promotion in every state except new jersey >> except new jersey because of another copyright holder. >> maybe we'll have to find out who it is and go there let's go find them thanks, everybody, for watching "power lunch." enjoyed having you >> enjoy your tackes on. the dow is up 357 points "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> all right kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. this make or break begins with another new high for stocks and whether the fear of missing out might just keep this rally going for a while. we'll ask ankur crawford in a moment and your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation and the dow up sharply for most of the day, better than 300 led mostly by -- well, microsoft's having another great day another a.i. announcement and another gain for the stock and those shares have been surging united health continuing its post earnings rally and getting another upgrade today, as well

there it is up 3.5% and a strong day for morgan stanley and bank of america after those companies reportedearnings the ceos on the network today and wall street liking what they had to say as well and nice gains for both of those. the nasdaq is higher, too. a mixed day for some sft more popular mega-cap names and there's the nasdaq accelerating near the highs of the day up 1%. it leads us to the talk of the tape the rally resiliency and the s&p another 52-week high today the big question, of course, how long can this bull run really last, and post nine, and there she is and what's the answer the market doesn't seem to want to go down >> yeah. in part it doesn't want to go down because the numbers for 2024 are moving up and as we go through this earnings season that the street has for s&p earnings and 2024 likely moves higher the multiple moves higher as the

numbers move higher. >> i've heard from some people this week that the bear story's old and tired and like yesterday's story and can turn the page do you believe that? >> i think that we have to take a hard landing scenario off the table and then as we approach 2024, it becomes more difficult for us to believe in a downward trajectory to earnings if you look at the tech earns, for example, we've troughed and now we're starting to reakel rate and grow again. that is a very different scenario than when everyone thought earnings would fall off the clive and go with the s&p. >> the multiples have expanded and p-es have got enricher in the period of time that you cite we're not too expensive on some of those tech names because that's the criticism and the pushback you get is yes, these are the places to be and for good reason, but now they're just too rich. >> and i would remind you,

nvidia has always looked rich. at 150 it looked and the numbers have followed suit the stocks went up before the numbers went up, and so i think we'll see that revision again with microsoft, with meta. the numbers will go up so the multiples will then look cheaper than they are today. >> so those who say it's too soon to say all clear. there are a number of notes that have come out and said okay, the path to a soft landing might be wider, the time for a recession may be further and it's still hanging out there and it's too soon to say again. >> i don't think anyone can sound the all-clear signal, but we are coming to a point in time in 2024 when there's government stimulus whether it's the c.h.i.p.s act, the jobs act, and i know this is a bit trite for, you know, everyday people are

talking about gen a.i. the impact that gen a.i. is going to have on the economy will start to bear fruit i think in 2024. mega-cap techs will pick up their capex numbers which will have a kind of velocity in the economy that i think will be surprising >> overall for earnings, for tech, do you think the bar is higher for nvidia? i'm going on stocks that you like, and i know that you own. nvidia, meta, microsoft. >> nvidia is up a ton. meta is up a ton microsoft's not exactly up a ton, but it's up a lot so theoretically, the bar for all three would be kind of high. who do you think is the highest? >> look, i think that the bar is high going into this earnings season do i expect that, you know, the stocks can be up 10%, 20% on earnings probably not. >> that's what we said before nvidia reported. look at what happened after that

>> i don't think there's a revision for any of these names that is significant in any one quarter, but i would focus where the 24 numbers are going for each of those companies and as long as that keeps rising it will support the stocks. >> as long as rates don't rise, as well. do you think that's part of the story here that, you know -- i don't know, two weeks ago we're talking about the ten-year at 4% and now we're below 380 the last i looked and it's 378. so rates have come back down again. how critical is that to your tech story >> i think rates stabilizing is more crucial to the durations and buying duration story versus, you know, we went from 0% fed funds rate to 5.5, 5.25 that was a bigger impact to the duration on names than, i think what the ten-year is doing in

