good monday morning i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post nine of the new york stock exchange setting the agenda today, a vacation on dove island. why two more hikes are ahead and the number that will be the ultimate test in deciding whether we get to 2%. ian bremmer is with us russia axing the ukraine deal on grain. a bunch of agriculture prices are on the move. follow the money with 80 etfs under their belt the ceo of

wisdom tree is going to join us. taking a look at the markets. s&p up .2% building on the gains we saw last week. what's driving it today? financials are having a good day, up 1% after better bank results on friday. tech is going strong, information technology is your second best sector that's why the nasdaq is up half a percent right now, you have 35.5% year to date the s&p 500 up 17.5% a rally that took so many people by surprise that were coming in, still expecting earnings -- and we have strategists we just heard last hour, earnings weakness, federal reserve having more work to do to keep inflation from popping back up and here we are. higher >> indeed, got 52 week highs on the industrials, the transports

as we're talking goldman cuts the cout the odds of recession down to 20 the median on the street is 54% odd. >> this is in the next -- >> 12 months. >> yeah. more positivity. that's what's topping our tape this morning, the burst of optimism rbc and raymond james saying the rally is about to expand beyond tech while adam parker points out the bear case is lower than what many were anticipating but what has changed in the ba backdrop mike santoli is here to help break that down this morning what do you make of the happy talk >> i think what mostly changed is people's confidence that the favorable economic scenario may play out not much that has changed in the underlying fundamentals

considering where we were two months ago, gdp 2%, s&p earnings about $230 a share, that's where it was now, where it was then but the perception of the risk to the down 150id has been diminished the market has behaved well and people hitched themselves for a ride on it the market picked it up, been trading pretty much all year as if inflation and the fed were 2022 problems. and now people are increasingly believing it so it brings us to this point where the question is, are people overbelieving it. have we gotten too many credit in the market for having this favorable scenario it's not clear we have i think you have a earnings trough happening right now most likely in the current quarter reported so all the big picture stuff is supportive and the bulls have built up a cushion in the market what you have to watch is,

sentiment as we've been talking about has brightened speculative has increased. now you have people riding along with it to a larger degree and seasonal factors start to become less friendly right now to me it's more of a two-way market there could be down sides, shocks are surprises. but right now i think it's more of a belief phase. it's not as if people notice the good things and the market takes them away. >> we'll see pretty good year to date let's dig deeper with our next guest assuming we get a rate hike later this month he sees the fed skipping in september and another hike in november pushing back to the first half of next year joining us today, andrew ho hollenhorst is with us

>> it's right we're revising down the probability of a near term recession people thought we'd be there already. from a market perspective maybe pushing beyond the relevant time horizon. >> what about the argument made after last week that in order to keep the annual rate as low as it is, you have to do some pretty mild month on month changes. data does not a new trend make we're still running really 4% to 5% underlying inflation. so, the u.s. economy would look great if it wasn't for this problem with inflation that's probably something that we'll have to come back to maybe later this year, next year if the expansion continues, then that's good news for economic growth, but it becomes harder to see why inflation slows down so, i do think that issue is out there. probably not in the near term right now. >> well, those that are rooting

for inflation to go all the way down and betting on it, would argue it hasn't been just this report it's been ever since last summer when inflation peaked. we've seen a stair step down of moderation. >> most of the moderation we've seen has been in gasoline prices and good prices, in those headline items you do see the core slowing down shelter prices are slowing down, but if you think about the fundamental drivers, we still have a very tight labor market we still have a tight housing market, despite mortgage rates being higher so, we're seeing these upside risks to services prices, upside risks to housing prices. again, you're probably not going to see that in the near-term data so i think we can continue in markets in this dovish reprieve as we get to the end of the year, maybe you'll see more upside risk. >> the pain numbers we hit this morning, they're now outpacing inflation is problematic for the fed. there's a case to be made there. why do you think it's every other? powell said he's not ruling out consecutive hikes. >> really we're unsure what to

