tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC July 20, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we begin with the market rally rolling on the dow notching the largest win streak in years. futures searching for direction this morning. there are pot holes to navigate the chipmaker cutting outlook and posting a profit plunge. plus, we have shares of netflix taking a hit on mixed results as it sees progress on the ad tier and password crackdown initiatives. shares of tesla under pressure this morning as the ev price wars started takes a bite
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out of the margins. and china out with a fresh warning over retaliation over washington's ongoing restrictions on chips. it is thursday, july 20th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. thank you for starting the day with us. the mixed picture with the s&p down fractionally. dow jones industrial average up fraction fractionally the nasdaq is up slightly on the results of tesla and netflix all three indices marching higher the dow and s&p and nasdaq are all trading at highest levels since april of last year the bond market with the yields. we start with the 10-year
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treasury 3.78 10-basis point range with the softer cpi report. a similar story with the long end of the curve with the 30-year. range bound. the movement in the 2-year treasury since the cpi report, it has risen 20 basis points. we are looking at energy oil to look to keep the three-week win streak alive. wti up at $75.40 a barrel. brent crude up .50%. $79.79 natural gas up 2%. the commodities this morning with wheat prices. wheat prices up this morning after the russian strike on the ukrainian grain port after the exit of the deal to allow the grains export of
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we will have more coming up in the show. we have a busy morning for earnings and stock reaction. u.s. shares of taiwan semiconductor hit hard on the back of the second quarter results as they see profits plunge shares of taiwan semi are down 2% arabile gumede is live with us in the london newsroom with more on the result. arabile, good morning. >> good morning, frank that fall has not been prestigious if you look at the trading picture. down .30%. the other semiconductors hitting hit more than 3% for asml. tsmc falling 23% on the annual basis and 12% on the quarter by quarter to $5.85 billion that is above expectations and does come amid falling demand for chips. slowing consumer demand and
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struggling on the back of that with the demand no longer continuing to play into the market as it had particularly during covid-19. that is showing a lot more demand coming in for the a.i. chips. the rest of the chip market is going down frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. we will turn attention to the other top stock story. shares under pressure this morning of netflix on the back of the quarterly earnings results. topping expectations, but revenue missed the mark. sub describescribers blowing pa estimates. something greg peters discussed on the earnings call >> thebusiness impacts of that product experience will roll over several quarters. it is not an overnight things because they are applied gradually and because some
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borrowers with w-- will not sign up immediately for an account, but maybe three months down the line. >> let's stay in london with arjun kharpal with more on the netflix results. arjun. >> good morning, tank. we have seen massive rallies in netflix and other tech stocks. expectations were high and mild disappointment would be enough to get the stocks moving lower that is what we got. a good quarter they offered the one-two punch of crackingdown on password sharing and introducing an ad tier model as well that resulted in subscriber adds in the second quarter. 5.9million ads they are expecting more in subscriber ads in the third quarter as well. greg peters said the company has a big runway to get people off
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password sharing and convert them into paying users that will not happen overnight, but it will happen over the coming quarters with netflix expecting a revenue acceleration in the fourth quarter. it is something that will happen slowly they feel they have this coming. the issue is and why you saw the after hours trade dip is the costar revenue figure of $8.91 million. the runup-up in stock and any disappointment would drop the stock. frank frank. >> tesla shares down following the quarterly results and it seems to be about far ma-- about margins and production. >> that is right 130% rally all in all, quarterly revenue and record deliveries for tesla.
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earnings per share were a beat at 91 cents per share as well. even the margin was better than expected with the gross margin of 18.5% higher than the market was expecting. the investors are happy with the strategy from tesla. cut prices and gain share at the expense of margin. as it continues over the coming quarters, it will realize when the margins ramp back up this is a market share gain tme for tesla. the company signaling in the third quarter, they will likely see slower production with shutdowns and factories as they look to upgrade those and then secondly with the cyber truck. it has been a long time since tesla released a new product and it is having production issues at the moment. it will be next year until the high volume production will come that is where the disappointment came from with the after hours
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dip. >> chaarjun kharpal live in the london newsroom. thank you. turning back to the markets and investors are bullish as the markets grind higher results from june showing investors expecting 5.5% returns in the next year that is up from april and the highest reading from the 6% forecast in december of 2021 which was a month before the s&p hit a record high. for more, let's bring in skyler montgomery who is the senior global macro strategist. >> thank you for having me. >> it seems every day it is more bullish sentiment coming out do you believe the vanguard sentiment with the 5.5% return over the next 12 months? >> it is really hard we're caught between two contradicting forces on one side, we have
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disinflation and economic surprises which are positive, but the central bank and worry of recession we have seen equities be strong and that is justified because it is policy path dependent in 2022, equities went down with massive tightening from central banks. now in anticipation of hiking ending before we h get cuts. that means we are past peak tightening of the cycle. yes, we had a drift up in expectations they largely have been around that range for the past ten minutes. you have other positives as well with dollar weakness or a range-bound dollar it is quite hard right now. >> a lot of people pointing to the dollar weakness. down 2.5% in july alone. de despite the soft futures, the market is on a remarkable run.