the near-term. >> are we getting past the stage, as well, where the competition elsewhere just isn't that great anymore >> that it's too -- it's too risky in some sense to be out of the equity market where ass before there was too much risk in you go money market 5%, treasurys 5% and the shortest end of the curve, we're getting that what about now risk reward for equities versus elsewhere. >> so for a long time that we had this idea of tina where there was no alternative to equities because of the bond market i do think there is more competition for each dollar now in terms of equities and bonds however, bondholders got taken out last year, and i think it's making them re-think their exposure that said, with equities, if you look at free cash flow yields with these businesses, it isn't -- you know, it's pretty high still the free cash flow yield on the market is 3.5%

so, you know, there is compelling risk reward in the market and i do think it's a stock picker's market and you have to be selective. >> at what point do you think -- you tell me, fear of missing out, this fomo market where too many people are offsides, you know, bad positioning and now some of that money is finally coming into the market and that's the real sort of engine behind what could be the next leg if we, in fact, have one >> i do think that that is happening. funds have a lot of cash there was a lot of retail money on the sidelines and that is coming into the market as the market goes up every day >> again, if you look at the ping-pong -- as you talk the ping-ponging range of the market, well, maybe that new range is 4,4800. >> that's the thing. the rates keep moving higher and people are raisings a result of better late than never.

>> when the numbers are my moving high, that's natural phenomenon i do expect go ahead in the previous highs >> wow this year? >> this year >> new highs, s&p 4800ing north of that impeach does that sound unreason reason and nicole, nice to see you again what do you think about that call >> i would say it stands that we are in the exact same camp, i would hold the sentiment that it is the natural phenomenon of the market and our portfolio positioning all year has been as we see stability regain in the trajectory of where rates are headed, we have a positive

outlook and the really friendly component to all of this that sits below this bifurcation between what we talk about in terms of economic threats and then where the market has been headed is that relative outperformance for being in-risk assets versus risk-free at five has driven more of this money into the market. it's perpetuatingthis idea tha you are paid to be risk off, and it's more expensive to be on the sidelines which is to work this money that you know is park, and the faster we get this money to work, the faster we gain stability is for us to be in these towards fruition, and we see legs this market for ward.

>> whenever someone bullish i think given the run that we've had and the risks that still remain >> the interesting thing about the market is that known risks are generally priced into the market in good time and to your point, scott, there's been a lot of positive narratives that have come to fruition in 2023 the story of a.i., the story of tech cost-cutting. we think about travel, leisure and the strength and resilience and the consumer look at home depot, lowe's fine, if i can't switch homes then i'll invest in my current home this next leg, while you know, from our perspective is we start to actually start to look at consumer goods again and we look at these companies that have been beat up by underperforming sales and the change in the

psychology of the consumer to invest in experiences versus goods, but again, the more resilience we see in the consumer the more we believe that they'll start to even out how they spend money and so there are still these beat up names and beat up because of inventory and beat up because of consumer spending. the targets, the nikes and the estee lauders of the world where we actually see forward momentum there which brings us, you know, to the stock picker's market, and the narrative ofwhat is still relatively beat up and available out there, and on trend as we look forward >> ankur, bob pisani published a piece today that said bullishness is rising and that's not necessarily good, and he points to a bank of america fund manager survey more than 200 global fund managers, 68% expect a soft landing. only 10% say they're underweight u.s. stocks. you get the point that he's sort of making, that once, you know,

everybody gets in the pool the pool is a little crowded and it's not necessarily the greatest place to be what's your opinion on that? >> first, everyone has to get in the pool and then we can decide if it's too crowded. so if you look at funds today i do think they're still underweight and some of the big tech names that are moving and working against them in the benchmarks, i don't think everyone is overweight the digital advertising names yet. i don't think they're overweight amazon yet, so i still think there's room to go, but first and foremost we should look at the fundamental valuations on these names. >> i mean, let's look at valuations on the whole market you don't think the current 19 times is too rich for the s&p which is well above the historical average >> well, according to -- 20 minutes ago the s&p -- the street earnings were at 2.45 for a 2024 and that's an 18% multiple on the market i don't think that's too rich.