do at the june meeting, that's why we got this strange messaging, where they decided not to hike but to raise the dots that indicate they would probably hike two more times this year. now, we'll get the hike in july. market hasn't changed their pricing of that. that's baked in the cake the question becomes september september will look a lot like june again where he they want to be cautious. i think you have to think back to march, april, when we had those issues in the banking sector it's really not on the near-term dashboard of markets right now but when the fed thinks about raising interest rates, they're aware of that risk from financial markets. they want to be cautious as they're raising rates further. >> street's looking at some potential negative payroll prints in the back half of the year on the other hand, some of the labor deals that are getting put together at the airlines, for example, 13%, 18% pay hikes immediately. i just wonder where you see -- do you see relief in wages in the next year? >> that's exactly the point that i was making, that with these

really tight labor markets, labor has a lot of power here. you are seeing wage increases in certain sectors, wage negotiations where you're seeing sometimes more than 10% wage increases, to your point it's hard to get inflation down in that environment. if you got negative payrolls, you would have a looser labor market there's reasons to think wages can cool >> this is a great graph, courtesy of "the journal" this morning. this is weakness in europe this is since 2019 you can see how the u.s. stands out. we're not getting to china yet i wonder how you think of the united states as the other two giant global engines seem to be definitely behind us >> the united states really is well placed in this inflation fight in the sense it's coming from a position of strength. it's coming from strong growth it's coming from a strong labor market elsewhere in the world, central banks are facing a much more difficult challenge because they're really seeing weaker growth and still have the inflation problem. so, from that perspective, i think it makes sense to be a little bullish on the united states >> so, what do you think it is that takes us into recession,

just two more hikes? >> that's exactly the issue. i think a lot of people would have thought -- we would have thought this rise in interest rates would have been enough to slow the economy the data are telling us that it's want. we have to follow the data the data are simply saying maybe it's not then you start thinking about maybe we will have some kind of more tightening from the bank credit channel that's going to over time work its way into the economy maybe we'll have higher mortgage rates that many people aren't experiencing because they're on fixed mortgage rates these are things that act with a really long lag. that's why it gets hard to see the near-term recession. >> but you do think it's coming? a lot of people on wall street think it's not and there's this sort of scenario of a soft landing where as long as jobs hold up, that the tightening isn't going to sink us into recession and we can still fight inflation, too. >> i think the scenario more likely is the u.s. economy continues to expand. i would agree with that. where i would disagree is that's a soft landing if the u.s. economy continues to

expand, the labor market stays tight, wage growth stays high, the wage growth gets passed through into price growth and that's inflation i really struggle with seeing this soft landing scenario. >> one last question you mentioned lags waller's point last week is actually a lot of the stuff that's been done has probably passed through he made the point if you're waiting for more lag effect, you might be waiting for a train that's already left the station. is that a common view? >> wal waller is partially right on that, but many officials would probably point to and i would point to also that bank credit channel where you're still seeing tightening of lending conditions, longer lags, but absolutely, the negative effect on the housing market, that has already passed through, we're beyond the peak from that and that's where you start to wonder, is this economy really going into recession >> people were saying the inverted curve yield to levels we haven't seen doesn't necessarily mean recession economic indicators levels we haven't seen since recession,

doesn't necessarily mean recession. these are classic tells with very long track records. >> it's very difficult to read the classic tells in this environment. i think you're right, we're supposed to take these things seriously. on the other hand, we know this cycle is completely different than any other cycle we've lived through before, driven by a pandemic, so we have to be hope for alternatives. >> we can't wait for a normal cycle where some of the clues actually work. great to see you coming up, the story abroad. russia suspending a landmark grain deal with ukraine just hours before the deadline. the move sending wheat prices on a roller coaster today meantime, there's those china gdp numbers. way below expectations on retail sales and fixed asset investment we'll break down that with ian bremmer in a moment. what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world.