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for your clients, how are you advising them? is now the time to re-balance portfolios or take money off the table? you mentioned the fed decision and central bank decisions are n the u.s. at least one according to consensus. >> right now, we're in the really tricky scenario where the market is telling you that everything is okay in terms of if you look at economic surprises and positive disinflation is a tailwind for risk assets. there is a risk because investors do into 2023 under exposed. >> skylar, are you taking money off the table or putting more in treasuries >> we have a cautious stance where we are mildly overweight on equities. recession is pushed out by the fact that the economy is more resilient to higher rates than
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we thought you know, we tweaked our exposure within regions and shifting away from the u.s. and more to europe with the under investment in 2023, you have a risk of a move up wards. >> rising commodities prices specifically wheat is something we will talk about late nr in te show does that change your thinking with equities? >> i don't think so. if you look at soft landing and hard landing, et cetera. they are feeding off what is happening in china in terms of rebound we have seen which hasn't been as good as most markets expected so, you know, that is feeding into that. you are seeing issues in russia and ukraine come to the floor. that is not necessary or as impactful in equities. >> skylar montgomery koning,
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thank you very much. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. shares of united airlines taking off on the back of quarterly results as the company shakes off a wave of service turbulence. shares of zion bank takeoff as we dig into the health of the sector. and talks with u.p.s. and workers and the impact it is having on the transport sector we wilbrthl eak at down. we have a very busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." taking a look at u.s. semiconductor companies on the back of the taiwan semi results. nvidia and amd down 1% in addition to intel and qualcomm least impacted. we will have more on the chips sector later in the show. time for the check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning shares of united airlines. shares flying high after its q2 earnings and revenue topped expectations despite flight disruption at the new jersey hub. airline projecting a strong third quarter due to unrelenting travel boom led by return of international travel china's envoy to washington
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says his country does not want a trade or tech war with the u.s., but will retaliate if the biden administration imposes more curbs on the chips sector. speaking at the conference, the envoy says the way to competition is defined by washington is not fair a house panel on china is looking to crackdown on u.s. venture capital firms on u.s. a.i. the house commuparty said some companies receiving money have been linked to profiling and tracking of the uyghurs minority in china frank. >> the crackdown that could be coming there >> a lot there >> silvana, see you later on shares of regional banks have been on the rise this week
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with the kre up more than 9% m & t and citizens financial are meeting or beating profit forecasts in the second quarter as higher interest rates allow them to charge more for loans. zions says redoesdeposits rebou after the silicon valley bank collapse zions is releasing more with christopher from kbw >> good morning, frank. >> a number of banks beating expectations admittedly lower in expe expectations deposit levels are something to watch with people concerned about the regionals. arestabilize >> we are not four months
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removed from the silicon valley bank collapse and we hhave stab stabilized in terms of the quarter, we are seeing expectations brought down into the quarter and the bar has been lowered banks are jumping over a low bar. that is part of the rally this week. >> i want to go back to rising rates. that caused trouble for regionals with the bond holdings is that an issue for the balance sheet? are you surprised to see m&t with the tailwind with the boost in rates >> higher rates means wider margins. that is only to a point. given the pace the fed moved in the last year, at some point, the liability has caught up. you are seeing margins peak and roll over. that is what we are seeing into the quarter. that is what we see with the back half of the year. loan growth remains decent
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revenue peaked, but not as bad as fear edfeared. >> you mentioned sentiment a moment ago are you concerned about solvency or are they trading on the fundamentals >> we are. last quarter, it was all about the balance sheet. we wanted to see the level of deposits and capital levels. this quarter, those factors still matter it is about the earnings outlook and r.o.e. analysts and investors look at stocks on the future earnings of the company. we are beginning to look more on the fundamentals fundamentals are okay. relative to where expectations and valuations are, we are moving off the bottom. >> you don't sound bullish on the regional banks yet do you have a top pick in the
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space? >> we are neutral on the group we went to a neutral stance last december the call was peak earnings we had expectation that earnings were going to decline this year. not as much as they have, but certainly in the peak narrative. in the group, i would barbell it for you. higher risk higher reward for you with western alliance. stock was up 8%. that stock is trading at tangible book. two companies that report this morning, east/west bank and webster bank, these ar earners. the balance sheets are in great shape. >> christopher mcgratty, thank you. >> thank you coming up on "worldwide exchange," we will stay on the earnings beat as ibm takes a hit
