sachs, right >> it's mine >> it's my goldman sachs i think just as a portfolio manager, watching how it's trading, not a great quarter, i think it works from here >> jim >> there's still time to play economic strength here >> "the exchange" is now, everybody. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. one of the best real-time indicators of the economy just surprised everyone, and it's complicating the outlook for the fed and investors. we'll tell you what it is and where the market has opportunity because of it. tesla and netflix, we have the trades from here with one highly potential downside of 80% and the other a 20% rally. not going to tell you which is which. stick around the analyst behind those calls are here to make their case.

gray hair, no hair a recurring theme on this show has been the booming elder economy. today, we'll speak with a group of seniors blowing up tiktok, and the skin care company partnering with them boomers do have all the cash kelly, the markets overall are mixed as you can see, but it's about the tech weakness. kelly mentioned the netflix and tesla trade. nasdaq, down 218 points. 14,139 on the other end of the spectrum, some value oriented names, up three quarters of 1% the dow, 261 points to the upside, 35,323 that broader market view of the s&p 500, pulling back a little bit here 4547 is your last trade, down 18 points it hs been a down day overall.

the highs of the session, we were down one in the s&p so tilting towards the lower end of that trading range. another place besides netflix and tesla seeing some downside is weakness in the red hot secteconductor industry. -- semikconductor industry it's pulled down from a record high the catalyst today was a better than expected earnings report from taiwan semiconductor, the biggest maker out there. but it's the current quarter that came in lighter than expectations that's dragging many of those stocks down. way big upside moves over the last year or so, keep that in mind for the semiconductor stocks if you are looking at stocks of the day so far, check out some of the nmovingies we are seeing the home builders.

i'm going to replace these each of these stocks, housing related, hit record highs earlier in the session and then lost momentum going down through there again, a red-hot sector. but dr horton came out with a good forecast. sales of new homes jumped 37% from the same time last year so kelly, another red-hot sector in housing that saw a nice move higher earlier, tied to dr horton looks like folks are trying to take profits off the table i'll send it back to you >> dom, thank you very much. now to one of the most surprising economic developments of the day we learned this morning that new claims for jobless benefits dropped much more than expected last week to just 228,000. in other words, the pace of layoffs has slowed at the very time it was widely expected to pick up. claims had spiked to 265,000 in june, a clear warning sign for the labor market and economy

but now they're reversing low, making it less likely we will tip into recession my next guest is long bond joining me is alex morris, welcome, alex. good to have you back. >> thanks for having me. >> you also own nvidia, so it's not like you're sleeping with the light on, but i did see the ten-year, it got back to the mid 3.80s. does this keep the fed in play >> i think it does i don't think the fed was never not in play. t but i urge caution we should. get too excited. i think that this shows the fed does need to stay on rate and they will keep them higher until they have gotten rid of persistent inflation fears >> these are the tree and six-month treasuries

what does that do to the price of those >> that's great news if you are trying to harvest yield. the yield will continue to be high those are yielding 5% plus, a great place to be. particularly if you don't have a strong view on where you want your risk to be, whether it's duration assets or tech stocks might as well hang out and clip 5% >> spraiexplain to me -- what ie overarching philosophy here? >> the play we came into the year was, we wanted to be between tech and growth stocks the ai revolution that became very personal this year proved that out the other answer was to take the fed's word, and we thought we had the opportunity to earn yield and to unwind. >> july is very different than it was in january, so what do

you do now >> i think the result is pretty much the same. ai is not going anywhere we're still in that space. it may take a break, but in all fairness, stocks need a breather from time to time, and that's what this looks like >> it highlights something that mike santoli is always beating the drum about, but tech stocks can do well in the midst of rising rates >> they have in the past and i wouldn't look for that to change >> what do you do between now and december maybe, you know, putting one fed hike back in play. >> we still like the short end of the curve, but we are seeing people take those profits and reinvest, particularly in some bonds. we stay away from high yield bonds. the default rates ticking up to 4% are worrisome but with credit conditions

tig tightening, spreads are super tight again. we think there is some real value added duration in the treasury market and the corporate space. >> it's interesting what you said you look at the s&p today, and we'll talk about netflix and tesla. discover financial is the worst stock. we're seeing the first ally talking about some trends, now a name like discover you wonder if credit quality is deteriorating and going to bubble up from these niche companies to something broadly more of a head wind. >> it kind of has to at some level we happreciate som of these companies can put out aggressive earnings expectations and be awarded in the stock price. and then they miss and get smacked hard for it. but the financial sector is usually the most sensitive to interest rates, given that's their business a lot of bank cfos and credit

