good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. ahead, he was one of the few strategist calling for a big market rally back at the beginning of the year. now he's saying that we may have hit a bit of a peak. how is he preparing. stifel's chief equity strategist barry bannister is with us >> home builder sentiment rises again in july, red fin's ceo glenn kelman with us this hour with a reality check on the real estate market. later, is the ev revolution just an american phenomenon. are americans just not into electric mark fields coming up. crossing the tape for us this morning, an upbeat surprise citigroup's economic surprise index hitting its highest level in two ears, indicating just

how good the economic data has been relative to consensus expectation. it's one thing that's fueling this rally, which continues to go on now. data up almost 1.5% on the s&p markets -- senior markets commentator, mike santoli joins us mike, i would just throw in the retail sentiment continues to show that investors are getting more enthusiastic on the retail side, the put/call ratio people are looking at what does all of this tell us? >> ill tells you that there's been a relatively, i would say, stubborn and persistent sense of caution, for most of this year, that has completely given way and people have embraced the upbeat case. that includes people believing that, you know, a softer land is basically the central premise of where we go from here, at least for the rest of the year, for the economy, and then the idea that earnings growth is troughing, or rather, year over year earnings declines are hitting their worst levels right now and they're going to increase i'm not that caught up in the labeling of a bull market, based on very rigid standards. but is the market acting like a

bull market? i would say "yes." multiples are expanding. that's what's happening in a bull market. you're seeing the market rotate as opposed to pull back broadly. it got overbought and stayed overbought you have retail participation coming in, as you mentioned. and then you also basically have this short and shallow pullback, as opposed to deep and scary ones now, all of that brings us to a point where you say, has there been enough already in the short-term and i think that's now the relevant conversation, because you are seeing a little bit of the frothiness, looks like a chase, a lot of short squeezes, a lot of running back to the old favorites. a lot of the blasted out stocks -- the meme stocks and also just the recent ipos of 2020 and 2021 are going vertical now it's a matter of, do we get a breather and is it anything worse than a breather if we get that pullback? >> a bit of a discussion this morning for those that have aggressive year-end targets, as to what sector needs to participate more to get them there. and i wonder if you do think

it's the banks >> you need banks not to act as a drag at minimum. i think that is true that it's one of the kind of the pistons that hasn't been firing, and you would want to see it happen. it doesn't really have a lot of sway over the overall index, but it does usually give a bit of a tail wind to smaller stocks. that's what we've seen, too, in terms of credit sensitive stuff. yep, i think you would look for it in an area like that. i think that the interesting thing about a market that's in one of these positions is, it usually finds a way higher without necessarily, you know -- you knowing in advance exactly what that's going to be. so so far, it hasn't been a zero-sum game. the hot glamour stocks of the nasdaq are still working, and some other stuff coming along behind it. >> indeed. we'll continue to get a bunch of bank results throughout the week mike, thanks talk in a bit. mike santoli our next guest was one of the first strategists to call for a rally back at the beginning of the year we may have seen the peak with the s&p flatlining around 4400,

although we're obviously above that in the second half of the year joining us now is stifel's chief economic strategist, barry bannister. great to have you on set i keep thinking, you were zigging when others were zagging. are you trying to do the same? >> the second quarter was really led by the big tech. but we think the third quarter is going to be led by more of what you call cyclical value this would be the banks, di diversified financials, industrials, basic materials, they should give you a nice outperformance pop in the third quarter as the economy holds on. >> why not more aggressive targets going into year end? >> i think by the end of the year, our model is showing that unemployment is going to perk up it's going to go up. and the fed is going to hold on to a high rate, longer than people expect. they have to ensure that inflation is down. they actually have to overshoot to the down side and so so if the fed holds on, real rates go up, price earnings multiples go down, i think we get back a few percent in the fourth quarter >> give us a picture of how you see unemployment printing in the back half?