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u.p.s. and the teamsters agreed to meet next week to resume negotiations ove benefits in the meantime, third party shipping services have moved double digits on concerns of disruption last night, we shift to yellow corp a potential strike which is a violation of the cba the union issued a strike warning because the union said yellow corp did not pay $50 million. it is important to note this stock is under the $500 million market cap we normally would not cover yellow it is important because yellow moves $500 million of freight annually fedex with a similar trucking
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operation is looking to benefit. fedex vadvising customers to secure now we'll cover this story more here on "worldwide exchange." time for the check of the other headlines outside of business with frances rivera in new york >> good morning, frank president biden on wednesday approved a disaster declaration for oklahoma after the state was pounded by storms and tornadoes in june. there is still no relief as tornadoes wrecked aftehavoc acrs the country. damaging the pfizer plant in rocky mount. no serious injuries were reported, but the damage to the facility could result in long-term medication shortages. and we are learning more about the u.s. soldier who, while serving in south korea, crossed the border in north
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korea. travis king had run-ins with the law. he was accused of punching a man in the nightclub and an altercation with a police officer. the white house says they are working to learn where king is being held and more about his condition. and the results are in for the $1 billion powerball prize one lucky winner with the golden ticket in the golden state of california the drawing is the third largest jackpot in history five other winners in the new york and new jersey area there are still millions >> i was told to plan the whole thing out and then disappear sdp >> and come up with the lambo and everything else. >> we know what you would buy. i don't know if i could fit in a
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lambo. frances rivera, thank you. as we head to break, look at shares of carvana. the stock jumped 40% yesterday after it reached a debt restructuring agreement. shares up 50% week to date speaking to jim cramer on "mad money," the ceo struck an optimistic tone on the months ahead. >> we benefit this quarter from a couple of things that broke our way. there were huge gains that were sustainable and will continue. before golthing seemed to w. i was exercising for over an hour every day. it was really discouraging. but golo's so easy, the weight just falls off.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange. shares of netflix hit hard in the opening quarter as it crack cracks down on passwords. and tesla getting squeezed by the pricing war those are dragging prices lower as investors gear up for results. it is thursday, july 20th and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. thank you for starting your day with us. let's pick up with stock futures. a mixed picture right now. you see the s&p down
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fractionally dow up fractionally. nasdaq following on the tesla and netflix which is down 1% we want to check on shares of apple after the fresh record high in the session yesterday. the tech giant touching $193.23 a share following the report it was working on a.i. tools to challenge open a.i. and google and others news that could move the stock the stock right now is do dodown .75 in the pre-market. time for the big stock stories. netflix getting hit hard ahead of the open after the giant posted a second quarter beat on the estimates with subscriptions rising 8%. greg peters, the ceo, says the crackdown on password sharing is key and he expect the ad tier to be a driver going forward.
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>> we have a lot of work to focus the business on scale. we know reach is a consideration that advertisers have where they go to spend dollars. we want to be in the top list. we are 100% quarter to quarter with good growth and trajectory. >> joining me now to discuss is jason bazda. >> thank you for having me >> what do you make of the call? is that expected to be a long-term tailwind for for this quarter? >> remember, there are two narratives at the same time. you have the ad tier and the password crackdown the bulls want to paint both as a positive we saw the subs doing really well the disappointment was the arp
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the password crackdown is not going to add value the consumers with the standard plan with two streams or four streams will spend down to something cheaper. you get more subs, but lower arp. this is what the buy side and consensus was mishmodelling. that caused the revenue miss the street needs to recalibrate the numbers. i think, over time, it will be positive >> arpo is average revenue per user and sub is subscriptions. >> thank you >> the general consensus is less impacted how do you think that impacts investor view on died guidance
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>> they are less impacted. a lot of production happens outside of the united states no one is immune if we get the strike resolved, let's say, before the end of the year, everything will be fine. if we drag into 2024, that will be a big issue for everyone in h hollywood. >> a lot of people believe sports gives you some protection from the impact of the hollywood strikes and possibly lagging on into next year are we seeing other developments with netflix live streaming or another push in sports? they have racing and other things what other developments are we expecting from the company >> i would be shocked if they do anything in live sports. you know, i think they have enough runway and momentum where they in the core scripted video business >> what about valuation? a lot of people talking about valuation with cap stocks? what do you think of the valuation of the name and how
