -- >> yeah, of course he will >> and i was going to say to him, jared, instead of -- no one really believes that, so it doesn't help your case it just sounds like -- why don't you say the fed brought down the inflation rate but we gave the economy enough positive things that the economy held up in the face of -- >> absolutely. >> i would sell it that way. >> but that's what they've been saying they say we can't tell the fed >> they say that but none of the policies have been implemented yet and a lot of this is just recovery after the pandemic. you said earlier they're going to take a victory lap on

inflation. the inflation reduction act hasn't been put in yet inflation is coming down because of the fed but we've had good job numbers every friday if you're going to sell something that people might not immediately dismiss as just total b.s. -- >> what about the supply chain stuff? that's the biggest piece of it >> how do we manage it >> pretty well >> because of the nature of journalism and fiscal stress, there's a focus on monetary policy in washington i think it important that a lot of what happened in the last few years has occurred because something very different has in fact occurred and that was pandemic and the pandemic had shock waves that caused inflation and supply chain disruptions. >> today the deal to allow the ukrainian -- >> that can be troublesome >> well, who managing supply chain, ed?

the government management or the private sector worked its way around the supply chain issue? >> i think the response of the government to the pandemic was to overstimulate the economy >> larry summers even said that. >> too many relief checks. >> do you give them credit for what they did at the ports with the supply chain did they make mistakes there >> i'm not into blaming folks. my kind of objective analysis of what happened is that the stimulus from all these checks created a buying binge we all got cabin fever from being at home for a couple of months and when we started to -- >> months? years. >> well, the lockdowns -- >> yeah, i know but in general it was a lot longer than a couple -- >> we had a buying binge and we couldn't buy services so we bought goods and that's really

was caused the course to clog up by the time it got through the bort ports, consumes are said no mas. >> how was the supply chain solved and reopened? >> because -- i don't like to give the government a lot of credit for things. >> i don't either. >> i think in this case we had buying for goods and then suddenly demand for goods was such that inventory piled up and we had disinflation in the good market i would argue inflation has been ironically much more transitory than persistent. >> let me ask you one last question with that 4600 target of yours how much of that is going to be a function of text and otherwise the nasdaq going up versus the rest of the market, given the heavy weighted element that is tech in all of this?

>> yeah, i think mike santoli got it right the market is broadening out beyond 4600 i'm looking for 4800 to 5,400 00 in the next 18 monts and i think e rkthmaet will in fact broaden out >> ed, it's great to see you this morning thank you. i hope you're right. >> well, we'll talk about this all again in just a moment when we come back inflation is showing sign of easing how does that play in bidenomics jared bernstein will be our special guest. that's next. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. while inflation remains above average levels, the consumer price index report shows signs of showing, suggesting price increases are easing across the united states. joining us now with how the president's economic agenda fits into all of this is jared bernstein, the president of economic advisers.

welcome. this is good news. you think this is mission accomplished >> oh, no. no victory laps, our work is not done but we're very happy to see some breathing room for american households 12 months year over year of inflation decelerating we have gas pryices down north f $5 to $3.60 so far if you think about the 70% of our gdp that's consumer spending, that's one reason why we've continued to defy, i think, recession redictions. the macro economy has continued to, supported by a persistently robust labor market is really helping. as your team well knows, you ever don't usually see 6 percentage points decline in inflation with an unemployment rate stable at 4% for 17 months

in a row that's a very low sacrifice ratio, also good news for american households thus far >> that is great new but i don't know how much of the previous conversation you heard >> i heard a lot of it >> this comes after a very different sort of situation. it was the global pandemic like we haven't seen before it was the messing up of supply chains and that really caused some massive problems. i don't know how much that's been straightened out. there were some big checks being sent by the government or sent out to people that started with trump but it continued right through the biden administration there was a will lot who were critical saying those checks should have ended sooner it's hard to pinpoint who is responsible for what and you've got the fed in there raising rates. >> no question that was a very good description of the mash-up of a lot of things going on. by the way, all that makes it incredibly exciting to be working with the cea over this

period i think a good way to maybe organize our thinking around both inflation's increase and its deceleration is this two-thirds of disinflation over the past year is to kind of go through what you just did in the following way. the factors that led to inflation's lift-off are the combination of strong demand intersecting with constrained supply some people like to put expectations in that calculation but thankfully they've stayed anchored as inflation has rolled over -- i heard ed yardini use the transitory word. that's not me, that's him. as inflation has rolled over, 12 months in a row of decelerating yearly deflation, and this i can clarify, we've had an unsnarling of supply chains i'm not saying a victory lap there either but there are indexes of supply chains in the ism and the new york fed and it