>> i think it will be 4.0% by the end of the year. and that's enough to push you towards -- a little closer towards a recession fear and i think it will be 6% by the november 2024 election so when we look out into 2024, there are a lot of risks not being appreciated. we are almost flat year over year street sees it up $20 for the s&p 500 earnings and i think oil is a great big g geopolitical risk in 2024. russia has a lot of incentives to reduce production and drive the price back up. >> so, why would you buy cyclical stocks on the back of a spike in the unemployment rate and the fed remaining restrictive for a long time? >> that's a great question, sarah. the thing about what we're in, and it's a secular bear market in september 30th of 2021 when the s&p 500 peaked in a secular bear market, it's nothing but a series of short-term trades. buy and hold is as dead as a

doornail and it will be for probably ten years until about 2030 as a consequence, the second quarter dominated by big tech, fourth quarter could be a different story entirely so we're going to have to rotate around the board >> so the cyclical trade is a rental, so to speak? >> oh, everything's a rental in this kind of a market. if you look out to -- or look back to 2022, it was the stagflation trade. and that's not working now but there was a huge trade you made a lot of money in utilities and you made money in energy but they're not working now. so what works is a rental. and nothing less for long. >> i feel like there's this big debate shaping up over 2024 already. you're sounding kind of down bate two minutes ago, we heard from bruise van saun, the ceo of citizen financial, saying that he thinks banks will step up loans in 2024, that the conservatism is going to fade.

we're hearing all sorts of bullishness and green shoots in the investment banks, that we'll start to see deals in 2024 >> well, the economic surprise index beating by such a wide margin is because we lowered the bar so much. as the economy bumps up against resource constraints, as you get into 2024, inflation becomes a little bit more entrenched we actually think the core pce deflator will stay around 3% and the fed is saying 2%, which means i've got to get powell's fed from 3 -- from 2 to 3 and accept that on a longer-term basis. and that's going to be a heavy lift >> do you think they change the target formally or just -- >> it's hard to just do that on the sly. they're going to have to accept that inflation is higher than it used to be wages are incredible and what's called super core, core pce services ex-housing, that's been very sticky. and until labor weakens, it's not coming down. >> it has. but the market inflation expectations don't show signs that it's going to stick around for a long time. >> no, like the ten-year

break-even, five-year break-evens, no, they don't. and one of the things we've been saying, a characteristic of a secular bear market is the price-to-earnings multiple compresses over time, even if the earnings grow. you end up crossing and it's pretty much flat and so what we think is that over time, inflation expectations in the longer term are going to have to pick up we're in a structurally short labor market we're going to bump up against our resource constraints soon. >> so to the degree that corporates cut head count, is it under duress because their margins are pressured? is it because of productivity and ai >> ai is certainly going to be disruptive before it's additive to the economy the thing about wages is that wages are now exceeding the pricing power of the companies when the trade was the other way and your pricing power exceeded your wage cost, obviously, there's no need to layoff people but as soon as the wages remain sticky and the pricing power is diminished, you might see the uptick in layoffs towards year end. >> so it is -- we're sort of

entering the darker picture of a disinflationary world. >> inflation -- excuse me, a recession is largely unexpected, carl and last year we knew we wouldn't have a recession. we helicopter dropped $5.2 trillion into the economy. but if i look forward, it's not going to be expected the good news will become bad news as you approach year end into '24 >> we'll be touching base with you over the next five to six months eric, good to see you. thanks for coming in barry bannister. after the break, former ford ceo mark fields on the price cut for the electric f-150 and what to expect from tesla which reports after the bell some on wall street now asking if americans even want evs or whether the benefits are worth the price? we'll get to netflix as well tonight. benchmark sticking with its sell call, despite this recent rally ahead of earnings after the bell that analyst will join us in a bit as well. stayitus wh this is american infrastructure. megawatts of power,