it it more value and can we run to 20 times? we could run to 20 times especially if the 245 is moving up and if i told you next year was 2.06 and not 2.45. you would say the market is going up. >> some would say 2.45 looks like a pipe dream at this point. we're still expecting an earnings decline this quarter. so we still have to get to a point where we really think that's a realistic number. you do 2.45 sounds legit? >> what i would say is we have to start with baby steps first this earnings season, i believe numbers in aggregate for the market will move up. our 2.20 or 2.19 on the street will highly, likely move up and in part of the backs for 40% of the market which is the digital tezing and the tech names. so given that, will com pound into 2024 and that number should rise, as well. >> what do i make, nicole of the

fact and it's not getting talked about that much because tech has sort of sucked all of the air out of the room. the industrials. some of these cyclical areas like transports. transports have been at a high is that any kind confirmation to you that this is, in fact, a more healthy market than some would otherwise have you believe? >> absolutely. you hit the nail on the head for us we led with data that suggests that you still have these cyclical and credit sensitive areas of the market with high demand we're getting a read-through from the banks that have reported thus far into loan demand we see some of these incremental costs come down when we talk about cost of transport. all of that in aggregation together for us, supports this short-term bull narrative where there is a lot of momentum in the market upon.

so yes, you are moving toward greater consensus that we have dodged the imminent recession that we have been talking about ad nauseam so as we start to see more support and yes, it is not until the pool is completely full that we can discuss if it's too crowded, but we believe that earnings revisions we'll continue to see posted better than expected and we'll see forward guidance that takes the data supporting strength and resilience, not just in labor, but in how the consumer is responding and how businesses are adjusting as a result of a.i. and also watching and learning from the narrative of your largest companies cutting costs and seeing incremental benefits that really invest back into the business. all of this plays into there is still room to continue forward >> so ankara, i'm looking at the nasdaq because it seems to me

like we're at the highs of the day. an index and a sector that was sort of lagging the rest of the market today, there you go it's better than 1% on an intra-day base as a negative stock it was trying to go positive as well and there you go it is positive so we will start really talking about these companies in the next couple of weeks and they're the ones that have to live up to the hype >> right so i'm going to -- i'm going to point you to what satya nadella said today at microsoft inspire. satya talked about how gen a.i. would add $10 trillion to global gdp. a 10% increase on a relative basis to gdp over the next decade, and i think that's kind of vision that we have to look to as we think through where these companies can go and the earnings power of these companies and these businesses over the long term >> you don't often see microsoft

with a 5% gain in a day. it just doesn't tend to move like that, and it's in part on what you're talking about, what satya nadella had to say at that event and that stock really wanted to take off so it's at the highs of the day and then we see tech following suit. >> i think we'll talk about these numbers moving up and one of the big surprises out of the event was they introduced microsoft co-pilot and a $30 per seat per month pricing the street is looking at $8 to $10 per seat per month so automatically, that's $20 extra per seat per month in everyone's models. >> and that pushes the numbers up >> talk to you soon. let's get to the twitter question of the day. which stock is more in danger of of a post-earnings sell-off? netflix or tesla please vote. in the meantime, a check on top

stocks to watch as we head into the close, and kristina partsinevelos joins us as always with that. >> pinterest jumping higher to outperform from evercore isi digital ad spending will stabilize and there might be indications of a recovery for this stock in the second half of the year and that's why it is up 4.5% in the bullish call and it came out in the afternoon. meanwhile, prologis and posting a record quarterly earnings report and they boosted their outlook for the year, but investors are focused on the fact that the industrial real estate investment trust which is prologis lowered its rent growth forecast and they expect vacancies to increase in the second half of this year shares are down 4% the prologis ceo will be on to talk about the latest quarter and what the company plans to focus on going forward good stuff thank you very much, kristina. we're just getting started

stocks are higher across the board. our next guest, though thinks the next leg higher could be in jeopardy schwab's kevin gordon is back. he's been cautious and he'll talk us to now about why it sounds like he still is even in the face of this rally we are live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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bell." stocks higher this month and investor cheering softer inflation data that could give them reason to pause soon and