has come back way back close to where it was prepandemic and you can track that with core goods prices they follow that trend on the wave down. the fed does its work on the demand side. but if constraint supply crashing into strong demand is the reason inflation went up so high, unsnarled fly with some demand pullback is why we're seeing it i think slow >> will you actually cite me that i sort of gave you that idea that you don't have to just say the ira, the inflation reduction act, is already working because it's not implemented, you don't have to oversell things but the biden administration kept the economy strong enough to withstand it to have these great job numbers every month. >> that is -- that is -- >> you came up with that

i'm going to start writing stuff for you. >> let me give you a reference go back to the op-ed the president wrote in i believe march of last year he outlined exactly what you just said. this is a story we've been telling for a long time and i think the facts have shown that's very much in the spirit of what i just described and i think we're circling around that our measures have helped to do two things andrew was on to this a little bit. we helped the liftoff of really the strongest labor market recovery that i've probably ever seen, certainly in generations and this has meant really important things for worker bargaining power, a key pillar of bidenomics. but we've been clear on the supply side. back in june of 2021, the president set up the supply side disruption task force.

we worked in close partnership with our private sector partners in the ports, l.a., long beach, we had a port envoy out there helping. we did help on the unsnarling side and i would agree with you, the rescue plan very much set up the solid recovery we're still in >> hey, jared, let's just talk about another thing on the horizon that could mess some of those things up. you've got the potential strike for the auto makers, you've got the bill that was allowing -- the russians allowing ukrainian wheat to get through that expired today now you're going to be talking about some potential choke points what do you do about those there's a lot of issues better than they used to be but not cleared up and some other potential things looming on the surface. >> well, you know, you're introducing an important set of points, which is that every economy, including this one, is facing both headwinds that you just ticked off and tailwinds,

which you've been talking about thus far now, i will say that over the course of this expansion, this economy has faced just an unceasing parade of headwinds and we muscled through we have a consumer spending share of gdp, about 70% and you were talking about the savings that built up over the lockdown. the combination of strong savings and a very strong labor market delivering real wage gains is supporting that consumer side of the economy and that continues to form well. we have to keep our eyes, though, very much on the head winds that you just mentioned. that's a big part of our job at cea. >> i know you don't want to intervene with what the fed is is doing but some have looked around after these numbers and said, hey, maybe this will be the last rate hike the end of this month, maybe one or two

more without telling the fed what you think they should be doing, do you think we've gotten to a better place do you think inflation has been choked off and if we're patient, you'll see it get back to that 2% level >> well, i can't talk about the fed, as you said i will say if you go back again to the piece that i referred to by the president, he said that we will absolutely respect and protect the independence of the federal reserve and i think that decision looks very smart, particularly compared to the prior administration i think inflation numbers, they speak for themselves the 12 consecutive months of year-ov year-over-year decline by the way, on my way out here, i looked at the quarterly rate headlines. core and these are three-month annualized 5.1% in q1, 4.1%, down a full

point for the core in q2 so i think the inflation record has momentum, it's moving in the right direction but no victory laps, our work is not done we have continue to providing relief for middle income households that's why i think the biden program is so important moving forward. the cost of insulin is already lower thanks to the ira and coverage in the aca, $800 a year for about 13 million families, they're saving that as they join the exchanges. that's part of the ira other measures on prescription drugs are yet to come. >> i want to thank you for your time today always good to see you, jared. >> you, too. >> coming up, early ali baba and mitchell green of lead edge cap capital will tell us what he's

looking at in the sector we're coming right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. we have special news about the new newest member of the "squawk box" family. chloe was born 6.3 pounds, 18

inches long. look at that beautiful baby. we are so overjoyed for the whole family and you can see their proud puppy kibba is already best friends with her new little sister and we can't wait to meet chloe. what a beautiful, beautiful picture. congratulations to the whole fam. >> i look back at some of my kids' baby pictures and i thought they were really beautiful. they turned out beautiful but some of them i look at now -- but that baby's a beautiful baby they turned out beautiful but right at the very beginning, you know, first couple of things with those halts and i look at them now and i'm like i thought they were god's gift >> henry sorkin -- yeah, looks great. >> coming up, hollywood warning of a potential collapse of the

entertainment industry if the strikes aren't settled sunday. jim stewart of "the new york times" will get into the big issues between the writers, actors and studios that's coming up next. "squawk box" will be back in just a minute. ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner. ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) our financial planning tools and advice can help you prepare for today's longer retirement. hi mom. that's the value of ownership.