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talking a lot of financials today on the back of results from goldman sachs. grabbing most of the attention on this miss on eps. it's the second quarter since solomon became ceo there's been a pickup. stock has turned around, now positive on the session. a lot of phrases like kitchen sink quarters and as mike mayo said, better late than never on some of these. >> a lot of what dragged them

down were issues that we know they've been dealing with. some of the legacy balance sheets, the green side deal. the commercial real estate losses they warned about it, they telegraphed it, another reason the stock could be up. and if you strip that up, the overall business is performing it's a weak environment for investment banking and now they're giving hope that that's coming back >> so taking it as a positive. let's turn now to a big week in the auto space you have tesla at a ten-month high with earnings after the bell ford this week cutting prices on this f-150 ev pickup truck and now new protections from allied financial, forecasting a 12% decline in used vehicle values in the second half of the year joining us now with his outlook is former ford ceo, mark fields! mark, it's good to have you. welcome! >> hi, sarah, good to have you >> how did you read the price cuts on the f-150 lightning? >> listen, i think they're taking a page a bit out of the playbook, which is they have the

best-selling electric pickup truck right now. they have new competition coming, whether it's the cyber truck or what they call the lifestyle pickup truck buyers. you've got the new chevrolet silverado electric truck coming a little later this year so i think they made the calculus, they said, listen, we have improved capacity, some lower input costs, we're going to pass some of that on to customers, because they'll want to stoke demand. and also because they're tripling production some time next month they're going up to 150,000 units from about 50 today. they really want to generate the demand and get those customers into the brand >> but they're not profitable, right? a lot of these evs still have negative ebitda margins. so does that make it worse if demand is not a problem, why are they cutting prices? >> the concern is that the automakers like ford and gm and et cetera, they may have to sacrifice profit margins to compete in the ev market,

despite, as you said, they have negative margins right now for the most part. in the same token, in the auto industry, it's all about scale you have to build up scale so you can work on cost reduction, get efficiencefficiencies, so i little bit -- the term, you know, kind of invest to reap the benefits later on. so they're going to want to drive up the production, learn those lessons learned to reduce the costs going forward and improve their profitability, and apply them to their next generation truck that's coming out in the next two years. this is an investment period for them, and when you're starting in a new market in this huge transition to evs, they've decided to -- that's part of the investment that they're making here >> although, mark, we've talked about obstacles to adoption in the past gas is down $1/gallon year on year there's ongoing charger anxiety and range anxiety. and there's even this notion that classic pickup owners are hesitant or reticent to make the

leap do any of those hold water with you that would suggest the adoption curve needs to be more shallow? >> well, you know, this is one where i've said before, i think the auto industry is ahead of the curve in terms of consumer preferences. they're coming out with a lot of ev products in the next 6 to 12 months the issue is when it's about early adopters, you know, folks that have, you know, three or four cars, you've seen some good adoption, now you're getting to mass adoption. carl, to your point, this is where people get down to brass tacks around what is it going to cost me versus an internal combustion engine, what is it going to cost me what's the convenience and the moment of truth for the industry is coming because you have with the price cuts with the f-150, the f-150 lightning in a pretty good sweet spot, and their starting price that people can afford versus internal combustion engines. and you have a new chevrolet equ

equinox, which supposedly is going to be priced in the $30,000 range. so when you take away the price issue, then it's really going to come down to, are people going to adopt this and live with the fact that it's, you know, harder to charge, takes more time, less convenient we're going to see that play out in the next 6 to 12 months and it could get very ugly >> speaking of auto margins, tesla out after the bell today and we haven't heard as much about price cutting there, but they did it a lot earlier this year has that been successful what do you expect to see tonight? >> well, sarah, as you know, musk said he was willing to trade higher volumes for lower profitability. and listen, that price cut strategy has been successful from the perspective of driving volumes. you know, they had record volumes in the second quarter. they still sell 6 out of 10 evs in the u.s the question everyone will be looking at in earnings is their gross margins. and not only the impact on their