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watching shares of yelp, g goldman ups. they mention their tom pick remains amazon but they also target chewy >> big move for yelp on the back of these analyst actions. meantime, check out the agricultural space the kremlin pulls out of the un-backed grain initiative the deal inked last july has allowed certain agricultural

goods to cross the ukraine border that has dropped back down with turkish president erdogan saying he believes putin will keep the deal and plans to meet with him next month our next guest anticipated the deal collapse last week. joining us with his insight, ian bremmer. ian, what happens next >> well, the russians have said they suspended the deal. they didn't collapse it. a couple of things the ukrainians have said they are putting a fund together to continue ensure the ships to go through. the turks have historically talked about maybe continuing to escort those ships that latter move would certainly prevent the russians from firing on them, probably from harassing them, but would also significantly deteriorate the relations between turkey and russia we've already seen some of that. you saw last week with the nato summit, the turks now are letting sweden join the summit,

so they removed their objections to that. they also did an exchange of high-level prisoners to ukraine itself erdogan has been more willing to provoke and irritate putin the last few weeks let's see if this continues. in the near term, let's be clear, the global south will experience higher commodity prices, food and fertilizer, that will upset them with the kremlin. that's why the kremlin had been unwilling to back off the deal the last few times it extended it. >> what was different this time? >> well, the russians have been increasingly unhappy with the nature of the deal they've been complaining to the turks, to the u.n. secretary-general, saying that, you know, you're saying that we're allowed to export, but you haven't resolved the sanctions on the banks, on the insurers, on the shipping, so the reality is, we're not getting as much out of the deal as the ukrainians are

the people involved in the deal have said that, indeed, the russians have, you know, sort of some legitimacy to those complaints also the fact is the ukrainians are willing to play harder ball. they feel like they're getting a lot of economic support internationally from the western world at this point. and the counteroffensive is not going so well, so they want to squeeze the russians harder. also putin wants to show he's a tough guy at the end of the day. in the last few weeks domestically, as you know, have not gone so well for him also this weekend with the bridge getting hit again hard to see the russians saying, yeah, we'll continue to be patient on the deal. so, again, i certainly wasn't surprised. we've been saying for a couple weeks now that we thought this deal was going to fall apart. >> at the same time, though, you do have the oil price for russia trading above the cap for the first time does that allow him to extend this, at least, as painful as it may be >> yeah. prices are a little higher the russian economy has outperformed what the americans

were expecting some 500 days ago. remember, at the beginning of this war, the united states really believed, along with allies, that it was not military support for ukraine that would make a difference. in fact, they thought the ukrainian military was going to fall apart it was the sanctions that long term would cripple the russian economy. turned out the sanctions haven't been so useful, in part, because the world needs access to a lot of russian commodities while the military support for ukraine has made a real difference also, you're right, of course, that the russian oil is trading above the cap with some of the western countries that have committed to keeping it low. also the russians are sending a lot of oil to countries like india, to china. american policy is to allow that to occur because if you were to cut it off, you know, the impact on the global economy would be massive, unacceptably so no one is publicly saying, we want the indians to buy this crude, but the reality is, we want the indians to buy this

crude. >> at the same time you have russia decreeing more takeovers of western assets. just this weekend we got carlsbad local operations and danone's local operations. russia has been doing this since the beginning, as western companies leave, they take it over how much does that boost the economy and change the dynamic >> i'm not sure it boost the economy very much. i'm not sure it changes the dynamic. the russians are still trying to show they have leverage but they have leverage in the context of a g7 environment where no additional money is ever going in where you truly are decoupling but western firms that have said they're getting out have been reluctant to get out a lot have been reluctant to get out immediately because they have no way of selling those assets they understand if they do, it's essentially allowing russian oligarchs to take them over. some have tried to wait it out some have made the argument they're more in humanitarian

areas. they're selling things that russian poor people need to live effectively. that's a gray zone ultimately, if we look at this war and what's going to happen in this war, it's not the russian economy collapse that's going to matter in the next one, two, three years it's the kremlin, it's the political pressure on them globally, it's maybe the military pressure on them internally post-prigozhin and wagner group, and it's also the nature of the fight on the ground in ukraine. the economic sanctions, as much as that's a preferred u.s. tool historically in dealing with lots of these countries around the world, has not had -- an iota of difference in russian policy making and military outcomes. >> ian bremmer, we'll leave it there. thank you for your perspective on this. still to come, eli lilly ceo david ricks. that exclusive 15 minutes away. a slew of auto stocks on the move today

tesla is higher after it announced it built its cyber truck after two years of delays. rivian lower on that and ford in the red after price cuts on the f-150 lightning uctrk. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ )