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some breaking news from ford this morning we want to get right over to phil lebeau. good morning what can you tell us >> take a look at shares of ford, the company announcing it has cut the prices for the f-150 lightning and cut them substantially, between 7 and 16% depending on the price of the model that you're looking at so for the base podmodel, whichs at 59,000 now comes down just under $10,000 and the base price will start at 49,995 the company says it has capacity and they're also stoking demand. you don't cut prices 7 to 16% unless you are trying to stoke demand as you take a look at shares of ford and rivian, we're pointing

this out a lot of people say the f-150 has a waiting list, there's tons of people waiting for it, it's the best selling electric vehicle for pick-up trucks it is not. that was the rivian. ford cutting prices for the f-150 lightning between 7% and 16% bringing the base price starting to under $50,000. guys, back to you. >> phil, you think that's directly because of rivian taking the number one spot, they want to win that back? >> i don't think they looked at rivian and said, oh, we have to be number one. i do think there is an issue they have had in the first half of this year in terms of their supply and production. they had to shut down production for a while when they were doing the battery fire investigation in february and in march they corrected that. now they have increased the capacity the rouge plant, which is basically where they build the f-150 lightning right now is

increasing capacity. so all of that plays into the decision that they're going to have to lower the prices to stoke demand here. yes, will they have lower prices in terms of their supply chain yes. not disputing that i'm also saying it's clear that in this market if you want people interested in an electric vehicles, you cut the prices 7 to 16%, that's what you're going to do. >> and by the way, we did see the stock drop, i don't know if you were watching as it was coming up. that means instead of taking those savings they were going to earn and putting them towards better margins, they're going to be using it this way instead you can see the stock off about 1.2% >> exactly >> thank you, phil we'll see you later. >> by the way, folks, the actor strike is under way, picketing today and perhaps for a while as the two sides don't seem to be making process

>> good morning, julia >> good morning. one person told me we can expect this to be going on for months and the economic impact of a combined actors and writers strike could be as much as $4 billion according to estimates today as actors and writers unite on the picket line outside los angeles and media headquarters in new york, the two sides are still far apart on key issues including pay raises, as well as streaming residuals barry diller, chairman of iac and a long-time industry veteran warned on cbs's "face the nation" the potential for devastating effects of these strikes. if it drags on until christmas, consumers could stop subscriptions, hurting revenue and an inability to ramp up.

saying this could produce a collapse of an entire history. that should help out netflix, as well warner brothers, discovery. paramount does not have the diversification of theme parks and it is more exposed at its broadcast network cbs. joe and becky, we're looking ahead to what netflix will say when it reports earnings on wednesday. it is certainly going to have to weigh in on the impact of the strike >> julia, thank you. great to see you joining us with more is jim stewart, the "new york times" columnist and a cnbc contributors jim, you know, it's never a good time for a strike but this seems like for all parties involved it's just a bad time

they had some real bargaining power, writers, actors, everybody when we thought that the fire hose of money for content was never going to end it seems like everything's 180 degrees from there now streaming's not making money, a.i. is going to replace a lot of jobs. it's the worst time. picked a bad day to start sniffing glue. >> yeah, as you said, the money spigot was just sflowing. the irony is they have handed the companies a short-term gift, which is lower costs wall street has been clamoring for these companies to curb the spending on content. there was this arms race of spending going on, which is the big reason why none of them is

really making much money with the exception of netflix and all of a sudden now the spending has come to an abrupt halt long term you're going to have trouble if they don't start refreshing the content, you'll see prescriptions get cut. with streaming it is very easy to cut it off. >> sounds like the perennial worry of a mature business that starts harvesting instead of investing and growing. streamers have a lot in the can, i think. we've talked about that. it's a different model now i see "friends," i'm at the gym, "friends" is playing constantly. people can find stuff to watch i don't know how much leverage that gives people for new content, that suddenly viewers

are craving new content and will leave if they don't get it have they figured that out, the people striking? >> i don't think anybody raeall knows. one mystery is how much are people going to pay for this the long-term model has been keep pumping out the content, raise prices, raise prices we've seen there seemsto be some price resistance out there. and how much new content will subscribers need before they start pulling the plug on this so we'll be seeing in the next few months as that new content is failing to show up, how do consumers react? do they cut this off reruns are only going to take you so far i think especially you look at a netflix, doesn't have a lot of sports to keep people interested, they really do depend on that new content so my guess is they are going to

