lose a tax break, that older workers are allowed to make. the contributions won't be able to make. only after tax >> not talking older-older workers. my parents do a lot of catches this is a big deal >> not free tax dollars. thanks for watching "stock lunch. welcome to "closing bell "this make-or-break hour, where earnings will get going or confirm or cancel it first, your score cord with 60 minutes to go in regulation the dow with six up days in a row. we're off the high for the day good for 80 point s. that's a nice day for jpmorgan tech is strong, as well. netflix and tesla are higher they get set to report mid-week.

apple shares are getting a lift. and we're going to talk about that stock with eric woodring. he put out a new note on it today. we'll catch up with him in a bit. interest rates are mostly lower. and that, you have to believe is keeping the pressure off of stocks a bit, as well. the question that many investors are grappling with, is it solid to be on this bull market or skeptical of it. here's the answer. are you sold on it >> i've been skeptical the whole way up people have been angry on it i haven't changed my mind. i see it now, with the run-up really far we have valuations at extended levels by any measure. you can look at it historical measure and currently. it looks extended, particularly in tech and the growthy areas. however, tom lee made the call last week. we have more room to run

he was right we can keep going, until there's a reason not to. i think there's going to be a reason not to. obviously, next week is a big week with the fed. could be the last hike i'm still not entirely sold they're going to hike. we're done with hikes and we have a new era and stocks have to grapple with that >> the idea that the fed is going to hike in july. most people think that's a foregone conclusion, including the guy we follow at jp m pp moren. he put out a note a few moments ago. we see the fed hiking in the july meeting, the downside means a narrow path to a soft landing is modestly wider. he goes on the talk about stocks we disagree. there's a view that come

suggests that we're in the middle innings rather than the end of the cycle further, they have a defensive stance, such as risk equities and credit he's not willing to be sold, to our question on the rally itself he does at admit there's a wider path to a soft landing does that make you more op optimistic >> optimistic that it doesn't have to be aterrible, catastrophic recession but it has to be something, in my view, that resets the business cycle i think we're pretty decidedly late cycle and the way that inflation has come down. some of the stock market behavior would tell you we are late cycle there will be some kind of contraction. i don't know what that has to be maybe it doesn't have to be that big, prolonged or deep

i think the tricky part for investors is that, i don't say this stuff to paint with a broad brush and say every index has to go down with the same voracity and speed. it could be that the nasdaq bottomed and maybe the s&p 500 and dow will go down more this time. i think a pullback is in order >> why do we have to be light cycle? why is that the case thinking about late cycle. early expansion. and then, the mid expansion. if we can live in mid cycle, it would be great late cycle, the economy has overheated that causes inflation. demand has outstripped supply. overheat as an economy the fed has to cool it down and get it back down to an area that's comfortable >> what if we're in a sweet

spot where the economy is, where the labor market is, where inflation is and the reads on what suggests you would be right are being misread because of where we were from the beginning not like the economy was overheated to get inflation where it was we had supply shocks people will make the argument that we overstimulated the economy. on the backside of the pandemic, maybe we are looking at things the wrong way. >> if we don't use overheated, it was imbalanced. it caused the effect of inflation becoming an issue. the indicators, it's not necessarily a matter of reading them the wrong way that's what they're saying things about manufacturing pmi and contraction for a long time, leading economic indicators, that includes the s&p 500 as a

component. leading economic indicators over a six-month period, down 8.4%. it's never gotten worse than 3% without a recession to follow. and the fact that we're ending the hiking cycle, that's late cycle behavior, as well. i don't think we're in a sweet spot, if we're in the sweet spot >> the idea that the bears are too focused on the past, how would you argue against that that was joe's views today on "halftime. the bears are too focused on all of the stuff, in some respects of what you said if we're at the end of the hiking sickle, that's bullish, not negative >> markets tend to bottom after the fed starts cutting if we're at the end, there will be a pause and the next phase of that will

be a cut it's the catalyst that will make them cut, if the joes are right or the bears are right if they have to cut in reaction to data that softens faster than they want it to and can't get around it, that's a bad thing. >> what if they cut that inflation is down? >> that would be the positive side they could cut to normalize policy and neither restrict and hum along at a decent pace the thing that sticks with me, is inflation is growing. it's still growing and all of the cuts are still high muff much higher than 12 months ago >> it gets going in the morning with bank earnings and we get into tech. what if earnings aren't as bad as people thought they would be? >> that's the theme this year,