european markets set to close in just a few minutes. markets there falling across the board after last week's forward movements. they went up a long with the u.s. the stoxx 600 down after roughly 3% decline last week switch watch maker reporting a slowdown in u.s. sales in particular speaking of the u.s. and the story abroad, the dollar is at its lowest level in more than a year it's kind of unchanged now, but a big trop last week that everybody is talking about and continuing the trend on the disinflationary readings we got from the u.s the cpi and ppi, everyone was

expecting to be soft, but came in soft other this view that the fed is wrapping it up. going to do one next week and done, at least that's the market's take. as yields have fallen, the dollar has gone with it. let's get a news update with pippen stevens. >> millions of people in the u.s. and across the globe remain under relentless heat wave that is expected to break more records this week. it comes after death valley, california, reached a near record high of 128 degrees on sunday 134 is the record. the national weather service says the extreme temperatures will continue through at least next week in the south and southwest. the triple digit temperatures are also being seen across europe and in china. elton john and his husband appeared remotely in a london court to testify in kevin spacey's sexual assault trial. they told jurors spacey only attended their annual gala in

2001 one of spacey's accusers claims spacey groped him on the way to the event a few years later. spacey is facing charges brought against him by four men. taylor swift is breaking records once again according to billboard, she just became the first woman to have four albums on billboard's top ten list at once swift set a record for female artist with the most number one albums in history, breaking a tie with barbara streisand that is quite a record. >> she's better than the beatles. i'm going to get so much hate mail for that. thank you, pippa. after the break, what parts of the market are investors betting on wisdom trade with insight. we'll talk to the ceo next shares of at&t are in the red this morning after citi takes the stock to neutral jpm did the same thing on friday target for citi at $16 we mentioned the other one, the stock on pace to close lower for

the sixth straight session, has seen eight losing streaks of eight or more so far this year

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt.

two hours into trading, let's go post to post with bob

pisani for a look at what's moving. >> the s&p is up 12 points believe it or not, 12 points is enough for a new high. if we close here, 4510, the old closing high, we're at 4517 right now. not a lot of new highs but good news on the earnings front remember friday, we had the first responders, jpmorgan, wells fargo, reporting the big banks. they started up and flattish on the day. that was a little concern by some people. we had good reports from them. jpmorgan back up to a new high wells fargo also trading up. that's a good sign for the start of earnings season speaking of new highs, not a lot of them, but every single day visa, big mover on the dow every single day up 18% this year mastercard at a new high huge profit margins, 55% profit margins. it's a tech company, a capital light tech company and trades for about 25 times forward earnings that sounds like a rich multiple that's not bad the s&p 500 trading, depending

on how you measure it, 19 to 20 times forward earnings given how the profitability of this company, 25 times forward earnings is not certainly overvalued compared to the s&p 500. on the other side of it, the biggest decliner on the s&p 500 is ford today. of course, electric vehicles, tesla is moving to the upside. ford is down they had a price cut on their lightning electric pickup. we're down about 4%. remember, it does have a very attractive dividend yield high, 4.2% that's helped a lot of people. it had a big up quarter, may and june gm and ford both moved up rather noticeably but the competition is tough out there, particularly in the electric vehicle industry, may be harder to push that forward from here on back to you. >> thank you, bob pisani as we watch the rally. where are investors putting their money right now? according to new june inflows data from wisdom tree, fixed income and equity strategies in

the u.s. and abroad are the most popular. the company is now unveiling a new app, a blockchain enabled platform giving users access to digital platforms. joining us is wisdom free ceo and founder jonathan steinberg we want to talk about the new app and digital currencies but generally on the market, it's been such a surprise to see the rally and the momentum, which i can see as part of the rally story here, that everyone's surprised by it what are you seeing in some of these fund flows >> thank you, sara, for having me yeah, we've seen very strong flows year to date we started the day of over $600 billion. year to date we've taken in $9.3 billion of net new money fastest of all the publicly traded asset managers. as you said in your tease, we're