james gorman giving his predictions. >> its had to argue for more rate increases and a counter number could push that i think the odds are definitely against that and those calling for a rate cut this year that won't happen. >> our next guest says the fed won't be as quick -- won't be as quick as investors to declare victory -- excuse me on inflation. charles schwab senior investment strategist is with me now. >> you know the question i want to ask you, you've been cautious for a while since we've been having these conversations, what it's like to be cautious like you're been in the face of a market that goes up in your faisal most every day and looks like it wants to keep going every day. what's the psyche around that? >> the caution has lessened as breadth has started to improve so over the past couple of months, june was a pretty important turning point, if it holds, where you have a widening

of the breadth the last time we talked about this i sort of mentioned a checklist that you have to start seeing and checking boxes off to determine whether it's a healthier bull or durable bull market and you started to see that in june a number of 52-week highs for the s&p into double-digit territory in a percentage basis. you can start to see that. it hasn't yet made its way to the nasdaq or the russell 2000, but participation is getting better there i think the caution can come down as that breadth improves, and that's what you look for when you get nine months off of a major market low and that's what you have to pay attention to >> you still don't sound like you're fully onboard with this bull market. i mean, let's just call it what it is. >> more so because of the participation and the broadening out and probably you need to see the confirmation from an earnings perspective and hopefully you get a better trajectory in q2 than q1 unless you get a miraculous move higher

and part of the reason yet market did well in the first half is baz it looked at this improvements trajectory. so if that holds, then you probably have more room for this to run and especially as some of the air gets taken out of the top heaviness part of the market and then you get more participation under the surface and that's what we've been looking for and that's starting to happen. >> do you think the bear case is played out or not? >> it depends on which part of the market you talk about, but the bear case for the economy probably not as much so because data at least in the near-term has look better and probably not recessionary, but our view has been that you push out the recession, so-called the declared recession further interest the future and it's probably a worst case for the market as you go further into the future better now because you can have rallies when the yield curves invert and you can have rallies when you're in a deeper earnings recession. so i wouldn't use that specifically just to say that the market will do poorly. >> i feel that you in some

respects representative of a number of people who have been cautious who look like they're looking for the towel to throw it in. to throw in the towel on being negative is that fair >> from a broader investor perspective, and you were talking about sentiment at the open of the show, i think that's an important thing to watch for if you get a lot more people piling in. now it's starting to happen on a behavioral side where flows are starting to move back into equities and embracing a more risk on message. is that good or bad? >> in and of itself, not bad it sets you off in the negative catalyst and to the extent that you get earnings or fed related, agree. maybe, that works on the downside, too. so back in october, when you have conditions in sentiment that are as dower as they were, that sets you up for, you know, a bit of a bounce and a strong bounce in the case of october especially in the cap-weighted s&p and it works in both directions and frothy sentiment is not going to be the thing that you should turn

automatically bearish on >> does the fed burst our bubble at the next meeting? because it's not like we think they're going to go at the next meeting. the market doesn't even seem to care, and i guess the market doesn't think that they'll go again, but even if they do, this doesn't look like a market that's much upset about anything. >> you mean go again after july? >> yeah. >> the fed, for all of the flack they get i think they do a pretty good job of guiding the market to where they're going to go, meeting by meeting now i think july is probably baked in barring some major surprise between now and then >> for sure. >> for sure. >> i don't think that from the financial conditions, trying to put financial conditions back down, i don't think that the market based financial conditions indexes and powell has alluded to this, and i don't think that's what they're specifically looking at and they're looking at broader metrics that are tightening standards and access to credit on the small business level and they're taking a broader view. i don't think they're looking at

the stock market and saying oh, because equities are higher we have to bring it down. barring some major resurgence in inflation which, thankfully it looks like we're on the downward trajectory >> what's the biggest risk in the market right now earnings >> near-term sentiment and if you take some sort of negative catalyst in the form of earnings -- >> you mean sentiment getting too positive and too much euphoria mixed with maybe a miss on earnings in terms of q2 not looking as good as q1. for all of the moves in estimates and for all of 2023 for earnings and all of that came from just q1. it wasn't carried through from the rest of the quarters so if you get the similar trajectory in q2 it's a positive signal and that's great, too one of the risks that we're kicking off the second half of the year, i would just look to, and not in a dire sense, but i think this expected resurgence that you get in 2024 earnings doesn't really match with, i