margins today, but what does it mean for going forward and, you know, last quarter, their margins, their automotive gross margins were below 20%, which they said that was their water mark they'll be looking at that, and investors and consumer are going to want to hear news about, are they going to come out with a freshened model 3, where's the next generation model, and finally, what are the plans for shipping the new cyber truck that they just started producing. >> although some, mark, who say, you know, maybe braced for disappointments on any of those bucks always say -- they can always rely on comments about ai, and what full self-driving is going to get you in the longer term, and that remains the bull narrative >> i think, you know, carl, these days, if you have a company, all you have to do is put dotai at the end of it and your stock gets a bump in tesla's case, when you look at the stock run-up, and it's up almost 60% in the last quarter, you know, they posted strong

production and delivery numbers. they did the charging deals with the oems, the established oems to use their super charger stations the overall run-up in ai stocks, and for tesla in particular, you know, it's around this ai base kind of self-driving software that they've been touting. and i think that's a big piece of what's driving the valuation of tesla right now now they have to start delivering on. >> what do you think of the cyber truck? i had a debate with friends over dinner last night about whether people would buy it and how important that is to tesla's future >> well, you know, they're going to have limited volume of it, but sarah, in the auto industry, there's truck buyers that fall into two buckets one is the folks that really want the capabilities of the vehicle. you know, payload, towing, that kind of thing. functional then there's the other kind of buyer which we call the lifestyle buyer, which they're

buying the truck because it portrays them in the way they want to be portrayed i think this is going to be very attractive though those buyers and those that can afford it and when you look at the volume, which they really haven't talked about it, but it's probably going to be fairly limited, that will give them the opportunity to price it. and listen, at the end of the day, it's an incremental product for their brand. and it helps build their brand even more, and you know, they're the leader in ev s from a brand recognition standpoint and the cyber truck will help in all of those elements >> i feel like the lifestyle buyers will be into it it's cool. appreciate it. mark fields. coming up later this hour, the housing data continues to show a mixed picture starts did rertreat in june, permits down more than expected, but refis jumping. and sentiment has been rising. a real estate reality check with the ceo of redfin still ahead. plus, china demands remain

strong, but the stock is lower as the duch company is caught in the middle of the s.hiu./cna trade issues when it comes to semiconductors stay with us good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy?

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europan markets closing in just a moment. the ftse seeing the biggest gains in the uk. financial services and british property names are up the most over there, and those moves coming following a big story abroad today which is about that inflation read that we got out of the uk. 7.9% so falling below the 8% level and hitting its lowest level in more than a year, the prior number was 8.7% in may it did show a big drop and the first time in five months that the headline reading came in lower than expected. all psychologically important here

the pound and british gilt yields all fell on that number it reminds me of the days when we first started seeing some real moderation in our inflation numbers several months ago so there's several months behind us, but good to see it not still going up, coming in below expectations, and reviving hopes that the bank of england won't have to do quite as much there's still work to do and still way above target, obviously, and way above the u.s. and europe, but it's coming down >> but hasn't done anything to knock off the expectation of further hikes. >> no. markets still bets on further hikes. but maybe they don't have to do doubles, and they can do 25. >> which has been the call the last couple of weeks from the last couple of days. more americans are shifting their luxury spending to europe. robert frank's watching some of that trend robert, good to see you. >> good morning, carl. luxury stocks taking a hit this week on fears of a slowdown in u.s. spending. it all started monday as we talked about when rich month

reported that 4% decline in retail sales yet america's luxury losses may be europe's gains. analysts say wealth americans who are vacationing in europe this summer may be buying their luxury goods in paris, rome, and london, rather than the u.s. sales tax data showing that spending by americans nearly tripled in june. bernstein analyst luka soca saying that americans remain the highest spending nationality and the fastest growing spenders in europe, u.s. consumers led the rally and continued to show a strong appetite for both travel and luxury we actually saw a similar shift last summer when lvhm and b burberry reported big gains in europe, mainly from american tourists lvmh reported a 36% jump in the third quarter, compared to a 11% growth in the u.s. last year, the dollar was at parody with the dollar this year, the dollar is a bit