right? >> we've lower ed bar and skippd over this low bar and everyone thinks this is fine. this earnings season will be the third that's negative, year over year it will be the worst one before a nice turnaround, if expectations are correct it's possible if the expectations are right around negative 7% growth financials have set a pretty good tone for earnings season. much of it relies on the fact that rates were up and they made more money on the lending side and there's consumers wanting to spend. they are spending on credit. that's an earl later. there's not stress now in the consumer >> the labor market is robust. >> right as long as that remains the way it is now, does that continue as

of late? >> sure does people will feel confident they can get another job. there's not been a big indication that people should feel different that's why you're seeing all of the consumer sentiment come out. you have market up, inflation down job market still strong. consumers will say, i feel great. i'm going to keep spending money. the issue is, they are spending it on credit cards and some of it, taking out loans. there was an article over the weekend, $9 trillion in home equity credit, because people are using that they don't want to refinance and pay a higher mortgage rate now, we have a new leverage that's entered the system. >> let's expand the conversation good to see you. appreciate you being here. what do you make of what you heard from liz >> i think i have to join liz here saying i'm not going to buy all-in on being a bull in this market

we've been bearish most of this year having a mild recession, a larger pullback, in the fourth quarter of this year we're saying between labor day and the end of the year. and a lot of it, in our minds, has to do with the timing of the weakness of the consumer you mentioned the red flags in this economy the economic indicator is down all of the things you and liz are talking about. we sit and say, what is it then, that is not allowing the things to let us in full recession. what is keeping that from happening? artificial stimulus from the government and also, combining that with the labor market guys just mentioned it we got pay raises for the first time in two years higher than the level of inflation

consumers feel confident in what they're doing. at the same time, fiscal policy with inflation reduction act infrastructure act what's the event that we think is going to bring us to a mild recession or a pullback? when those elements start to weaken we don't know when that is high interest credit card data saying in june, spending was less right now, the bulls have a leg up i think the warning signs and the red flags, you can't ignore them >> the bulls have had a lot of leg up being bearish is mostly wrong. you point to a number of reasons you shouldn't be as negative, in a consumption-based economy, where two-thirds of activity is

due to the consumer. why still so negative? >> it's a question we talked about last week. are we being stubborn? we know that consumers will run out of savings that they had and we know disposable income is going to come down if some of the components and the way to stop growing at the rate they're growing. when they do, and when some of the liquidity of the market comes out. we probably would have seen a recession already. look at the elements and you can't say they're not going to happen this time when you look at these -- i know it's looking in the past for some people. looking at what yields are doing. looking at economic indicators and money growth, i don't think you can ignore those science

we thought we were going to have a recession that now there is a wider path for a soft landing. >> you're not investing like it. i mean, if you're saying well, there's a wider path, but i'm still negative -- where is the investable, actionable play off of that perspective? just saying it, doesn't really mean anything. >> i agree we've never been out of the market just because we're bearish ish doesn't mean let's go to cash. many times on your show, right, about the rotation maybe we take advantage of some of the safer bets. we're not overweight on the top seven names. that's unheard of. we're looking to find ways to add a little cyclical exposure

still, having the health care and being well-positioned. we don't want to be underexposed we want to be smart where we're going in we want quality earnings we want to see how meargins do. those are the companies we want to invest in we added to oracle we added to adobe. we're in there making trades for the market we're trying to be msmart in our decisions so we don't get caught on the wrong side. when the event happens later this year. >> brian, you sold on this rally or skeptical of it >> i'm sold on it. i've been sold all year. we need to differentiate between the macro and the market the economy is going to slow that's what the fed wants to have happen.

the stock market fell 25.4%, peak to trough last year that's in line with the historical mild recessions in the past '81, '91 everyone who keeps talking that inflation has to bottom -- that markets have to bottom in a recession, that's historically been true. but has been with quince coincidence with inflation peaking. it's a bizarre cycle and a different cycle. what we're doing is rallying because inflation has come down rapidly. you can look at any time in u.s. history and say, how did the markets do after inflation peaked how did the markets do after the end of a tightening cycle? and almost every instance, the markets have done very well. this time is no different.