companies looking tightly at the numbers. that will be harder to do. so i'm not too worried about some of those. i would worry more if we saw a broad set of defaults or broad misses, and we haven't seen that >> alex, thank you for your time existing home sales in june dropped to a five-month low. high mortgage rates are a major disincentive to sellers who don't want to give up their low ri rates. but now that is having a broader effect on the economy. steve leaseman has the latest. >> higher rates are impacting the consumer, changing everything from how consumers spend on cars to whether or how much home they buy take a look at five areas we looked at. 31% say they're more likely to pay off credit cards because of high rates

47% say they are less likely to get a new credit card. you can see the majorities less likely to buy a car. and you can see over here, if you don't mind my friend coming over this way. 43% of the poor working class, four more of these things compared to just 20% of the upper class, showing us that the poor are being more affected by the higher rates than the wealthier. let's go down here to mortgages. 27% delayed buying a home. 25% decided to rent. 15% delayed selling a home 11% bought a less expensive home look at this one, 9% say they have turned down a job requiring them to move, so that's a big issue. 43%, kelly, have been impacted by at least one of these again, if you look at the demographics and the breakdown, the younger are going to be more

affected by this than older people, 18 to 34-year-olds i can read you the data. thank you very much. 56% of the working class are affected by this go to 27% of the upper class younger folks, much more than older folks, and urban more than royal. it is beginning to hit home. and we wonder, kelly, when, if, and how this shows up. >> steve, it's such a big deal that you almost wonder, i don't want to sound crazy, but should the fed start cutting rates just to unlock mobility in the housing market and therefore in the broader economy? >> that's a great question whether or not that mobility right now is one of the problems they have with higher wages. we do have the work at home thing. we have a little more mobility when it comes to the technology. it's a great question. the thing that you said at the beginning in the introduction about the fact that homes are

not on the market is a very big deal let's say you wanted to move, your choices for moving are limited. i don't know about cutting rates, there is an opportunity to not hike any more it is very interesting what we see this data showing how much more poor people are affected by this than the wealthy. >> it's showing up in a macro way. steve, thank you very much steve liesman. still ahead, netflix having its worst day in over a year and tesla is taking the fight, beating estimates. we'll tell you what is dragging the duo down next. plus, 70% of the disposable income in this country belongs to baby boomers. the astonishing numbers behind the grand influencer economy ahead. here is a fwlimpbs of the markets. dow up 240 points.

but the nasdaq is the worst performer, down 1.5% the small cap are down percent and the s&p is down 17 back after this. this is spring semester at over 13,000 us school districts, which have become top targets for ransomware attacks. but there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. which is why thousands of schools like the fairfield-suisun unified school district switched to google tools for education. so they can focus on teaching and 22,000 students can focus on learning, knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ )

we've got one hope. knowing that their data ia bomb.e. 4... 3... 2...1... they just fired a starting gun.

welcome back

we have major earnings movers today, both to the down side and waking on the broader market, the nasdaq especially. let's unpack what happened and what it means for the rest of the names about to report the results. starting with netflix, down 9% right now after last night's earnings beat. subscriber growth was up 9%, nearly 6 million new users signing up as the company cracked down on password sharing. but revenue is a question park for the rest of the year john, welcome. >> thank you yeah, let's unpack the quarter so 2q was pretty positive. they had the big sub-beat, number one they had the beat on margins in earnings, and revenue was about 1% light versus expectations

and 3q, the guide was better than what we had in consensus at about 6 million. you had the big three cash flow raised to 3.5 billion, but the revenue guidance was about 2% below. tha executions were high going in they gained 8% in the last week. it was up 62% near-to-date going into last night. so expectation is high it's been running, but we raised our net ads to $500. >> we're not going to make too much of a move about the past week to the upside but we could probe a little bit on this issue. this is a result of the ad

supported tier >> it's driving, accelerating, albeit a little less than we thought. and then management thinks it will -- revenue will step up in 4q but it's mostly driving member growth so it's not driving revenue from members. so you got -- mostly it's driving members and so i think -- >> but why is it driving member growth, why wouldn't that drive revenue growth >> it is driving revenue growth, but not per member there's no impact on pricing i think that's where they were a little bit light in 2q and 3 q they're probably likely going to raise prices they could raise prices next