weaker, so we're not going to see as many bargains on those louis vuitton bags or hermes sandals with an "h" on them that everyone seems to love this summer >> speaking of, robert, i wanted to throw out caring, the luxury maker in europe after they ousted the gucci ceo, the guy who was responsible for the whole brand refresh and the resurgence of the gucci brand, which has fallen steal i was curious about your reaction, because now there's some excitement that he's out. >> yeah, there's some excitement and some hope that maybe they can turn that brand around remember, you know, tom ford famously turned that brand around a long time ago, and in the past few years, it's been a tough slog forhem. d that's been wehing on caring's results and their growth now i think that shareholders

yeah, huge part of that and that has been really left behind in the rally with lvm and hermes it's the cheapest ce in european luxury >> still waiting on asia pacific, too robert, thank you. let's get a news update with our pippa stevens. >> north korea has not commented on the status of the u.s. soldier who bolted across border yesterday, but we're learning new details of how it all went down a woman in the tour group says that private travis king made a break for the border as the tour was ending >> just a guy running what looked like full gas towards the north korean side. and my first thought was, what an absolute idiot. donald trump lost his bid for a new civil trial against writer e. jean carroll a federal judge rejected his request saying that the jury who found trump libel for sexually abusing and defaming carroll did not commit a serious miscarriage

of judge as trump claimed. the jury awarded carroll $5 million in damages and in new york, officers executed a search warrant yesterday at a home in a vegas suburb in connection with the investigation into tupac shakur's unsolved murder but the department would not provide any details about who owned the house or what led to the search tupac was gunned down in a drive-by shooting near the vegas strip in 1996. sarah, back to you >> pippa, thank you. up next, benchmark standing by its sell call on netflix, ahead of earrinings. and another downgrade of at any time, at&t. the stock is rebounding as the company responds to the journal's reporting on that alleged cable. you can read more about that on cnbc.com

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vmware up this morning as the uk competition board provisionally approves its deal to be acquired by broadcom the deal just needs approval from the u.s. and the ftc, which has been challenging, but stocks making a move higher >> m&a such a huge part of the conversation this morning. speaking of which, let's get post-to-post with bob pisani >> the s&p is up 7 out of the last 8 days. this is a very powerful rally, and is indeed, rallying out. and if you're a bull, the banks starting to participate. you're getting the earnings. they're not selling off, this is

very traditional to have them, but not anymore. these super regional banks, u.s. bankcorp., the highest level since march. the same with all the super regionals, key copper has been moving up, pnc has been moving up, no sell-off on the earnings reports. that's very, very bullish here not a lot of new highs i would have to say, fairly modest, frankly, given the powerful move up in the s&p 500. but we've got a small group of tech stocks. there's salesforce, a big help in the dow here. now high for that. meta's had a new high, netflix, adobe, service now, small groups of them, new highs, and that's encouraging to keep that going there's a small group of industrials that have been hitting new highs consistently every day. they're not today. and i don't quite know why here's eaton, this is a very typical example, new highs almost every single day. ingersoll rand, carrier, parker hanifen have been strong the steel stocks have been

strong, only fractionally to the downside finally, i want to point out, we're waiting for a big ipo to open the best thing that can happen to an ipo market is an up market, which is exactly what can happen we're waiting for oddity tech to open this is going to be on the snark. this is a consumer beauty company. 12.1 million, shares of 35 but this thing was up-sized rather dramatically. the prior price was just 10.5 million, at 32 to 34 so they're going to raise north of $400 million. now, this was just getting ready to go, as i was coming on the floor. and i don't think it's quite opened yet has it opened? i can't quite see that from here not yet, okay. we're waiting for it to open, but this will definitely open on the upside it's got an awful lot of momentum behind it sarah and carl, this is another sign that the ipo market is reopening again. you'll need strong market, up market, stable interest rates, so far, that's what we're getting. guys, back to you. >> bob, thanks a lot still to come this afternoon and tonight. a note catching our attention,