investors are getting a little fomo, not buying in a very good year >> you say the markets bottom after the fed starts hiking? >> after they start cutting. >> does that mean you think that october lows of last year are in play >> the drawdown we saw, would be consistent with a mild recession or a bear market absent of a recession. if that ensues or have one mild - >> maybe we did. manufacturing -- maybe we had this -- that's another issue whether we actually had the recession already, in the critical part to the economy that would be more effective by what the fed has done. >> the end has not declared it if they're the authority, it didn't happen. >> we know the market is in a recession. >> a mild recession or a bear

market if there's a classic resegs -- i'm not talking about armageddon we probably did not price that in yet the idea that the market is expecting a soft landing or a mild contraction, is consistent with what happened already usually you see indicators are negative, at least a little while. that's where you get beyond 30% con krax, usually a regular recession. you get about 34% in a contraction. we did not price that in yet you hear people saying, we could be headed for new lows i'm not going to declare that's possible i'm never going to try to call the top or the bottom. i'll be wrong every time that's why the argument is out there. >> your bet is that we are not going to have a recession. you will not have cyclical sectors in the second half

>> the market priced in a recession. what we're doing there, is s seeing leadership shift. based on whether or not the market is concerned that tightening will be worse than they had expected. from october of last year, through january or february, a nice trade cyclical, that give way to march, april, may. the economic data was too hot. you had banking challenges where are we now the economy is still good and the inflation is at 3% you're getting a broadening out here this is more of a recovery trade. our opinion for the rest of the year, you want to be cyclical values, small, emerging markets. that doesn't mean you can't feel a little bit of a contraction phase, ahead of the downturn in 2024 and the economy i'm not convinced that we're not going to see a recession i'm convinced we have seen the

bottom in mid-october. you may see flipping back to taking a lead in early 2024. the critical point is that investors have a time beyond a few minutes. one year, two year, remember we're living in new cycles play out. that will be cyclical equity >> i appreciate it, liz. victoria, thank you, as well brian, we'll talk to you soon. let's get to the twitter question of the day. which stocks will get the biggest earnings pop this week netflix, tesla, or united airlines please vote on twitter results coming up later in the hour in the meantime, check on top stocks to watch as we head into the close >> let's talk about shares of at&t they're hitting the lowest level

since 1993, as the stock gets handled as it lets toxic lead cables be carried across the country. analysts are cutting the stock from neutral to buy, and slashing the target from $16 sun run is surging, as morgan stanley raises the price targets to -- raises the price target, by $9, to $39 a share. they say there's an opportunity for sun run to gain share in sunny california >> thank you rather sunny on wall street right now. dow jones industrial average good for nearly 150 points new 52-week high at this moment. for the s&p 500. we're green across the board nasdaq is up 150 we're getting started. eric woodring on the next

frontier just raised his price target on apple. calling for 40% upside in his bull case he makes to you next live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go.

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we're back shares of apple, on the back of morgan stanley, to boost the target this morning. eric woodring is making a big bet on apple in india. he calls it the tech giant's next growth frontier welcome back good to see you.

>> thanks for having me. >> is that why you're raising to a bull market? >> there's two factors one is introducing india as the next growth frontier we think that india will account for 15% of apple's revenue growth over the next five years. if you look back, china has accounted for 18% of apple's revenue growth we're making the argument that on a go-forward basis, india will be as important to apple's growth story as china was over the last five years. we think that says a lot over how important we think india will welcome >> the second part was really updating our price target to 220, from 190. that's the function of greater confidence in apple building this base of new users some of which come from india.

and the other factor here, thinking about apple about this low churn, consumer technology platform and topping apple to the peers think of a google. you go to google to search amazon for shopping, et cetera we were just topping our -- updating our price target. marking it to market 220 is where we're hat 270 is based off of the lifetime value of apple user base, as apple in the next 40-plus years. >> when do we get to what i could call a significant reacceleration of revenue growth right now, we have forecasting revenue declines about 2% in the june quarter we think you get back to 6%.

we think that becomes more meaningful in fiscal 24. i was listening to the conversation we've seen revenue decline in three of four quarters june is also a decline we're facing easier compares we think that's a meaningful factor the dollar as a less prohibitive headwind is going to be a meaningful factor. and coming out of the iphone 14 cycle into the iphone 15 cycle can drive growth it's services and iphones. fiscal 24 is when we see more growth question have 10% growth in 2024 >> what if we launch a new phone in the september quarter, into a deepening slowdown in china? in terms of shares, why the

shares are getting a pass on the weakness in china. all of these luxury names get hit but apple doesn't. >> china is an interesting market for apple it's very aspirational market. it's a brand to reach other luxury goods that's part of the luxury culture in china we think if there's a consumer in china that's out buying an iphone 14 today, that's unlikely an iphone 14 becomes old in let's call it two months we actually think there's a pause in demand in china right now for the iphone in general, when the iphone 15 is launched, presumably in the middle of september, we think the chinese consumer comes back there. china has been shut down for apple for the last three years we think there's demand there.