year, and i think next year's top line growth will be a little more balanced between user growth and pricing >> john, thank you very much good to have your reaction today. appreciate it. >> thank you moving on to tesla now where the stock is down about 8% today after more than doubling since jan 1. they also had a beat on the top and bottom line. operating margins were the worst in five quarters information left investors wanting more my next guest is stilling with his underperform rating on the stock. let's bring in the senior research analyst good to see you, tony. i think you have to acknowledge, and we were talking about this before, there's massive upward momentum in tesla shars regardless of the fundamentals

we are talking about what would reverse that here >> good afternoon, kelly thank you for having me on look, i think it's very difficult to know but what unves fors appear to be reacting to is there is continued uncertainty, and i think investors want more clarity. particularly they want more clarity on when margins may stabilize. i think it could be tough for the stock for the next several quarters i do think that there is a chance or a likelihood that customers will continue to drive the kind of growth it wants. and along with that price, those price declines, we'll see pressure on margins. >> i thought it was interesting that musk said when interest rates go up, prices have to come down we are not seeing that in the housing market

is this a case of tesla cutting prices because of interest rates in macro or because of ev oversupply and not enough consumer demand? >> i think it's more of the fact that tesla has only two products addressing only a small part of the market today there's really a temperature to now many of those vehicles tesla can sell right now they're selling more than a billion units a year in the model y. those are extraordinary numbers for any car. only two cars in the world that sell more than a million units so tess cli is doing fantastic they appear to be reaching saturation levels in terms of the number of people that want them so they need to come out with new models, which are a little

ways off the cyber truck is coming out later this year, but the next high volume cars aren't coming out until 2025 so if you have this limited product line up, then it's price. >> why didn't have that more to say last night about cyber control? >> tesla is planning a formal announcement at the send of september or october so they like to sort of do an unveiling and a reveal i don't think they wanted to front run. i'm not sure they have a good sense on what availability will be pricing will be quite expensive. they want to tell the whole story, the capabilities of the vehicle and the initial price all at one time. >> fair enough finally, 18.1% was automotive incentives where do you think that number

is going to be 24 months from now. >> look, i think it depends on how quickly tesla wanting to grow certainly, we think there is a chance that those numbers continue to go down. it depends on how quickly they can bring down their own costs and how quickly they will need to drive volume. so we're modeling margins, around it's up to tesla last year 1.8 million units this year. we think mr. chairmanens will go down, an selling maybe 2 million units, the margins can be blacktopped. >> your price target is? >> $150 for a share. >> thank you for your time today. still ahead, this former

financial adviser ran a ponzi scheme for over a decade a c nbc investigation is next. rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget at one of our over fifteen hundred locations. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. - [soldier] take a look at this! - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them.

- i love horses. (birds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you. welcome back to "the exchange." a former morgan stanley financial adviser is headed to federal prison after he admitted running a ponzi scheme for a decade how did he get away with it for so long? and why has morgan stanley resisted giving the victims their money back >> reporter: you are about to hear a bald faced law. >> how do we know it's not a ponzi scheme

>> it's not, the money is there. >> reporter: sit a ponzi scheme, and the money is not there why did you steal all the money? >> thank you have a good day. >> reporter: that's the man sentenced to prison for running a $7 million scam while he was a financial adviser for morgan stanley here in wilmington, north carolina >> are you sorry at all for what you did? >> thank you have a good day. >> reporter: kateland most lore than $ 1.5 million >> it's not so much that i hate him orangery with him. i'm just standing here with an open wound >> reporter: she planned to use the money from a divorce settlement to raise her two sons he stole from your boys. >> that's the wrors part >> reporter: she says she saw no reason not to trust gooden, who

was already handling her mother's account >> he seemed invested in our family, seems friendly and trustworthy. that and he worked for mon gan stanley. >> reporter: known as a liquidity access line of credit, the firm pitched it 2in videos like this. >> access the cash you need with the strength of morgan stanley behind you >> reporter: she was to transfer the money to him as her financial adviser. >> it was no risk, high yield, short-term bonds >> instead, shawn good was stealing the money >> shawn spent that money to drop up a lavish lifestyle >> european vacations, fancy stars, 800,000 in credit card bills. >> morgan stanley is lending movie to the victim of this scheme and that gets diverted