about netflix reporting after the bell keeps a sell on the name with an eye on future impact, the strikes across the industry. joining us this morning is benchmark analyst, matthew harrigan there's been so much expectation on the buy and the sell side the argument is that on the sell side, they've got an little overheated, would you agree? >> absolutely, this has t gone overheated i think the netflix is an advantageous position relative to the other studios given the sizable international production that has some appeal in the u.s. and a good backlog of shows. but i think this is behaving like it's a category killer tech stock. and i think that at heart, this is really a media stock that's subject to a number of issues with the set, you know, the industry i think the way to look at this in terms of the tam opportunities is really the overall tv market, which

continues to be challenged both on a subscription and an advertising side and we haven't been permabears on this. i had a buy on this a few years ago, when we really jacked up prices we had a sell going into the collapse last spring should have been more agile in upgrading this but i think at this level, it's fairly, you know, heinously overvalued relative to the underlying business. >> to the degree that a strike is one of these dynamics that could impact it, what do you say to those who were trying to thread out the idea that their production relative to peers is highly international they're able to monetize things that come out of, say, south korea, that it would create ways to keep them immune from a labor work stoppage. >> well, i think netflix is really to be lauded for taking international content into the u.s. and having a global hit like "squid games," but i don't think it's sufficient. people are not going to live on a diet of south korean dramas or german horror epics.

and really, i think a number of their near peers, e disruptive s on -- in the hopper for 2024 >> has netflix ever traded like a basic media stock? >> you could argue last spring, the market was certainly becoming more realistic and looking at, you know, the gap versus the peers right now, it's trading around 28 times ebitda, so it's really at a fairly crazy premium to when you look at a comcast or disney, you know, certainly. >> but it's not dependent on, i mean, not yet, on adds like they

are. and you know, the whole first mover advantage into streaming that everyone had to chase, that was the bull case. and then the further bull case is that they have -- that the market is bigger than everyone thought, because they're cracking down on password sharing. >> i think that the password sharing and entry into avon initiatives are absolutely vital at justifying the valuation. and we actually have that embedded in our forecast i actually have been adding more customers to consensus next year, around 2n. and they aree emphasis on avod, which is how you're achieving a lot of the subscriber growth, to complement the crack down on password sharing so they're going to remain a leader, this is a great company, phenomenal execution but i still think years ago, this really was more of a tech company. they had a really decided advantage in the quality of experience relative to their peers. i think much more programming. and clearly, you know, i think

this is probably kind of an 80/20 company at this point. everyone else can pretty much do the same thing that they're doing on the streaming side. it shouldn't really matter of content creation, what you have to back that up. >> whether it's streaming or evs, a lot of the sand box is getting shared a lot more than in prior years matthew, we'll see what happens tonight. thanks ceo of red finn is coming up on the other side of this break. average weekly mortgage rates sitting near their highest level since november of 2022 hold up longer can the market hold up with another potential rate hike around the corner. we're back in two minutes to talk housing

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call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. quick check on constellation brands themaker of corona beer says it will share more information with activist eliot as part of a new agreement. eliot expressing some confidence in the management teams, saying they look forward to helping unlock the full growth potential of the brand shares. and it just brings to mind, as cramer mentioned this morning, how many moving pieces there are, especially in the beer category right now >> with nutella taking the top spot from bud light as the fallout continues. june housing start and building permits out this morning, both missed expectations actually have shown a decline following strong pay numbers this comes as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate nears 7% again, but our next guest knows that competition is still fierce