think, a sub trend growth environment that the fed is looking for and that's when you get a pain point for them. >> we had a gest on before you suggest that 245 of earnings next year seems reasonable >> i mean, it could be, but i also think that's really far out. look how much earnings have been adjusted just throughout the course and not just since october and year to date you've had significant revisions down in areas of tech and you've had significant revisions higher in communications services and you have to take it quarter by quarter. it's a murky environment for companies in general and being able to guide well a year out i don't think that's easy at all >> microsoft reminds us today of what the a.i. hype machine is all about. in some cases backing it up. the stock's up near 5% what does that mean just going into earnings for tech specifically given the run in those stocks that we've seen >> i get the hype around a.i. in general. i think one of the mistakes you can probably make in looking out

over the long term would be just describing it to only the tech sector, and i think you can apply it clearly, the technology is helpful to sectors like ours being financials and industrials, i think it's part of the reason we started to see breadth widen out a little bit and not just within tech tech and industrials have some of the best breadth profiles among all sectors and the mistake would be thinking it's only a tech story, and not investing in any other part of the marketbecause of that, and you have to bradenoaden your le. >> kevin gordon. microsoft, we just mentioned it. a new record high and 'll we bring down behind the move and what does it mean for the big tech battle. we'll be right back.

the s&p 500 tech sector pacing for its longest monthly win streak since early 2014. that move being driven in part by today's microsoft announcement the stock hitting a record high after the company gave new

details on pricing for its a.i. products joining me for his read on all things tech is tony. welcome back nice to see you. >> good to see you, as well. >> microsoft just reminding us all that they're in the driver's seat, it would seem as it relates to a.i >> that is true or maybe the chatgpt. maybe the product manager said hey, chatgpt, the street thinks you should be ten buckses a month. 30 >> it's not lost on me either that as we see those shares higher i'm looking squarely at alphabet that stock is in the red today to my earlier point, this alleged arms race between the two is alphabet closer to microsoft or does microsoft still with announcements like today just keep telling you why they're ahead? yeah i think when we look back we saw some of the data that showed some of the adoption had slowed somewhat and that offered hope

look, microsoft keeps bringing it we heard everyone in earnings calls talk about the promise of a.i., how a.i. is getting incorporated into products, but now microsoft is showing that they're going to be really aggressive on monetizing so this is yet another step ahead that microsoft is taking in the market. >> as the stocks go up, in many cases these valuations keep growing too. the multiples get richer that's why we're here, multiple expangs. how do you assess whether valuations have gotten ahead of themselves or a lot, for that matter >> it's interesting. one of the things that we're looking at especially if we'll talk specifically about a.i. and microsoft right now is the adoption that will happen as a result of this new pricing the microsoft sales team has always been very aggressive in how they price things like 365 and now we need to see will the market adopt this. i think there are some very compelling use cases, and i

think one of the things that might have also gone a little bit unnotice side how microsoft is using bringing all these services to the cloud as a carrot to bring people from the on prim world to the cloud because those capabilities from the a.i. co-pilot won't be available on prim, but yes, back to your question, we need to see the monetization happen to justify these ever-increasing prices >> how soon do you think we'll start seeing that, right at some point wall street says we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and that's why the stocks go up and valuations are where they are, but at some point the proof has to be in the pudding. what kind runway are we talking about before we see tangible results? >> think the next two quarters are about as much patience as wall street is going to have wall street has shown patience in trying to getter understand how these companies are going to incorporate some of these new technologies, specifically, a.i. and now i think we're going to want to see that

perhaps we'll give runway to companies that we don't deep as particularly tech focused although you can argue every company is a tech company. first, we'll want to see the big tech or the magnificent seven in the next two quarters and then i think we'll look to see what some of the other companies are doing to incorporate these changes in the technology landscape to be able to accelerate their businesses. >> the other thing i'd like your take on because you've got such a first-hand look at it is the state of the so-called ipo ice age and whether you think we're closer to thaw just where are we? >> last time i was on your show we talked a little bit about this, and i think i'm going to stand firm that we're going to, i believe, see a little bit of an opening in q1 of next year. i just don't see how it could