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does it impact the long-term out look with two rate hikes coming up >> i think the valuation is actually not stretched you know, with the bears, they would say it is expensive on the p.e. multiple. the company is growing single digit into double digit. the real thing is the free cash flow as you move out we have a $500 target. >> $500 target is upside from where we are now whatratrating >> we are buy rated. we took a second reset down. we have been animated about it since on the password sharing crackdown. >> jason bazinet thank you for your time. >> absolutely. >> we will stick with earnings tesla with the lower margins thanks to price cuts and
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ince incentives tesla delivered more than 465,000 vehicles in the second quarter and produced more than 480,000. those were higher than the wall street expectations primarily driven by incentives and discounts. those remain a sticking point for elon musk who with doubled n on the call to shareholders. >> if interest rates continue to rise, that reduces the affordability of cars and for a lot of people who are barely breaking even. >> let's get a check on the that's results with george gianrikis. >> good morning. >> we played that clip from elon musk people are talking about production specifically in q3, but full
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year after the strong start to the year, did not rise guidance from 1.8 million. is that the only thing weighing on the stock >> what we saw last night was emblematic of the company to create long-term durable growth. first, they cut prices which you talked about and with those units over time, they hope to penetrate software to create margin upside over time. they are spending a lot in op-x. they doing that to beef up the infrastructure to enhance that offering or may sell more fsd software to other oems >> i want to jump in full self driving. >> yes sorry. full self driving software for its over vehicles and potentially to other oems.
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they are investing with cells and investing in robotics. the tesla bot could create long-term durable growth this is a company that, despite erratic macroeconomics environment, is putting the pedal to the metal and investing in projects that create growth long term. >> elon musk highlighted they want to retool facilities to get ready for the second half of the year that may slowdown production let's talk about margin. that's has been engaged in a price war. do you believe this may be the bottom with the margin story >> so that's one of the issues in yesterday's call. the company would not commit noncommittal in bottoming of margins. we think we are there. whether it is this quarter or next quarter they broke the margin guidance they are in the 17% range right now. that is probably why they don't
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want to commit to this being a bottom if you look at q4 and into 2024, we have the cyber truck ramping and additional volume. 4680 cells we feel the level represents the bottom process. >> i'll ask a complicated question is tesla possibly under valued i heard people talk aboing abouh a.i. play. that is a.i. >> correct we call tesla the a.i. sustainability behemoth. if you look at that relative to other large cap tech stocks, it is relatively under valued it is dis growing faster from te revenue and earnings perspective. all of this stuff we talked about is creating long-term sustainable growth we think it is under valued.
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>> george, give us your price target >> 230 we think the multiple which is 20 times earnings is conservative particularly with the fact this group of large cap tech stocks is trading a 26 times. you look at the growth, it is three times higher we think this is a relatively under valued stock. >> george, thank you for your time time for the check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> i'm back. ibm shares dipping ahead of the open after the better than expected quarter two earnings and expanded the margin. it missed estimates are revenue. the cfo stated they are looking
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to a profitable mix of products with software being the fastest growing division and initiatives with nearly 4,000 job cuts in january. elliott management takes a stake in catalent and pushing for a shakeup on the board shares of catalent surging on the news the wall street journal says elliott has been talking to the slate of nominees to run a proxy contest. the size of the elliott stake is unknown. and the fed is launching an instant payment service by allowing americans to send and receive funds in seconds the fed now service will seek to eliminate the several day lag it takes cash transfers to take effect bringing theu.s. in lin
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with countries like the uk, india, brazil and the eu, frank. >> that is interesting it is interesting that the technology in the u.s. with this lags other parts of the world sdpworld. >> yes >> silvana, thank you very much. coming up on "worldwide exchange," wheat prices jump p on the decision to scrap the grain deal with ukraine. we will have details in a moment. first as we head to break, top trending stories amazon will eventually ditch packages in plastic padded bags in favor of recycling alternatives to cut down on west. starting this week -- waste. starting this week, one of the amc theaters will screen "oppenheimer" in 70 millimeters. it makes up the three-hour
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blockbuster. the average work meeting are getting an upgrade microsoft revealing an a.i. beauty filter similar to those on snapchat and tiktok with a maybellene beauty launch we'll be back after this break to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. (man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? (woman) what if all i do isn't enough? new world ideas. or what if i can do diabetes differently?
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "morning call sheet. morgan stanley up grading ab-inbev the first half results is the likely time to kwauquantify theo in shares. take a look at shares up almost 1% in pre-market rbc is downgrading carvana to under performance. the restructuring and access to capital is a positive for the stock. rbc is basing the call on the fundamentals stocks shares up 1.5%. and deutsche bank is lowering avis to hold it cites the rally and upside is well balanced.