data from redfin showing just 1% of homes changed hands this year that's the lowest share in nearly a decade. joining us now, redfin ceo, glenn kelman, always good to talk to you, glenn welcome! >> hi, good to be here >> it's very confusing, what's happening in the market, it feels like things are warming up, but starts and permits were a miss >> well, demand is low, but inventory is even lower. so if you look at the home builder index of confidence, it's up a couple of points it's the seventh straight month of gains, so the builders are sitting pretty, because no one else wants to sell their home. no one else wants to give up a 3% mortgage. >> how long do you see that problem persisting as long as rates stay high >> yes, although there's some relief in sight, just because about a third of the market, 37.5% have adjustable rate mortgages, so those are going to reset in the next couple of years. you're going to start to see people move. there's also just a demographic

bump that many millennials still want to buy a home i think they're frustrated by the supreme court decision on student loan repayments, but they've still got to find a place to live. >> diana olick noted that you guys recently reported that bidding wars are back, which does seem a little crazy, because how can people afford to do bidding wars and pay over ask when mortgage rates are so high? >> again, it comes back to really low inventory this is the second straight month that the list price has been lower than the actual selling price. so i think it's 100.1%, the final price higher than the list price, which is just really unusual when you're in a market with rates near 7% we've noticed that buyers are really rate sensitive, even when rates come down ten basis points, we get more demand on our website, and more people touring homes, making offers on a sunday night >> but are they using all cash when it comes to these prices over ask >> there's a higher proportion

of people using cash than before, but many people are still borrowing. i think we're just at this bottom level of the housing market, you're usually between 4 to 6 million units selling, and now we're at 4.2 million units there's very little demand, but even less inventory. so that's created a real crunch. the problem for us, obviously, is sales volume. but for buyers, thery're still trying to find a place to live, and it's hard to do, because there's so few homes for sale. >> meantime, glenn the wave of migration that we saw during the pandemic and the effect on cities like austin and the southeast, i just wonder if you're seeing some reversion to the mean on that front, whether that's in rental prices, for example, or even just migration numbers outright >> rental prices are taking a step back, but very slowly we have seen just incredibly strong demand for arizona and florida. i know it's been over 110 degrees there for a month.

florida's got all sorts of climate-related concerns, especially since insurers are leaving the market, but that's where people want to live. much of this is just fleeing to lower-tax places that is a long-term trend that isn't going to stop. >> so what's going to happen with pricing overall, rentals and sales, which we know the fed is paying very close attention to and makes up such a big part of cpi >> it's the tale of two markets. on the purchase side, i don't think price will come down much. we expect vacations are up, builders have been very busy creating new apartment buildings that property management companies have to fill it's been a real challenge for them, because household formation isn't happening the way it used to more people are living in mom's basement >> so is it changing but you mentioned that the demographics are changing. that there's going to be demand from younger buyers. >> yeah, well, i think eventually these baby boomers

will give up the ghost, sell their homes and downsize and the millennials will take their place. that process is just much slower if you look at a portion of what's owned by millennials, at this point in their lives versus where it was for my generation versus where it was for the baby boomers, millennials just not getting into the game because of student loan debt, because the ladder just came up onhousing market at the worst possible time, as rates got very high as they came of home buying age >> it's really interesting, all the cross currents happening ro right now. the fed can't control everything >> they try. >> glenn, thank you! >> control egg prices and the birthrate in this country. >> that's a lot. >> that's a big job for the committee. after the break, carvana surging this morning on the back of that debt restructuring deal, we'll look at that meal and the other -clele f dd soald ftorea stocks that investors are piling back into. don't go anywhere.

shares of carvana will get your attention soaring after striking a deal to reduce its outstanding debt by more than $1.2 billion, part of a surge in unprofitable businesses that have been rebounding recently. deirdre bosa digs into that in "tech check. there are signs of new life this year. the pandemic high flyers some have left for dead, a class that

includes robinhood, coin base, peloton, carvana, different business models but all characterized by week financials and high valuations. the southwest far more steady purple line up with the tech bear mrashgt market many of them have been staging a comeback this year if you take a shorter term chart, carvana have jumped tenfold. coin base tripled on regulatory optimism open door is up more than 250% this year on signs of a housing market recovery. we can always go back to the fundamentals and not much has changed. the companies are still unprofitable in the case of carvana and coin base, revenue is falling today's carvana news relieves the cash crisis it also dilutes investors and raises interest