seeing a lot of strength in fixed income mostly in the short duration side so, floating treasuries has been very strong. but our universal bond fund has also taken in more than $1 billion. in equities, emerging market, developed international have led the way. though u.s. equities are also taking in strong money >> so, the bottom line, jonathan, is what, retail is bullish? stocks and bonds again in a way they haven't been in how long? >> listen, etfs, we have a macro trend driving flows for the industry though, you know, investors have continued to reposition their portfolios, there's just a lot of money on the sidelines. a lot of money has made it into the markets and we just continue to see it. >> would you say the same thing regarding u.s. and europe, jonathan, at least at the moment >> i'm sorry certainly in europe, our

european operation where over $96 billion, $36 billion comes from europe. we're seeing strength there as well there it was being driven more by commodities, really gold -- i'm sorry, not gold. oil and copper led the flows in europe also we're seeing it in th thematics like our ai fund has drawn a lot in the europe and u.s. >> why would i buy the ai fund if i can just buy nvidia and have better returns? >> you take on single company risks. that's the reason for -- i mean, if you really feel strongly about nvidia, then you should do that as all investors have that ability. you know, more investors, more often than not, would prefer to get some industry diversification. in many ways it's a safer way to invest when it comes to blockchain and crypto and everything, i know some of your comments are going

to be limited by these filings, but how are you thinking about regulatory friction versus retail, and now really institutional interest >> so, you know, we've been -- this journey on blockchain-enabled finance, it's really been sort of a four-year journey. in your tease you mentioned that we just launched in 21 states our mobile app we knew it would not be an easy regulatory environment to launch, and it hasn't been it's really been in quite the -- quite the effort over the last few years to navigatele regulatory environment that said, we had a huge win last year where the s.e.c. approved nine of our blockchain-enabled funds so, you know, we're now in 21 states, money transfer licenses. it is happening. we would expect that wisdom tree prime to be national by the end

of the year. so, we think this is -- these are very, very important milestones on this journey >> how is it different for the consumer, jonathan, than just buying a bitcoin etf which i know you're also filing for. >> it's a great question so, we in europe since 2019, we've had crypto etps. wisdom tree and blackrock and others we filed for spot bitcoin here in the u.s. it is, in my opinion, the future of crypto as an asset class in the united states really won't be driven by etps. i think it will be in the wallet so, in wisdom tree prime, right now in those 21 states, you can buy bitcoin and ethereum safe and convenience before the end of the year, we'll be adding additional functionality so that your bitcoin will be tied to the

payment rails so you're going to have bitcoin with utility. bitcoin to buy your groceries or to share with a friend peer to peer that's the same for gold and treasuries as well so, gold in the wallet, physically backed tokenized gold, tied to the payment rails, it takes on a flavor more than just investment. gold takes on characteristics of savings and currency so, what we see in the wallet, greater functionality, which is why we're so excited about what we're doing in blockchain-enabled finance but it's also why etfs overcame mutual funds again, it was just better investing experience, greater functionality, greater convenience. we see those kind of characteristics in

blockchain-enabled finance. >> that's a big bet, jonathan. we'll continue to follow it. thanks for coming on to talk about that and what you're seeing appreciate it. >> thank you so much. >> jonathan steinberg, wisdom tree ceo coming up, an exclusive with lilly's dave ricks breakthrough results from their alzheimer's drug stay with us

i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i'm like, "why do i need salt? like, who is going to do that?" she literally would make me rip open a pack of salt, pour it in my hand, and i would, like, lick my hand. sure enough, i would always be the kid not cramping, i would always be the kid energized, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to a drinking lmnt. this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs. ♪ welcome to a new era of energy.

dow's up 77 points, carl, as you can see, we started the day in the red quickly regained the momentum. travelers, jpmorgan, american express leading the dow. financials carrying the day today, up more than a percent in the session. technology, industrials, consumer discretionary and materials also strong. the nasdaq's up another more than 0.50% the week-over-week chart is up 4% continued to be buoyed and now the strategists are jumping this train, the whole idea that we're seeing growth, we're seeing inflation moderate in a bigger way than expected, thanks to last week's data and we're getting earnings which maybe we'll see the trough, trough earnings is the phrase de jur. mike santoli even used it.