into shawn good's pocket >> reporter: all undefected by morgan stanley lou consults on arbitration cases but not involved with this one. >> the key here is the red flags very early on. as a supervisor, you are looking at the advisers that work for you, and determine whether or not whether their lifestyle matches their income >> reporter: morgan stanley, in a state, said -- >> reporter: except it wasn't morgan stanley that discovered the fraud. >> talk to us about the sentence, about morgan stanley >> reporter: law enforcement say it was investigators from the irs and the state. they were looking into good's

finances >> i want my money, and i want it in my hands >> reporter: that's when she decided to confront good and get it on tape >> reporter: the s.e.c. says communicating like that violates recordkeeping laws, a faith for fraud, and it's not the first time last year, morgan paid $125 million to the s.e.c. for off channel communications, and failure to reasonably supervise employees. in an industry crackdown that began in 2021. shawn good pled guilty to fraud

and money laundering, and his sentenciing may, he said the guilt and remorse is overwhelming caitlin anders were there, so were other victims but no one from morgan stanley was there. >> it doesn't surprise me that a person would steal money, because there are bad people what surprised me is that a corporate entity as big as rich and powerful as morgan stanley couldn't do the right thing. >> reporter: after our story first appeared on cnbc.com this morning, morgan stanley responded with a statement, noting -- saying the firm is working with all qulinlts

multiple victims say not only kid morgan resist paying them but the firm attempted to hold them to the loans that shawn good talked them into faking out. the judge ordered to pay $3.6 million in restitution they say shawn good stole around $7 million from clients. morgan stanley made about $11 billion in profits last year >> what are the avs people have to get funds back, other from him directly, which he may not have i don't know what the law would tell us about the likelihood of them getting compensated for what they lost >> it's limited. this is standard in any financial brokerage account. you're limited to arbitration and some of the clients have pursued that the advantage of that is it tends to go faster than going to court. the disadvantage is that the decision of the arbitration

panel is final there's no right of appeal punitive damages in arbitration are rare, and usually these settlements are confidential >> maybe it should be a warning sign to people if they are asked to borrow against their portfolios scott, thank you now to pippa stevens for a cnbc news update >> a bipartisan group of senators today introducing proposed legislation to leg late the ncaa's new name likeness policy, which allows college athletes to profit it would take several steps to increase transparency. senator blumenthal saying the legislation could be a milestone step forward police served a search warrant to a alleged witness in the tupac shakur murder

investigation. dwayne keith davis, also known as keith d police say he was one of the people in the suspect vehicle when the rapper was downed down in a 1996 drive-by shooting. broadway seems to have averted a strike the organizations representing theater stage employees announced they have reached an agreement avoiding a labor disruption similar to the one in hollywood. around 1500 workers, splanning 2 broadway shows, are covered by the agreement. >> pippa, thank you very much. coming up, the thcreator economy is expected to hit $4 trillion in the next few years we'll talk about it on the other side of this break

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

goli, taste your goals. matching your job description. welcome back to "the exchange." have you noticed the latest trend showing up all over social media and tv they're seeing more and more people over 50, 60, even 70 years old. abc just unveiled its first 71-year-old golden bachelor. martha stewart, gracing the cover of "sports illustrated" at 81 a new ad features older people and viking cruises caters to

this crowd why? >> as always, follow the money baby boomers control all expendable income and fitspendig 15 hours online every week there are of 5 million followers that featuring seniors. i'm joined by the cast of the retirement house welcome, everybody thanks for joining us. >> hi. >> audi, let me start with you where in the world did this idea for the tiktok account come from >> well, it started with wanting to create something that just, you know, reaching a huge amount of people. i just loved making content. i was doing tiktok marketing where i currently market

and i wanted to make an idea where -- that i haven't seen before there is a lot of contempt like all these houses we're all young people now we have old, hot people that just basically saw something that wasn't being created right at the time. >> let me ask you, i almost -- you're almost not safe to follow, because there's so many -- it's edgy, and there's a lot of -- who is watching the content? you guys are always professional actors, i should add >> most of us are, that's very true but our followers is say 18 to 24 but those people are taking into their grandparents and families, and it's growing and growing we're over 5.2 million followers now. we are out there, and we have