be under pressure. >> who do you think will be under the most pressure. i'm under the impression they may be in better shape because they have so much content that they haven't released yet that they still can actually release this fall and possibly into the winter and spring whereas some of the other services, it gets more complicated for them more quickly. >> i think netflix has a bigger bagl back log that they can roll out. netflix does not have as much reality and sports will depend on fresh content coming on to the network. conversely you've got the old some people might be hesitating to cut the cable cord, if they're really relying on something like an espn for a lot of their entertainment you know, warner has the nba,

the ncaa, they have some sports, a lot of reality so they're probably in a somewhat better position as well >> jim, becky made a really smart topoint in the 6:00 hour and she's looking at me like what point was that? how much do you think the media companies are concerned about eyeballs moving frankly from traditional tv or streaming even simply to the tiktoks of the world and they youtubes of the world? that that is not a temporary situation but becomes a long-term situation? >> no, they are worried. i've heard conversations about that one thing that we've seen with the pandemic is once consumer behavior changes and in this case they stopped going to movie theaters, they change their viewing habits and what they watch. you can't put that genie back in the bottle it's not easy to get them back

to their previous habits i think there is a risk we have more user-generated content than ever, it's cheap and that's one of the reasons i think the streamers face consumer resistance when you get up to trying to raise these prices >> we were finally really excited about barbie, heimer possible, people actually coming, amc, people are going to go again this is not good we're still way down in tickets and new releases this was like the worst time for that, too. i mean antar, actors need to tat into account i don't know you can damage this again almost to where it can't be fixed >> i don't think they look at it

from an economic perspective >> probably not. >> many of my conversations were with writers and actors. but they're upset, they're angry. like a lot of people today, they feel like they're being asked to do more for less money >> related to that, though, the unique part of this is in some ways more people are employed than ever in the entertainment business, in the film and streaming business, more tv shows are being developed, more films and just the number of show runners, directors, i mean, even broadway five, ten years ago but the pay has shifted. how do you think that labor thinks about that issue? >> as i said, it's been a golden era for the actors and writers and it's been going on from these streaming companies. but the problem is now they are

all trying to cut back they're all putting the brakes on that. there's reduced spending so there's this big new workforce out there saying, oh my god, finally the got the job of my dreams and now the amount of work is being increased or they're looking at layoffs or feeling job insecurity so i think it's that recent change over the last year or two that went from spend everything you can, higher, higher, higher, keep people working and suddenly they're feeling threatened >> jim, good to see you, sir thank you. >> thank you, too. >> when we come back, chinese tech stobcks, we're going to tak about them coming up mitchell grjoin us. "squawk box" is coming right back ♪♪

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in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. welcome back to "squawk box. after hitting ali baba with a nearly $1 billion fine are chinese regulators now seem to

be backing the tech sector joining us right now to discuss all this, mitchell green, founding partner at lead edge capitol. it has invested in alibaba, uber and spotify and more this group ipo was on the docket and has been on hold for quite some time. are you now a believer that things have fundamentally changed again? >> thanks so much for having me on, andrew am i a believer? i think we're going to get to see an ipo hopefully at some point in 2024. again, that's our opinion. things could change. i think you need the internet companies to help get the chinese economy going again. right now it looks like the regulatory framework is goes to be more positive but your guess and mine, who the heck knows >> the issue is not can one of

these companies go public, it's do you want to own one of these companies if they're public? which is to say what is the regulatory environment of the future in that company in. >> that's a great question i believe what these stocks, alibaba, 10 cent, what they're telling me now, they're trading at very low historical multiples. i think that's a result of uncertainty, right i think a lot of that is to take time i'm sure if an the multiples tre at a discount, there's still uncertainty. >> uber, they still own that stake in dd. dd for a long time looked like a

massive writedown. is it now a massive write up and if so, should that be in the stock of uber? >> that's a great question dara -- we don't own what it wa ipo. >> is that -- in your mind, i'm looking at that stock right now -- >> i think they will be able to exit at some point in time >> is that baked into that stock or is that not even there in which case maybe you would actually take a bet on uber now and say, hey, there's actually some money in there that nobody is accounting for? >> probably some but in the grand scheme of things relative to the market cap of uber relative to what didi might be worth, what these things typically trade at in discounts and minority interests and equity interests, i don't know i think it's more the execution of dara and team that's much