possibly happen. we're about to enter the summer months in full force with august coming up. so there will be a little bit of a window in between the holidays, but i really think that we'll look to see how earnings play out. we also are seeing a much more broad-based rally within the stock market at first it was driven by the tech stocks and the tech stocks were reacting primarily, i think, to the data that we're seeing around inflation. we'll wait and see how the fed looks at that, and now we're seeing a broader-based rally to show it isn't condition strained just for the tech stocks and that bodes well for the overall market and the ipo market thawing a little bit even though most of the ipo pipeline are going to be those tech companies, i think the market kind of seeing that there's support to be able to increase valuations more broadly beyond tech is a good sign, as well >> when start-ups come to you with their hands out, what's

your reaction today relative to, say -- excuse me, eight to ten months ago >> yeah. it's a much different environment. i think although there are no hard and fast numbers for those early stages of investing. it's more of a feel for how the company's progress has been, there is no question that we have definitely tightened the ability for companies to be able to raise money as quickly as they have in the past, the amounts that they had raised and the associated valuations. i think this actually bodes well it will be a little bit of a psychology reset for founders, but at the end of the day we'll see fewer companies getting funded and companies that probably should not have been funded will not get funded in this new environment meaning lower amounts of competition for the true winners both in terms of acquiring customers and also getting employees. so i think overall this is a good situation and back to that psychology for the founders, a

lower valuation takes a lot of pressure off of them in being able to have more optionality and to have a little bit more patience with the business model. >> yeah. good to catch up with you, lo. we'll see you soon. >> thanks so much. >> that's lo toney up next, we're tracking the biggest movers and kristina partsinevelos standing by. >> cracker barrel, and novartis has strong sales ahead and i'll explain the details after this short break.

we've got almost 15 minutes before the close kristina partsinevelos has the stocks you're watching kristina >> swiss drurg maker novartis raised earnings forecast driven by strong sales and it spun off the medical unit that's, of course, pending shareholder approval the stock is probably also popping because of the newly announced their 15 billion share buyback for this year, up about a little over 4% let's switch gears completely and talk about pharma. shares of medical device maker masimo for its second quarter and hospitals are cutting back on equipment spending and they're dealing with increased personnel costs and that's why shares are down, look at that, almost 20% lower >> cracker barrel shares are

jumping after naming julie as the company's new president and chief executive officer. the former taco bell executive will take over for sandra cochran and will be departing the role in november following a transitionary period she was at the company for 12 years, so it is a change shares are up over 5%. >> kristina part sinevelos. last chance to weigh in. which stock is more in danger of a post-earnings sell-off netflix or tesla both up big time this year closing bell on twitter, the results after the break. ♪ ♪

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>> the results of our twitter question we asked which stocks are more in danger of a post-earnings sell-off netflix or tesla i was hoping we would get one or the other. in fact, we are basically split as both stocks have risen a lot. right now it's netflix in the lead, 51%. up next, shares of schwab shooting higher. we drill down on that move and more in the market zone. i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body

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♪ ♪ all right. we're in the zone. the market zone. cnbc marks commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. as financials earnings draw to a close, kate rooney on charles schwab mike, i turn to you. we'll look at the highs of the day. we're certainly staring at them in the nasdaq. >> yeah. for sure getting a little bit melty, you know we've been waiting for that kind of a moment. when microsoft isable to add about 150 billion in market cap on a headline and by the way, it also tells you why something has a $2.5 trillion valuation in the first place because if they're charging 30 bucks per user of the twist on 365, there are 350 million users of 365 my point is you can just do the

math and the breadth of the platforms is so big and even though it's 30 times earnings. so i think that's making its way through a lot with the nasdaq and almost all of the earnings forecasts for this year started to go higher around march 31st so we're seeing that effect take place. i do think we also have this magnetive effect of the monthly expiration on friday and this idea that people still have to turn cash into equity exposure at some level and yep, we're getting a little bit, you know, kind of greedied and video game stuff is starting with the intraday options chase and the rest of it and you have other things working such as the banks looking at a real bottom and the industrials are helping out. >> for banks, the earnings are coming above estimates and the top ceos are offering a cautiously positive outlook for the industry and the economy >> here's morgan stanley's james gorman and bank of america's brian moynihan and what they told cnbc earlier today.