many loyal followers that want to be like us when they get older. >> i want to be like you now >> i get it. >> tom, thank you for clearing up a question how to pronounce sara v i do love the product. tom, what gave you the idea to partner with this group, and what does that partnership look like >> first, thank you so much, kelly, for having us at the end of the day, there's three reasons. there's a medical relevance to the use of moisturization. as we all age, our skin naturally starts to break down so a product like this makes sense for this generation. so we wanted to use this very much for that peer-to-peer piece. as we are all more active in social media, like it or not, our lives are put on camera every single day so this idea of having healthy

skin absolutely is something that, you know, really crossed a generation and at the end of the day, the retirement house community and the contempt they create, it's just fun in the aging. what we saw in one campaign is 80 million different users, liking the comments. and the amount of engagement in terms of contents, we knew we hit a home run and we love our partnership and we love the fun content that they create >> who else -- who is out there that you think -- bud light? who else do you think should be looking your way >> well, we have had contact with kentucky fried chicken, carnival cruise line is a big supporter. >> makes sense, given the demographic. this group, the retirement house, there's the old stars of the cooking world who are attracting followers i think you'll have a hard time

fending off the copy cats, don't you? >> honestly, i don't think so. i think that's something that we have is so special and it's not super easy to replicate. i know that there's individual creators but this -- i just feel like this group of people is so special, along with brendan and i creating the content i feel like it would be hard for people to copy this. >> can i ask how lucrative this is or is that a dangerous question >> i feel like that's something i'm going to stay away from. >> but you're making money on it >> it's happening. we're very thankful and love to partner with brands that are authentic with us. >> i don't want to make any guesses here, is sikts the new 30, is 70s the new 40? what do you think? >> well, it is for us. it's the new 80s

i mean, everybody wants to be us when they get older. we wanted to be us >> well, that's absolutely infectious i think that's what attracts people the most. thank you for brightening our day. great to talk with you we appreciate it >> thank you so much bye-bye. >> follow them on tiktok coming up in a week where ai headlines propelled microsoft and apple to all-time highs, what about google? the stock is down more than 4% this week. tas tt odt, next. (man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? (woman) what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (avo) now you can with once-weekly mounjaro.

mounjaro helps your body regulate blood sugar, and mounjaro can help decrease how much food you eat. 3 out of 4 people reached an a1c of less than 7%. plus people taking mounjaro lost up to 25 pounds. mounjaro is not for people with type 1 diabetes or children. don't take mounjaro, if you're allergic to it, you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer, or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop mounjaro, and call your doctor right away, if you have an allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, vision changes, or diabetic retinopathy. serious side effects may include pancreatitis and gallbladder problems. taking mounjaro with sulfonylurea or insulin raises low blood sugar risk. tell your doctor if you're nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. side effects include nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea which can cause dehydration and may worsen kidney problems. (woman) i can do diabetes differently with mounjaro. (avo) ask your doctor about once-weekly mounjaro.

i did have hearing aids from another company... i was just frustrated... i almost gave up. with miracle ear it's all about service. they're personable... they're friendly. i'm very happy with them. we provide you with a free lifetime of aftercare. meaning free checkups, cleanings, and adjustments. i see someone new... someone happy... it's really made a difference. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today.

this is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ welcome back a story in "the new york times" saying google is test ing to write news stories yesterday, we got the ai story about apple. earlier in the week, it was

microsoft. steve, welcome google has been left out of the rally in the past week or so i don't know if this move is what would get investors excited. >> if you go back to last week, they announced they put a bar on a chat bot with some new capabilities, sending shares up 4%, despite no montization plans for this this is something, people in our industry -- we have a job still for now, but the idea is, and i asked google about it, because worry for my own employment here a spokesperson says this is not meant to replace people. this is to help people become more productive, get more creative just like in a real newsroom i think that's how they are

trying try ing to pitch it. so it is happening on the more extreme level, too >> and i think it's been happening in sports a long time. you know, i can imagine if you want a stock market writeup, all you need to know -- if you want a three-sentence description, you can do this. i don't understand how the tools help people. us journalists don't necessarily have to be that creative it's like, here are the facts, there's layers of editors and headline writers and things like that so it's hazy to me what they are trying to do >> look, there's always this idea of -- i'll go back to earlier this year. basically, we can replace 7800 jobs with ai the george times had a great story earlier this week about an

at&t call center employee who feels like she's training her own ai replacement >> one of the first places that will replace >> google demonstrated software before we started talking about chat bots, dwgoogle demonstrate that so it's already being done whether or not these news corp rations and these other journalism companies that are ex-permenting with it, whether or not they want to do it or not. >> i've been hearing from big-time investors who think microsoft's $30 to use the tool will have hundreds of millions of users per year. 3 >> on top of the $36 they're already paying >> do you see dollar signs >> not yet >> that explains the gap in the share behavior