more important >> what's your sense more broadly of tech? we had a number of investors and analysts on this morning who seem quite bullish on where the market is going. to be bullish and where the markets are going when people talk about where the dow is and s&p 500 is, you have to still be bullish on tech since it's such a big weighting of these indexes. >> you mean the seven tech companies or the 300 other ones? >> really the seven, i think, is what we're talking about you call it. >> it's interesting. if you look at -- most of the big tech companies have soared i think to have a view on tech, you need to have a view on where interest rates are going i think ai, a lot of the run-up has been driven by ai, people wanting to get in on it. i think ai is very real, it will probably take a much longer time to affect every-day people on an

every-day way, but it's real some of these companies, though, they're not crazy expensive. if you look at what google and microsoft trade at, it's not unreasonable there's another segment of these companies in technology that have been, like -- look, they're up from their lows if you look at the russell 2000, what is it up? 5%, 7% for the year? the nasdaq is up 30% there's these seven giant companies and everyone else has been left behind >> mitchell, always good to see you. appreciate your perspective on all of it and always learn so much thanks >> good to see you thanks again. up next, some stocks to watch as we get ready for rertnis big week for earng pos. pos. "squawk box" will be right back. rs rock stars. "squawk box" will be right back. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star.

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. welcome back a big week ahead on the earnings calendar including bank of america, morgan stanley and lockheed martin tomorrow morning. goldman, netflix and tesla on wednesday. for more on this, we bring in stephanie lee portfolio manager at hightower advisers, she is also a cnbc contributor. here we go getting into the thick of things with earnings. what do you think of the big banks and how are you going to position yourself? >> we have 11% of the s&p 500 reporting this week. we're just getting going it's going to be busy. it's going to be a lot of fun.

what did we learn from the bellwethers last week? jpmorgan and wells fargo we learned net income was better than expected. total revenues would better than expected and expense control as expected i think for jp, we will see positive operating leverage. for wells fargo, we saw better deposits you add it all up, and i think we'll see morgan stanley have better than expected net interest income, better than expected investment management but investment banking will be down 24% puts and takes same with bank of america. they'll see better expenses, they've been doing a good job with that as of late but capital markets will be down 10%. i savor morgan stanley because they will benefit as a result, and i like the diversification

they'll have 1 trillion in assets in their wealth management business every three years. the stock trades about 14 times and gives you about a 3.5% dividend yield that's the one i would be playing. >> let's talk about the oil patch. oil prices never went as high as we had been expecting over the last year or so. but you have seen oil start to pick back up a little bit. wti just below $75 you like schlumberger in this group. why is that? >> i do. because the stock is number one in the industry. it trades at 19 times forward estimates for 17% total revenue growth and 24% ebita growth. international is just starting to reflect, that's 70% of their business they have reported the last 17 quarters either in line or as expected i like their technology, the digitalization within slb and how that helps margins and

pricing. >> we have some lousy numbers overnight out of china concerns about how the consumer is doing, retail numbers, retail sales up by just about 3% or north of that. well below the gains that we had been used to seeing in the decades before this. you still like a casino company that has big exposure to macau you want to talk about that? >> yeah. so, i know that we're seeing a variety of different data points that are not so good in terms of china, as you mentioned. the services part, the consumer part is actually doing better. the pmis are comfortably above 50 for the last six months as they reopen, i think the consumer is the way you want to play china las vegas sands, they have 40% of their business in macau last quarter they beat on revenues and margins they only had -- 31% of the hotels were closed they only had 39% of airport

volumes that were happening. i think you're going to see an improvement. the free cash flow willbe to the upside and they'll be able to pay down debt and continue to do various different build-outs within the casino franchise. >> you like casinos that have more exposure here in the united states or is this really purely a play on china? >> it's play on china. it's play on the reopening that's the one theme that i like i think it is not consensus. it's a little frustrating because it's taken a long time to see a recovery. the consumer over there is the way you want to play it. i have owned other u.s. operators, casino operators. i think there's more operating leverage in china. >> okay. stephanie, thank you >> thank you let's get a final check on the markets before we head out of here. we'll be back tomorrow again >> yes >> can you believe it? >> two in a row. amazing. less than 100 down on the dow.

na nasdaq, up 5 now oil is finally making a stand. oh says the prompter i don't need to be urged "squawk on the street" is next good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber. features are soft to start the week as this china data disappoints. a lot of news headed our way this week. retail sales and earnings coming off the best week since march futures pointing to