expense in the metric that carvana has been pitching to investors, using more and more, gross profit per unit. it feels like a throwback to the adjusted ebitda days it's all feeling very 2021 again. i know you saw "the journal" article that says the market looks a lot like 2021 right before stocks entered a deep slump. that's the question many are asking does it play out the same way it did a few years ago? >> it does jib with their enthusiasm and getting more bullish than they have been. i'm wondering the difference between now and then and the private market was on fire at that time and since then has had a bit of a correction. do you see that kind of animal spirit there, too?

>> what we're seeing now is what many call a vc winter, fund-raising, really just freeze up a lot of startups having more trouble finding that money a few years ago you just had to hold out your hand the vcs were all fig with each other to get into the deals. the exception, which i know i talk about a lot is the generative ai space. you're seeing $100 million series a rounds which is very bubblish territory certainly the air has come out of that bubble significantly it's amazing what you're seeing in public markets. you have to wonder if you're going to see the private markets follow >> we keep talking about green shoots, hearing about it from certain financials regarding m&as and ipos. the discussion about exiting is getting more traction in the

valley where you are >> a little bit. i call them unicorn dinosaurs because they've been private for so long. talking about stripe and instacart and reddit that maybe missed the window a few years ago. instacart filed confidentially and there was this thinking it would have to go in the next year or so and the public markets created an argument for that but the business model, it's not the really splashy, sexy generative ai this is gig economy which still is unprofitable. to what extent i'm not hearing that there's any rush to get the companies out. we know soft bank wants to get that one out and it does play into the hype cycle. >> deirdre, thank you. deirdre bosa wall street is buzzing about lina khan and the ftc. a lot of news to get to including new regulations that the government has put up. we'll tackle that when we come

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outlining new rules to evaluate mergeers in a changing digital economy. they include assessing the impact of a deal on competition for workers and looking into how a series of acquisitions could affect the market. ftc chair lina khan joined us last hour to discuss some of these changes. here is what she said. >> we consider every matter on a case-by-case basis our obligation is to preserve competition and make sure that mergers are not unlawfully lessening competition. if parties are putting before us remedies or potential packages that they claim would do that, we look at that very closely but at the end of the day our job is to protect the public, and we need to make sure the public is not bearing the risk of a failed remedy updapted guidelines come, of course, as microsoft and activision extend their deal deadline and the court battle to block that deal.

she was somewhat defensive but trying to lay out why she thinks the rules are stale and need to change the republicans and the business xunt will push back. >> looking at your track record not just a specific deal reminiscent of the hearing she got in front of the house just a few days ago. >> four hours of grilling on that one meantime, the rally rolls on mike santoli has come bearing gifts. because we're now above 35,000 on the dow >> you've had this at my desk for about 15 months or so. >> are you sure you want to do this >> we cracked above 35,000 i think it got there late 2021, a few months above 35,000. i think you did put it on. >> i did put it on, and then what happened to the market? >> we didn't have too long before the market went south. >> should i put it on or not >> i'm not going to claim there was any causation. >> i don't want to jinx anything. >> what if we get russell 2000 >> that was always a big barrier out there. clearly 48 on the s&p is the one

everybody is watching. we're within 5% to 7%. >> how many days after i put on the hat did the market fall? >> it wasn't days. i think it was a couple months it was a couple of months. >> we miss our cashin. he would put it on to post 9 and the judge. carl, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour the march to new highs and whether the investment committee thinks we can get there or not. stocks are on the move today sitting at about 5% now away from a new milestone joining me for the hour everybody is here at post 9. joe terranova, jenny harrington, jim lebenthal, brian belsky, chief investment strategist. we're green across the board, as i said the dow above 35,000 almost half of a percent, the nasdaq having a good day as well new