>> this has been the story all year, that microsoft has been ahead of google product wise and coming out with monteization plans. doesn't mean google is out of the game yet google has plenty of room for growth and a huge foot print with their services and apps and education, especially. so it's not over, it's not just because microsoft is a head game over >> maybe they should say you want google docks with ai, that's $30 a month >> steve, thank you very much. still ahead, my next guest s says jay powell has nailed it so far, but there is one thing the fed should not do from here. check out shares of s.a.p.,

they are missing this all happened midday, just afternoon eastern time shares are down 5% they did see a jump in cloud revenue, offsetting a decline in licensing revenue. overall full-year guidance that outlook, helps explain pressure year suing. wo worse in over a year that's next. re than just an inv, you're an owner. our financial planning tools and advice can help you prepare for today's longer retirement. hi mom. that's the value of ownership.

welcome back to "the exchange." today's surprise drop in jobless claims, my next guest believes chair powell nailed it so far. raising rates from here a mistake. joining me david zerbos. not many pound the table how right the fed is doing it for months. right after svb and i give you credit i won't go on and on. >> thanks, kelly the next break, big hiking rates next week. making a point in my last piece, what you referenced. i may disappoint many times. it's fallen on deaf ears, which

should have assets as long as they are, mortgages tightening up and housing market so strong. even though a little weakness there. >> they might say why do anything other than what we're doing? according to you, masterful. >> we have i'm fully onboard with masterful idea and fully onboard with another rate hike. we get a couple .2s, get in cpi before the september, i think could pause for sure .3 on either one or above, probably go again. i guess throw it out there as, hey, if inflation doesn't come down as fast as they're thinking, if we're not getting down to 3.9 to 3.6 by end of the year, why not consider, assets sales instead of another hike in september or another set of hikes. people out there think hthey're

going to 6% or 6.5%. they're not optimistic i throw it out there able's things stabilized and long end trading well and giving opportunity to prep if needed. i don't think so if needed, figure it ounchts investors hate talking about it. no correlation i think the fed hates it tried to shrink in 2019 saw the repo crisis. i don't know i think everyone's afraid of it. >> you're right. i'm just, i've been counting -- look, i used to write about this stuff back in 2014, '15 lifting off on my belief assets sales were part of the program look, good calls and bad calls i certainly thought they would consider asset sales more aggressively and i don't think anyone wants mortgages on the

books. convinced by big banks raising rates was a little bit more, just a little bit more traditional, easier. by the way, given what's happened with bank earnings in the latest round. >> bingo. >> banks on the bait on the bait. won it in this really big. >> no. exactly right. missed it a couple months ago. you made the call. thought the reason wasn't more fallout from rate hikes a la 1994 and orange county bankruptcy all on the fed. h who's taking losses? month buyers mortgage rates spike high perp bad for everybody. >> play devil's advocate a little on that, kelly. the current group on mortgage right now 5.5. got a few of those not many more 1.5s and 2s i pointed out in my note last week, $300 million to $4 million

to $1 billion. not a lot. letting three or four billion go instead of a couple rate hikes, i think it's worth talking about. those are high coupon mortgages trading at $90 price seasoned paper that the market would love to get their hands on. i think could nuance this. look, a fun debate a lot of clients, like to write about it and get people riled up eve over the summer. nice calls on the svp thing. other piles of work, asset sale call one of those things did not come to fruition overall. >> yeah. again sort of what they should do and what we, what's right appreciate your writing a little of both. dave, thanks for your time today. >> always a pleasure. >> joining me from jefferies.

that does it for us, everybody. tyler's getting ready for "power lunch" and i will join h on im other side of this break dow's up 224 harnessing data-driven insights and boundless curiosity. we dissect the market from every angle. helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible. because investing isn't one size fits all. allspring. purposefully divergent. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

. hi, everybody. wack to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen big day for earnings reporting and moving markets tesla, netflix, johnson and johnson. some of the names we're going to dig into big time this hour. plus, labor pains seemingly everywhere teamsters all on strike, actors, writers, or threatening. why is the economy going through this and how big a disruption could it pose to our economy >> first, a check on the facts as major averages are split. dow's up 211 points. nasdaq down 19, 45.6 and