that's a significant upgrade for. that's the piece we're running with today >> are you thinking at all, any acquisition for apple? bob iger talks about the future of espn or networks. you see a day where apple would make a huge splash >> 2013, apple acquired beach for $15 million. that's the biggest acquisition if that tells you anything about their propensity to buy versus build. we've seen them build out a streaming tv service, apple tv plus, entirely on their own.

do i think it will be interesting? absolutely i think sports is bigger for apple. i think when apple is inquisitive in using their cash for transformative mma, it's lower. >> you think modeling, apple plus espn, what that might look like not the whole thing of disney. but an asset like that are you entertaining that in my way? >> one, as a sports fan, that would be awesome but that's something we have to contemplate. but the odds of that happening today are low. i told you, sports becomes more important to apple i don't think we can ignore that we have to think what that scenario would create from a fundamentals perspective >> we'll talk more about it. erik appreciate your time. erik woodring from morgan stanley.

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the health of investment banking will be front and center when morgan stanley and goldman sachs report results are we going to hear green chutes in my way, shape or form? >> if i had a dollar for every time i heard green chutes this earnings season, i would be richer dealmaking has been dormant for

a while now. it's created a slump in fees for firms that advise on acquisitions and ipos. the banking haul is expected to be down 22%, in 2q and we saw glimpses of that. on friday, citibank reported 24% year over year jpmorgan included 7%, including markdowns from positions in the portfolio. we get another read from bank of america and morgan stanley and goldman sachs on wednesday morgan stanley had a representative that had a quarter. that has shrunk. executives from the firms that has reported the green chutes are out there, that may signal a turnaround but the question is when that materializes into revenue. how strong that pipeline is. how confident are they in that

pipeline i'll be able to sit down with james goreman and with bank of america ceo, brian moynihan. >> we look forward to those interviews >> a lot of the things that we are lined up pretty well obviously, valuations are higher growth stocks are in favor again. that's setting the scene for ipos there should be backlog in it. now, things are late friendlier. less hostile on the regulatory fr front, of the activision case. sometimes that matters since we're coming off of a perceived mma regulatory environment, it's hard to see that as something that would

diswaded dissuade they've come off the lows and they're flat over two years, not down much. >> maybe we will hear about a better environment in the next few months there's a number of months you cover this closely there are a number of big names in the pipeline for ipos >> they are in the pipeline. the question is when they take that next step of listing, of going public to mike's point, the activision news is a definite positive sign, for thinking, i'd like to do this deal but given the regulatory environment, i am going to wait this out for a while we're going through the court through that process the prospect of actually being able to consummate deals, is a

green shoot here, as well. >> is it overstating it that in the span of a week, the skies are bluer in the mna and dealmaking world that happened with microsoft and act vision >> i think so. there's been negative with regards to the prospect of doing a deal, only to wind up in court and have it all block ed and going through all of that behind the scenes, where your business is basically stuck in purgatory and not making too much strategic change that definite ly makes things better >> leslie, thank you look forward to the interviews of yours, as well. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we go into the close. >> we have some trouble with pools and yetis. it's not about a weekend at your house. the real details after this break.

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less than 20 before the closing bell looking at the stocks. >> in the heat wave across the country, i want to talk about pools. shares are down 18% on a lowers

outlook for the year management is saying that higher prices is causing double-digit traffic climbs in key businesses and there's no need to buy more pool chemicals that's why it's from hold to buy and cut the price target and those with pools, i'm sure you have a yeti to keep your drinks cool. scott seems like the kind of guy to do. yeti competition is up and high inventory levels could hurt q4 performance. they have underestimated the stock and that's why it's down >> neither a pool nor a yeti >> i don't know you that well then >> nope. you only think you do. kristina, thank you. last chance to weigh in on the twitter question we asked which of the stocks can get the biggest earnings pot this week. netflix, tesla, or united airlines you can go to twitter. the results after the break.