>> i think we bottomed in this business four or six weeks ago now how much it improves on that for the rest of the year is unknown. next year, definitely a pickup so i think, you know, and i'm seeing with the conversations i'm having with other ceos, we just felt like april was weak and the first half of may also weak and then it started picking up in the second half in june. >> consumers are spending, they're employed and earning more money and they do have a lot of money in their accounts left over. the question is if times get tougher will there be less employment more unemployment and will there be more layoffs and things like that what do you make of what they said especially gorman i thought was reasonably optimistic and people have jobs and wages are going up at a faster pace than inflation is that's why they have the tone that they do >> morgan stanley has the window on the wealth effect flowing through their own bottom line.

bank of america, moynihan ratifying what the aggregate numbers are telling us in terms of incomes and jobs and the relatively low debt burden in terms of the service for now i think it's positive. are they going to be running their businesses as if they're assuming those good times last in which case you might be freer with lending and you might be adding more risk to parts of the business and holding on to more people i'm not sure that that's the case and i think we don't see any blow-ups in here and bigger picture and if the rest of the market's somewhat correct about a soft landing, the banks don't belong down at those levels of valuation and now you're having some of that getting made up >> the bear case becoming harder when you have, now if the banks are going to start working, when the transports are working and industrials are working and you have other things to talk about than tech. >> i think the bear case based

on the internal market action itself has become much tougher and up 25% from the low, we have not really seen a rally like that that has reversed in history, and then as you say, broadening out and things moving in the same direction and smaller stocks working it could all be maybe just a final culmination of this leg of the rally where we say let's buy the laggard and then you have some kind of an air pocket down the road and for now it's tough to find too much >> kate rooney and an interactive brokers and talk to me about those >> charles schwab we had this morning surprising to the upside and a pretty bright outlook from executives and that's what you've seen there and the stock lifting up 13% or so, and revenue was down 9% in the quarter and that was a lot better than expected and the net interest and interest expenses were the beat and the trend that had been weighing on schwab called cash sorting and that's when customers essentially move from lower yielding sweep accounts to higher yielding

options and that's moderated and executives also noted a deceleration of outflows and as schwab's ceo talked about on the earnings call on cnbc earlier, he talked about the fog covering up progress of a successful integration of td ameritrade and we've seen that lift in the stock today and the optimistic tone comes after a tough year for the discount broker and the street had concerns about the balance sheet and outflows at the silicon valley bank and earlier noting more investor optimism and exposure to stocks and that could bode well for interactive. >> kate rooney, thank you for that you just heard the sound of two-minute warning we had the dow at 2.64 and the dow was up better than 1% and there's the dow picture. mike, the rates, we talked about it at the half >> yeah. >> they keep cooperating and they're going in the right direction for the bulls. >> it's somewhat interesting to

see it play out over the course of a day we have some softish economic numbers in the morning and retail sales not great and at the headline level and yields back off and the stock market is as opposed to be more concerned about the economy. so right now, everything is sort of working in concert at this point. oil can't get out of its own way so all of the stuff is in a good spot it does seem as if it gets a little mechanical at thooed levels and if you look at the angle up in the morning with the russell 2000 it seems like people are trying to play the momentum and not be the last one in, and i think that's been working, but i'll keep point out, we were 600 points higher in january of last year the economy was lower and nothing weird for us getting back to those levels and the economy still hasn't buckled. >> i was also thinking a little

bit this morning when you saw the retailness and the market taking that as a positive. let's cool off let's cool down for a moment and assess where we are. we'll see you tomorrow all of you, as well. with green across the board and that's the way we'll go out today. i'll send it into overtime with morgan and jon [ closing bell ringing ] the rally continues. the s&p and nasdaq hitting their highest levels today since april of 2022. a fresh 52-week high for the transports and that's the scorecard of wall street and the action is just getting started and welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt and thanks to microsoft closing at eight a new high after pricing a.i. tools and strong earnings for bank of america, morgan stanley also helping this broad market rally. plus we are awaiting earnings from j.b. hunt and western alliance and we'll bring y