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looking at shares of avis. flat in the pre-market time for the "global briefing." wheat prices up 12% following the strike on the ukraine ports after the pullout of the deal. the chip sector with the taiwan semiconductors topped expectations, but profit dropped as demand continues to slump the spending for this year is the lower end of the estimate and sales falling 10% in 2023. shares of u.s. semi makers taking a hit on the news tiktok is opening up the research software to europe looking to police online content. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today and our next guest says beware of the so-called magnificent seven.
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live shots from around the world. we are starting off in london with a taylor swift ticket concern. we will talk about that sooner or later hong kong and new york and washington, d.c. time for the "wex wrap up. united airlines topped expect taex expectations and the return of international travel shares of las vegas sands says renovation derisruption in
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singapore bringing the shares lower in pre-market. and the discover financialial sk on the buyback pause after the profit miss. china's envoy to the u.s. says he doesn't want a trade or tech war with the u.s., but will retaliate if the biden administration imposes more curbing on sanctions and the house panel sends letters to venture capital firms to china and elon musk says he will spend more on building a super computer known as project dojo it will improve the autonomous driving abilities. we are gearing up for the trading day ahead with results from johnson & johnson and travelers and american airlines and dr horton and train company csx. the jobless claims are out at
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8:30 and the philly fed speech the markets are coming off a positive session with the dow in the longest winning streak in years. futures signaling it could be a dru struggle the to get out of the gate today we have courtney garcia who is our cnbc contributor >> thanks for having me, frank. >> we are seeing soft futures on the back of the tesla and netflix results. do confidence in the rally? >> no, i'm not worried about that i think what you are seeing is the big tech names which are the ones disappointing it is because the bar is set high and people excited about the earnings that has been priced in already. i don't see that as a concern for the overall markets.
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that has been the story this time which is the tech companies leading the rally upwards. you are starting to see the rally broaden out which is more indicative of the sign the momentum can continue rather than seven stocks driving up the market if the recseven stocks lag, i wl not be bothered by it. >> how do you see the upcoming trading day ahead? what is the word of the day here >> my word of the day is eu p p -- euphoria we went from fomo or fear of missing out to optimism to euphoria we have climbed higher despite the negativity we think it has momentum to run
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here a lot of the markets are not back to the all-time highs there is room to run here. it is not too late to get in the market, but stay invested. >> one thing we are looking at is bank earnings are you looking at the bank earnings is it giving you insight into the economy and markets? >> it is the biggest thing is it gives insight to the consumer. based on the balance sheets, the banks continue to remain healthy. consumer spending is 70% of gdpf. gdp. if the consumer spends, that is good for the economy to put it in perspective, $3 trillion saved during the pandemic it is expected it is down to $500 trillion.
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they are continuing to spend i feel that is a positive sign going forward. >> you said if consumers continue to spend. the fed objective is the slowdown in spending and while people continue to spend, the consensus is they are stretched. how long do you think that can continue to power the market >> we fled infneed inflation toe down that is what the fed is trying to do. one way to do that is get consumers to spend less. if it columbus down and we get through the period where consumers spend, that is what the soft-landing scenario could be that could be lining up. you are starting to see inflation coming down. 6 6.1% lower than 12 months ago. this is a significant drop here. that's the bigger key which is inflation. >> i want to jump in and get your picks for the day what would you put money into today and why?
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>> the biggest one is international. you see the dollar weakening here and especially when you look at europe you are starting to see optimism that inflation may come down there faster than previously expected you might have a good opportunity to look at that area >> any specific area of the international market >> i would go with the broad index if you are investing there. we can look at certain specifics. some etfs are the way to go. >> courtney garcia, we know you are expecting. we hope to see you an again af -- again after the baby >> thank you, frank. a mixed picture all morning long the nasdaq hitting the lows of the morning. s&p and dow fractionally higher. we see pressure on u.s. chip makers now down 1% across the board that is it for us on "worldwide exchange." we have "squawk box" coming up
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good morning make it eight in a row dow having the best winning streak since 2019 and now back over 35,000. right now, futures are mixed ahd of the opening bell. netflix and tesla putting stress on the sector. a look at the consumer johnson & johnson is set to report we dig through the quarter with the company's cfo. he is woke
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he's joe woke. thursday, july 20th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin you will see a mixed picture dow up 43 points you have the s&p off and nasdaq down a bit because of netflix and tesla. the dow at this point is on an eight-session winning streak thlo
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