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i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt. the results of the twilter question which stocks would get the biggest earning. tesla. 50%. shares up 133% this year that's the winner. netflix second up next, dimming the lights. ford shares are falling today after the company announced price cuts on the electric f-150

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resistance to the upside mode. we have peace on the macro front. that leaves us now i think with a point of how many people have already bought into the full case are there others to be persuaded? i think there's others to be per persuaded. the market's mechanics the seasonal stock, whether we get a spiral of hot money just driving the teslas and the invidias that's where it feels like we are, with anything happening on the yield front or really macro. a lot of the threats seem neutralized at the moment. i don't think everybody is in the overconfident phase. >> trying to think of an earning season that goes up, where you have many of the stocks as high as it is

nvidia is up 160% today. and tesla up 120%. no slouch in either way. >> and both of them riding what the companies have said. se tesla gives you the volume and the sales figures before the earnings report. you know what you're working with and still working on the nvidia upside guide people have their eyes big or the confirmation for that. that's something to look for we have some of the news and responses, no matter what the results say. right now, we have the broadening trend since about memorial day, the s&p is up more than the market cap one. i like that the new cases inflation are coming down. what it mean for profit margin just keep roll ing for the next

thing to worry about >> tesla's gains, since we're talk about that, contributing to ford's pain, if you will stocks down more than 5% or 6% i think you can say there's a direct correlation >> there's a correlation on who has momentum with electric vehicles right now it's tesla is it gm or ford tesla has a year of gm and ford ramping up production of the e.v. that momentum has been squandered that's gone in terms of the investor who is out there right now. ford, today, cutting the prices on the f-150 lightning they are doing this because they have ready supply. that the manufacturing capacity is increasing. they can afford to do this right now. when you cut prices 7% to 16%, you're trying to stoke demand. i talked to ford dealers they said the same thing we have supply of f-150 lightning. now, we are hoping to see

demand that's what ford is hoping to do gm and ford report their q2 results next week. we'll hear from them you can bet, a lot of the questions will focus on where they are not just ramping up e.v.s. but getting momentum back. with momentum there, it's gone it's evaporated in the next few months >> this was jim farley taking a page out of mr. musk's book. you cut prices to stimulate demand he's cutting them a lot. >> absolutely. and by the way, when i talk with people not at ford headquarters, but people out in the field, i hear it's a good start $10,000 off of a vehicle is going to attract the attention you have to bring the prices down more if you want to get people into electric vehicles and electric pickup trucks >> bill, thank you julia, out to you in los angeles.

looks like the paramount lot is the one behind you and the picketers that continue to walk. >> that's right. we have the s.a.g.-astra and the picket line for me the media giants are going different directions on the heels of this strike right now ahead of netflix earnings on wednesday afternoon, netflix shares are up about 2% bolstered by analysts pointing out the company's advantage if there's a drawn-out strike scioscia bank raised its price target, saying all of the headwinds that are plaguing the traditional tv and media companies are the tail-end for netflix, citing the crackdown of password sharing shares of disney are up 3% the concerns of the impact from this strike, as well as issues raised d by bob iger last week. look at some of the media

stocks m paramount and warner brothers are down on concerns about the impact of a strike >> julia, it's interesting netflix is the one that's not taking the brunt of the pain here you covered that story closely, as well. >> the key thing about netflix is that its user base is so international. and the content it produces is international. the percentage of it shows that they're going to have to shut down production for those that are pushed on here it's smaller than the other companies. netflix can have big global hits think about "squid games" that are produced overseas. they can tap into that this shows on their own cadence. they're not beholden to the

traditional fall tv model, if you will >> good point you make, julia. julia boorstin out for us in the market zone. we'll turn back to mike santoli as we approach the two-minute warning. got the yield at 380 the long end of the curve. >> it is they've taken the pressure off here more important than the level is the fact that credit has come in to high yield spreads and are back where they were in february what a corrector -- what the credit market has a crystal ball or not, it shows there's not a lot of stress buildup in the system in the immediate moment this die vergence is showing a little on the legacy challenge ford, the disneys, paramount, warners, at&t today. >> brutal day. >> all of the 19th and 20th

century businesses they're at a tough spot. they have to figure out the secular and the cyclical and therefore, $10 trillion of market cap in the nasdaq seems like a refuge. they're getting expensive. maybe they get overlogged. but for now, the mechanics are keeping the overall market supported. >> as long as you continue to have questions about those, for legacy businesses, you will have money go to the perceived ports, if you will. not necessarily that were in a storm. everyone isly the ones that are deemed to be the safest and most secure >> i don't know if there's something specific as i said before, it seems like it's more about when you get to extremes of crowd ing in certain stocks it will probably not be the interest rate trigger the way it was in early 2022.

something is probably out there. >> got a little peel off of the dow. it's positive. a few moments ago, we had a 52-week high for the s&p 500 nasdaq, same story the outperformance of nearly up 1% over to q"o.t." with morgan and john john. we've got a busy show coming your way