>> we're about 10% of the s&p having reported, thanks to b of a. we're tracking a 6% beat at the moment they think we're probably going to end the quarter around a 3% beat this would be the highest close of the year on the s&p not quite the highest interday we did get to 4527 on friday, but the bulls clearly in command at the moment. >> always a beat that's why the revenue growth, the margins, which there have been warnings about, as inflation slows down we're also monitoring some health care moves. we have big news from eli lilly this morning new results from phase 3 trial showing that its alzheimer's treatments slowed early stage cognitive and functional decline from the disease by about 29% after 18 months versus a placebo. the company announcing today the drug has been submitted for fda approval and they expect a decision by the end of the year. joining us in a cnbc exclusive, eli lilly ceo and chair, david ricks. david, thank you for coming on

how did these results measure up to your expectations >> great to be with you. it's an exciting day for so many people working for a new breakthrough for alzheimer's these results we would put in the upper end of our expectations going into this study. and i think the field's expectations just to clarify, on the main outcome, it slowed the disease by 35% over 18 months. and today we highlighted a couple other new analysis, which basically show that the earlier patients in the study, those with less to no disease we slowed even further, between 40% and 60% slowing. that's the real news from today. earlier with donanemab, eli's new medicine. >> how do these differ from bioagain >> it's difficult to make cross-trial comparisons because they weren't the same

population lilly population had more advanced disease on average and amyloid, the protein that stops alzheimer's. despite that, the top line results were a little better numerically, 35% slowing on our primary points 36% on another commonly used one. they were in the mid-20s it appears donanemab is a little more potent. one feature of our medicine is half of patients were able to discontinue using the drug because it cleared all the amyloid within one year. so, it's a short-duration treatment that could have a long impact on disease progression. that's good news >> david, is there an easy way to explain to the layperson if and when there was the eureka moment in this drug development, so sort of key that got unlocked >> you know, that's a great question, because many times in medicine we do have that, a-ha and suddenly there's a

breakthrough and a rush of excitement we've been working on alzheimer's at lilly for 32 years. we've invested billions of dollars. mostly we've been failing. with each failure, looked at those results and tried to make improvements, both in the drug itself, so changing it is drug, making better and better, more potent drugs i just described this drug, donanemab, which works aggressively against amyloid, and changing the drugs we used in the study we used new technology to stratify patients rather than the clinician impression using analytical techniques like p.e.t. scan to get the right patients in the study and demonstrate by looking at the pathology of the disease in the brain, how people are progressing. those are both innovations new drug, better study, fantastic outcome here today with donanemab. >> is it too early to start talking about how you think coverage is going to fall out, especially given the long time duration you're dealing with in

trying to arrest the disease >> well, most of these patients who will be eligible are medicare eligible patients of course, they paid into the medicare program all their life. almost every drug is covered in medicare here, you know, the government has already said related to this class of drugs that they will restrict coverage to those who enroll in a registry now, the good news is this registry they just announced last week with the approval of our competitor's drug. looks like a pretty light touch. it doesn't take a lot of effort to get in it but the presence of the registry itself, you know, is kind of a question because it's the only disease where they're doing this and the data they're collecting seems pretty low value in this process. so, we hope to have that rescinded through time and full coverage for donanemab when it's approved we also announced today we completed our submission to the fda for full approval and we expect that over the coming half year or so >> i'm trying to figure out how it affects the real world care

of patients with alzheimer's, david. can you just explain -- so, it slows the progression of the disease? >> yeah. it slows the progression what what we showed today, the earlier you begin to use the drug, perhaps the more slowing that could be. the drug is short duration you take it for -- most people take it for just a year, but it could have a residual effect on the life of the disease. importantly, there was an important study -- part of the study today looking at how patients progress. so, like in cancer we look at progression pre-survival, that's whether your tumor grew over the course of the study and you survive. here we look at clinical progression and survival this drug slowed by 38.5% the clinical progression meaning, you're more likely to have no progress within a year on this drug versus someone who wasn't on the drug that's good news i think those are things like ability to care for yourself, remembering daily functions of life, functioning normally and

independently longer that's the promise of this class of treatment. >> does it stop the progression completely >> it does not stop the progression completely there are some people who it appears to do that, but on average it doesn't what it does do is slow the progression. as i said, in early disease, 40% to 60% in the total population, we showed somewhere around 34% >> when you take the long view, i mean, i'm talking about social, health, 30, 40 years from now, are you thinking and are you most excited about what's happening in cancer or alzheimer's or weight loss can you ladder some of that for us >> well, you know, lilly found itself with the crux of the two most important breakthroughs in using medicine to treat diseases that both affect a lot of people and cost a lot of money. and that's alzheimer's dementia and obesity care both these conditions -- i think alzheimer's last year this

country spent $300 billion, with a b, on care for alzheimer's and dementia over $1 trillion on obesity treatment. both of these conditions didn't have anything that worked until now. lilly has a new medicine for both i think they present huge opportunity to slow the cost growth of our health care system, help people live longer, healthier, feel better in the case of alzheimer's, retain memories and be there for those that we love and for those important life moments, particularly in the golden years of america so, we find ourselves at an interesting moment with these two conditions that previously we couldn't do anything about and now we can. >> wall street is very excited about these obesity drugs from you and novo, what can you tell us about the timing of the oral pills and what is the availability and supply look like until we get there? >> yeah. so, super exciting, under fda,

more data coming over the coming weeks to finish off that program. we do expect approval by the end of the year for that medicine. supply is ramping up into the right. that said, as we've seen so far, for our drug and the competitors', demand far for our drug and comp competitors, demand is insatiable we're finishing a plant in north carolina we have another one being built there, megafactories for these medicines and we'll keep going we have six other drugs like this, combining different effects or looking at an oral that was announced at ada, studying for differents aspects of obesity in many ways obesity is a master switch, a big issue we know in every condition as adults if we can tamp that down we can

help a lot of people live longer, healthier lives. so we have many shots on goal coming, more ways to reduce obesity and ramping up production as quick as humanly possible but it's still going to constrain in some degree >> thank you for joining us on those important results. we appreciate it. >> great to be with you. exciting day for people who care about those with alzheimer's >> really encouraging, david rick ceo of eli lilly. the ark innovation up nearly 60% this year but it's leading investors to seloul t. we'll have details in a moment but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence. this is american infrastructure.

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kathy woods ark fund is up big this year but some investors are calling the top. we'll get details on that on "techcheck" don't go away.

kaa cathie wood's ark innovation fund was known for fans who stuck with it for years, but now some of the loyalists might be bailing deirdre bosa >> at a time when tech is roaring back and you're losing investors you may need a rebrand.

even the etf's rebound of 60% this year is not bringing investors back rather looking like an opportunity for many of them to get out, net outflows of $234 million this year i raised it with cathie wood herself this friday evening. >> our asset retention has been speck tacu spectacular whereby i think everyone would agree with that we're up more than 50%, some of our fund 60% plus. so there would be natural profit taking i think we're seeing investors shift from the nasdaq 100 or nasdaq take maybe losses or gains there and into our innovation fund because i think the values, when it comes to innovation are in our fund >> it would need to be a lot of investors and a lot of dollars or at least a lot of upside to get close to pandemic highs. assets under management at peak

today it's less than $10 billion, much is due to investment losses not necessarily people taking money out of funds but investors have also pulled a net $740 million from ark innovation. another reason investors may not be so willing to move their money. it's more expensive. ark's fee is 0.75% versus 0.2% from the qqq perhaps the biggest knock against cathie wood is the longer term chart, despite the huge pandemic performance ark the flagship fund has underperformed the nasdaq and nasdaq 100 since its inception in 2014 and under performing a lot of the big names, nvidia this year she got out of in the flag ship fund entirely. >> that's a damning statistic, dee. are you ready to dive into

mo morgan stanley in the morning? >> retail sales as well. key indicator for the u.s. economy which is driven by the consumer and which has held up well. >> not too far from friday's intraday high on the s&p of 45.27. the judge is back in the house let's get to post nine and the half. welcome to "fast money halftime report" earnings your rally and your money the investment committee debating what is at stake. joining me shannon, joe and steve. you heard carl talking, dow is going for six up days in a row and what is a pivotal week ed, bull market started october 12, 2022 the s&p reaching a new record high between